3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12...

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3Q and Nine Months Results 2012

Transcript of 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12...

Page 1: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

3Q and Nine Months Results 2012

Page 2: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

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Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements In order, among other things, to utilise the 'safe harbour' provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act 1995, we are providing the following cautionary statement: This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements with respect to the operations, performance and financial condition of the Group. Although we believe our expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, any forward-looking statements, by their very nature, involve risks and uncertainties and may be influenced by factors that could cause actual outcomes and results to be materially different from those predicted. The forward-looking statements reflect knowledge and information available at the date of preparation of this presentation and AstraZeneca undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. We identify the forward-looking statements by using the words 'anticipates', 'believes', 'expects', 'intends' and similar expressions in such statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements, certain of which are beyond our control, include, among other things: the loss or expiration of patents, marketing exclusivity or trade marks, or the risk of failure to obtain patent protection; the risk of substantial adverse litigation/government investigation claims and insufficient insurance coverage; exchange rate fluctuations; the risk that R&D will not yield new products that achieve commercial success; the risk that strategic alliances and acquisitions will be unsuccessful; the impact of competition, price controls and price reductions; taxation risks; the risk of substantial product liability claims; the impact of any failure by third parties to supply materials or services; the risk of failure to manage a crisis; the risk of delay to new product launches; the difficulties of obtaining and maintaining regulatory approvals for products; the risk of failure to observe ongoing regulatory oversight; the risk that new products do not perform as we expect; the risk of environmental liabilities; the risks associated with conducting business in emerging markets; the risk of reputational damage; the risk of product counterfeiting; the risk of failure to successfully implement planned cost reduction measures through productivity initiatives and restructuring programmes; the risk that regulatory approval processes for biosimilars could have an adverse effect on future commercial prospects; and the impact of increasing implementation and enforcement of more stringent anti-bribery and anti-corruption legislation. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast.

Page 3: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

3Q and Nine Months Results 2012

Page 4: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

3Q and Nine Months Results

Pascal Soriot, Chief Executive Officer

2012

Page 5: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

Simon Lowth, Chief Financial Officer

3Q and Nine Months Results 2012

Page 6: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

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Restructuring ($0.15) ($0.12) MedImmune/Merck amortisation ($0.11) ($0.08) Intangible impairments - ($0.01) Legal provisions/other ($0.03) $1.06

Headline results 3Q 2012

Core Operating Profit 2,632 3,177 -17% -14%

Revenue 6,682 8,213 -19% -15%

Core EPS $1.51 $1.71 -12% -8%

Reported EPS $1.22 $2.56 -53% -50%

CER growth

2012 $m

Actual growth

2011 $m

Page 7: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

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Headline results 9Mo 2012

Revenue 20,691 24,935 -17% -15%

Restructuring ($0.71) ($0.27) MedImmune/Merck amortisation ($0.29) ($0.24)

Intangible impairments - ($0.01) Legal provisions/other ($0.08) $1.02

Core EPS $4.85 $5.67 -14% -11%

Net Share Repurchases $2,273 $3,878

Reported EPS $3.77 $6.17 -39% -36%

2012 $m

2011 $m

CER growth

Actual growth

Core Operating Profit 7,898 10,177 -22% -20%

Page 8: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

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Regional revenue performance 3Q 2012

US 2,573 -19% (614)

Western Europe 1,461 -20% (415)

Established ROW 1,211 -18% (272) Japan 723 -6% (45) Canada 218 -43% (174) Other Established ROW 270 -16% (53)

Emerging Markets 1,437 +6% 94 Emerging Europe 264 +4% 13 China 399 +23% 73 Emerging Asia Pacific 226 -4% (9) Other Emerging ROW 548 +3% 17

Global Revenue 6,682 -15% (1,207) Astra Tech/Aptium -1.8 pts

Seroquel IR (750) Ex-Seroquel IR +6%

Crestor (153); Atacand (7)

Seroquel IR, Nexium, Atacand & Merrem generics

Mexico -25%

Mexico lowers growth rate by >2 pts

CER $m

2012 $m

CER growth

Page 9: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

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Brand revenue performance 3Q 2012

Crestor 1,544 -3% (55) Symbicort 785 +11% 84 Seroquel XR 373 +8% 29 Iressa 154 +11% 16 Faslodex 167 +28% 39 ONGLYZATM 84 +42% 25 Brilinta/Brilique 24 +100% 13

