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Chapter 4
DBMOGRAPBIC CBABGB ARD TBB AGRARIAN BCOROMY
Thi~ chapter attempts to test the empirical validity of some of
the dominant assertions pertaining to the location of the
demographic variable in historical change, using data from
colonial Malabar. By providing estimates of important demographic
indices at the district level it adds to the sparse material on
colonial Indian demography, using registration data to complement
the Census. The objectives are to: a) chart Malabar's population
history from the early nineteenth to the mid-twentieth century,
b) .sketch the movement in the region's vital rates. An analysis
of colonial Malabar's fertility levels will be useful in checking
the assumption that India (shared with other Oriental
countries),a very high pre-transitional fertility regime, and c)
discuss the interrelationship if any between demographic and non
demographic variables and their relative impact on the agrarian
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economy. 1
Demographic changes have been emphasized as the crucial motor
of social transformation by a number of historians. These works
in spite of their many differences have at least one common
assumption, i.e. the centrality of the demographic as a social
determinant. This shared understanding of these scholars allows
one to club them together under the broad but useful category of
the "population-induced change school". Among others M.M.Postan
and Le Roy Ladurie may be taken as representative of this stream
of analysis. 2 The assumptions of Postan and Ladurie, in their
discussions of pre-capitalist Europe are very clearly Malthusian,
these being (a) the incapability of the economy to increase
agricultural productivity through technological changes, (b) the
operation of the law of diminishing returns in agriculture, and
(c) an inherent tendency for the population to increase. Given
these assumptions it would logically and inevitably follow that
the demand for food would outstrip supply over time, upsetting
the model's long term validity. To overcome this problem,
1. Nigel Crook, "On the comparative historical perspective: India, Europe, The Far East" in Dyson, ed. India's Historical Demography, Curzon Press, London, 1989, p.286.
2. M.M Postan, Medieval Economy and Society, Middlesex, 1972; Le Roy Ladurie, Peasants of Languedoc, Chicago,1980
153
demography has been attributed a homeostatic character with an
ability to change its rate and direction of change through the
operation of Malthusian positive checks taking the form of
subsistence crises. This seemingly neat model of population
inspired historical change is seriously handicapped by its
refusal to take into account the historically conditioned social
relations and forces of production, which to a very large extent
prepare the material conditions which generate demographic shifts
and also provide the social setting upon which demographic
changes differentially impact.
A radical variant of this formulation is Esther Boserup's
avowedly anti-Malthusian argument for the capability of
population increase to trigger off technological innovations in
agriculture. 3 Arguing against the fundamental Malthusian
postulate of an inelastic supply of land and decreasing returns
to labour, Boserup proposes that increased labour supply due to
population pressure more than cancels out the lowered
productivity due to the bringing in of marginal lands. She
contends that increased population densities result in harder
work by farmers and more efficient work routines. In spite of her
3. Esther Boserup, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change Under Population Pressure, George Allen and Unwin, London, 1965
154
attempts to reverse the Malthusian argument, Boserup like the
Malthusians, attributes independent transformative power to
changes in population sizes and densities. The major theoretical
weakness of this approach is its refusal to recognize that
demographic changes may themselves be the cumulative product of
the interaction between multiple social structures.
Recent works on "proto-industrialization" have also primarily
depended on demographic analysis in examining the social impact
of rural industrialization before the Industrial Revolution. 4
Apart from a number of shortcomings the "proto-industrialization"
literature is plagued by innumerable incomplete and rather loose
propositions. For ~nstance, how regularly did sharp population
increases precede the linking up of cheap labour to rural
industries? If proto-industrial opportunities did indeed lower
the age at first marriage and increase fertility then why did not
the tightening of the job market produce an opposite effect?
Finally, the proponents of proto-industrialization give th~
impression that these demographic tendencies were peculiar to
4. For representative writings on _"proto-industrialization" see Franklin F .Mendels, "Proto-Industrialization: The First Phase of the Industrialization Process" J.E.H., xxxii,1972; Wolfram Fischer, "Rural Industrialization and Population Change" C.S.S.H.,xv,1972; Kriedte, Schlumbom, et. al., ed., Industrialization before Industrialization.
155
industrial populations whereas, it has been observed that "before
1900 the bulk of the rapid population increase resulting from the
Western demographic transition occurred among the rural
landless." 5
The Marxist position on this problem is a total rejection
of the claim that the demographic variable is autonomous and
constitutes the most crucial exogenous determinant of social
change. Robert Brenner, an exponent of the dominant Marxist view
has examined the specific question of the relative significance
of the demographic variable in the decline of feudalism in
Western Europe. The crux of Brenner's argument in his own words
is as follows, "· .. it is the structure of class relations, of
class power, which will determine the manner and the degree to
which particular demographic changes will affect long-run trends
in the distribution of income and economic growth and not vice
versa."6 While correct in emphasizing the primacy of class
relations in the context of the transition from feudalism to
5. Ronald Lee, "Models of Pre-Industrial Fertility Dynamics for England" in Charles Tilly ed., Historical Studies of Changing Fertility, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1978
6. Robert Brenner, "Agrarian Class Structure and Economic Development in Pre-industrial Europe", Past and Present, No.70, February 1976, p.31
156
' capitalism or in the capitalist epoch Brenner fails to recognize
that in precapitalist social formations demographic change
(though conditioned by social processes) could have a greater
transforming capacity vis-a-vis the capitalist order. Unlike the
capitalist economy in some precapitalist economies there were no
unutilized but utilizable reserve production factors. Hence, the
availability of manpower assumed great significance in the
development of these economies. 7 It appears as though this
hesitancy to concede the explanatory potential of demographic
changes on the part of modern day Marxists stems from their
tendency to extrapolate retrospectively the Marx vs. Malthus
polemics. In the first volume of Capital Marx wrote - "The
labouring population therefore produces, along with the
accumulation of capital produced by it, the means by which itself
is made superfluous, is turned into relative surplus population,
and it does so to an always increasing extent. This is a law of
population peculiar to the Capitalist modes of production. and in
fact every historic mode of production has its own special laws
of population. historically valid within its limits only." (my
7. This argument is borrowed from Witold Kula, An Economic Theory of the Feudal System, London, 1976
157
emphasis) 8
In spite of Marx's warning that the "laws" of population are
historically defined, Marxists like Brenner seem to have
mechanically applied, the location of population dynamics in the
capitalist epoch for precapitalist times also in their eagerness
to counter the neo Malthusian myths on population ied historic
transformations.
In economic history works one gets the impression that the
demographic variable in spite of its capacity to effect changes
in the overall economic structure is-largely denied substantial
backward linkages with the economic whole. While proximate
explanations for population changes are attributed to subsistence
crises or pandemic diseases, attempts to structurally relate the
demographic variable to other economic variables have been
nonexistent till very recently.
Historical demography in the Indian context is a discipline
which had failed to attract any serious scholarly interest till a
recently. It may be said that the bulk of the studies on India's
past population have limited themselves to estimating population
sizes at various points of time, using highly questionable
methods. In the last two decades Western scholarship has begun to
6. Karl Marx, Capital vol.I, 1978 p.693
158
take some interest in reconstructing India's demographic history.
Attempts were made to relate the regional and subcontinental
demographic trends to economic movements and in some cases to
epidemiological developments. In the very recent past a few
historians have·tried to integrate demography as an internal
variable into a an analysis of changes in the rural economy. 9
Section I The Data Base
The main sources for reconstructing Malabar's demographic history
are the decadal Censuses, pre-Census population enumerations and
the Annual Report of the Sanitary Commissioner for Madras. For
the early 19th century upto 1871 we have only the pre-Census
population counts supplying information on the total population
size and its sex-wise, religion-wise and caste-wise distribution.
Fortunately, for the larger part of the Census era we have
independently collected annual vital rates for the population in
the Reports of the Sanitary Commissioner for each district of the
9. See Sugata Bose, The New Cambridge Economic History of India III: 2: Peasant Labour and Colonial Capital: Rural Bengal Since 1770, Vasant Kaiwar, 'Property structures, demography and the crisis of the agrarian economy of colonial Bombay Presidency' in David Ludden, ed., Agricultural Production and Indian History, Oxford University Press, Delhi, 1994.
159
Madras Presidency beginning in 1867. The RSCM recorded vital
statistics, causes of mortality, grain prices and the nature of
the season and health conditions of the population every year.
The data furnished in the RSCM was collected by the village
headman who was also the Registrar of Births and Deaths. The
RSCM's raw data on birth and deaths can thus be used for
constructing an alternate series to the Census figures after
making certain corrections.
