4. Quarter 2001 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/850224/100204.pdf · 2019-07-16 · UK 100...
Transcript of 4. Quarter 2001 - Hugin Onlinereports.huginonline.com/850224/100204.pdf · 2019-07-16 · UK 100...
4. Quarter 2001
Arne Nore, CEO
Tuesday, 26th February 2002
) THE PAN FISH SEAFOOD RANGE
Fully integrated value chain
) Pelagics - A huge group of wild fish species
Worldwide catch
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
19 8 4 198 5 19 8 6 19 8 7 19 8 8 19 89 19 9 0 19 9 1 19 92 19 9 3 19 9 4 199 5 19 9 6 19 9 7 199 8 19 9 9
1000
mt
Bunnfis k Andre a rte r P e lagis k TOTAL
) Consumption Business Area
• 5 fully and 2 partly owned production plants• Production plants located on the west coast of
Norway• 2 fully owned sales companies• Leading producer and exporter of pelagic fish and
fish products from Norway • Raw material landings 200 000 t• 20% of total Norwegian production and export
)Mackerel export – prices and quantities
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Months
Vo
lum
e to
ns
0
2
4
6
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10
12
Exp
ort
pri
ce
Volume 1999Volume 2000Volume 2001Price 1999Price 2000Price 2001
) Herring fillet export – prices and quantities
02000400060008000
100001200014000160001800020000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Months
Vol
umes
tons
0
2
4
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Exp
ort p
rice
Volume 1999Volume 2000Volum 2001Price 1999Price 2000Price 2001
) Catch – Pan Pelagic ASA
• Pan Pelagic has part-ownerships in 28 vessels with quotas for catch of pelagic species
• Positive development in quota prices
• Hedge against change in feed prices
) Meal/oil – Pan Pelagic ASA
• Strong demand for fishmeal and oil• Fish oil prices more than doubled
last 12 months• Fishmeal prices up more than 20%
last 12 months• Fishmeal & oil factories:
• Måløy 2• Vadsø 1• Horsøy 1
• Yearly rawmaterial supply 410-460.000 tonnes
) Fishmeal – supply & demand
0
2
4
6
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10
12
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
E
2002
E
2003
E
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2008
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2009
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2010
E
Mill
. ton
n
0
100
200
300
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700
US$
/tonn
cif
Ham
burg
64-
65%
Aquaculture Pig Poultry Price of fishmeal Production of fishmeal
Price of fishmeal: Quoted c&f Hamburg, 64-65% protein. Assumptions demand 2000-2010: Unchanged FCR and fishmeal content in the feed. Sources: FAO, IFOMA, Oilworld, Kontali Analyse AS.
US$
/tonn
cif
Ham
burg
64-
65%
Mill
.Ton
n
1994 – 2010E
) Fish oil – supply & demand
Price of fishoil; Quoted North-Western Europe, any origin Assumptions demand 2000-2010: Unchanged FCR and fishoil content in the feed Sources: FAO, IFOMA, Oilworld, Kontali Analyse AS.
1994 – 2010E
1000
tonn
es
0
200
400
600
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1000
1200
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2000
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
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2001
E
2002
E
2003
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2004
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2006
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2007
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2008
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2009
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2010
E
0
100
200
300
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US$
/tonn
N.W
. Eur
ope
Fishoil needed in aquaculture Price of fishoil Production of fishoil
) Fish feed
• Integration of fish feed production:• Sea Grain AS (ownership 35%) will
start feed production in august 2002• Pan Pelagic will start feed production
in 2003 in:• Vancouver• Måløy
) Feed consumption in Norway continues to be extremely low!
