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Environmental Scanning: what it is and how to do it

Environmental Scanning: what it is and how to do it

Maree ConwayThinking Futures

….using futures approaches to integrate strategic thinking into strategy development and planning

• What ES is and why do it

• ES and strategy

• Getting started with ES

• Back to work

• What’s your definition of environmental scanning?

• ES is the art of systematically exploring and interpreting the external environment,

• to better understand the nature of trends and deep drivers of change

• and their likely future impact on your organisation.

• Environmental Scanning (ES) is the foundation for high quality strategic thinking…

• Environmental Scanning (ES) is the foundation for high quality strategic thinking…

• …that informs the development of futures ready strategy for an organisation.

• Futures ready strategy is flexible strategy that readies an organisation to respond to the challenges of the future.

Quick Survey

How many of you have formal scanning systems operational in your organisations?

Why a Scanning System?

• To strengthen the quality of the thinking that goes into your strategy development

• To let you understand what’s coming and what’s changing and what it means for you

• To give you enough time to prepare and be proactive

• To give you a competitive edge• To move you beyond busy - out of crisis

management mode

Strategic ThinkingWhat might happen in

the future?

Generating Options

Strategic Decision Making Where will go in the

future?Making Decisions

Strategic PlanningWhat will we do today? Taking Action

Environmental ScanningWhat can we see today?

Seeking Information

• Current strategy processes tend to focus on the plan as the major outcome, rather than a shared understanding of your organisation’s preferred future to inform action today.

Improvement action identified/changes to

plans identified

Making VU 2016: A Statement of

PurposeStrategic vision and objectives

University Priorities2008-2010

Outcomes & Strategies to implement

Unit Strategic Plans2008-2010

Faculties, Schools& Service areas

Implementation of University Priority strategies

Internal & External Planning Inputs

Ongoing environmental scanning

•Educational & societal trends•Government policy drivers•Legislation•University cross-sectoral strategies•Other University Plans (eg OHS, Disability, Staff Equity etc)

SPDP: individual Staff Plans

Quality Improvement Reviews (QIRs)

Approval of operational plansReview of current year’s

performance

Reviewed each year in first half

of year

Reviewed and updated in

August/September; finalised following QIRs in November

Held in November each year

University Budget ProcessIterative process to align

budgets and plansBudget sign-off at end

SeptemberQuarterly Budget Reviews

Department Plans

Current until 2016

QIR Inputs Organisational Unit QIR

PortfoliosFaculty Review OutcomesAnnual Course Reporting

Course ReviewSubject Evaluation Outcomes

AQTF outcomesAUQA Follow up

Think tomorrow is going to be more of today

Can’t cope with the unexpected

Usually don’t explore the long term future

Prefer quantitative over qualitative information

Don’t challenge assumptions

Downplay or dismiss staff beliefs, hopes and fears about the future

• While the need for planning has never been greater, the relevance of most of today’s planning systems and tools is increasingly marginal (Fuller, 2003).

• It may well be that the typical strategic planning exercise now conducted on a regular and formal basis and infused with quantitative data misses the essence of the concept of strategy and what is involved in thinking strategically (Sidorowicz, 2000).

• A major assumption of the strategic planning literature … is that all of these terms [strategy, planning] necessarily go together. [That is] Strategy formation is a planning process, designed or supported by planners, to plan in order to produce plans” (Mintzberg, 1994).

• Current strategy processes live in the pragmatic futures realm.

• Working within the existing paradigm, making it better, but not challenging it.

• We call it ‘strategic planning’.

• Beyond strategic planning – to strategy development and implementation.

• Moving into the progressive futures realm, where we challenge the current paradigm and re-interpret how we do business to meet the challenges of the future.

Moving from pragmatic to progressive approaches requires a strong focus on building a high quality strategic thinking capacity in your organisation.

We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.

...because what works today will probably not work for those who follow you in the future...

• If you don’t spend the time to improve the quality of the thinking that goes into your strategic decisions, then you will get superficial, limited and ultimately useless strategy.

So how do we get started with environmental scanning?

BIGDEEPLONG

BIG

Take a big picture, systems perspective…our micro-decisions coalesce to create global futures

DEEP

Our assumptions encase us in the past.

