4TH YEAR COMMED Demography & Vital Indices
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Transcript of 4TH YEAR COMMED Demography & Vital Indices
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Definitiony Demography :
to describe population characteristics, size or number,
geographical distribution & to study the change ofthese determinants over time.
y Rate :
the frequency of an event in a population in relation totime.
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y Ratio :
the occurrence of an event in relation to other event.
y Proportion :
ratio that compares a part in a whole.
y Index :is used when true denominator is difficult to becalculated so a related accurate denominator is usedinstead
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Population censusTo enumerate people at a certain area at certain time. Itcollects various data* every 10 year. Mid year population is thenumber of population calculated from census at the 1st of
July(standard)
Importance of census :yCalculate the actual number of populationyPlanning for future health program
yProvide general characteristics to compare with othercountry.
yTo estimate the population in years between censuses.yCalculate vital statistical rates
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Drawback of census :y Expensive, time consuming, personnel
y If it consumes a prolonged time in data collection andanalysis so the data will be irrelevant.
y Data is inaccurate (people cheat)y Problems of nomad people
y Lack of cooperation from people or data collectors
y Data collectors may fill the questionnaire himself if
houses are empty.
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Inter-census estimation
1) Arithmetic method
2) Rate of natural increases
3) Total growth rate
4) Graphic method
5) Geometric method
RNI = birth rate death rate
TGR = (birth rate + immigration) (death rate + emigration)
Adv : assumes the populationgrowth is not linear for each year
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Population growth patterns
Birth Death RNI Lifeexpectancy
Example
Highpotential
high high > 2.5% short Pakistan
Transitional high decreasing 1.5 2.5% moderate Egypt
Stationary low low < 1.5% high Sweden
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Life expectancy :The average number of years that can be expected to belived by any individual at certain age. LE is directlyproportional to:
yCountry development
ySocio-economic level
yHealth service standard
y
Use of new technologyyLiteracy
yGood nutrition
yHealth environment
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Population pyramidy Characteristics of population pyramid
i. Base of the pyramid represents the birth rate.
ii.H
eight represents the number of years to be lived at specificage(L.E.)
iii. Top represents the percentage of old age group.
iv. Slope of the pyramid represents the age specific death rates.
v. Percentage of males and females at each age group.
vi. Dependency ratio : is the number of young ages below 15yrs old + number of old ages over 65 (who are dependent)per 100 person from 15 65 (who are independent)
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y
Different profiles of population pyramids :Base Tapering
(slope)
Expansivemodel Wide Rapid
Rapid populationgrowth and high
birth rate
Constrictive
modelNarrow Slow
Low birth rate anddecreased death
rate
Stationarymodel
Narrow Very slowLow birth rate and
low death rate
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Vital indices
I. General fertility rate
II. Age specific fertility rate
CBR = number of live birth/mid year
population x1000
GFR = number of live birth /total women
in reproductive age 15-49yrs x1000
ASFR = number of live birth born tomothers from 15-20yrs / total women in
reproductive age 15-20yrs x1000
Fertility indices
C
rude birth rate
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V. Total fertility rate
VI. Fecundity rate
VII. Gross reproduction rate
VIII. Net reproduction rate
Number of live birth / number of married woman x1000
GRR = TFRx born female/ Woman in childbearing period x1000
NRR = GRRx LE of females during childbearing period
Total number of all seven intervals for ASFR
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I. Incidence rate
II. Prevalence rateI. Point
II. Period
Morbidity indices
Number of new cases of illness / total population x1000
Number of current cases of illness at point of time/ totalpopulation at point of time x1000
Number of current cases of illness over a period of time/total population at mid year of the same period x1000
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III. Attack rate
IV. Fatality rate
Number of new cases of sp. disease during epidemicoutbreak / total number of persons at risk x1000
Number of new death of sp. disease / number of cases of
that diseasex
1000
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I. Crude death rate
II. Age specific mortality rate
Death indices
Number of death / mid year populationx
1000
Number of death in a specified age group and time /
Population of the same age group and time x1000
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III. Age-sex specific mortality rate
IV. Cause specific mortality rate
III. Proportional(relative) mortality rate
Number of death in a specified age and sex group /
Population of the same age and sex group x1000
Number of death from a sp cause at certain time /
Population of the same period time x1000
Number of death in a specified age group and time /
Total death of all causes x1000
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Sources of datacollection
Primary
Qualitative data
In-depthinterview
Focus group
Quantitativedata
Survey
Secondary
-records
-surveillance-census
Sources of data collection