46652353 Nomura US Economic Weekly 2011-01-07 Copy
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Nomura Securities International Inc. See Disclosure Appendix A1 for the Analyst Certification and Other Important Disclosures US Economic Weekly Economics Research | Americas ROUNDUP: FINISHING STRONG 2-3 A broad array of data indicates activity accelerated late in 2010 and the tax rate extension compromise struck in early December should ensure that momentum carries into 2011. OUTLOOK: FIRMER TURF ON THE RECOVERY ROAD 4 The late-2010 pick-up in economic activity looks likely to carry into the first half of 2011, but persistent headwinds should slow growth in the second half of the year. PREVIEW OF THE WEEK AHEAD 5-6 The retail sales and Beige Book reports should point to greater momentum in activity. US ECONOMIC CALENDAR 7 WEEK IN REVIEW 8 GLOBAL LETTER: NEW YEAR’S STOCK TAKE 9 Developments in the past month have been broadly in line with our global outlook for 2011. GLOBAL ECONOMIC CALENDAR 10 Market watch Notes: Values are as of Thursday close; conventional mortgage rate is weekly figure f rom FHLMC; Overnight indexed swap (OIS) rate is expected average Fed funds rate; ABX is index of subprime RMBS credit default swaps; CMBX is index of CMBS credit default swaps; Sources: Bloomberg, Markit, Bankrate.com, FHLMC, Federal Reserve and Haver Analytics. Uni ts Lates t 1wk ago 1m ago 6m ago 12m ago Fixed income 3m USD LIBOR % 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.53 0.25 Spread to OIS bp 12 12 13 34 10 2yr Treasury yi el d % 0.63 0.61 0.54 0.63 1.03 10yr Treasury yi eld % 3.36 3.30 3.15 3.00 3.85 10yr TIPS breakeven % 2.35 2.30 2.23 1.70 2.41 30yr m ortgage rate % 4.86 4.86 4.46 4.58 5.14 30yr j umbo rate % 5.55 5.54 5.35 5.49 6.08 CDX.IG bp 75 78 83 116 79 AAA ABX P ri ce 45.8 44.2 44.9 42.6 36.5 AAA CMBX P ri ce 97.7 97.6 97.4 93.4 93.9 Equities S&P 500 I ndex 1,270 1,258 1,224 1,060 1,142 Percent change since % -- 1.0 3.8 19.8 11.3 NASDAQ Index 2,681 2,653 2,598 2,159 2,300 Percent change since % -- 1.1 3.2 24.2 16.6 VI X i ndex % 17.4 17.8 18.0 26.8 19.1 Fore ign e xcha nge E UR $/€ 1.33 1.34 1.33 1.26 1.43 GB P $/₤ 1.56 1.56 1.58 1.52 1.59 JPY ¥/$ 82.0 81.1 83.0 87.2 93.3 Commodities WTI crude oil $/bl 89.4 89.8 88.7 74.1 82.7 January 2011 Global Economics Contributing Economicts David H. Resler avid.resler@nomura.com +1 212 667-2415 Aichi Amemiya [email protected] +1 212 667-9347 ach Pandl [email protected] +1 212 667-9668 his report can be accessed electronically ia: www.nomura.com/research or on Bloomberg (NOMR)
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