3Q2019 RESULTS BRIEFING...
Transcript of 3Q2019 RESULTS BRIEFING...
12 NOVEMBER 2019
3Q2019
RESULTS BRIEFING
PRESENTATION
The presentation is dated the day it is given. The delivery of this presentation shall not,under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in theaffairs of the Company since such date. The third party information and statistical data inthis presentation have been obtained from sources the Company believes to be reliablebut in no way are warranted by the Company as to accuracy or completeness. Thispresentation may not contain all material information concerning the Company and theinformation set forth in this material is subject to change without notice.
These materials included herein that are not historical facts are forward-lookingstatements. Such forward looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertaintiesand are subject to change at any time. In the event such risks or uncertainties materialize,AAV’s results could be materially affected. The risks and uncertainties include, but are notlimited to, risks associated with the inherent uncertainty of airline travel, seasonalityissues, volatile jet fuel prices, world terrorism, perceived safe destination for travel,Government regulation changes and approval, including but not limited to the expectedlanding rights into new destinations.
This presentation is strictly not to be distributed without the explicit consent ofCompany’s management under any circumstances.
DISCLAIMER
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THAILAND MARKET
2
31% 30%
North America
36% 36%
Europe
51%
55%
South Asia
48%49%
SE Asia
LCC penetration 1
52% 52%
Thailand
2018 2019
CHINA
Grew 2% YoY and 29% contribution
ASEAN
Grew 5% YoY and 26% contribution
EUROPE
Edged down 2% YoY and 16% contribution
SOUTH ASIA
OVERALL
9M19 visitors grew 4% YoY to 29.5 million
E.Asia 70%
EU 16%
S.Asia 6%
US 4%Others 4%
292
million
Tourists from China grew 17% YoY with 23% YoY jumps in arrival from India in 3Q2019
Grew 21% YoY and 6% contribution
EXPECTED OVER 40 MILLION VISITORS IN 2019 OR 5% YOY
1 source: CAPA 2 source: Ministry of Tourism and Sport
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KEY DEVELOPMENTS 3Q2019
5.28 millionPassengers grew 3%on the back of an 3% capacity growth
First-time-ever listing on the Thailand Sustainability Investment
(THSI) index of SET
Transferred call center services to AVA, AirAsia’s AI-powered
and 24/7 automated chat system
Average fare was at Baht 1,457 per pax up 3%, particularly
domestic routes, from the decelerated capacity growth.
Ancillaries were Baht 1,741 million up 2%, mainly from an increase in revenues of seat selection and connecting flight.
ASK rose 10% as launching several international routes
CASK was 1.49 Baht down 7% YoY. Fuel per ASK was 0.51 Baht
down 18%, while CASK ex-fuel was 0.98 Baht unchanged YoY
TAA & AAV revealed net loss of Baht 761 million and Baht 417million, respectively
TAA net gearing was at 2.69x with a cash of Baht 2.5 billion
KEY UPDATE
CORE REVENUES
KEY PERFORMANCE
88%81% 12.2hrs
Load Factor On-Time Utilisation
58%3.05 mil (-3%)
42%2.23 mil (+13%)
Domestic International
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9,307 9,661
3Q18 3Q19
1,213 1,247
3Q18 3Q19
3Q18 3Q19
TAA NET LOSS BEFORE FXEBITDARREVENUE
• Revenue from sales and services recorded 4% YoY at Baht 9.42 billion due to;• Average fare rose by 3% to Baht 1,457 per passenger, particularly domestic routes• 3% increase in the number of passengers carried to achieve at 5.3 million, particularly international route passengers
• EBITDAR up by 3% to Baht 1.25 billion with a margin of 13.2%;• Fuel costs dropped by 9% along with a 13% decrease in fuel price, despite a 9% rise in the fuel consumption
• Net Loss before FX recorded at Baht 681million, on the back of;• Income tax expense amounted to Baht 77 million, reversed from income tax revenue of Baht 67 million in Q3/2018,
as a result of the carryforward of unused-tax credits from the past periods• Loss on exchange of Baht 80 million, reversed from gain on exchange of Baht 104 million in Q3/2018 from the par
forward foreign exchange contract
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHT 3Q2019
Unit: million Baht
(760)
(681)
4%
10%
3%
- Unused Tax Credit
ASK
20,542+11% YoY
RASK
1.47-7% YoY
CASK
1.53-3% YoY
CASK EX-FUEL
1.00Unchanged YoY
Bahtmillion Baht Baht
TOTAL REVENUES
31,2193% YoY
EBITDAR
5,127-16% YoY
TAA NET LOSS
737->100% YoY
AAV NET LOSS
402->100% YoY
million Bahtmillion Baht million Baht million Baht
PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS 9M2019
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• Total revenues increased mainly due to an increase in ancillary revenues and number passengers, despite lower average fares primarily from the international market.
