40 Year Commemorative Edition - NCREIF · 40 Years NPI 1978-2018 200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135...

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NCREIF National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries 40 Year Commemorative Edition Celebrating 40 Years NPI 1978-2018 NCREIF Property Index Performance Report Fourth Quarter 2018 Blake Eagle—Founded NCREIF in 1978 at the Frank Russell Company in Tacoma, Washington NCREIF Headquarters Today Chicago, Illinois

Transcript of 40 Year Commemorative Edition - NCREIF · 40 Years NPI 1978-2018 200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135...

Page 1: 40 Year Commemorative Edition - NCREIF · 40 Years NPI 1978-2018 200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135 CHICAGO, IL 60601 312-819-5890 NCREIF National Council of Real Es tate Investment Fiduciaries

Celebrating 40 Years

NPI 1978-2018 

200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135 CHICAGO, IL 60601 

312-819-5890 www.NCREIF.org

NCREIF N a t i o n a l C o u n c i l o f R e a l E s t a t e I n v e s t m e n t F i d u c i a r i e s

40 Year Commemorative Edition Celebrating

40 Years NPI

1978-2018

NCREIF Property Index Performance Report

Fourth Quarter 2018

Blake Eagle—Founded NCREIF in 1978 at the Frank Russell Company in Tacoma, Washington

NCREIF Headquarters Today Chicago, Illinois

NCREIF N a t i o n a l C o u n c i l o f R e a l E s t a t e I n v e s t m e n t F i d u c i a r i e s

Page 2: 40 Year Commemorative Edition - NCREIF · 40 Years NPI 1978-2018 200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135 CHICAGO, IL 60601 312-819-5890 NCREIF National Council of Real Es tate Investment Fiduciaries

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Property IndexReal Estate Performance Report

F O U R T H Q U A R T E R , 2 0 1 8

N E W S A N D A N N O U N C E M E N T S . . .

n NCREIF WINTER CONFERENCE 2019 – NCREIF will host its Annual Winter Conference 2019 March 18-20 in Phoenix, AZ at the Arizona Biltmore. Program details and registration information is available on the NCREIF website at www.NCREIF.org under the Conference tab.

n BE SURE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE NCREIF FUND INDEX – DAILY PRICED (NFI-DP)! The NFI-DP is an open-end fund-level index comprising a small universe of funds that are priced daily, offer investors some degree of daily liquidity and invest predominantly in private real estate. Most, but not all, of the underlying funds also maintain a liquidity sleeve of predominately publicly listed REITs and cash to help facilitate the funds’ trading needs. The NFI-DP is an equal-weighted, net of advisory fees, time weighted return Index of daily total returns. It is published monthly with an inception date of October 2009.

n The NCREIF Indices reports and spreadsheets can be accessed, and the data can be queried, via our web site at www.NCREIF.org in the Member Log In area. Please contact the NCREIF office if you do not have a username and password.

n PLEASE NOTE: The NCREIF Property Index is a completely unleveraged Index. Leveraged properties are included in the Index, but are reported on an unleveraged basis.

n NOTE: The opinions expressed in the articles of this publication are solely those of the authors, and not necessarily those of NCREIF, its staff, its leadership, or its members.

N C R E I F P R O P E R T Y I N D E X

Quarterly Highlight 2

Total Returns 4

Property Subtype Definitions 28

Apartment 6

Industrial 8

Office 10

Retail 12

NFI-ODCE 14

MSA’s 16

S T A T I S T I C A L A P P E N D I X

Index Formulas 18

Regions & Divisions 19

Distribution of Properties 20

Annualized Returns 21

Rolling One-Year Returns 22

Mountain Chart 24

Property Sales 25

N C R E I F T I M B E R L A N D I N D E X 26

N C R E I F F A R M L A N D I N D E X 27

D A T A C O N T R I B U T O R S 5

I N T H I S I S S U E :

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indices and performance tools, but the heart of NCREIF will forever revolve around the NPI and the data within. Oh, and no need to worry, Blake, Wylie and Dad, we continue to protect and honor the data and the mission of the organization!

1978 NCREIF developed the NCREIF Property Index (NPI) that began with data from 4th Quarter 1977 and consisted of all-equity properties. The NPI included the following property types – Industrial, Office, and Retail

1984 The NPI expanded to include Apartments in 3rd Quarter 1984.

1986 Introduced the NCREIF Timberland Index in 4th Quarter 1986. As of 3q2012 the index consisted of 399 properties with a market value of over $2.3B.

1990 Introduced the NCREIF Farmland Index in 4th Quarter 1990. As of 3q2012 the index consisted of 541 properties with a market value of over $3.3B.

1995 Leveraged properties were added to the NPI on a de-leveraged basis with historical data being added back to 1982.

1997 Began breaking out the hotel returns in the NPI and publishing in all reports in 1st Quarter 1997.

2000 The database was expanded to include operating data fields as well as non-NPI qualifying properties which include taxable, land, development, and alternative property types such as self-storage, seniors housing, among others.

2005 Released the NCREIF Fund Index-Open End Diversified Core Equity (NFI-ODCE) with data going back to 1st Quarter 1978.

2008 Released the NCREIF-Townsend Fund Indices Report that includes data on Closed End, Value Added and Opportunity Funds.

2012 Released the NCREIF Fund Index – Open End Equity (NFI-OE) and the NCREIF Timberland Fund and Separate Account Index

2014 Discontinued the NCREIF Townsend Fund Index and released the NCREIF Fund Index – Closed End Value Add (NFI-CEVA)

2015 Released the NCREIF Fund Index – Daily Priced (NFI-DP) and the NCREIF, INREV, ANREV Global Real Estate Fund Index (GREFI)

Those of us that are lucky enough to have known NCREIF’s “Founding Father,” Blake Eagle, since the early days of NCREIF can share with you many fascinating and entertaining stories that Blake has told over the years about what it took to convince 13 investment managers to share their data with NCREIF for the purpose of creating a real estate equivalent of the S&P 500. The early meetings took place while Blake was a consultant for the Frank Russell Company in Tacoma, Washington.

Blake loves to recite some of the early managers’ initial responses to contributing data to the construction of a property level performance index, that went along the following lines. Blake, we think the idea of the index is a good one-and we support your overall effort-however our firm cannot contribute data because we know that our data is of a quality and character that is far superior to that of our competitors-and it would not be fair to our investors and stockholders to participate. We look forward to the index and will be one of the index’s early users.

Blake’s response, “At this time I cannot guarantee you that your firm will ever be a candidate to manage Russell client real estate capital-too early in the game-but what I can assure you is that if you don’t agree to be part of the Index team, they won’t even consider returning your telephone call! Thank you for your time.” Blake would pick up his brief case and head for the door.

The response was super quick; less than a nano second. “Hold it Blake-please don’t leave-let’s sit down and rethink this out. I’m sure we can somehow make this all work.” Blake’s clout, the Russell client base, at the time some 40 of the biggest corporate defined benefit plans in the country.

After meeting with some fifteen to twenty real estate investment managers, thirteen agreed to contribute data and work together to set standards for both data submission and index construction. In effect, the thirteen founding members agreed in principle to take off their “competitive” hats and put on their “good for the industry hats. Thus the birth of what started out as the Frank Russell Property Index, later to become the NCREIF Property Index (NPI).

Shortly after the Index was developed, Blake and others created a not-for-profit organization with the mission of providing a non-biased, independent collector and steward of the members’ data. The National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) was officially formed in 1982 in Tacoma, and was housed within the Frank Russell building. The Frank Russell Company continued to produce the NPI on behalf of NCREIF until 1994, which is when my father, Richard Gaskins, and I moved NCREIF from Tacoma to our current headquarters in Chicago. I was quite a bit younger back then and to this day I can hear the voice of our then-Board President, Wylie Greig of RREEF, saying to me “Stacy, all you need to remember is to always protect the confidentiality of the data, and to ensure it is always used responsibly and with the respect it deserves.” I have recited those words a thousand times over the past 30 years to the staff and leadership of NCREIF, to the point I have annoyed them! I do believe though that as much as they are tired of hearing it, the staff truly understands the importance of knowing the history of the organization and the importance of our mission to the industry. We all strive to continue to make Blake proud!

So, here we are 40 years after the birth of the Index and Blake is still very active in the organization, and he stays on top of our continued growth. NCREIF is now known for several additional

CELEBRATING 40 YEARS OF THE NCREIF PROPERTY INDEX (NPI) B y S t a c y A . G a s k i n s – C h i e f O p e r a t i n g O ff i c e r, N C R E I F

H I S T O R I C A L N C R E I F D A T A T I M E L I N E

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Returns for the NCREIF Property Index (NPI) returns continued

the downward trend during the fourth quarter of 2018 but still

managed to have positive price appreciation (net of capex). The

current quarter’s total return was 1.37% down from 1.67% last

quarter. The total return consisted of an income return of 1.11%

and a capital return was 0.26%. The average quarterly return over

the past five years was 2.28% or 9.85% annualized. These are

unleveraged returns, but leverage was only slightly favorable for the

quarter due to lower returns and rising costs of debt.

NPI Quarterly Unleveraged Returns

Industrial Once Again Saving the Quarter While Retail Returns

Turn Negative

Industrial properties, which are primarily warehouse, continue

to be the stellar performer with a return of 3.40% for the quarter

which was up from the prior quarter return of 3.36%. Office

followed with a return of 1.65% followed by apartment at 1.35%,

hotel at 1.21% and the continuing laggard retail had a negative

0.43% return for the quarter. This is the first quarter that we have

seen a negative return since the fourth quarter of 2009.

NPI Total Returns by Property Type

Return Drivers

Occupancy for NCREIF-tracked properties was at 94.0% which

is only down slightly from the occupancy last quarter of 94.17%

that was the highest since the 4th quarter of 2000. Industrial

properties had the highest occupancy rate.

DOWN BUT NOT OUT – RETURNS DOWN FOR QUARTER BUT PRICES STILL INCREASEDB y J e ff r e y D. F i s h e r, P h . D. , N C R E I F S e n i o r C o n s u l t a n t

Occupancy by Property Type

Rent grew at 1.5% for the quarter which was up from about 0.7%

last quarter. Rent growth for retail was surprisingly high at over

3.5% for the quarter, followed by industrial at just over 2%. Office

and apartments were both around 0.5%.

Rent Growth by Property Type

Cap rates

Cap rates edged up very slightly to 4.81% from 4.79% last

quarter despite the rising interest rate environment.

Cap Rate History

Conclusion

The NPI managed price appreciation during the quarter mainly

because industrial properties more than offset the declines in retail

properties. This divergence appears likely to continue as we enter

2009 and may ultimately determine the direction of the entire

NPI. It is unlikely that cap rate compression can add to any price

appreciation so continued positive returns will depend on the

income return and NOI growth.

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N P I – T O T A L R E T U R N S

N P I – T O T A L R E T U R N S S U M M A R Y PropertyCount MarketValue Total Income Appreciation

4thQ2018 7,883 611,655,051,001 1.37 1.11 0.263rdQ2018 7,786 591,905,495,731 1.67 1.11 0.562ndQ2018 7,672 580,758,500,978 1.81 1.14 0.671stQ2018 7,553 567,468,168,986 1.70 1.12 0.581Year 6.72 4.56 2.083Year 7.21 4.67 2.465Year 9.33 4.88 4.3010Year 7.49 5.48 1.9215Year 8.87 5.73 3.0120Year 8.98 6.39 2.47Inception 9.17 7.19 1.87

N P I – T O T A L R E T U R N S B Y P R O P E R T Y - T Y P E S U M M A R Y Apartment Hotel Industrial Office Retail

4thQ2018 1.35 1.21 3.40 1.65 -0.433rdQ2018 1.55 3.22 3.36 1.69 0.562ndQ2018 1.54 1.95 3.58 1.54 1.321stQ2018 1.50 1.00 3.25 1.80 0.721Year 6.07 7.57 14.30 6.85 2.183Year 6.52 5.73 13.22 6.36 5.595Year 8.34 8.24 13.59 8.58 8.9510Year 7.52 5.32 9.24 6.44 8.2415Year 8.38 7.39 9.93 8.34 9.7120Year 8.87 7.02 9.93 8.28 10.01Inception 8.78 8.19 9.87 8.41 9.54

N P I – T O T A L R E T U R N S B Y R E G I O N S U M M A R Y East Midwest South West

4thQ2018 1.11 0.42 1.11 1.933rdQ2018 1.25 0.93 1.70 2.182ndQ2018 1.30 1.65 1.91 2.221stQ2018 1.20 1.27 1.83 2.161Year 4.95 4.34 6.71 8.763Year 5.48 5.63 7.00 9.225Year 7.38 8.05 9.58 11.2610Year 6.37 6.73 7.88 8.5015Year 8.25 7.48 8.87 9.8920Year 8.83 7.47 8.54 9.97Inception 9.94 8.01 8.31 9.79

M A R K E T I N D E X C O M P A R I S O N S 4thQ2018 Changefrom Returns% 3rdQ2018 1yr. 3yr. 5yr. 10yr. 15yr. 20yr. Inception

NPI 1.37 -0.30 6.72 7.21 9.33 7.49 8.87 8.98 9.17S&P500Index -13.52 -21.23 -4.38 9.26 8.49 13.12 7.77 5.62 11.37T-Bills(90day) 0.54 0.06 1.81 1.23 0.86 0.48 1.34 1.88 4.66NAREITEquityREITIndex -6.06 -6.57 -4.39 4.12 8.24 12.49 8.49 9.92 12.07ConsumerPriceIndex -0.48 -0.66 1.91 2.03 1.51 1.79 2.08 2.15 3.47

*BarclaysCapitalU.S.GovernmentBondIndex(formallyknownasLehmanBrothersU.S.GovernmentBondIndex)**BarclaysCapitalU.S.Government/CreditBondIndex(formallyknownasLehmanBrothersU.S.Government/CreditBondIndex)FormoreinformationreferencethedocumenttitledTHEBENCHMARKINFIXEDINCOME:BARCLAYSCAPITALINDICESREBRANDINGTHEUNIFIEDBARCLAYSCAPITALINDICESlocatedathttps://ecommerce.barcap.com/indices/index.dxml

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N P I I N D E X D A T A C O N T R I B U T O R S AEWCapitalManagement,L.P.Alacatel-LucentInvestmentManagementCorporationAlaskaElectricalPensionFundAlaskaPermanentFundCorp.AlaskaRetirementManagementBoardAmCapInc.AmericanRealtyAdvisorsAmstarAdvisers,LLCAPGU.S.Investments,Inc.ASBCapitalManagementAscentrisBaringsRealEstateAdvisersBeaconCapitalPartnersBentallKennedy(U.S.)LPBerkshireGroupLLCBlackCreekGroupBlackRockRealtyBostonUniversityEndowmentCalPERSCalSTRSCapriCapitalAdvisorsLLCCBREGlobalInvestorsCignaRealtyInvestorsClarionPartnersCommonWealthPartners,LLCConsolidatedEdisonDakotaPacificRealEstateCSCapitalManagement,Inc.DeseretMutualBenefitAdministratorsDWSEdensEverwestRealEstateCompanyFairfieldResidentialCompanyLLCFirstWashingtonRealty,Inc.FloridaStateBoardofAdministrationTheGeneralInvestmentandDevelopmentCompaniesGIPartnersGoldman,Sachs&Co.GrosvenorInvestmentManagementUSInc.GuggenheimRealEstateLLCTheHampshireCompaniesHartRealtyAdvisers,Inc.HeitmanCapitalManagementHendersonGlobalInvestorsHinesIDSRealEstateGroupIntercontinentalRealEstateCorporationInvescoRealEstateIowaPublicEmployees’RetirementSystemTheJohnBuckCompanyJ.P.MorganAssetManagementJamestownLPKansasPublicEmployeesRetirementSystemKaustInvestmentManagementKensingtonRealtyAdvisorsL&BRealtyAdvisors,LLPLACERALaSalleInvestmentManagement,Inc.LincolnAdvisoryGroupTheLionstoneGroupLongWharfRealEstatePartnersLoweEnterpriseInvestmentManagementLPCRealtyAdvisorsMassachusettsPRIMMetLifeMIGRealtyAdvisors

MillerCapitalAdvisory,Inc.MissouriStateEmployees’RetirementSystemMorganStanleyNationalElectricalBenefitFundNationalRealEstateAdvisorsNewYorkLifeInvestmentManagementNewYorkPresbyterianHospitalNewYorkState&LocalRetirementFundNewYorkStateTeachers’RetirementSystemNuveenRealEstateOPTrustOxfordPropertiesGroupPacificCoastCapitalPartnersPacificUrbanResidentialParkwayProperties,Inc.PGGMInvestmentsPNCRealtyInvestorsPrincipalGlobalInvestorsProLogisPrivateCapital,LLCPromarkPrudentialRealEstateInvestorsPublicEmployeesRetirementAssociationofColoradoPublicEmployeesRetirementSystemofOhioQwestAssetManagementRegencyCentersAdvisors,LLCRockefellerFoundationSarofimRealtyAdvisorsSchoolEmployeesRetirementSystemofOhioSentinelRealEstateCorporationStateofMichiganRetirementSystemStateofWisconsinInvestmentBoardStateTeachersRetirementSystemofOhioStockbridgeTAAssociatesRealtyTeacherRetirementSystemofTexasTeachers’RetirementSystemofIllinoisTIAAUBSRealtyInvestorsLLCUMWAHealthandRetirementFundsUniversityofCalifornia-OfficeoftheTreasurerVanbartonGroupLLCVanderbiltUniversityVirginiaRetirementSystemWashingtonCapitalManagement,Inc.WatertonAssociatesWhiteStarAdvisors,LLC

F A R M L A N D I N D E X D A T A C O N T R I B U T O R SCottonwoodAgManagementLLCGladstoneLandCorp.HancockAgriculturalInvestmentGroupPrudentialAgriculturalInvestmentsUBSFarmlandInvestorsLLCUSAgriculture,LLCWestchesterGroupInvestmentManagement,Inc.

