36th Euroheat & Power Congress27-28 May 2013, Vienna, Austria

Organised by

Heat Roadmap Europe

Professor Henrik LundAalborg University

Pre-study 2 Heat Roadmap Europe

Aalborg UniversityDavid Connolly

Brian Vad MathiesenPoul Alberg Østergaard

Bernd MöllerSteffen Nielsen

Henrik Lund

PlanenergiDaniel Trier

Halmstad UniversityUrban PerssonSven Werner

Ecofys Germany GmbHJan Grözinger

Thosmas BoersmansMichelle Bosquet

Motivation

Energy Road Map 2050 (EU commission)Road Map 2050 (McKinsey et.al)The energy report – 100% renewable energy by 2050 (WWF)Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 (IEA)World Energy Outlook (IEA)Deciding the Future – Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050

Consensus/general: ”Combined heat & power (CHP) and district heating (DH) are important”

The European Commission in the Energy Roadmap 2050 communication:“An analysis of more ambitious energy efficiency measures and cost-optimal policy is required. Energy efficiency has to follow its economic potential. This includes questions on to what extent urban and spatial planning can contribute to saving energy in the medium and long term; how to find the cost-optimal policy choice between insulating buildings to use less heating and cooling and systematically using the waste heat of electricity generation in combined heat and power plants.”

. . . but fail to quantify to which extent these options can be used in the future energy system . . .

GIS Mapping Energy System Modelling

District Heating Demands

District Heating Resources

Indicate Costs

BAU (References)

District Heating Alternatives

Results (PES, CO2, Costs)

Methodology

GIS based information

Urban areas (Heating Demands)Power and Heat Generation

Waste ManagementIndustrial waste heat potential

Geothermal heatSolar Thermal

Energy System Analyses Model

CHP

Boiler

Electro-lyser

Heatpump and

electric boiler

PP

RES electricity

Fuel

RES heat

Hydro waterHydro

storageHydro

power plant

H2 storage

Electricity storagesystem

Import/Export

fixed and variable

Electricitydemand

Cooling device

Coolingdemand

Transport demand

Processheat

demandIndustry

Cars

Heat storage

Heat demand

Wind production Eltra 1996 (2042 MWh pr MW)

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

MWh/h

Wind production Eltra 2000 (2083 MWh pr MW)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

MWh/h

Wind production Eltra 2001 (1964 MWh pr MW)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

MWh/

h

PV production Sol300 2001

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

kWh/

h

PV production Sol300 2002

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

kWh/

h

Wave Power estimated year 1999

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

kW

h/h

pr.

m w

av

e f

ron

t

Wave Power estimated year 2001

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

kW

h/h

pr.

m w

av

e f

ron

t

www.EnergyPLAN.eu

Showing DH

benefits in 2 steps

Step 1: (Energy Efficiency)- Increasing DH to 30% then 50%- Increasing CHP- Using Oil/Natural gas in CC-CHP

Step 2: (Utilise waste and RE sources)- Industrial waste heat- Waste incineration- Geothermal heat- Large-scale Solar Thermal

Future: EU Energy Roadmap 2050

Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by the National Technical University in Athens

Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27: Reference: Business-as-usual CPI: Updated business-as-usual EE CCS Nuclear High RE

2030/2050 Modelling

EU CPIPRIMES Data

2030 & 2050 Model

District Heating Alternatives

2010 = 12% DH2030 = 30% DH2050= 50% DH

Results(PES, CO2, Costs)

EU Energy Roadmap 2050

Current Policy Initiatives (CPI)

HRE1 Conclusion:

50% DH and CHP

Decrease primary energy supply and especially fossil fuels and CO2 emissions

Decrease annual costs of energy in Europe by approximately €14 Billion in 2050

Create additional 220,000 jobs over the period 2013-2050

Further integration of RES

LESS FUEL

LESS MONEY

MORE EU JOBS

MORE RE

Cost and Jobs:

Saved fuel costs of annual approx. 30 Billion EUR in 2050

In total cost are reduced by 14 Billion EUR in 2050

Additional investments of a total of 500 billion EUR

Additional jobs from to 2013 to 2050:

8-9 million man-year in total Approx. 220,000 jobs.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

IEA EU CPI HRE RE EU CPI HRE RE

2010 2030 2050

Ann

ual

cost

s [B

illi

on €

]

Annual EU27 costs for heating buildings in 2010 to 2050

Annual investment costs

Fixed operation costs

CO2 emission costs

Marginal operation cost

Fuel

Future: EU Energy Roadmap 2050Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by the National Technical University in Athens

Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27: Reference: Business-as-usual CPI: Updated business-as-usual Energy Efficiency (EU-EE) Carbon Capture & Storage Nuclear High Renewable Energy

HRE2: Is district heating a good idea if we implement a lot of energy efficiency in the buildings?

