400G+5G - img3.gelonghui.com · [Table_MainInfo][Table_Title] / 400G+5G [Table_Summary] 1 2 BAT 17%...

[Table_MainInfo] [Table_Title]

/

400G+5G

[Table_Summary] 1

2

BAT

17% 40% ICP 3

400G 2019

2020 4 100G

400G (

( )

5G 1 4G

5G 6G/10G 25G

10G/100G 100G/200G/400G

4G RRU+BBU AAU+DU+CU

50G/100G ( 500 1000

) 4G

2.5 2 2008 3G

( )

1

500m PSM4

2 intel luxtera

100G 400G 2019

2019 -2021 7.27/10.26/12.45

PE 32X/23X/19X

400G

[Table_Finance] 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E

2,357 5,156 5,777 7,642 9,384

(+/-)% 1690.82% 118.76% 12.03% 32.28% 22.80%

162 623 727 1,026 1,245

(+/-)% 1506.36% 285.82% 16.69% 41.08% 21.37%

0.23 0.87 1.02 1.44 1.74

258.54 46.61 32.37 22.95 18.91

10.42 6.08 3.27 2.86 2.49

(%) 4.03% 13.05% 10.10% 12.47% 13.15%

(%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.27% 0.00% 0.00%

( ) 474 475 714 714 714

[Table_Invest]

[Table_Market] 2019/6/12

6 40

32.98

12 29.60 71.10

23,540

714

A 714

B /H 0/0

5

[Table_PicQuote]

-44%

-33%

-22%

-11%

0%

2018/6 2018/9 2018/12 2019/3

[Table_Trend] % 1M 3M 12M

0% -25% -33%

1% -23% -29%

[Table_Report]

300308.SZ 400G

5G --20190426

(300308.SZ)

—20180808

300308

--20180413

[Table_Author]

S0550517030001

021-20361109 [email protected]

S0550518010001

010-58034574 [email protected]

300308 /

2019-06-14

2 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

1. 5G ................................ 5

1.1. ...................................................................5

1.2. 5G ............................................................6

1.3. ...............................................................................7

1.4. + ............................................8

2. ...................................................... 9

2.1. ...................9

2.2. .................................................10

2.2.1. IAAS ..................................................................... 10

2.2.2. ................................................... 12

2.3. 400G .......................................14

2.4. 400G .......................................15

2.4.1. .................................................................... 15

2.4.2. + + + ............. 15

2.4.3. 400G 2019 ................................................... 17

3. 5G ............................... 19

3.1. 5G 4G ............................19

3.1.1. ........................................................................... 21

3.1.2. .......................................................... 21

3.1.3. ............................................................................... 22

3.1.4. 5G 4G 2.5 ............... 22

3.2. 5G ..............................................23

3.2.1. .................................................................................. 23

3.2.2. ................................................................. 23

4. .......................... 24

4.1. .............................24

4.1.1. .................................................................... 24

4.1.2. PSM4 ..................................... 25

4.2. 400G ...........................26

4.2.1. ...................................................... 26

4.2.2. 400G ........................................................ 27

5. .............................................................................. 27

6. .................................................................................. 27

6.1. .................................................................................................................27

6.2. .................................................................................................................28

6.3. .................................................................................................................29

3 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

1 .................................................................................................................... 5

2 ................................................................................................................ 5

3 ................................................................................. 5

4 .................................................................................................. 6

5 ......................................................................................................... 7

6 ............................................................................. 9

7 ......................................................................................................... 9

8 ............................................................................................. 10

9 ................................................................................................ 10

10 70% .......................................................................................... 10

11 CAGR19% ................................................................................ 10

12 Spine-Leaf .................................................................................... 10

13 40% ....................................................................................11

14 TOP5 IAAS ( ) ................................................................................11

15 ..............................................................................................................11

16 TOP5 Iaas .....................................................................................11

17 2018 43% ................................................................. 12

18 AWS 60+12 ....................................................................................... 13

19 Azure 42+12 ......................................................................................... 13

20 GCP 55+9 ............................................................................................ 13

21 IBM 18+X .................................................................................................... 13

22 56+X ..................................................................................................... 13

23 (53+X) ....................................................................................................................... 13

24 IDC CAGR22%&18% ............................................................................... 14

25 ........................................................................................ 14

26 CAGR25% .............................................................. 14

27 ( ) ................................................................................................ 15

28 400G ( ) .............................................................................................. 15

29 .................................................................................................. 15

30 ............................................................................................................. 16

31 400G ................................................................................................... 18

32 ........................................................................................ 19

33 ........................................................................................ 19

34 ( :10 ) ..................................................................... 20

