30hr Childcare: Analysis of potential demand and …...Page 1 of 15 30hr Childcare: Analysis of...
Transcript of 30hr Childcare: Analysis of potential demand and …...Page 1 of 15 30hr Childcare: Analysis of...
Page 1 of 15
30hr Childcare: Analysis of potential demand and sufficiency in Ealing. Summer 2016
Introduction: Calculating the number of eligible children in each Ward of the borough
The methodology utilised by the DfE to predict the number of eligible children in the borough cannot be replicated at Ward level (refer to page 14: Appendix
1 for DfE methodology) Therefore the calculations for the borough have been calculated utilising the most recent data at Ward level concerning the
proportions of parents working, the estimates of 3& 4 year population and the number of those 4yr old ineligible as they are attending school.
The graph below illustrates the predicted lower and upper estimates for eligible 3&4 year olds for each Ward
Page 2 of 15
Executive Summary
The 30hr eligibility criteria related to employment, income and the number of children aged 4 years
attending reception class (who are ineligible for the funding) makes it much more likely that eligible
children will be located in Wards with higher levels of employment and income (potentially up to a
joint household income of £199,998) and lower numbers of children aged 4years in reception class.
Although the 30hr. childcare programme may become an incentive to work in the future, in terms
of the immediate capital bid, the data points to investment in areas which are quite different than
the original proposal, which targeted the 5 wards within the Southall area. The 5 Southall Wards
are estimated to have the fewest number of eligible children for the 30hr programme.
The top 5 Wards estimated to have the highest number of eligible children are amongst the least
employment and income deprived Wards in Ealing with the lowest numbers of children affected by
income deprivation.
Top 5 Wards estimated to have the highest number of eligible children
Lowest 5 Wards estimated to have the fewest number of eligible children
Southfield Lady Margaret
Northfield Norwood Green
Walpole Dormers Wells
East Acton Southall Broadway
North Greenford Southall Green
Page 3 of 15
Methodology for estimating eligible children for 30hr places
The methodology utilised by the DfE1 to predict the number of eligible children for 30hr places in the borough (1700) cannot be replicated at Ward level.
Therefore the number of eligible children for 30hr places per Ward has been calculated utilising the following methodology:
1. We utilised Census Data ONS: LC1601EW - Family status by number of parents working by economic activity, to ascertain the % of all families in each Ward which best matched the 30hr.eligibility criteria (Couple families: both parents working; Lone parent family with parent working and couple families where 1 parent working and 1 parent sick or disabled)
2. We calculated the predicted total number of 3& 4 year olds by Ward utilising the ONS Mid-2014 Lower Layer Super Output Area population estimates.
3. We applied the % of eligible families to the 3& 4 population number to estimate the total number of eligible 3& 4 yr. olds per Ward.
4. We identified the current number of 4yr olds in infant class in primary schools by Ward by utilising the School Census data: 4yrolds attending reception (Summer 2016) and deducted this sum from estimated eligible 3& 4 yr. total as they would be ineligible.
5. This gave us the lower estimate of eligibility by Ward
6. We applied the % differential between the lower estimate and the DFE total estimate to attain the upper estimate per Ward
Limitations to the methodology
Eligibility estimates should be treated as indicative, given that the main source of data regarding parents’ status is from the 2011 Census and the
uncertainty regarding changes in population, employment & earnings since that date affecting levels of eligibility.
Ealing also has one of the highest levels of internal and external migration in the country and there are a number of employment/regeneration
programmes within some of the target areas, which may also affect levels of eligibility.
Sources:
Ealing eligible children for 30hour places by Ward Calculation table
Census Data ONS: LC1601EW - Family status by number of parents working by economic activity
ONS Mid-2014 Lower Layer Super Output Area population estimates.
