3CP - Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning (Nov15)
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GEORGE C. MARSHALL CENTER College of International and Security Studies Garmisch – Partenkirchen, Germany LTC ULRICH M. JANSSEN Program Manager Email: [email protected] LinkedIn: Ulrich Janßen Twitter: @UliJanOgau Phone: +49-8821-750-2658 · DSN 440-2658
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Transcript of 3CP - Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning (Nov15)
GEORGE C. MARSHALL CENTERCollege of International and Security StudiesGarmisch – Partenkirchen, Germany
LTC ULRICH M. JANSSENProgram ManagerEmail: [email protected]: Ulrich JanßenTwitter: @UliJanOgauPhone: +49-8821-750-2658 · DSN 440-2658
Comprehensive Crisis Communications PlanningAshgabat, August 2014
DISASTER PREPARED & RESPONSE WORKSHOP
AgendaComprehensive Crisis Communications Planning
The changing character of crisis and conflict Situation Awareness and Crisis Identification Challenges for Crisis Management Stakeholder Analysis Ensuring C5 Information Sharing Cooperation & Coordination in all phases
Examples
Summary & Conclusion
23-Aug-14 3
C2W“Military Facts”
Peace Crisis/Conflict War Transition Post War Peace
“War is merely the continuation of politics by other means.” (Carl v. Clausewitz)Center of Gravity: enemy / enemy capabilities
Humanitarian AssistanceCivil Engagement
Reconstruction(Marshall Plan)
IW(1970)IO(1990)
Military Role in Crisis Management
23-Aug-14 4
Significant Changes since 1990 Cause of conflict and related threats Geographic Focus Strategy and Complexity We, the enemy, and other actors Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures Role & Training Needs Technology & Information
23-Aug-14 5
Challenge #1The changing character of crisis and conflict
23-Aug-14 6
Challenge #2Asymmetric Spectrum of 21st Century Operations China/Russia
Cyber Warfare / Anti-Satellite Warfare RUS ./. EST, RUS ./. GEO
Cyber Operations North Korea, Iran
Nuclear Deterrence Afghanistan / Iraq
Insurgencies Al Qaeda
Global Terrorist Network Civil unrest
Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Yemen, Ukraine Natural Disaster
Haiti, Japan, USA23-Aug-14 7
Challenge #3Multiple Actors in Crisis Management
23-Aug-14 8
UN OSCE EU NATO NGO PMCGO SingleNation Others
Action
Action
Action
Action
Action
Action
Action
Action
Action
Uncoordinated action generate uncoordinated / unplanned effectsCrisis resolution hard to predictSuccess depending on continuous presence and engagement of the ICLong-term commitment required (high costs)
Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects Effects
Challenge #4Battlefield of the Media
23-Aug-14 9
Challenge #5 Revolution in Technology and Enhanced Connectivity
23-Aug-14 10
"The extent, depth, andspeed of the new globalmedia have created anew species of effects...The military must understand, anticipate, andplan for this new dynamic." (Margaret H. Belknap, 2001)
Challenge #6The unknown unknowns
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“Military Facts”
MediaSocial structures
Political / Civilstructures
Key Players/Actors Economy
TransportationFinance
Culture
CommunicationGrids
Peace Crisis/Conflict War Transition Post War Peace
People Tradition
ReligionLawEmotions
Education
“War is merely the failure of communications by other means.” (Clausewitz adapted by UJ)
Center of Gravity: people’s perception
Info Ops(2000)StratCom(2009)
Military Engagement in 21st Century Crisis Management
23-Aug-14 12
23-Aug-14 13
Alvin TofflerUS Author and Futurologist
Crisis Prevention / Disaster Preparedness
23-Aug-14 14
23-Aug-14 15
Nature of Conflict
16-May-16 15
23-Aug-14 16
Civ-Mil Partnering in 21st Century Crisis Management
23-Aug-14 17
23-Aug-14 18
Need a <br>..?
