45th Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll Results

8/8/2019 45th Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll Results

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The 45th

Omnibus Poll™

Independent Poll

“ ”

Fall 2010 – November 2nd Elections

5 Milk Street, Portland, Maine 04101

Tel: (207) 871-8622www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com

Named Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 by:



BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY

• Background ……………………………………………………..…. 4• Methodology …………………………………………........................5

• Maine 2010 Gubernatorial Race……………………………..….….9

KEY FINDINGS

………………...

• Question 1 – Oxford Casino …………………………………….25

• Question 3 – Land Preservation Bond …………………………...27

• Support levels for Banning Texting while Driving in Maine …....….29

DEMOGRAPHIC DATA

2Pan Atlantic SMS Omnibus Poll ™Maine’s Best Pollster 2008

• ey o emograp c a a…………………..….…………….…



y Pan Atlantic SMS Group is Maine’s largest independent marketing research andth .

y This Omnibus survey is the 45th in a series of Omnibus surveys conducted by PanAtlantic SMS Grou on Maine ublic olic , economic and business issues. U

P

y Because we have conducted this poll on a frequent basis over a long time period

(since 1996), we are in a unique position to provide reliable benchmarking on a S G R O

range o mportant ssues.

y Pan Atlantic SMS Group reserves all copyright and property rights associated with T I C

S

.

Group Omnibus Poll¥ must identify the source of information. Reproduction, byany party other than the media, is subject to express approval by Pan Atlantic SMSGroup. For further information, please contact Patrick Murphy, President of Pan

- - T L A N

,[email protected].

4Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll ™ P A

N

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008



y The most recent Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll¥ was conducted betweenOctober 11th and 15th, 2010. This independent survey data on the November 2010

.

y A randomly selected, stratified statewide sample of 501 “likely” Maine voters wasinterviewed by telephone. Each Congressional District had approximately half of t e samp e. e survey was a m n stere on y to t ose w o u e t e o ow ngcriteria:

¾ Registered Maine voter

¾ Voted in the 2008 Presidential Elections

¾ “Certain”, “Very likely”, or “Likely” to vote in the November 2010 Elections.

¾ Do not, nor anyone in their household, work for a market research, advertising ormedia firm.

L O G Y

y The poll was conducted by phone, in our in-house interviewing center, by PanAtlantic’s team of experienced interviewers. No outside interviewer sources wereused.

O D O

y Survey results were weighted to ensure that the poll results are representative of

the various demographic segments of Maine’s population.5 M

E T

Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll ™Maine’s Best Pollster 2008



Methodology y It should be noted that figures may not always equal 100.0 percent due to the

rounding of decimals.

y Although the survey instrument was administered only to registered voters whosaid that they are likely to vote on November 2nd, the results contained hereinre resent a sna shot of voters’ o inions at a oint in time. The do not ur ort topredict final poll results.

y As Election Day was approximately two weeks away at the time the poll

was conc u e , c anges n na voter e av or may we occur etween

then and Election Day. This could result from increased voter scrutiny of

the candidates and their positions on issues, media coverage, editorials,

advertising, etc. L O G Y

O D O

6Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll ™ M E T




Methodology y The sample was stratified based on the most recently available U.S. Census of

Population and Housing data. The sample size has statistical significance of + 4.4.

be repeated, 95 times out of 100 the results would reflect the results of this surveywithin the + 4.4 percent margin of error. The results are broken out by variousdemographic subsamples, including Congressional District, political party affiliation,

. - .percent margin of error for the entire sample.

The Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus poll is an independent poll. Pan

Atlantic SMS Group has not been paid by or acted as volunteer to any of

the campaigns on which data is reported in this poll.

