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MilitaryAnalysts ConferenceCall

ModeratorTam Jonu, OSD-Publk AffairsOn BackgroundTranscriber.MurphyMs. Jones: This IsTare ce call thbmorning. Iam oined by- d b .Ms Jones Henasa few opening comments or you and men he'd be gbd tolak* yourquestions,so. J S ~ l- be reminded mb Is on oKK roundon so youm ask 4 to only ale a.senior *ten" office1 Wim mai, rl turn itww top ood morning everybody 1ust got back from Bagndad tost week My DOSS=as tmm yesterday and thenofcourse Gen Myus was l h m at week aswl A n a lnrk con-panngnoiec between all of LS. andall of us who haveMendoing Ih r for ever a Yearover a w ar and a hlf or so we have1 omea w a y uobabw momootknlsttc after this WP thenwe ever have.C1any form Rwacdi f fe rentonmybntr ipmanI thmnontheyarandaha l f tha t Ioeii doing IbIs And i ts a lot of mmgs Imean dearly thes@ntficam cbvmei- maviolence me-ties aregoingdown. tmoing m me rightairwction Butmore Importantly w h a n evxtentouttheie Isthe anttude ofthe people haschanged The attitudeof lhw IraqiSecurityForcesHavechanged they'vegota Wmce to thenstop bmIdon1 hink they hadb e h he/m buildingthekindof serf confluenceu i a yo^ mM to be Dito deveopa m h r y or profeulonil police-And me peoplehwe dvope mpc hink forthe ~cuntyterchat they h a m i lhi n*longbma ~o .I m- mmgsamwomhg in m pretty po lbvdimdb Wedont wnt to g ooopunisoc tx.1 we al l-UI m md I - ort prettygood a b o ~ h a w

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So things are trending well. As you know any big event could urn ftbwound. You know - t fMuqtacta'sm um dcMe hey d idn't llke'the way ttis politicsoere going, Ihey could pull tnolhtfApril kindof uplMng Ike they did about thls lime iatiyear. But ri@~low It to ok like Sadr 18moving n a poltkail d i m . ifwcan law him engaged n p o i i , thm I hink we'll beOKon that fronthen lastly we really need some help on the politicalside Iwont

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the fron tbr corps toilitperse-and workdirectlywith the tribal I t e r me same day they did in theFattah (sp)m southwasirastan (sp) recently.I on't know that mats going 10 satisfy everybody but think lhdw h u he's trying todo rightnowb d b m ~ ailiunly ana work M poittca y t h m q h the ronber c u p andmrough h k minlttarA m thanabout all I now aboutBaluchbmnnght now. othw ttum we stay concernadThe ti-d munuas to m ow FJ know. s m e d t n e e st rd m s or somed he - Ks not j u t thef ~ f t at iely onb m g aoto to go tn m~ gh aluchbtenfmm w u ourquestion We've got moat dour food goods an0 stufi go by road th re sh Baii.chbmn 10get nAtgn ankm TO he bast of myknowledge noneOfttiat has bedisruptedJeffMcCaudand Genera thte b Jan McCamrnd You bilkeda itde bt about the four ofcuifnt operations for cmph foc ~naroutcuedBagMad. incluoing Ramad.andMosul thatappear at 1 time* to b* problematical Ano n kmplno wMn your comments abedIraqiSecurityForces, the fellowswho ara out in Falulah here about a month or BO ago.wtwidoyou th,nk mat ne'm going to beaole to turn controlof Falujatibackmu10 he Iraqb andma theMannas c i s t t y m ~c hackoutofmere?

We're In the pm ce u right now ofworking with the ocalgovfnment in FalluJJl tovet and come w with a oolica forcewhich we think isma teadina e d m tiaca of that Afl YCUknow, one of tha w a n 'handled hb b brinaiwiutside police ind ou kide mil ilary- Iraqirnltoy- Into Fallujah to do the policing and law antereenrentalongwith our Marines. Right now,we've got a good program to turnMsback over to tha Fa llulaM and the Fa liujan leadershipandwe don't pk n on m aking -and Idon? Know that tnrwere mistakes made last time but itwclear that the police form that we had inmerewas not he police forcewe needad. So they'rebeing very carefu laboutwho they're hiring on to do that so that they are doing that as Iraqis andfor the bettorm antofFaflujah and not the insurgency.And at the same time, we're opening he door for construction goingh o provide services andthatIs an getting batteron a day-today basis. But the police are signing up; here a re plenty ofrecruits out there to do this, and i fs ust amatter ofge tting through the vetting~ s . A n dhooefullv-mu know. Ican't a h ou a limeline- butwa wouldd Rke to notbade towhere~a liuja hto normal-running ity ica nt rememberwhat the numbersa itwas in thereportthb morning- but I hink titre's verW,OM thaf are spmndlngm nfflhtthere now So thWmmovingback towardsome normaloperations.Andwe oughttobeable to back out d mere beforetoo ong,although I don? thinkwe'll takea closeeyeoff of it anytimeTealw onIUnMentltled voice) Any commentson openalons n Ramadi and Mosul?