35 ( :10 ).................................................................. 20

36 4G5G RAN ..................................................................................................... 21

37 CRAN ................................................................................................................ 22

38 DRAN .......................................................................................................................... 22

39 ...................................................................................................... 24

4 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

40 ......................................................................................................... 24

41 intel ....................................................................................................................... 25

42 CWDM4 .................................................................................................. 26

43 ...................................................................................................... 26

44 ................................................................................................................ 26

45 ....................................................................................................................... 29

1 ( ) ................................................................................................ 6

2 ............................................................................................................. 7

3 ............................................................................................................. 8

4 .................................................................................. 12

5 400G .......................................................................................... 17

6 400G ................................................................................................................ 17

7 5G ................................................................................................................ 21

8 CRAN DRAN ...................................................................... 23

5 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

1. 5G

1.1. 2008

10G SFP+ 10G XFP 25G SFP28

40G QSFP+ 100G CFP4/QSFP28 400G OSFP/QSFP-DD

ICT

100G 30% 2017

1

97%

400G

2018 10G/40G 24.22% 25G/100G/400G

72.71%

2014 /2018

7.46 /51.39 62% 2014 /2018 0.71

/6.22 72% 400G

2 3

24.22%

72.71%

3.07%

10G/40G 25G/100G/400G

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2014 2015 2016 2018

6 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

2014 24% 30%

40G/100G

2018

400G

2014 10% 2017 Q4 3%

1.1

4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2018

70.94%

1 ( )

2015 2016 2017 2018

Google 42.74% Google 22.74% 1 47.56% 1 37.37%

HYVE Solutions 12.23% 14.57% 2 7.69% 2 12.20%

9.46% HYVE Solutions 11.13% 3 6.55% 3 10.43%

5.81% Amazon 9.36% 4 6.15% 4 8.24%

3.06% 6.40% 5 5.15% 5 2.70%

73.31% 64.20% 73.10% 70.94%

1.2. 5G

3G 2009 6G 2km 10G 1.4km 2010

6G LTE SFP+ 3G 4G

7 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

10G 1.4km 10G 10km 10G 40km 5G

5G

5G

NEC 5G

5G

5

1.3.

SDL JDSU 470

(Luxnet) 2000 Pine Photonics Communications

2003 Opnext

Agere System ( ), Pine Photonics Communications,

Opnext 2008

2

Santa Clara MBA SDL JDSU 470

(Luxnet) 2000 Pine Photonics

Communications 2003 Opnext Opnext

Agere

System ( ), Pine Photonics Communications, Opnext

2008

UIUC Optical

Instrumentation Corp CEO Pine Photonics Communications

OpLink

Texas A&M Santa Clara MBA Uniwave

(2004~2007) Pine Photonics Communications (2000-2003)

GTE

8 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

UC Santa Cruz

9 Opnext 2003

Pine Photonics Communications

(Georgia Institute of Technology)

Baird Intel

10G

Opnext

1.4. + 2018 4 26

2019 1 23 3 11

3437.80 45.26 / 15.23 2019 4

22 38,083.48

400G

45 400G 160 100G 140

5G

5G

3

1 400G 35,082.00 45 400G

2 83,539.70 160 100G

140 5G

3 16,973.30

4 20,000.00

2019 6 7 7500

1.5 48.92 /

306.62 2019 6 6 0.43%

6,800

1

13,600 1

1:1

6,800

600

9 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

2.

2.1.

2017 6 126

IT 54%

AWS 50

0 Gartner 2017

1535 2018 1864 21.4

2021 3020 17.5%

6 7

Gartner Cisco

+

IDC Cisco 2016 338

2021 628 86% Garner

2016 83% 2021 94% 2016-2021 19%

70%

Spine/Leaf

Spine/Leaf Spine Leaf

5 cicso

2018 38% 2021 53% 5%

10 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

8 9

Cisco Cisco

10 70% 11 CAGR19%

Cisco Cisco

12 Spine-Leaf

Wind

2.2. 2.2.1. IAAS

2006 IBM

Garner 2017 IAAS 221.60

31.42% 71% 15

Synergy Research 2018 ( Iaas/Paas/Hosted

Private Cloud) 700 48% 2017

11 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

2018 60%

Iaas 2017

122 25% 54.1%

IBM Rackspace Virtustream

2017

3.7%

4%

10%

13 40% 14 TOP5 IAAS ( )

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

50

100

150

200

250

2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

( )

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Amazon Microsoft Alibaba Google IBM

2017 2016 2017

Synergy Research Garner

15 16 TOP5 Iaas

Synergy Research Garner

12 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

2.2.2.