With some exceptions in recent years, demographers and others
have shied away from using annual vital rates for studying the
country's past demographic behaviour. Vital registration
statistics in India have been faulted for careless enumeration
and under reporting. In Madras year after year with monotonous
regularity the sanitary Commissioner's Report lamented severe
under reporting - "Registration of vital statistics is generally
very backward in the rural tracts of the Presidency, due
principally to there being no legal compulsion on the part of the
residents to report all cases of births and deaths. The
innumerable duties attached to the village headmen who are also
the Registrars of Births and Deaths in these areas and the
consequent lack of much interest on their part in the conduct of
this part of their work also contribute to the present
160
unsatisfactory results." 10 The Madras vital registration figures
have constantly trended lower than that for the rest of the
country. This differential appears to be in large part a result
of under registration of births and deaths. In Malabar and for
the Presidency as a whole, however, the crude rate of natural
increase (CRNI) i.e. the difference between the births and deaths
corresponded fairly well with the increase in Census population
size. This correspondence, however, should not be mistaken for
good vital registration coverage. Malabar ranked only twentieth
among the twenty five districts of Madras in terms of
registration of vital events in 1926. 11 The completeness of
vital registration coverage was the matter of a controversy
between the Superintendent of the Census operation and the
Director of Public Health. The former in his report on the 1921
Census maintained that "it does not appear that the registration
of births And deaths in the various districts is badly
defective." 12 By deducting the number of deaths for the less than
one year age cohort from the registered number of births in 1920,
10. RSCM, 1915, p.27
8. See Madras Public Health. Review of the Public Health Report. Local Self Government, Madras, n.d.
12. RSCM, 1923, p.3
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he found that the remainder approximated closely to the
population returned in the 1921 Census for the 0 to 1 age group.
This was taken as proof for the completeness of vital
registration.
Such a test for registration coverage is erroneous because under
enumerated births and under registered deaths can provide a CRNI
figure corresponding to intercensal population change. The
correspondence of CRNI with intercensal population increase
suggest that while vital registration may not have been complete
the enumerated sample is fairly well representative of the
demographic behaviour of the whole population. Certain marked
deviations from the CijR and CDR trends for some years may be
attributed to erroneous figures.
The raw age specific death registration data has been corrected
with age-wise population figures for under enumeration using the
Brass Growth Balance method. 13 The advantage with annual and
monthly vital registration series is that unlike the census
10. W.Brass, "Estimating Mortality from Deficient Data" in Methods for Estimating Fertility and Mortality from Limited and Defective Data, University of North Carolina: POPLAB Occasional ·Publication, 1975. See Tim Dyson and Arup Maharatna, "Excess Mortality during the Great Bengal Famine: A re-evaluation" I.E.S.H.R., xv111, 3, 1991 for its application to preindependence Indian vital statistics.
162
information it allows a study the interrelationship of
demographic movements and changes in other short run variables.
However, given the under coverage of vital statistics and the
approximate means of correction it would be prudent to use them
as indicators of a trend rather accurate absolute values.
The decennial censuses from 1871 onwards provide the main source
for the demographic history of India. Vital rates with their
marked underreporting are usually compared and corrected with
Census information. The Madras Presidency had regular
quinquennial population enumerations from 1851-52 till the taking
of the first all India Census of 1871 conducted by the East India
Company's Board of Revenue. 14 .
In Malabar these quinquennial Censuses were preceded by
·population enumerations in 1821 and 1827. 15 and 1837, and rough
estimations in 1802 and 1808.
The extremely high growth rates in the years upto 1871 (See
Table 5.1) strongly suggest an artificial inflation of growth
14. Quinquennial Census data has been based on the summary provided in Census of India, Cochin, Coorg and Madras, Vols. III, 1872, I.D.C. Micro Edition.
15. See Captain B.S Ward "Memoirs, Triangles and Statistics of Malabar,1828 and "A Canashoomaree or Statistical Table of the Province of Malabar" Mss., A Catalogue of the Historical Maps of the Survey of India, N.A.I.
163
rates due to improved coverage at the later dates. Accepting
these early population estimates and figures uncritically appears
to have been one of the reasons why the late 18th century has
been depicted in much of Indian historiography as a period of
depopulation.
Section II Pre-1871 Popu1ation Enumerations
Population estimates for the pre-statistical era are for large
parts of the subcontinent. Moreland estimated the population of
India at 100 million using an assumed soldier to population ratio
for the Deccan (30 million) and the labour necessary to cultivate
the given area under cultivation for Northern India (70
million) . 16 All the other estimates are based on backward
projections of the Census estimates. 17 All these estimates except
that of/Swaroop and Lal suggest an increase in the rate of change
between 1650-1750 and the nineteenth century. Many of the
estimates indicate a slackening of growth in the first half of
the nineteenth century with annual ,growth rates below one per
16. W.H.Moreland, India at the Death of Akbar: an Economic Study, 1990 reprint, Delhi, pp. 9-22
17. See Visaria,"Population (1757- 1947)" in Dharma Kumar, ed., Cambridge Economic History of India Vol. II, pp.525-27, Appendix 5.1
164
cent. Apart from Moreland's the other estimates of precensus
population size are backward projections of the population trends
in the census period. The assumptions of a linear or logistic
rate of growth for temporally remote and historically different
epochs make most of these estimates highly arbitrary.
Madras, in contrast to other Presidencies, had a long
history of population enumeration. Here the Board of Revenue
required each district head to make quinquennial returns of the
population of his district. 18 The methods employed in the
enumerations of 1821-22 and 1836-37 are not known. 19 In 1849, the
Government of India decided to conduct five yearly population
counts employing revenue officials. This resulted in quinquennial
censuses in Madras between 1851-52 and 1866-67. The fifth
quinquennial census was of 1871-72 was merged with the first
Imperial Census. Village magistrates and accountants who had
conducted the earlier censuses were deputed as enumerators for
the first all India Census.
Table 5.1 gives the uncorrected population figures at various
points of time from the early 19th century.
18. Census, 1872, Report, vols. I- II, I.D.C. Micro Edition.
19. ibid.
165
Table 5.1 Malabar Population, Rates of Growth
YEAR Total Annual Compound Population Rate of Growth (per cent)
1821 907575 N.A. 1827 1022195 2.00 1837 1165791 1.32 1851 1514909 1.89 1856 1602914 1.14 1861 1709.081 1.29 1866 1856378 1.67 1871 2261250 4.03 1881 2365035 0.45 1891 2641928 1.11 1901 2790281 0.55 1911 3015119 0.78 1921 3098871 0.27 1931 3533944 1.32 1941 3929425 1.07 1951 4758342 1.90
Sources: S . M . , Census, Ward, o:g.cit.
The annual rate of growth calculated on the basis of these
figures show a massive jump between 1802 and 1808 followed by a
high but less marked growth upto 1866. It suggests that the
period of quinquennial enumeration and the census period rates of
growth exhibit plausible and comparable rates of increase.
Similarly the 1821 to 1851 figures also exhibit plausible growth
rates. The 1802 and 1871 figures stand out as sharp outliers.
166
While the 1802 enumeration appears to be a severe underestimate,
the 1871 figure suggests much larger coverage compared to the
quinquennial surveys.
The population figures till 1871 need substantial correction
before they can be used even as approximate indicators of the in
population change. 2° Female under enumeration has been repeatedly
stressed as the bane of Indian censuses. With a significant
section of the population in Malabar following the matrilineal
system one would expect a favourable feminity ratio which is seen
in the post-1871 censuses in the earlier period also. The average
sex ratio for 1856, 1861 and 1866 (1013) has been assumed to have
held true for the pre-1881 period also. This imputed value has
been used to make upward revisions in the female population
registered by the pre-census enumerations. 21 The quinquennial
20. The 1871 census also appears to have under counted women. This is suggested by a S.R of 993 which is 1.7 per cent less than the average for 1866 and 1881.
21. The Sex Ratio (No. of Females/No. of Males X 1000) shows a small but constant increase from 1856 to 1931, except for a possibly erroneous sharp drop in 1871 (1871 SR = 993). We have imputed the 1856-61 average for the 1802 and 1827 population returns, because its greater proximity in time to these years than the post 1881 sex ratios. SRs do not change very rapidly and it would be safe to assume a constant SR for a period of about thirty years.