well, Ramadihashad som e i&r&Ung things happen. Recently he mayorandsomeof the other lead ere hi^havemcoonmd thatthe nsumenti am td ol na RamfKli any flood.Faiiujah had a maty big i m b n the k a d i olks and they don't want ~ a k d io ge t the-Falluiah treatmentas h a w call H So thara have haanwvrmmat aood Indicationsthat he ~ublk

operating out of. And Us difficult o run hose guys down, althoughwe're kmwganeyeon hemandwe're stayingon hem andwe're maintaining heoffensive against these guys. Andwe'redoing it with some success. The Imqis. as we predictedand aswe hoped,areable to get prettygood i n h a d o n on whafs going onout there In theflald thatwe weren't otherwbe- orwe can't

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was Coalition manb ere.And they'vehad IOITM pretty good succasaw mMy. So hopdutyBialwill continue to move in a pasltivedirection. But a1 Anber Provincewill proba w- 1 moan this i sjust Smith talking-will probably be the !adprovincathatwe'l be able to 9% under reasonablecontrol. I hink Mosul,certa'lntyBaghdad, and Satahaddin sp) I hink we'll bnng on boardsoonerthanwewill at Anbar.(Unidentifiedvoice)Wel Ihave one -nd q~9lto tee IKe. y o umkw bout o ui t s t r ueo f t heU S dde-miwicadown.ca~u~MdownontheUde.tioughifyoulOOkat1from his d stance, mere appear* to be pmapn11a n n d oward tha bad g u y attacking moreand more n q So lrq um l u don't wem to -mybfl I'm mistaken- ha w dipped thatitgrtflcamly Are youall concerned about that fact a powiMtyof yo, know, this comingsomewnit between tHe Sh'a and the Sunnis particularly with the renmrtt yutecdiy byOneof theleading Sunno c r n c x m e r e he - to naveKM f endorsed he i m uq a nu and w ha W md o m ?

Ablu le ly . And Imean you're exactly tight-they am attacking the Iraq iSecurityForces, thecampa ignof intimidation and assassinationhasnotslowed down at al. As you know,they've gotten two senior raqigeneralshereh he las t week. So that's not slowing down. IWNsay that glvcn mat campaign hat the recnilteam still standingh 111and mat there's Plenty ofthem to QO n anddo the job. But at the same time ifs starting tomake them pretty angry and theyare starting to do what they need od o and aggressively go on he offensive againat(hew guysand we'm helpingthemdo that So I hhk mars what ifsgoing to take g ~ 4his intimidationcampaignbroken Imean, there wil lbea degreeof th b all along becauset h y want to ensurethat these guys are not successful. But Idon't thhk they 'll be able todo that But you're exactlyright. The trend is toward the Iraqi Security Forces and going after the political eaders.Jel l Babbh: Genarai,Jed Babbh. There's a lot of ap~ubllon, hink aome of It beled byFoggyBottom, that mere's going to be some very substantialredudton ofAmerican forcac in Iraq thUyear. Haveany decisionsbeen taken yet with respect o sutrlanlial reductionsor u t where arew ein the-?IN^ mean youunderstandour planning process and stuff As soon aswe finishthis rotation- he onewe're in m h t now -we should I hink today's forces-we have 145.500and some small numberh raqtoday.That shouldgo down when this rotation is complete n thenext week.hwpfiks or SO. That should 00 down o betwaan135.000and 140.000whichwassortof pre-electionnumbers. We- ~ e n e & l asey will do anassessmenth Juneonwhere wee with the iruuroencv. whereha thinkswe am with thaelections,and makea determinationasto whether or n o t b&I rampdownour forcesbelowthai My expectationk wl h the twoPrettysignificantelections - oreventsanyway, in Octoberand Decemberthatwe wdl be reluctant odraw numbersdown igniflcardiy beforethoseelections But Itwe cou ld be some minornext year, we ought to have -or what GeneralCasey said was we ought to have, you know.ilgnifcantly fewer forces thanwe've got right now, and 1haveno ream todispute thatCertainlythat's thaglide slope we would Ike to beonNow .fs frustratinghen we talk to - especially ma foreign pmson m u I ts -they don~ nd fs ia nd hat we m ~ nhen we say as conoMora-cned.Du cloarty the enamy'n got a vorhm BJ I 4 we can kaaotninns~ n d a rontrol 1 think h a t anartha fimd th* w r w r ought to beable to tooka t a differeni+hapix) and dlfbiwil-skw bra.(Unidentified voice): Gn at. thinks.I T S ot. by me way - he electedand all mat is a ~Qniflcantfactorn that But"w v u d 11along In* MI c w b *nramthe lraqi~ c u r torcesgoing to b* cawbtoandabla to iccpn* missions thatd m omg04 han right now?And they're coming along

