3Q2019 RESULTS BRIEFING...

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12 NOVEMBER 2019 3Q2019 RESULTS BRIEFING PRESENTATION

Transcript of 3Q2019 RESULTS BRIEFING...

Page 1: 3Q2019 RESULTS BRIEFING PRESENTATIONaav.listedcompany.com/misc/PRES/20191112-aav-results...2019/11/12  · RESULTS BRIEFING PRESENTATION The presentation is dated the day it is given.

12 NOVEMBER 2019

3Q2019

RESULTS BRIEFING

PRESENTATION

Page 2: 3Q2019 RESULTS BRIEFING PRESENTATIONaav.listedcompany.com/misc/PRES/20191112-aav-results...2019/11/12  · RESULTS BRIEFING PRESENTATION The presentation is dated the day it is given.

The presentation is dated the day it is given. The delivery of this presentation shall not,under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in theaffairs of the Company since such date. The third party information and statistical data inthis presentation have been obtained from sources the Company believes to be reliablebut in no way are warranted by the Company as to accuracy or completeness. Thispresentation may not contain all material information concerning the Company and theinformation set forth in this material is subject to change without notice.

These materials included herein that are not historical facts are forward-lookingstatements. Such forward looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertaintiesand are subject to change at any time. In the event such risks or uncertainties materialize,AAV’s results could be materially affected. The risks and uncertainties include, but are notlimited to, risks associated with the inherent uncertainty of airline travel, seasonalityissues, volatile jet fuel prices, world terrorism, perceived safe destination for travel,Government regulation changes and approval, including but not limited to the expectedlanding rights into new destinations.

This presentation is strictly not to be distributed without the explicit consent ofCompany’s management under any circumstances.

DISCLAIMER

1

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THAILAND MARKET

2

31% 30%

North America

36% 36%

Europe

51%

55%

South Asia

48%49%

SE Asia

LCC penetration 1

52% 52%

Thailand

2018 2019

CHINA

Grew 2% YoY and 29% contribution

ASEAN

Grew 5% YoY and 26% contribution

EUROPE

Edged down 2% YoY and 16% contribution

SOUTH ASIA

OVERALL

9M19 visitors grew 4% YoY to 29.5 million

E.Asia 70%

EU 16%

S.Asia 6%

US 4%Others 4%

292

million

Tourists from China grew 17% YoY with 23% YoY jumps in arrival from India in 3Q2019

Grew 21% YoY and 6% contribution

EXPECTED OVER 40 MILLION VISITORS IN 2019 OR 5% YOY

1 source: CAPA 2 source: Ministry of Tourism and Sport

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KEY DEVELOPMENTS 3Q2019

5.28 millionPassengers grew 3%on the back of an 3% capacity growth

First-time-ever listing on the Thailand Sustainability Investment

(THSI) index of SET

Transferred call center services to AVA, AirAsia’s AI-powered

and 24/7 automated chat system

Average fare was at Baht 1,457 per pax up 3%, particularly

domestic routes, from the decelerated capacity growth.

Ancillaries were Baht 1,741 million up 2%, mainly from an increase in revenues of seat selection and connecting flight.

ASK rose 10% as launching several international routes

CASK was 1.49 Baht down 7% YoY. Fuel per ASK was 0.51 Baht

down 18%, while CASK ex-fuel was 0.98 Baht unchanged YoY

TAA & AAV revealed net loss of Baht 761 million and Baht 417million, respectively

TAA net gearing was at 2.69x with a cash of Baht 2.5 billion

KEY UPDATE

CORE REVENUES

KEY PERFORMANCE

88%81% 12.2hrs

Load Factor On-Time Utilisation

58%3.05 mil (-3%)

42%2.23 mil (+13%)

Domestic International

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9,307 9,661

3Q18 3Q19

1,213 1,247

3Q18 3Q19

3Q18 3Q19

TAA NET LOSS BEFORE FXEBITDARREVENUE

• Revenue from sales and services recorded 4% YoY at Baht 9.42 billion due to;• Average fare rose by 3% to Baht 1,457 per passenger, particularly domestic routes• 3% increase in the number of passengers carried to achieve at 5.3 million, particularly international route passengers

