Census  2010  Participation  Rates,  Results  for  Alaska,  and  Plans  for  the  2020  Census

Evan  Moffett,  Assistant  Division  ChiefGeographic  OperationsDecennial   Census  Management   DivisionU.S.  Census  Bureau

2016  Alaska  Native  Population  Data  ConferenceMay  12,  2016

Purpose  of  the  Decennial  Census

Looking  Back  -­‐ Participation  Rates

2020  Census  – New  Design  for  the  21st Century

2020  Census  in  Alaska

Looking  Ahead

Purpose  of  the  Decennial  Census

Purpose:To  conduct  a  census  of  population   and  housing  and  disseminate  the  results  to  the  President,  the  States,  and  the  American  People

Primary  Uses  of  Decennial  Census  Data:• Apportion   representation  among  states  as  mandated  by  Article  1,  Section  2  of  the  United  

States  Constitution:

• Draw  congressional  and  state  legislative  districts,  school  districts  and  voting  precincts• Enforce  voting  rights  and  civil  rights  legislation• Distribute  federal  dollars  to  states• Inform  federal,  tribal,  state,  and  local  government  planning  decisions• Inform  business  and  nonprofit  organization  decisions  (e.g.,  where  to  locate,  size  of  the  

market)• Provide  population  benchmark  for  nearly  every  other  United  States  survey

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Representatives  and  direct  Taxes  shall   be  apportioned   among   the  several  States  which  may  be  included   within   this  union,   according  to  their  respective  Numbers  …  The  actual  Enumeration  shall  be  made  within  three  Years  after  the  first  Meeting  of  the  Congress  of  the  United  States,  and  within   every  subsequent  Term  of  ten  years,  in  such  Manner  as  they  shall  by  Law  direct.

The  Decennial  Census

Looking  Back  – Participation  Rates

What  is  a  Participation  Rate?Percentage  of  questionnaires  mailed  back  by  households  that  received  them.  § Rates  exclude  households  who's  forms  were  returned  by  the  U.S.  Postal  

Service  as  “undeliverable.”§ For  households  that  did  not  receive  or  mail  back  a  questionnaire,  the  

Census  Bureau  followed  up  in  person  to  obtain  their  data.§ No  data  for  those  parts  of  Alaska  which  were  enumerated  via  Update  

Enumerate  methodology.

Participation  Rate  for  the  United  States

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The  Decennial  Census  – Participation  Rates

1990 2000 2010

65% 67% 72%

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The  Decennial  Census  – 2000  and  2010  Participation  Rates

Name 2000  – Percent 2010  – Percent

Alaska 67 64

Aleutians  East  Borough 34 46

Aleutians  West  Census  Area 50 48

Anchorage  Borough 73 73

Bethel  Census Area 53 49

Dillingham  Census Area 62 50

Fairbanks  North  Star  Borough 66 64

Haines  Borough 62 46

Juneau  City and  Borough 73 75

Kenai  Peninsula  Borough 56 52

Ketchikan  Gateway  Borough 67 70

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The  Decennial  Census  – 2000  and  2010  Participation  Rates

Name 2000  – Percent 2010  – Percent

Alaska 67 64

Hoonah-­‐Angoon 50 39

Kodiak Island  Borough 68 72

Matanuska-­‐Susitna  Borough 56 53

Nome  Census  Area 58 50

North  Slope  Borough 46 36

Northwest  Arctic  Borough 57 50

Sitka  City  and  Borough 73 63

Skagway  Municipality 59 41

Valdez-­‐Cordova  Census  Area 63 57

Yakutat  City  and  Borough 43 42

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The  Decennial  Census  – 2000  and  2010  Participation  Rates

