4 Pronos Ticos
Transcript of 4 Pronos Ticos
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
Management, 7e
2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-1
Administracion deProduccion y
Operaciones
Pronosticos
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-2
Que es Pronosticar?
Proceso de predecir un
evento futuro
Enfoques basicos de
toda decision de
negocios Produccion
Inventarios
Personal
Instalaciones
Ventasseran $200
Millones!
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Pronosticos a Corto Plazo Hasta 1 ao; generalmente menor a 3 meses
Planear compras,Programacion Planta,Niveles de Produccion
Pronosticos a Mediano Plazo 3 meses a 3 aos
Planeacion de produccion y Ventas, Presupuestos
Pronosticos a Largo Plazo 3+aos
Planeacion de nuevos productos, construccion planta
Tipos de Pronosticos porHorizonte de Tiempo
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
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Corto Plazo vs. Largo Plazo
Medio/largo plazotienen que ver con asuntosmas extensos, que apoyan las decisiones
administrativas con respecto a la planeacion,
los productos,plantas y procesos.Corto Plazogeneralmente utiliza metodologias
diferentes de aquellos a mayor plazo.
Corto Plazotienden a ser mas exactos que lospronosticos a largo plazo.
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Influencia del Ciclo de Vida del
Producto
Las fases de introduccion y crecimiento requieren depronosticos a mas largo Plazo que las otras etapas.
Pronosticos utiles para proyectar niveles de asesoria,
niveles de inventarios, y
Capacidad de planta
mientras el producto pasa de la primera fase a la ultima
Introduccion, Crecimiento, Madurez,Declinacion
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-6
Strategy and Issues During aProducts Life
Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
Standardization
Less rapid productchanges - more minor
changes
Optimum capacity
Increasing stability ofprocess
Long production runs
Product improvement andcost cutting
Little product
differentiation
Cost minimization
Over capacity in the
industry
Prune line to eliminate
items not returning good
margin
Reduce capacity
Forecasting critical
Product and processreliability
Competitive productimprovements and options
Increase capacity
Shift toward productfocused
Enhance distribution
Product design anddevelopment critical
Frequent product and
process design changes
Short production runs
High production costs
Limited models
Attention to quality
Best period toincrease marketshare
R&D productengineering critical
Practical to changeprice or quality image
Strengthen niche
Cost controlcritical
Poor time to changeimage, price, or quality
Competitive costs becomecritical
Defend market position
OM
Strategy/Issue
s
Compan
yStrategy/Issues
HDTV
CD-ROM
Color copiers
Drive-thru restaurants Fax machines
Stationwagons
Sales
3 1/2
Floppydisks
Internet
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-7
Tipos de Pronosticos
Pronosticos Economicos Marcan ciclo del negocio, e.g., tasa inflacion, oferta de
dinero etc.
Pronosticos Tecnologicos Predecir tasas deprogreso tecnologico
Predecir aceptacion de nuevos productos
Pronosticos de Demanda Predecir Ventas de un Producto existente
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-8
Ocho Pasos en Pronosticos
Determinar el uso de Pronostico
Seleccionar los items que se van a pronosticar
Determinar el horizonte de tiempo del Pronostico
Seleccionar los modelo(s) de pronosticos
Recopilacion de los datos
Validar el modelo de pronostico
Hacer el Pronostico Instrumentar los Resultados
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-9
Demanda Real, Promedio Movil,Promedio Movil Ponderado
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
SalesDemand
Ventas Reales
Promedio Movil
Promedio Movil Ponderado
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
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Enfoques para Pronosticar
