5 Luis Ajamil New York Cruise Symposium June 2011
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MEGA-TRENDS INFRASTRUCTURE Luis Ajamil Bermello, Ajamil & Partners June 2011
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Transcript of 5 Luis Ajamil New York Cruise Symposium June 2011
MEGA-TRENDSINFRASTRUCTURE
Luis AjamilBermello, Ajamil & Partners
June 2011
Cruise lines are thinking short-term and operationally
As we look at mega-trends in facilities and infrastructure, ports and cities need to
think long-term and strategically
Yesterday…………..
• Line executives indicated that the future growth will occur when …….
• Consumer demand• New offerings besides the fall leaves
• Profitability –• Relative to other regions
• Strength of the currencies
• More ships to allow further deployment
What and when will it take?
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 150
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 Market and growth
Worldwide expansion
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Worldwide and regional expansionConventional cruise passengers, 1995 - 2009
Sources: CLIA, PSA, B&A, 2010
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Asia Europe North America
Pa
sse
ng
ers
('0
00
)
North American capacity placement
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
Caribbean
Source: B&A, 2009.
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
17.5%
20.0%
22.5%
N.A. Europe
U.S. recession
North American vs. European growth
9/11+ Iraq War
European cruise market growth
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
2012
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
Bed Capacity (Demand) Market Capacity (Supply)
Beds
Pass
engers
Top 25 worldwide attractions
Mag
ic K
ing
dom
Dis
neyla
nd
Glo
bal cr
uis
ein
du
stry
Tokyo D
isn
eyla
nd
Eu
roD
isn
ey
Dis
ney S
ea
EPC
OT
Dis
neys
Holly
wood
Stu
...
Dis
ney A
nim
al K
ing
dom
Un
ivers
al S
tud
ios
Everl
an
d
Dis
ney C
alif
orn
ia A
dve..
.
Seaw
orl
d
Un
ivers
al S
tud
ios
Oce
an
Park
Nag
ash
ima Isl
an
d S
pa
Isla
nd
s of
Ad
ven
ture
Hon
g K
on
g D
isn
eyla
nd
Yokoh
am
a H
akkejim
ma
Un
ivers
al S
tud
ios
Lott
e W
orl
d
Eu
rop
a P
ark
SeaW
orl
d
Bu
sch
Gard
en
s
De E
ftelin
g
Tiv
oli
Gard
en
s
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
36 million
Strategic industry growth factors
FACTORS CONSTRAINT
PASSENGERS >+40 M (NA only annual)
SHIPS YES
SHIP YARDS 12-14 SHIPS/YR
CAPITAL / PROFITABILITY NO
MANAGEMENT CAPACITY NO
CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS YES and NO
FUEL YES (NO)
ITINERARIES EXPANSION
WARM WEATHER PORTS EXPANSION
COMPETITION FEW COMPANIES
Vessel deliveries
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2 Long-term vision
What’s realistic?
• A little or no-growth vision
• A moderate growth vision• Mediterranean maturity
• Return of the US economy
• Capital investments have to last for the long-term
• Take years to execute
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
South Florida homeports
MIAMI
PORT EVERGLADES
Consolidation New growthFormative years
3 Ships
Average passengers per ship by year of construction
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1427
1782
1464
1833
2098 20772200
2703 27142845
3456
On average cruise ships are increasing 500 passengers every three years
Fleet size projections
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
>2500 passengers >3000 passengers >4000 passengers
4 Homeports
Developing future infrastructure
• CNE region has already put in a considerable effort… • NYC homeport berths – Manhattan and Brooklyn• Boston, Portland• Saint John – Cruise reception facilities• Halifax – Cruise Pier redevelopment• Sydney, Charlottetown, etc. with new berth and reception
facilities…
• BUT… to compete globally the region must focus on: • Marine infrastructure to accommodate future vessels• Consistent across the region
• Soft support infrastructure to compete for future passengers• Diverse in each destination• Consistent in its quality and delivery
Homeport passenger movements – small ships
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:0
0
10:3
0
11:0
0
11:3
0
12:0
0
12:3
0
13:0
0
13:3
0
14:0
0
14:3
0
15:0
0
15:3
0
16:0
0
16:3
0
17:0
00
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
DISEMBARKING ARRIVING EMBARKING
TIM
E
SE
PA
RA
TIO
NEMBARKATION
DISEMBARKATION
Homeport passenger movements - today
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30
10:0
0
10:3
0
11:0
0
11:3
0
12:0
0
12:3
0
13:0
0
13:3
0
14:0
0
14:3
0
15:0
0
15:3
0
16:0
0
16:3
0
17:0
00
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
DISEMBARKING ARRIVING EMBARKING
EMBARKATIONDIS
