Five app stores under the microscope

Stuart Dredge

Who am I?

• UK journalist covering mobile, games and digital entertainment

• Mobile Entertainment / Music Ally• Pocket Gamer / Recombu / What Mobile• iPhone Games Bulletin• First job in games – Official Dreamcast Magazine• I wouldn’t get a job as a motivational speaker

Key ideas for today

• Is there life beyond iPhone and its App Store?– Two contenders: Android and BlackBerry

• Old handheld dogs learning new digital tricks– PSP Minis and DSiWare

• The new breed of digital games developers– Cross-platform, independent, own-IP...

App Store – Key figures

• Addressable base of 50 million• 100k apps available (20k games)• More than 2bn downloads so far• iPhone games market worth $2.8bn by 2014 (DFC)• Avg user has spent $80 on 65 apps (AppsFire)• Avg user downloads 10/18 apps a month (AdMob)• 90% browse and download on the device (AdMob)• 30-day retention rate for games – 72% (Flurry)

– But 90-day retention rate is 16%

App Store Games genre mix

Source: Mobclix (Oct 2009)

App Store Top 100 Paid Games analysis (2-Nov-09)

• Own-IP is popular – 58% of Top 100 Paid chart• Pricing pressure – Avg price in Top 100 is $2.89

– But avg price in Top 10 is $2.09 (and $1.21 without Rock Band)– 45 games cost $0.99

• Rapid churn – 59% of Top 100 released since August• Level playing field – 47% indie, 38% publishers

– EA has 13 titles in Top 100, Gameloft has 12– Glu, DChoc, Tapulous have 3 apiece

App Store Top 100 Paid Games - Brand

App Store Top 100 Paid Games - Price

App Store Top 100 Paid Games - Source

App Store – Key trends

• Move to freemium model – free plus in-app payments• Social media marketing increasingly important• Plethora of social/community platforms• Fear of piracy – up to 95% first-week piracy rates• March of the clones and copyright disputes• New recommendation tools and services• Return of the publisher model• Advergames making a comeback with big brands

Android Market– Key figures

• 12+ Android phones available• 12k apps in Android Market• $5m of app revenues a month (AdMob)• HTC, Motorola, Sony Ericsson...• Avg user has downloaded 40 apps (Sep 09)

– 80% of users download at least one app a week

• Predicted 8m phones in 2009 (Strategy Analytics)– Currently 3.5% share of global smartphones (Canalys)

• By 2012 – 76m phones and 14.5% share (Gartner)

Android Market – Genre mix (Oct 09)

Source: AndroLib

Android Market Top 100 Paid Games analysis (2-Nov-09)

• Note – based on HTC Hero, which is quite new• Own-IP dominant – 95% of Top 100 Paid chart• Cheaper than iPhone – Avg price in Top 100 is $2.67

– But avg price in Top 10 is $3.42– 20 games cost $0.99 – much more even spread

• 86% indie, 14% publisher– 12 of the Top 100 are by named individuals– Gameloft 2, Glu 2, EA 0

• Four of the top 20 are retro console emulators!

Android MarketTop 100 Paid Games - Brand

Android Market Top 100 Paid Games - Price

Android Market– Key trends

• Developer unrest over dominance of free apps– Android 1.6 separated out paid games – reports of 50% uplift

• Still concerns over short descriptions / technical gremlins• Huge excitement from handset firms and operators• BUT Huge excitement = huge fragmentation?

– Google: “Developers don’t care...”