L O G Y

O D O

7Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll ™ M E T




I am going to read you the names of some people running for public office inI am going to read you the names of some people running for public office inMaine. For each person, I would like you to tell me if you have aMaine. For each person, I would like you to tell me if you have a “very favorable” “very favorable” ,,

“somewhat avorable”, “somewhat un avorable”,“somewhat avorable”, “somewhat un avorable”, oror “ver un avorable“ver un avorable” o inion of ” o inion of them. If you aren’t familiar with that person, just say so.them. If you aren’t familiar with that person, just say so. [Scale was rotated]

Favorability Level of Gubernatorial Candidates (N=501)

43.3% 21.2% 35.5%Eliot Cutler

S

45.3%

41.3%

42.5%

47.5%

12.2%

11.2%

Libby Mitchell

au e age

E C

T I O

30.3% 16.6% 53.1%Shawn Moody

0 1 0 E L

8.2% 18.4% 73.5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Kevin Scott

M B E R

9Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll ™

Very / Somewhat Unfavorable Very / Somewhat Favorable Not familiar

N O V




Favorability RatingsVery /

Somewhat

Very/

SomewhatNeither / Don’t

S

favorable unfavorable

Eliot Cutler 43.3% 21.2% 35.5%

E C

T I O Paul LePage 41.3% 47.5% 11.2%

0 1 0 E L

Shawn Moody 30.3% 16.6% 53.1%

M B E R

Kevin Scott 8.2% 18.4% 73.5%

10Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll ™ N O V


.



I am going to read you the names of some people running for public office inI am going to read you the names of some people running for public office inMaine. For each person, I would like you to tell me if you have a “very favorable”,Maine. For each person, I would like you to tell me if you have a “very favorable”,

“somewhat favorable”, ‘somewhat unfavorable” or “very unfavorable” opinion of “somewhat favorable”, ‘somewhat unfavorable” or “very unfavorable” opinion of them. If you aren’t familiar with that person, just say so.them. If you aren’t familiar with that person, just say so. [Scale options were rotated]

Percent of “likely voters” unfamiliar with Independent

candidates

S

73.5%

53.1%60%

70%80%

E C

T I O 35.5%

30%

40%

50%

0 1 0 E L

0%

10%

Kevin Scott Shawn Moody Eliot Cutler

M B E R

• Approximately one third (35.5%) of all “likely voters” are unfamiliar with orhave no opinion of Independent Eliot Cutler with 53.1% and 73.5% having



no opinion on Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott for respectively.



On November 2On November 2nd,nd, Mainers will vote to electMainers will vote to electa newa new governor.governor. If today were Election Day,If today were Election Day,

who would ou vote for?who would ou vote for?[Candidate options were read and rotated]

30%

35% 32.9%

28.0%

25.1%20.0%

15%

20%

25%

Vote14.0% S

7.8% 8.0% 6.4%

1.8%

7.6%

2.8% 0.4%

20.2%

0%

5%

10%4.6%

E C

T I O

0 1 0 E L

Vote 25.1% 20.0% 7.6% 2.8% -- --

Lean 7.8% 8.0% 6.4% 1.8% 0.4% --

Total 32.9% 28.0% 14.0% 4.6% 0.4% 20.2%

y Paul LePage leads the field by a margin of 4.9%. This is within the margin of error for this sample size.

y With two weeks to go until Election Day, there is still a high “undecided” level of 20.2% (CD 1 =

17.1% and CD 2 = 23.0% . M B E R

y The three independent candidates garner close to one-fifth of the vote combined.





Polling AveragePolling Average –– Four Recent PollsFour Recent Polls --

MAINE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONMAINE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONThree recent polls on the Maine Gubernatorial race, when averaged produced the followingresults. These are polls by Rasmussen, Pine Tree Politics / MECPO and the Portland PressHerald / CI. The Pan Atlantic SMS Grou oll results are also listed for com arative ur oses.

S

E C

T I O LePage Mitchell Cutler Moody Scott Undecided

0 1 0 E L Average 3 polls

(%) (numbers arerounded)

33% 30% 15% 5% 0.6% 16%*

M B E R

Pan AtlanticSMS Group

poll results

33% 28% 14% 5% 0.5% 20%

13Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll ™ N

O V


*The Rasmussen bullet (automated) poll was a forced choice poll with only 6% saying “undecided and only three candidatechoices provided. This may well have impacted the undecided levels reported in that poll (6%).