T I M B E R L A N D I N D E X D A T A C O N T R I B U T O R SBrookfieldTimberlandsManagement,LPCampbellGlobalLLCConservationForestryPartnersForestInvestmentAssociatesGlobalForestPartnersLPHancockTimberResourceGroupOlympicResourceManagementBTGPactualResourceManagementService,LLCTheMolpusWoodlandsGroupTimberlandInvestmentResources,LLC

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APARTMENT: APPRECIATION RETURN VARIBAILITY The Apartment property type continued to deliver positive

performance through the fourth quarter of 2018. Fundamentals are supporting investor interest, despite total returns continuing to slowly decline. Supply continues to play a role for the property type. While the upper income segment is slowly approaching balance, there is a shortfall nationally concentrated at the middle- and low-income segments and will continue to generate opportunities within the property type.

The NPI Apartment Subindex (“Subindex”) quarterly total return of 1.35% was largely on par with the broader NPI Index (“Index”) of 1.37%. The Subindex and Index both experienced quarterly declines in appreciation return of 20 and 30 bps, respectively, while income return was stable.

The Subindex annual return of 6.07% underperformed the broader Index of 6.72% by 65 bps, with the Subindex’s income return of 4.28% trailing the Index’s 4.56% by 28 bps and the Subindex’s appreciation return of 1.73% trailing the Index’s 2.08% by 35 bps. Contextually, cyclical peaks were achieved for these return components in the first quarter of 2011.

Apartment subtype performance for the fourth quarter continued to vary. High Rise continued to be the more challenged subtype of the three, albeit generating positive performance. Both High Rise and Low Rise subtypes continued to lag the Index respectively at 4.72% and 6.36%; however, Low Rise outperformed the Subindex. The Garden subtype annual return of 8.90% outperformed relative to both the Index and the Subindex.

Apartment annual total return performance for the largest five MSAs by ending market value (which constituted approximately 38% of the Subindex) lagged both the Index and Subindex: New York 3.76%, Washington, D.C. 5.40%, Los Angeles 5.99%, Chicago, 3.15%, Dallas 4.70%. While income return (ranging from 3.57% to 4.27%) was relatively healthy for these heavily-weighted markets in the Subindex, appreciation return was more challenged and variable (ranging from -0.82 to 2.11%, with Los Angeles the only MSA of the five to outperform the Index and Subindex on this measure).

The top five Apartment MSAs with annual total return outperformance relative to the Index and Subindex (these five markets constituted 3% of the Subindex): Las Vegas 26.77%, Sacramento 15.52%, Santa Rosa 15.07%, Phoenix 14.87%, and Riverside 12.50%. Income return (ranging from 5.06% to 5.71%) was very healthy for these lower-weighted markets in the Subindex, however, appreciation return (ranging from 7.10% to 20.23%) was outsized.

The bottom five Apartment MSAs with annual total return underperformance relative to the Index and Subindex (these five markets constituted 2.6% of the Subindex): Baton Rouge -2.17%, Kansas City 1.55%, Stamford 1.94%, Newark 2.55%, and Philadelphia 3.03%. Income return (ranging from 3.78% to 5.32%) was healthy for these lower-weighted markets in the Subindex, however, appreciation return (ranging from -5.79% to -1.12%) was challenged.

As both the business and real estate cycles further mature, appreciation return variability will be an important consideration in subtype and geographic allocation decision-making.

Joe de Foleschampe, CAIAAVP, ResearchBerkshire Residential Investments, LLC

5TH PERCENTILE LOWER MEDIAN UPPER 95TH PERCENTILE

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A P A R T M E N T T O T A L R E T U R N S

Total TotalNPI Apartment East Midwest South West

4thQ2018 1.37 1.35 1.12 0.51 1.54 1.633rdQ2018 1.67 1.55 1.12 0.80 1.68 2.06OneYear 6.72 6.07 4.92 3.63 6.81 7.28ThreeYears 7.21 6.52 5.23 4.61 6.28 8.42FiveYears 9.33 8.34 6.48 6.94 8.49 10.51TenYears 7.49 7.52 5.63 7.78 8.16 8.95TwentyYears 8.98 8.87 8.41 8.09 8.93 9.97

A P A R T M E N T I N C O M E R E T U R N S

Total TotalNPI Apartment East Midwest South West

4thQ2018 1.11 1.05 1.03 1.04 1.12 1.023rdQ2018 1.11 1.04 1.00 1.03 1.09 1.05OneYear 4.56 4.28 4.15 4.22 4.52 4.25ThreeYears 4.67 4.43 4.25 4.39 4.71 4.40FiveYears 4.88 4.59 4.35 4.60 4.95 4.57TenYears 5.48 5.02 4.70 5.21 5.45 4.95TwentyYears 6.39 5.72 5.56 5.83 6.05 5.62

A P A R T M E N T A P P R E C I A T I O N R E T U R N S

Total TotalNPI Apartment East Midwest South West

4thQ2018 0.26 0.30 0.10 -0.53 0.42 0.603rdQ2018 0.56 0.50 0.12 -0.23 0.59 1.02OneYear 2.08 1.73 0.75 -0.57 2.22 2.94ThreeYears 2.46 2.02 0.94 0.20 1.52 3.90FiveYears 4.30 3.62 2.07 2.26 3.41 5.75TenYears 1.92 2.40 0.90 2.47 2.61 3.85TwentyYears 2.47 3.02 2.75 2.17 2.75 4.17

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Low-Rise$14,760.3 million9.58%

Garden$43,355.6 million28.13%

High-Rise$96,029.4 million62.30%

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Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total NPI Apartment Garden NPI Apartment Garden NPI Apartment Garden

4thQ2018 1.37 1.35 2.12 4thQ2018 1.11 1.05 1.21 4thQ2018 0.26 0.30 0.913rdQ2018 1.67 1.55 2.11 3rdQ2018 1.11 1.04 1.20 3rdQ2018 0.56 0.50 0.91OneYear 6.72 6.07 8.90 OneYear 4.56 4.28 4.97 OneYear 2.08 1.73 3.78ThreeYears 7.21 6.52 9.10 ThreeYears 4.67 4.43 5.10 ThreeYears 2.46 2.02 3.85FiveYears 9.33 8.34 10.63 FiveYears 4.88 4.59 5.29 FiveYears 4.30 3.62 5.15TenYears 7.49 7.52 8.76 TenYears 5.48 5.02 5.60 TenYears 1.92 2.40 3.03TwentyYears 8.98 8.87 9.44 TwentyYears 6.39 5.72 6.10 TwentyYears 2.47 3.02 3.20

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4thQ2018 1.37 1.35 1.00 4thQ2018 1.11 1.05 0.98 4thQ2018 0.26 0.30 0.033rdQ2018 1.67 1.55 1.23 3rdQ2018 1.11 1.04 0.96 3rdQ2018 0.56 0.50 0.26OneYear 6.72 6.07 4.72 OneYear 4.56 4.28 3.95 OneYear 2.08 1.73 0.74ThreeYears 7.21 6.52 5.17 ThreeYears 4.67 4.43 4.09 ThreeYears 2.46 2.02 1.05FiveYears 9.33 8.34 7.11 FiveYears 4.88 4.59 4.22 FiveYears 4.30 3.62 2.81TenYears 7.49 7.52 6.56 TenYears 5.48 5.02 4.55 TenYears 1.92 2.40 1.94TwentyYears 8.98 8.87 8.99 TwentyYears 6.39 5.72 5.27 TwentyYears 2.47 3.02 3.58

L O W - R I S E T O T A L R E T U R N S L O W - R I S E I N C O M E R E T U R N S L O W - R I S E A P P R E C I A T I O N R E T U R N S

Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total NPI Apartment Low-Rise NPI Apartment Low-Rise NPI Apartment Low-Rise

4thQ2018 1.37 1.35 1.28 4thQ2018 1.11 1.05 1.06 4thQ2018 0.26 0.30 0.223rdQ2018 1.67 1.55 1.94 3rdQ2018 1.11 1.04 1.07 3rdQ2018 0.56 0.50 0.87OneYear 6.72 6.07 6.36 OneYear 4.56 4.28 4.30 OneYear 2.08 1.73 2.00ThreeYears 7.21 6.52 7.01 ThreeYears 4.67 4.43 4.45 ThreeYears 2.46 2.02 2.49FiveYears 9.33 8.34 8.71 FiveYears 4.88 4.59 4.63 FiveYears 4.30 3.62 3.95TenYears 7.49 7.52 8.26 TenYears 5.48 5.02 5.03 TenYears 1.92 2.40 3.11TwentyYears 8.98 8.87 TwentyYears 6.39 5.72 TwentyYears 2.47 3.02

ApartmentProperties 1,721

GardenProperties 640

HighRiseProperties 897

LowRiseProperties 184

Total Market Value $154,145.3M

Page 9: 40 Year Commemorative Edition - NCREIF · 40 Years NPI 1978-2018 200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135 CHICAGO, IL 60601 312-819-5890 NCREIF National Council of Real Es tate Investment Fiduciaries

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THE INDUSTRIAL E-REVOLUTION CONTINUES

To no surprise, the Industrial NPI once again outperformed all major property types in the fourth quarter of 2018 with a 3.40 percent return; more than twice that of every other sector in the quarter. The difference this quarter is that the Industrial sector is the ONLY one realizing improvement from the third quarter with a 4 bp gain, while every other sector decreased quarter-over-quarter. Looking by region, the East led the charge in the fourth quarter posting a 3.80 percent return, narrowly edging the West with a 3.68 percent return.

The latest gain pushes the total annualized Industrial return to 14.30 percent; 1.9 times that of hotel, 2.1 times that of office, 2.4 times that of apartment, and 6.6 times that of retail. This also marks nine consecutive years with double-digit annualized returns for the Industrial sector. The only other property types to reach double digits are Apartments and Retail, but neither within eight years. The 14.30 percent annualized return for industrial properties marks the largest for any property type within ten years, as well as 15 years, 20 years, and since inception in 1977.

The West region tops the annualized industrial index with 15.93 percent returns, followed by a 14.68 percent return in the East. Notably, the Midwest region is the only one that posted a slight dip in annualized returns, going from 10.10 percent (two years back) to 9.87 percent.

If history has shown us anything, there is no doubt that real estate markets are cyclical and there is even talk of an oversupplied market but when it comes to industrial properties, evidently, if you build it… they will come. According to Costar, the US saw 254 million square feet of deliveries in the past 12-months, and 212 million square feet of positive net absorption (over 83 percent of the new space). The national vacancy rate is a mere 4.9 percent and as a whole, the nation saw 5.3 percent rent growth in the past 12-months.

What’s fueling the continued success and is it in fact cyclical in this case? The obvious and continued epic demand shift to industrial space from retail space, which is bolstered by the ever-increasing portion of E-commerce retail sales in the US, currently estimated at 9.8 percent of total retail sales (3Q18), including sales of fuel and automobiles. Some economists and internet retailers estimate that the figure is in fact more like 13.5 percent. The fact remains, it’s still growing. Since the third quarter of 2017, year-over-year quarterly total retail sales have increased roughly 5.24 percent on average in the US, while E-commerce sales have averaged a 15.6 percent increase during this same time (US Census). Based on these trends, the demand shift is still in motion and the cycle could very well be prolonged. The question is, when do we start referring to this sector as Retail?

Wayne Horvath, MAIDirector, Valuation & Business AnalyticsBDO

I N D U S T R I A L T O T A L R E T U R N S

Total TotalNPI Industrial East Midwest South West

4thQ2018 1.37 3.40 3.80 2.20 3.04 3.683rdQ2018 1.67 3.36 2.88 2.21 3.03 3.94OneYear 6.72 14.30 14.68 9.87 12.68 15.93ThreeYears 7.21 13.22 12.93 9.80 11.07 15.16FiveYears 9.33 13.59 12.83 11.05 12.17 15.12TenYears 7.49 9.24 9.01 7.20 8.43 10.26TwentyYears 8.98 9.93 9.83 7.86 8.58 11.28

I N D U S T R I A L I N C O M E R E T U R N S

Total TotalNPI Industrial East Midwest South West

4thQ2018 1.11 1.17 1.22 1.36 1.24 1.083rdQ2018 1.11 1.19 1.20 1.32 1.31 1.10OneYear 4.56 4.88 4.97 5.44 5.34 4.52ThreeYears 4.67 5.08 5.27 5.58 5.54 4.68FiveYears 4.88 5.30 5.57 5.83 5.79 4.86TenYears 5.48 5.95 6.30 6.39 6.30 5.54TwentyYears 6.39 6.87 7.19 7.23 7.12 6.53

I N D U S T R I A L A P P R E C I A T I O N R E T U R N S

Total TotalNPI Industrial East Midwest South West

4thQ2018 0.26 2.22 2.58 0.84 1.80 2.593rdQ2018 0.56 2.17 1.68 0.90 1.72 2.83OneYear 2.08 9.09 9.37 4.25 7.06 11.05ThreeYears 2.46 7.85 7.38 4.06 5.31 10.13FiveYears 4.30 7.97 6.97 5.00 6.12 9.91TenYears 1.92 3.15 2.58 0.77 2.03 4.52TwentyYears 2.47 2.91 2.50 0.60 1.38 4.52

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TOTAL INDUSTRIAL

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Other $2,301.6 million2.28%

Warehouse$93,834.2 million93.08%

Flex $3,849.0 million3.82%

R&D $822.0 million0.82%

W A R E H O U S E T O T A L R E T U R N S W A R E H O U S E I N C O M E R E T U R N S W A R E H O U S E A P P R E C I A T I O N R E T U R N S

Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total NPI Industrial Warehouse NPI Industrial Warehouse NPI Industrial Warehouse

4thQ2018 1.37 3.40 3.44 4thQ2018 1.11 1.17 1.16 4thQ2018 0.26 2.22 2.283rdQ2018 1.67 3.36 3.34 3rdQ2018 1.11 1.19 1.17 3rdQ2018 0.56 2.17 2.17OneYear 6.72 14.30 14.30 OneYear 4.56 4.88 4.82 OneYear 2.08 9.09 9.15ThreeYears 7.21 13.22 13.31 ThreeYears 4.67 5.08 5.03 ThreeYears 2.46 7.85 7.99FiveYears 9.33 13.59 13.77 FiveYears 4.88 5.30 5.26 FiveYears 4.30 7.97 8.19TenYears 7.49 9.24 9.49 TenYears 5.48 5.95 5.91 TenYears 1.92 3.15 3.42TwentyYears 8.98 9.93 10.06 TwentyYears 6.39 6.87 6.83 TwentyYears 2.47 2.91 3.07

