4. Integrated Demand Forecast Objectives · 4. Integrated Demand Forecast Annual Growth Rate...
Transcript of 4. Integrated Demand Forecast Objectives · 4. Integrated Demand Forecast Annual Growth Rate...
4. Integrated Demand Forecast
Objectives
Transnet, as the custodian of ports, rail and pipelines has a responsibility to ensure availability of economic infrastructure in an
efficient and cost effective manner
Creating capacity ahead of demand is one of the primary objectives of the organisation
efficient and cost effective manner
the organisation
Most developed countries have processes in place whereby flow data is collected
T t b k d t d t d t d f tTransnet embarked on a process to understand current and future demand in November 2005
The resulting Transnet Demand Model is a significant improvement on i f ti th dprevious forecasting methods
The Demand Model forms the basis for the NIP and all long term planning in Transnet
Slide 12July 2009 Source: Transnet Group Planning
4. Integrated Demand Forecast
Demand Model Methodology
Step 1 Step 2
The approach is modelling intensive but risk is mitigated through stringent verification procedures
Actual data – based on publications and personal interviews
Verify with: • Known flows• Rail data• National freight flow model
Step 1 Step 2
National I-O model
Apportionment -Geographical Supply
and demand per commodity
Allocation - Flows per commodityMacro-economic
data
Consolidation of data into corridor and
rural flows
Macro-economic forecast
Commodity forecasts
Overlay onto Transportation modelp
• Measuring all flows over 352 magisterial districts with 65 commodities in tons and ton-kms – with 30 year forecasts and scenarios
Slide 13July 2009
ton-kms – with 30 year forecasts and scenarios
• Further risk mitigation through employing multiple sets of forecasts
Source: Transnet Group Planning
4. Integrated Demand ForecastCorridor Freight Distribution
Corridor Rail volume handled**Mt handled FY07
RBayCor 95.5
Port volume Mt, FY07
(Richards Bay)
’ i i iSishen-Saldanha
CapeCor
Sentra hub
NatCor
39.6
18.8
40.1
17 2
(Saldanha)
(Cape Town)
(Durban***)
Transnet’s activities are concentrated mainly in four ports and five land corridors
NatCor
Freestate
EastCor
NorthCor
17.2
15.1
17.1
13.2
(Durban )
NWestCor
SouthCor
WestCor
(Port Elizabeth*)
NEastCor
SEastCor
NamibiaCor ~0
(East London)
Slide 14July 2009 Source: Transnet Freight Demand Model 2007
Freight demand in South Africa is very concentrated
4. Integrated Demand Forecast
Annual Growth Rate Forecast per Package Type (Feb 2009)
*Dotted lines reflect the forecast Dotted lines reflect the forecast (2008) before the economic meltdown
*
Slide 15July 2009 Source: Transnet Freight Demand Model February 2009
4. Integrated Demand Forecast
Freight Supply Density (Production Areas)
Freight Supply Density (Production Areas)
Freight Demand Density (Consumption Areas)
Freight Demand Density (Consumption Areas)
Surface Flow Density
(Production Areas)(Production Areas) (Consumption Areas)(Consumption Areas)
200
7
200
7
2 2
37 37
Slide 16June 2009 Total Surface Freight Density based on: Mining; Manufacturing; Agricultural; Population; Wealth
203
203
4. Integrated Demand Forecast
Surface Flow Density (All Modes)
Mtpa 2007Mtpa 2007 Mtpa 2037Mtpa 2037
Slide 17July 2009 Source: Transnet Freight Demand Model