Synergy Research 2018 1200

43%

Facebook 70%

IBM NTT SAP

2018

17 2018 43%

Synergy Research

AWS Azure GCP

IBM

4

AWS 20 60 4 12

Azure 42 ( 140 / ) 12

GCP 18 55 100

35 /

3 9

IBM 16 18 60

19 /

19 56

25 53

13 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

18 AWS 60+12 19 Azure 42+12

AMZN

20 GCP 55+9 21 IBM 18+X

IBM

22 56+X 23 (53+X)

2 CEO 2019 130

4

2018

2019

14 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

2.3. 400G

400G

2016 2021

27.4% ERP

18.6% 2016-2021

(Compute)17% (Collaboration)14%

IoT 21% ERP 19% 24% 26% 16%

18%

24 IDC CAGR22%&18% 25

cisco cisco

2016 2021 25%

100G 2016 2017

2017/2018

400G 2019

2020

26 CAGR25%

cisco

15 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

2.4. 400G 2.4.1.

Ovum 2016~2020

10% 2020 122 40% 2015

26 2020 50 15%

Lightcounting 2018-2020 400G

0.56 2.8 7.2 400G

27 ( ) 28 400G ( )

OVUM Lightcounting

OVUM 2018 4 2017

55% 2018 Finisar II-VI

Lumentum Oclaro 6%

40G QSFP+ 37% 100G

QSFP28 30%

29

Ovum (April 2018)

2.4.2. + + +

AAOI Finisar

400G

16 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

-40 ~+85 BOX

COB

Spine-Leaf

2-3

8 5

40G QSFP+

37% 100G QSFP28 30% 2018

422 5G

10G/25G/40G/100G/200G/400G 100G 400G

OSFP QSFP-DD 2019

30

17 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

2.4.3. 400G 2019

400G

MM SM NRZ PAM4 PAM4

400G SR DR FR LR

400G CDFP/CFP8 OSFP QSFP-DD COBO

400G OSFP QSFP-DD 100G

400G

10G/25G/40G/100G 10G/40G/100G

SFP /QSFP+/QSFP28 400G 4

CFP8 OSFP QSFP-DD COBO

400G

16 25Gbps NRZ 400G-SR16 CDFP CFP8

100G 25G NRZ 16

400G

8 53GbpsPAM4 400G-SR8,FR8,LR8 4

106GbpsPAM4 400G-DR4,FR4,LR4 400G 8

53GbpsPAM4 OSFP QSFP-DD OSFP QSFP-DD

8 QSFP-DD 100G

QSFP28 OSFP

COBO

PCB

OSFP QSFP-DD

5 400G

400G-SR16 16*26.5Gbps NRZ 100m MM 802.3bs 16*26.5Gbps NRZ CDFP/CFP8

400G-FR8 8λ *53Gbps PAM4 2km SM 802.3bs 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD/OSFP

400G-LR8 8λ *53Gbps PAM4 10km SM 802.3bs 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD/OSFP

400G-SR8 8λ *53Gbps PAM4 100m SM 802.cm 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD/OSFP

400G-SR4.2 4*2λ *53Gbps PAM4 100m MM 802.3cm 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD/OSFP

400G-DR4 4λ *106Gbps PAM4 500m SM 802.3bs 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD/OSFP

400G-FR4 4λ *106Gbps PAM4 2km SM 100G/λ 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD/OSFP

400G-LR4 4λ *106Gbps PAM4 10km SM TBD 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD/OSFP

400G-ZR4 DWDM+59.8Gbd

DP-16QAM >80km DWDM OIF 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD

Digital-Technology

6 400G

CFP8 OSFP QSFP-DD COBO

18 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

102*40*9.5 mm^3

100.4*22.58*13 mm^3

( CFP8 ,

QSFP-DD )

CFP4

8 ,

8 25G DML

PAM4

56G

QSFP

4

8

PCB

,

100G

25G NRZ

QSFP+/QSFP28

16 25G

PLC

,

,

; QSFP-DD

PCB;

400G OSFP QSFP-DD 2016 11

48 400G OSFP MSA

2017 3 OFC 400G OSFP LR8

2017 9

ECOC 8 400G OSFP QSFP-DD

400G AOC/OSFPSR/2XFR4/LR8 400G QSFP-DD AOC/SR8/DR4/LR4 2018

3 OFC QSFP-DD SR8/FR4 400G OSFP SR8/2x FR4/ LR8

400G

400G 2019

400G

400G

31 400G

19 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

100G/400G

400G

3. 5G

3.1. 5G 4G

5G

ITU 5G eMBB mMTC URLLC

eMBB

100Mbps 1Gbps

Gbps Tbps 500km

URLLC

100%

mMTC /km2

32 33

ITU ITU

20 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

5G

5G

GSA 5 41 5G

5G Ovum 2018

34 ( :10 )

Ovum

2019 6 6

5G 5G 2019

3026 5.5% 5G 327

35 ( :10 )

9.7%

-15.1%

7.2%

17.7%12.9% 11.4%

16.4%

-18.8%

-13.1%

-7.4%

5.5%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E

Ovum

5G 1

2 3

21 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

3.1.1.