• ASK up by 11% YoY due to the international route expansion, despite a decrease in RASK of 7% .• CASK decreased by 3% YoY as a result of a 9% decrease in fuel per ASK. CASK ex-fuel unchanged due to the
cost containment, although there was the recognition of the additional long-term employee benefit liabilities of Baht 111 million.
ANCILLARY PERFORMANCE
ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE 2019 BT 343 PER PAX (+4%YoY)
3Q19 achieved 1,7bn (+2%YoY) or Bt 329 per pax (-2%YoY) 6
1,7
15
1,7
41
FLY-THRU
• 3Q19 up by 53% from additional flights among AOCs, reflected in a 41% growth in traffics
• No. Fly-Thru accounted for 7% of total pax
CHECKED BAGGAGE
• 3Q19 edge down by 1% YoY, relating to lower western visitors and growth in OTA channel
IN-FLIGHT SERVICES
• Continue promoting pre-book In-flight combo set• Enhance house-brand on F&B and merchandise.
SEAT SELECTION
• 3Q19 up by 17% YoY, relating to an expansion in international route
• Persuasive advertising influences demand on Value
Pack and seat
OTHERS (Cargo, Tune, Fees)
• Fee structure adjustment; processing fee• Fly-Thru lounge access
18.5%
Revenues 49%
9%
8%
6%
28%
3Q18 3Q19
+2%YoY
Percent contribution to total ancillary revenue
Un
it :
Mill
ion
7
MARKET SHARE1 BY PAX FLOWN65%
13
23
33.4%
18.3%16.2%
9.4%6.9%
10.0%5.8%
32.4%
18.1% 18.1%
9.3%7.3%
9.7%4.9%
6M2019 FY2018
Note: 1 6M2019 compared to FY2018 (Source: AAV, AOT and Department of Airport)2 Capacity share as of FY2019 (source : OAG)3 As of August 15 2019
DOMESTIC MARKET
Regional Capacity2
Unique Routes3
CitiesAirAsia Nok Lion Smile Thai Bangkok Vietjet
21Transfer Routes
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27.24
48.38 49.55 47.51
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
THAILAND DOMESTIC CAPACITY
(source : OAG)
Peers
Unit : million
Thai Lion Air67%
Thai Airways Group 18%
Nok Air 9%
Bangkok Airways 5%Thai VietJet 1%
Hubs
RE
DU
CT
ION
Competitors have decreased its
capacity by 1.8 million seats, particularly DMK hub.
Thailand domestic market capacity over the past 5-year had grown by 15%,resulting in intense competition and the price war. Recently, the market has a more rational environment, reflected in a 4% decline in capacity.