EMBARKATION
TEMPORARYFACILITY
CONVERSION OF EXISTINGBUILDING
NEW FACILITY
JOINTDEVELOPMENT
The evolution of the cruise terminal
The future terminal
• Focus on processing passengers at the least cost
• Lines expect better functioning terminals• Larger
• More comfort
• Two level operations
• Multiple gangways
• Elevators, escalators, etc
Traditional terminal concept
PARKING
GTA
TT
PARKING
GTA
TT
PARKING
GTA
TT
Apron
Combined terminal / off-site transportation
Apron
GTA
TT
PARKING
Provisioning
GTA /Parking
Quad Terminal Provisioning
Existing Cargo Area
Parking C
Alternative
Central terminal alternatives
5 Set performance standards
Passenger experience
Facilities without operational targets…
• Will not work anymore• Ships are too big
• Too many passengers
• There is no such thing as a small ship or large ship port• The complexity of the fleet
• The introduction of multiple class vessels
• The mobility of the fleet
• All ports must be flexible to support universal designs
Performance standards
• Passenger experience• Time
• Flow
• Queues
• Spaciousness
• Direction
• Friendliness
• Cruise company• Cost
• Efficiency
• Labor
• Turn around time
• Passenger experience
• Destination• Revenues and costs
• Volumes
Time to processLevels of service
Level of service
Total check-in Total disembark
LOS A 10 min 20 min
LOS B 15 min 30 min
LOS C 20 min 40 min
LOS D 25 min 50 min
LOS E 30 min 60 min
LOS F >30 min >60 min
Bermello, Ajamil & Partners
LOS – time to process
Walking distancesLevels of service
Level of service
Feet Meters
LOS A <500 <150
LOS B 1,500 500
LOS C 2,500 800
LOS D 3,000 1,000
LOS E 4,000 1,300
LOS F >5,000 1,600
Bermello, Ajamil & Partners
LOS – walking distances
Corridor capacity (passengers per minute)Levels of service
Level of service
Corridor width in meters
2 3 4 4.5 5 6 6.5
LOS A 66 99 132 165 198 231 264
LOS B 77 115 154 192 231 269 308
LOS C 88 132 176 220 264 308 352
LOS D 98 146 195 244 293 342 390
LOS E 110 164 219 274 329 384 438
LOS F 124 185 247 309 371 433 494
Bermello, Ajamil & Partners
LOS - corridor capacity
Spaciousness
Level of service (LOS) Metric
LOS A 1.3 mt2 per person or greater
LOS B 1.0-1.3 mt2 per person
LOS C 0.7-1.0 mt2 per person
LOS D 0.3-0.7 mt2 per person
LOS E 0.2-0.3 mt2 per person
LOS F 0.2 mt2 per person or less
LOS - Queuing / waiting capacity
6 Ports-of-call evolution
How has other regions re-invented themselves?
• Different developments
• Evolving ideas
• From a simple pier to………………
St Thomas
St Thomas
Ensenada
Ensenada Cruise Port Village
Ensenada Cruise Port Village
Punta Langosta, Cozumel, Mexico
Puerta Maya, Cozumel, Mexico
St. Maarten Cruise Port
Disney’s Castaway Cay
Costa Maya, Mahaual, Mexico
Costa Maya
Grand Turk Cruise center
GTCC
Roatan, Royal Caribbean
Mahogany Bay, Roatan Carnival
Falmouth, Jamaica
Falmouth
Percent of passengers taking toursC
ost
a R
ica
Cart
agena
Guate
mala
Beliz
e
Dom
inic
a
Hondura
s
St
Luci
a
Aca
pulc
o
Jam
aic
a
Caym
an Isl
ands
Nic
ara
gua
StK
itts
and N
evi
s
Barb
ados
Gre
nada
Cura
cao
Ense
nada
Aru
ba
Tri
ndia
d a
nd T
obago
US V
irgin
Isl
ands
Cozu
mel
Huatu
lco
St
Vin
cent
/ G
rena...
Dom
inic
an R
epublic
Antigua / B
arb
uda
Cabo S
an L
uca
s
St
Maart
en
Baham
as
Puert
o R
ico
Turk
s and C
aic
os
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
55.00%
60.00%
65.00%
70.00%
75.00%
80.00%
Total expenditure per passenger
US V
irgin
Isl
ands
St
Maart
en
Cozu
mel
Puert
o R
ico
St
Kitts
and N
evi
s
Cart
agena
Jam
aic
a
Caym
an Isl
ands
Beliz
e
Aca
pulc
o
Aru
ba
Baham
as
Cura
cao
Cabo S
an L
uca
s
Antigua / B
arb
uda
Hondura
s
Barb
ados
St
Luci
a
Cost
a R
ica
Turk
s and C
aic
os
Guate
mala
Ense
nada
Huatu
lco
Gre
nada
Tri
nid
ad a
nd T
obago
Dom
inic
a
Dom
inic
an R
epublic
Nic
ara
gua
St
Vin
cent
/ G
renad...$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
$180.00
$200.00
7 Mega-trends
Keys
• Think strategically• Community issues• Port’s mission• Short – term solutions without a strategic plan will be short lived
and more expensive
• Think financially• How to finance the project• Stay competitive with the industry• Not considering pricing in design will create problems
• Think functionally• Listen to your users and stakeholders
• Think globally – • Comparing yourself against your neighbor – this is a global
business
• Focus on all parts of the business• Operations• Third party costs to the lines
Mega-trends
• Plan for the long-term
• Execute for the mid-term
• Plan for the large ships
• Improve the destination
• Create performance standards
• Improve the passenger experience
• New creative offerings
MEGA-TRENDSINFRASTRUCTURE
Luis AjamilBermello, Ajamil & Partners
June 2011
