4Q06 Presentation
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Transcript of 4Q06 Presentation
1
Fourth Quarter 2006Earnings Conference Call
Investor Relations Contact:Gustavo [email protected]
4Q06 Earnings Conference CallSão Paulo January 30th, 200602PM (Brasilia Time), 11AM (US-ET)Phone: +1(973) 935-8754Code: 8309316Webcast: http://www.gafisa.com.br/ir
Fourth Quarter 2006 Launches
Riviera Nice – Manaus - AM Collori – São Paulo - SP Vivance – Rio de Janeiro - RJ
2
Business Update
Wilson Amaral – Chief Executive Officer
3
2006 Highlights
Record Project Launches of R$1.0 billion for Full Year 2006
Correspondly High Pre-Sales of R$995 Million during 2006
The backlog margin for 4Q06 was stable at 42.6%, 3.8p.p. higher when compared to the 4Q05
In 2006, Backlog of Revenues reached R$297 million
Gafisa’s debut in the Maceio market, under the partnership with Cipesa
More recently, we closed the Acquisition of AlphaVille Urbanismo S.A.
Land reserves reached R$3.0 billion, an increase of 61% compared to 2005.
Gafisa land reserve is equivalent to three years of operations at the current level of launches
For 2006 mortgage granted by commercial banks and CEF increased 96% and 54%, respectively
Creation of the following management committees:
(i) Audit, (ii) Compensation, (iii) Corporate Governance; and (iv) Finance
4
4Q06: Gafisa Reports 4% Growth in Launches and 86% in Pre-Sales
128236
29
60
46
83
4Q05 4Q06
New MarketsRio de JaneiroSão Paulo
192241
90 100
8034
4Q05 4Q06
New MarketsRio de JaneiroSao Paulo
Pre-Sales by Region (R$ mm)
Launches Mix Breakdown – 4Q06
Launches by Region (R$ mm)
HIG – High Income: > 3,600 MHI – Middle High: 2,800 < > 3,600MID – Middle Income: 2,000 < > 2,800 AEL – Affordable entry level: 1,800 < > 2,000 COM – Commercial LOT – Urbanized lots
Segmentation (Prices in R$/sq.m)
375362
379
16%
27%
45%
9%3% HIG
MHI
MID
AEL
LOT
COM
72%
4%
204
86%
Pre-Sales Mix Breakdown – 4Q06
17%
15%
34%
1%
3%
30% HIG
MHI
MID
AEL
LOT
COM
49%
5
155 230
57559
140
219
41
80
201
2004 2005 2006
New MarketsRio de JaneiroSão Paulo
86
340498
51
186
239
70
126
268
2004 2005 2006
New MarketsRio de JaneiroSão Paulo
54%121%
HIG – High Income: > 3,600 MHI – Middle High: 2,800 < > 3,600MID – Middle Income: 2,000 < > 2,800 AEL – Affordable entry level: 1,800 < > 2,000 COM – Commercial LOT – Urbanized lots
Segmentation (Prices in R$/sq.m)
19%
30%
42%
1%2% 7%HIG
MHI
MID
AEL
LOT
COM
72%
Launches Mix Breakdown – FY 2006
70%217%
Segmentation (Prices in R$/sq.m)
15%
29%36%
3%3%
14%HIG
MHI
MID
AEL
LOT
COM
65%
Pre-Sales Mix Breakdown – FY 2006
1.005
652
207
995
450
254
2006: Record R$1.0 billion in launches and R$995 million in Pre-sales
Launches by Region (R$ mm) Pre-Sales by Region (R$ mm)
6
National Expansion: Laying the Groundwork to Achieve Long-term Goals
Gafisa currently operates in 13 states and 21 markets
Gafisa’s National Foothold
Gafisa
A. Salvador (Bahia)3rd largest City of BrazilFirst projects launched under partnership with OASLocated at AlphaVille Salvador
B. Vitoria (Espirito Santo)One of the highest GDP per Capita of BrazilOil Industry expected to drive strong demandOpportunities for Second-home Projects
C. Niteroi (Rio de Janeiro)Very attractive and under-explored marketSecond most important city of Rio de Janeiro StatePart of diversification strategy in Rio de Janeiro
D. Curitiba (Parana)7th largest City of BrazilLowest unemployment rate of the countryConstruction Begins along with Launches
E. Belem (Para)Second project launched under partnership with Premium
F. Manaus (Amazonas)Third project launched under partnership with RN
G. Maceió (Alagoas)First projects launched under partnership with Cipesa
A
B
CD
EF
G
Recent Developments
7
2,2 3,04,8
9,54,5
6,0
9,1
14,0
2003 2004 2005 2006
Mortgage by Commercial Banks¹ CEF Mortgage Loans
6,7
9,0
24,0
13,9
The 100% growth in Mortgage Granted in 2006…
2006 – Bradesco, Santander and Itaú offer up to 20-yr fixed rate at 14%p.a.