BKKDMK
DECELERATED GROWTH SPUR THE AVERAGE FARE
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NETWORK REALLOCATION TO MAXIMISE OPERATIONAL RETURNS
* JUL 2019 – OCT 2019** WINTER SEASON*** DEC 2019 – JAN 2020
CNX – DanangDMK – Nha TrangDMK – Can ThoCEI – ShenzhenCNX – ShenzhenDMK – AhmedabadHKT – Phnom Penh
DMK – Narathiwat(7x > 11x)*
DMK – Jaipur (4x > 7x)**DMK – Nan(28x > 31x)***
DMK – Sihanoukville
DMK – VaranasiCEI – Hangzhou
ADD FREQUENCIES: NEW ROUTES:
2Q
/20
19
3Q
/20
19
4Q
/20
19
DMK – Roi EtDMK – Khon KeanDMK – ShenzhenCNX – Taipei (6x > 7x)
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Fuel costs in 3Q19 dropped by 9% along with a 13% decrease in fuel price and favourable exchange rate, despite a 9% rise in the fuel consumption.
TAA has hedged 86 and 73% of Brent at an effective cost of Jet at $75.6/bbl for 4Q2019 and FY2020, respectively.
34% Fuel Costs
16% Staff Costs
13% Aircraft and Aircraft Engine Rental
9% Repair and Maintenance
12% Ramp and Airport Operation
5% Selling and Administrative
11% Other costs
3Q19
UNIT COSTS : ON TRACK TO BEAT FY2019 PLAN
0.62 0.51
0.980.98
3Q2018 3Q2019
1.60 1.49
Un
it :
Ba
ht -7%
FUEL
EX-FUEL
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GROWTH
COSTS
COMMERCIAL
• FY2019 capacity growth expected between 5 and 6% driven by disciplined network expansion
• First A321neo delivered in December and entry to service during 1Q/2020
• ASK growth in 2019 between 10 and 11% on the back of international route expansion
• Passengers to achieve at 22.5 million on due to waiving VOA fees till 30 Apr 2020 and other tourism measures;
expect to achieve at 86% of load factor
• On track to achieve 2019 goal; CASK guidance narrowed to -2.0 to 0.0% ; CASK ex-fuel unchanged
• Maintain a cost advantage over competitors, even under the same or different business models
• Cost initiative; transferred call centre services to AVA with 24/7 automated chat system
• Taking immediate capacity actions to address near-term RASK weakness, driven by some new routes taking
longer than usual to mature; network reallocation continues to ramp during the peak seasons
• Maintaining its favourable operating performance (OTP) to more than 85%; which is key in positive brand
awareness
• On track to deliver ancillary revenue; engaging in dynamic pricing of its products & adding a bundled products
• Maintain the goal to ensure that our guests feel like they get the great value from the company’s low fare
COMPANY GUIDANCE
RELEVANT MATERIALShttps://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/home
DOCUMENT LOCATION
Investor Presentation
https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/downloads/presentations-webcasts
EarningReleases
https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/updates/news
Annual Reports
https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/downloads/annual-report
Investor Kits
https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/publications-and-download/investor-kits
Operating Statistic
https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/operating-statistics
SustainabilityReport
https://www.aavplc.com/en/investor-relations/downloads/sustainability-report
Don Mueang International Airport, 3rd Fl., Central Office Building, No.3200,Vibhavadi Rangsit Road, Sanambin, Don Mueang, Bangkok 10210
www.aavplc.com [email protected] +662 5625745-6
TAA : KEY STATISTICS
3Q2019 3Q2018 Change 9M2019 9M2018 Change
Passenger carried (Million seats) 5.28 5.12 3% 16.73 16.07 4%
International passenger 2.23 1.97 13% 6.90 6.03 14%
