3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12...
Transcript of 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12...
3Q and Nine Months Results 2012
2
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements In order, among other things, to utilise the 'safe harbour' provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act 1995, we are providing the following cautionary statement: This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements with respect to the operations, performance and financial condition of the Group. Although we believe our expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, any forward-looking statements, by their very nature, involve risks and uncertainties and may be influenced by factors that could cause actual outcomes and results to be materially different from those predicted. The forward-looking statements reflect knowledge and information available at the date of preparation of this presentation and AstraZeneca undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. We identify the forward-looking statements by using the words 'anticipates', 'believes', 'expects', 'intends' and similar expressions in such statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements, certain of which are beyond our control, include, among other things: the loss or expiration of patents, marketing exclusivity or trade marks, or the risk of failure to obtain patent protection; the risk of substantial adverse litigation/government investigation claims and insufficient insurance coverage; exchange rate fluctuations; the risk that R&D will not yield new products that achieve commercial success; the risk that strategic alliances and acquisitions will be unsuccessful; the impact of competition, price controls and price reductions; taxation risks; the risk of substantial product liability claims; the impact of any failure by third parties to supply materials or services; the risk of failure to manage a crisis; the risk of delay to new product launches; the difficulties of obtaining and maintaining regulatory approvals for products; the risk of failure to observe ongoing regulatory oversight; the risk that new products do not perform as we expect; the risk of environmental liabilities; the risks associated with conducting business in emerging markets; the risk of reputational damage; the risk of product counterfeiting; the risk of failure to successfully implement planned cost reduction measures through productivity initiatives and restructuring programmes; the risk that regulatory approval processes for biosimilars could have an adverse effect on future commercial prospects; and the impact of increasing implementation and enforcement of more stringent anti-bribery and anti-corruption legislation. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast.
3Q and Nine Months Results 2012
3Q and Nine Months Results
Pascal Soriot, Chief Executive Officer
2012
Simon Lowth, Chief Financial Officer
3Q and Nine Months Results 2012
6
Restructuring ($0.15) ($0.12) MedImmune/Merck amortisation ($0.11) ($0.08) Intangible impairments - ($0.01) Legal provisions/other ($0.03) $1.06
Headline results 3Q 2012
Core Operating Profit 2,632 3,177 -17% -14%
Revenue 6,682 8,213 -19% -15%
Core EPS $1.51 $1.71 -12% -8%
Reported EPS $1.22 $2.56 -53% -50%
CER growth
2012 $m
Actual growth
2011 $m
7
Headline results 9Mo 2012
Revenue 20,691 24,935 -17% -15%
Restructuring ($0.71) ($0.27) MedImmune/Merck amortisation ($0.29) ($0.24)
Intangible impairments - ($0.01) Legal provisions/other ($0.08) $1.02
Core EPS $4.85 $5.67 -14% -11%
Net Share Repurchases $2,273 $3,878
Reported EPS $3.77 $6.17 -39% -36%
2012 $m
2011 $m
CER growth
Actual growth
Core Operating Profit 7,898 10,177 -22% -20%
8
Regional revenue performance 3Q 2012
US 2,573 -19% (614)
Western Europe 1,461 -20% (415)
Established ROW 1,211 -18% (272) Japan 723 -6% (45) Canada 218 -43% (174) Other Established ROW 270 -16% (53)