Global Revenue 6,682 -15% (1,207)

Nexium 995 -6% (62) Seroquel IR 169 -83% (856) Atacand 221 -34% (122) Merrem 90 -29% (40)

CER $m

2012 $m

CER growth

Canada (153); ex-Canada +7%

Western Europe (56); Japan (52)

Page 10: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

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0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Crestor

US • US TRx -3.3%

- Statin market +0.9%

• Crestor volumes stable post generic atorvastatin

3Q 2012 Sales: $1,544m -3%

3Q 2011 3Q 2012

US W EUR

EST ROW EM ROW

W. EUR $277m +4%

US $833m +11%

EST ROW $272m -36%

EM ROW $162m +4%

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-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1-A

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29-A

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13-M

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27-M

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10-J

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24-J

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8-Ju

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-Jul

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Aug

19

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2-

Sep

16

-Sep

30

-Sep

14

-Oct

28

-Oct

11

-Nov

25

-Nov

9-

Dec

23

-Dec

6-

Jan

20-J

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Jun

22-J

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17

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31

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14

-Sep

CRESTOR Dynamic Volumes

Switch From Switch To NTS Net Dynamic

1 – Retail dynamic volumes only; does not include mail order or long term care business 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter

Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics, Data Week ending 09/21/2012

Simva Warning June 8

Gx atorva Multi-Source

May 30 Lipitor LOE

Nov 30

1

Crestor : US net dynamic volume trend

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12 Source: – IMS Xponent PlanTrak, Data Week ending 09/14/12

1 – Retail dynamic volumes only; does not include mail order or long term care business

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

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35,000

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Commercial and Medicare Part D1 Medicaid FFS1

NTS Switch From Net Dynamic Switch To

Medicaid Contracting Decision

Simva label change Lipitor LOE

Gx atorva Multi-Source

May 30

Crestor: US dynamic volume stable in Commercial and Part D segments, with erosion evident in Medicaid

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0

200

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800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Crestor

US • US TRx -3.3%

- Statin market +0.9%

• Crestor volumes stable post generic atorvastatin

RoW • RoW sales $711m; -15%

- Adj. for LOE in Canada; +2%

3Q 2012 Sales: $1,544m -3%

3Q 2011 3Q 2012

US W EUR

EST ROW EM ROW

W. EUR $277m +4%

US $833m +11%

EST ROW $272m -36%

EM ROW $162m +4%

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Brilinta: US launch progress

4Q 2011

1Q 2012

2Q 2012

3Q 2012

Top 400: on Formulary 46% 68% 75% 79%

Top 400: on Protocol 14% 20% 32% 34%

IC Trial Overall 6% 15% 25% 34%

IC Trial when on Protocol 8% 20% 29% 39%

MM Overall Unrestricted Access 60% 61% 66% 69%

MM Part D Unrestricted Access 19% 27% 34% 48%

Performance trend in TRxs Steady increase in key indicators

Rx Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics, Data Week ending 06/29/12

Source: IMS Health NPA Weekly; IMS Health NPA Market Dynamics (Retail Only)

2Q TRx: 21,791

3Q TRx: 33,829 +55% vs2Q

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,2003,400

09/0

9/11

09/2

3/11

10/0

7/11

10/2

1/11

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11/1

8/11

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6/11

12/3

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TRx

Vol

ume

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27%

33%40%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Clopidogrel Prasugrel BRILIQUE

Brilique: Strong Performance in Germany

• Hospital physicians reported Brilique on protocol in 82% of target hospitals through September, with 82% of these physicians trialing Brilique

OAP Retail Dynamic Share

Sources: AZ primary research (Hospital Tracker Study); IMS LRx

Share of ACS initiations : BRILINTA “On Protocol “ Hospitals

9.7%

8.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

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Mkt

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BRILIQUE Prasugrel

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7.7%

1.7%

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

OA

P DO

T M

kt. S

hare

BRILIQUE prasugrel

8.0%

2.0%

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

OA

P DO

T M

kt. S

hare

BRILIQUE prasugrel

7.1%

3.7%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

OA

P DO

T M

kt. S

hare

BRILIQUE prasugrel

1.4%1.5%

0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%2.0%

OA

P DO

T M

kt. S

hare

BRILIQUE prasugrel

Brilique: Performance in Nordic Region

SWEDEN: OAP Volume Market Share by Channel - Total FINLAND: OAP Volume Market Share by Channel – Total