We all have blind spots that cause us to miss important information.

LONG

Today FutureTIME

UNCERTAINTY

Linear Future

Low

High

The linear future is the one we believe to be true, usually based on untested assumptions

Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)

Trend

Today FutureTIME

UNCERTAINTY

Linear Future

Low

High

Possible Futures

Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)

Trend

Today FutureTIME

UNCERTAINTY

Linear Future

Low

High

Possible Futures

Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)

Trend

The Scanning Process

Adapted from K. van der Heijden

IndustryEnvironment

Social Environment

Suppliers

Clients

Competitors

Organisation

Driving Forces

Driving Forces

Factors / Trends Issues / ForcesSocialTechnologicalEconomicEcologicalPolitical…

Customers

Members of Wider Society

The External Environment

Organisation

Industry

Learning

EducationalGaming

Funding

Engagement

Online

Sustainability

VocationalImperative

StudentsSuppliers

Stakeholders

Organisation

Global

Industry

Technology

Lifestyle

Values

Politics

Economy

Environment

Demographics &generational change

Learning

EducationalGaming

Funding

Engagement

Online

Sustainability

VocationalImperative

Globalisation

Organisation

Global

Industry

Technology

Lifestyle

Values

Politics

Economy

Environment

Demographics &generational change

Learning

Educational Gaming

Funding

Engagement

Online

Sustainability

VocationalImperative

GlobalisationWildcard

Wildcard

Wildcard

Wildcard

Things Happening

Trend(grouping of events)

Driver(moves trends in certain directions, broad

in scope and long term in nature)

Trend(grouping of events)

Driver(moves trends in certain directions, broad

in scope and long term in nature)

When you start scanning, you will find lots of things happening

Things Happening

Trend(grouping of events)

Driver(moves trends in certain directions, broad

in scope and long term in nature)

Gradually, you will be able to group similar ‘hits’ into broader categories – trends.

Things Happening

But it might still feel like this – a bit of a maze to try and work your way through…

Trend(grouping of events)

Driver(moves trends in certain directions, broad

in scope and long term in nature)

What we are really interested in exploring is what is driving these trends.

Things Happening

And this is where the connections between the trends will surface and it will start to make sense.

Who Scans?

Scanning is not a solitary activity…

Where to Look?

Emerging Issues

Trends

Mainstream

Time

Number of cases; degree of public awareness

Few cases, local focus

Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers

InnovatorsEarly adopters

Late Adopters

Late Majority

Laggards

Today

Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Emerging Issues

Trends

Mainstream

Time

Number of cases; degree of public awareness

Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics

Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs

Government Institutions

Few cases, local focus

Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers

InnovatorsEarly adopters

Late Adopters

Late Majority

Laggards

Today

Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Emerging Issues

Trends

Mainstream

Time

Number of cases; degree of public awareness

Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics

Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs

Government Institutions

Few cases, local focus

Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers

InnovatorsEarly adopters

Late Adopters

Late Majority

Laggards

Today

Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

Most scanning takes place here

Emerging Issues

Trends

Mainstream

Time

Number of cases; degree of public awareness

Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics

Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals,blogs

Government Institutions

Few cases, local focus

Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers

InnovatorsEarly adopters

Late Adopters

Late Majority

Laggards

Today

Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

But we need to look on the fringe as well

• Newspapers, twitter, websites, blogs, wikis, podcasts, videos, news sites, newsletter, magazines, books, book reviews, presentations, reports, surveys, interviews, seminars, chat rooms, trend observers, advertisers, philosophers sociologists, management gurus, consultants, researchers, experts, universities.

Where to look…

Shaping Tomorrow

• If you’re looking for new ideas that don’t yet exist, don’t talk to normal people because they’re just consuming what is available today – find the weirdos and see what they are doing, what they’re making on their own, and say gee – is there something I can mainstream from this?

Tom Kelly

Founder, Ideo

Whatever takes you away from conventional thinking…

Trends

Emerging Issues

The weird and unimaginable

• Shaping Tomorrow• Trendwatching• Brain Reserve• Now and Next• The Tomorrow Project• Strategic Business Insights• Arlington Institute

Some Scanning Sites

• What is happening today with your issue?