16-May-16 19
Strategy First · Starting with the WHY
23-Aug-14 20
Who needs to be involvedStakeholder Analysis
23-Aug-14 21
Planning Considerations #1People in the Focus
23-Aug-14 22
Planning Considerations #2Successful CommunicationsPaul WatzlawikOne cannot NOT communicate!Dave WatermanEBC · Effects-based CommunicationsMarketingAIDA · Attention, Interest, Desire, ActionMark Laity5S · Simplify, Shorten, Share, Sustain, and StaffChip & Dan Heath: Made to StickSUCCESS · Simple, Unexpected, Concrete, Credible, Emotional, StorieSG. Richard Shell, Mario Moussa: The Art of WOOUsing strategic persuasion to sell your ideas
23-Aug-14 23
Did you ever try to explain to your best friend how to play chess on your behalf?Commanders, Planners, Units crash too often.
We must replace the delusion of control by reality of influence. (Mark Laity)
Planning Considerations #3Doing right things right
23-Aug-14 24
23-Aug-14 25
Planning Consideration #4
Planning Consideration #5Perception · how we look at others and others look at us
23-Aug-14 26
23-Aug-14 27
Planning Consideration #6Instruments of Power · Strategic Lines of Engagement
23-Aug-14 28
Political CivilMilitary Economic
The Product powered by the Power of Information
23-Aug-14 29
Political CivilMilitary Economici = 0 1 i = 1 MPEC i > 1 exponentially adding value
International Design for Conflict Resolution
16-May-16 30
23-Aug-14 31
Comprehensive Crisis CommunicationsAims Implementation as a process To ensure Consistency and Credibility of Communications by ALL means through Comprehensive Coordination Linking policy with action Avoid “Say-Do-Gap”
Perception Management at its best!23-Aug-14 32
.gnikniht fo yaw tnereffid A
Implementation and Integration of in
23-Aug-14 33
Analysis(KnowledgeDevelopment)Analysis(KnowledgeDevelopment)
PlanDevelopment
PlanDevelopment
Execution(or on the shelf)Execution(or on the shelf)
Assess
ment
Assess
ment ComprehensiveOperationsCycle
Comprehensive Crisis Communications PlanningPhasesInitial Situation Awareness of potential / actual crisis
Appreciation of the environment Stakeholder Analysis Estimate of the situation
Plan Development Development of a Concept of Operations Plan Development
Execution Review & Update Assessment
Transition16-May-16 34
23-Aug-14 35
Human Terrain Analysis & UnderstandingSystem Status, System Behavior, System Dynamics
23-Aug-14 36
16-May-16 37
Comprehensive Crises Communications Planning(1) System Analysis & Knowledge DevelopmentExample 1: Global Warming
23-Aug-14 38
Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning(1) System Analysis & Knowledge Development Example 1: New York City’s comprehensive waterfront plan Vision 2020
23-Aug-14 39
Planning ProcessPhase 1 (Spring 2010)Identify goals and issuesPhase 2 (Summer 2010)Identify opportunities and prioritiesPhase 3 (Fall 2010)Identify Recommendations
Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning (1) System Analysis & Knowledge Development Example 2: Water Scarcity, Everglades, Australia
23-Aug-14 40
Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning (1) System Analysis & Knowledge Development Example 3: Cyber Security Skills Crisis
23-Aug-14 41
Comprehensive Crisis CommunicationsConsiderations for Plan Development, Execution and Assessment
16-May-16 42
Comprehensive Crisis CommunicationsConsiderations for Plan Development, Execution and Assessment
16-May-16 43
Make the difference –give people the choice.
Action greater impact on people’s perceptions, motivation, behaviour.
Are we doing right things… right?
Comprehensive Crisis Communications Planning(2) Plan DevelopmentExample 1: Climate Change
23-Aug-14 44
Driving Analogy
23-Aug-14 45UNCLASSIFIED