Grow th in feed consumption (3m rolling average)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Apr-97 Oct-97 Apr-98 Oct-98 Apr-99 Oct-99 Apr-00 Oct-00 Apr-01 Oct-01
Source: FPF, First Securities
) Last year’s feed/biomass ratio is the lowest within the last 6 years
Source: FPF, Kontali, First Securities
Feed consumption/biomass
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
) Supply - Generation and year differences
Source: Kontali, First Securities
Change Biomass Y/Y
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
00G-1 Year 00G-0 Year 01G
Harvested until March-May 02 Harvested Summer 02-Spring 03Harvested Spring 02-Summer 02
) Sharp decline in supply growth this year implies increasing prices
Source: EFF, SSB, Kontali, First Securities
Supply growth vs. Price
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001E 2002E
Price Change Supply change
Average annual supply growth (15.8%)
) Market - Supply summary• We expect the supply-side to contract this year, moving towards a strongly
improved market balance• No growth, possibly reduction in production for the first time in more than
10 years Pan Fish1997 1998 1999 2000 2001E 2002E
Norway 316 343 411 422 419 419UK 100 111 126 123 155 140Faroe Islands 21 19 36 30 50 50Ireland 16 17 19 19 22 22Iceland 3 3 4 4 5 5
Total Europe 456 493 596 598 651 636
Canada 48 56 67 70 84 84USA 19 21 23 22 24 20
Total North-America 67 77 90 92 108 104
Chile 97 107 102 150 220 200
Others 8 9 10 11 12 13
Total 628 686 798 851 991 953
Annual growth 15,0 % 9,2 % 16,3 % 6,6 % 16,5 % -2,1 %
Source: Kontali, Pan Fish
) Market development for the main Atlantic salmon markets-
Increase in year 2001 compared to year 2000:
EU: +8 %, USA: +25 %, JAPAN: +23 %, OTHERS: +16 %
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
EU USA JAPAN OTHERS
4.kv 20001.kv 20012.kv 20013.kv 20014.kv 2001 e
-1,4%
+19%
+3%
+17%+14%
+2%+11%
+26%
+28%
+22%+29%
+20%
+14%+16%+21%
+12%
+8%+19%+39%
+32%
The figures shows change in supply one quarter compared to the same quarter last year
Figures in tonnes round weight
Source: Kontali Analyse AS, 13.11.2001
)Market - Strong relationship between supply growth and price change
Source: Kontali, First Securities
-2%
-16%
-10%
7%
13%
-23%
0%-1%-1%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001E 2002E
% p
rice
chan
ge
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
% s
uppl
y ch
ange
Price Change Supply change
) We’re close to the bottom of the cycle
Source: EFF, SSB, Kontali, First Securities
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02% B
iom
ass
chan
ge
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
Expo
rt p
rice
NO
K/k
g
Biomass change Export price
) Prices are picking up!FNL and Export prices
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 1 3 5 7
FNL
NO
K/k
g
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Expo
rt N
OK
/kgFNL Eksport
) The rebound will be steep!
Source: FHL Havbruk, Kontali, First Securities
FNL-price vs. production costs
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
NO
K/k
g
FNL-price Prod. cost
-32%/+83%
-43%/+54%
-46%/+42%
-59%/+?%
) Usually a steep increase from bottom...