Emerging Markets 1,437 +6% 94 Emerging Europe 264 +4% 13 China 399 +23% 73 Emerging Asia Pacific 226 -4% (9) Other Emerging ROW 548 +3% 17
Global Revenue 6,682 -15% (1,207) Astra Tech/Aptium -1.8 pts
Seroquel IR (750) Ex-Seroquel IR +6%
Crestor (153); Atacand (7)
Seroquel IR, Nexium, Atacand & Merrem generics
Mexico -25%
Mexico lowers growth rate by >2 pts
CER $m
2012 $m
CER growth
9
Brand revenue performance 3Q 2012
Crestor 1,544 -3% (55) Symbicort 785 +11% 84 Seroquel XR 373 +8% 29 Iressa 154 +11% 16 Faslodex 167 +28% 39 ONGLYZATM 84 +42% 25 Brilinta/Brilique 24 +100% 13
Global Revenue 6,682 -15% (1,207)
Nexium 995 -6% (62) Seroquel IR 169 -83% (856) Atacand 221 -34% (122) Merrem 90 -29% (40)
CER $m
2012 $m
CER growth
Canada (153); ex-Canada +7%
Western Europe (56); Japan (52)
10
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Crestor
US • US TRx -3.3%
- Statin market +0.9%
• Crestor volumes stable post generic atorvastatin
3Q 2012 Sales: $1,544m -3%
3Q 2011 3Q 2012
US W EUR
EST ROW EM ROW
W. EUR $277m +4%
US $833m +11%
EST ROW $272m -36%
EM ROW $162m +4%
11
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1-A
pr
15-A
pr
29-A
pr
13-M
ay
27-M
ay
10-J
un
24-J
un
8-Ju
l 22
-Jul
5-
Aug
19
-Aug
2-
Sep
16
-Sep
30
-Sep
14
-Oct
28
-Oct
11
-Nov
25
-Nov
9-
Dec
23
-Dec
6-
Jan
20-J
an
3-Fe
b 17
-Feb
2-
Mar
16
-Mar
30
-Mar
13
-Apr
27
-Apr
11
-May
25
-May
8-
Jun
22-J
un
6-Ju
l 20
-Jul
3-
Aug
17
-Aug
31
-Aug
14
-Sep
CRESTOR Dynamic Volumes
Switch From Switch To NTS Net Dynamic
1 – Retail dynamic volumes only; does not include mail order or long term care business 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter
Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics, Data Week ending 09/21/2012
Simva Warning June 8
Gx atorva Multi-Source
May 30 Lipitor LOE
Nov 30
1
Crestor : US net dynamic volume trend
12 Source: – IMS Xponent PlanTrak, Data Week ending 09/14/12
1 – Retail dynamic volumes only; does not include mail order or long term care business
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
3-Ju
n
3-Ju
l
3-Au
g
3-Se
p
3-O
ct
3-N
ov
3-D
ec
3-Ja
n
3-Fe
b
3-M
ar
3-Ap
r
3-M
ay
3-Ju
n
3-Ju
l
3-Au
g
3-Se
p
-5,000
-3,000
-1,000
1,000
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
29-J
ul
29-A
ug
29-S
ep
29-O
ct
29-N
ov
29-D
ec
29-J
an
29-F
eb
31-M
ar
30-A
pr
31-M
ay
30-J
un
31-J
ul
31-A
ug
Commercial and Medicare Part D1 Medicaid FFS1
NTS Switch From Net Dynamic Switch To
Medicaid Contracting Decision
Simva label change Lipitor LOE
Gx atorva Multi-Source
May 30
Crestor: US dynamic volume stable in Commercial and Part D segments, with erosion evident in Medicaid
13
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Crestor
US • US TRx -3.3%
- Statin market +0.9%
• Crestor volumes stable post generic atorvastatin
RoW • RoW sales $711m; -15%
- Adj. for LOE in Canada; +2%
3Q 2012 Sales: $1,544m -3%
3Q 2011 3Q 2012
US W EUR
EST ROW EM ROW
W. EUR $277m +4%
US $833m +11%
EST ROW $272m -36%
EM ROW $162m +4%
14
Brilinta: US launch progress
4Q 2011
1Q 2012
2Q 2012
3Q 2012
Top 400: on Formulary 46% 68% 75% 79%
Top 400: on Protocol 14% 20% 32% 34%
IC Trial Overall 6% 15% 25% 34%
IC Trial when on Protocol 8% 20% 29% 39%
MM Overall Unrestricted Access 60% 61% 66% 69%
MM Part D Unrestricted Access 19% 27% 34% 48%
Performance trend in TRxs Steady increase in key indicators
Rx Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics, Data Week ending 06/29/12
Source: IMS Health NPA Weekly; IMS Health NPA Market Dynamics (Retail Only)
2Q TRx: 21,791
3Q TRx: 33,829 +55% vs2Q
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,2003,400
09/0
9/11
09/2
3/11
10/0
7/11
10/2
1/11
11/0
4/11
11/1
8/11
12/0
2/11
12/1
6/11
12/3
0/11
01/1
3/12
01/2
7/12
02/1
0/12
02/2
4/12
03/0
9/12
03/2
3/12
04/0
6/12
04/2
0/12
05/0
4/12
05/1
8/12
06/0
1/12
06/1
5/12
06/2
9/12
07/1
3/12
07/2
7/12
08/1
0/12
08/2
4/12
09/0
7/12
09/2
1/12
TRx
Vol
ume
15
27%
33%40%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Clopidogrel Prasugrel BRILIQUE
