38°

37.5°

37°

123° 122° 121°

google: cisn shakemap nchttp://www.cisn.org/shakemap/nc/shake/

The Next Bay Area Earthquake

What to expectWhat is the Hazard in San Jose?Dr. John Boatwright, Bay Area Earthquake Alliance Co-Chair

Co-Regional Coordinator for Northern California US Geological Survey

California urban areas areprisoners of the Plate Boundary

E-ASF Bay Area

Greater LA

North American Plate

Pacific Plate

Pacific platePacific platePacific platePacific plate

North AmericanNorth Americanplateplate

North AmericanNorth Americanplateplate

40 mm/yr Farallons-Sierra Nevada

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15151515

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“We need to correct our style of architecture … to work a savings of untold sums of money in the future” - San Jose Mercury News

October 29, 1868

Hayward Earthquake

1868

San Francisco

1906

1989

Loma Prieta

Bay Area Earthquake History

1600-2000 A.D.

Cum

ulat

ive

M0,

dyn

e-cm

Moment Accumulation in the SF Bay Region

In the next 30 years there is a 63% prob-ability, nearly a 2/3rds chance, of an M6.7 or larger earthquake in the greater Bay Area. Hazard is highest in the East Bay due to the larger number of faults there, including the Hayward fault.(UCERF2 Report, 2007)

2007-2036

21%

31%

6%

3%

1%

3%63%

7%

11%

M ≥ 6.7

Hazard is highest in the East Bay due to the larger number of faults including theHayward Fault.

1868 Hayward

Earthquake

this ShakeMapis based on

damage reports-there were only

260,000 people in the Bay Area

38°

-121.5° -121°

the shakingwas strongest in San Leandro and Hayward

14

Hayward Fault Earthquake:The Infrastructure Earthquake

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Animation of Shaking from a M7.0 on the Hayward FaultSan Leandro Epicenter

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/hayward/

QuickTime™ and aH.264 decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and aH.264 decompressor

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Losses by county - M7.0 scenario

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Solano

Sonoma

Santa Clara

Santa Mateo

San Francisco

Marin

Contra Costa

Alameda

$0 $40B $80 $100

Economic Loss ($Billions)

What will happen in the next large earthquake?

• Soft-Story Damage & Failures

• Fire Following Earthquake

Soft-Story Buildings

18

soft-story retrofits in San Francisco are still voluntary

rather than mandatory

1989 Favorable Fire Conditions

caused by soft-story failure