On November 2On November 2nd,nd, Mainers will vote to elect a newMainers will vote to elect a newgovernor.governor. If today were Election Day, who would youIf today were Election Day, who would you

vote for?vote for?[Candidate options were read and rotated]

Gubernatorial Race Choice by Political Affiliation – Top

54.8%62.9%

50%

60%70%

S

14.7%7.9%

16.9%9.7%

5.7%

17.1%19.7%

29.2%21.2%

24.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

E C

T I O

y The two main party candidates are pulling the highest share of independent voters.

Eliot Cutler (I) Paul LePage (R ) Libby Mitchell (D) Undecided

Democrat Republican Independent

0 1 0 E L

y Paul LePage has the support of 62.9% of Republicans and 29.2% of Independents.

y Libby Mitchell has the support of 54.8% of Democrats and 21.2% of Independents. M B E R

y o u er s suppor e y . o n epen en s, . o emocra s an . o epu cans.

y

A quarter of Independents (24.8%) are as yet undecided.14Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll ™ N

O V




On November 2On November 2nd,nd, Mainers will vote to elect a newMainers will vote to elect a new governor.governor. If today wereIf today wereElection Day, who would you vote for?Election Day, who would you vote for?

29.8% 30.2%

36.0%

35%

40%

S

17.1%

25.8%

23.0%

20%

25%

30%

E C

T I O

.

6.1%

11.8%

10%

15%

0 1 0 E L

0.4%

.

0.4%0%

Paul LePage (R ) Libby Mitchell (D) Eliot Cutler (I) Shawn Moody (I) Kevin Scott (I) Undecided

M B E R


1st Congressional District 2nd Congressional District

N

O V




Voting Pattern by Congressional District

Congressional

District 1

Congressional

District 2

S

Paul LePage 29.8% 36.0%

Libby Mitchell 30.3% 25.8%

E C

T I O

Eliot Cutler 16.3% 11.8%

Shawn Moody 6.1% 3.2%

0 1 0 E L evin cott . .

Undecided 17.1% 23.0%

M B E R

• Paul LePage has the highest support level in the second CongressionalDistrict (36.0% 2nd CD vs. 29.8% 1st CD) while Libby Mitchell does best inthe first Congressional District (30.3% 1st CD vs. 25.8% 2nd CD).


O V • The undecided vote is higher in the second Congressional District (23.0%).





Gubernatorial Race by Income Level –Top Three

32.0%33.5%

36.0%

30.2%

35%

40%

S

25.8% 25.8%24.1%

22.8%

20%

25%

E C

T I O

10.3%

. .12.9%

10%

15%

0 1 0 E L

0%

Eliot Cutler (I) Paul LePage (R ) Libby Mitchell (D) Undecided M B E R


n er , , o , ,

N

O V





Gubernatorial Race by Gender

40.5%35.0%

35%

40%

45%

S

15.0%

20.6%17.8%

13.0%

25.6%22.4%

15%

20%

25%

30%

E C

T I O

5.7%

0.4%3.5%

0.4%0%

5%

10%

0 1 0 E L

ot ut er au e age y tc e awn oo y ev n cott n ec e

Males Females

M B E R

•Both Paul LePage and Libby Mitchell have significant gender support level


O V gaps - LePage (40.5% men and 25.6% women) and Mitchell (35.0% women

and 20.6% men).Maine’s Best Pollster 2008




30.6%33.6%35%

40%

Groups (combined)

S

14.4%

.

20.7%

13.0%

.

20.0%

15%

20%

25%

E C

T I O

5.4%

0.0%

4.4%

0.5%0%

5%

10%

Elliot Cutler (I) Paul LePage (R ) Libby Mitchell (D) Shawn Moody (I) Kevin Scott Undecided 0 1 0 E L

Franco-American Other ethnicity

M B E R

•There is no appreciable difference in support levels for any of the top three


O V

.

voting groups.




