31 August – 2 September 2009
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Transcript of 31 August – 2 September 2009
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A forward-looking review of the Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division (SWFSC) and its implementation of the US AMLR Program
31 August – 2 September 2009
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Welcome
Thank you
Personal introductions
Logistics
Agenda• Monday – Introduction, Krill and krill-dependent
predators
• Tuesday – Krill and krill-dependent predators contd., Finfish and benthic invertebrates, Marine biodiversity and spatial management
• Wednesday – Follow-up interviews, reporting, etc.
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Outline
• Acronyms• Straw man vision• Terms of reference and an extended example• Mandates• Personnel• Physical resources• Budget• A year in the life of the US AMLR Program
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Common Acronyms• CCAMLR (Comm): Commission
for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources
• SC: Scientific Committee• WG-EMM: Working Group on
Ecosystem Monitoring and Management
• WG-FSA: Working Group on Fish Stock Assessment
• WG-SAM: Working Group on Statistics, Assessments, and Modeling
• CM: conservation measure
• SSMU: small-scale management unit
• CEP: Committee for Environmental Protection (Antarctic Treaty System)
• MPA: marine protected area• VME: vulnerable marine
ecosystem
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Vision
The AERD will meet NOAA’s mandates and provide the best scientific information available to implement ecosystem-based management of living marine resources. We will achieve this objective by
• optimizing the maintenance and update of key time-series data and the conduct of project-based studies that fill important information gaps;
• using new and improved sampling technologies to extend the scope of our work;
• integrating and synthesizing data using best practice analytical approaches;
• anticipating future needs for advice and threats to sustainability, including climate change;
• working proactively to address these needs and mitigate these threats;
• leading the scientific community through transparent, impartial, and accountable participation in committees, working groups, and partnerships;
• training the next generation of scientists and building the scientific capacities of partner institutions and nations; and
• communicating effectively with stakeholders and decision makers.
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TERMS OF REFERENCE (WITH AN EXAMPLE)
What this review is intended to achieve …
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Terms of Reference 1
Review needs for scientific advice related to ecosystem-based management of krill and finfish fisheries
Evaluate ability of the AERD to provide advice given• the design and conduct of its present research and
monitoring efforts• the financial and physical resources available to
accomplish such work• its present staffing level and expertise
Identify areas where directed research, expanded field operations, and investments in new technologies can improve or expand advice
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3 million tons ÷ 15 SSMUs = ?
Advise on Krill-Fishery Management
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Data → Analysis → Advice• Historical catch• Predator demand• Krill biomass• Krill “surplus”• Monitoring
2002-03 2004-05
2008-09
0
10
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30
40
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78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
Years
% C
oh
ort
su
rviv
al
0
3000
6000
9000
Po
pu
lati
on
siz
e (p
airs
)
2006-07
* Lots of collaboration with BAS
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Gaps, Threats, and OpportunitiesGaps and threats catalyze opportunities
• “Fish are … an area of considerable uncertainty.”
• “… estimates of predator abundance were currently considered inappropriate because of the incomplete data ….”
• “The Scientific Committee noted the generic nature of the concerns raised by … and asked that they provide explicit details to the next meetings of WG-SAM and WG-EMM.” [This did not happen.]
• GW is the main AMLR PI on the SSMU issue, but now he is Director…
http://www.nordic-resins.dk/krillmesteren.htm
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Expansion and Climate Change• Feedback management in which the spatial allocation
is adjusted on the basis of monitoring holds promise when climate is changing
One survey onlySurveys every 2 yrs
0.0
0.4
0.8
0.0 0.4 0.8
prop
ortio
n of
yea
rsfis
hes
not “
depl
eted
”
catch as fractionof allocation
Allocate using [demand – krill biomass](with climate change)
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Terms of Reference 2
• Review needs for scientific advice related to emerging issues (e.g., climate change and marine spatial planning)
• Evaluate whether “traditional” work constrains ability to advise on emerging issues
• Determine how the Program might be expanded to best advise on emerging issues while maintaining capacity to address traditional issues
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SSMUs within a Larger Spatial Mosaic
• Prioritized development of “representative” MPA network
• Should ensure future opportunities for fishing
• Many CMs have spatial elements (e.g., VMEs and new or exploratory fisheries)
• More robust to consider an overarching framework for spatial management (i.e., marine spatial planning)
• AERD has data and existing work fits within such a framework
Adapted from 2009 Report of WG-EMMOriginal work by British Antarctic Survey
SSMUs
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Terms of Reference 3
• Identify ways to leverage resources and expertise with those of internal and external partners to build synergies that simultaneously address NOAA's broad interests in Antarctic research, the mandates of the US AMLR Program, and other national or international research programs
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Monitoring Synergies• AERD monitors krill predators
at 2 sites in 2 SSMUs
• Feedback management seems to demand more monitoring
• Many sites are visited by tourists
• Coordination with CEP or other entities (e.g., Oceanites) could be synergistic → AERD representation on US del to CEP
Chinstrap
colonies
Adapted from WG-EMM-08/8
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MANDATESWhy we do our job …
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Mandates
AMLR Convention Act of 1984• “United States basic and directed research programs
concerning the marine living resources of the Antarctic are essential to achieve the United States goal of effective implementation of the objectives of the Convention”
• “the Secretary of Commerce … shall design and conduct the program of directed scientific research … supplemental to and coordinated with the United States Antarctic Program”
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Mandates Continued
Article II of the Convention• prevent decrease in the size of harvested populations to
levels below those ensuring stable recruitment (≥ level that which ensures the greatest net annual increment)
• maintain ecological relationships between harvested, dependent and related populations and restore depleted populations to the levels defined above
• prevent changes or minimize risk of changes in the marine ecosystem which are not potentially reversible over two or three decades, taking into account … the effects of environmental changes
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Mandates Continued
Article IX of the ConventionThe Commission shall …
•“formulate, adopt and revise conservation measures on the basis of the best scientific evidence available, ….”