Domestic passenger 3.05 3.15 -3% 9.82 10.04 -2%
Capacity (Million seats) 6.55 6.34 3% 19.81 18.84 5%
Load factor 81% 81% 0 ppt 84% 85% -1 ppt
RPK (Million) 5,444 4,979 9% 17,237 15,791 9%
ASK (Million) 6,766 6,167 10% 20,542 18,559 11%
No. of stages flown 36,253 35,105 3% 109,678 104,382 5%
Average stage length (km) 1,034 972 6% 1,037 985 5%
Fleet size (Aircraft) 62 60 +2 62 60 +2
Aircraft utilisation (Hours/day) 12.2 11.7 +0.5 12.4 12.0 +0.4
On time performance 88% 89% -1 ppt 86% 85% +1 ppt
Average fare (Baht) 1,457 1,418 +3% 1,469 1,499 -2%
RASK (Baht) 1.39 1.45 -4% 1.47 1.58 -7%
CASK (Baht) 1.49 1.60 -7% 1.53 1.57 -3%
CASK ex-fuel (Baht) 0.98 0.98 0% 1.00 1.00 0%
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TAA STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
Unit: Baht million 3Q2019 3Q2018 Change 9M2019 9M2018 Change
Revenue from sales and services 9,419 8,945 5% 30,183 29,250 3%
Gain on exchange rate 0 104 ->100% 271 133 >100%
Other income 242 258 -6% 764 821 -7%
Total revenues 9,661 9,307 4% 31,219 30,203 3%
Cost of sales and services (9,350) (9,138) 2% (28,957) (26,897) 8%
Selling and administrative expenses (716) (704) 2% (2,409) (2,277) 6%
Loss on exchange (80) 0 n/a 0 0 n/a
Total expenses (10,146) (9,842) 3% (31,366) (29,174) 8%
EBIT (485) (535) 9% (147) 1,029 ->100%
Finance costs (198) (188) 5% (570) (536) 6%
Profit (loss) before income tax (683) (722) -5% (717) 493 ->100%
Income tax income (Expense) (77) 67 >100% (20) 118 ->100%
Net Profit (loss) (761) (656) 16% (737) 611 ->100%
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TAA STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION
Unit: Baht million 3Q2019 FY2018 Change
Assets
Cash and Cash equivalents 2,476 4,037 -39%
Other current assets 3,635 2,238 +62%
Aircraft, leasehold improvements and equipment, net 25,104 26,129 -4%
Other non-current assets 6,019 5,514 +9%
Total assets 37,234 37,918 -2%
Liabilities
Deferred revenues 4,373 4,987 -12%
Borrowings from financial institutions 5,076 3,488 +46%
Debenture 4,096 4,095 0%
Finance lease liabilities 11,900 13,219 -10%
Other liabilities 4,881 4,351 +12%
Total liabilities 30,326 30,140 +1%
Share capital
Ordinary Share Capital 436 436 0%
Share Premium 2,629 2,629 0%
Retained earnings - legal reserve 44 43 0%
Retained earnings - unappropriate 3,800 4,670 -19%
Total share capital 6,908 7,778 -11%
Total liabilities and share capital 37,234 37,918 -2%15
3Q2019 3Q2018 Change 9M2019 9M018 Change
Earnings (loss) per Share (THB) (17.46) (15.05) -16% (16.92) 14.04 ->100%
Return on Total Assets -3.2% 4.0% -3.2% 4.0%
Return on Shareholders' Equity -16.1% 15.3% -16.1% 15.3%
EBITDAR Margin 13.2% 13.6% -0 ppt 17% 21% -4 ppt
EBIT Margin -5.1% -6.0% +1 ppt 4% 8% -4 ppt
Net Income Margin -8.1% -7.3% -1 ppt -2.4% 2.1% -4 ppt
Debt1 : Equity ratio (Times) 3.05 2.56 3.05 2.56
Net Debt2 : Equity ratio (Times) 2.69 2.08 2.69 2.08
Net Liabilities3 : Equity ratio (Times) 4.03 3.11 4.03 3.11
TAA : FINANCIAL SUMMARY
Note: 1 Debt = Borrowings from financial institutions + Finance lease liabilities + Debenture
2 Net Debt = (Borrowings from financial institutions + Finance lease liabilities + Debenture) - Cash and Cash Equivalents – Short-term Investments
3 Net Liabilities = Total liabilities – Cash and Cash Equivalents – Short-term Investments
Percentage Point (PPT)
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AAV STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
Unit: Baht millionConsolidated
ChangeConsolidated
Change3Q2019 3Q2018 9M2019 9M2018
Revenue from sales and services 9,419 8,945 5% 30,183 29,250 3%