CEF re-enters to middle income market (10.9%p.a.)
HSBC offers 10-yr fixed mortgage at 12.7%p.a.
Gafisa, HSBC and Santander offer pre-approved mortgages
BCB allows paycheck discount for mortgage lending to public employees
Banks allowed to offer fixed rate mortgage with funds from SFH (limited to 14.2% p.a.)
2007 – CEF board members agreed that in 2007 ~50% of the mortgage loans entitled to the FGTS resources might be channeled to the new projects
Banco do Brasil expects to enter in the housing finance market this year
CEF reduced the bureaucracy in filling for construction financing. It intends to lend R$3,5bn for this purpose.
The government intend to create a fund using FGTS resources to subsidize 2/3 of the monthly installments to homebuyer contracts’. The annual household income required will be limited to 5 minimum wages.
2005 - Individuals get tax exempted on MBS Investments
ABN Amro, Santander and HSBC reduce Mortgage Rates to 8%p.y from 12%p.a.
Itaú, Bradesco, Unibanco follow suit
Santander launches 10-yr fixed mortgage rate (21%p.a.)
2003 - Central Bank increases bank requirement to invest in the sector
2004 - Resolution 10.931 Improves Foreclosure regulation
… is still shy if Compared to the Potential of The Market
Timeline – Recent Developments in the Mortgage Market
Sources: ABECIP, Central Bank ¹ Total mortgage lending using savings deposits funding (channeled-lending requirement). ² Of the R$14 billion estimated for 2006, R$9,4 billion were entailed to FGTS. ³ Estimated number for 2006. From January to November period of 2006 lending volume totaled R$8,4bn.
Mortgage Granted (R$ million)
2
CAGR 03-06 (%): 53%
+73%
+54%
+34%
36%
33%
52%
60%
96%
54%
8
10%
90%
Mortgage Loans Gafisa
Pre-Sales - Financing provided by Gafisa versus Mortgage provided by Banks (%)
Decreasing Interest Rates and Development of the Mortgage Market…
…is already impacting
35%
65%
Mortgage Loans Gafisa
15%
85%
Mortgage Loans Gafisa
200620052004
9
On January 8th 2007, Gafisa concluded the acquisition of AlphaVille Urbanismo S.A.
AlphaVille Urbanismo is the largest and only nationwide community development company in
Brazil, with no major competitors to date.
Segment characterized by: high entry barrier; higher margins and lower cash exposure than
that of residential buildings
Gafisa acquired 60% of AlphaVille for R$198.4 million, of which R$20 million in cash and
R$178.4 million paid in 6,358,616 share
Gafisa will acquire the remaining 40% over the next five years in cash or shares, at Gafisa’s
sole discretion.