R & D T O T A L R E T U R N S R & D I N C O M E R E T U R N S R & D A P P R E C I A T I O N R E T U R N S

Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total NPI Industrial R&D NPI Industrial R&D NPI Industrial R&D

4thQ2018 1.37 3.40 3.99 4thQ2018 1.11 1.17 1.47 4thQ2018 0.26 2.22 2.523rdQ2018 1.67 3.36 2.64 3rdQ2018 1.11 1.19 1.59 3rdQ2018 0.56 2.17 1.04OneYear 6.72 14.30 12.13 OneYear 4.56 4.88 5.90 OneYear 2.08 9.09 5.97ThreeYears 7.21 13.22 12.74 ThreeYears 4.67 5.08 5.61 ThreeYears 2.46 7.85 6.85FiveYears 9.33 13.59 12.00 FiveYears 4.88 5.30 5.37 FiveYears 4.30 7.97 6.38TenYears 7.49 9.24 8.89 TenYears 5.48 5.95 6.14 TenYears 1.92 3.15 2.62TwentyYears 8.98 9.93 9.17 TwentyYears 6.39 6.87 7.02 TwentyYears 2.47 2.91 2.05

F L E X S P A C E T O T A L R E T U R N S F L E X S P A C E I N C O M E R E T U R N S F L E X S P A C E A P P R E C I A T I O N R E T U R N S

Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total NPI Industrial Flex NPI Industrial Flex NPI Industrial Flex

4thQ2018 1.37 3.40 2.72 4thQ2018 1.11 1.17 1.30 4thQ2018 0.26 2.22 1.433rdQ2018 1.67 3.36 3.48 3rdQ2018 1.11 1.19 1.41 3rdQ2018 0.56 2.17 2.07OneYear 6.72 14.30 13.66 OneYear 4.56 4.88 5.63 OneYear 2.08 9.09 7.71ThreeYears 7.21 13.22 11.63 ThreeYears 4.67 5.08 5.77 ThreeYears 2.46 7.85 5.62FiveYears 9.33 13.59 11.64 FiveYears 4.88 5.30 5.92 FiveYears 4.30 7.97 5.47TenYears 7.49 9.24 6.84 TenYears 5.48 5.95 6.41 TenYears 1.92 3.15 0.40TwentyYears 8.98 9.93 8.78 TwentyYears 6.39 6.87 7.16 TwentyYears 2.47 2.91 1.54

IndustrialProperties 3,400

R&DProperties 27

FlexSpaceProperties 229

OtherProperties 85

WarehouseProperties 3,059

Total Market Value $100,806.8M

Page 11: 40 Year Commemorative Edition - NCREIF · 40 Years NPI 1978-2018 200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135 CHICAGO, IL 60601 312-819-5890 NCREIF National Council of Real Es tate Investment Fiduciaries

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The final quarter of 2018 marks 12th straight quarter of below historic average total returns in the office sector of the NCREIF Property Index (NPI). The sector’s 2018 appreciation returns reached 2.3%, an increase of 94 basis point (BP) over 2017, but historically low income returns kept the annual total returns below 7% for the 3rd straight year. The annual income returns in 2018 were 4.49%, the lowest for the sector in index history. Yields in the other sectors are also near all-time lows. Nonetheless, the annual total returns for 2018 reached 6.85%, slightly outpacing the full NPI total returns of 6.72%. This is the first year the office sector has out-performed the broader index since 2007.

In the fourth quarter, the office sector achieved quarterly total returns of 1.65%, slightly lower than in 2018Q3. The quarterly total returns out-performed the broader index by 27 basis points. Only the industrial sector had higher quarterly total returns than the office sector. The quarterly total returns were comprised of appreciation returns of 0.58% and income returns of 1.07%. The apartment sector was the only sector with lower quarterly yields, at 1.05% in the 4th quarter.

Across regions, the office sector had a wide dispersion of returns. The West region significantly out-performed other regions, with quarterly total returns reaching 2.38%. The West region has been the top office region in 6 of the last 8 quarters. With total returns of 1.26%, the East region was the second highest performing Office region, driven by positive appreciation returns of 0.25%. The two worst performing Office regions, the South and Midwest, both had negative appreciation returns, -0.09% and -0.10% respectively. For the South region, this is a significant decline from 2018Q3, when appreciation returns were 0.65%.

Office occupancy is near all-time highs, at 90% leased, according to Costar Market Analytics. After 6 years of annual asking rent growth over 2%, rent growth has slowed to 1.99% in 2018. This marks the third year of decelerating rent growth from the post-recession peak of 6.1% growth in 2015. The NPI same-store annual NOI growth was 1.82%, down from 8.96% in 2017. New starts in 2018 reached a 5-year low at only 49 million square feet. Office-Using employment growth rose to 2.1% in 2018, after 4 prior years of declining growth.

The Office sector had a 15% increase in quarterly sales volume in 2018Q4 over 2017Q4, according to Real Capital Analytics. Although volume has risen the last 6 months, the total volume for 2018 is only 2% higher than in 2017. The increase in quarterly transaction volume is attributable to a large gain in the East Region, whose transaction volume in 2018Q4 increased by 46% over 2017Q4. This increase in the East Region was seen across markets, with Boston, NYC, Philly and DC all having significant increases in volume. The South saw a decline of 19.2%; Both Atlanta and Miami saw declines, while volume in Charlotte doubled. The West and Midwest regions saw modest increases, 2.3% and 4% respectively.

Erik Thomas, CFADirector, Research Hines

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Total TotalNPI Office East Midwest South West

4thQ2018 1.37 1.65 1.26 0.95 1.17 2.383rdQ2018 1.67 1.69 1.36 1.23 1.97 2.06OneYear 6.72 6.85 4.96 5.28 8.03 8.93ThreeYears 7.21 6.36 4.93 5.34 6.14 8.33FiveYears 9.33 8.58 6.91 7.48 8.86 10.73TenYears 7.49 6.44 6.02 4.76 6.16 7.45TwentyYears 8.98 8.28 8.75 5.92 7.26 9.05

O F F I C E I N C O M E R E T U R N S

Total TotalNPI Office East Midwest South West

4thQ2018 1.11 1.07 1.00 1.05 1.26 1.093rdQ2018 1.11 1.10 1.04 1.10 1.32 1.11OneYear 4.56 4.49 4.15 4.88 5.35 4.53ThreeYears 4.67 4.55 4.15 5.43 5.58 4.55FiveYears 4.88 4.73 4.38 5.63 5.68 4.68TenYears 5.48 5.40 5.14 6.19 6.03 5.36TwentyYears 6.39 6.38 6.26 6.98 6.87 6.23

O F F I C E A P P R E C I A T I O N R E T U R N S

Total TotalNPI Office East Midwest South West

4thQ2018 0.26 0.58 0.25 -0.10 -0.09 1.293rdQ2018 0.56 0.58 0.32 0.13 0.65 0.95OneYear 2.08 2.28 0.78 0.39 2.58 4.26ThreeYears 2.46 1.75 0.76 -0.09 0.54 3.65FiveYears 4.30 3.72 2.44 1.78 3.06 5.85TenYears 1.92 1.00 0.84 -1.37 0.12 1.99TwentyYears 2.47 1.81 2.38 -1.01 0.36 2.69

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TOTAL OFFICE

O F F I C E S U B - T Y P E S I N D E X

CBD$127,472.3 million59.41% Suburban

$87,108.5 million40.59%

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Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total NPI Office CBD NPI Office CBD NPI Office CBD

4thQ2018 1.37 1.65 1.59 4thQ2018 1.11 1.07 0.99 4thQ2018 0.26 0.58 0.603rdQ2018 1.67 1.69 1.62 3rdQ2018 1.11 1.10 1.02 3rdQ2018 0.56 0.58 0.60OneYear 6.72 6.85 6.45 OneYear 4.56 4.49 4.16 OneYear 2.08 2.28 2.22ThreeYears 7.21 6.36 6.05 ThreeYears 4.67 4.55 4.17 ThreeYears 2.46 1.75 1.83FiveYears 9.33 8.58 8.39 FiveYears 4.88 4.73 4.32 FiveYears 4.30 3.72 3.94TenYears 7.49 6.44 6.95 TenYears 5.48 5.40 4.97 TenYears 1.92 1.00 1.90TwentyYears 8.98 8.28 9.22 TwentyYears 6.39 6.38 6.01 TwentyYears 2.47 1.81 3.07

S U B U R B A N T O T A L R E T U R N S S U B U R B A N I N C O M E R E T U R N S S U B U R B A N A P P R E C I A T I O N R E T U R N S

Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total NPI Office Suburban NPI Office Suburban NPI Office Suburban

4thQ2018 1.37 1.65 1.73 4thQ2018 1.11 1.07 1.19 4thQ2018 0.26 0.58 0.533rdQ2018 1.67 1.69 1.78 3rdQ2018 1.11 1.10 1.23 3rdQ2018 0.56 0.58 0.56OneYear 6.72 6.85 7.42 OneYear 4.56 4.49 4.96 OneYear 2.08 2.28 2.37ThreeYears 7.21 6.36 6.80 ThreeYears 4.67 4.55 5.09 ThreeYears 2.46 1.75 1.65FiveYears 9.33 8.58 8.83 FiveYears 4.88 4.73 5.28 FiveYears 4.30 3.72 3.41TenYears 7.49 6.44 6.07 TenYears 5.48 5.40 5.87 TenYears 1.92 1.00 0.18TwentyYears 8.98 8.28 7.66 TwentyYears 6.39 6.38 6.72 TwentyYears 2.47 1.81 0.89

OfficeProperties 1,454

CBDProperties 446

SuburbanProperties 1,008

Total Market Value $214,580.8M

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Total TotalNPI Retail East Midwest South West

4thQ2018 1.37 -0.43 -0.71 -1.49 -0.73 0.153rdQ2018 1.67 0.56 0.28 -0.22 0.63 0.90OneYear 6.72 2.18 0.42 0.18 1.84 4.03ThreeYears 7.21 5.59 4.28 4.06 5.94 6.67FiveYears 9.33 8.95 7.78 7.61 9.69 9.66TenYears 7.49 8.24 7.48 7.24 8.81 8.69TwentyYears 8.98 10.01 9.64 8.64 9.88 10.91

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Total TotalNPI Retail East Midwest South West

4thQ2018 1.11 1.16 1.20 1.13 1.20 1.123rdQ2018 1.11 1.13 1.18 1.13 1.17 1.07OneYear 4.56 4.66 4.77 4.66 4.82 4.49ThreeYears 4.67 4.74 4.83 4.79 4.82 4.60FiveYears 4.88 4.99 5.07 5.09 5.10 4.83TenYears 5.48 5.73 5.75 5.90 5.87 5.54TwentyYears 6.39 6.62 6.66 6.73 6.68 6.52

R E T A I L A P P R E C I A T I O N R E T U R N S

Total TotalNPI Retail East Midwest South West

4thQ2018 0.26 -1.60 -1.91 -2.62 -1.94 -0.973rdQ2018 0.56 -0.57 -0.90 -1.35 -0.54 -0.18OneYear 2.08 -2.40 -4.20 -4.33 -2.88 -0.44ThreeYears 2.46 0.83 -0.54 -0.71 1.09 2.01FiveYears 4.30 3.82 2.61 2.43 4.43 4.66TenYears 1.92 2.41 1.67 1.29 2.81 3.03TwentyYears 2.47 3.23 2.85 1.83 3.05 4.19

ANNOUNCING NEW DISCOUNTSTotal returns for the retail sector slipped into negative

territory in fourth quarter 2018, weighed down by -1.60% appreciation return for the sector, as cautious sentiment for retail and negative headlines for department store anchors continued unabated. Countering conventional wisdom, in-store retail sales grew at a healthy rate, helped along by fiscal stimulus, rising 5.7% year-over-year over third quarter 2018. But with e-commerce sales increasing 11.0% year-on-year over the same period, two factors - the shifting channels for sales and the mismatch between America’s retail footprint and today’s retail demand - are driving sharp differentiation in performance at retail properties. In aggregate the appreciation indices for regional and super-regional shopping mall subtypes were marked down by -2.47% and -2.52%, respectively, in the fourth quarter, the steepest declines among retail subtypes. However, this masks the widening spread in both cap rates and NOI growth between high-productivity and low-productivity malls. Meanwhile neighborhood center appreciation declined to -0.23%, while single-tenant retail was the only retail subtype to avoid value markdowns in the fourth quarter, at 0.22% appreciation. The sector’s quarterly total return of -0.43% was retail’s first negative quarterly return since the end of the GFC in fourth quarter 2009, and marks the first quarter for any NPI sector with a negative return since the cycle began.

Vacancy at NPI-owned retail properties actually improved over the year to fourth quarter 2018 and ended the year at 6.92%, twenty basis points below the sector’s five-year average. NOI growth of 2.18% in fourth quarter 2018 also improved from its year-ago mark, although in-store sales growth is increasingly challenging for owners to translate into higher rents. Given the converse strength of the industrial sector, where NOI growth hit 9.61% in the fourth quarter, the retail sector’s current cap rates increased to 5.27%, wider than the industrial sector for the third consecutive quarter.

Amid the headwinds, retail properties selling out of the NCREIF Property Index dropped to a multi-year low in 2018, with 39 properties trading out of the index, half of the five-year average and apart from the GFC in 2008 and 2009, the lowest pace for retail properties sold out of the NPI in 20 years. The aggregate outbound sales volume of $1.2 billion over 2018 also declined from an average of $3.3 billion over 2014 through 2017, a fall that is unique to the retail sector and reflects its challenges and weak investor sentiment.

Retail owners are responding by reinvesting capital where warranted, to reinvent their properties for an era with greater demand for vibrant mixed-use retail assets. Among the 62 super-regional malls within the NPI, totaling 60 million square feet, capital expenditure per square foot has increased from roughly $8.50 in 2014 to nearly $14 in 2018, led by tenant improvements and building improvements and expansions. Equating to more than 30% of NOI, these increasing capex projects demonstrate the race to orient malls towards a modern, multi-use and omnichannel-focused retail business model.

