4 Country Project

Mary McNally, M.Sc..Department of Psychology

University of Waterloo

ITC-TTURC Project Annual MeetingPortland, Oregon—March 1, 2008

2

4 Country ResearchTeam

Canada Geoffrey T. Fong Mary E. Thompson David Hammond Christian Boudreau Mark P. Zanna K. Stephen Brown Sharon Campbell Paul W. McDonald

United States K. Michael Cummings Andrew Hyland Richard J. O’Connor Maansi Travers Gary A. Giovino Frank J. Chaloupka Fritz L. Laux Hana Ross Mohammad Siahpush

Australia Ron Borland Melanie Wakefield Hua Yong David Young

United Kingdom Gerard Hastings Ann McNeill Louise Hassan Anne Marie Mackintosh Fiona Harris

4 Country: Population

Australia Canada U.K. U.S.

million 20.4 33.2 60.8 303.5

Population

4 Country : Prevalence

Australia (2005)

Canada (2006)

U.K. (2002)

U.S. (2005)

Male 26.2 15.3 27.0 20.7

Female 20.4 11.8 25.0 15.5

Overall 23.3 13.5 26.0 18.0

Adult Prevalence (%)

Source: Country National Surveys – DAILY SMOKERS, except Australia - CURRENT

Age: Australia: 18+, Canada: 15+, UK: 16+, US 18+

4 Country: Tobacco Industry

Australia Canada U.K. U.S. % land 0.01 0.06 / 0.15

Export 4,000 1,600 2 148,261

Import 1,600 396 45,018 15,064Workers 1,569 4,600 6,450 27,300

Tobacco Industry

•% agricultural land devoted to tobacco farming• cigarette exports – millions• cigarette imports - millions• workers in tobacco manufacturing

4 Country: FCTC Status

Australia Canada U.K. U.S.

Signed Dec-03 Jul-03 Jun-03 May-03

Ratified Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04

FCTC Status

4 Country: Price and Taxation

Australia Canada U.K. U.S.

% 53 20 63 10

National Level Tax

Australia Canada U.K. U.S.20

cigarettes $6.52 $6.71 $8.68 $3.89

International Dollars

International Dollars

Wave 6 Summary

Wave 5

2-May 13-Jun

5-Jul 26-Jul

14-Aug 2-Oct

23-Aug 29-Aug

10-Sep 2-Oct

12-Sep 10-Oct

21-Sep 11-Oct

7-Nov 7-Nov

8-Nov 15-Nov

13-Feb 13-Feb

Replenishment interviews start

Fieldwork Completed

Contract with RMR signed, 1st invoice paid

Recrutiment and Replenishment surveys sent to RMR

Recontact letters sent out

Sign off on M6

Survey fieldwork begins (1 week behind schedule)

Recruitment calls start

Wave 6 Survey Development and Fieldwork

Initial teleconference to develop Wave 6 Survey

M6 (Recontact survey) sent to RMR for programming

Wave 6 Summary

Summary as at 13 February 2008Total Canada USA UK Australia Total

Successful recontacts to date 1457 1290 1478 1628 5853

Retention rate to date (as % of sample attempted) 72% 63% 73% 76% 71%

Recruitment interviews to date 765 1090 726 644 3225

Replenishment interviews to date 556 712 529 541 2338

Total long interviews to date 2013 2002 2007 2169 8191

Wave 6 Data

DMC will need 1 month to clean, compute derived variables, and compute sampling weights. Therefore Wave 6 data should be posted on IGLOO (in SPSS, SAS, Stata) by the end of April 2008.

Wave 5

22-Feb

27-Feb

28-Feb

6-Mar

7-Mar

11-Mar

14-Mar

20-Mar

TBA

SPSS Data P6_COM

SPSS Data P6_RES

Statistical Report/Disposition Codes

Call Log files Wave 6

Contact Database

Call Log files from previous waves

Wave 6 Data Retrieval Schedule from RMR

Cleaned Topline Report

SPSS Data M6_COM

SPSS Data M6_RES

Waves 1- 6 Attrition

Wave 6 Funding

$1,094,913Amount CAD AUD

460,000 USD 488,685

269,863 USD 292,228

30,900 £ 64,509

30,000 AUD 27,000

107,670

980,092 $1,094,913

Other CIHR

Cost for Wave 6 $980,092

TOTAL

Wave 6 Funding

W6 Funding Source

DMC TTURC Year 4

R01 CA100362 Year 3

CRUK

NHMRH

Funding Waves 7 - 12

Challenges: Funding

• Need approximately $1 million per wave

• Wave 7 – last year of TTURC funds (to DMC) = $226,750

• Wave 8 – CIHR funds = $521,536

• R01 Submission – requesting 30% of field work costs for Waves 7 – 12

• CRUK and NHMRC

Research Objectives Waves 7 - 12

• Long-term evaluation of policies • Canada revision of warnings (2010?)• FDA regulation in the U.S.• Other initiatives in the U.S.??• Important comparisons with LMICs:

– Malaysia– Thailand– China– Bangladesh (start Fall 2008?)– Sudan (start Fall 2008?)

Waves 1- 6 Attrition

Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Wave 6

Initial Cohort N=9058 → N=6764 → N=4706 → N=3542 → N=2594 → N=2008

₊ ₊ ₊ ₊ ₊1st Replenishment N=1714 → N=1121 → N=759 → N=550 → N=418

₊ ₊ ₊ ₊2nd Replenishment N=2552 → N=1678 → N=1158 → N=871

₊ ₊ ₊3rd Replenishment N=2126 → N=1303 → N=922

₊ ₊4th Replenishment N=2638 → N=1648

₊5th Replenishment N=2331

↓

TOTAL N=9058 N=8478 N=8379 N=8105 N=8243 N=8198