• EBITDAR up by 3% to Baht 1.25 billion with a margin of 13.2%;• Fuel costs dropped by 9% along with a 13% decrease in fuel price, despite a 9% rise in the fuel consumption

• Net Loss before FX recorded at Baht 681million, on the back of;• Income tax expense amounted to Baht 77 million, reversed from income tax revenue of Baht 67 million in Q3/2018,

as a result of the carryforward of unused-tax credits from the past periods• Loss on exchange of Baht 80 million, reversed from gain on exchange of Baht 104 million in Q3/2018 from the par

forward foreign exchange contract

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHT 3Q2019

Unit: million Baht

(760)

(681)

4%

10%

3%

- Unused Tax Credit

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ASK

20,542+11% YoY

RASK

1.47-7% YoY

CASK

1.53-3% YoY

CASK EX-FUEL

1.00Unchanged YoY

Bahtmillion Baht Baht

TOTAL REVENUES

31,2193% YoY

EBITDAR

5,127-16% YoY

TAA NET LOSS

737->100% YoY

AAV NET LOSS

402->100% YoY

million Bahtmillion Baht million Baht million Baht

PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS 9M2019

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• Total revenues increased mainly due to an increase in ancillary revenues and number passengers, despite lower average fares primarily from the international market.

• ASK up by 11% YoY due to the international route expansion, despite a decrease in RASK of 7% .• CASK decreased by 3% YoY as a result of a 9% decrease in fuel per ASK. CASK ex-fuel unchanged due to the

cost containment, although there was the recognition of the additional long-term employee benefit liabilities of Baht 111 million.

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ANCILLARY PERFORMANCE

ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE 2019 BT 343 PER PAX (+4%YoY)

3Q19 achieved 1,7bn (+2%YoY) or Bt 329 per pax (-2%YoY) 6

1,7

15

1,7

41

FLY-THRU

• 3Q19 up by 53% from additional flights among AOCs, reflected in a 41% growth in traffics

• No. Fly-Thru accounted for 7% of total pax

CHECKED BAGGAGE

• 3Q19 edge down by 1% YoY, relating to lower western visitors and growth in OTA channel

IN-FLIGHT SERVICES

• Continue promoting pre-book In-flight combo set• Enhance house-brand on F&B and merchandise.

SEAT SELECTION

• 3Q19 up by 17% YoY, relating to an expansion in international route

• Persuasive advertising influences demand on Value

Pack and seat

OTHERS (Cargo, Tune, Fees)

• Fee structure adjustment; processing fee• Fly-Thru lounge access

18.5%

Revenues 49%

9%

8%

6%

28%

3Q18 3Q19

+2%YoY

Percent contribution to total ancillary revenue

Un

it :

Mill

ion

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MARKET SHARE1 BY PAX FLOWN65%

13

23

33.4%

18.3%16.2%

9.4%6.9%

10.0%5.8%

32.4%

18.1% 18.1%

9.3%7.3%

9.7%4.9%

6M2019 FY2018

Note: 1 6M2019 compared to FY2018 (Source: AAV, AOT and Department of Airport)2 Capacity share as of FY2019 (source : OAG)3 As of August 15 2019

DOMESTIC MARKET

Regional Capacity2

Unique Routes3

CitiesAirAsia Nok Lion Smile Thai Bangkok Vietjet

21Transfer Routes

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27.24

48.38 49.55 47.51

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

THAILAND DOMESTIC CAPACITY

(source : OAG)

Peers

Unit : million

Thai Lion Air67%

Thai Airways Group 18%

Nok Air 9%

Bangkok Airways 5%Thai VietJet 1%

Hubs

RE

DU

CT

ION

Competitors have decreased its

capacity by 1.8 million seats, particularly DMK hub.

Thailand domestic market capacity over the past 5-year had grown by 15%,resulting in intense competition and the price war. Recently, the market has a more rational environment, reflected in a 4% decline in capacity.