Source: FHL Havbruk, First Securities
Price development in periods w ith prices below cost
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-38 -34 -30 -26 -22 -18 -14 -10 -6 -2 2 6 10 14 18 22
Week
NO
K/k
g
91-92 93-94 95-96 01-02
) Pan Fish – Sales of Atlantic salmonTonnes live weight 1999 2 000 2 001 2002EHarvested volumeNorway/Faroe Islands 5 200 33 600 50 000 65 000 Scotland 9 000 10 600 12 200 12 000 North-America 12 000 20 000 27 800 40 000 TOTAL 26 200 64 200 90 000 117 000
Traded volumeNorway 10 000 15 000 20 000 20 000 Britain incl. the Faroes 4 000 12 000 6 000 6 000 America (incl. Chile) 4 000 10 000 18 000 20 000 TOTAL 18 000 37 000 44 000 46 000
Total volume 44 200 101 200 134 000 163 000
Market share 8 % 12 % 13 % 15 %
Vertical integration towards consumers
) Processing & distribution
• Vertical integration towards consumer
• Focus on more efficient• primary processing• secondary processing• sales & distribution
) Primary processing
• Integration of harvesting and filleting
• Efficient logistic solutions from each production region
• Sentralised primary processing in our production regions
• Norway• The Fareos• Loch Fyne region, Scotland• West coast of Canada and the USA
) Secondary processing
Establish secondary processingand distribution in main markets;• Vestlax – one of the worlds most
profitable smokehouses• Delfa• Norsk Sjømat• Seafood Farmers of Norway• Pan Fish France
• Contracts • Distribution centres
) Sales and distribution
Financial Performance
) Income statement
Mill. NOK4.Q 2001 4.Q 2000 31.12.2001 31.12.2000
Sales revenues 1 715,2 1 652,5 5 592,4 4 742,5 Other operating expenses 1 660,6 1 459,1 5 170,7 3 828,3 EBITDA 54,6 193,4 421,7 914,2 Write-offs 37,0 - 37,0 - Depreciation 70,9 64,2 240,8 181,1 Operating profit -53,3 129,2 143,9 733,1
Income from associates 16,6 0,8 32,7 8,6 Net financial items -108,5 -70,3 185,2 1,6 Total financial items -91,9 -69,5 217,9 10,2 Extraordinary items - - - - Profit before taxes -145,2 59,7 361,8 743,3
) EBITDA – Pan Fish Group
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Oct Nov Dec
NO
Km
ill.
)Balance sheetMill. NOK At 31.12.2001 At 31.12.2000
Licences 1 435,2 873,3 Goodwill 588,2 279,9 Buildings, machinery, etc. 2 273,3 1 764,5 Investm. in assoc./shares/receiv. 1 076,6 649,6 Total fixed asets 5 373,3 3 567,3
Inventories 1 877,8 1 525,4 Account receivables 1 028,8 870,3 Liquid assets 83,6 184,4 Total current assets 2 990,2 2 580,1 Total assets 8 363,5 6 147,4
Total equity 1 012,2 728,7
Minority interest 161,7 113,6
Convertible loan 0,3 16,0 Long-term liabilities 4 725,5 3 786,9 Current liabilities 2 463,8 1 502,2 Total liabilities 7 189,6 5 305,1 Total equity and liabilities 8 363,5 6 147,4
Net interest-bearing liabilities 5 649,0 3 835,0
)Fish Farming - Group4.Q 2001 4.Q 2000 At 31.12.2001 At 31.12.2000
Tonnes, round weightSales 22 372 16 700 89 270 64 200
NOKm:Sales revenues 467,9 446,8 2 053,6 2 116,7 Operating profit -105,6 74,0 -29,1 680,5 Operating margin -22,6 % 16,6 % -1,4 % 32,1 %
NOK/kg round weightSales price 10,89 19,22 14,43 23,42 Cost of production 13,82 14,66 14,83 15,69 Margin -2,93 4,56 -0,40 7,73
) Processing - Sales
Mill. NOK4.Q 2001 4.Q 2000 At 31.12.2001 At 31.12.2000
ProcessingSales revenues 359,0 425,5 1 272,9 1 057,0 Operating profit 28,2 21,4 88,3 3,1 Operating margin 7,9 % 5,0 % 6,9 % 0,3 %
SalesSales revenues 548,9 624,3 2 299,0 2 350,6 Operating profit 15,1 6,9 40,5 24,4 Operating margin 2,7 % 1,1 % 1,8 % 1,0 %
) Pan Pelagic ASA
Mill. NOK4.Q 2001 At 31.12.2001*
Sales revenues 639,5 1 344,7 Operating profit 14,1 72,4 Operating margin 2,2 % 5,4 %
*I 2001 har Pan Pelagic vært konsolidert som datterselskap i periodene 1.01-31.03 og 01.08-31.12 I perioden fra 01.04-31.08 var selskapet konsolidert som tilknyttet selskap og rapportert under finansposter