3M Talk March 2010
description
Transcript of 3M Talk March 2010
The US economy: where we might be headed
3M Hispanic Organization for LeadershipMarch 2, 2010 / Dr. Michael Brandl
3M Innovation Center - Austin
Overview Who I am
Economist with McCombs School of Business Managerial Economics – daytime MBA, Evening
MBA, and Executive MBA programs in Austin LLILAS (Teresa Lozano Long Institute of Latin American Studies)
Today Where the US economy is How we got here Where we might be headed
Improving GDP…but
Unemployment problems…
Consumer confidence
How we got here…US in 2000
2007
How did we get here
Everyone together now…
Where are we headed? The need for reasonable debt level.
Households are over indebted and don’t save. This will change…has it already started?
Households will probably start to save more. Easy credit will no longer be available to households.
More capital available… Different spending habits…
Restructuring financial markets Government debt levels remain a worry.
Greece just dodged a bullet…who is next? US needs to worry about this.
Aging baby boomers
Lessons for managers Asset bubbles happen.
“Irrational increase in the market price of an asset.” Very difficult to spot them when they are
happening… Even though there is a long history of them. Denial: “This time it’s different…”
When the pop, the masses can be massive.
But…benchmarking encourages it. Better to suffer in company…right?
More lessons… Markets will punish stupidity.
Short term thinkers…are doomed. The need to understand and appreciate change. Silo thinking is dangerous…and will be punished.
Markets are great things…but brutal. And that is why we will do well… The future will be very different from today and
the past… It is already changing…
Questions & AnswersFeel free to ask anything!
http://blogs.mccombs.utexas.edu/brandl
Twitter: MichaelBrandl
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