BKKDMK

DECELERATED GROWTH SPUR THE AVERAGE FARE

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NETWORK REALLOCATION TO MAXIMISE OPERATIONAL RETURNS

* JUL 2019 – OCT 2019** WINTER SEASON*** DEC 2019 – JAN 2020

CNX – DanangDMK – Nha TrangDMK – Can ThoCEI – ShenzhenCNX – ShenzhenDMK – AhmedabadHKT – Phnom Penh

DMK – Narathiwat(7x > 11x)*

DMK – Jaipur (4x > 7x)**DMK – Nan(28x > 31x)***

DMK – Sihanoukville

DMK – VaranasiCEI – Hangzhou

ADD FREQUENCIES: NEW ROUTES:

2Q

/20

19

3Q

/20

19

4Q

/20

19

DMK – Roi EtDMK – Khon KeanDMK – ShenzhenCNX – Taipei (6x > 7x)

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Fuel costs in 3Q19 dropped by 9% along with a 13% decrease in fuel price and favourable exchange rate, despite a 9% rise in the fuel consumption.

TAA has hedged 86 and 73% of Brent at an effective cost of Jet at $75.6/bbl for 4Q2019 and FY2020, respectively.

34% Fuel Costs

16% Staff Costs

13% Aircraft and Aircraft Engine Rental

9% Repair and Maintenance

12% Ramp and Airport Operation

5% Selling and Administrative

11% Other costs

3Q19

UNIT COSTS : ON TRACK TO BEAT FY2019 PLAN

0.62 0.51

0.980.98

3Q2018 3Q2019

1.60 1.49

Un

it :

Ba

ht -7%

FUEL

EX-FUEL

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GROWTH

COSTS

COMMERCIAL

• FY2019 capacity growth expected between 5 and 6% driven by disciplined network expansion

• First A321neo delivered in December and entry to service during 1Q/2020

• ASK growth in 2019 between 10 and 11% on the back of international route expansion

• Passengers to achieve at 22.5 million on due to waiving VOA fees till 30 Apr 2020 and other tourism measures;

expect to achieve at 86% of load factor

• On track to achieve 2019 goal; CASK guidance narrowed to -2.0 to 0.0% ; CASK ex-fuel unchanged

• Maintain a cost advantage over competitors, even under the same or different business models

• Cost initiative; transferred call centre services to AVA with 24/7 automated chat system

• Taking immediate capacity actions to address near-term RASK weakness, driven by some new routes taking

longer than usual to mature; network reallocation continues to ramp during the peak seasons

• Maintaining its favourable operating performance (OTP) to more than 85%; which is key in positive brand

awareness

• On track to deliver ancillary revenue; engaging in dynamic pricing of its products & adding a bundled products

• Maintain the goal to ensure that our guests feel like they get the great value from the company’s low fare

COMPANY GUIDANCE

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RELEVANT MATERIALShttps://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/home

DOCUMENT LOCATION

Investor Presentation

https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/downloads/presentations-webcasts

EarningReleases

https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/updates/news

Annual Reports

https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/downloads/annual-report

Investor Kits

https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/publications-and-download/investor-kits

Operating Statistic

https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/operating-statistics

SustainabilityReport

https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/downloads/sustainability-report

Don Mueang International Airport, 3rd Fl., Central Office Building, No.3200,Vibhavadi Rangsit Road, Sanambin, Don Mueang, Bangkok 10210