167
enumerations from 1851-52 to 1866-67 and the 1827 enumeration
provide sex-wise population breakup. For the 1802 census we have
imputed the 1827 sex ratio to estimate the number of males and
females. In Table 5.2 the column ESTl gives the population
corrected for female under enumeration. However, even after
correcting for female under counting, substantial under coverage
is evident in the earlier enumerations. Unfortunately for Malabar
there are no reliable figures for the area under cultivation
before the late 19th century. The total map area cannot be taken
as a correction factor because a secular decline in the
district's area is accompanied by a continuous increase in its
population.
Table 5.2 Estimated Growth Rates of Uncorrected and Estimated Populations of Malabar 1821 to 1881
Year TPOP ROG ESTl ROGl S.R
1821 907575 N.A. N.A. ' N.A. 1827 1022195 2.002 1052523 N.A. 955 1837 1165791 1.323 N.A. N.A. 1851 1514909 1.889 1541615 N.A. 1856 1602914 1.136 1638999 1.012 1027 1861 1709081 1.291 1729789 1. 011 1006 1866 1856378 1.667 1878839 1. 017 1006 1871 2261250 4.025 '2792316 1.040 993 1881 2365035 0.450 2369685 1.003 1014
Source: Computed on the basis of Ward, op.cit., Statistics of Malabar and various issues of the Imperial Census, Madras R.O.G. annual compound growth rate; S.R. unrevised sex ratio.
168
Drastic revisions in the size and number of the traditional
administrative units such as the desam and the nad render them
incomparable over time and therefore useless as correction aids
for adjusting the population figures. Another surrogate index for
the extent of government population enumeration is the number of
'houses. In Malabar houses were taxed under the Mohtu~ha head of
revenue till 1861 when it was discontinued in favour of a general
income tax. House counts are available for the years 1828, 1832-
33 and 1860-61. The number of occupants per house is estimated at
six which corresponds to the average of the 1871 and 1881 census
figure of 5.8. The enumerated number of houses has then been
multiplied by six to get a revised population estimate. However,
even after making an upward revision using the above correction
factor the estimated population remained below the raw aggregate
figure. This was possibly due to underenumeration of houses or
non-inclusion of the very poor homesteads. The relatively small
rate of population increase between 1821 and 1836 was a
phenomenon experienced in most regions of Madras. In 1818 a
cholera ~pidemic in the Presidency resulted in a large increase
in mortality from 1818 to 1826-27. Madras was subjected to a more
deadly epidemic in 1833-34 which was preceded by a devastating
169
famine. 22 Though in Malabar there was no absolute decline in
population size these epidemics appear to have decelerated the
rate of population increase. 'The steep increase in population
from 1851-52 to 1871, especially in the last five years appears
to be largely the result of better counting at the latter date.
Between 1866-67 and 1871 the registered population grew by 21.8
percent. During this period Wynad taluk registered an increase of
122.5 percent, contributing substantially to the general increase
in the district's population. Apart from Wynad where European run
plantations expanded rapidly and consequently led to a large
influx of labourers, the sudden acceleration in the other taluks
reflect a spurious rise caused by more complete coverage in 1871.
Section III The Census Period- Mortality and Ferti1ity
Trends
In this Section an attempt is made to chart the movement of
mortality and fertility in colonial Malabar using the decennial
Census and the annual vital rates statistics from the RSCM. The
RSCM provides a rich source for reconstructing the district's
mortality and fertility trends. Annual death data is available
22. Census, Madras, vol.I, 1872
170
from 1866. 23
Even a cursory inspection of the annual birth and death data
for Malabar suggest gross under enumeration. However, when the
CRNI is calculated from the raw birth and death figures it
exhibits only a small degree of under enumeration (compared to
the rate of intercensal increase) amounting to less than 5
percent for.the period 1871 to 1931. This appears to have been
caused by under registration of both births and deaths. However,
the monthly and seasonal movements in mortality and fertility
show recursive patterns. Sharp increases in mortality figures are
also registered in years of major epidemics and subsistence
crises. All this points to the conclusion that though mortality
and fertility figures are low in absolute terms, they did
sensitively mirror short term fluctuations. The changing levels
of under registration over time, however, prevents the use of
this data in its raw form for constructing time series of
mortality and fertility based measures for periods exceeding a
decade. A marked improvement in the level of registration is
claimed by the 1920s. Such changes in coverage render the
uncorrected series unsuitable for medium and long run analysis.
23. The gaps in the different series constructed on the basis of RSCM data is due to the unavailability of the complete RSCM series in India.
171
In this chapter the Brass Growth Balance Method has been
employed to estimate the level of death registration around each
Census year from 1881, when age specific population figures were
made available for the first time in the Indian Census. 24
Table 5.3 gives the estimated correction factors and the
level of completeness of registration. The assumption being made
here is that the average of the correction factors for two census
years will provide a deficient but working revision factor for
that intercensal period. Though this method is not the most
robust its simplicity and the fact that the present analysis is
not attempting to accurately chart the changes in annual
mortality and fertility justifies its use. Even when the
regression coefficient of dx/nx+ on nx/nx+ is not statistically
significant, the slope of the equation can be used to estimate
the level of under registration.
16. See United Nations, Manual X: Indirect methods for demographic estimation, New York, 1983, pp.139-146 and Tim Dyson and Arup Maharatna,"Excess mortality during the Bengal Famine: A re-evaluation", I.E.S.H.R., xviii, 3, 1991
172
Table 5.3 Estimated Levels of Death under-registration in Malabar using the Brass' Growth Balance Method
Year Sex Slope (K) Completeness of registration (C) %
1881 Male 4.914 20.40 Female 3.196 31.28
1891 Male 1.466 68.24 Female 1.471 68.00
1901 Male 1.395 70.70 Female 1.328 75.30
1911 Male 1. 885 53.04 Female 2.164 42.21
1921 Male 1.305 76.61 Female 1.485 67.35
1931 Male 1.187 84.75 Female 1.485 67.35
Source: Calculated from data in Census and R.S.C.M . The reciprocal of the slope of the regression partial death rate (Dx+/Nx+) on partial birth rate (Nx/Nx+) provides the level of completeness of registration.
Dx+= Registered deaths above age x. Nx+= Population above age x. Nx= Population at exact age x.
Mortality
For the period 1871 to 1930 the crude rate of natural increase on
the whole exhibited an upward trend. Figures 1.a and b show the
movement in the corrected and uncorrected crude birth and death
rates. A small decrease in the birth death rates can be noticed
173
after the 1877 famine up to t~e 1890s~. From the 1890s to 1919
both these rates climb steeply to decline subsequently. Mortality
improves substantially in the post 1921 period increasing the gap
between the Crude Death Rate and the Crude Birth Rate. The
beginning of the sustained fall in mortality and the consequent
rapid population growth in Malabar can be placed around 1912 if
we decide to exclude the mortality peaks caused by the influenza
epidemic of 1918 and the dysentery and cholera epidemic of 1919.
The infant death rate curve also exhibits a sustained downward
trend from this period (see Graph 4.1 Infant Death Rate).
In Malabar unlike the rest of the sub-continent, though
mortality played a crucial role in limiting population growth, it
was fertility rather than mortality which explained the rate of
population growth and population size. The following regressions
run on the dependent variables 'rate of natural increase' or
R.N.I. and the estimated annual population or ESTPT with
independent variables MACBR3 and MACDR3, these being three year
moving averages of the crude birth and death rates respectively.
The birth rate explained the rate of natural increase more
174
significantly than mortality. 25 The R squared value of the
equation is small as other factors such as migration which have
been omitted may have influenced the rate of increase. However,
given the statistical significance of the birth parameter
estimate and the fact that the equation is not being used for
forecasting but for explanation we can take it to suggest the
cruciality of birth rates vis-a vis mortality in population
change. 26
Between 1876 and 1878 Madras experienced a major famine al
though the intensity of its impact varied geographically. 27
Malabar, which was classed as a 'non-famine district' suffered
during these years not so much due to pluviometric decreases or
crop failures but due to the changed market conditions in the
Presidency. In normal years when a crop failed, prices would rise
25.Range: 1874 to 1930 Dependent variable : R.N.!. n=28 Variable Coefficient t-Statistic
MACBR3 0.048 1.1oo* MACDR3 -0.008 -0.024 CONSTANT. -0.749 -0.757 R2= 0.11346 Significant at to.1o
26. See A.Koutsoyannis, Theory of econometrics, London, 1985, p.97 for a note on the importance of statistical tests of significance.
27. Innes, op.cit.
175
and rice would come in from Bengal and Burma. But with a famine
in the rest of the Presidency, grain was available for import to
this chronically rice deficit district only at famine prices. The
market it may be said thus conducted the subsistence crisis in
the other parts of the Presidency to Malabar, though in the
course of transmission much of the deadly intensity of the famine
was fortunately lost. In Malabar the most important cause of
death was 'fevers'. It was during the wet, unhealthy monsoon
months which were also a period of reduced agricultural
employment and high food prices that fever mortality was at its
peak.