Margaret HarbaughExecutive Director, Research & StrategyMorgan Stanley Real Assets

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Fashion/Specialty Center $13,231.3 million9.51%

TOTAL RETAIL

R E T A I L S U B - T Y P E S I N D E X

Other $4,533.9 million3.26%

Regional $18,376.7 million13.21%

Super Regional$52,258.9 million37.56%

Community$15,352.6 million11.03%

Power Center$16,002.9 million11.50%

Neighborhood$19,376.6 million13.93%

C O M M U N I T Y T O T A L R E T U R N S C O M M U N I T Y I N C O M E R E T U R N S C O M M U N I T Y A P P R E C I A T I O N R E T U R N S

Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total NPI Retail Community NPI Retail Community NPI Retail Community

4thQ2018 1.37 -0.43 0.52 4thQ2018 1.11 1.16 1.31 4thQ2018 0.26 -1.60 -0.793rdQ2018 1.67 0.56 1.30 3rdQ2018 1.11 1.13 1.33 3rdQ2018 0.56 -0.57 -0.03OneYear 6.72 2.18 4.57 OneYear 4.56 4.66 5.36 OneYear 2.08 -2.40 -0.76ThreeYears 7.21 5.59 6.29 ThreeYears 4.67 4.74 5.34 ThreeYears 2.46 0.83 0.91FiveYears 9.33 8.95 8.63 FiveYears 4.88 4.99 5.53 FiveYears 4.30 3.82 2.98TenYears 7.49 8.24 7.51 TenYears 5.48 5.73 6.10 TenYears 1.92 2.41 1.34TwentyYears 8.98 10.01 9.63 TwentyYears 6.39 6.62 6.97 TwentyYears 2.47 3.23 2.54

N E I G H B O R H O O D T O T A L R E T U R N S N E I G H B O R H O O D I N C O M E R E T U R N S N E I G H B O R H O O D A P P R E C I A T I O N R E T U R N S

Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total NPI Retail Neighborhood NPI Retail Neighborhood NPI Retail Neighborhood

4thQ2018 1.37 -0.43 0.98 4thQ2018 1.11 1.16 1.21 4thQ2018 0.26 -1.60 -0.233rdQ2018 1.67 0.56 1.33 3rdQ2018 1.11 1.13 1.21 3rdQ2018 0.56 -0.57 0.12OneYear 6.72 2.18 5.50 OneYear 4.56 4.66 4.98 OneYear 2.08 -2.40 0.50ThreeYears 7.21 5.59 7.07 ThreeYears 4.67 4.74 5.09 ThreeYears 2.46 0.83 1.91FiveYears 9.33 8.95 9.87 FiveYears 4.88 4.99 5.36 FiveYears 4.30 3.82 4.33TenYears 7.49 8.24 8.12 TenYears 5.48 5.73 6.02 TenYears 1.92 2.41 2.00TwentyYears 8.98 10.01 10.06 TwentyYears 6.39 6.62 6.96 TwentyYears 2.47 3.23 2.95

R E G I O N A L T O T A L R E T U R N S R E G I O N A L I N C O M E R E T U R N S R E G I O N A L A P P R E C I A T I O N R E T U R N S

Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total NPI Retail Regional NPI Retail Regional NPI Retail Regional

4thQ2018 1.37 -0.43 -1.28 4thQ2018 1.11 1.16 1.19 4thQ2018 0.26 -1.60 -2.473rdQ2018 1.67 0.56 -1.05 3rdQ2018 1.11 1.13 1.10 3rdQ2018 0.56 -0.57 -2.15OneYear 6.72 2.18 -1.50 OneYear 4.56 4.66 4.60 OneYear 2.08 -2.40 -5.90ThreeYears 7.21 5.59 4.04 ThreeYears 4.67 4.74 4.68 ThreeYears 2.46 0.83 -0.61FiveYears 9.33 8.95 8.26 FiveYears 4.88 4.99 4.94 FiveYears 4.30 3.82 3.20TenYears 7.49 8.24 8.03 TenYears 5.48 5.73 5.67 TenYears 1.92 2.41 2.27TwentyYears 8.98 10.01 10.14 TwentyYears 6.39 6.62 6.50 TwentyYears 2.47 3.23 3.48

S U P E R R E G I O N A L T O T A L R E T U R N S S U P E R R E G I O N A L I N C O M E R E T U R N S S U P E R R E G I O N A L A P P R E C I A T I O N R E T U R N S

Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total NPI Retail Super Regional NPI Retail Super Regional NPI Retail Super Regional

4thQ2018 1.37 -0.43 -1.45 4thQ2018 1.11 1.16 1.07 4thQ2018 0.26 -1.60 -2.523rdQ2018 1.67 0.56 0.14 3rdQ2018 1.11 1.13 1.01 3rdQ2018 0.56 -0.57 -0.88OneYear 6.72 2.18 0.59 OneYear 4.56 4.66 4.28 OneYear 2.08 -2.40 -3.58ThreeYears 7.21 5.59 5.52 ThreeYears 4.67 4.74 4.36 ThreeYears 2.46 0.83 1.12FiveYears 9.33 8.95 9.59 FiveYears 4.88 4.99 4.63 FiveYears 4.30 3.82 4.79TenYears 7.49 8.24 9.68 TenYears 5.48 5.73 5.43 TenYears 1.92 2.41 4.08TwentyYears 8.98 10.01 10.92 TwentyYears 6.39 6.62 6.36 TwentyYears 2.47 3.23 4.36

RetailProperties 1,231CommunityProperties 240Fashion/SpecialtyCenter

Properties89

NeighborhoodProperties 493PowerCenterProperties 193RegionalProperties 61SuperRegionalProperties 62OtherProperties 93Total Market Value $139,132.9M

Page 15: 40 Year Commemorative Edition - NCREIF · 40 Years NPI 1978-2018 200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135 CHICAGO, IL 60601 312-819-5890 NCREIF National Council of Real Es tate Investment Fiduciaries

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A NEW ERA OF ODCE PERFORMANCE

The NFI-ODCE index closed out the year with a 1.76% gross total return, of which 0.74% came from appreciation and the remaining 1.01% from income; ending 2018 with an 8.35% gross annual total return. Almost ten years since the trough of the great financial crisis, this quarter’s results follow a three-year trend of income and appreciation sharing an approximately equal contribution to return, illustrated in the chart below. Over the long run NFI-ODCE income return makes up the majority of total return. Income return comprises approximately 82% of the since inception return of 8.71% as of 4Q18; with 7.16% of the return coming from income and 1.47% from appreciation.

Among the four primary property types in the ODCE, the NPI quarterly total return performance in 4Q18 remained consistent in rank from the previous quarter, as well as throughout the calendar year. Industrial cemented a fourth full year as the highest returning sector among all ODCE property types (including hotel) with a gross property-level total return of 14.1%, followed by Hotel at 9.6%, Office at 7.0%, Apartments at 5.4%, and Retail at 3.9%.

Persistent trends offer an easy (but overly simplistic) heuristic to understanding the market environment, because they hold – until they don’t. Examining the ODCE allocation by sub-property type offers insight into constituent manager’s reactions to changes in the market environment. Within the NPI-ODCE, three large sub-type shifts occurred over the past seven years, within the Office, Apartment, and Industrial sectors as shown on the right hand side.

Garden apartments had the largest absolute change over the past seven years since 2011 within the NPI-ODCE, decreasing from roughly 11.0% to 5.2% of the index, while high-rise apartments grew from 11.7% to 16.8%. Over this period NPI-ODCE garden apartments returned 9.9% annually, while high-rise apartments had returned 7.5%. This inverse return and allocation trend occurred simultaneously in the next largest shift in the index, within the Office sector.

The NPI-ODCE allocation to CBD office grew from 21.2% to 24.2%, while suburban office decreased from 18.1% to 15.2% as shown in the chart above. The annual total return for these sectors over the time period averaged 9.1% for CBD office and 10.1% for suburban office. At the beginning of the period before the shifts, the long-run (10-year) annual average return for CBD office at 7.6% had exceeded suburban office at 5.7%. This was also true for Apartments at the beginning of the period, where the long-run (10-Year) annual average return for high-rise apartments at 10.3% had exceeded garden apartment returns of 8.4%. Neither historic relative performance nor increasing ODCE allocations portended outperformance of these subsectors.

Industrial warehouse allocation within the NPI-ODCE increased by 2.9% since 2011 to approximately 13.9% by market value, and increased 81% by property count, compared to 51% on average for the index subtypes. The relative growth of this sector coincides with double-digit outperformance, over a period where NFI-ODCE appreciation return and cap-rate compression have become a smaller component of NFI-ODCE total return.

Joshua T. RomeResearch AnalystUBS Realty Investors, LLC

Page 16: 40 Year Commemorative Edition - NCREIF · 40 Years NPI 1978-2018 200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135 CHICAGO, IL 60601 312-819-5890 NCREIF National Council of Real Es tate Investment Fiduciaries

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N C R E I F - A B R I E F H I S T O R Y

The National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) is an association of

institutional real estate professionals who share a common interest in their industry. Although

June 17, 1982, marks the official beginning of NCREIF, the difficult task of uniting a highly

competitive industry actually began in the late 1970’s. Following several meetings, 14 investment

managers agreed in principle to form a nonprofit entity to foster research on the asset class. This

led to the development of a database consisting of property operating information which evolved

into what has now become the NCREIF Property Index. On January 1, 1995, thirteen years after its

inception, NCREIF assumed full responsibility for the Index, its publication and distribution.

N C R E I F M E M B E R S H I P

Our membership is comprised of:

n Data Contributing Members:Investment managers or plan sponsors who manage or own

institutional real estate with a market value of at least $50 million are eligible to become Data

Contributing Members. Responsibility to report qualifying assets to the applicable indexes and

other research projects is a part of membership; all data is held in strict confidence. NCREIF

provides data-training and ongoing assistance to members.

n Professional Members: Companies with significant involvement in the institutional real estate

industry are eligible to become Professional Members. Professional Members include, but are

not limited to, accountants, appraisers, and consultants.

n Academic Members: Full-time academic appointees who have significant and ongoing

academic interest in research activities are eligible to become Academic Members.

Members participate in nine working committees: Accounting, Defined Contribution, Farmland,

Performance Measurement, Plan Sponsor, Portfolio Management, Research, Timberland and

Valuation. Each committee follows a stated mission and meets three times a year to address and

solve industry issues. These peer group interactions, as well as quarterly updates on the index, pro-

vide members with access to the institutional real estate industry that no other association can offer.

A B O U T N C R E I F

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N P I M E T R O P O L I T A N S T A T I S T I C A L A R E A ( M S A ) P R O F I L EMetropolitan Numberof EndingMarket %ofTotalNPI 1-yearReturnStatisticalArea(MSA) Properties Value($millions) MarketValue 4thQ2018AZ-Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale(38060) 168 9,551 1.56 5.48AZ-Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale/Apartment 34 2,323 .38 14.87AZ-Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale/Apartment-Garden 24 1,357 .22 16.48AZ-Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale/Industrial 63 1,038 .17 9.91AZ-Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale/Industrial-Warehouse 53 866 .14 9.13AZ-Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale/Office 43 1,696 .28 4.87AZ-Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale/Office-Suburban 41 1,639 .27 4.86AZ-Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale/Retail 25 4,382 .72 .54CA-Anaheim-SantaAna-Irvine(11244) 195 12,925 2.11 7.85CA-Anaheim-SantaAna-Irvine/Apartment 31 3,501 .57 7.84CA-Anaheim-SantaAna-Irvine/Industrial 91 3,196 .52 16.60CA-Anaheim-SantaAna-Irvine/Industrial-Warehouse 69 2,700 .44 16.77CA-Anaheim-SantaAna-Irvine/Office 47 3,197 .52 4.88CA-Anaheim-SantaAna-Irvine/Office-Suburban 47 3,197 .52 4.88CA-Anaheim-SantaAna-Irvine/Retail 26 3,029 .50 2.58CA-LosAngeles-LongBeach-Glendale(31084) 514 46,261 7.56 8.73CA-LosAngeles-LongBeach-Glendale/Apartment 101 10,646 1.74 5.99CA-LosAngeles-LongBeach-Glendale/Apartment-HighRise 70 7,636 1.25 5.52CA-LosAngeles-LongBeach-Glendale/Industrial 250 10,392 1.70 15.93CA-LosAngeles-LongBeach-Glendale/Industrial-Warehouse 225 9,978 1.63 15.92CA-LosAngeles-LongBeach-Glendale/Office 88 17,154 2.80 8.39CA-LosAngeles-LongBeach-Glendale/Office-Suburban 80 14,296 2.34 8.34CA-LosAngeles-LongBeach-Glendale/Retail 73 8,011 1.31 4.49CA-Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley(36084) 217 14,827 2.42 10.66CA-Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley/Apartment 34 2,963 .48 7.89CA-Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley/Industrial 103 4,007 .66 17.60CA-Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley/Industrial-Warehouse 83 3,406 .56 17.61CA-Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley/Office 47 4,367 .71 11.67CA-Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley/Office-Suburban 38 3,360 .55 10.46CA-Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley/Retail 33 3,488 .57 4.14CA-Riverside-SanBernardino-Ontario(40140) 255 16,504 2.70 13.18CA-Riverside-SanBernardino-Ontario/Apartment 23 1,350 .22 12.50CA-Riverside-SanBernardino-Ontario/Apartment-Garden 21 1,163 .19 12.48CA-Riverside-SanBernardino-Ontario/Industrial 215 12,748 2.08 14.83CA-Riverside-SanBernardino-Ontario/Industrial-Warehouse 203 12,515 2.05 14.84CA-Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade(40900) 27 1,672 .27 7.60CA-SanDiego-Carlsbad(41740) 169 15,238 2.49 8.00CA-SanDiego-Carlsbad/Apartment 33 4,188 .68 8.76CA-SanDiego-Carlsbad/Industrial 54 1,710 .28 14.24CA-SanDiego-Carlsbad/Industrial-Warehouse 38 1,160 .19 13.67CA-SanDiego-Carlsbad/Office 44 3,765 .62 6.10CA-SanDiego-Carlsbad/Office-Suburban 37 2,804 .46 4.97CA-SanDiego-Carlsbad/Retail 37 5,556 .91 6.93CA-SanFrancisco-RedwoodCity-SouthSanFrancisco(41884) 173 28,802 4.71 9.64CA-SanFrancisco-RedwoodCity-SouthSanFrancisco/Industrial 38 1,379 .23 19.93CA-SanFrancisco-RedwoodCity-SouthSanFrancisco/Industrial-Wareh 24 913 .15 22.89CA-SanFrancisco-RedwoodCity-SouthSanFrancisco/Office 81 20,797 3.40 10.79CA-SanFrancisco-RedwoodCity-SouthSanFrancisco/Office-CBD 39 12,462 2.04 11.53CA-SanFrancisco-RedwoodCity-SouthSanFrancisco/Office-Suburban 42 8,335 1.36 9.72CA-SanJose-Sunnyvale-SantaClara(41940) 139 16,701 2.73 9.31CA-SanJose-Sunnyvale-SantaClara/Industrial 42 1,340 .22 15.59CA-SanJose-Sunnyvale-SantaClara/Industrial-Warehouse 37 1,116 .18 15.01CA-SanJose-Sunnyvale-SantaClara/Office 63 8,608 1.41 10.06CA-SanJose-Sunnyvale-SantaClara/Office-Suburban 58 7,805 1.28 10.03CO-Denver-Aurora-Lakewood(19740) 254 18,002 2.94 5.91CO-Denver-Aurora-Lakewood/Apartment 81 7,251 1.19 7.49CO-Denver-Aurora-Lakewood/Apartment-Garden 32 2,867 .47 9.86CO-Denver-Aurora-Lakewood/Apartment-HighRise 38 3,475 .57 5.85CO-Denver-Aurora-Lakewood/Industrial 85 1,576 .26 12.83CO-Denver-Aurora-Lakewood/Industrial-Warehouse 83 1,502 .25 11.76CO-Denver-Aurora-Lakewood/Office 51 5,208 .85 3.56CO-Denver-Aurora-Lakewood/Office-Suburban 32 1,739 .28 5.69CO-Denver-Aurora-Lakewood/Retail 34 3,793 .62 3.74DC-VA-MD-WV-Washington-Arlington-Alexandria(47894) 373 45,693 7.47 4.24DC-VA-MD-WV-Washington-Arlington-Alexandria/Apartment 106 11,763 1.92 5.40DC-VA-MD-WV-Washington-Arlington-Alexandria/Apartment-HighRise 81 9,366 1.53 4.87DC-VA-MD-WV-Washington-Arlington-Alexandria/Industrial 55 1,423 .23 12.34DC-VA-MD-WV-Washington-Arlington-Alexandria/Industrial-Warehou 49 1,088 .18 12.60DC-VA-MD-WV-Washington-Arlington-Alexandria/Office 139 23,496 3.84 3.73DC-VA-MD-WV-Washington-Arlington-Alexandria/Office-CBD 63 16,566 2.71 3.76DC-VA-MD-WV-Washington-Arlington-Alexandria/Office-Suburban 76 6,929 1.13 3.64DC-VA-MD-WV-Washington-Arlington-Alexandria/Retail 70 8,734 1.43 2.92DC-VA-MD-WV-Washington-Arlington-Alexandria/Retail-Neighborhood 34 1,813 .30 4.58FL-FortLauderdale-PompanoBeach-DeerfieldBeach(22744) 133 6,728 1.10 8.05FL-FortLauderdale-PompanoBeach-DeerfieldBeach/Apartment 38 3,070 .50 6.35FL-FortLauderdale-PompanoBeach-DeerfieldBeach/Apartment-Garden 24 1,632 .27 8.28FL-FortLauderdale-PompanoBeach-DeerfieldBeach/Industrial 59 1,359 .22 13.60FL-FortLauderdale-PompanoBeach-DeerfieldBeach/Industrial-Wareh 56 1,300 .21 13.58FL-Miami-MiamiBeach-Kendall(33124) 174 13,608 2.22 6.75FL-Miami-MiamiBeach-Kendall/Apartment 31 3,068 .50 4.53FL-Miami-MiamiBeach-Kendall/Industrial 97 3,499 .57 13.59FL-Miami-MiamiBeach-Kendall/Industrial-Warehouse 90 3,388 .55 13.73FL-Miami-MiamiBeach-Kendall/Retail 28 4,591 .75 4.69FL-Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford(36740) 97 5,804 .95 6.98FL-Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford/Apartment 22 1,324 .22 11.96FL-Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford/Industrial 45 863 .14 17.06FL-Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford/Industrial-Warehouse 45 863 .14 17.06FL-Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford/Retail 23 3,226 .53 2.84FL-Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater(45300) 45 2,539 .42 9.58FL-Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater/Apartment 25 1,568 .26 11.40FL-WestPalmBeach-BocaRaton-DelrayBeach(48424) 62 4,535 .74 6.17FL-WestPalmBeach-BocaRaton-DelrayBeach/Apartment 33 2,586 .42 6.79GA-Atlanta-SandySprings-Roswell(12060) 390 16,541 2.70 7.96GA-Atlanta-SandySprings-Roswell/Apartment 76 5,865 .96 7.88GA-Atlanta-SandySprings-Roswell/Apartment-Garden 27 1,886 .31 9.06GA-Atlanta-SandySprings-Roswell/Apartment-HighRise 41 3,353 .55 7.39GA-Atlanta-SandySprings-Roswell/Industrial 211 3,419 .56 12.53GA-Atlanta-SandySprings-Roswell/Industrial-Warehouse 201 3,349 .55 12.68GA-Atlanta-SandySprings-Roswell/Office 45 3,880 .63 9.38GA-Atlanta-SandySprings-Roswell/Office-Suburban 31 2,271 .37 8.97GA-Atlanta-SandySprings-Roswell/Retail 55 3,332 .54 2.62IL-Chicago-Naperville-ArlingtonHeights(16974) 479 36,241 5.93 3.91IL-Chicago-Naperville-ArlingtonHeights/Apartment 77 10,633 1.74 3.15IL-Chicago-Naperville-ArlingtonHeights/Apartment-HighRise 55 8,710 1.42 2.32IL-Chicago-Naperville-ArlingtonHeights/Industrial 271 6,116 1.00 10.45IL-Chicago-Naperville-ArlingtonHeights/Industrial-Warehouse 262 5,694 .93 9.76IL-Chicago-Naperville-ArlingtonHeights/Office 44 10,525 1.72 5.49IL-Chicago-Naperville-ArlingtonHeights/Office-CBD 32 10,054 1.64 5.64IL-Chicago-Naperville-ArlingtonHeights/Retail 80 8,611 1.41 -1.04IL-Chicago-Naperville-ArlingtonHeights/Retail-Neighborhood 36 1,077 .18 3.66IL-Elgin(20994) 29 821 .13 3.60IL-Elgin/Industrial 27 687 .11 7.30IL-Elgin/Industrial-Warehouse 27 687 .11 7.30IL-WI-LakeCounty-KenoshaCounty(29404) 56 1,650 .27 5.49IL-WI-LakeCounty-KenoshaCounty/Industrial 34 793 .13 9.55IL-WI-LakeCounty-KenoshaCounty/Industrial-Warehouse 34 793 .13 9.59IN-Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson(26900) 52 1,165 .19 10.11IN-Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson/Industrial 36 709 .12 11.88IN-Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson/Industrial-Warehouse 35 704 .12 11.87KY-IN-Louisville/JeffersonCounty(31140) 39 807 .13 8.96KY-IN-Louisville/JeffersonCounty/Industrial 37 616 .10 11.07KY-IN-Louisville/JeffersonCounty/Industrial-Warehouse 34 584 .10 11.51MA-Boston(14454) 126 24,051 3.93 8.11

