5 Job Prospects

Job Prospects for College Graduates: 2006-2016

Employment Outlook: 2006-16

2006-2016

Roger J. MoncarzSupervisory Economist

Bureau of Labor StatisticsOffice of Occupational Statistics and Employment

Projections

Employment projections background

Job prospects published since 1949—spurred by the 1944 GI Bill of Rights

Biennial projections done for 10 years in the futurethe future

2006-2016 projections cover over 700 occupations and 200 industries

Employment projections products

Long-term employment forecasts by industry and occupation

Career guidance publications

Technical materials—replacement rates, education or training categories, and more

Users and uses

Students and career counselors—career guidance

Adult career changers—career information

Researchers

Policy makers

State LMI programs—national projections used to develop state and area projections

Agenda

MethodsPopulation and Labor ForceEconomic GrowthIndustry GrowthOccupational GrowthJob Outlook by Education

Projections process

LaborForce

OccupationalDemand

“Macro Model,” demographic, fiscal Industry output,

Staffing pattern ratio analyses, industry-specific studies, staff expertise

Population, labor force, participation rate trends

AggregateEconomy

IndustryOutput

IndustryEmployment

CommodityFinal

Demand

demographic, fiscal and monetary policy, foreign economies, energy prices

Economic census, annual economic surveys, other data sources

BEA benchmark-year input-output tables, BLS time-series estimates

sector wage rates, technological change


Population and Labor Force GrowthPopulation and Labor Force Growth

Population and labor force

Millions of persons

201229

164

251

134151 164

1996 2006 2016, 1996 2006 2016,

Population Labor force

Source: Bureau of Labor Statisticsprojectedprojected

2.12.4

Labor force growth rate

Annual rates of change (percent)

0.81.21.31.3

1956-66 1966-76 1976-86 1986-96 1996-2006 2006-16,projected

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Labor force participation rates

Percent

73.572.3

85.5

80

100

Total

Men


59.4 59.2

36.9

0

20

40

60

1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016,

Total

Women

projected

199960%

Labor force share by age group

Percent distribution1996

162527

2012

2006

152224

23

17

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: May not sum to 100 due to rounding

16 – 24

25 – 34

35 – 44

45 – 54

55 and older

Projected 2016

132321

21

23

Age group

Labor force change by age group

Change in thousands of people, projected 2006-16

7,304

4,582Age 65 and over

Age 55 to 64


-1,542

4,716

-2,194

-63 Age 45 to 54

Age 35 to 44

Age 25 to 34

Age 16 to 24

Labor force change by age group

Percent change, projected 2006-16

Age 65 and over

55 to 64 37

84


55 to 64

45 to 54

35 to 44

25 to 34

16 to 24 -7

15

-6

0

37

Labor force growth by race

13

Change in millions, projected 2006-16

7

31

2

Asian Black Other White Total


Labor force growth by race

3230


96

16

Asian Black Other White Total


Labor force share by race

Percent distribution

20062411


Black

Asian

All other

White

82

Projected 2016

80

3512

Labor force growth by ethnic origin

76

Change in millions, projected 2006-16

Hispanic Non-Hispanic

Labor force growth by ethnic origin

30


5

Hispanic Non-Hispanic

14 2006

Labor force share by ethnicity

Percent distribution

86

84

16Projected 2016


Hispanic

Non-Hispanic


Economic GrowthEconomic Growth

Real GDP growth

2.83.1

2.93.3

2.9

4.2

3.6

Annual rates of change (percent)

1946-56 1956-66 1966-76 1976-86 1986-96 1996-2006 2006-16,


projected

Real GDP change by component

Annual rate of change (percent)