• Native Android games yet to take off– Middleware helping bridge the gap – e.g. Airplay 4.0

• Role of the operators remains to be seen

BlackBerry App WorldKey figures

• 32m BlackBerry subscribers (Sep 09)• Sold 8.3m devices in its last financial quarter

– 20.6% smartphone market share in Q3 09 (Canalys)

• More than 80% of its new users were consumers• More than 3,100 apps now available

– More than 900 games – 29.3% of the catalogue

BlackBerry App World – Genre mix (Nov-09)

Source: BlackBerry App World webstore

BlackBerry App World Top 100 Paid Games analysis (2-Nov-09)

• Own-IP big again – 62% of the chart• Average price in Top 100 is $4.77 – more than rivals

– RIM’s $2.99 basement price is partly the reason– 51% of the games cost $4.99

• 54% indie, 43% publisher – a more even split– Gameloft (14), EA (8), DChoc (6), Glu (5)– But also Concrete Software (9), Magmic (6)

• Very casual towards the top of the chart – time killers

App World Top 100 Paid Games - Brand

App World Top 100 Paid Games - Price

App World Top 100 Paid Games - Source

BlackBerry App World – Key trends

• So far – port J2ME games and charge a premium• RIM’s focus has been more on music and social apps• Not much talk about native / 3D BlackBerry gaming• BUT – very big in the North American market• RIM keen to get apps to use more platform features

– Push in particular – see U2 Mobile Album

Top 10s – iPhone v Android v BlackBerry

Date: 2 November 2009

PSP Minis – Key Facts

• Launched in October alongside PSPgo– Also available for older PSPs though – 50m install base

• 19 games available so far on the UK store• All titles under 100MB in file size and under $9.99

– Publishers set their own pricing

• Sony promising 3-5 days QA / approval• No ability for multiplayer, DLC or updates

– “It’s something we will consider in the future”

• Being presented explicitly as response to iPhone

PSP Minis –Analysis / Trends

• Average price in UK: £3.49 ($5.79-ish)• Indie developers, mobile firms and... EA

– Gameloft, Hands-On, Subatomic Studios– Other console firms not there at launch

• 16 of the 19 games are own-IP• Sony reported massive week-one downloads spike• Pricing has been compared negatively to iPhone...

Comparative Pricing: iPhone v PSP Minis

DSiWare – Key Facts

• Launched alongside DSi in April 2009 (Europe / US)– Unlike PSP Minis, not available to older DS handhelds– Estimated install base of over 10 million devices

• 49 games/apps available in the UK right now• Uses DSi Points to buy games – 1,000pts for £9

DSiWare – Analysis / Trends

• Games priced at 200, 500 and 800 points– Equivalent to £1.80, £4.50 and £7.20

• 33 of the 49 titles are from Nintendo– Spin-offs from existing brands – Kawashima, Animal Crossing...– Not always games – e.g. Mario Clock

• Gameloft has five titles, Firemint bringing Flight Control• How does pricing compare to iPhone?...

Comparative Pricing: iPhone v DSiWare

What does it all mean?

• iPhone has huge momentum with developers– BUT: downward pricing pressure– BUT: ferocious competition

• Android and BlackBerry increasingly appealing– Big install bases and promotion from mobile operators– Less competition on their App Stores, and higher prices– Courting iPhone developers like billy-o– BUT: handset fragmentation rearing its head– BUT: not as powerful as iPhone... Yet– BUT: Less chance to benefit from social media buzz

What does it all mean?

• PSP Minis and DSiWare offer route into handheld– Sony and Nintendo courting iPhone developers (sort of)– Ability to reuse assets – not a huge leap visually– Higher prices – and gamers who may be happy to pay them– BUT: not as easy as just porting games across

• Don’t forget there are other app stores too– Ovi Store (Nokia)– Windows Marketplace for Mobile (Microsoft)– Palm App Catalog– Vodafone 360, Orange Application Store...

The Big Picture

• Rise of the cross-platform digital games developer– (or publisher, obviously)

• Mobile + handheld + web/Facebook + console– Example: Connect2Media and Go Go Rescue Squad– Example: Digital Chocolate and Tower Bloxx– Example: Subatomic Studios and Fieldrunners– Example: Firemint and Flight Control– Example: Gameloft and Brain Challenge

• iPhone and Facebook emerging as hit creation platforms

Thanks!

• Contact me: sdredge@gmail.com• iPhone Games Bulletin: www.iphonegamesbulletin.com

• This presentation will be online later today at www.mobile-ent.biz