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Metropolitan Numberof EndingMarket %ofTotalNPI 1-yearReturnStatisticalArea(MSA) Properties Value($millions) MarketValue 4thQ2018MA-Boston/Apartment 24 4,119 .67 6.59MA-Boston/Office 71 18,019 2.95 8.37MA-Boston/Office-CBD 59 17,502 2.86 8.39MA-Cambridge-Newton-Framingham(15764) 100 12,145 1.99 7.10MA-Cambridge-Newton-Framingham/Apartment 39 4,049 .66 6.93MA-Cambridge-Newton-Framingham/Office 39 5,725 .94 11.01MA-Cambridge-Newton-Framingham/Office-Suburban 39 5,725 .94 11.01MD-Baltimore-Columbia-Towson(12580) 103 6,494 1.06 3.33MD-Baltimore-Columbia-Towson/Industrial 54 1,910 .31 9.43MD-Baltimore-Columbia-Towson/Industrial-Warehouse 53 1,890 .31 9.88MD-Baltimore-Columbia-Towson/Retail 21 2,319 .38 -3.66MD-SilverSpring-Frederick-Rockville(43524) 57 3,696 .60 2.99MD-SilverSpring-Frederick-Rockville/Apartment 25 2,355 .39 4.31MN-WI-Minneapolis-St.Paul-Bloomington(33460) 102 5,194 .85 4.38MN-WI-Minneapolis-St.Paul-Bloomington/Apartment 32 1,702 .28 6.18MN-WI-Minneapolis-St.Paul-Bloomington/Apartment-HighRise 21 1,010 .17 4.47MN-WI-Minneapolis-St.Paul-Bloomington/Industrial 30 324 .05 10.24MN-WI-Minneapolis-St.Paul-Bloomington/Industrial-Warehouse 24 229 .04 12.03MN-WI-Minneapolis-St.Paul-Bloomington/Retail 25 1,580 .26 2.16MO-IL-St.Louis(41180) 33 1,017 .17 5.63MO-KS-KansasCity(28140) 56 1,282 .21 4.72MO-KS-KansasCity/Industrial 40 426 .07 7.47MO-KS-KansasCity/Industrial-Warehouse 39 393 .06 7.28NC-Durham-ChapelHill(20500) 32 1,126 .18 8.40NC-Raleigh(39580) 44 2,495 .41 8.42NC-SC-Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia(16740) 107 4,534 .74 6.10NC-SC-Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia/Apartment 26 1,698 .28 7.54NC-SC-Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia/Industrial 42 466 .08 13.98NJ-Camden(15804) 44 1,620 .26 9.60NJ-Camden/Industrial 38 908 .15 18.31NJ-Camden/Industrial-Warehouse 37 881 .14 18.43NJ-PA-Newark(35084) 44 2,970 .49 2.46NV-LasVegas-Henderson-Paradise(29820) 71 7,156 1.17 5.70NV-LasVegas-Henderson-Paradise/Industrial 59 1,014 .17 14.24NV-LasVegas-Henderson-Paradise/Industrial-Warehouse 52 999 .16 14.24NV-Reno(39900) 21 988 .16 11.88NY-NassauCounty-SuffolkCounty(35004) 27 1,215 .20 6.69NY-NJ-NewYork-JerseyCity-WhitePlains(35614) 425 68,785 11.25 4.06NY-NJ-NewYork-JerseyCity-WhitePlains/Apartment 120 15,794 2.58 3.76NY-NJ-NewYork-JerseyCity-WhitePlains/Apartment-HighRise 104 15,036 2.46 3.92NY-NJ-NewYork-JerseyCity-WhitePlains/Industrial 158 6,461 1.06 18.74NY-NJ-NewYork-JerseyCity-WhitePlains/Industrial-Warehouse 149 6,429 1.05 18.85NY-NJ-NewYork-JerseyCity-WhitePlains/Office 89 39,949 6.53 3.28NY-NJ-NewYork-JerseyCity-WhitePlains/Office-CBD 72 37,454 6.12 3.14NY-NJ-NewYork-JerseyCity-WhitePlains/Retail 55 6,445 1.05 -2.93OH-KY-IN-Cincinnati(17140) 30 1,596 .26 6.83OH-KY-IN-Cincinnati/Industrial 25 570 .09 13.49OH-KY-IN-Cincinnati/Industrial-Warehouse 25 570 .09 13.49OR-WA-Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro(38900) 173 8,153 1.33 7.78OR-WA-Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro/Apartment 31 2,501 .41 3.78OR-WA-Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro/Industrial 102 1,788 .29 18.06OR-WA-Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro/Industrial-FlexSpace 24 206 .03 10.18OR-WA-Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro/Industrial-Warehouse 63 1,382 .23 17.79OR-WA-Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro/Office 23 2,385 .39 8.18PA-Harrisburg-Carlisle(25420) 25 1,276 .21 8.05PA-MontgomeryCounty-BucksCounty-ChesterCounty(33874) 40 2,199 .36 4.04PA-Philadelphia(37964) 41 2,145 .35 4.20RI-MA-Providence-Warwick(39300) 23 756 .12 9.32TN-MS-AR-Memphis(32820) 24 812 .13 10.63TN-Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin(34980) 77 3,114 .51 10.98TN-Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin/Industrial 31 696 .11 15.73TN-Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin/Industrial-Wareh 31 696 .11 15.73TX-Austin-RoundRock(12420) 201 11,267 1.84 9.03TX-Austin-RoundRock/Apartment 68 4,621 .76 6.79TX-Austin-RoundRock/Apartment-Garden 30 1,586 .26 7.16TX-Austin-RoundRock/Industrial 57 785 .13 13.32TX-Austin-RoundRock/Industrial-Warehouse 52 652 .11 13.95TX-Austin-RoundRock/Office 51 4,434 .73 11.18TX-Austin-RoundRock/Office-Suburban 38 1,727 .28 8.24TX-Austin-RoundRock/Retail 25 1,425 .23 5.99TX-Dallas-Plano-Irving(19124) 375 24,172 3.95 7.08TX-Dallas-Plano-Irving/Apartment 98 7,923 1.30 4.70TX-Dallas-Plano-Irving/Apartment-Garden 35 2,051 .34 5.86TX-Dallas-Plano-Irving/Apartment-HighRise 43 3,314 .54 2.46TX-Dallas-Plano-Irving/Industrial 187 5,050 .83 12.49TX-Dallas-Plano-Irving/Industrial-Warehouse 181 4,925 .81 12.62TX-Dallas-Plano-Irving/Office 50 5,457 .89 9.45TX-Dallas-Plano-Irving/Office-Suburban 42 3,514 .57 8.65TX-Dallas-Plano-Irving/Retail 37 5,554 .91 3.53TX-FortWorth-Arlington(23104) 91 3,441 .56 9.97TX-FortWorth-Arlington/Industrial 73 2,406 .39 11.09TX-FortWorth-Arlington/Industrial-Warehouse 55 2,238 .37 11.09TX-Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand(26420) 284 22,035 3.60 4.09TX-Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand/Apartment 85 5,306 .87 7.60TX-Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand/Apartment-Garden 31 1,503 .25 9.75TX-Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand/Apartment-HighRise 45 3,292 .54 6.60TX-Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand/Industrial 115 2,598 .42 11.42TX-Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand/Industrial-Warehouse 106 2,489 .41 11.50TX-Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand/Office 47 6,851 1.12 5.14TX-Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand/Office-Suburban 39 4,308 .70 5.14TX-Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand/Retail 37 7,278 1.19 -1.48TX-SanAntonio-NewBraunfels(41700) 43 925 .15 9.43TX-SanAntonio-NewBraunfels/Industrial 27 243 .04 13.02TX-SanAntonio-NewBraunfels/Industrial-Warehouse 24 171 .03 15.17WA-Seattle-Bellevue-Everett(42644) 347 25,551 4.18 9.35WA-Seattle-Bellevue-Everett/Apartment 79 7,031 1.15 5.53WA-Seattle-Bellevue-Everett/Apartment-Garden 21 1,401 .23 9.52WA-Seattle-Bellevue-Everett/Apartment-HighRise 46 4,601 .75 4.49WA-Seattle-Bellevue-Everett/Industrial 152 4,188 .68 18.42WA-Seattle-Bellevue-Everett/Industrial-Warehouse 140 3,730 .61 18.68WA-Seattle-Bellevue-Everett/Office 79 11,683 1.91 10.55WA-Seattle-Bellevue-Everett/Office-CBD 43 8,675 1.42 11.86WA-Seattle-Bellevue-Everett/Office-Suburban 36 3,007 .49 7.18WA-Seattle-Bellevue-Everett/Retail 36 2,618 .43 .88WA-Tacoma-Lakewood(45104) 44 2,671 .44 15.65WA-Tacoma-Lakewood/Industrial 42 2,590 .42 15.98WA-Tacoma-Lakewood/Industrial-Warehouse 42 2,590 .42 15.98

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T H E N C R E I F P R O P E R T Y I N D E XM E T H O D O L O G Y

n This Index is set at 100 for the fourth quarter of 1977. Calculations are based on quarterly returns of individual properties before deduction of portfolio-level management fees.

n Each property’s return is weighted by its market value.n Income and Capital Appreciation changes are also calculated.

U N I V E R S E O F P R O P E R T I E S

n All properties have been acquired on behalf of tax exempt institutions and held in a fiduciary environment.

U N I V E R S E I N C L U D E S

– Wholly owned and joint venture investments. – Existing properties only—no development projects. – Only investment-grade, non-agricultural, income-producing properties: apartments, hotels,

office, retail, office showroom/R&D and warehouses.n The database increases quarterly as participants acquire properties and as new members join NCREIF.n Sold properties are included as partial sales from the Index in the quarter the sales take place (historical data remains).n Each property’s market value is determined by real estate appraisal methodology, consistently applied.n All Data Contributing Members of NCREIF must submit all of their properties held in the U.S., including taxable properties

and “alternative” property types, but only qualififying properties actually enter the NPI.”

R a t e s o f R e t u R n

n Total Return: includes appreciation (or depreciation), realized capital gain (or loss) and income. It is computed by adding the Income return and Capital Appreciation return on a quarterly basis.

n Income Return:measures the portion of total return attributable to each property’s net operating income or NOI. It is computed by dividing NOI by the average quarterly investment for the quarter.

NOI

Beginning Market Value + 1/2 Capital Improvements - 1/2 Partial Sales - 1/3 NOI

n Capital Appreciation Return: measures the change in market value adjusted for any capital improvements or partial sales for the quarter.

(Ending Market Value - Beginning Market Value) + Partial Sales - Capital Improvements

Beginning Market Value + 1/2 Capital Improvements - 1/2 Partial Sales - 1/3 NOI

n Annual and Annualized Returns: are computed by chain linking quarterly rates of return to calculate time-weighted rates of return for the annual and annualized periods under study. For periods over one year, returns are expressed on a return-per-year basis.

n Quartile Ranges: the distribution of annual total returns by property is characterized by calculating quartiles and percentiles. The lower quartile break is the property return in the Index such that one-fourth of the properties in the Index are below it; the upper quartile break is the return in the Index such that three-fourths of the property returns in the Index are below it.

The quartile range line graphs show the range of annual returns over rolling quarters for each property type. These graphs allow for quick comparison of the range of returns across time and by property type.

n Mean and Median Returns: the median is the exact midpoint of the distribution whereby one-half of the properties have a better return and the other half a poorer return. The mean is the equal-weighted average and is determined by summing the one-year returns and dividing by the number of properties in the Index.