Closing of the Acquisition of AlphaVille
100%112,853,538100%111,511,596Total
46.7%52,667,18147.2%52,667,181 Market Float
2.8%3,124,972 7.3%8,141,646 Treasury Stock
5.63%6,358,616--AlphaVille Shareholders
19.9%22,468,727 20.1%22,468,727 Vehicles Controlled by GP Investimentos
25.0%28,234,042 25.3%28,234,042 Vehicles Controlled by Equity International
(%)# Shares(%)# SharesShareholders
Position as of 01/08/2007 (Post-Acquisition)Position as of 12/31/2006
Gafisa’s Post-Acquisition Shareholder Structure
10
Land Bank: High growth with relatively low risk
77%2,68320,77930,593,768AlphaVille Total
Gafisa
79%3,04712,9021,468,230Gafisa Total
AlphaVille
84%1,78113,70320,570,203Southeast
100%3242,2394,142.173Northeast
15%4023,2943,853,600South
100%1401,0911,635,676Mid-West
100%35453392,116North
77%1,2406,144817,290New Markets
77%5,73033,68132,061,998Gafisa + AlphaVille
% acquiredby swap
Future Sales (R$000)Potential UnitsUsable Area
(sq.m)
92%9183,938345,906Rio de Janeiro
305,034 2,820 888 53%Sao Paulo
¹ As of 09/30/06
Combination of AlphaVille’s sizable Land Bank with Gafisa’s strategic reserves
11
Underpinning our actions is a commitment to staying ahead with Governance
Audit Committee (required NYSE Rule 303A.03)(i) Reviews the integrity of the financial statements and the financial reporting process of
the Company
Compensation Committee (required NYSE Rule 303A.05)(i) Evaluate the CEO's performance in light of goals and objectives,(ii) Determine and recommend to company's shareholders the CEO's compensation level
Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee (required under NYSE Rule 303A.04)(i) To develop and recommend to the board a set of corporate governance guidelines
applicable to the corporation
Finance Committee(i) approves our corporative finance policies, follows up and examines their effectiveness
and implementation(ii) examines our investment and financing plans and opportunities(iii) examines the impact of the investment and financing plans in the Company’s cash flow
and capital structure
Transparency, clear policies, disclosure and best practices in corporate governance
12
Financial and Operational Performance
Duílio Calciolari – Chief Financial Officer
13
2,8
30,512,8%
2,2%
4Q05 4Q06
EBITDA EBITDA Margin
5,6 13,9
5,8%4,3%
4Q05 4Q06
Net Income Net Margin
4Q06: Operating Highlights
36,0
67,4
28,3%
27,9%
4Q05 4Q06Gross Profit Gross Margin
Net Revenues (R$ mm) Gross Profit (R$ mm)
EBITDA¹ (R$ mm) Net Income¹ (R$ mm)
128,9
238,3
4Q05 4Q06Net Revenues
84.8%84.8%
87.1%87.1%
979.2%979.2%
149.6%149.6%
¹ Under new accounting policy for selling expenses.
14
20,0 27,0
75,25,6%
11,3%
4,2%
2004 2005 2006
Net Income Net Margin
2006: Operating Highlights
124,5 138,8
198,1
30,4%
29,9%29,8%
2004 2005 2006
Gross Profit Gross Margin
66,0 65,0
96,613,2%
14,6%
14,1%
2004 2005 2006
Adj. EBITDA EBITDA Margin
Net Revenues (R$ mm) Gross Profit (R$ mm)
EBITDA¹ (R$ mm) Net Income¹ (R$ mm)
416,9 457,0
663,8
2004 2005 2006
45.3% 42.7%
64.2% 145.2%
¹ Under new accounting policy for selling expenses.
9.6%11.5%
15
Revenues Reflect Previous Years Pre-Sales
-0,2%(1,003)Other
100%663,847100%995,101Total
7%45,2443%30,490Launched in 2002
21%134,7054%39,973Launched in 2003
30%197,43415%150,029Launched in 2004
26%167,64422%219,290Launched in 2005
17%109,93056%555,292Launched in 2006
% of RevenuesRevenues% of Pre-SalesPre-SalesDevelopments
78%
58%
2006 Pre-sales x Recognized Revenues for 2006 (R$000)
16
Productivity Indicators: G&A and Selling Expenses
10,0%
4,2%
4Q05 4Q06Selling Expenses / Pre-Sales
G&A / Launches (R$ mm) – 4Q06
Selling Expenses / Pre Sales (R$ mm) – 4Q06
3,5%
6,3%
4Q05 4Q06G&A / Launches
-5.8pp-5.8pp
9,3%
5,2%
2005 2006Selling Expenses / Pre-Sales
G&A / Launches (R$ mm) - 2006
Selling Expenses / Pre Sales (R$ mm) - 2006
4,7% 5,3%
2005 2006G&A / Launches
-4.1pp-4.1pp
0.7pp0.7pp
2.8pp2.8pp
17
Changes in Accounting for Selling Expenses
Matching BRGAAP Practices with USGAAP
Expensed as Incurred
Expensed as Incurred
Expensed as IncurredSales Commissions
Expensed as Incurred
Expensed as Incurred