Levels of Voter Certainty

Absolutely / Very

certain

Somewhat / Not

ver certain

S

Paul LePage 80.6% 19.4%

E C

T I O

Libby Mitchell 77.5% 22.5%

Eliot Cutler 55.7% 44.3%

0 1 0 E L Shawn Moody 56.5% 43.5%

Kevin Scott 50.0% 50.0%

M B E R

• Supporters of Paul LePage (80.6%) and Libby Mitchell (77.5%) cite highlevels of certainty to vote for their candidates.


O V • ut er supporters . are somew at ess e y to e certa n t ey w

vote for him.




On November 2On November 2ndnd, Mainers will also vote for, Mainers will also vote for MaineMaine

Congressional RepresentativesCongressional Representatives. If today were Election. If today were Election

Da , who would ou vote for?Da , who would ou vote for?[Candidate options were read and rotated]

60%

1st Congressional District Race

49.0%

32.6%40%

50%

S

42.9%

26.1%18.4%

10%

20%

30% Vote

Lean

E C

T I O

6.1% 6.5%0%

Chellie Pingree (D) Dean Scontras (R) Still undecided

0 1 0 E L

• Note -The sample size is smaller than that for the overall poll. The margin of error is

M B E R

. at t e con ence eve .

• In the first Congressional District race, Chellie Pingree leads Dean Scontras by 16.4 percentage

points with a sizable segment (18.4%) still undecided.


O V

• ngree s suppor e y . o emocra s, . o n epen en s an . o epu cans,

while Scontras has the support of 56.6% of Republicans, 28.1% of Independents and 15.2% of

Democrats.




On November 2On November 2ndnd, Mainers will also vote for, Mainers will also vote for Maine CongressionalMaine Congressional

RepresentativesRepresentatives. If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?. If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?

60%

1st Congressional District Race by Gender

44.7%

38.2%

53.3%

40%

50%

S

17.1%

27.0%

19.7%20%

30% Males

Females

E C

T I O

0%

10%

0 1 0 E L

• Note - The sample size is smaller than the overall poll. The margin of

error is ±6.2% at the 95% confidence level. M B E R


• ngree as a strong ea . percentage po nts among women voters . vs.27.0% Scontras). Scontras has a small lead among male vs. female voters.

N

O V




On November 2On November 2ndnd, Mainers will also vote for, Mainers will also vote for MaineMaine

Congressional RepresentativesCongressional Representatives. If today were Election. If today were Election

Da , who would ou vote for?Da , who would ou vote for?[Candidate options were read and rotated]

60%

2nd Congressional District Race48.8%

S

9.0%

5.1%30%

40%

Lean

29.3%

21.9%

E C

T I O

39.8%

24.1%10%

20%Vote

0 1 0 E L

Mike Michaud (D) Jason Levesque (R) Still Undecided

• Note - The sample size is smaller than the overall poll. The margin of error is ±6.2% at the

95% confidence level.

M B E R

• In the second Congressional District, Mike Michaud has a sizable lead of 19.5 percentage points over JasonLevesque. However, 21.9% of “likely voters” are still undecided.

• Michaud is supported by 78.8% of Democrats, 52.1% of Independents and 31.5% of Republicans, while


O V

. , . . .

• A total of 30.1% of Independents are still undecided.




On November 2On November 2ndnd, Mainers will also vote for, Mainers will also vote for Maine CongressionalMaine Congressional

RepresentativesRepresentatives. If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?. If today were Election Day, who would you vote for?

2nd Congressional District Race by Gender

48.8%

59.1%

50%

60%

70%

S

33.6%

25.0%30%

40%

Males

Females E C

T I O

18.2%15.9%

10%

20%

0 1 0 E L

Mike Michaud (D) Jason Levesque (R) Still undecided

• Michaud has the support of 59.1% of women and 48.8% of men while Levesque is M B E R


supporte y . o men an . o women.

N

O V




Question 1:Question 1:

Q. Do you want to allow a casino with table gamesQ. Do you want to allow a casino with table games

,,subject to local approval, with part of the profits goingsubject to local approval, with part of the profits goingto specific state, local and tribal programs?to specific state, local and tribal programs?