Usados cuando lasituacion es estable &
existen datos historicos Productos existentes
Tecnologia actual
Incluye el uso de
Tecnicas Matematicas
Metodos Cuantitativos Usados cuando la
situacion es vaga o
existen pocos datos Nuevos productos
Nueva tecnologia
Incluyen la intuicion,la
experiencia
Metodos Cualitativos
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-11
Metodos Cualitativos
Jurado de Opinion Ejecutiva Opinion de un grupo de altos ejecutivos, algunas
veces apoyados por modelos estadisticos
Metodo de DelphiPanel de expertos , requiere iteratividad
Compuesto de Fuerza de Ventas
Cada vendedor estima sus ventas y luego se realizaun pronostico global
Encuesta a consumidores de Mercado Solicita la informacion de los clientes
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-12
Metodos Cuantitativos
Simplista
Promedio Moviles
Suavizacion Exponencial
Proyeccion de Tendencia
Regresion Lineal
Modelos de
Series de
Tiempo
Modelo
Causal
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
Management, 7e
2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-13
Metodos Cuantitativos(No-Simplista)
Pronosticos
Cuantitativos
Regresion
Lineal
Modelo
Causal
SuavizacionExponencial
PromedioMovil
Modelos deSeries Tiempo
ProyeccionTendencia
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-14
Secuencia de puntos de datos seoarados de manera
uniforme Obtienen observando los datos en periodos regulares de tiempo
Pronostica basado solo con datos pasados Asumen que los factores que influenciaron el pasado y el presente
continuaran influenciando en el futuro
Ejemplo
Ao: 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Ventas: 78.7 63.5 89.7 93.2 92.1
Que es una Serie de Tiempo?
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-15
TENDENCIA
ESTACIONALIDAD
Ciclos
AZAR
Componentes de una Serie de Tiempo
D d d l P d t d 4 A
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
Management, 7e
2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-16
Demanda del Producto de 4 Aoscon Tendencia y Estacionalidad
Ao1
Ao2
Ao3
Ao4
Picos estacionales Comport. tendencia
Linea Real
Demanda
Demanda
promediodespues 4 aos
Demand
aparaelproductoorservicio
Variacion
azar
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
Management, 7e
2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-18
Patron de datos que se repite a si mismodespues de un periodo
Debido al clima, clientes etc.Ocurre dentro de un ao
Mo., Qtr.
Verano
1984-1994 T/Maker Co.
Componentes Estacionalidad
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
Management, 7e
2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-20
Movimientos repetitivos hacia arriba y abajo
Debido a la interaccion de factores que influencianen la economia
Usualmente 2-10 aos de duracion
Mo., Qtr., Yr.
Ciclo
Componentes del Ciclo
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-21
No siguen un Patron Predecible
Debido a variaciones al azar o eventos
impredecibles
Huelgas
Huracan
Son de Corta duracion y no repetitivos
1984-1994 T/Maker Co.
Componentes de Variacion al Azar
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-22
Modelo Simplista
Asume que la demanda en el
proximo periodo es la misma
que el periodo mas reciente e.g., Si Mayo ventas fueron 48,
entonces Junio vendera 48
Algunas veces mas eficiente
en costo y mas efectivo
1995 Corel Corp.
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
Management, 7e
2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-23
PM es una serie de medias aritmeticas
Usado si hay poca o ninguna tendencia
Usado frecuentemente para suavizar las irregularidades Provee una impresion global sobre los datos
Equation
PMn
Demanda en nperiodos previos
Metodo Promedios Moviles
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-24
Ud. Es el gerente de un museo que vende
replicas. Ud.quiere pronosticarlas ventas (000)
para 2003usando un PM de 3-periodos.
