40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015...
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![Page 1: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Understanding SPC’s Outlooksor
Everything you wanted to know about outlook probability to category conversion but were afraid to ask.
Greg Carbin, Jared Guyer, Bill Bunting, Russ Schneider
NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center
![Page 2: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Categories
Bottom line…
It’s about forecasting the overall coverage of severe storms…
…and the intensity of those storms!
![Page 3: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
From Probabilities to Day 2 CategoriesTotal of all hail, wind, & torn events
![Page 4: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
From Probabilities to Day 2 CategoriesTotal of all hail, wind, & torn events
What does Jimthink will happen tomorrow?
![Page 5: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
From Probabilities to Day 2 CategoriesTotal of all hail, wind, & torn events
5%
![Page 6: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
From Probabilities to Day 2 CategoriesTotal of all hail, wind, & torn events
15%
![Page 7: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
From Probabilities to Day 2 CategoriesTotal of all hail, wind, & torn events
15%sig
![Page 8: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
From Probabilities to Day 2 CategoriesTotal of all hail, wind, & torn events
30%
![Page 9: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
From Probabilities to Day 2 CategoriesTotal of all hail, wind, & torn events
30%sig
![Page 10: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
From Probabilities to Day 2 CategoriesTotal of all hail, wind, & torn events
45%
![Page 11: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
From Probabilities to Day 2 CategoriesTotal of all hail, wind, & torn events
45%sig
![Page 12: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
From Probabilities to Day 2 CategoriesTotal of all hail, wind, & torn events
60%
![Page 13: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
From Probabilities to Day 2 CategoriesTotal of all hail, wind, & torn events
60%sig
![Page 14: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
From Probabilities to Day 1 CategoriesHail, wind, & torn events
are considered separately.Significant severe usually
results in a category upgrade.
![Page 15: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Why Are These Numbers Important?
Five year sample: 2010 - 2014
Day 1 Probabilistic Outlooks Day 2 & 3 Probabilistic Outlooks
Because SPC Severe Weather Outlooks probabilities are reliable.
![Page 16: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Forecast Exercise
Case Studies for Day 2 SWO
Probability Practice
Greg Carbin, Jared Guyer and Patrick Marsh
NWS-NCEP-Storm Prediction Center
![Page 17: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Severe Weather Forecast Exercise
- 00Z 500 mb heights, temps (C), isotachs (kt)
- 00Z surface pressure, 2m temps/dewpoints (F), 10m wind (kt)
- 00Z surface pressure, CAPE, HLCY
- What states were most impacted by severe weather on this day?
- Were there significant tornadoes (F2-3)? How many and where?
- Were there violent tornadoes (F4-5)? How many and where?
- What happened?
- 00Z Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP)
![Page 18: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #1 – 500 mb
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40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #1 – MSLP/T/Td
![Page 20: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #1 – MSLP/CAPE/SRH
![Page 21: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #1 – Supercell Composite
![Page 22: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #2
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40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #2 – 500 mb
![Page 24: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #2 – MSLP/T/Td
![Page 25: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #2 – MSLP/CAPE/SRH
![Page 26: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #2 – Supercell Composite
![Page 27: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #3
![Page 28: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #3 – 500 mb
![Page 29: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #3 – MSLP/T/Td
![Page 30: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #3 – MSLP/CAPE/SRH
![Page 31: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #3 – Supercell Composite
![Page 32: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #4
![Page 33: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #4 – 500 mb
![Page 34: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #4 – MSLP/T/Td
![Page 35: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #4 – MSLP/CAPE/SRH
![Page 36: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Case #4 – Supercell Composite
![Page 37: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
Here’s what happened…
![Page 38: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
TOR = 5F2+ = 1F4+ = 1DPI = 4.8
CASE #1 verification
13 July 2004: Roanoke, IL F4 and later derecho. ~400 total reports.
![Page 39: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
TOR = 5F2+ = 1F4+ = 1DPI = 4.8
CASE #1 verification
45% SIGModerate Risk
60% Moderate Risk
13 July 2004: Roanoke, IL F4 and later derecho. ~400 total reports.
![Page 40: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
TOR = 30F2+ = 20F4+ = 7DPI = 1156Fatalities= 89
CASE #2 verification
Infamous 1985 OH/PA tornado outbreak
![Page 41: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
TOR = 30F2+ = 20F4+ = 7DPI = 1156Fatalities= 89
CASE #2 verification
Infamous 1985 OH/PA tornado outbreak
60% SIGHigh Risk
![Page 42: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
TOR = 7F2+ = 4F4+ = 1DPI = 38Fatalities= 6
CASE #3 verification
3 June 1980: “Night of the Twisters!” Grand Island, NE tornado cluster.
![Page 43: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
TOR = 7F2+ = 4F4+ = 1DPI = 38Fatalities= 6
CASE #3 verification
30% SIGEnhanced Risk
3 June 1980: “Night of the Twisters!” Grand Island, NE tornado cluster.
![Page 44: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
TOR = 50F2+ = 27F4+ = 4DPI = 633Fatalities= 21
26 April 1991: Andover, KS and Red Rock, OK. TORNADO OUTBREAK!
CASE #4 verification
![Page 45: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
40th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015
TOR = 50F2+ = 27F4+ = 4DPI = 633Fatalities= 21
CASE #4 verification
45% SIGModerate Risk
60% SIGHigh Risk
26 April 1991: Andover, KS and Red Rock, OK. TORNADO OUTBREAK!
![Page 46: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Severe Weather Forecast Exercise
- Summary: Why is tornado forecasting so hard?
- A wide range of large-scale conditions…
- Generally poor forecasts of storm-scale conditions…
- Any time of year…
- Just about anywhere…
- Tornadoes kill people and can ruin your day!
![Page 48: 40 th Annual Meeting, National Weather Association, Broadcast Meteorology Workshop Oct. 18, 2015 Understanding SPC’s Outlooks or Everything you wanted.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062305/5697bfa11a28abf838c95e45/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)