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THE NCREIF PROPERTY INDEX REGIONAL AND DIVISIONAL SUBINDEXES

PROPERTIES BY REGION MARKET VALUE BY REGION ($ millions)

MARKET VALUE BY TYPE ($ millions)PROPERTIES BY TYPE

East 1,866 23.67%

Midwest 946 12.00%

South 2,135 27.08%

Retail 1,231 15.62%

Apartment 1,721 21.83%

Hotel 77 0.98%

Office 1,454 18.44%

Industrial 3,400 43.13%

Apartment$154,145 25.20%

Office$214,580 35.08%

Hotel$2,989 0.49%

Industrial$100,806 16.48%

Retail$139,132 22.75%

East$195,646 31.99%

Midwest$51,933 8.49%

South$122,563 20.04%

West$241,511 39.48%

West 2,936 37.24%

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THE NCREIF PROPERTY INDEX

D I S T R I B U T I O N O F P R O P E R T I E S B Y S T A T E , D I V I S I O N A N D R E G I O N

*Asterisksrepresentdatathatdoesnotmeettheexistingmaskingcriteria

nTotal Index: 7,883 properties, $611,655.05 million

E a s t : 1 , 8 6 6 p r o p e r t i e s , $ 1 9 5 , 6 4 6 . 3 1 m i l l i o n

MIDEAST STATE COUNT VALUE($M) NORTHEAST STATE COUNT VALUE($M)Delaware * * Connecticut 37 2876.53Kentucky 53 1165.67 Maine * *Maryland 212 12364.30 Massachusetts 256 37150.86NorthCarolina 193 8928.98 NewHampshire 6 680.47SouthCarolina 45 1564.20 NewJersey 297 19811.91Virginia 238 22784.87 NewYork 265 56481.05WashingtonDC 115 21900.94 Pennsylvania 142 7589.99WestVirginia * * RhodeIsland 4 277.33

Vermont * *

TotalMideast 859 $70,778.14 TotalNortheast 1,007 $124,868.16

We s t : 2 , 9 3 6 p r o p e r t i e s , $ 2 4 1 , 5 1 1 . 6 3 m i l l i o n

MOUNTAIN STATE COUNT VALUE($M) PACIFIC STATE COUNT VALUE($M)Arizona 179 9920.06 Alaska 6 315.95Colorado 279 19893.13 California 1,755 157557.20Idaho * * Hawaii 12 7352.05Montana * * Oregon 180 8318.48Nevada 94 8168.51 Washington 403 28585.05NewMexico * *Utah 23 1282.27Wyoming * *

TotalMountain 580 $39,382.91 TotalPacific 2,356 $202,128.73

M i d w e s t : 9 4 6 p r o p e r t i e s , $ 5 1 , 9 3 3 . 1 1 m i l l i o n

E.N. CENTRAL STATE COUNT VALUE($M) W.N. CENTRAL STATE COUNT VALUE($M)Illinois 566 38828.91 Iowa * *Indiana 74 1556.46 Kansas 48 779.20Michigan 31 1046.39 Minnesota 102 5194.66Ohio 50 2259.17 Missouri 42 1321.58Wisconsin 26 720.91 Nebraska 4 76.30

NorthDakota * *SouthDakota * *

TotalEastNorthCentral 747 $44,411.86 TotalWestNorthCentral 199 $7,521.25

S o u t h : 2 , 1 3 5 p r o p e r t i e s , $ 1 2 2 , 5 6 3 . 9 9 m i l l i o n

SOUTHEAST STATE COUNT VALUE($M) SOUTHWEST STATE COUNT VALUE($M)Alabama 11 986.59 Arkansas 4 203.20Florida 567 36154.87 Louisiana 8 120.06Georgia 406 17152.31 Oklahoma 8 151.77Mississippi 18 408.60 Texas 1,010 62883.98Tennessee 103 4502.62

TotalSoutheast 1,105 $59,204.99 TotalSouthwest 1,030 $63,359.01

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THE NCREIF PROPERTY INDEX

ANNUALIZED RETURNS BY PROPERTY TYPE

APARTMENT HOTEL INDUSTRIAL OFFICE RETAIL

Period TOT INC APP TOT INC APP TOT INC APP TOT INC APP TOT INC APP

1Year 6.07 4.28 1.73 7.57 8.43 -0.80 14.30 4.88 9.09 6.85 4.49 2.28 2.18 4.66 -2.403Years 6.52 4.43 2.02 5.73 8.14 -2.27 13.22 5.08 7.85 6.36 4.55 1.75 5.59 4.74 0.835Years 8.34 4.59 3.62 8.24 8.15 0.09 13.59 5.30 7.97 8.58 4.73 3.72 8.95 4.99 3.8210Years 7.52 5.02 2.40 5.32 7.37 -1.92 9.24 5.95 3.15 6.44 5.40 1.00 8.24 5.73 2.4115Years 8.38 5.10 3.16 7.39 7.50 -0.08 9.93 6.23 3.53 8.34 5.69 2.54 9.71 5.98 3.5820Years 8.87 5.72 3.02 7.02 7.92 -0.83 9.93 6.87 2.91 8.28 6.38 1.81 10.01 6.62 3.23Inception 8.78 6.73 1.95 8.19 8.20 0.01 9.87 7.67 2.08 8.41 7.11 1.23 9.54 7.19 2.23

ANNUALIZED RETURNS BY REGION

EAST MIDWEST SOUTH WEST

Period TOT INC APP TOT INC APP TOT INC APP TOT INC APP

1Year 4.95 4.35 0.58 4.34 4.80 -0.45 6.71 4.98 1.68 8.76 4.47 4.153Years 5.48 4.41 1.04 5.63 5.04 0.57 7.00 5.12 1.81 9.22 4.57 4.495Years 7.38 4.61 2.68 8.05 5.28 2.67 9.58 5.35 4.07 11.26 4.76 6.2910Years 6.37 5.24 1.08 6.73 5.90 0.79 7.88 5.88 1.91 8.50 5.37 3.0015Years 8.25 5.54 2.61 7.48 6.14 1.28 8.87 6.06 2.70 9.89 5.60 4.1220Years 8.83 6.29 2.44 7.47 6.73 0.70 8.54 6.64 1.81 9.97 6.26 3.55Inception 9.94 7.25 2.56 8.01 7.40 0.58 8.31 7.26 0.99 9.79 7.08 2.58

ANNUALIZED RETURNS BY DIVISION

NORTHEAST MIDEAST EAST NORTH CENTRAL WEST NORTH CENTRAL

Period TOT INC APP TOT INC APP TOT INC APP TOT INC APP

1Year 5.12 4.10 0.99 4.66 4.81 -0.15 4.35 4.67 -0.31 4.28 5.56 -1.233Years 5.60 4.16 1.40 5.26 4.86 0.39 5.84 4.92 0.88 4.51 5.70 -1.145Years 8.01 4.39 3.51 6.38 5.01 1.32 8.38 5.13 3.13 6.38 6.03 0.3410Years 6.42 5.06 1.30 6.31 5.54 0.73 7.03 5.79 1.18 5.30 6.44 -1.0815Years 8.14 5.38 2.66 8.42 5.80 2.51 7.68 6.06 1.56 6.55 6.56 -0.0120Years 8.60 6.11 2.38 9.16 6.55 2.49 7.62 6.62 0.95 6.76 7.18 -0.41Inception 9.63 7.00 2.50 9.44 7.38 1.96 8.20 7.30 0.85 7.32 7.72 -0.38

ANNUALIZED RETURNS: INDEX AND ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

INDEX ALTERNATIVE

Period TOT INC APP CPI S&P LB G/C T-BILLS NAREIT

1Year 6.72 4.56 2.08 1.91 -4.38 1.81 -4.393Years 7.21 4.67 2.46 2.03 9.26 1.23 4.125Years 9.33 4.88 4.30 1.51 8.49 0.86 8.2410Years 7.49 5.48 1.92 1.79 13.12 0.48 12.4915Years 8.87 5.73 3.01 2.08 7.77 1.34 8.4920Years 8.98 6.39 2.47 2.15 5.62 1.88 9.92Inception 9.17 7.19 1.87 3.47 11.37 4.66 12.07

SOUTHEAST SOUTHWEST PACIFIC MOUNTAIN

Period TOT INC APP TOT INC APP TOT INC APP TOT INC APP

1Year 7.20 5.06 2.06 6.27 4.90 1.32 9.31 4.40 4.75 6.05 4.83 1.183Years 7.88 5.23 2.55 6.22 5.03 1.15 9.50 4.49 4.84 7.85 4.98 2.765Years 10.41 5.45 4.78 8.84 5.26 3.45 11.38 4.66 6.49 10.72 5.25 5.2710Years 7.70 5.98 1.65 8.16 5.77 2.28 8.57 5.29 3.15 8.15 5.80 2.2515Years 8.79 6.07 2.60 9.07 6.06 2.87 10.02 5.53 4.31 9.28 5.97 3.1820Years 8.51 6.63 1.78 8.65 6.66 1.89 10.21 6.20 3.83 9.07 6.55 2.40Inception 9.04 7.36 1.59 7.65 7.19 0.43 10.20 7.07 2.97 8.62 7.18 1.36

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Distribution of One Year Total Returns: Rolling by QuarterT O T A L I N D E X a n d P R O P E R T Y T Y P E S

R O L L I N G O N E Y E A R T O T A L R E T U R N Quartile Breakpoints Numberof YrEnded: 5th Lower Upper 95th Mean Standard Properties Yr:Qtr Percentile Break Median Break Percentile Return Deviation

T O T A L I N D E X

6,128 20152 -2.12 7.18 11.94 17.96 31.59 13.11 12.456,097 20153 -1.95 7.57 12.41 18.81 32.44 13.56 12.416,029 20154 -1.69 7.51 12.40 18.35 32.50 13.49 12.436,054 20161 -2.14 6.97 11.88 17.37 29.74 12.65 10.876,060 20162 -2.57 6.38 10.92 16.35 28.13 11.76 10.816,316 20163 -4.21 5.76 9.82 14.81 26.47 10.37 10.276,442 20164 -4.65 5.01 8.87 13.52 23.68 9.36 10.066,350 20171 -4.93 4.72 8.46 12.85 24.05 9.04 10.466,409 20172 -4.86 4.52 8.16 12.81 24.82 8.92 10.096,416 20173 -4.17 4.49 7.96 12.54 25.72 9.04 10.256,433 20174 -3.53 4.45 7.89 12.54 24.97 8.92 9.446,434 20181 -3.87 4.50 8.00 12.94 25.50 9.19 9.716,481 20182 -3.46 4.66 8.14 13.27 26.18 9.50 10.176,848 20183 -3.44 4.89 8.46 13.77 25.35 9.67 10.256,897 20184 -4.09 4.79 8.56 13.88 25.59 9.58 10.20

A P A R T M E N T I N D E X

1,272 20152 0.61 6.64 10.73 16.02 27.45 11.99 8.971,284 20153 0.72 6.81 11.30 17.07 27.67 12.44 9.401,294 20154 0.36 6.83 11.66 16.68 27.84 12.42 8.961,312 20161 -0.66 5.89 10.73 15.55 25.51 11.32 8.891,319 20162 -1.84 5.52 9.37 14.36 23.79 10.17 8.581,309 20163 -2.82 4.98 8.54 12.67 21.15 8.91 8.031,313 20164 -4.56 3.92 7.39 11.41 17.69 7.28 7.121,373 20171 -4.41 3.64 6.94 10.84 17.77 7.03 7.031,403 20172 -4.45 3.44 6.66 10.67 18.15 6.99 7.011,370 20173 -2.83 3.37 6.41 9.93 17.40 6.75 6.401,372 20174 -1.96 3.43 6.12 9.31 15.53 6.46 5.671,364 20181 -1.42 3.73 6.11 9.37 15.34 6.61 5.531,370 20182 -1.06 3.80 6.09 9.45 16.00 6.64 5.441,361 20183 -1.94 3.56 6.03 9.30 15.72 6.59 6.711,359 20184 -2.17 3.53 5.93 9.10 15.38 6.29 5.96

H O T E L I N D E X

113 20152 -7.17 7.10 13.57 20.89 35.64 14.82 13.86116 20153 -9.79 6.88 12.02 18.24 33.40 13.04 12.59110 20154 -2.69 6.05 11.12 16.89 26.98 11.70 10.57109 20161 -5.09 6.01 10.85 16.01 26.07 11.60 10.51110 20162 -7.66 4.82 11.31 16.44 28.86 11.24 11.11107 20163 -15.12 3.58 10.70 16.35 26.45 9.82 11.59101 20164 -11.91 2.61 9.44 14.24 25.28 8.64 10.83104 20171 -12.03 2.81 9.51 13.55 22.86 7.46 10.65100 20172 -8.42 2.00 7.95 11.52 21.12 7.17 9.09

99 20173 -11.11 1.37 6.27 10.92 17.82 5.46 8.5098 20174 -15.35 0.73 5.99 9.77 17.45 4.96 8.8383 20181 -12.67 2.40 7.40 11.45 18.71 5.99 9.2777 20182 -12.07 1.68 7.92 10.53 18.45 5.91 9.0976 20183 -15.38 3.66 7.39 10.89 20.12 6.79 9.0575 20184 -17.26 1.72 6.32 10.07 16.44 5.74 8.61

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R O L L I N G O N E Y E A R T O T A L R E T U R N Quartile Breakpoints Numberof YrEnded: 5th Lower Upper 95th Mean Standard Properties Yr:Qtr Percentile Break Median Break Percentile Return Deviation

I N D U S T R I A L I N D E X

2,536 20152 0.28 8.64 13.49 19.77 34.33 15.00 11.892,514 20153 -0.01 9.09 14.38 20.69 34.58 15.52 11.682,495 20154 -0.62 8.49 13.68 20.13 35.14 14.99 12.022,469 20161 -1.43 8.55 13.54 19.08 32.81 14.41 11.232,461 20162 -0.93 8.14 12.65 18.68 31.73 13.83 11.142,731 20163 -2.71 7.24 11.16 16.85 28.59 12.16 10.692,805 20164 -2.62 6.74 10.88 15.81 27.89 11.76 11.122,623 20171 -1.93 6.78 10.76 15.59 28.02 11.85 10.932,645 20172 -1.97 6.73 10.79 16.43 29.16 12.07 10.652,694 20173 -1.70 6.92 10.89 16.66 31.30 12.65 11.442,677 20174 -0.97 7.01 11.21 17.07 30.11 12.65 10.302,708 20181 -0.87 7.26 11.63 18.09 31.95 13.16 10.662,751 20182 -0.04 7.64 12.06 18.68 32.14 13.69 10.713,079 20183 0.89 8.07 12.48 18.36 29.51 13.69 10.383,132 20184 1.55 8.55 12.82 18.45 29.91 14.01 10.38

O F F I C E I N D E X

1,199 20152 -9.97 4.90 10.45 16.57 29.65 10.64 15.071,193 20153 -9.18 5.74 10.57 16.48 29.51 11.15 16.051,142 20154 -8.27 5.92 10.60 16.15 29.78 11.34 16.191,144 20161 -6.35 5.66 10.27 15.65 27.25 10.53 11.431,155 20162 -5.89 4.96 9.03 14.25 26.08 9.76 11.751,139 20163 -8.16 3.32 7.98 12.65 23.63 8.15 11.611,188 20164 -9.36 3.04 7.20 11.37 19.82 6.86 9.981,186 20171 -8.58 2.74 6.59 10.21 18.41 6.49 11.191,186 20172 -7.99 2.39 6.21 9.88 19.87 6.19 10.911,196 20173 -8.32 2.36 6.19 9.81 20.17 6.06 9.551,212 20174 -7.99 2.94 6.38 9.84 18.09 6.34 9.121,200 20181 -6.92 2.89 6.48 10.10 18.05 6.46 8.881,194 20182 -6.91 3.14 6.81 10.50 19.03 6.80 9.221,244 20183 -6.20 3.39 6.80 10.75 20.10 7.03 9.061,236 20184 -6.45 3.08 6.84 10.49 19.96 6.92 9.13

R E T A I L I N D E X

1,006 20152 -2.24 7.11 11.51 16.72 29.03 12.50 13.24988 20153 -1.76 7.65 11.98 17.62 31.08 12.99 11.86981 20154 -0.68 7.99 12.57 18.63 33.60 13.88 12.04

1,010 20161 -1.11 7.16 11.68 16.93 28.61 12.66 11.031,009 20162 -1.67 6.43 10.62 15.51 25.43 11.23 10.571,025 20163 -3.32 6.02 9.25 14.20 25.61 10.06 9.041,027 20164 -4.23 5.26 8.19 12.02 19.24 8.45 8.601,053 20171 -6.24 4.86 7.65 10.89 18.77 7.71 10.481,067 20172 -7.49 4.55 7.06 10.14 17.22 6.87 9.191,052 20173 -6.06 3.93 6.57 9.37 15.70 6.44 9.111,072 20174 -7.29 3.57 6.51 9.14 16.22 6.04 8.231,076 20181 -6.29 3.10 6.13 8.71 15.01 5.78 8.701,077 20182 -6.34 2.66 5.99 8.58 15.10 5.70 10.641,082 20183 -8.79 2.26 5.93 8.64 14.93 5.31 10.721,092 20184 -12.63 1.02 5.42 8.22 14.42 4.21 9.75

Page 25: 40 Year Commemorative Edition - NCREIF · 40 Years NPI 1978-2018 200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135 CHICAGO, IL 60601 312-819-5890 NCREIF National Council of Real Es tate Investment Fiduciaries

24

ST

AT

IS

TI

CA

L A

PP

EN

DI

X •

MO

UN

TA

IN

CH

AR

T O

F T

HE

OV

ER

AL

L N

PI

TO

TA

LS

S T A T I S T I C A L A P P E N D I X MOUNTAIN CHART OF THE OVERALL NPI TOTALS

The

num

bers

con

tain

ed in

the

mou

ntai

n ch

art a

bove

are

tota

l ann

ualiz

ed re

turn

figu

res f

or a

ll pr

oper

ties i

n th

e N

CRE

IF P

rope

rty In

dex

(NPI

) as o

f the

four

th q

uarte

r of e

ach

resp

ectiv

e ca

lend

ar y

ear.