1998 41999 6
2000 5
2001 32002 7
1995 Corel Corp.
Ejemplo Promedio Movil
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-25
Solucion Promedio Movil
Tiempo VentasReales
Yi
MovilTotal(n=3)
PromedioMovil(n=3)
1998 4 NA NA1999 6 NA NA
2000 5 NA NA
2001 3 4+6+5=15 15/3 = 52002 72003 NA
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
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Solucion Promedio Movil
Tiempo VentasReales
Yi
MovilTotal(n=3)
PromedioMovil(n=3)
1998 4 NA NA1999 6 NA NA
2000 5 NA NA
2001 3 4+6+5=15 15/3 = 52002 7 6+5+3=14 14/3=4 2/32003 NA
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Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
Management, 7e
2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-27
Solucion Promedio Movil
Tiempo VentasReales
Yi
MovilTotal(n=3)
PromedioMovil(n=3)
1998 4 NA NA1999 6 NA NA
2000 5 NA NA
2001 3 4+6+5=15 15/3=5.02002 7 6+5+3=14 14/3=4.72003 NA 5+3+7=15 15/3=5.0
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95 96 97 98 99 00Ao
Ventas
2
4
6
8 Actual
Pronostico
Grafica Promedio Movil
Metodo Promedio Movil
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-29
Usado cuando hay una tendencia o patron
Datos mas viejos son usualmente menos importantes
Pesos son basados en la Intuicion
Frecuentementeentre 0 y 1, y suman 1.0
Formula
PMP = (Peso para el periodo n) (Demanda period n)
Pesos
Metodo Promedio MovilPonderado
Demanda Real Promedio Movil
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-30
Demanda Real, Promedio Movil,Promedio Movil Ponderado
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
SalesDem
and
Ventas Reales
Promedio Movil
Promedio Movil Ponderado
Desventajas del Metodo de
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Incremento de nhace el pronostico
menos sensitivo a los cambios
No pueden reconocer muy bien lastendencias
Requiere muchos datos historicos 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.
Desventajas del Metodo dePromedios Moviles
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Formulas de la Suavizacion
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-33
Ft = Ft-1+ (At-1- Ft-1)
Ft = El pronostico nuevo
Ft-1 = El pronostico anterior
At-1 = Demanda real del periodo anterior
= Constante de Suavizacion
Formulas de la SuavizacionExponencial
Ejemplo de Suavizacion Exponencial
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Durante los pasados 8 trimestres,el Puerto de Cortes ha descargado
grandes cantidades de frijoles. (= .10). El pronostico del primertrimestrer fue de 175..
Trimestre Real
1 180
2 1683 159
4 175
5 190
6 2057 180
8 182
9 ?
Ejemplo de Suavizacion Exponencial
Encontrar elpronostico para el
9thtrimestre.
S l i S i i E i l
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Ft= Ft-1
+ 0.1(At-1
- Ft-1
)
Trimestre RealPronostico F t
( = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Dado)2 168
3 159
4 1755 190
6 205
175.00 +
Solucion Suavizacion Exponencial
S l i S i i E i l
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-36
Trimest RealPronostico, F t
( = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Dado)
2 168 175.00 + .10(
3 159
4 175
5 190
6 205
Solucion Suavizacion Exponencial
Ft= Ft-1+ 0.1(At-1- Ft-1)
Solucion Suavizacion Exponencial
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Trimest RealPronost, Ft
( = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Dado)
2 168 175.00 + .10(180-
3 159
4 175
5 190
6 205
Solucion Suavizacion Exponencial
Ft= Ft-1+ 0.1(At-1- Ft-1)