www.aavplc.com [email protected] +662 5625745-6

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TAA : KEY STATISTICS

3Q2019 3Q2018 Change 9M2019 9M2018 Change

Passenger carried (Million seats) 5.28 5.12 3% 16.73 16.07 4%

International passenger 2.23 1.97 13% 6.90 6.03 14%

Domestic passenger 3.05 3.15 -3% 9.82 10.04 -2%

Capacity (Million seats) 6.55 6.34 3% 19.81 18.84 5%

Load factor 81% 81% 0 ppt 84% 85% -1 ppt

RPK (Million) 5,444 4,979 9% 17,237 15,791 9%

ASK (Million) 6,766 6,167 10% 20,542 18,559 11%

No. of stages flown 36,253 35,105 3% 109,678 104,382 5%

Average stage length (km) 1,034 972 6% 1,037 985 5%

Fleet size (Aircraft) 62 60 +2 62 60 +2

Aircraft utilisation (Hours/day) 12.2 11.7 +0.5 12.4 12.0 +0.4

On time performance 88% 89% -1 ppt 86% 85% +1 ppt

Average fare (Baht) 1,457 1,418 +3% 1,469 1,499 -2%

RASK (Baht) 1.39 1.45 -4% 1.47 1.58 -7%

CASK (Baht) 1.49 1.60 -7% 1.53 1.57 -3%

CASK ex-fuel (Baht) 0.98 0.98 0% 1.00 1.00 0%

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TAA STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME

Unit: Baht million 3Q2019 3Q2018 Change 9M2019 9M2018 Change

Revenue from sales and services 9,419 8,945 5% 30,183 29,250 3%

Gain on exchange rate 0 104 ->100% 271 133 >100%

Other income 242 258 -6% 764 821 -7%

Total revenues 9,661 9,307 4% 31,219 30,203 3%

Cost of sales and services (9,350) (9,138) 2% (28,957) (26,897) 8%

Selling and administrative expenses (716) (704) 2% (2,409) (2,277) 6%

Loss on exchange (80) 0 n/a 0 0 n/a

Total expenses (10,146) (9,842) 3% (31,366) (29,174) 8%

EBIT (485) (535) 9% (147) 1,029 ->100%

Finance costs (198) (188) 5% (570) (536) 6%

Profit (loss) before income tax (683) (722) -5% (717) 493 ->100%

Income tax income (Expense) (77) 67 >100% (20) 118 ->100%

Net Profit (loss) (761) (656) 16% (737) 611 ->100%

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TAA STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION

Unit: Baht million 3Q2019 FY2018 Change

Assets

Cash and Cash equivalents 2,476 4,037 -39%

Other current assets 3,635 2,238 +62%

Aircraft, leasehold improvements and equipment, net 25,104 26,129 -4%

Other non-current assets 6,019 5,514 +9%

Total assets 37,234 37,918 -2%

Liabilities

Deferred revenues 4,373 4,987 -12%

Borrowings from financial institutions 5,076 3,488 +46%

Debenture 4,096 4,095 0%

Finance lease liabilities 11,900 13,219 -10%

Other liabilities 4,881 4,351 +12%

Total liabilities 30,326 30,140 +1%

Share capital

Ordinary Share Capital 436 436 0%

Share Premium 2,629 2,629 0%

Retained earnings - legal reserve 44 43 0%

Retained earnings - unappropriate 3,800 4,670 -19%

Total share capital 6,908 7,778 -11%

Total liabilities and share capital 37,234 37,918 -2%15

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3Q2019 3Q2018 Change 9M2019 9M018 Change

Earnings (loss) per Share (THB) (17.46) (15.05) -16% (16.92) 14.04 ->100%

Return on Total Assets -3.2% 4.0% -3.2% 4.0%

Return on Shareholders' Equity -16.1% 15.3% -16.1% 15.3%

EBITDAR Margin 13.2% 13.6% -0 ppt 17% 21% -4 ppt

EBIT Margin -5.1% -6.0% +1 ppt 4% 8% -4 ppt

Net Income Margin -8.1% -7.3% -1 ppt -2.4% 2.1% -4 ppt

Debt1 : Equity ratio (Times) 3.05 2.56 3.05 2.56

Net Debt2 : Equity ratio (Times) 2.69 2.08 2.69 2.08

Net Liabilities3 : Equity ratio (Times) 4.03 3.11 4.03 3.11

TAA : FINANCIAL SUMMARY

Note: 1 Debt = Borrowings from financial institutions + Finance lease liabilities + Debenture

2 Net Debt = (Borrowings from financial institutions + Finance lease liabilities + Debenture) - Cash and Cash Equivalents – Short-term Investments