Name 2000  – Percent 2010  – Percent

Alaska 67 64

Kusilvak N/A N/A

Yukon-­‐Koyukuk N/A N/A

Bristol Bay N/A N/A

Lake  and  Peninsula N/A N/A

Wrangell N/A N/A

Petersburg N/A N/A

Denali  Borough N/A N/A

Southeast Fairbanks  Census  Area N/A N/A

Prince  of  Wales  – Outer  Ketchikan  Gateway

N/A N/A

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The  Decennial  Census  – Type  of  Enumeration  Areas

Name 2000  – Percent 2010  – Percent

Alaska 67 64

Wade  Hampton N/A N/A

Yukon-­‐Koyukuk N/A N/A

Bristol Bay N/A N/A

Lake  and  Peninsula N/A N/A

Wrangell-­‐Petersburg N/A N/A

Prince  of  Wales  – Outer  Ketchikan  Gateway

N/A N/A

Denali  Borough N/A N/A

Southeast Fairbanks  Census  Area N/A N/A

2020  Census  – New  Design  for  the  21st Century

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The  2020  CensusA  New  Design  for  the  21st Century

Reduce  the  nationwide  In-­‐Field  Address  Canvassing  by  developing  innovative  methodologies  for  updating  and  maintaining  the  Census  Bureau’s  address  list  and  spatial  database  throughout   the  decade.

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In-­‐Office  Address  Canvassing

Continual  Research  and  UpdatingOngoing  Process  forIn-­‐Office  Canvassing

In-­‐Field  Address  Canvassing

Address  List  and  Spatial   Database

Where  Should  We  Start?

The  2020  Census:  Establish  Where  to  CountReengineering  Address  Canvassing

Generate  the   largest  possible  self-­‐response,  reducing  the  number  of  households   requiring  follow-­‐up.

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The  2020  Census:  Motivate  People  to  RespondOptimizing  Self-­‐Response

Use  information  people  have  already  provided  to  reduce  expensive  in-­‐person  follow-­‐up.

Reduce  Field  Workload  for  Followup   Activities

Remove  vacant  and  nonresponding  occupied  housing   units  from  theNonresponse   Followup workload

Optimize  the  number  of  contact  attempts

Validate  Respondent  Submissions

Validate  respondent   addresses   for  those  without  a  Census  ID  and  prevent  fraudulent  submissions

Increase  Effectiveness  of  Advertising   and  Contact  

Strategies

Support   the  micro-­‐targeted  advertising  campaign

Create  the  contact  frame(e.g.,  email  addresses   and  telephone  numbers)

Improve  the  Quality  of  the  Address   List

Update  the  address   listValidate  incoming  data  from  federal,  tribal,  state,  and  local  governments

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The  2020  Census:  Count  the  PopulationUtilizing  Administrative  Records  and  Third-­‐Party  Data

Use  technology  to  more  efficiently  and  effectively  manage  the  2020  Census  fieldwork.

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Streamlined  Office  and  Staffing  Structure

• Automated  and  optimized  work  assignments

• Automated  recruiting,  training,  payroll  and  expense  reporting

• Ability   to  conduct  address  updates  and  enumeration  on  same  device

• Reduced  paper  and  manual  processing

Area  Manager  of  Operations

Census  Field  Managers

Census  Field  Supervisors

Listers  and  Enumerators

Increased  use  of  Technology  

• Increased  visibility   into  case  status  for  improved  workforce  management

• Redesigned  quality  assurance  operations

• Improved  communications

Increased  Management  and  Staff  Productivity

The  2020  Census:  Count  the  PopulationReengineering  Field  Operations

2020  Census  in  Alaska

Establishing  Where  to  Count§ In-­‐Office  Address  Canvassing  =  100%  of  the  United  States§ In-­‐Field  Address  Canvassing  =  Up  to  25%  of  Addresses  § Local  Update  of  Census  Addresses  § Ongoing  Partnerships with  Local,  Tribal  and  State  Governments

Motivate  People  to  Respond§ Internet  Option§ Mail§ Telephone

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2020  Census  in  Alaska

Count  the  Population§ Self  Response  Options§ Nonresponse  Followup§ Update  Enumerate§ Remote  Alaska