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S l i S i i E i l
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Trimestre RealPronost, Ft
( = .10)1 180 175.00 (Dado)
2 168 175.00 +.10(180 - 175.00)= 175.50
3 159
4 175
5 190
6 205
Solucion Suavizacion Exponencial
Ft= Ft-1+ 0.1(At-1- Ft-1)
S l i S i i E i l
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Ft= Ft-1+ 0.1(At-1- Ft-1)
Trimestre RealPronostico, F t
( = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Dado)
2 168 175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.50
3 159 175.50+.10(168 -175.50)= 174.75
4 175
5 190
6 205
Solucion Suavizacion Exponencial
Solucion Suavizacion Exponencial
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Ft= Ft-1+ 0.1(At-1- Ft-1)
Trimestre RealPronostico, F t
( = .10)
1995 180 175.00 (Dado)
1996 168 175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.50
1997 159 175.50 + .10(168 - 175.50) = 174.75
1998 175
1999 190
2000 205
174.75+.10(159- 174.75)= 173.18
Solucion Suavizacion Exponencial
Solucion Suavizacion Exponencial
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Ft= Ft-1+ 0.1(At-1- Ft-1)
Trimestre RealPronostico, F t
( = .10)
1 180 175.00 (Dado)
2 168 175.00 + .10(180 - 175.00) = 175.50
3 159 175.50 + .10(168 - 175.50) = 174.75
4 175 174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75) = 173.18
5 190 173.18 + .10(175- 173.18)= 173.36
6 205
Solucion Suavizacion Exponencial
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Solucion Suavizacion Exponencial
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Management, 7e
2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-44
Ft= Ft-1+ 0.1(At-1- Ft-1)
Trimest RealPronostico, F t
( = .10)
4 175 174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75) = 173.185 190 173.18 + .10(175 - 173.18) = 173.36
6 205 173.36+ .10(190 - 173.36) = 175.02
Solucion Suavizacion Exponencial
7 180
8
175.02 + .10(205- 175.02) = 178.02
9
Solucion Suavizacion Exponencial
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Ft= Ft-1+ 0.1(At-1- Ft-1)
Trimest RealPronostico, F t
( = .10)
4 175 174.75 + .10(159 - 174.75) = 173.185 190 173.18 + .10(175 - 173.18) = 173.36
6 205 173.36+ .10(190 - 173.36) = 175.02
Solucion Suavizacion Exponencial
7 180
8
175.02 + .10(205 - 175.02) = 178.02
9 178.22 + .10(182- 178.22) = 178.58182 178.02 + .10(180 - 178.02) = 178.22
?
Efecto en el Pronostico de laC t t d S i i
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Ft = At - 1 + (1- )At - 2+ (1- )2At - 3+ ...
Constante de Suavizacion
PesosPERIODO MAS
RECIENTE
2 PERIODOS
ATRAS
(1 - )3 PERIODOS ATRAS
(1 - )2=
= 0.10= 0.90
10%
Efecto en el Pronostico de laC t t d S i i
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Ft = At - 1 + (1- )At - 2+ (1- )2At - 3+ ...
PesosPERIODO MAS
RECIENTE2 PERIODOS
ATRAS(1 - )3 PERIODOS ATRAS(1 - )2=
= 0.10= 0.90
10% 9%
Constante de Suavizacion
Efecto en el Pronostico de laC t t d S i i
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Ft = At - 1 + (1- )At - 2+ (1- )2At - 3+ ...
PesosPERIODO MAS
RECIENTE2 PERIODOS
ATRAS(1 - )3 PERIODOS ATRAS(1 - )2=
= 0.10= 0.90
10% 9% 8.1%
Constante de Suavizacion
Efecto en el Pronostico de laC t t d S i i
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Ft = At - 1 + (1- )At - 2+ (1- )2At - 3+ ...
PesosPERIODO MAS
RECIENTE2 PERIODOS
ATRAS(1 - )3 PERIODOS ATRAS(1 - )2=
= 0.10= 0.90
10% 9% 8.1%
90%
Constante de Suavizacion
Efecto en el Pronostico de laC t t d S i i
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Ft = At - 1 + (1- )At - 2+ (1- )2At - 3+ ...