9.1

3 94.5 4.5

5.5

1986-96 1996-2006 Projected 2006-16


-6.1

2.9 3.9

1.2

-7.6

3.14.5

2.4

-4.2

2.8 3.11.4

InvestmentExports

Imports

GovernmentPersonal

Consumption Expenditures

67.2 69.9 70.1

1986-96 1996-2006 Projected 2006-16

Nominal GDP by component

Percent of GDP

11.1

-12.3

15.9 18.111.1

-16.9

16.7 19.214.0

-18.5

16.6 17.8

Personal Consumption Expenditures

InvestmentExports

Imports

Government


Unemployment rate

5 05.4

7.07.7

Percent

5.04.63.84.1

1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016,


projection assumption

2.8

2.2

2.7

Inflation rate


1986-96 1996-2006 2006-16,


projected

2.6

2.2

Productivity growth rate


1.5

1986-96 1996-2006 2006-16,


projected


Industry GrowthIndustry Growth

Total employment

Millions of jobs

151138

166 153

2006 2016, 2006 2016,Projected

Total employment Wage and salary employment


Projected

Employment and output, 2006

Percent of totals

7667

Nonagriculture wage and salary employmentNominal nonagriculture output


15

28

Goods-producing Service-providing

4,8572,987

2,4261,829

1,452R t il t d

Health care and social assistance State and local government

Professional and business services Financial activities

Manufacturing

Nominal output by industry sector, 2006

Billions of dollars

1,2391,165

1,046912874

693534

466425

203

1,386

Educational services Utilities Mining

Other services Transportation and warehousing

Leisure and hospitality Federal Government

Information Wholesale trade

Construction Retail trade


Service-providingGoods-producing

3 43.63.73.8

5.05.3Information

Wholesale tradeRetail trade

Financial activitiesHealth care and social assistance

Professional and business services

Real output growth by industry sector

Annual rate (percent), projected 2006-16

0.6

2.12.32.4

2.93.4

0.91.0

1.42.02.0

Professional and business servicesTransportation and warehousing

ManufacturingOther services

Leisure and hospitalityState and local government

Educational services, privateConstruction

MiningUtilities

Federal Government



19,26217,552

15,31914,920

14 197ManufacturingHealth care and social assistance

Retail tradeProfessional and business services

State and Local Government

Wage and salary jobs by industry sector

Thousands of jobs, 2006

14,19713,143

8,3637,689

6,2355,898

4,4663,0552,9182,728

619549Utilities

MiningFederal Government

Educational services, privateInformation

Transportation and warehousingWholesale trade

Other servicesConstruction

Financial activitiesLeisure and hospitality

Manufacturing



843

1,4341,207

4,0341,873

4,092

Oth iFinancial activities

State and local governmentLeisure and hospitality

Health care and social assistanceProfessional and business services

Numeric change in wage and salary employment by industry sector

Thousands of jobs, projected 2006-16

687609

496429

212-10-31

-103-1,503

781843

ManufacturingFederal Government

UtilitiesMining

InformationWholesale trade

Transportation and warehousingEducational services, private

Retail tradeConstruction

Other services



1 31.31.4

1.92.1

2.4 Health care and social assistance Professional and business services

Educational services Financial activities

Leisure and hospitalityOth i

Growth rate for wage and salary employment by industry sector

Annual rate (percent), projected 2006-16

-1.1

0.70.7

1.01.1

1.3

-0.6-0.4

-0.20.4

0.7

Other services Transportation and warehousing

Construction State and local government

Wholesale trade Information Retail trade

Mining Federal Government

Utilities Manufacturing




Occupational GrowthOccupational Growth

Employment by major occupational group

Millions of jobs, 2006

30

29

24Office and administrative support

Service

Professional and related


16

15

11

10

8

6

1Farming, fishing, and forestry

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Construction and extraction

Transportation and material moving

Production

Management, business, and financial

Sales and related

17

10

17


Service


Percent change in employment by major occupational group


-5

-3

5

7

8

9

9

Production

Farming, fishing, and forestry


Office and administrative support

Sales and related



Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Average, all occupations=10%