Lack of continuous vital rates between 1882 and 1889 prevent
a description of the demographic trends in these years. The
available Crude Death Rate of 1885 approaches the earlier 'famine
rate' of mortality. 28 The official year 1890-91 again saw a
scarcity situation. There was a failure of the coffee crop in
Wynad and the makaram rice crop in the plains, a repetition of
what happened in 1876. 29 In response to a shortfall in supply,
prices rose and in 1892 the Crude Death Rate climbed to 18.
28. The unrevised C.D.R. for 1885 was 16 while those corrected for intercensal population increase and for death undercoverage were 21.18 and 32.44 respectively.
29. Innes op. cit., p.273.
176
Another noticeable increase in mortality in 1900 appears to be
the result of a partial scarcity in 1899 coupled with fevers and
cholera. 30 The first decade of this century saw a sharp hike in
mortality rates with the death rate being higher in five out of
ten years in Malabar compared to the Presidency. The increases
deaths in 1903 and 1907 were caused by cholera. 31 In the first
decade of this century the death rate exhibits a statistically
insignificant trend against time. The great divide in India's
population history is dated at 1921 with the rate of natural
increase registering a secular increase after this date because
of a lowered death rate. If the 1918 influenza epidemic and the
associated sharp rise in excess deaths are ignored, one sees a
diverging trend between the birth and death rate from 1912. In
in
Malabar even deadlier than the influenza epidemic of 1918 was the
severe cholera and dysentery which hit the district the following
year. 32
30. RSCM, 1897, p.35.
31. RSCM, 1903,1907.
32. " ... the fever epidemic died down in the early months of 1919, but reappeared about the middle of the next year when, however its ravages were neither so widespread or fatal as in the previous year.In spite of high prices which still continued everywhere there was a slight recovery in 1919 except in the West Coast division where a severe visitation of cholera and dysentery
177
Violent fluctuations in the death rate are indicative of an
unstable demographic regime vulnerable to external shocks in the
forms of epidemics, famines or famine like situations. The
coefficient of variation which measures the fluctuations in the
Crude Death Rate series is given below
CDR Coefficient of Variation(C.V%)
Years 1872-80 1881-90 1891-00
CDR 33.0
34.6
Years CDR 1901-10 35.5
29.4 1911-20 1921-30 14.5
Source: Based on RSCM, Innes op.cit. and Madras Public Health Annual Report. (c.v= S.D/Mean*100)
36.9
During periods of excess mortality, working adults and the
old rather than children bore the brunt of the hikes in
mortality. In fact child mortality actually declined during
crises years because of reduced births. This is borne out by the
following table on age specific mortality in crisis and non
crisis years. This appears to have dampened the tendency of the
population to rise steeply after crisis years. The lower child
mortality observed during famines and epidemics is largely
[cont.]
sent the death-rate up even higher than it had been in 1918." Census, 1921, p.12.
178
explained by the great drop in births during such times.
Table 5.4 Age Pattern of Crisis and Non-crisis Mortality
1919 Crisis Year
CBR Age Group
0-4 5-14
15-49 50+ Total
10333
5382 10243
124928
33.0 Deaths
31.2 2748 36.1 22.8
100.0
Source: RSCM, 1919, 1924.
1924 Non-crisis Year
39.0 Percentage DeathsPercentage
7125 9.9 995
2416 7257
77685
42.4 8.6
25.4 23.5
100.0
Mortality, with its associated hardships seems to have pushed
down fertility. Years of extreme mortality with the concomitant
increase in disease and dearth could also tend to lead to the
postponement of new marriages, physical separation of husband and
wife ane sterility due to malnutrition. Replacement of a dead
neonate may not be possible immediately because of biological
factors such as post-partum amenorrhea, secondary sterility and
so on. These factors thus tend to increase the gap between a rise
in deaths and a subsequent increase in births.
Age Composition:
179
Table 5.5 Summary Age-sex composition
Age 1891 1901 1911 M F M F M F
0-14 40.1 38.0 40.4 37.9 39.4 37.0 15-44 46.5 47.7 46.0 47.6 47.0 48.4 45+ 13.4 14.3 13.6 14.4 13.6 14.6
Age 1921 1931 M F M F Average
0-14 38.8 36.2 33.9 37.7 37.9 15-44 46.5 48.9 54:0 46.7 47.9 45+ 14.7 14.9 12.2 15.6 14.1
Source: Computed from Census (various issues) .
The age distribution of the Malabar population changed very
little between 1891 and 1931. The population was not very young
when compared to many developing countries, It is known that the
age composition of closed population is determined largely by
mortality and more importantly by fertility. The relatively small
percentage of the youngest age class is a preliminary pointer to
moderate fertility levels. The proportion of this age group also
exhibits a long run decline from 1891 to 1931.
Fertility:
The registration of births suffered even greater neglect than
deaths at the hands of the enumerators. Birth registration
started later than death registration in 1871. The Malabar birth
rate has been corrected here for (i) underestimation of the
180
denominator i.e. total population and (ii) for under coverage.
The crude birth rates published in the RSCM do not adjust for
changes in population between two censuses. This leads to an
artificial rise in the crude rates which have a tendency to
increase progressively between the beginning and end of a census
decade. To adjust for this bias the crude rates have been
calculated on the basis of the estimated population. The number
of deaths have been scaled up by a correction factor for under
registration. The births were then increased using the revised
death statistics. The crude birth rate though a direct measure of
population change caused by fertility is a very rough index with
a number of shortcomings. In calculating the Crude Birth Rate
every enumerated birth in a year is taken as an event and is
added to the total population. This leads to a simultaneous
increase in both the numerator and the denominator, and therefore
tends to conceal changes in fertility. Further, the Crude Birth
Rate uses the entire population as the denominator whereas this
should ideally be the population of women in the reproductive age
groups. In spite of these limitations the Crude Birth Rate has
been used here largely because of the unavailability of better
fertility data annually.
The decennial averages of the corrected and uncorrected CBR
computed from registration data were as follows:
181
Years CBRRAW CBR Revised
1881-90 21.80 33.42 1891-00 30.46 33.38 1801-10 30.53 42.25 1911-20 33.11 46.03 1921-30 37.86 46.96
Source: Computed from RSCM and Census. CBRRAW, CBRRevised denote figures, corrected for change in
denominator and birth rate revised by "Brass Growth Balance method respectively.
These figures suggest moderate fertility. Fertility levels
can also be estimated from the age-sex and nuptiality
distribution given in the Census. Limitations of data allow us
only to estimate indirect measures such as the child woman ratio
(hereafter CWR) directly from the Census figures. The CWR trend
largely corresponds with the Census age distribution of the
proportion of population below age five. The CWR figures and its
comparison with the "rest of India" suggest a much lower level of
fertility, however crude it may be, for Malabar. 33 Unfortunately,
neither the census nor the RSCM provide any data on age specific
fertility which can help in explaining this fertility
differential. However, such a survey was conducted in
33. The CWR figures for 1891, 1901, 1911, 1921, 1931 and 1951 for Malabar are 590, 594, 633 (based on women aged 15-40),536, 622 and 545 respectively. The 1931 figure given for 'Rest of India' by Kingsley Davis is 770. See Davis op.cit., p.71.
182
neighbouring Travancore in 1931 and 1941. Figures 3 shows the age
specific fertility curve between 1931 and 1951. 34
Section IV Explaining Moderate Fertility
The peak in the curve for ages 20-24 to 30 -34 years exhibits
a loss in· convexity during this period suggesting some mechanism
of fertility reduction at work. Available information on the
district's past demographic practices does not suggest the use of
any kind of contraception. Then how does one explain the moderate
fertility?
Nuptiality: A comparison of the CWR for the entire
population and marital CWR yielded interesting clues to
fertility controlling mechanisms. As mentioned earlier the
Malabar CWR was much lower than the all India average. However,
the marital CWR ratios trend much closer to the all India
average. The average difference between the marital and total
CWRs comes to 42 percent between 1891 and 1931. 35 This
unambiguously points to nuptiality as the major proximate I
determinant of Malabar's moderate fertility. With roughly 15 per
34. Data taken from Census of India, Monograph Series, No.7, ~ ~, p.Sl. The 1951 figures are for Travancore-Cochin.
35. Census of India, Madras, 1891 and 1931.
183
cent of the women in the reproductive age groups being returned
as never married, this meant a significant reduction in the
population exposed to the risk of conception. A comparison with
all India estimates reveals that even within the married
population Malabar's fertility was lower than the all-India
average. The percentage of married females in the 15 to 44 age
group continues to be much less in Kerala than for the country as
a whole.36 Madras had the highest proportion of single women
amongst all the provinces in the country, and within Madras
Presidency, Malabar and the West Madras Division registered
the highest figures.3 7
36. The percentage of married females in the 15 to 44 age group in India and Kerala in 1981 was 80.48 and 60.65 respectively. Census of Indias 1981, Part II, Delhi, 1984, p.36. This data is based on a 5 percent sample.