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quicker then I hink than a 101of people mtim pio c r h e mmu 22 oette~mruutm w m t tmactivelyengaged n wmhndapenoentoperatom You know me o fOwn i rvIhcaoabliN to beable to w e the kn d of cornmiinkallon 01w the hmllloenm thatw havoof tobe'able to call In fires, so as hasbean done for some time,you know. we do have embeddedforces with many of these uniteand we 'll continua to grow that capability.(Unidentifiedvoice): Can I ollow up on hat? Ihate to interrupt.- y ouh t(Unidentified voice): One f the hings that occurs to me is the questionof thedominanceof. Youknow. one ethnic nrom versus another n t h a ~ a r l i m a n ts m a reflected n the mato-uDofthesecurityservices?"~mean can you tall us you know what IS the roughbreakdown Imean howmany -what percentage&e Kurds, whatpercentageareSht'a, what percentageare SUM~?YOUknow, what is the ethnic reflection In the security services?

That's aquestim you'll have o save for Dave Patmew. Thereare Issuesethnically. As you know, the National Guard is no longer the National Guard. They'renow part ofthe Iraal Amv. Butmevam tilla NationalGuard-I& organization where thevllve In Place.Sothey reflect the neighborhoods hat they live In m a o l i the so& you can expect hem toMprimarilyShfaandupnorthPeshmeroaorKurdiahand hen SunnJs In me Sunnlarena Bul wehave tried to bulldthe Iraqi ~ r m yithout regardto athnlcity but with varying degreesof s m s~ n dat goes back to the baderehlpkfues that we ha wid rying to pick leaden that am not-l h am actually mllW y leadenandnot wing mehtrial eftnfe m l q b w background as - mhow they build their leadership within thecompany ofthe Battalionor the division But we'dall be nalw to think that are m t ethnic and community and tribal Issueswithm the organizationsBut we am trying very hard to makesurowe bulld an army ma ts ethnicallydivene That hasbeen the true success of the Afghan National Army, In that,you know we've taken al l thesediversembes we've put them into - m kidding- an Afghan organization who's, who hatAfghanistan's best Interestat heart, andwe believematmare movingdownthat oad withsome8B with the Iraqi Army aswell(Unidentifiedvoice) To follow LJDan that could vouI d omment onthisassessment In June thatGeneral Casey win conduc t Asyo. lookdbolt) t h i ~ v ef the nsu~en cy nd f ie - f you wlU-(Mpol lw processIn (and?) the pending elections- am youatdl cocicernea?Because tovesfrdav VOJ had sows oadna Imioolb~ n ar l~mmtadmn, Y IW UW houoht nowthey aregoing to have to postpone theflnlizln a coirtitutionby at toaa su months,whichwouldalio hen have the knock-on (7)effectof potconing the subsequentelections by severalmonths Sowe're looking at ttna not occumngh Octoberor December potentially but nextperhapsMarchandJuneor even aterIW wel. me TAL (~ran~~donaldm n i t t r a m UWI - . i n t o r t u n ~ ~ yUW W -doe~navoasixtn-monOi- lwontalaloopholebutanoptionin(heretokickfibthingtothnghl tlx months And ma rt whm you're h ~ r l n gm lx- mo m thing T h haw banm emm~i ings bed It om timeb ~ kd ney orouidnt be abie to mta constitution by ALQ 15and stuff. par t i ~~mr l yf they continued going down the road they're going r ight now Sothat 8 arealcon- I hinx its oo early to think ma hat s going 10 h w p n dgnt now Mcau~eou'lrecall w went throi-gn the same thing wUh the elections in the first place And lots n lot* ofpopwanteo to tick it to the right- he Coflloon. (Grand Aywolta a0 SbUm and louof QUITbKswori(Jtogtrwtomakesuratfwtdantriapp So,tooDyfIhinktoputalotcredence in that We vM do everythingw u n o mi tesum ma1I hn Sluff Staym t i d i n eButnavingsa-amat,yos f iatwNIbeafacto*InhowweshapaourforcNwuhen Bul lhe1menbonao~ind Inarc really con otwhy Im m m d . wauae Iddn-l want togoawnthe road that our force iarig s gang to bemu y oepenaem on me theater- mean on thoNational Assembly and the election*. mm. itwill be moredouly a m l w r alignedwith howwet the traq Socunty Forcaeam doing than It will be me cik> I f toug h Mwl IM OTUlnly