The

char

t is i

nter

pret

ed th

e sa

me

way

as a

city

-to-c

ity m

ileag

e ta

ble.

For

exa

mpl

e, to

de

term

ine

the

tota

l ann

ualiz

ed re

turn

for t

he N

PI fr

om 1

978

thro

ugh

1987

, sim

ply

follo

w th

e fir

st c

olum

n of

num

bers

dow

n to

the

tent

h ro

w. T

he re

sulti

ng fi

gure

repr

esen

ts th

e re

turn

an

inve

stor

wou

ld h

ave

achi

eved

if h

e w

as h

oldi

ng a

por

tfolio

rep

rese

ntat

ive

of th

e N

CRE

IF “

bas-

ket o

f pro

perti

es”

for 1

0 ye

ars b

egin

ning

in th

e in

cept

ion

year

of t

he N

PI.

The

figu

res

illus

trat

ed in

the

mou

ntai

n ch

art b

elow

are

the

tota

l com

poun

ded

retu

rn fi

gure

s fo

r al

l pro

pert

ies

in th

e N

PI. U

sing

the

sam

e ex

ampl

e as

abo

ve, d

eter

min

ing

the

tota

l co

mpo

unde

d re

turn

for

the

NPI

from

197

8 th

roug

h 19

87 s

impl

y re

quir

es fo

llow

ing

the

first

col

umn

of n

umbe

rs d

own

to th

e te

nth

row.

All

retu

rns

are

com

poun

ded

quar

terl

y an

d ar

e no

min

al (

not a

djus

ted

for

infla

tion)

.

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

1978

16.1

1979

18.3

20.5

1980

18.2

19.3

18.1

1981

17.8

18.4

17.3

16.6

1982

16.1

16.1

14.6

13.0

9.4

1983

15.6

15.5

14.3

13.0

11.3

13.1

1984

15.3

15.2

14.2

13.2

12.1

13.5

13.8

1985

14.8

14.6

13.7

12.8

11.9

12.7

12.5

11.2

1986

14.1

13.8

12.9

12.1

11.2

11.6

11.1

9.8

8.3

1987

13.4

13.2

12.3

11.5

10.6

10.9

10.3

9.2

8.1

8.0

1988

13.1

12.8

12.0

11.2

10.5

10.7

10.2

9.3

8.6

8.8

9.6

1989

12.6

12.3

11.5

10.8

10.1

10.2

9.8

9.0

8.4

8.5

8.7

7.8

1990

11.8

11.5

10.7

10.0

9.2

9.2

8.7

7.8

7.2

6.9

6.5

5.0

2.3

1991

10.5

10.0

9.2

8.4

7.7

7.5

6.8

5.8

4.9

4.3

3.4

1.3

-1.7

-5.6

1992

9.4

9.0

8.1

7.3

6.5

6.2

5.5

4.5

3.6

2.8

1.8

-0.1

-2.6

-4.9

-4.3

1993

8.9

8.4

7.6

6.9

6.1

5.8

5.1

4.1

3.3

2.6

1.7

0.2

-1.6

-2.9

-1.5

1.4

1994

8.7

8.3

7.5

6.8

6.1

5.8

5.2

4.4

3.6

3.1

2.4

1.2

-0.1

-0.6

1.1

3.9

6.4

1995

8.7

8.3

7.5

6.9

6.2

6.0

5.4

4.6

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.1

1.2

0.9

2.7

5.1

7.0

7.5

1996

8.8

8.4

7.7

7.1

6.5

6.3

5.8

5.1

4.6

4.2

3.8

3.1

2.4

2.4

4.1

6.4

8.1

8.9

10.3

1997

9.0

8.7

8.0

7.5

6.9

6.8

6.3

5.8

5.3

5.0

4.8

4.2

3.8

4.0

5.7

7.8

9.5

10.5

12.1

13.9

1998

9.3

9.0

8.5

7.9

7.4

7.3

7.0

6.5

6.1

5.9

5.8

5.4

5.1

5.5

7.2

9.2

10.8

11.9

13.5

15.1

16.2

1999

9.4

9.1

8.6

8.1

7.7

7.6

7.2

6.8

6.5

6.3

6.2

5.9

5.7

6.1

7.7

9.5

10.9

11.8

12.9

13.8

13.8

11.4

2000

9.6

9.3

8.8

8.3

7.9

7.8

7.5

7.1

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.4

6.3

6.7

8.2

9.8

11.1

11.9

12.8

13.4

13.3

11.8

12.3

2001

9.5

9.2

8.7

8.3

7.9

7.8

7.5

7.1

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.5

6.4

6.8

8.1

9.5

10.6

11.2

11.9

12.2

11.7

10.3

9.7

7.3

2002

9.4

9.1

8.6

8.2

7.8

7.7

7.5

7.1

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.5

6.4

6.8

8.0

9.3

10.2

10.7

11.1

11.2

10.7

9.4

8.7

7.0

6.7

2003

9.3

9.1

8.6

8.2

7.9

7.8

7.5

7.2

7.0

6.9

6.9

6.7

6.6

6.9

8.0

9.2

10.1

10.5

10.8

10.9

10.4

9.3

8.8

7.7

7.9

9.0

2004

9.5

9.3

8.9

8.5

8.1

8.1

7.9

7.6

7.4

7.3

7.3

7.1

7.1

7.5

8.5

9.7

10.5

10.9

11.2

11.4

11.0

10.2

9.9

9.3

10.0

11.7

14.5

2005

9.9

9.7

9.3

8.9

8.6

8.6

8.4

8.1

8.0

8.0

8.0

7.9

7.9

8.2

9.3

10.4

11.2

11.7

12.1

12.3

12.1

11.5

11.5

11.4

12.5

14.4

17.2

20.1

2006

10.1

9.9

9.5

9.2

8.9

8.9

8.7

8.5

8.4

8.4

8.4

8.3

8.4

8.8

9.8

10.9

11.6

12.1

12.5

12.7

12.6

12.1

12.3

12.3

13.3

15.0

17.0

18.3

16.6

2007

10.3

10.1

9.8

9.5

9.2

9.2

9.0

8.8

8.7

8.7

8.8

8.7

8.8

9.2

10.2

11.2

11.9

12.4

12.8

13.0

12.9

12.5

12.7

12.8

13.7

15.1

16.7

17.5

16.2

15.8

2008

9.7

9.5

9.1

8.8

8.6

8.5

8.4

8.1

8.0

8.0

8.0

7.9

7.9

8.2

9.1

10.0

10.6

10.9

11.2

11.2

11.0

10.5

10.4

10.2

10.6

11.2

11.7

11.0

8.1

4.1

-6.5

2009

8.8

8.5

8.2

7.8

7.5

7.5

7.3

7.0

6.8

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.7

7.5

8.2

8.6

8.8

8.9

8.8

8.4

7.7

7.3

6.8

6.7

6.7

6.3

4.8

1.2

-3.4

-11.

8-1

6.8

2010

8.9

8.7

8.3

8.0

7.7

7.7

7.5

7.2

7.1

7.0

7.0

6.9

6.8

7.0

7.8

8.5

8.9

9.1

9.2

9.1

8.7

8.1

7.8

7.4

7.4

7.5

7.3

6.1

3.5

0.5

-4.2

-3.0

13.1

2011

9.1

8.8

8.5

8.2

7.9

7.9

7.7

7.5

7.3

7.3

7.3

7.2

7.1

7.4

8.1

8.8

9.2

9.4

9.5

9.4

9.1

8.6

8.3

8.0

8.1

8.2

8.1

7.2

5.2

3.1

0.1

2.4

13.7

14.3

2012

9.1

8.9

8.6

8.3

8.0

8.0

7.8

7.6

7.5

7.4

7.4

7.3

7.3

7.5

8.2

8.9

9.3

9.4

9.5

9.5

9.2

8.7

8.5

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.4

7.6

6.0

4.3

2.1

4.4

12.6

12.4

10.5

2013

9.1

9.0

8.6

8.4

8.1

8.1

7.9

7.7

7.6

7.6

7.5

7.5

7.4

7.7

8.3

9.0

9.3

9.5

9.6

9.6

9.3

8.9

8.7

8.4

8.5

8.7

8.6

8.0

6.6

5.2

3.6

5.7

12.2

11.9

10.8

11.0

2014

9.2

9.0

8.7

8.5

8.2

8.2

8.0

7.8

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.6

7.6

7.8

8.5

9.1

9.5

9.6

9.7

9.7

9.5

9.0

8.9

8.7

8.8

8.9

8.9

8.4

7.2

6.0

4.7

6.7

12.1

11.9

11.1

11.4

11.8

2015

9.3

9.1

8.8

8.6

8.4

8.3

8.2

8.0

7.9

7.9

7.9

7.8

7.8

8.1

8.7

9.3

9.6

9.8

9.9

9.9

9.7

9.3

9.2

9.0

9.1

9.3

9.3

8.8

7.8

6.8

5.7

7.6

12.3

12.2

11.7

12.0

12.6

13.3

2016

9.3

9.1

8.8

8.6

8.4

8.3

8.2

8.0

7.9

7.9

7.9

7.8

7.8

8.0

8.6

9.2

9.6

9.7

9.8

9.8

9.6

9.2

9.1

8.9

9.0

9.2

9.2

8.8

7.8

6.9

6.0

7.7

11.7

11.5

10.9

11.0

11.0

10.6

8.0

2017

9.2

9.1

8.8

8.5

8.3

8.3

8.1

8.0

7.9

7.9

7.9

7.8

7.8

8.0

8.6

9.1

9.5

9.6

9.7

9.7

9.4

9.1

9.0

8.8

8.9

9.0

9.0

8.6

7.7

6.9

6.1

7.6

11.1

10.8

10.2

10.2

10.0

9.4

7.5

7.0

2018

9.2

9.0

8.7

8.5

8.3

8.2

8.1

7.9

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.8

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.3

9.5

9.6

9.5

9.3

9.0

8.9

8.7

8.7

8.9

8.9

8.5

7.6

6.9

6.1

7.5

10.6

10.3

9.7

9.6

9.3

8.7

7.2

6.8

6.7

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

1978

16.1

1979

39.9

20.5

1980

65.2

42.2

18.1

1981

92.6

65.9

37.7

16.6

1982

110.

881

.550

.727

.69.

419

8313

8.4

105.

470

.544

.423

.813

.119

8417

1.4

133.

894

.164

.440

.928

.813

.819

8520

1.9

160.

011

5.9

82.8

56.8

43.2

26.6

11.2

1986

227.

018

1.6

133.

898

.069

.855

.137

.120

.58.

319

8725

3.1

204.

115

2.5

113.

883

.367

.548

.130

.117

.08.

019

8828

7.2

233.

417

6.8

134.

410

1.0

83.7

62.4

42.6

28.2

18.4

9.6

1989

317.

225

9.3

198.

315

2.6

116.

697

.975

.053

.738

.227

.618

.17.

819

9032

6.8

267.

620

5.1

158.

412

1.6

102.

579

.057

.241

.330

.520

.810

.22.

319

9130

2.9

247.

018

8.0

144.

010

9.2

91.1

69.0

48.4

33.4

23.2

14.1

4.1

-3.4

-5.6

1992

285.

723

2.2

175.

813

3.6

100.

383

.061

.842

.127

.818

.09.

2-0

.4-7

.5-9

.6-4

.319

9329

1.1

236.

817

9.6

136.

810

3.0

85.5

64.0

44.1

29.5

19.6

10.7

1.0

-6.3

-8.4

-2.9

1.4

1994

316.

025

8.3

197.

415

1.9

116.

097

.474

.553

.337

.827

.217

.87.

5-0

.3-2

.53.

37.

96.

419

9534

7.4

285.

321

9.8

170.

913

2.3

112.

287

.664

.848

.236

.826

.715

.57.

24.

811

.016

.014

.47.

519

9639

3.4

325.

025

2.8

198.

815

6.2

134.

110

6.9

81.8

63.4

50.9

39.7

27.5

18.3

15.6

22.5

27.9

26.2

18.6

10.3

1997

462.

038

4.0

301.

824

0.3

191.

816

6.6

135.

710

7.1

86.1

71.9

59.2

45.2

34.7

31.7

39.5

45.7

43.7

35.1

25.6

13.9

1998

553.

446

2.7

367.

129

5.6

239.

221

0.0

174.

014

0.7

116.

499

.885

.068

.856

.653

.162

.269

.467

.157

.146

.132

.416

.219

9962

7.6

526.

642

0.2

340.

627

7.8

245.

220

5.1

168.

114

1.0

122.

510

6.0

87.9

74.4

70.5

80.6

88.6

86.1

74.9

62.7

47.5

29.5

11.4

2000

716.

860

3.4

483.

939

4.6

324.

028

7.5

242.

520

0.9

170.

514

9.8

131.

311

1.0

95.8

91.4

102.

711

1.7

108.

996

.382

.665

.545

.325

.012

.320

0177

6.2

654.

652

6.4

430.

635

4.9

315.

726

7.5

222.

819

0.2

168.

014

8.1

126.

311

0.0

105.

311

7.5

127.

212

4.1

110.

695

.977

.655

.934

.120

.47.

320

0283

5.3

705.

556

8.7

466.

438

5.6

343.

729

2.3

244.

620

9.8

186.

016

4.9

141.

612

4.2

119.

213

2.2

142.

513

9.2

124.

810

9.1

89.6

66.4

43.2

28.5

14.5

6.7

2003

919.

577

8.0

628.

951

7.3

429.

338

3.7

327.

527

5.6

237.

721

1.8

188.

716

3.3

144.

413

8.9

153.

016

4.3

160.

714

5.1

127.

910

6.6

81.4

56.0

40.1

24.8

16.3

9.0

2004

1067

.290

5.2

734.

560

6.7

506.

045

3.7

389.

533

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Page 26: 40 Year Commemorative Edition - NCREIF · 40 Years NPI 1978-2018 200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135 CHICAGO, IL 60601 312-819-5890 NCREIF National Council of Real Es tate Investment Fiduciaries

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THE NCREIF PROPERTY INDEX

n TOTAL PROPERTY SALES 4TH QUARTER, 2018: 197

Last Reported Net Sales Market Value Proceeds Difference

TOTAL 11,640,760,744 11,771,288,835 130,528,091

Average 59,090,156 59,752,735 662,579

n TOTAL SALES WITHIN PROPERTY TYPE

Gross Net Sales Total Last Reported Net Sales Square MV/Sqft Proceeds/Sqft Number Market Value Proceeds Difference Feet or Units or Unit or Unit of Sales

APARTMENTTOTAL 3,825,113,048 3,932,876,507 107,763,459 13,594 281,382 289,310 63Average 60,716,080 62,426,611 1,710,531

INDUSTRIALTOTAL 1,469,487,645 1,510,933,974 41,446,329 10,257,060 143 147 54Average 27,212,734 27,980,259 767,525

OFFICETOTAL 5,775,070,242 5,772,614,469 -2,455,773 10,798,503 535 535 67Average 86,195,078 86,158,425 -36,653

RETAILTOTAL 349,989,809 333,148,976 -16,840,833 1,020,231 343 327 12Average 29,165,817 27,762,415 -1,403,403

Page 27: 40 Year Commemorative Edition - NCREIF · 40 Years NPI 1978-2018 200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135 CHICAGO, IL 60601 312-819-5890 NCREIF National Council of Real Es tate Investment Fiduciaries

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WESTERN TIMBERLAND OUTPERFORMS OTHER U.S. REGIONS IN CALENDAR YEAR 2018

U.S. private timberland investments returned 0.75 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, which is a 3.21 percent annual total return with data available through December 31. Strong returns in the West offsetting lackluster return performance in the South and Lake States characterized timberland performance for the year. Record high delivered log prices in the West during the first half of 2018 supported healthy gains in both timberland income and capital appreciation. Timberland investments in the South generated average income, yet capital appreciation registered a modest decline as expectations scaled back regarding prospects for southern timber markets despite the growing capital investment in the regions wood processing industry.