PesosPERIODO MAS
RECIENTE2 PERIODOS
ATRAS(1 - )3 PERIODOS ATRAS(1 - )2=
= 0.10= 0.90
10% 9% 8.1%
90% 9%
Constante de Suavizacion
Efecto en el Pronostico de laConstante de S a i acion
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Ft = At - 1 + (1- )At - 2+ (1- )2At - 3+ ...Pesos
PERIODO MAS
RECIENTE2 PERIODOS
ATRAS(1 - )3 PERIODOS ATRAS(1 - )2=
= 0.10= 0.90
10% 9% 8.1%
90% 9% 0.9%
Constante de Suavizacion
Impact of
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Impact of
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Quarter
Actual
Tonage
ActualForecast 0.1
Forecast 0.5
Escogiendo
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PowerPoint presentation to accompany Heizer/RenderPrinciples of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations
Management, 7e
2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-53
Escogiendo Se busca minimizar la Desviacion Media Absoluta (MAD)
Si: Error del Pronostico = demanda - pronostico
Entonces:
MADErrores del pronostico
n
Suavizacion Exponencial conajuste de Tendencia
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-54
ajuste de Tendencia
Pronostico incluido Tendencia(FITt)
= Pronostico Suavizacion Exponencial (FTt)
+ Tend. ExponencialmenteSuavizada (Tt)
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Suavizacion Exponencial conajuste de Tendencia
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FTt= pronostico con tendencia de periodo t
Tt= Estimacion de tendencia del periodo t
At= Dato real del periodo t
= Constante de suavizacion para lospromedios
= Constante de suavizacion para la tendencia
St= Pronostico suavizado del periodo t
ajuste de Tendencia
Comparacion Actual y Pronosticos
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p y
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Meses
Deman
da
Demanda
Actual
Pronostico
Suavizado
Tendencia
Suavizada
Pronosticot incluida
la tendencia
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Minimos Cuadrados
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Deviacion
Deviacion
Deviacion
Deviacion
Deviacion
Deviacion
Deviacion
Tiempo
Valoresdelavariabled
ependiente
bxaY
ObservacionActual
Punto
sobre la
linea de
regresion
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Ecuaciones Minimos Cuadrados
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Management, 7e
2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-63
Equacion: ii bxaY
Pendiente:
xnx
yxnyxb
i
n
i
ii
n
i
Y-Interseccion: xbya
Tabla de Calculos
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2004 by Prentice Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, N.J. 074584-64
X i Y i X i2
Y i2
X iY i
X 1 Y 1 X 12
Y 12
X 1Y 1
X 2 Y 2 X 22
Y 22
X 2Y 2
: : : : :
X n Y n X n2
Y n2
X nY n
X i Y i X i2
Y i2
X iY i
Ejemplo Regresion Lineal
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Ao Demanda
1997 74
1998 791999 80
2000 90
2001 105
2002 142
2003 122
La demanda para laenergia electrica en
N.Y.Edison sobre los
aos 19972003 es
la dad. Encontrar latendencia .
Ejemplo-Cont.
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Ao Periodo
Tiempo
Demanda
Energia
x2 xy
1997 1 74 1 74
1998 2 79 4 158
1999 3 80 9 2402000 4 90 16 360
2001 5 105 25 525
2002 6 142 36 852
2003 7 122 49 854
x=28 y=692 x2=140 xy=3,063
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Pronostico Actual y Tendencia
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VENTAS mensuales de Laptops
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Demanda Ventas Demanda Promedio
Mes 2000 2001 2002 2000-2002 Mensual Indice EstacionJan 80 85 105 90 94 0.957
Feb 70 85 85 80 94 0.851
Mar 80 93 82 85 94 0.904
Apr 90 95 115 100 94 1.064
May 113 125 131 123 94 1.309
Jun 110 115 120 115 94 1.223
Jul 100 102 113 105 94 1.117
Aug 88 102 110 100 94 1.064
Sept 85 90 95 90 94 0.957Oct 77 78 85 80 94 0.851
Nov 75 72 83 80 94 0.851
Dec 82 78 80 80 94 0.851
Demanda Laptops
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Modelo Estacionalidad
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Encuentran Demanda Promedio Historicapara cada estacionsumando la demanda para cada estacion en cada ao, ydividiendo por el numero de aos cada cada que se tiene.
Calcula la demanda promedio general de todas las estacionesdiviendo la demanda promedio total anual por el numero de
estaciones. Cacular un Indice Estacional,dividiendo la demanda historica
de la estacion (from step 1) por la demanda promedio general.
Estimar la demanda total del proximo ao
Dividir este estimado del total de la demanda por el numero deestaciones, entonces multipliquelo por el indice estacional paraesa estacion. Esto da el Pronostico estacional.
EJERCICIOS DE PRONOSTICOS
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Estimacion del Error Estandar
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2
2
1 11
2
1
2
,
n
yxbyay
n
yyS
n
i
n
i
iii
n
i
i
n
i
ci
xy
Correlacion
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Respuestas: Que tan fuertees la relacion entrelas variables?