Gain on exchange rate 0 104 ->100% 271 133 >100%
Other income 242 258 -6% 765 821 -7%
Total revenues 9,661 9,307 4% 31,219 30,203 3%
Cost of sales and services (9,350) (9,138) 2% (28,957) (26,897) 8%
Selling and administrative expenses (714) (701) 2% (2,405) (2,273) 6%
Loss on exchange (80) 0 n/a 0 0 n/a
Total expenses (10,144) (9,838) 3% (31,362) (29,169) 8%
EBIT (482) (531) 9% (142) 1,034 ->100%
Finance costs (198) (188) 5% (570) (536) 6%
Profit (loss) before income tax (681) (719) 5% (712) 498 ->100%
Income tax income (Expense) (78) 66 >100% (21) 117 ->100%
Profit (loss) attributable to (759) (653) -16% (733) 615 ->100%
Equity holders of the company (417) (358) -16% (402) 340 ->100%
Non-controlling interests of the subsidiary (342) (295) -16% (332) 275 ->100%
Earnings (loss) per share (THB) (759) (653) -16% (733) 615 ->100%
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Unit: Baht millionConsolidated
Change3Q2019 FY2018
AssetsCash and Cash equivalents 2,566 4,123 -38%
Other current assets 3,636 2,243 +62%Aircraft, leasehold improvements and equipment, net 25,160 26,185 -4%Intangible assets 1) 14,878 14,883 0%Goodwill 2) 8,825 8,825 0%Other non-current assets 6,001 5,488 +9%
Total assets 61,066 61,747 -1%Liabilities
Deferred revenues 4,373 4,987 -12%Accrued expenses 2,271 2,562 -11%Finance lease liabilities 11,900 13,219 -10%
Borrowings from financial institutions 5,076 3,488 +46%Debenture 4,096 4,095 0%
Other liabilities 5,594 4,773 +17%Total liabilities 33,310 33,124 +1%Share capital
Ordinary Share Capital 485 485 0%Share Premium 2,600 2,600 0%
Retained Earnings – Legal reserve 49 48 0%Retained Earnings – Unappropriated 16,847 17,322 -3%Non-controlling interests 7,776 8,167 -5%
Total share capital 27,756 28,623 -3%Total liabilities and share capital 61,066 61,747 -1%
AAV STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION
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GLOSSARYLoad Factor = Represents the number of passengers carried as a proportion to capacity, which is the number of seats available for passengers.
Available Seat Kilometres (ASK) = which is the total number of seats available on all flights multiplied by the number of kilometres these seats were flown
Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) = Revenue passenger kilometres, which is the number of paying passengers carried on all flights multiplied by the number of kilometres those seats were flown
Average Fare = Calculated as Thai AirAsia' s total passenger revenues and fuel surcharge divided by total number of passengers carried
Revenue per ASK (RASK) = Calculated as Thai AirAsia's revenues divided by ASK
Cost per ASK (CASK) = Calculated as the sum of Thai AirAsia's operating costs, selling expenses and administrative expenses (but excluding finance costs) divided by ASK
Cost per ASK (CASK ex-fuel) = Calculated as the sum of Thai AirAsia's operating costs, selling expenses and administrative expenses (but excluding finance costs) less fuel costs divided by ASK
Average Stage Length (kilometres) = Represents the average number of kilometresflown per flight
Aircraft Utilisation = Represents the average block hours per day per aircraft during the relevant period. Block hours is calculated by measuring the duration between the time of departure of an aircraft and the time of arrival at its destination.
On Time Performance (%) = A flight is deemed "on time" if the actual departure time is no more than 15 minutes of the scheduled departure time.
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