• What are other people saying about its evolution over time? How credible are they?

Looking for…

• Don’t dismiss the outliers…

• New, first• Idea

• Change• Surprise

• Opportunity• Threat

• Diversity of perspectives

Looking for…

• Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and that has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation.

Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures 2004

Looking for…

• What are the major driving forces?• What big surprises are on the horizon?• What are possible discontinuities

(wildcards)?• What are the sources of inspiration and

hope?

As you scan…

Richard Slaughter, Foresight International

• If you think …‘that’s rubbish’, stop.• First, ask why do I think it’s rubbish?• Second, take another look.• Third, ask what would enable you to

accept it as possible? Scan to see if that is happening.

As you scan…

Classifying Hits

Social

Technological

Economic

Environmental

Political

STEEP or add in Values to make it VERY STEEP (VSTEEP)*

*Marcus Barber, Looking Up, Feeling Good

When is a hit useful?

• Does the hit help you understand your issue?

• Does the hit identify a new way of seeing the issue?

• Does the hit help you to explore trends and their potential impacts?

Shaping Tomorrow

• Does the hit aim to identify and assess possible future threats and opportunities, including radical alternatives?

• Does the hit challenge existing assumptions underpinning current polices and practice?

Shaping Tomorrow

• Ultimately, you need to trust your intuition – your expertise, knowledge and insight is the best gauge of usefulness.

• But, remember your blind spots!

Recording and Sharing Hits

• Title• Summary• Source and date published• Initial assessment of implications• Tag/VSTEEP category

What to Record

• For example (taken from SCAN, a publication by Strategic Business Insights)

 • 2009-01-03 Streaming Video and Security (Information

Week Daily 26 November 2001), describes the shift of Packet Video (a developer of video streaming technology) from consumer to security applications. The company’s technology could provide live feeds from the cockpits of hijacked planes.

http://www.shapingtomorrow.com

Reporting Your Findings

• A snapshot report of the external environment.

• A background paper for the strategic planning cycle.

• Regular trend reports on single trends.• More detailed quarterly reports on

implications of trends and drivers.• Quick snippets about what you are finding.• Rating the hits – staff involvement.• In all cases, add in trigger questions to

prompt discussion/conversation.

• What impact might it have on your industry today and in the future?

• What might be the implications for your organisation?

• How might you respond?

• How, and in what ways, could this information be relevant to my organisation?

Strategic ThinkingWhat might happen in

the future?

Generating Options

Strategic Decision Making Where will go in the

future?Making Decisions

Strategic PlanningWhat will we do today? Taking Action

Environmental ScanningWhat can we see today?

Seeking Information

Reporting Template Examples

Back to Work

• Never underestimate your influence.

• Make it part of your deliverables.

• Look for ‘friendlies’.

• Start local.

Andy Hines, An Audit for Organizational Futurists: 10 Questions Every Organizational Futurist Should be Able to Answer, 2003

Have good organisational diagnostics: can smell the cheese, but will jump ship.

Get it, and can use the system – very rare.

Don’t bother – they are waiting for you to fail! They will follow

you blindly – just like lemmings!

Long term

Uncertain

Divergent

Incomplete

Beyond linear

Disruption

Challenges: Info Overload

Challenges: Stretching Your Thinking

Challenges: Finding the Time

Unconscious

Implicit

Solitary

Organisational Scanning

Conscious

Explicit

Collective

Individual Scanning

• The aim of scanning work is to provide robust information that strengthens your understanding of your organisation’s long term context…

• …to enable you to make wise

strategic decisions today.

We do scanning to avoid having this perspective on the future…

Enjoy your scanning!

• Download Building Strategic Futures Guides:– Getting Started with Futures– Environmental Scanning

http://thinkingfutures.net/resources/building-strategic-futures-guides/

Contact Details

Maree Conwayhttp://www.thinkingfutures.net

maree.conway@thinkingfutures.net

Tel: + 61 3 9016 9506Mobile: + 61 425 770 181

Skype: mkconway1

Shaping Tomorrowhttp://www.shapingtomorrow.com

Foresight Networkhttp://shapingtomorrowmain.ning.com

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