Coeficiente de correlacion denominado r
Rango Valores de -1to +1
Mide el grado de asociasion
Formula de Coeficiente de
Correlacion
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n
i
n
iii
n
i
n
iii
n
i
n
i
n
iiiii
yynxxn
yxyxn
r
Coeficiente de Correlacion ymodelo de Regresion
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r = 1 r = -1
r = .89 r = 0
Y
X
Yi = a + b X i^
Y
XY
X
Y
XYi = a + b X i^ Yi = a + b X i^
Yi = a + b X i^
ode o de eg es o
r2= es el porcentaje de la variacion en yque es explicado por la
ecuacion de regresion lineAL
E C d ti M di (MSE)
Ecuaciones de Error de Pronosticos
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Error Cuadratico Medio (MSE)
Desviacion Media Absoluta(MAD)
Porcentaje de Error Absoluto Medio (MAPE)
2
n
1i
2ii
n
Pronosticodeerrores
n
)y(y
MSE
nn
yyMAD
n
i
ii |pronosticodeerrores|||
1
n
actualactual
100MAPE
n
1i i
ii
pronostico
Ejemplo de Seleccion de Modelode Pronostico
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Ud es un analista de mercado para Hasbro Toys. Usted ha pronosticado ventas conun modelo lineal y un modelo de suavizacion exponencial. Cual Modelo usaria?
Ventas Modelo Lineal Suavizacion
ExponencialAo Actuales Pronostico Pronostico (.9)
1998 1 0.6 1.01999 1 1.3 1.02000 2 2.0 1.92001 2 2.7 2.02002 4 3.4 3.8
Evaluacion Modelo Lineal^ 2 |Error|
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MSE = Error2 / n = 1.10/ 5 = 0.220
MAD = |Error| / n = 2.0/ 5 = 0.400
MAPE = 100 |porcent errores absolutos|/n= 1.20/5 = 0.240
Y i
1
1
2
24
Y i
0.6
1.3
2.0
2.73.4
Year
1998
1999
2000
20012002
Total
0.4
-0.3
0.0
-0.70.6
0.0
Error
0.16
0.09
0.00
0.490.36
1.10
Error2
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.70.6
2.0
|Error||Error|
Actual0.40
0.30
0.00
0.350.15
1.20
Evaluacion Modelo SuavizacionExponencial
^ |Error|
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MSE = Error2 / n = 0.05/ 5 = 0.01MAD = |Error| / n = 0.3/ 5 = 0.06
MAPE = 100 |Porcent.Errores absolutos|/n= 0.10/5 = 0.02
Year
1998
1999
2000
20012002
Total
Yi
1
1
2
24
Yi
1.0 0.0
1.0 0.0
1.9 0.1
2.0 0.03.8 0.2
0.3
^Error
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.000.04
0.05 0.3
Error2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.00.2
|Error||Error|Actual
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.000.05
0.10
Evaluacion modelo SuavizacionExponencial
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Modelo Lineall:
MSE = Error2 / n = 1.10 / 5 = .220
MAD = |Error| / n = 2.0 / 5 = .400
MAPE = 100 |porcent.Errores absolut|/n= 1.20/5 = 0.240
Modelo Suavizacion Exponencial:
MSE = Error2 / n = 0.05 / 5 = 0.01
MAD = |Error| / n = 0.3 / 5 = 0.06
MAPE = 100 |porcent.errores absolutos|/n= 0.10/5 = 0.02
Seal de Rastreo
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Medida de la Efectividad del pronostico, al
predecir los valores reales
Suma de los errores de los pronosticosCorrientes (RSFE) dividido entre la Desviacion
Media Absoluta (MAD)
Buenas seales de Rastreo tienen Bajos Valores
Deben estar dentro de los limites Superior eInferior
Equacion Seal de Rastreo
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MAD
pronosticodeerrores
1
MAD
yy
MAD
RSFE
TS
n
i
ii
Calculos de la Seal de Rastreo
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Mo Pron Real Error RSFE AbsError Cum MAD TS
1 100 90
2 100 95
3 100 115
4 100 100
5 100 125
6 100 140
|Error|
Calculos de la Seal de Rastreo
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Me Pron Real Error RSFE Abs
Error
Cum MAD TS