37. According to the 1891 Census report, 'Among females the highest proportion of wives is found in Vizagapatam and the lowest in Malabar. Of widowers, the lowest proportion is 192 in 10,000 males which is the ratio in Malabar.' Census of India, 1891, vol. 13, p.130.
In 1911 the unmarried percentages of men and women of all ages for India and Madras were 40, 36.4, 53.3 and 37.3, respectively. Census of India, 1911, Madras Presidency, p.233.
'The percentage of unmarried persons is higher, both among rna: and females in the West Madras division which confirms the fact that people marry at a later age in that area, particularly in Malabar than in other parts of the State.' Census of India, 1951,
·Madras Presidency, vol.3, Part I, p.180.
184
Marital fertility in Malabar though closer to all India
levels was still lower than the latter. (See Graph-4.2) This may
possibly be related to the relatively higher mean age at first
marriage, suggested by the age wise nuptiality data. This would,
~eteris paribus, not merely postpone higher reproduction rate but
slower the rate of population growth by increasing the length of
a generation. 38 These findings support the
view that institutional factors rather than contraception was
the main mechanism for fertility control in India. 39 In Malabar,
however restrictions on marriage rather than prohibitions on
widow remarriage was the prime check on fertility.
Unfortunately, nuptiality data is not available annually.
This compels us to depend solely on Census point estimates.
Absence of annual nuptiality figures prevents studying it in
association with short term fluctuations in the economy~ such as
prices and output. However, the fact that such a large proportion
of unmarried or never married women was a structural feature of
38. See A.J. Coale and C.T. Tye, 'The significance of AgePatterns of Fertility in High Fertility Populations', Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 39, 4, 1961, pp. 6313-646.
39. Leela Visaria and Pravin Visaria, "Population" in Dharma Kumar, ed., Cambridge Economic History of India, val. 2, Delhi, 1984, p.511.
185
Malabar,s nuptiality pattern prompts one to look to explanations
of long duration. Malabar, fits in well with the south Indian
demographic regime characterized by lower child and infant
mortality, low fertility and low sex ratios. The smallness of the
above indicators have led demographers to characterize it as 'the
most "southern" of states in the south.' 40 Here we argue that
nuptial practices constituted the primary proximate determinant
of relatively lower fertility in this area.
Differences in demographic behaviour have been sought to be
explained by structuralist analysis of kinship systems, agrarian
ecology and status of women. 41 Arguments based on kinship
differences are limited by the inability to explain demographic
changes over time. Similarly the agrarian ecology thesis is
flawed by its insensitivity to the.cultural variations and class
and community differences within economically defined culture
zones. This brings us to explanations based on differences in the
40. Tim Dyson and Mick Moore, 'On Kinship Structure, Female Autonomy, and Demographic Behavior in India,, Pqpulation Studies, 9, 1, 1983, p.42.
41. See Iravati Karve, Kinship Organization in India, Deccan College Monograph Series, Madras, 1953; L. Dumont and D.Pocock, "Kinship", Contributions to Indian Sociology, 1957; M.P. Moore, 'Cross-Cultural surveys of peasant family structures: Some comments", American Anthropologist, 75, no.3, 1975 and Tim Dyson and Mick Moore, op. cit.
186
contributions to natal home to be more important. 42
These explanations have been used by demographers to explain
varying levels of fertility and the status of women. One problem
with these explanations is their refusal to historicize, this
becomes all the more acute because the explicand is historical
change. For instance, kinship patterns may remain nominally
unchanged for a long time, but material changes often affect
their de facto working which can significantly affect fertility
behaviour. The need is to abandon attempts at mere empirical
replication of narrowly focussed functional studies and emphasise
on the changing institutional reality of different historical
settings.
To understand the level of colonial fertility in Malabar, we
will first isolate the probable determinants and then study how
it changed over a period of about half a century. In demographic
terms we have argued that the most crucial proximate determinant
of fertility, for which data is available, was nuptiality.
Marriage practices are usually influenced by a host of
nondemographic factors such as economic considerations,
42. For a similar view see Leela Visaria, nRegional Variations in Female Autonomy and Fertility and Contraception in India", Gujarat Institute of Development Research, Working Paper Series, No.so.
187
terms we have argued that the most crucial proximate determinant
of fertility, for which data is available, was nuptiality.
Marriage practices are usually influenced by a host of
nondemographic factors such as economic considerations,
adaptations to ecology, the demands of the dominant production
system and culturally defined practices.
Alice Clarke in an article on north central Gujarat, has
suggested the use of infanticide and the control of reproduction
by certain communities to facilitate upward social and economic
mobility. Developing Clark's suggestion further, Sumit Guha
argues that 'significant parts of India were characterized by a
demographic regime of (unwitting?) fertility control by the
upwardly mobile~ while poverty and economic stress limited the
numbers of the lower classes, resulting in slow overall
growth.' 43 Guha argues against the classification of areas of
fertility control via marriage by ecozone, in favour of crediting
'the socio-political systems that generated status ranking and
hypergamous marriages with an independent efficacy of its own.' 44
43. Sumit Guha, 'The Population History of South Asia from the Seventeenth to the Twentoieth Centuries: An Exploration/, Conference on Asian Population History, Taipei, January 1996, p.17.
44. ibid.
188
While Guha's hypothesis is helpful in theorizing on pre
transitional fertility control mechanisms, his contention that
control of fertility through marriage was absent in the
agriculturally secure west coast is wrong. Malabar with its well
known marriage codes is a case in point. Further, as this region
was always beyond the pale of Mughal control it would be
difficult to argue that Malabar~s marriage reducing arrangements
were in any way influenced by the practices of the expanding
Mughal empire.
It is a well known fact that the proportion of never married
was the highest among Christians and the lowest among the
Muslims. But Indian Christians did not form a significant part of
Malabar's population. This leaves us with the Hindus who formed
about 70 percent of Malabar's population. 45 The Hindus, in
Malabar included a wide range of sharply demarcated caste groups
that varied significantly both in terms of cultural practices and
class. At the very top of the Kerala caste hierarchy stood
Nambudiri Brahmans. The high caste patrilineal and patrilocal
Brahmin Nambudiris were traditionally wealthy noncultivating
landlords. The Nambudiris had exclusivist marriage rules which
45. Hindus# Muslims, Christians and Others formed 70.58, 27.58, 1.83 and 0.16 percent of the total population in 1881. Logan, Malabak, vol.l, Madras, 1951, p.178.
189
permitted only the eldest son in a Nambudiri family to marry a
Nambudiri woman. Only children born of such couples were
recognized as Nambudiris. Children born of sambandbarns
between Nambudiri males and Nayar women were not included in
the Nambudiri caste. This greatly increased the proportion of
unmarried Nambudiri women or antarjanams, who were subjected to
celibacy for life.
While the Nambudiris, ranked first in the normative caste
hierarchy and as landlords in south Malabar, the matrilineal,
matrilocal Naira formed the politically most vocal section of the
Hindu population. The Naira, traditionally warriors and rulers in
precolonial Malabar, were the first to enter the colonial
bureaucracy and imbibe Western education. The traditional Nair
matrilineal household was called the tharavad. This property was
impartible, and inheritance was down the female line.
However, during our period the tharavad was managed by the
eldest male member of the family, resulted in a number of
tensions in this system. Nair girls were, ritually married to a
Brahmin before they attained puberty. After this they were free
to enter into sexual relations with one or more Brahmin or Nair
males. These relations could also be terminated with ease. Thus
marriage relations did not mean a severance of relations with
natal home and kin. A study of matrilineal Ashanti women, who
190
strongly resembled the matrilineal Nayars of Kerala, found the
system to be consistent with powerful sanctions for high
fertility. 46 However, sanction for terminating such unions and
female control over sexuality appear to have countered the logic
of high fertility built into the Nayar sexual and nuptial·code.
Further, in North Malabar the Nayars were largely monogamous. The
other two major caste groups were those of Tiyas and Cherumans.