Numeric change in employment by major occupational group


4,830

1,745

4,970


Service



1,596

1,218

785

550

462

-29

-528Production





Sales and related




Service

Job openings by major occupational group

Millions of jobs, projected 2006-16

12,218

7,424

11,067




Production



Sales and related

From growth

From replacement needs


251

1,502

2,249

2,323

2,952

4,575

6,171

Percent growth in employment by detailed occupation

51

49

53

Home health aides

Personal and home care aides

Network systems and data communicationsanalysts

Percent change, projected 2006-16Median

annual wages, May 2006

$64,600

17,77019,420

45

41

41

40

35

35

34Substance abuse and behavioral disordercounselors

Veternarians

Medical assistants

Makeup artists, theatrical and performance

Professional financial advisors

Veterinary technologists and technicians

Computer software engineers, applications


79,78026,780

66,120

31,820

26,290

71,990

34,040

Numeric growth in employment by detailed occupation

557

545

587

C bi d f d ti d iCustomer service representatives

Retail salespersons

Registered nurses

Thousands of jobs, projected 2006-16Median annual wages,

May 2006

$57,28019,76028,330

452

404

389

384

382

345

264Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendents

Janitors and cleaners, except maids andhousekeeping cleaners

Postsecondary teachers

Home health aides

Personal and home care aides

Office clerks, general

Combined food preparation and servingworkers, including fast food


15,050

23,710

17,77019,420

56,120

19,930

22,180

C t i t ti

Waiters and waitresses

Cashiers, except gaming

Retail salespersons

Job openings by detailed occupation

Thousands of job openings, projected 2006-16Median annual wages,

May 2006

$19,760

28 330

16,810

14,850

1,935

1,537

1,664

Postsecondary teachers

Janitors and cleaners

Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers,hand

Food preparation and serving workers

Office clerks, general

Registered nurses

Customer service representatives

From growth From replacement needs


15,050

21,220

19,930

56,120

23,710

57,280

28,330

662

802

823

927

991

1,001

1,158

-118

-131

-104 Packers and packagers, hand

Cashiers, except gaming

Stock clerks and order fillers

Occupations with the largest employment declines


-39

-40

-57

-63

-66

-90

-97

Telemarketers

Cutting, punching, and press machine operators

Electrical and electronic equipmentassemblers

Sewing machine operators

Order clerks

Farmers and ranchers

File clerks


Job Outlook by EducationEducation

Job Outlook by Education

Students need to identifybest job prospectst i i dtraining needs

Job Outlook by Education

MethodsJob opportunities by educational attainmenteducational attainmentJob opportunities in healthcare-related occupations

Themes

Good opportunities available with and without collegeProspects depend on the Prospects depend on the occupation you chooseTraining increases choices and earnings

Method

Demand for goods and services—translates into job growth and declineJ b th i d t t Job growth + openings due to net replacements =

Opportunities for workers new to an occupation

Method

For each occupation, we multiplied job openings by the percent of workers with a given education level…but only when that level was sufficiently common.

Education clusters% high school

% some college

% college

High school jobs > 60% < 20% < 20%

High school / Some college jobs > 20% > 20% < 20%g g j

Some college jobs <20% > 60% < 20%

High school / some college / college jobs

> 20% > 20% > 20%

Some college / college jobs < 20% > 20% > 20%

College jobs < 20% < 20% > 60%

Method

Assumption: None of the openings in an occupation will be an educational category that is not significant

Makes sense: we want to capture what education is usually required

Limitations

No educational upgrading over the projections decade

N f th i i ti None of the openings in an occupation will be an educational category that is not significant

Replacement needs are underestimated by our method

Registered nurses

From 2006-2016:

Job growth: 587,000

Replacement needs: 413,000

1 million opportunities for new nurses

Registered nurses

Opportunities for new entrants=1,000,795

High school—1%Some college 43%Some college—43%College—56%

Openings for high school=0Opening for some college=432,004Openings for college graduates=568,791

Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants

From 2006-2016:

Job growth: 264,000

Replacement needs: 130,000

393 thousand opportunities for new entrants

Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants

Opportunities for new entrants=393,153

High school—55%Some college—37%Some college—37%College—8%

Openings for high school=234,606Opening for some college=158,546Openings for college graduates=0

Overall job outlook by education, 2006-16

50.7 million projected job openings due to growth and net replacements from 2006-16

– 13.5 million college openings– 15.5 million some college openings– 21.7 million high school openings

Occupations with the most college openings, 2006-16

Occupation HS SC C Cluster

2006 OES

Median Wages

College openings

Postsecondary teachers 0% 5% 95% C $56,120 661,783

Registered nurses 1% 43% 56% SC/C $57,280 568,791

Elementary school teachers, except special education 0% 5% 95% C $45,570 545,440

Retail salespersons 38% 36% 25% HS/SC/C $19,760 487,030

Accountants and auditors 4% 17% 79% C $54,630 449,766

Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education 1% 3% 96% C $47,740 367,529