5G CPRI eCPRI

25G 5G 5G

(millimeter wave) (massive MIMO),

(100 MHz, 200 MHz) (small cell)

5G eCPRI CPRI

6G/10G 25G

1G 10G 40G/100G

100G/200G/400G

7 5G

CPRI eCPRI

1/3.2 1/10

80G/100G 25G

QSFP 28 SFP 28

WDM

AAU

3.1.2.

4G RRU+BBU AAU+ DU+CU

5G BBU DU+CU 4G 5G

RAN 4G/LTE BBU Baseband Unit RRU

CU DU AAU BBU CU DU BBU

RRU AAU AAU DU

CU DU

CU DU

5G RAN

50G/100G

36 4G5G RAN

22 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

3.1.3.

5G

4G 2017 4G 206

91 120 417 5G

3500MHz

4G 5G 4G 1.5

2600MHz 4900MHz 5G

4G 5G 500

5G 5G

5G

5G

5G

3.1.4. 5G 4G 2.5

CRAN DRAN

5G CRAN

3 5 5G

DRAN 8 1

5G 8:4:1

37 CRAN 38 DRAN

IMT-2020 IMT-2020

5G 4G 2.5

25G CRAN/DRAN 50G/25G

50G 200G/400G 500

4300-5200 3000

42-65 30 4G

2.5 1000

23 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

8 CRAN DRAN

CRAN DRAN

3

5 5G 1

8

1 5G 1

= *(N-1)+

2.03*(15-1)+4.65=33.07Gbs

= *(N-1)+

2.03*(8-1)+4.65=18.86Gbs

4

6

4

6

= *

* /2*

33.07*6*4/2*1/2=198.42Gbps

= *

* /2*

18.86*6*4/2*1/2=113.16Gbps

4

8

4

8

= *

* /2*

198.42*8*4/2*1/4=793.68Gbs

= *

* /2*

113.16*8*4/2*1/4=452.64Gbs

3.2. 5G 3.2.1.

( +

)

Finisar

Oclaro Lumentum Acacia

3.2.2.

5G 3G

2009 6G 2km 10G 1.4km 2010 6G LTE

SFP+ 3G 4G 10G 1.4km

10G 10km 10G 40km

90%

2015 5G

5G 10G

25G/50G/100G 1G 10G 50G/100G/200G

2016 5G

NEC 2018 Q4

2019 5G 25G LR 10KM

5G

24 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

39

5G 5G / /

25G /50G /100 100G/400G

5G

5G

4.

4.1. 4.1.1.

III-V 1

2

3

40

25 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

SiGe/Si SOI CMOS

/

1

CMOS

2

3

41 intel

intel

1 III-V

III-V

2

8~12

4.1.2. PSM4

100G CWDM4 PSM4

CWDM4 LR4 CWDM4 10km

CWDM4

500m PSM4 Intel Luxtera

CWDM4 2KM

Yole D veloppement

2015 4000 2025

48%

95%

26 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

42 CWDM4 43

Ovum Yole D veloppement

4.2. 400G

4.2.1.

2010

Foundry IT

1 2014 2015

6.1 AIM Photonics Leti

2 Intel IBM IT Intel IBM

2003 3

Lightwire Luxtera

Kotura Caliopa 4 Acacia SiFotonics

Intel 2016 100Gbit/s QSFP28

400Gbit/s Mellanox 2017 200Gbit/s QSFP Luxtera

2015 100Gbit/s QSFP28 PSM4 2017

100Gbit/s CWDM2 Acacia

100Gbit/s 200Gbit/s 400Gbit/s

Intel Luxtera

44

27 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

4.2.2. 400G

Lightcounting 2019 400G 2.8

2018 OFC Finisar

Mellanox 10 400G

400G

100G Intel Luxtera

500m 100G QSFP28 PSM4/CWDM4 400G

100G 2km CWDM4 400G

5.

2019 5 9 5 10 2000

10% 25% 5 13 USTR

6 17 3000 25%

2500

2 3

Avago Oclaro

facebook

2.2

6.