The self-cultivating Tiyas, who were traditionally coconut
growers and toddy tappers, followed the matrilineal system in
North Malabar and the patrilineal system in south Malabar. The
untouchable Cherumans were agrestic serfs or landless labourers.
This numerically large caste was patrilineal. A common feature of
all the non-
Brahmin castes was the ease with which marriages and sexual
unions could be terminated.
This classification by caste, however, gives a false picture
of homogeneous castes. The Nayars or the Tiyas, for example, were
characterized by significant internal stratification in terms of
occupation and class.
_ The high proportion of unmarried women can be directly linked
46. See Frank Lorimer, Culture and Human Fertility, New York, 1979. p. 73.
191
only to Narnbudiri marriage restrictions. The Nambudiris, however,
formed less than three percent of the population and could not
influence the nuptiality rates for the entire population of the
district. The Nayars on the other hand, could ritually never be
widowed. The high proportion of unmarried Nayars in the
reproductive age groups, going up to more than 80% and more than
20% for males and females respectively in the 17-23 age group (in
1931) appears fantastically high. It may be argued that the
census enumerators wrongly returned Nayars women who had
sampandham as unmarried. This, however, does not appear
correct because when we move to older age categories such as 24-
44 years, for instance, the proportion of unmarried reduces to
roughly 20 and ten percent for males and females. The other
reason why Census ~uptiality data should not be rejected is that
the high proportions of never married or unmarried were also
registered for non-Nayar castes such the Tiyas and Cherumans, who
did not follow practices such as sarnbandham which the colonial
mind might have refused to accept as marriage.
A look at the age-wise nuptial status reveals a high age of
first marriage across castes. The Nayars had the highest age of
first marriage, followed by the Nambudiris, Tiyas and Cherumans.
The fairly late age of marriage among the servile Cherumans who
came lowest in the ritual and economic hierarchy does not suggest
192
that education was a major factor in postponing marriages. The
increasing age of first marriage suggested by the nuptiality data
seems to be the result of two distinct set of factors. First,
neither of the two dominant castes of the area- the Nambudiris
and the Nayars, attached great value to a early effective
marriage. The practice of compulsory celibacy for ntoSt of the
Nambudiri women and the ephemeral nature of Nayar GambePdham,
seem to have legitimized non-marriage and the idea of easy
dissolution of marriages. Though the lower castes did not follow
the Nayar or Nambudiri marriage rules and. practices, they also
emphasised easy termination of marriages. Significant changes
came about in the marriage practices of the Nayars. Sambandhams
were gradually frowned upon by the educated Nayar elite, who saw
it as mechanism and vestige of Nambudiri exploitation. From the
late nineteenth century, with an increasing number of Nayar males
entering the colonial bureaucracy, there was a small shift away
from the matrilocal residence pattern towards neolocal and
virilocal households. Though this did not immediately become a
widespread phenomenon, it increasingly came to be looked upon as
the most desirable form of family and household. The new ideal
Nayar family in the late 19th century, depicted in Ravi Varmas's
1.93
portraits was the small nuclear househo~d. 47 Census figures for
the entire population, however, do not indicate any dramatic
decline in household size. In fact, a sharp increase can be seen
in 1951. This has been explained in terms of an increase in the
birth rate and a decrease in mortality in Malabar. Along with
this emigration decreased and there was a return of emigrants on
a large scale from Burma, Ceylon and Malaya. 48
Table 5.6 Change in Household Size
Year Persons per house
Madras West Madras Division 1891 5.3 5.7 1901 5.3 5.7 1911 5.3 5.6 1921 5.1 5.4 1931 5.1 5.6 1941 5.1 5.6 1951 5.3 6.1a
Sources: Census of India, 1931, Madras, v.14, Part I, p.51; Census of India, 1941, v.2, Madras, p.5.
a Refers to rural population, Census of India, 1951, Madras, v.3, Part I, p.15.
Notwithstanding this increase, a slightly decreasing trend
is seen from 1891 to 1941. Given a rising population this
suggests a trend towards the setting up of more households.
47. G.Arunima, 'Matriliny and its discontents', India International Centre Qu9rterly, Summer/Monsoon 1995, p.162.
48. Census of India, 1951, Madras, v.3, Part I, p.15.
194
Ethnographic studies also support the census information.
Kathleen Gough's study of changing household structure in a
village in central Kerala between 1948-49 and 1964 sugg.ests a
decrease in complexity but only a slight decrease in size. Gough
found that the average size of households decreased from 6.8
members in 1949 to 6.4 members in 1964. 49 She also found greater
reliance on individual occupations to be associated with the
tendency to live in nuclear households or in simpler kinds of
joint households.so
The increase in the partitioning of Nayar taravads and the
move away from agriculture towards the service sector appears to
have been responsible for this phenomenon. It must be recognized
that the proportion of the population married, and the effective
age of first marriage are not merely cultural artefacts but are
closely connected with changing material conditions.
This brings us to another factor which could have stimulated
the postponement of marriage- the move away from agriculture
towards the service sector. The agrarian population of Malabar
constituted roughly sixty percent of the total population till
49. Kathleen Gough, "Changing households in Kerala" in Dhirendra Narain, ed., Explorations in the family and other essays, Bombay, 1965, p.237.
50. ibid., p.264.
195
the 1930s. By 1951 this declined to about fifty one percent.
Interestingly, the decline in agricultural occupations was offset
not by an increase in trade, industry or commerce but in the
residual census category of 'Others' . This points to a marked
increase in the service sector, an area which has not received
any scholarly attention. This shift in the district's
occupational structure acted as a catalyst in the break-up of the
Nayar taravad and the demand for the abolition of matriliny. With
the decline of landlord run large wet paddy cultivation, there
was a trend towards the greater use of casual wage labour in
place of tied labour.
Fertility measures exhibit some correspondence with caste and
occupational classes. Once again only CWR figures are available.
Upper caste fertility is seen to be slightly lower than for lower
castes.
Table 5.7 Caste-wise C.W.R 1891
Nambudiri Cheruman Tiyan Parayan
526 618 626 659
Source Census, 1891, 1921.
1921
569 590 609 639
In 1921 once again we find the same trend. The proportion of
196
children under 14 to married women between ages 14 and 43
were 191, 214 and 195 respectively for Malayali Brahmins, Nayars
and Paraiyans. 51 The 1951 census gives occupation-wise and not
caste wise fertility data. However, the fertility differentials
noticed in the earlier caste based figures appear to persist.
Cultivators (both tenants and landlords) had a CWR of 588 while
cultivating labourers and rent receivers returned a CWR of 508
and 468 respectively.52 Since the CWR uses the number of children
aged 0 to 5 years as the numerator, it has a tendency to
understate actual fertility among the lower castes because infant
and child mortality would be higher among the poorer
castes/classes compared to the Brahmins and the Nayars. If births
were taken as the numerator we could expect larger differentials
in fertility. These estimates suggest a weakly correlated
relationship between fertility on the one hand and occupation and
property inheritance, on the other.
Fertility indices also showed some correlation with market
fluctuations. The detrended CBR exhibited a statistically
significant causal connection with prices with a two year lag
51. Census of India, Madras, 1931, v.l, p. 122.
52. Census of.India, Madras, 1951.
197
between 1874 and 1930.53 Studies of preindustrial England and
imperial China have showed how nuptiality responded strongly to
short term economic fluctuations. 54 In the absence of annual
nuptiality data we can only speculate that this fertility
reduction during economically hard times was effected through
postponement of marriages. Conscious fertility control within
marriages is not indicated by the data examined. Fertility
exhibited some congruence with landholding patterns, caste and
inheritance rules.
Section v Morta1ity-Economy Relationship
Describing the movements in the death rate in Madras the RSCM
and the Census reports repeatedly emphasized a close correlation
between mortality and prices. The annual reports of the Sanitary
Commissioner regularly published the monthly price of foodgrains
and printed graphs of monthly movements in the CDR and the price
53. Least Squares Regression Residual CBR = Residual Price of Rice(-2) X-0.0329*+ Constant X - 0.0329 * significant at t0.10 n=44
54. See Wrigley and Schofield, The population history of England, 1541-1871, Cambridge, 1981; James Lee, 'The historical demography of late imperial China: recent research result and implications', mimeo, 1992.
198
-of foodgrains.ss Given Malabar's high level of commercialization
of agriculture, its status as a net rice importer and the very
high proportion of agricultural labourers to the total agrarian
population, the reported connection between price and mortality
seems plausible. However, the lagless direct association between
mortality hikes and rice prices implied by the RSCM appears to be
a case of exaggeration.