6.8%

49.1%44.7%50%

60%Question 1: Oxford County Casino

S

42.3% 39.1%

.

20%

30%

40%

Lean E C

T I O

6.2%

0%

10%

0 1 0 E L

y The margin in favor of the casino referendum is low at 4.4 percentage points. (49.1% vote / lean“yes” vs. 44.7% vote / lean “no”).

y Up to this point, there has been a very extensive pro casino media campaign, and very little M B E R


. ,should strong opposition paid media emerge in the two weeks prior to Election Day, these numberscould well change.

N

O V




Question 1Question 1 – – Comparative DataComparative Data – – Casino IssueCasino Issue

Q. Do you want to allow a casino with table games and slot machines at aQ. Do you want to allow a casino with table games and slot machines at a

, ,, ,going to specific state, local and tribal programs?going to specific state, local and tribal programs?

S rin 2010 *

S Vote / Lean

Undecided,9.8%

Undecided,

Fall 2010

E C

T I O

, .

Vote / LeanNO, 44.0%

Vote / Lean

6.2%

0 1 0 E L , .

Vote / LeanNO, 44.7%

*Note: The question wording in Spring 2010 read as follows: “Maine voters will vote on a proposed casino to be located in”

M B E R


x or oun y. o ay were ec on ay, ow wou you vo e on s ssue e re eren um ques on wor ng was noavailable at the time of polling). Due to this variation, comparisons of results should be made with extreme caution.

N

O V





Q. Do you favor a $9,750,000 bond issue to invest in land conservation andQ. Do you favor a $9,750,000 bond issue to invest in land conservation and

$9,250,000 in federal and other funds?$9,250,000 in federal and other funds?

7.6%

56.3%

50%

60%

S

4.4%

34.7%

30%

40%

Lean

Vote E C

T I O

.

30.3%

10%

20%

0 1 0 E L

.

0%

Vote For Vote Against Undecided

M B E R


At this point, there is an 18.6 percentage point margin in favor of this bond issue.

N

O V





Q. Do you favor a $9,750,000 bond issue to invest in land conservation andQ. Do you favor a $9,750,000 bond issue to invest in land conservation and

$9,250,000 in federal and other funds?$9,250,000 in federal and other funds?

S61.2%

75.7%

55.5%60%

70%

80%

E C

T I O

.

37.1%31.8%

37.5%

18.1%

.

35.0%

30%

40%

50%

0 1 0 E L 9.3% 10.9%

0%

10%

1st CD 2nd CD Democrat Republican Independent

y Democrats (75.7%) and Independents (55.5%) are more supportive of this bond issue than areRepublicans (37.1%). M

B E R

Vote For Vote Against Don't know


y Support is higher in the first Congressional District - 61.2% in favor vs. 51.6% in the secondCongressional District.

N

O V




OTHER ISSUESOTHER ISSUESWould you support or oppose banning text messaging by citizens whenWould you support or oppose banning text messaging by citizens when

Spring 2009

they are driving on Maine’s highways and roads?they are driving on Maine’s highways and roads? [Options were rotated]

Oppose,

14.0%

Don't

know, 0.8%

Don't know,5.0%

Fall 2010

C Y

Oppose,25.0%

Support,

85.3%

I C

P O L I

y E P U B L

Support,

70.0%


, . ,15.3 percentage points since the Spring 2009 Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll Survey.

M

A I




Key Poll Demographic Data

GENDER %

Females 51%

Males 49%

INCOME LEVELS %

Under $35,000 23%

$35,000 to $50,000 14%

$50,000 to $75,000 18%

$75,000 to $100,000 15%

,

Refused 21%

31Pan Atlantic SMS Group Report to Maine Association of RealtorsMaine’s Best Pollster 2008



PORTLAND, MAINE 04101PORTLAND, MAINE 04101

207.871.8622207.871.8622

WWW.PANATLANTICSMSGROUP.COMWWW.PANATLANTICSMSGROUP.COM


45th Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll Results

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