Computer software engineers, applications 2% 13% 85% C $79,780 299,638

Management analysts 7% 16% 77% C $68,050 264,414

General and operations managers 20% 32% 48% SC/C $85,230 262,733

Customer service representatives 34% 44% 22% HS/SC/C $28,330 255,208

Occupations with the most some college openings, 2006-16

Occupation HS SC C Cluster2006 OES

MedianWages

SC Openings

Retail salespersons 38% 36% 25% HS/SC/C $19,760 705,603

Waiters and waitresses 51% 35% 14% HS/SC $14,850 627,476

Office clerks, general 36% 45% 19% HS/SC $23,710 551,976

Customer service representatives 34% 44% 22% HS/SC/C $28,330 511,463

Cashiers, except gaming 63% 28% 10% HS/SC $16,810 509,280


Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 34% 50% 16% HS/SC $30,560 355,722

Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 33% 49% 18% HS/SC $37,240 296,233

Child care workers 48% 38% 14% HS/SC $17,630 285,935

Receptionists and information clerks 42% 46% 13% HS/SC $22,900 254,929

Occupations with the most high school openings, 2006-16


MedianWages

HSOpenings

Cashiers, except gaming 63% 28% 10% HS/SC $16,810 1,155,087

Waiters and waitresses 51% 35% 14% HS/SC $14,850 909,639

Retail salespersons 38% 36% 25%HS/SC/C $19,760 742,573

Combined food preparation and serving workers,

including fast food 71% 24% 5% HS/SC $15,050 694,210

Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 75% 20% 4% HS/SC $19,930 631,180

Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand 72% 24% 5% HS/SC $21,220 617,713

Maids and housekeeping cleaners 81% 15% 5% HS $17,580 462,729

Food preparation workers 74% 19% 7% HS $17,410 450,857

Office clerks, general 36% 45% 19% HS/SC $23,710 438,820

Counter attendants, cafeteria, food concession, and coffee shop 73% 19% 8% HS $16,130 423,904

Healthcare occupations

Standard Occupational Classification(SOC)

29-0000 Healthcare practitioner and technical occupationstechnical occupations31-0000 Healthcare support occupationsOther medical- and health-related occupations, including management, sales, and administrative

Projected Job Openings by Group, 2006-16

GroupJob openings

Percent of all job openings

Office and administrative support 7 212 134 14%support 7,212,134 14%

Healthcare 5,337,654 11%Education, training, and library 3,050,312 6%

Construction 2,249,268 4%

Computer 1,524,112 3%

Most openings in healthcare, 2006-16


Median Wages

Job openings

Registered nurses 1% 43% 56% SC/C $57,280 1,000,795

Personal and home care aides 58% 32% 10% HS/SC $17,770 518,549

H h lth id 55% 37% 7% HS/SC $19 420 454 075Home health aides 55% 37% 7% HS/SC $19,420 454,075

Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 55% 37% 7% HS/SC $22,180 393,153

Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 21% 72% 7% HS/SC $36,550 309,218

Physicians and surgeons 0% 0% 100% C ≥$145,600 204,395

Medical assistants 31% 59% 10% HS/SC $26,290 199,399

Pharmacy technicians 27% 57% 16% HS/SC $25,630 178,397

Medical secretaries 33% 49% 18% HS/SC $28,090 133,244

Dental assistants 34% 57% 9% HS/SC $30,220 130,292

Highest earning healthcare occupations (2006)

Occupation HS SC C Cluster2006

OES median Wages

Physicians and surgeons 0% 0% 100% C ≥$145,600

Orthodontists 0% 0% 100% C ≥$145 600Orthodontists 0% 0% 100% C ≥$145,600

Oral and maxillofacial surgeons 0% 0% 100% C ≥$145,600

Prosthodontists 0% 0% 100% C ≥$145,600

Dentists, general 0% 0% 100% C $132,140

Podiatrists -- -- 99% C $108,220

Pharmacists 0% 3% 97% C $94,520

Optometrists 0% 0% 100% C $91,040

Physician assistants 8% 25% 67% SC/C $74,980

Biomedical engineers 0% 18% 76% C $73,930

Highest earning health care occupations (2006)