Fourth Quarter Results:

The Timberland Property Index (TPI) in the fourth quarter of 2018 measured performance of 453 properties spread across the U.S. with a total market value of $23,084 million. Timberland properties in the Index are grouped into four regions and reported separately. The TPI is heavily weighted toward pine and mixed hardwood plantations in the U.S. South, representing 63 percent of the Index by market value at Q4 2018. Twenty-nine percent of the Index by value is western timberland properties, and the remaining 8 percent of the Index value is split between high-value hardwoods and mixed softwood/hardwood timberlands in the Northeast (5 percent), the Lake States (3 percent), with less than one percent of the Index reflecting timberland outside of the four main regions.

Fourth quarter net operating income (EBITDDA) returns of 0.77 percent for U.S. timberland is a slight increase (3 bps) from fourth quarter of 2017. Regionally, net operating income in the US. South at 0.70 percent is slightly up from fourth quarter 2017 (3 bps), whereas EBITDDA on Northeast timberland investments at 1.53 percent is 103 bps above fourth quarter last year. Net operating incomes in the U.S. West, at 0.90 percent, and in the Lake States, at 0.33 fourth quarter were both declines from EBITDDA returns in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Calendar Year Results:

Net operating income (EBITDDA) returns of 3.24 percent for U.S. timberland in 2018 is an improvement from last year’s 2.77 percent and the highest annual income return reported for U.S. timberland since 2006. Timberland properties included within the NCREIF Timberland Index are third party appraised on an annual basis to determine market value. For calendar year 2018, the market value of U.S. timberland fell -0.03 percent from 2017 values. The nearly flat U.S. timberland appreciation rate in 2018 masked significant regional differences, with strong performance in the West and actual declines in the South and Lake States.

The dominant position of southern timberland in the Index, combined with the South’s relatively weak returns, pulled down the overall U.S. return performance in 2018. Western timberland in 2018 delivered a solid 9.19 total return, split fairly evenly between income and capital appreciation. Southern timberland returned a 0.84 percent total return, with income at 2.57 percent and a capital return of -1.69 percent for the year, reflecting lower appraised values. Western timberland total returns increased 216 basis points compared to last year, whereas southern timberland total returns ratcheted down by 190 basis points from last year’s performance, due to a combination of both lower income and capital appreciation.

Western Timberland Outperforms other U.S. Regions in Calendar Year 2018

Timberland total returns in the Lakes States, at -1.31 percent, was a slight improvement over 2017 returns of -1.50 percent. In 2018, operating income in the Lake States was off slightly from 2017, while the 2018 decline in capital appreciation was a bit more moderate than in the previous year. Northeast timberland performance in 2018 at 5.99 percent is 421 bps above 2017, with both income (4.92 percent) and appreciation (1.03 percent) showing solid improvements over 2017.

Mary Ellen AronowAssociate Director, Forest EconomicsHancock Natural Resource Group

T I M B E R L A N D T O T A L R E T U R N S

Total Property NPI Timberland Count South Northwest Northeast Lake States

4thQtr2018 1.35 0.97 453 0.12 2.82 2.72 -1.223rdQtr2018 1.67 1.02 461 0.33 2.76 0.43 0.77OneYear 6.70 3.44 0.84 10.01 5.99 -1.31ThreeYears 7.21 3.22 2.16 6.54 0.84 1.18FiveYears 9.32 4.98 4.14 7.86 2.81 3.42TenYears 7.49 3.83 2.47 7.75 1.75 4.28

T I M B E R L A N D E B I T D D A R E T U R N S

Total NPI Timberland South Northwest Northeast Lake States

4thQtr2018 1.11 0.77 0.70 0.90 1.53 0.333rdQtr2018 1.11 0.81 0.57 1.33 0.95 0.89OneYear 4.56 3.25 2.57 4.89 4.92 1.83ThreeYears 4.67 2.86 2.58 3.67 2.99 2.25FiveYears 4.88 2.83 2.60 3.52 2.85 2.14TenYears 5.48 2.63 2.36 3.52 2.05 1.25

T I M B E R L A N D A P P R E C I A T I O N R E T U R N S

Total NPI Timberland South Northwest Northeast Lake States

4thQtr2018 0.25 0.20 -0.58 1.92 1.19 -1.563rdQtr2018 0.56 0.21 -0.25 1.42 -0.52 -0.12OneYear 2.07 0.19 -1.69 4.94 1.03 -3.09ThreeYears 2.45 0.35 -0.41 2.80 -2.10 -1.05FiveYears 4.29 2.11 1.51 4.24 -0.04 1.25TenYears 1.92 1.18 0.12 4.13 -0.29 2.99

Page 28: 40 Year Commemorative Edition - NCREIF · 40 Years NPI 1978-2018 200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135 CHICAGO, IL 60601 312-819-5890 NCREIF National Council of Real Es tate Investment Fiduciaries

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The Farmland Index total return for 2018 came in at 6.74% compared to 6.19% for 2017 or nearly 9% higher. The stronger return was driven by a higher rate of appreciation in farmland values, 2.19% in 2018 versus 1.54% for 2017. The 2018 income return was slightly lower than the 2017 income yield at 4.47% versus 4.61%. The total market value of all 900 properties in the Index

database at yearend was $10.2 billion, split 62% by value in annual cropland and 38% by value in permanent cropland. The Pacific West region has the highest total market value at $4.1 billion with $3.3 billion of that in permanent cropland. In Q4 2018 the total return was 2.85% which is slightly lower than Q4 2017 at 2.93%. The difference is attributed to lower appreciation in Q4 2018 compared to Q4 2017 at 0.66% in Q4 2018 and 0.80% in Q4 2017.

Looking at the annual returns by region, the Pacific Northwest edged out the Pacific West with a total return of 8.86% compared to 8.66% for the Pacific West. The Pacific Northwest return was largely due to appreciation of 7.79% while the Pacific West return was primarily driven by income of 6.34%. In fact, the Pacific Northwest turned in the lowest annual income return of 1.05%. The lowest total return was 0.23% in the Lake States followed by the Corn Belt at 2.64%. Both regions saw a decline in market value of -3.23% and -0.22% respectively.

Drilling down further into returns by crop type, wine grapes turned in the best total annual returns of 13.48%, with 59% of that coming from appreciation. Pistachios came in close behind with a total annual return of 13.25% all of which came from income as the market value declined by -1.72%. Apples had a negative annual total return of -6.87% split

about evenly between market value

of -3.64% and income of -3.30%. Almonds also experienced a decline in market value of -2.99% which was offset by income of 5.96% resulting in a total annual return of 2.81%. Annual cropland showed a year-over-year increase in total annual returns at 5.92% versus 4.75% in 2017.

Farmland performed well in Q4 and for the year compared to equity and debt markets demonstrating in real-time the diversification traits of the asset class.

James B. McCandless, Managing DirectorHead of Real Estate – FarmlandReal Estate & Private Markets, UBS Asset Management

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C R O P T Y P E D I ST R I B U T I O N

1 year returns ending 12/31/2018

Crop Type Number of Properties

Market Value $ Millions

Income Return

Appreciation Return Total Return

Annual-Commodity 467 3444 3.12% 1.78% 4.94%Annual-FreshProduce 43 813 3.61% -10.18% -6.84%Annual-AllOther 150 2076 4.06% 3.78% 7.95%Annual-Total 660 6333 3.51% 2.34% 5.92%

Permanent-Apples 21 165 -3.3% -3.64% -6.87%Permanent-Almonds 65 958 5.96% -2.99% 2.81%Permanent-Citrus 12 177 7.8% 0.58% 8.42%Permanent-Pistachios 19 545 14.64% -1.68% 12.97%Permanent-WineGrapes 79 1584 5.25% 7.92% 13.45%Permanent-AllOthers 44 407 2.57% 0.06% 2.63%Permanent-Total 240 3836 6.19% 1.95% 8.23%

TOTAL 900 10170 4.47% 2.19% 6.74%

*IncludesCorn,Soybean,Cotton,Wheat,Rice**Includesgroundprimarilyusedtoproducefreshvegetablesorfreshfruit***IncludesAllvarietiesofOranges(FreshandJuice),Lemons,andAvocados

FARMLAND PROPERTY DISTRIBUTION BY PROPERTY TYPE AND REGION

Property TypeNumber of Properties

Market Value $ Millions

AnnualCropland 660 6,333PermanentCropland 240 3,836

Total 900 10,170

PacificWest 228 4,117PacificNorthwest 56 631CornBelt 243 1,034DeltaStates 137 2,155Southeast 62 695Mountain 73 765SouthernPlains 22 238LakeStates 44 273Other 35 262

Total 900 10,170

F A R M L A N D I N C O M E A N D A P P R E C I A T I O N R E T U R N S

Total Property Market Income Appreciation Return Count Value

4thQtr2018 2.19 0.66 2.85 900 10,169,500,3803rdQtr2018 1.06 0.22 1.29 851 9,443,358,973OneYear 4.47 2.19 6.74ThreeYear 4.74 1.86 6.67FiveYear 5.56 2.90 8.57SevenYear 6.37 5.08 11.65TenYear 6.43 4.55 11.16Inception 6.80 4.33 11.29

F A R M L A N D T O T A L R E T U R N S

Total Total Regional Farmland NPI Farmland Index Pacific West Pacific Northwest Corn Belt Delta Southeast

4thQtr2018 1.37 2.85 5.23 (0.27) 0.53 2.06 1.003rdQtr2018 1.67 1.29 1.41 0.65 0.70 1.40 3.22OneYear 6.72 6.74 8.66 8.86 2.64 7.00 7.40ThreeYear 7.21 6.67 9.21 10.04 0.02 4.61 7.24FiveYear 9.33 8.57 13.67 8.08 0.58 4.58 7.51SevenYear 9.74 11.65 16.61 10.62 5.48 8.30 9.24TenYear 7.49 11.16 14.94 7.83 8.18 9.38 7.35Inception 9.17 11.29 13.66 7.20 10.20 9.83 8.76

Page 29: 40 Year Commemorative Edition - NCREIF · 40 Years NPI 1978-2018 200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135 CHICAGO, IL 60601 312-819-5890 NCREIF National Council of Real Es tate Investment Fiduciaries

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A P A R T M E N T

n High-rise Elevator Projects: Buildings which are four stories or more in height.n Low-rise Projects: Walk-up buildings and elevator buildings three stories or less.n Garden-type Projects: Low-rise apartments situated on a sizable landscaped plot, under one management.

I N D U S T R I A L

n Flex Space: Single story buildings 10-18 foot ceilings with both floor height and dock height loading. Includes wide variation

in office space utilization, ranging from retail and personal service through distribution, light industrial and occasional heavy industrial use.

n R&D (Research and Development): One and two story, 10-15 foot ceiling heights with up to 50% office/dry lab space (remainder in wet lab,

workshop, storage and other support), with dock height and floor height loading.n Warehouse: 50,000 square feet or more with up to 15% office space, the balance being 18-30 foot ceiling height.

All loading is dock height.n Other: Includes Manufacturing and Office Showroom Manufacturing: Buildings with 10-16 foot ceilings or sufficient height for overhead cranes. Provides floor height and

dock height loading. Office Showroom: Single story (or mezzanine) with 10-16 foot ceilings with frontage treatment on one side and dock

height loading or grade level roll-up doors on the other. Less than 15% office.

O F F I C E

n CBD (Central Business District)}Zip code areas as defined by Torto Wheaton Researchn Suburban

R E T A I L

n Neighborhood Center: Provides for the sale of daily living needs of the immediate area. Typical area is 30,000 to 150,000 square feet with

at least one anchor tenant.n Community Center: In addition to convenience goods, provides for the sale of goods such as apparel or furniture. Typical area is

100,000 to 350,000 square feet with two or more anchor tenants.n Regional Center: Provides a variety of goods comparable to those of a central business district in a small city, including general

merchandise, apparel and home furnishings, as well as a variety of services and perhaps recreational facilities. Two or more full-line department stores anchor a total area of 400,000 to 800,000 square feet.

n Super-Regional Center: Provides an extensive variety of shopping goods comparable to those of the central business district of a major

metropolitan area. The anchors are three or more full-line department stores, with a total area in excess of 800,000 square feet.

n Single-Tenant: Free-standing structure with no additional anchor stores.

Page 30: 40 Year Commemorative Edition - NCREIF · 40 Years NPI 1978-2018 200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135 CHICAGO, IL 60601 312-819-5890 NCREIF National Council of Real Es tate Investment Fiduciaries

Celebrating 40 Years

NPI 1978-2018 

200 E. Randolph, Suite 5135 CHICAGO, IL 60601 

312-819-5890 www.NCREIF.org

NCREIF N a t i o n a l C o u n c i l o f R e a l E s t a t e I n v e s t m e n t F i d u c i a r i e s

40 Year Commemorative Edition Celebrating

40 Years NPI

1978-2018

NCREIF Property Index Performance Report

Fourth Quarter 2018

Blake Eagle—Founded NCREIF in 1978 at the Frank Russell Company in Tacoma, Washington

NCREIF Headquarters Today Chicago, Illinois

NCREIF N a t i o n a l C o u n c i l o f R e a l E s t a t e I n v e s t m e n t F i d u c i a r i e s

NCREIF Staff and Consulting StaffDan Dierking – President Stacy A. Gaskins – Chief Operating Officer Jeanine Olson – Project Manager Amy Hannon – Data Products Manager Joe D’Alessandro – Director of Real Estate Performance Measurement Ray Belliveau – Director of Member Services Fabiana Lotito – Program Manager Marybeth Kronenwetter – Director, Reporting Standards James Lenon – Sr. SQL/ Business Intelligence Developer Paul Abhishek – Data Architect Tamara Pendley – Meeting and Membership Services Brianne Schultz – Administrative Assistant Jeffrey Fisher – Consulting Education and Research Advisor Kevin Scherer – Consulting Product Development Advisor Jamie Kingsley – Consulting Performance Reporting Advisor

Effective November 2018NCREIF Board of DirectorsOfficersBoard Chair James Strezewski – Blue Vista Capital Management, LLCChair-Elect Charles G. Dannis – National Valuation Consultants, Inc.Treasurer Neal Armstrong – BNY MellonSecretary Candice W. Todd – Morgan Stanley Real Estate

DirectorsStephanie H. Brower – Russell Investments Tyler Brown – Barings, LLCJohn Ehli - DWSBlake Eagle – FounderThomas Lee – NYSTRSSimon Mallinson – Real Capital AnalyticsMaritza Matlosz – MetLifePaul Mouchakkaa - CalPERSCatherine Polleys – Aon Service Corporation

NCREIF Standing Committee ChairsAccounting Benay Kirk, Alter Domus US

Eric Mack, USAA Real Estate Company

Daily Pricing Meighan Phillips, Principal Real Estate Investors Sarah Gal, Callan LLC

Farmland Rich Matheson, Utah Retirement Systems

Information Management Minesh Valera, BNY Mellon Bill Foster, USAA Real Estate Company

Performance Measurement Matthew Gilbert, UBS Realty Brandon Millen, Intercontinental Real Estate Corp. Erik Gilliland, Invesco Real Estate

Plan Sponsor Greg Arendt, CalSTRS Devon Olson, Utah Retirement Systems

Research Richard Kleinman, LaSalle Investment Management, Inc. Chris Fruy, Heitman Capital Management

Timberland Evan Amano, Campbell Global LLC

Valuation Amy White, Invesco Real Estatel

NCREIF AmbassadorsTom Anathan David BradfordBarbara CambonJoyce FraterJim O’KeefeBill Ramseyer