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an Issueorsomething that we will have to think about aswe look at thes ize d he forces thatwehaveover here.Imean t is pass-b e for us to drew down forcesbasedon the Iraq5 m a then be able to bringThem backover lor the elections or plan a TOA for that ime frame - he same way we do mA1ghn Somareore 0 Idd optionsM.nou d may kick trr eMctloni to the rightBoo Maglnrtt General BobMagmnis w i n Tham w a r n o w n pslr irWallS tJournal ma lWmd aCObtChinoworkrq in your AOR and a m n EUCOU Specifto*ly I UkedaboiK Ethiopiaand Sadan and oil companm andarmsand makmg rood8 and rul ly b q n g n tothose pemmlarcountries 1s Chinac reating at leasttorn CENTCOM'sperspective,problemswithme -working w ~omeo f Ihesacountries' egimes hat puhapsam l ivine ha te r orcomfortto error groupsmat we're fighting?Ie hxve MM wen m u a ~ f c t l y * you know t h a w t ~ noriung on ic r ingroad n Afghanistan You a K exact)*right-may hwb nwataung for od nu- witn theSudan 1 em maware sp4cKw ly wn u tney andoing inEitilopiaatt iwgh Iknow heyhwbeen n there But from oar parspacow ngntno*. w m i ~ryng to reaa toomuch brtwoenthelines R IOONs IMemo0alliance bu blng, economic relationship* and n for a nationmat srapidlyrunningaJlofitsownrecourcesandelooMngallovrtheworiotofthe-foraoaYtobeable to xa ub the needsd thoubillionpoopte tn theym t oing to be abto touMtyinfmallv Sow mren'tI a n m mdl- r at i d w n t o w n anvthina hU dmr'ndone(unide nina voice) Ge nm l one test m m n l ust got through the Donamon 'where ine 42""came m andma 3-10 old y w (MIm y SLgofiStbn matmenm ~ h tM b m twung of thoceunft a. they armed by th. insurgent. or anything ikethat?

No rt-ttw ery lnteresung Bothe 42" and me 3-10 cam0 in vary urong YWknow 1 hmx Ihis s the thrd rotation www hadnow and we learn essonsevw bme on how toIntegrate he m now to dow rtaht-tert, C f t ' ~ t dw And thb hascleany beenthema4s ~ ~ c e s s f u lu3 m Im nk they probablywore testeo to a vary small wywI n fes t i ng n i t c h i n g he Mxnne transferd aAhorttyovf n ntrr. bocwe W ay Vwyhad a comment n their reportsAM appearedthat the m d ouyxdidn't have any idea tnat theywere domg this replacement So ether hey ww nw a r e or they didnt think they could tam fu Iadvantxgeofmenew gdy stuff nd you know lastyear during tue ast tmw ver we hed W Mrealy - 1dontwarn tocal tham dumb things oecauwguys901 hurt, 01.1 itwas very clear thaithing* likegong up to in IED and looxlng at K with lhmg u y i n s w of one Ttwt happenedduring me last turnover And you know the Qup tha wen departingwould nvego Lp and ooka l a ~ u ~ p i c i o u s t h n gw h ~ n ymbod t e s h n t h eeededla and l hmthenw~ i i ywou lcome In a m me thing would blow up and then in o w d dhid ing one guy Kwouldhurt t ime g u yWhavnwena lot of tialno* W thoughtwewar s d n g somed t wrtn t i c largenumbwof vhlm accident* and sUfl thatwere going on. but In manyces russ w e he gu y thatweredepanng and not he guys that were coming So mis has b a n very Succefu InIwith310 ~mFuzzyWMwandwmthtroop*outmamandineyfe kemftymiratixo,youknow ieady to do mepo Tnay came inp+wm nd Iaontthlnk t h M w ml*aW o n hbrouoo"Ms.Jones: OK. gentlemon,we havetime for onemorequestion. If anyone as one.At rightwellthank you for Niningusandwe appreciateyour participation.