Occupation HS SC C Cluster2006 OES Median

Wages

Medical and health services managers 11% 32% 57% SC/C $73,340

Veterinarians 0% 0% 100% C $71,990

Health and safety engineers, except mining safety engineers and inspectors 8% 18% 74% C $66,290

Physical therapists 2% 9% 89% C $66,200

Radiation therapists -- 55% 42% SC/C $66,170

Chiropractors -- -- 97% C $65,220

Dental hygienists 3% 64% 33% SC/C $62,800

Nuclear medicine technologists 7% 68% 25% SC/C $62,300

Medical scientists, except epidemiologists -- -- 99% C $61,680

Occupational therapists -- 9% 90% C $60,470

Healthcare occupations with the most college openings, 2006-16


Median Wages

Collegeopenings


Physicians and surgeons 0% 0% 100% C ≥$145,600 204,395

Pharmacists 0% 3% 97% C $94,520 95,050

Physical therapists 2% 9% 89% C $66,200 67,641

Mental health and substance abuse social workers 7% 16% 77% C $35,410 62,354

Medical and health services managers 11% 32% 57% SC/C $73,340 58,744

Medical and public health social workers 7% 16% 77% C $43,040 55,954

Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors 21% 32% 47% HS/SC/C $25,910 50,628

Medical scientists, except epidemiologists -- -- 99% C $61,680 44,716

Dentists, general 0% 0% 100% C $132,140 39,240

Healthcare occupations with the most some college openings, 2006-16


Median Wages

SC Openings




Home health aides 55% 37% 7% HS/SC $19,420 183,114

Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 55% 37% 7% HS/SC $22,180 158,546





Emergency medical technicians and paramedics 18% 68% 14% SC $27,070 61,601

Healthcare occupations with the most high school openings, 2006-16

Occupation HS SC C Cluster

2006 OES

Median Wages

HS Openings


Home health aides 55% 37% 7% HS/SC $19,420 270,961

Nursing aides, orderlies, and d % 3 % % HS/SC $22 180 234 606attendants 55% 37% 7% HS/SC $22,180 234,606






Medical records and health information technicians 37% 51% 12% HS/SC $28,030 31,776

Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors 21% 32% 47%

HS/SC/C $25,910 22,424

Education pays

Unemployment rate in 2007 Median weekly earnings in 2007

1,427

$1,497

1 1651 8

1.4

1.3

Master’s degree

Professional degree

Doctoral degree

1,165

987

740

683

604

428

1.8

2.2

3.0

3.8

4.4

7.1

Master s degree

Bachelor’s degree

Associate degree

Some college, no degree

High school graduate

Less than a high school diploma

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

Education and training categories

• Most significant source of education and training• Education or training needed by g ymost workers to become fully qualified• Based on data, interviews, legalrequirements, and other research

Education and training categories

1. First professional degree2. Doctoral degree3. Master’s degree4. Bachelor’s or higher degree, plus work experienceexperience5. Bachelor’s degree6. Associate degree7. Postsecondary vocational award8. Work experience in a related occupation9. Long-term on-the-job training10. Moderate-term on-the-job training11. Short-term on-the-job training

Numeric growth in employment by education or training category


3,074

592

1,122

Bachelor's degree

Bachelor's degree or higher, plus workexperience

Graduate degree


4,613

2,018

711

1,310

1,072

1,087

,

Short-term on-the-job training

Moderate-term on-the-job training

Long-term on-the-job training

Work experience in related occupation

Postsecondary vocational award

Associate degree

16.5

9.1

18.2

Bachelor's degree

Bachelor's degree or higher, plus workexperience

Graduate degree

Percent growth in employment by education or training category


8.8

7.4

6.2

9.0

13.6

18.7




Work experience in related occupation


Associate degree

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Average, all occupations=10%

Percent distribution of employment by education or training category

4.1 4.312.3

3.9

5.2

34.72006

Graduate degree

Bachelor’s or higher degree, plus work experience

9.77.618.1

Projected 2016

plus work experience

Bachelor’s degree

Associate degree


Work experience in a related occupation




4.4 4.313.0

4.2

5.49.6

7.317.6

34.3

Contact information:

Roger MoncarzE il bl


E-mail: [email protected]: 202-691-5694www.bls.gov/emp

5 Job Prospects

Career

Transcript of 5 Job Prospects