3 Net Liabilities = Total liabilities – Cash and Cash Equivalents – Short-term Investments

Percentage Point (PPT)

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AAV STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME

Unit: Baht millionConsolidated

ChangeConsolidated

Change3Q2019 3Q2018 9M2019 9M2018

Revenue from sales and services 9,419 8,945 5% 30,183 29,250 3%

Gain on exchange rate 0 104 ->100% 271 133 >100%

Other income 242 258 -6% 765 821 -7%

Total revenues 9,661 9,307 4% 31,219 30,203 3%

Cost of sales and services (9,350) (9,138) 2% (28,957) (26,897) 8%

Selling and administrative expenses (714) (701) 2% (2,405) (2,273) 6%

Loss on exchange (80) 0 n/a 0 0 n/a

Total expenses (10,144) (9,838) 3% (31,362) (29,169) 8%

EBIT (482) (531) 9% (142) 1,034 ->100%

Finance costs (198) (188) 5% (570) (536) 6%

Profit (loss) before income tax (681) (719) 5% (712) 498 ->100%

Income tax income (Expense) (78) 66 >100% (21) 117 ->100%

Profit (loss) attributable to (759) (653) -16% (733) 615 ->100%

Equity holders of the company (417) (358) -16% (402) 340 ->100%

Non-controlling interests of the subsidiary (342) (295) -16% (332) 275 ->100%

Earnings (loss) per share (THB) (759) (653) -16% (733) 615 ->100%

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Unit: Baht millionConsolidated

Change3Q2019 FY2018

AssetsCash and Cash equivalents 2,566 4,123 -38%

Other current assets 3,636 2,243 +62%Aircraft, leasehold improvements and equipment, net 25,160 26,185 -4%Intangible assets 1) 14,878 14,883 0%Goodwill 2) 8,825 8,825 0%Other non-current assets 6,001 5,488 +9%

Total assets 61,066 61,747 -1%Liabilities

Deferred revenues 4,373 4,987 -12%Accrued expenses 2,271 2,562 -11%Finance lease liabilities 11,900 13,219 -10%

Borrowings from financial institutions 5,076 3,488 +46%Debenture 4,096 4,095 0%

Other liabilities 5,594 4,773 +17%Total liabilities 33,310 33,124 +1%Share capital

Ordinary Share Capital 485 485 0%Share Premium 2,600 2,600 0%

Retained Earnings – Legal reserve 49 48 0%Retained Earnings – Unappropriated 16,847 17,322 -3%Non-controlling interests 7,776 8,167 -5%

Total share capital 27,756 28,623 -3%Total liabilities and share capital 61,066 61,747 -1%

AAV STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION

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GLOSSARYLoad Factor = Represents the number of passengers carried as a proportion to capacity, which is the number of seats available for passengers.

Available Seat Kilometres (ASK) = which is the total number of seats available on all flights multiplied by the number of kilometres these seats were flown

Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) = Revenue passenger kilometres, which is the number of paying passengers carried on all flights multiplied by the number of kilometres those seats were flown

Average Fare = Calculated as Thai AirAsia' s total passenger revenues and fuel surcharge divided by total number of passengers carried

Revenue per ASK (RASK) = Calculated as Thai AirAsia's revenues divided by ASK

Cost per ASK (CASK) = Calculated as the sum of Thai AirAsia's operating costs, selling expenses and administrative expenses (but excluding finance costs) divided by ASK

Cost per ASK (CASK ex-fuel) = Calculated as the sum of Thai AirAsia's operating costs, selling expenses and administrative expenses (but excluding finance costs) less fuel costs divided by ASK

Average Stage Length (kilometres) = Represents the average number of kilometresflown per flight

Aircraft Utilisation = Represents the average block hours per day per aircraft during the relevant period. Block hours is calculated by measuring the duration between the time of departure of an aircraft and the time of arrival at its destination.

On Time Performance (%) = A flight is deemed "on time" if the actual departure time is no more than 15 minutes of the scheduled departure time.

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