6.1.

facebook 100G 400G

400G 2019 2020

100G 2019

5G 2020 5G 25G

100G

400G 100G

400G 25G

28 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

2019

100G 400G 10G/40G

100G

400G

30%

2019/2020/2021 57.77 /76.42 /93.84

26.29%/26.84%/26.41%

1

2018 2019E 2020E 2021E

25G/100G/400G

3748.97 4616.80 6681.50 8624.00

YOY 23.15% 44.72% 29.07%

28.16% 26.91% 27.37% 26.81%

10G/40G

1248.76 1000.00 800.00 600.00

YOY -19.92% -20.00% -25.00%

24.36% 23.00% 22.00% 20.00%

158.59 160 160 160

YOY 0.89% 0.00% 0.00%

29.00% 29.00% 29.00% 29.00%

5156.32 5776.80 7641.50 9384.00

YOY 12.03% 32.28% 22.80%

27.27% 26.29% 26.84% 26.41%

6.2.

A

100G

100G

wind 2019 6 12 2019

30-44 2020 21-33

2019 /2020 PE 32/23

40

29 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

45

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E

Wind

6.3. 1 400G

400G

2

3

30 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

[Table_Forcast] 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E

1,041 3,095 3,616 4,584 623 727 1,026 1,245

0 0 0 0 66 10 36 35

880 1,110 1,468 1,803 203 214 227 232

2,119 2,321 3,047 3,764 -14 0 0 0

117 128 150 171 79 24 16 16

4,158 6,654 8,281 10,322 -7 -5 -5 -5

0 0 0 0 -323 155 -509 -484

103 103 103 103 32 0 0 0

1,497 1,640 1,758 1,758 660 1,125 791 1,040

384 255 140 38 -673 -355 -255 -55

1,717 1,717 1,717 1,717 137 1,283 -16 -16

3,922 4,067 4,099 3,927 949 379 1,416 1,798

8,080 10,721 12,380 14,250

390 0 0 0 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E

942 1,485 1,950 2,409

17 19 25 31 0.87 1.02 1.44 1.74

1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 6.69 10.09 11.52 13.27

2,868 3,085 3,718 4,342 0.92 1.58 1.11 1.46

270 270 270 270

167 167 167 167 118.76% 12.03% 32.28% 22.80%

436 436 436 436 285.82% 16.69% 41.08% 21.37%

3,304 3,521 4,154 4,778

4,776 7,200 8,226 9,471 27.27% 26.29% 26.84% 26.41%

0 0 0 0 12.08% 12.59% 13.42% 13.27%

8,080 10,721 12,380 14,250

70.12 70.12 70.12 70.12

2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 198.95 198.95 198.95 198.95

5,156 5,777 7,642 9,384

3,750 4,258 5,591 6,906 40.89% 32.84% 33.55% 33.53%

10 13 16 20 1.45 2.16 2.23 2.38

66 10 36 35 0.69 1.38 1.39 1.49

60 78 99 113

253 284 352 422 1.17% 1.35% 1.30% 1.20%

79 -17 -51 -66

4.91% 4.91% 4.60% 4.50%

14 0 0 0 1.54% -0.30% -0.67% -0.70%

7 5 5 5

682 811 1,144 1,389 0.00% 8.62% 0.00% 0.00%

13 0 0 0 0.00% 0.27% 0.00% 0.00%

695 811 1,144 1,389

72 84 118 144 P/E 46.61 32.37 22.95 18.91

623 727 1,026 1,245 P/B 6.08 3.27 2.86 2.49

623 727 1,026 1,245 P/S 3.04 4.07 3.08 2.51

0 0 0 0 13.05% 10.10% 12.47% 13.15%

31 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

2015

2015

2016

“ ”

R3 A B

AA ABS

“ ”

6 15%

6 5% 15%

6 -5% 5%

6 5% 15%

6 15%

6

6

6

32 / 32

[Table_PageTop]

http://www.nesc.cn 400-600-0686

6666 130119

28 D 100033

729 200127

1 2 24D 518000

021-20361121 13564972909 [email protected]

021-20361229 17717370432 [email protected]

021-20361258 18221628116 [email protected]

021-20361267 13956071185 [email protected]

021-20361258 13120758587 [email protected]

021-20361121 18516562656 [email protected]

021-20361112 18801903156 [email protected]

010-58034553 18515018255 [email protected]

010-58034557 18501954588 [email protected]

010-58034555 13701194494 [email protected]

010-58034563 18501944669 [email protected]

010-58034565 18601018177 [email protected]

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400G+5G - img3.gelonghui.com · [Table_MainInfo][Table_Title] / 400G+5G [Table_Summary] 1 2 BAT 17%...

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