Report of the CCAMLR Performance Review Panel
•“Protected areas” → MPAs
•“Status of living resources” → recovery plans, orderly development of krill fishery
•“Ecosystem approach” → coherent and coordinated monitoring
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Other Mandates
Magnuson Stevens Act – enhance international cooperation• provide recommendations to Dept of State
• strengthen regional fishery management organizations
NOAA Annual Guidance Memo (5 Aug 2009) – advance NOAA’s capacity to support ecosystem-based management• comprehensive marine spatial planning
• research the effects of climate change on ocean ecosystems
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PERSONNEL, FACILITIES, AND BUDGET
The resources (currently) available to do our job …
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AERD Leadership• George Watters – Director
• Stephanie Sexton – “Deputy”
• Mike Goebel – Leader, Pinnipeds
• Christopher Jones – Leader, Finfishes and benthic invertebrates
• Christian Reiss – Leader, Krill and oceanography
• Wayne Trivelpiece – Leader, Seabirds
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Personnel Continued• Amy Van Cise – Administration
and scientific technician
• Anthony Cossio – Acoustics and logistics (ships)
• Douglas Krause – Pinnipeds and logistics (camps)
• Jefferson Hinke – SCEP, Seabirds
• Vacant – Stock assessment
• Raul Vasquez Del Mercado – NOAA Corps, Camp manager and scientific observer coordination
* 11 FTEs + 1 NOAA Corps = 118 yrs cumulative Antarctic experience
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Ships and CampsR/V Yuzhmorgeologiya
Copacabana
Cape Shirreff
0
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45
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1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Cost
($k
) / D
ay
Char
ter D
ays
* includes mobilization0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Estim
ated
Cam
p Ex
pens
es ($
k)
Additional NSF support for Copa > $160k/yr
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Gaps, Threats, and Opportunities• AUVs etc – exciting but
significant hurdles
• Trawlers (partner with Norway?) – unique experiments, pelagic fishes easy, oceanography harder
• Other vessels – difficult to schedule, costly, may need > 1 platform, small ships lose time to weather
• ? – other ideas?
?
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Gaps, Threats, and Opportunities
• US AMLR funds larger share
• Partner with Poland
• Seek new NSF funds – more project-based work and proposal writing (less monitoring?)
• More technology, less hands on (many time series will be lost)
Australian Antarctic Division
> US AMLR $
Copacabana
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Budget
0.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
$ Th
ousa
nds
Allocated Vessel Funds
Program Appropriation
Total Allocation
Total Expenses
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Contracts and Grants (2009)
Ship-based• Oceanography ($41k + 2)
• Phytoplankton ($63k + 2)
• Krill and zooplankton ($200k + 7)
• Benthic invertebrates ($33k + 2)
• Finfishes ($8k + 2)
• Seabirds and marine mammals ($40k + 4)
Land-based• Copa Seabirds
($80k + 5)*
• Cape Shirreff Seabirds ($61k + 3)
• Pinnipeds ($57k + 4)
* “pass-through” funds from NSF may need to be picked up by the AERD
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A YEAR IN THE LIFE OF THE US AMLR PROGRAM
The time available to do our job …
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The AMLR Field Season
J F M A M J J A S O N D
field campsresearch vessel
field camps
demobilize
mobilize•purchasing•contracting•permitting•shipping•packing
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CCAMLR Meetings (baseline)
J F M A M J J A S O N D
US Del WG-SAM
TASO
WG-EMM
WG-FSA
SC
Commprepare•submit data•write papers•develop agendas•read papers
US Del
prepare
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2009 – Other Commitments
CEP WS-VME
* vessel solicitation, WS-VME and review preparation, etc. not included
SCAR
GFDL
GLOBEC
Gordon
J F M A M J J A S O N D
SG-ASAM
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The Leftovers
• Field season + CCAMLR meetings + typical commitments (2009) = little “free time”
• Limited ability to participate in other meetings (e.g., ICED (SOS), SCAR, ASLO, ESA, etc.), write papers, etc.
J F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N DJ F M A M J J A S O N D
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WRAP UP
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Tradeoffs at Multiple Scales
Small staff, increasing costs, and jam-packed annual calendar …
• tradeoffs between field work, CCAMLR meetings, general science meetings, writing papers and proposals, etc.
• tradeoffs between field projects (e.g., “go here vs. go there”)
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Trigger Questions 1 – GW Musings
Is the current approach sufficient? What should be expanded? What should be de-emphasized?
• Current approach has been successful but could add mesopelagic fishes, increase winter studies, use technology to expand spatial and temporal coverage, and experiment with krill trawlers.
• Rotating people to CCAMLR meetings?
How should the AERD balance the collection of time-series data with project-based studies?
• Critical to maintain time series because they provide context for interpreting future changes, but can Leg 2 always be project-based?
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Trigger Questions 2 – GW Musings
Are the AMLR survey areas and study taxa appropriate given the likely impacts of climate change?
• Expand coverage to the western Weddell Sea, consider winter field work?
What specific aspects of climate change should be the focus of future research?
• Downscale IPCC scenarios with ROMS etc. and use output to predict changes in phenologies and distributions of animals, observe consequences of ocean acidification, work in marginal ice zone, identify robust management strategies and sensible reference points.
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AMLR DATA SETSKrill + Oceo. → Finfishes + Benthic Inverts. → Pinnipeds → Seabirds
* We have lots of collaborators