Energy Modelling

EU-EEPRIMES Data

2030 & 2050 Model

District Heating Alternatives

2010 = 12% DH2030 = 30% DH2050= 50% DH

Results(PES, CO2, Costs)

EU Energy Roadmap 2050

Energy Efficiency (EE)

Key Measures in EU-EE Scenario

High renovation rates for existing buildings due to better/more financing and planned obligations for public buildings (more than 2% refurbishment per year)

Passive houses standards after 2020

Obligation of utilities to achieve energy savings in their customers' energy use over 1.5% per year (up to 2020)

Strong minimum requirements for energy generation, transmission and distribution including obligation that existing energy generation installations are upgraded to the

EU-EE Scenario

Heat Demand Concerns

Hot water demand decreases by 50% between 2010 and 2050

Specific Heat Demands reduce by 70% between 2010 and 2050

EU-EE Scenario63% Drop in Heat DemandsCost B€300/year 2010-2050

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Add

itio

nal C

ost o

f E

nerg

y E

ffic

ienc

y M

easu

res

(€/k

Wh

Sav

ed)

Heat Demand Reduction (%)

HRE-EE Hot Water Growth = +16%

Residential and non-residential buildings is expected to grow by 32% and 42% respectively between 2015 and 2050

Population will grow by 3.2% between 2010 and 2050.

Individuals are likely to take more showers and baths in the future than they do today.

People are not expected to live with one another as much in the future.

At present, there are regions in Europe where the use of hot water is limited due to technical and financial limitations.

HRE-EE Space Heating = -47%

Implementing District Heating

1. Individual boilers are replaced by district heating: 30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050 Individual heat pumps are not replaced

2. Individual cooling units are replaced with district cooling. 10% in 2030 and 20% in 2050 Natural cooling and absorption heat pumps are both used.

Heat Demand by Source

EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

GeothermalHeat PumpsDirect ElectricitySolarBiomassGasOilSolidsDistrict HeatingH

eat D

eman

ds (

TW

h/ye

ar)

Implementing District Heating

3. New DH production facilities are constructed: CHP, boilers, heat pumps, and thermal storage.

4. Additional resources can now be utilised by the district heating network: Industrial surplus heat: 100 TWh/year Direct geothermal heat: 100 TWh/year Waste incineration: 150 TWh/year Large-scale solar thermal: 100 TWh/year Wind power for large-scale heat pumps: 65 TWh/year

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE DH Supply

EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

IndustryWasteGeothermalSolarHeat PumpsBoilerCHP

Dis

tric

t Hea

ting

Sup

ply

for

Res

iden

tial

an

d S

ervi

ces

Bui

ldin

gs (

TW

h/ye

ar)

23

Results

Brussels, Belgium 24

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE Primary Energy Supply & CO2

EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Biomass Waste RES

Pri

mar

y E

nerg

y S

uppl

y (T

Wh/

year

)

Car

bon

Dio

xide

Em

issi

ons

(X, M

t/ye

ar)

Brussels, Belgium 25

EU-EE vs. HRE-EEFossil Fuels

EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Biomass Waste RES

Pri

mar

y E

nerg

y S

uppl

y (T

Wh/

year

)

Car

bon

Dio

xide

Em

issi

ons

(X, M

t/ye

ar)

Brussels, Belgium 26

EU-EE vs. HRE-EE Additional Resources

EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Industry Waste Incineration^ Geothermal Large-Scale Solar

Hea

t Ava

ilab

le f

rom

Unc

onve

ntio

nal R

e-so

urce

s du

e to

Dis

tric

t Hea

ting

* (T

Wh/

year

)

Brussels, Belgium 27

EU-EE vs. HRE-EEHeat & Cooling Costs -15%

EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Energy Efficiency Investments Heating System InvestmentsCooling System Investments Centralised Electricity & Heat PlantsFuel CO2

Tot

al C

osts

for

Hea

ting

and

Coo

ling

in

the

Res

iden

tial

and

Ser

vice

s S

ecto

rs

(B€/

year

)

Case Study: Århus

Legend

District heating area

Built up areas

Aarhus municipality

District heating is an attractive solution in areas with a high heat density

District heating can be seen as an efficiency measure similar to reductions in heat demand, because it enables the use of fuels in a more efficient way

Heat reductions in buildings can be combined with district heating so that it is competitive with individual solutions

Conclusions

Conclusions (1)

If we continue under a business-as-usual scenario, then district heating can: Reduce the PES Reduce the CO2 emissions Reduce the costs of the

energy system Use more renewable energy

Conclusions (2)

If we implement a lot of energy efficiency measures, then district heating will:

Meet the same goals, ie: Utilise the same amount of

fossil fuels Enable the same CO2

emission reductions Cost approximately 10% less

www.heatroadmap.eu

How to get the report….