Type  of  Enumeration  Areas§ Self  Response§ Update  Enumerate§ Remote  Alaska

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2020  Census  in  Alaska

Self  Response§ Send  mail  piece  encouraging  online  response§ If  no  response:

§ Recruit,  hire  and  train  local  staff§ Send  local  staff  to  every  nonresponding  housing  unit  (i.e.,  Nonresponse  

Followup)

Update  Enumerate§ Send  mail  piece  encouraging  online  response§ Recruit,  hire  and  train  local  staff  to:

§ Update  the  address  list§ Enumerate  the  household

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2020  Census  in  Alaska

Remote  Alaska§ Historically  conducted  in  the  outlying  areas  of  Alaska  in  Alaska  Native  

Villages.    We  use  the  Update  Enumerate  methodology.§ Managed  from  the  Anchorage  Local  Census  Office  (name  change  for  

2020).§ Process

§ Enumerators  canvass  each  census  block  to  update  the  address  list.    

§ Enumerators  will  add  housing  units  not  on  the  list.§ Enumerators  complete  a  Census  Questionnaire  for  each  address  

on  the  list.§ Historical  Timing

§ Data  collection  between  January  25,  2010  and  April  30,  2010.§ Occurs  in  waves  based  on  weather  conditions.  

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2020  Census  in  Alaska

Remote  Alaska§ Staffing:

§ Tribal  Community  Partnership  Specialist  § Recruiting  Assistants§ “Field  Supervisors”§ Enumerators

§ Pre-­‐Visits  to  Native  Villages§ Gather  information  used  during  enumeration

§ Provide  Tribal/Village  Leaders  with  procedural  information§ Confirm   lodging§ Confirm  meeting  space

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2020  Census  in  Alaska

Remote  Alaska§ Training

§ 2010  =  Classroom/On  the  Job§ 2020  =  TBD

§ Enumeration§ 2010  =  Paper  Address  List  and  Questionnaires§ 2020  =  Automated  Address  List  and  Questionnaires

Ø Tribal  Leader/Representative  =  Final  Housing  Unit  Count  Reconciliation

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2020  Census  in  Alaska

Remote  Alaska§ Lessons  Learned

§ Redesign  our  Group  Quarters  Enumeration  methods§ Automation  will  alleviate  some  logistical  challenges§ Reevaluate  approach  to  training

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2020  Census  in  Alaska

Looking  Ahead

The  2020  CensusThe  2020  Census  Key  Upcoming  Activities

2016  Census  Test  (April  1st Census  Day)Address  Canvassing  TestBoundary  and  Annexation  Survey – Governmental  entities  receive  their  annual  invitation  to  update  their  legal  boundariesAward  Contract   for  the  2020  Census  Questionnaire   Assistance  (CQA)Award  Integrated  Communications  Contract

2017  Census  Test  (April  1st Census  Day)Topics  to  Congress – by  March  31,  2017Local  Update  of  Census  Addresses  – Invitations  sent  to  governmental  entities  to  participate  in  review  of  our  Master  Address  File  and  is  complete  in  2018

2018  End-­‐to-­‐End   Test  (April  1st Census  Day)Question  Wording   to  Congress – by  March  31,  2018.

Partnership   Program – Launch  of  the  partnership  programComplete  Count  Committees – Formation  of  committee’s  should  be  complete

Advertising – Begins  in  early  2020Census  Day – April  1,  2020Nonresponse   Followup – Begins  in  late  April  and  continues  until  late  June/early  JulyApportionment   Counts   to  the  President – by  December  31,  2020

Redistricting  Counts   to  the  States – by  March  31,  2021

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More  information  on  the  2020  Census  Memorandum  Series:http://www.census.gov/programs-­‐surveys/decennial-­‐census/2020-­‐census/planning-­‐management/memo-­‐series.html

More  information  on  the  2020  Census:http://www.census.gov/2020Census

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