Deferred and recognized as the
development progresses
Project Specific Advertising
Deferred and recognized as the
development progresses
Deferred and recognized as the
development progresses
Deferred and recognized as the
development progresses
Sales Stand / Showroom / Model Apartment
Expensed as Incurred
Expensed as Incurred
Expensed as IncurredInstitutional Advertising
USGAAPBR GAAP (new policy)
BR GAAP (old policy)
Differences between Previous and New Practices
18
Reconciliation for Changes in Accounting for Selling Expenses
Matching BRGAAP Practices with USGAAP
(16,085)(4,841)(11,244)Selling Expenses
0.13
5.8%
13,932
12.8%
30,521
28.3%
67,356
238,287
4Q06 Results under New Policy
Effect of New Accounting Practice
4Q06 Pro-forma Results under Previous PolicyIncome Statement (R$000)
0.030.17EPS(R$)
(1.3p.p)7.6%Net Margin
(3,195)17,992Net Income
(2.0p.p)14.8%EBITDA Margin
(4,841)35,362EBITDA
0.0p.p.28.3%Gross Margin
-67,356Gross Profits
-238,287Net Revenues
(51,671)(11,886)(39,785)Selling Expenses
0.73
11.3%
75,233
14.6%
96,640
29.8%
198,051
663,847
2006 Results under New Policy
Effect of New Accounting Practice
2006 Pro-forma Results under Previous PolicyIncome Statement (R$000)
0.070.80EPS(R$)
(1.2p.p)12.5%Net Margin
(7,845)83,078Net Income
(1.8p.p)16.3%EBITDA Margin
(11,886)108,526EBITDA
0.0p.p.29.8%Gross Margin
-198,051Gross Profits
-663,847Net Revenues
19
Backlog Margin(new method)
Backlog of Results(new method)
… with margins of 42.6%
Currently, Gafisa has approximately R$297 million of results to be recognized
4Q06(c)
3Q06(b)
Backlog of Revenues
Costs of Units Soldto be Recognized
Backlog of Results(previous method)
Backlog Margin(previous method)
679,8
(386,1)
293,7
43.2%
795,3
339,1
42.6%
(456,3)
4Q05 (a)
436,1
(266,9)
169,2
38.8%
(c)/(b)%
17%
25%
6%
(c)/(a)%
82%
81%
84%
38,8%
43,2% 42,6%
4T05 3T06 4T06
297,4
37.4%
- -
- -
Backlog: Change in Practice increases Visibility of Gafisa’s Financials
Revenues and Results be Recognized (R$ mm) Backlog Margin (%)
20
Reconciliation of Backlog
Changes in Accounting of the Backlog
RecognizedNot recognizedRecognizedLand paid under revenue swap
RecognizedNot recognizedRecognizedDevelopment costs
RecognizedRecognizedRecognizedLand Cost (cash and swap payments)
RecognizedRecognizedRecognizedConstruction Cost
Backlog of Results (new policy)
Backlog of Results (old policy)
Income Statement
21
Financial Position
Short Term DebtLong Term Debt Total Debt
Cash and Cash Equivalents Net Debt (Net Cash)Shareholder’s Equity
Total Capitalization
(R$ million) 3Q06
22527
251
330(79)810
1,061
4Q05
30265295
26629825
1,120
Net Debt/ Equity -10%4%
4Q06
…coupled with focus on working capital management
68%
54263317
134183270
587
22
Gafisa x Consensus Estimates
0.520.74-EPS(R$)
1,005870815 - 835New Projects Launched (R$000)
995758-Pre-Sales
29
8.5%
54
16.5%
109
29.8%
198
663
2006 FY ResultsFirst Call Consensus
EstimatesGuidance
(47)-Net Debt
12.3%-Net Margin
77-Net Income
15.4%16-17%EBITDA Margin
97-EBITDA
30.7%-Gross Margin
192-Gross Profits
627-Net Revenues
Source: Thomson First Call(1) Previous Accounting Practice(2) Including IPO Expenses
23
“Safe-Harbor” Statement
We make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of our management, and on information currently available to us. Forward-looking statements include statements regarding our intent, belief or current expectations or that of our directors or executive officers.
Forward-looking statements also include information concerning our possible or assumed future results of operations, as well as statements preceded by, followed by, or that include the words ''believes,'' ''may,'' ''will,'' ''continues,'' ''expects,'‘ ''anticipates,'' ''intends,'' ''plans,'' ''estimates'' or similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Our future results and shareholder values may differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by these forward-looking statements. Many of the factors that will determine these results and values are beyond our ability to control or predict.