In terms of the sectoral movement, population engaged in
agricultural occupations increased by about 33 per cent while
that in non-agricultural occupations increased by 96.5 per cent
between 19~1 and 1951. Interestingly, the decline in agricultural
population is offset not by an increase in those in trade,
connnerce or industry, but by residual census class of "Others"
{see Table 4.8b below). This points to a spectacular increase in
the service sector. The increase in non-agricultural occupations
55. "There is a very close connection between prices of food and mortality of a population, and the connection is especially apparent in a country like India, where at best of times, from twenty to thirty percent of the people have difficulty in finding sufficient food." RSCM, 1877, p.10; see also RSCM, 1893.
199
was largely caused by a growth in 'Other ' occupations. 56 What
complicates the situation is that various occupational groups
constituting the population were differentially involved in the
market. Agricultural labour, especially "tied labour" was paid
fixed paddy wages throughout our period. Although their wages
were barely enough even for mere survival, this would imply that
this section of the population was fairly well insulated from and
immune to fluctuations in food prices. The increase in the
category of 'cultivating landlords' is compensated somewhat by
the slight increase in the number and proportion of agricultural
labourers, the spectacular rise in the category 'Others' and a
marked fall in the proportion and number of rent-receivers. All
these categories were dependent on the market for food, but only
varyingly contributing to the price-mortality nexus.
Agricultural labourers and cultivating tenants, who increased as
a proportion of the total population, were the numerically
do~inant occupational group. Non-cultivating landlords and
56. Krishnamurthy rightly observes Kerala's remarkably low dependenGe on agricultural. Neither his figures on the distribution of male working force in India between 1911 and 1951 for Malabar and Cochin nor our occupational figures of the whole population suggest any increase in 'trade and commerce' despite a marked increase in the value of aggregate trade. See J. Krishnamurthy, CEHI, Table 6.6 and pp.543-44.
200
tenants decreased in proportion to the aggregate, while
cultivating landlords increased. (See Tables 4.Ba and b)
Table 4.8a Occupational Distribution
1871 1881 1891 1901** 1911 1921 CUlt. 79060 98883 96220 108917 Landlords (2.99) (3.54) {3.19) (3.51} Non-cult 78365 80323 74549 22784 Llords {2.97) (2.88) (2.47) (0.74} Cult. 147673* 639899 686579 821462 899050 tenants {24.22) {24.61) (27.24) (29.01) Non-cult. 44553 15121 24923 22784 tenants {1.69) (0.54) (0.83) (0.74) Agricult.311242 325086 624631# 824965 762591 775208 lab. (13.76) (13.74) (23.64) (29.57) (25.29) (25.02) Total Pop. 2261250 2365035 2641928 2790281 3015119 3098871
Source: Imperial Census of India. Madras * Madras Census, Talukwar Statements-Malabar District, Final Census Table XII-C, 1881- Cultivating and non-cultivating tenants are not shown separately. ** 1901 figures has a separate heading "dependents". For the sake of comparability the males, females and dependents have been aggregated. # Total of sub-order 11. Includes farm servants, field labourers and crop watchers. Percentage of total population given in brackets.
Table 4.8b Occupational Distribution, 1911 and 1951
1 A 2 B 3 ----~--------------------------------------------~---Ag~icultural Occypations Cultivating Landowners 90.20 4.95 Tenants 821.50 45.06 Agricultural Labourers 762.00 41.79 Rent Receivers 99.50 5.46 Cultivators of
307.90 12.67 1~6.19 953.70 39.26 -12.87
1067.90 43.96 5.18 99.80 4.11 -24.72
201
special products 50.00 2.74 Total I ~823.20 100.00 2429.30 100.00 0.00
Nqn-Agricultural Occupations NonAgricultural Commodity Production Commerce and Transport Others Total II
Total of I and II
566.60
367.40 251.30
1185.30
23.90
15.50 10.60 50.00
2370.6 100.00
771.60
561.10 996.20
2328.90
16.57
12.05 21.39 50.00
4657.8 100.00
-30.69
-22.27 1.01.76
96.50
0.00
Source: Based on population figures in Varghese, qp. c~t., p.126 Note: The 1951 population figures include "dependents"
1: Population in 1911 · A: Percentage of suborder total in 1911 2: Population in 1951 B: Percentage of suborder total in 1951 3: Percentage Change between A and B
The technological level of Malabar's agriculture was low compared to other ecologically similar districts of Madras. This is evident from the following uncorrected Standard Yield statistics for 1946-47:
Malabar Cauvery Delta-Tanjore Godavari-Krishna Delta
1,400 lb. per acre 1,750 lb. per acre 1,900 lb. per acre
The per capita output of paddy decreased by 13.3 per cent
between 1904-5 and 1920-21 (continuous output figures were not
available for earlier years). While the per acre productivity
decreased by 4.3 per cent between 1904-5 to 1920-21. population
increased by 11.1 per cent, pushing up the rice deficit. Malabar
became incr~asingly more dependent on the market for the
202
fulfillment of its food requirements.
Table 4.9
Year
1891 1901 1911 1921 1941 1951
Pgpulation and Food Qutput
Aggregate Population
2,641,928 2,790,281 3,015,119 3,098,871 3,9294,25 4,758,342
Estimated paddy output in tons
per annum
355,324 380,907 442,509 537,100 338,550 306,000
Per capita paddy output
(lb.)
301.27 305.79 328.75 388.24 192.99 144.05
Source: Based on Madras Census, RSCM and SAMP
According to the R.S.C.M of 1877, "in Malabar wages are paid
in kind ... The great majority of the agricultural labourers are
permanently entertained by the landowners, and they are paid 1-
1/5 measures a day {nearly 5 lbs.) whether they work or not." 57
Price hikes and food scarcities-are generally most cruel to.
that class of population which is just above the subsistence
level. In Malabar this section of the population was the class of
agricultural labourers who ranked lowest in both the normative
and economic hierarchies. If this most vulnerable class of people
were immune to price changes, then one should not find any marked
57. RSCM, 1877
203
correlation between prices and mortality.
However this does not seem to have been true as there was a
marked correlation between rice prices and mortality. For such an
association between these two variables, one has to have a
population which is very dependent on the market and thus,
extremely sensitive to price fluctuations. For such a population
one or more of the following conditions had to be true:
(i) The fixed component of the labourer's wages
was not adequate to meet his minimum food
needs.
(ii) A significant part of his wages was paid in
(iii)
some medium which was responsible to price
changes.
The prevalence of large scale distress sale
and subsequent dependence on the market for
food requirement by agricultural labourers
and other kinds of peasants.
That a part of the labourer's income was fixed proportion of
the harvest is suggested by a contemporary report. 58 If this was
so, then a bad harvest would simultaneously lower the labourer's
58. "The prosperity of the farm labourers was dependent on the harvest" R.S.C.M, ~877, Appendix I, p.vi.
204
share and push up the prices. Buchanan, in the early nineteenth
century observed that the fixed component of kind wages was not
sufficient even for the bare subsistence of the agricultural
labourer.
Further, it must be kept in ~ind that fixed paddy wages were
largely restricted to the tied agrestic labourers who were
virtually serfs, and did not apply to free labour. With the turn
of the century there was a progressive shift to money wages.
We have references from the early 20th century, that even
labourers paid in paddy, often sold their earnings in the market
to procure non-food requirements. When this was done the
shopkeepers normally paid them a price lower than the market
price, while their purchases were made at prevailing market
prices. 59 Dharma Kumar has argued that even the kind wages of
agrestic labour in Malabar was not fixed. In the light of our
findings, this seems to be plausible. For the years 1914 to 1916,
we have some interesting oral evidence, which reveals a variety
of modes of payment. According to the interviewee, a landlord, in
those days the labourers did only uchha pani, that is work from
morning to noon, for which they received only cash or coolie
59. See V.Krishna Aiyar, "Guruvayur," in Slater, ed., Some South Indian Villages, O.U.P, London, 1918, p.154
205
without food. For all kinds of non-agricultural work the coolie
was 2 annas a day, while for harvesting, it was given at the rate
of one measure for every eight measures that the landlord got. 60
These details were more or less corroborated by another landlord
from the same place.61
The above mentioned observations suggest that there was a
multiplicity of modes of remuneration and the real income of the
agricultural labour was directly related to agricultural output
and inversely related to price increases. When wages were paid in
money, price increases immediately lowered the real wages. on the
other hand when payment was made in kind, often as a proportion
of the output, price increases would adversely affect the agri
cultural worker's or share cropper's income only if the output
was inversely related to price. A decrease in the output in such
a situation would lower the absolute amount of paddy that the
labourer received or in other words result in a fall in his
wages. It would also simultaneously enhance the cost of his non
paddy requirements (the prices of which would go up with the rise
in rice prices) .