1 100 90
2 100 95
3 100 115
4 100 100
5 100 1256 100 140
-10
Error = Actual - Pronost= 90 - 100 = -10
|Error|
M P R l
E RSFE Ab
C MAD TS
Calculos de la Seal de Rastreo
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Me Pron Real Error RSFE Abs
Error
Cum MAD TS
1 100 90
2 100 95
3 100 115
4 100 100
5 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10
RSFE = Errores= NA + (-10) = -10
|Error|
M P R l
E RSFE Ab
C MAD TS
Calculos de la Seal de Rastreo
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Me Pron Real Error RSFE Abs
Error
Cum MAD TS
1 100 90
2 100 95
3 100 115
4 100 100
5 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10
Abs Error = |Error|= |-10| = 10
|Error|
Calculos de la Seal de Rastreo
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Me Pron Real Error RSFE Abs
Error
Cum MAD TS
1 100 90
2 100 95
3 100 115
4 100 100
5 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10
Cum |Error| = |Errores|= NA + 10 = 10
|Error|
Calculos de la Seal de Rastreo
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Me Pron Real Error RSFE AbsError
Cum|Error|
MAD TS
1 100 90
2 100 95
3 100 115
4 100 100
5 100 125
6 100 140
-10 -10 10 10 10.0
MAD = |Errores|/n= 10/1 = 10
Calculos de la Seal de Rastreo
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Me Pron Real Error RSFE Abs
Error
Cum MAD TS
1 100 90
2 100 95
3 100 115
4 100 100
5 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10 10.0 -1
TS = RSFE/MAD= -10/10 = -1
|Error|
M P R l
E RSFE Ab
C MAD TS
Calculos de la Seal de Rastreo
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Me Pron Real Error RSFE Abs
Error
Cum MAD TS
1 100 90
2 100 95
3 100 115
4 100 100
5 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10 10.0 -1
-5
Error = Actual - Pronostico= 95 - 100 = -5
|Error|
M P R l
E RSFE Ab
C MAD TS
Calculos de la Seal de Rastreo
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Me Pron Real Error RSFE Abs
Error
Cum MAD TS
1 100 90
2 100 95
3 100 115
4 100 100
5 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10 10.0 -1
-5 -15
RSFE = Errores= (-10) + (-5) = -15
|Error|
Me Pron Real
Error RSFE Abs
Cum MAD TS
Calculos de la Seal de Rastreo
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Me Pron Real Error RSFE Abs
Error
Cum MAD TS
1 100 90
2 100 95
3 100 115
4 100 100
5 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10 10.0 -1
-5 -15 5
Abs Error = |Error|= |-5| = 5
|Error|
Me Pron Real
Error RSFE Abs
Cum MAD TS
Calculos de la Seal de Rastreo
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Me Pron Real Error RSFE Abs
Error
Cum MAD TS
1 100 90
2 100 95
3 100 115
4 100 100
5 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10 10.0 -1
-5 -15 5 15
Cum Error = |Errores|= 10 + 5 = 15
|Error|
Me Pron Real
Error RSFE Abs
Cum MAD TS
Calculos de la Seal de Rastreo
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Me Pron Real Error RSFE Abs
Error
Cum MAD TS
1 100 90
2 100 95
3 100 115
4 100 100
5 100 1256 100 140
-10 -10 10 10 10.0 -1
-5 -15 5 15 7.5
MAD = |Errores|/n= 15/2 = 7.5
|Error|
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Impresion de Seales de Rastreo
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Tiempo
Limite inferior de control
Limite superior de
control
Seal excede el limite
Seal de Rastreo
Rango aceptable
+
0
-
Seales de Rastreo
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0
20
4060
80
100
120
140
160
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Tiempo
DemandaActual
Seal Rastreo
Pronostico
DEmanda Actual