31 October – 2 September 2011 Young-Youn Park Numerical Model Development Division, Korea...
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Transcript of 31 October – 2 September 2011 Young-Youn Park Numerical Model Development Division, Korea...
31 October – 2 September 2011
Young-Youn Park
Numerical Model Development Division, Korea Meteorological Administration
KMA report
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KMA global ensemble: ChangesOperation
period 2001.3.1 - 2003.11.1 - 2006.7.1- 2008.9.1- 2010.12- 2011.5-
Machine 1st (NEC SX5) 2nd (Cray X1E) 3rd (Cray XE6)
Data Asssim 2dOI → 3dOI
3dOI → 3dVar 3dVar 3dvar(self-
cycle)4dVar(from
40km model)
4dVar(from 25km model)
Model GDAPS (JMA GSM) UM 7.5(UKMO) UM 7.7
Horizontal Res T106 T213(60km) 40km
Vertical Res 21 30 40 50 70
Perturbation method
(Target area)Breeding(Global)
Breeding + Factor Rotation(NH)
ETKF(localized in
hor and vert)
ETKF*
Model error NO RP, SKEBRun per days 1 (12UTC) 2 (00, 12UTC) 2 (00, 12UTC)
Lead time(days) 10 10 10
Members 16 (16 members + 1 control) (16+1)*2 24
Post Processing NO Bias Correction (Bo Cui) NO
TIGGE data TIGGE data
Old EPS data: 16 Jan 2008 ~ 30 Nov 2010 No data since 1 Dec 2010
o because of network problem(too slow to ftp the new ensemble data ~ 64GB/day)
Tried two way: o To enhance N/W speed to ECMWF recently succeed
(80min/32GB) under testo To send data to NCAR using LDM difficulty in setting LDM
Changes in TIGGE data Resolution: (Operation 0.5625deg, TIGGE 1.25 deg) (0.5625, 0.375 deg) Size: old 10GB/day new 64GB/day(later 84GB/day)
Parameter 8 P levels * 5 par + gph at 50 hPa (OK) 4 pars (no q) 1 pt level (320K) * 1 par (pv) (X) OK 2 pv level * 3 parameter (X) pt (no u, v) Single level * 28 parameter (6 parameters)19 pars
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Other data Cyclone data: ftp://cxml:[email protected]
Not working after 30 Dec 2010 Security issue with IT team Will resume later …
Model description(metadata): ready to update
KMA’s verification statistics report(to LC on EPS verification):
Deterministic score: 200901- (NH), 201103-(TR, SH) CRPS: under checking if KMA use the same method as
instructed Reliability table parameters: 200901- (NH), 201103-(TR,
SH), T850, Z500, PMSL only
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KMA EPS Flow chart
Global 4DVarN512L70(25km)
Trim obstore
OPS(24M)
ETKF
UM ForecastN320L70M24(40km)
Trimmed obstore
varobs
IC Perturbations
Varobsobstore
analysis
Previous cycle(-12 hours)
Next cycle(+12 hours)
OPS background
ETKF background
OPS backgroundETKF background
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Summer 2009 (.5.23-6.25) : Z500 OP vs MOGREPS(40km, 90km)
RMSE & SPREAD(m) Z500(SH)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Lead Time (days)
RMSE
& S
PREA
D (m
)
RMSE_N320 SPREAD_N320
RMSE_N144 SPREAD_N144
CRPS Z500(SH)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Lead Time (days)
CRPS
CRPS_N320
CRPS_N144
MO(40km50L)MO(90km38L)OPER
RMSESPREAD
NH
SH
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Summer 2009 (.5.23-6.25) : T850, MSLP OP vs MOGREPS(40km, 90km)
MO(40km50L)MO(90km38L)OPER
RMSESPREAD
T850
MSLP
May 2011: 40km L50 vs L70
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