DENMARK: OAP Volume Market Share by Channel – Total NORWAY: OAP Volume Market Share by Channel – Total

Source: IMS Health MIDAS Launch dates: Denmark: BRILINTA = Jan 2011; prasugrel = April 2009 Finland: BRILINTA = Feb 2011; prasugrel = May 2009 Norway: BRILINTA = Mar 2011; prasugrel = Jun 2009 Sweden: BRILINTA = Apr 2011; prasugrel = Sep 2009

Page 17: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

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Brilique: Launch in Italy

• Hospital physicians reported Brilique on formulary in 61% of target hospitals through September, with 54% of these physicians trialing Brilique

Sources: AZ primary research (Hospital Tracker Study & ATU)

61%

78%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Dec2011n= 20

Jan2012n= 35

Feb2012n= 41

Mar2012n= 39

Apr2012n= 47

May2012n= 41

Jun2012n= 45

Jul2012n= 41

Aug2012n= 46

Sep2012n=41

BRILIQUE on formulary Prasugrel on formulary

Target Hospital Cardiologist Perceived Formulary Listing

Share of ACS initiations: BRILINTA “On Formulary” Hospitals

49%

22%

28%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Jan2012n=4

Feb2012n=20

Mar2012n=39

Apr2012n=53

May2012n=72

Jun2012n=76

Jul2012n=91

Aug2012n=94

Sep2012n=98

Clopidogrel Prasugrel BRILIQUE

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0

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40

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120

140

ONGLYZATM

3Q 2012 Revenue: $84m +42%

W. EUR $11m +22%

US $62m +41%

EST ROW $3m +50%

EM ROW $8m +100%

US W EUR

EST ROW EM ROW

3Q 2011 3Q 2012

US • TRx for DPP4s up 21% in 3Q • AZ franchise share: 17.7% (Sept 2012)

- ONGLYZATM share: 11.8% - KOMBIGLYZE XRTM share: 5.9%

RoW • RoW revenue $22 million, +47%

Page 19: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

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Core margin: 3Q 2012

Revenue 6,682 -15% -

Core Gross Margin 5,422 -15% 81.1 -10 bps

Distribution (90) +2% 1.3 -20 bps

Core SG&A (2,028) -12% 30.3 -100bps

Core Other Income 416 +103% 6.2 +350 bps

Core Pre-R&D Profit 3,720 -11% 55.7 +220 bps

Core R&D (1,088) -3% 16.3 -190 bps

Core Operating Profit 2,632 -14% 39.4 +30 bps

$m CER

% % sales Delta vs PY CER

Page 20: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

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Restructuring Programme: Phase 3 2012-14

Total programme cost estimated at $2.1 billion; most to be taken in 2012

1Q 2Q 3Q 9Mo

Total 702 205 253 1,160

COGS 55 6 14 75

R&D 445 136 116 697

SG&A 202 63 123 388

Estimated annual benefits of $1.6 billion by end 2014

Page 21: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

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9Mo 2012: Cash flow/distributions

Cash generated from operating activities $4.1 billion (9Mo 2011 $4.8 billion)

- Working capital management and lower tax payments, partially offset lower operating profit

Shareholder distributions

- Cash distributions $5.9 billion YTD

- Net share repurchases

• Net share repurchases 9Mo 2012: $2.3 billion

• Share repurchases suspended 1 October

Page 22: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

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Guidance for 2012 (Core basis)

Revenue Low to mid-teens decline at CER

Gross Margin Below 2011, but above 80%

Pre-R&D Margin Below 2011, but upper half of mid-term planning range

Net Finance Expense In line with 2011

Other Operating Income Low double-digit decline vs 2011; add back $250m for Nexium OTC

Tax Rate Effective reported tax rate around 20%

Core EPS Maintained in the range $6.00 to $6.30

Page 23: 3Q and Nine Months Results 2012 - AstraZeneca · 2018. 9. 14. · 2 – Volumes based on the 12 weeks of weekly data corresponding to each Quarter Source: IMS NPA Market Dynamics,

3Q and Nine Months Results 2012