60. Interview with Meethile Veetil Nanu Narnbiar, Landlord, aged 84 in Sep., 1985 r/o Nettur Amsom, Kottayam Taluk.
61. Interview with Edathatta Meenakshi Amma, Land Lady, aged 80 years in Sep., 1985, r/o Nettur Amsom, erstwhile Kottayam Taluk.
206
In view of the above modes of wage payment price increases
could and did lower the real wages of agricultural labourers.
Malabar's agrarian economy was characterized by a high and
virtually unchanging level of inequality in the distribution of
land holdings. Gini Coefficients (G) with number of pattas in
each revenue class and revenue assessment on each class as
variables are as follows:
Table 4.10 Ineguality in Land Revenue Incidence Year Gini Coefficient
1881-82 1891-92 1910-11 1920-21 1930-31
. 0.666 0.664 0.764 0.747 0.749
Source: Computed from SAMP figures.
Malabar had more than 75 per cent of the cultivators classed
in the Rs.0-10 revenue paying category, which was the lowest 1
throughout our period.
Given the highly skewed nature of land distribution, a mass
of dwarf holders and widespread money lending, one can safely
assume the existence of distress sale, and consequently the
subsistence of the small farmers were linked to price
fluctuation.
Price increases were the cumulative result of lowered local
output and shortfalls or delay in rice imports. In addition to
207
certain years being marked by high prices, price hikes occurred
annually, in the rainy months following the harvest of the fist
crop. It is in such a scenario that mortality and prices exhibit
a close correlation throughout our period.
Table 4.11 : Correlation Coefficients of Q.D.R and Price of Rice. Second Sort {1st Differences>
Year
1872-79 1890-99 1900-10 1910-20
r
0.418* 0.844* 0.590* 0.780
Source: Based on R.S.C.M and SAMP * denotes r is significant at t O.OOS
Working with the general hypothesis that demographic
movements were related significantly to the conditions of
production it would be pertinent to check whether the mortality
-price nexus varied between talyks with dissimilar production
conditions. Kottayam, Wynad, Palghat and Ponnani were selected to
check for variations in the causal significance of prices dn
mortality. The values of the explanatory variables were higher in
the 1893 to 1902 period when compared with the 1916 to 1930
period. Mortality in taluks which were engaged in the production
of garden crops and heavily dependent on imported rice such as
the northern talu~s exhibited a much greater sensitivity to price
changes.
208
Table 4.12 Least Squares regression results of prices on total deaths for selected talyks
Time Taluk C(l) C{2) Const. t-Statistic for C{l) C(2}
----------------·-----------------------------------------1893-Kottayam 9.9978 4.9692 -28.210 2.012** 0.335
Kurumbr. 15.950 3.892 -57.506 2.580** 0.649 Wynad 5.5468 6. 0390 -18.113 1.251* 1.340
1902 Pal ghat 3.8167 4.9761 -13.428 0.176 1.011
1916 Kottayam 2.0915 0.4822 4.632 Kurumbr. -1.0483 1.785 16.228 1.315 -0.743 Wynad 0.1170 2.8172 19.432 0.045 0.828
1930 Palghat 2.5425 -2.4626 25.330 2.607** -2.4524**
Source: RSCM Gazetteer of Malabar, vol.II and SAMP. C(1), C(2) and C(3) denote the coefficients for the independent variables taluk price of rice, taluk price of rice(t-1) and Constant term respectively.** and * denote signif2cance of t at 5% and 10% levels.
In the months after the first harvest food stocks ran low
and the demand for agricultural labour was at its lowest. With no
work and little grain available for the agricultural labourers
and small farmers, June, July and early August were months of
extreme privation. It was during this period that the maximum
number of deaths occurred. The monsoons prevented fishing and
pushed up the cost of this supplementary food item also. Further,
it was during such times of subsistence crisis tllat fever, which
was the single largest killer disease in Malabar, struck most
viciously and cruelly. This yearly subsistence crisis enhanced
209
the fatal potential of fevers. This can be substantiated
statistically. Denoting the price of rice, CDR and fevers by 1, 2
and 3 respectively, we observe for the period 1900-1926 the
following correlation coefficients:
Table 4.13 Correlation Coefficients Rice Price, CDR and "Fevers"
Zero Order Correlation r 1 2 - 0.454 r 2 3 - 0.210
Partial Correlation r 2 3.1 - 0.248 r 2 1.3 - 0.505
0.206 0.044
0.062 0.255
The lower coefficient of the partial correlation when price
was held constant than when price changes were accounted
for,suggests that the price variable was an important determinant
in enhancing the intensity and killing capability of fevers.
The pattern of monthly distribution of births indicates that
the maximum number of births occurred in July. (See Table 4.14).
The large number of births in this lean month must put further
economic burdens on the poorer families. If July was the modal
month for births, then it appears that the maximum number of
conceptions took place in September. Although we know virtually
nothing about contraceptive practices in colonial Malabar, an
absence of effective contraceptive methods has been assumed~-
210
This deduction is supported by the fact that the month of Chingam
(mid-August to mid-September) was considered the most opportune
time for marriages. This was the month of Onam, the district's
harvest festival, when the monsoon eases and the peasant and
agricultural labourers look forward to the coming harvest and
times of plenty.
Table 4.14 Monthly Distribution of Births and Deaths in Malabar.
Month 1871 1880 1905-10 (average) Births Deaths Births Deaths Births Deaths
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
3036 2709 3142 3145 4226 3903 4060 3994 3918 3721 3353 3032
Source: RSCM
2604 2473 2350 2334 2269 2386 2870 2558 2213 2207 1988 2197
3129 3656 4170 3757 3766 4171 5112 4066 3550 3499 4142 3161
2609 2527 2545 2424 2681 2835 3495 3026 3026 N.A. 2652 2448
6204 5824 6000 5390 6233 7142 9201 9720 6530 5495 5867 6950
Thus it becomes clear that given the above described pattern
of income distribution, market conditions, extent of
commercialization, the population's occupational distribution,
climatic conditions and endemic diseases, mortality movements
were the cumulative result of a complex interaction between these
211
different processes. Mortality in colonial rural Malabar may be
termed as "output-price dependent mortality".In Malabar it
appears that while on the one hand mortality was the chief
determinant of population size, this was in turn dependent on
agricultural output-price changes. On the other hand population
change impacted upon some constitutive processes of the agrarian
structure, but not on others.
Section VI Popu1atian and Output
Scholars such as Clifford Geertz and Esther Boserup have argued
against the view that population increase depresses economic
development. In nineteenth century Java Geertz found that a rapid
rise in population was countered by increasingly complex
cooperative institutions. This prevented any decline in
agricultural productivity. 62 The data for Malabar does not
suggest any phenomenon similar to 'agricultural involution'. The
Malabar experience, however, however tends to support Boserup's
denial of an automatic inverse relation between population growth
and agricultural development.63 One finds a parallel upward trend
62. Clifford Geertz, Agricultural involution: the process of ecological change in Indonesia, Berkeley, 1968, pp.69-82.
63. See E. Boserup, op.cit. and Boserup, Population and technological change. a study of long term trends, Chicago, 1981.
212
in population and area under occupation but there appears to be
no association between the rate of increase in population and in
area occupied. Similarly, there is no association between
population increase and per acre productivity. 64
Table 4.15 Population Change and Extension of Cultivated Area
Year
1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921
Total Cumulative Total area Popula- %age rate in occupa-tion of change tion
2261250 2365033 2641928 2790281 3015119 3098871
in popula- in acres tion
+ 1.004 + 1.011. + 1.005 + 1.008 + 1.003
1147146 N.A
1953125 1309545 1392655 1442346
Source: Logan, gp.cit., Innes, op.cit.
Cumulative %age rate of change
- 0.009 + 1.035 + 0.006 + 0.004
S.A.M.P, A.S.I and Madras Cenaus (relevant years).
From the above discuss it clearly emerges that population change
in Malabar was the immediate product of differences between
fertility and mortality, with fertility being the more important
variable. Both fertility and mortality were closely related to
economic changes in the agrarian economy and its social
64. See chapter 3 for agricultural output and productivity trends. Population continues to increase even after the downturn in paddy output.
213
I
practices. While demographic change can be unambiguously related
to the internal working of the society, its independent impact on
various indices of agrarian change is difficult to establish in
the case of Malabar.
214