Brilique: Strong Performance in Germany
• Hospital physicians reported Brilique on protocol in 82% of target hospitals through September, with 82% of these physicians trialing Brilique
OAP Retail Dynamic Share
Sources: AZ primary research (Hospital Tracker Study); IMS LRx
Share of ACS initiations : BRILINTA “On Protocol “ Hospitals
9.7%
8.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Dyn
amic
Mkt
. Sha
re
BRILIQUE Prasugrel
16
7.7%
1.7%
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%
OA
P DO
T M
kt. S
hare
BRILIQUE prasugrel
8.0%
2.0%
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%
OA
P DO
T M
kt. S
hare
BRILIQUE prasugrel
7.1%
3.7%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
OA
P DO
T M
kt. S
hare
BRILIQUE prasugrel
1.4%1.5%
0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%2.0%
OA
P DO
T M
kt. S
hare
BRILIQUE prasugrel
Brilique: Performance in Nordic Region
SWEDEN: OAP Volume Market Share by Channel - Total FINLAND: OAP Volume Market Share by Channel – Total
DENMARK: OAP Volume Market Share by Channel – Total NORWAY: OAP Volume Market Share by Channel – Total
Source: IMS Health MIDAS Launch dates: Denmark: BRILINTA = Jan 2011; prasugrel = April 2009 Finland: BRILINTA = Feb 2011; prasugrel = May 2009 Norway: BRILINTA = Mar 2011; prasugrel = Jun 2009 Sweden: BRILINTA = Apr 2011; prasugrel = Sep 2009
17
Brilique: Launch in Italy
• Hospital physicians reported Brilique on formulary in 61% of target hospitals through September, with 54% of these physicians trialing Brilique
Sources: AZ primary research (Hospital Tracker Study & ATU)
61%
78%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Dec2011n= 20
Jan2012n= 35
Feb2012n= 41
Mar2012n= 39
Apr2012n= 47
May2012n= 41
Jun2012n= 45
Jul2012n= 41
Aug2012n= 46
Sep2012n=41
BRILIQUE on formulary Prasugrel on formulary
Target Hospital Cardiologist Perceived Formulary Listing
Share of ACS initiations: BRILINTA “On Formulary” Hospitals
49%
22%
28%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Jan2012n=4
Feb2012n=20
Mar2012n=39
Apr2012n=53
May2012n=72
Jun2012n=76
Jul2012n=91
Aug2012n=94
Sep2012n=98
Clopidogrel Prasugrel BRILIQUE
18
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
ONGLYZATM
3Q 2012 Revenue: $84m +42%
W. EUR $11m +22%
US $62m +41%
EST ROW $3m +50%
EM ROW $8m +100%
US W EUR
EST ROW EM ROW
3Q 2011 3Q 2012
US • TRx for DPP4s up 21% in 3Q • AZ franchise share: 17.7% (Sept 2012)
- ONGLYZATM share: 11.8% - KOMBIGLYZE XRTM share: 5.9%
RoW • RoW revenue $22 million, +47%
19
Core margin: 3Q 2012
Revenue 6,682 -15% -
Core Gross Margin 5,422 -15% 81.1 -10 bps
Distribution (90) +2% 1.3 -20 bps
Core SG&A (2,028) -12% 30.3 -100bps
Core Other Income 416 +103% 6.2 +350 bps
Core Pre-R&D Profit 3,720 -11% 55.7 +220 bps
Core R&D (1,088) -3% 16.3 -190 bps
Core Operating Profit 2,632 -14% 39.4 +30 bps
$m CER
% % sales Delta vs PY CER
20
Restructuring Programme: Phase 3 2012-14
Total programme cost estimated at $2.1 billion; most to be taken in 2012
1Q 2Q 3Q 9Mo
Total 702 205 253 1,160
COGS 55 6 14 75
R&D 445 136 116 697
SG&A 202 63 123 388
Estimated annual benefits of $1.6 billion by end 2014
21
9Mo 2012: Cash flow/distributions
Cash generated from operating activities $4.1 billion (9Mo 2011 $4.8 billion)
- Working capital management and lower tax payments, partially offset lower operating profit
Shareholder distributions
- Cash distributions $5.9 billion YTD
- Net share repurchases
• Net share repurchases 9Mo 2012: $2.3 billion
• Share repurchases suspended 1 October
22
Guidance for 2012 (Core basis)
Revenue Low to mid-teens decline at CER
Gross Margin Below 2011, but above 80%
Pre-R&D Margin Below 2011, but upper half of mid-term planning range
Net Finance Expense In line with 2011
Other Operating Income Low double-digit decline vs 2011; add back $250m for Nexium OTC
Tax Rate Effective reported tax rate around 20%
Core EPS Maintained in the range $6.00 to $6.30
3Q and Nine Months Results 2012