School Census data: 4yrolds attending reception (Summer 2016) DFE 30hr eligible estimate for the borough
1 Refer to Page 15 for DFE methodology
Page 4 of 15
Calculation table
LC1601EW - Family status by number of parents working by economic activity Census Data ONS Crown Copyright Reserved [from Nomis on 26 July 2016]
Population : All parents aged 16 and over with dependent children Ward All
categories parents
Couple family: Both
parents working
Lone parent family: Parent
working
Number of couple families where 1
parent working and 1 sick or disabled
Total % of all families
Estimated 3& 4
population
% of all families
Number of 4 yr. olds in infant
classes in primary schools
Estimated number
eligible 3 & 4 yr. olds
Plus 30% differential
with DfE estimate of
1700
Acton Central 3043 1238 345 16 1599 52.6 481 253 206 47 61
Cleveland 3286 1582 305 11 1898 57.8 409 236 161 75 97
Dormers Wells 3059 1102 249 36 1387 45.3 388 176 196 -20 -14
Ealing Broadway 2427 1230 171 13 1414 58.3 312 182 118 64 83
Ealing Common 2386 1146 209 7 1362 57.1 284 162 103 59 77
East Acton 3300 1122 429 13 1564 47.4 511 242 154 88 114
Elthorne 3107 1576 350 9 1935 62.3 471 293 219 74 96
Greenford Broadway 4124 1716 440 14 2170 52.6 652 343 277 66 86
Greenford Green 3380 1754 292 15 2061 60.1 477 287 225 62 81
Hanger Hill 3256 1450 201 17 1668 51.2 475 243 162 81 105
Hobbayne 3440 1748 375 18 2141 62.2 498 310 229 81 105
Lady Margaret 3074 1410 197 33 1640 53.4 339 181 176 5 6
Northfield 2964 1952 188 12 2152 72.6 411 298 153 145 188
North Greenford 3192 1664 281 19 1964 61.5 409 252 170 82 107
Northolt Mandeville 3547 1426 419 29 1874 52.8 528 279 223 56 73
Northolt West End 3683 1322 440 24 1786 48.5 543 263 241 22 29
Norwood Green 2867 1016 260 32 1308 45.6 382 174 175 -1 0
Perivale 3377 1572 298 28 1898 56.2 470 264 214 50 65
South Acton 2850 1100 302 15 1417 49.7 414 206 154 52 68
Southall Broadway 2885 898 215 41 1154 40 388 155 220 -65 -46
Southall Green 3228 1086 215 45 1346 41.7 500 209 289 -80 -56
Southfield 2757 1618 169 8 1795 65.1 405 267 87 180 234
Walpole 2762 1746 165 4 1915 69.3 414 287 153 134 174
71994 32474 6515 459 39448
10161 5562 4305 1257 1733
Lower Estimate
Upper Estimate
Page 5 of 15
Identification of current sufficiency within Primary schools. Ranked by Ward with highest predicted number of eligible 3&4 year olds
Top 14 schools originally identified as at high
capacity
Ward Lower estimate eligible 3&4 yrs.
Upper estimate eligible 3&4 yrs.
Primary School % occupancy Planned places 2015/16
SPRING 2016 CENSUS PTE
Southfield 180 234 Southfield Primary 84% 50 42
Northfield 145 188 Fielding Primary 99% 100 99
Little Ealing Primary 96% 78 75
Mount Carmel C Primary 94% 52 49
Walpole 134 174 No Schools East Acton 88 114 East Acton Primary 84% 50 42
John Perryn Primary 86% 50 43
North Greenford 82 107 Greenwood Primary 96% 50 48
Horsenden Primary 100% 100 100
Wood End Infant 94% 100 94
Mandeville School
Hanger Hill 81 105 Holy Family C Primary 87% 60 52
Montpelier Primary 104% 50 52
St Gregory's C Primary 102% 50 51
West Twyford Primary 100% 50 50
Hobbayne 81 105 Brentside Primary 66% 50 33
Hobbayne Primary 138% 50 69
Mayfield Primary 86% 50 43
Cleveland 75 97 Drayton Green Primary 76% 50 38
Hathaway Primary 36% 50 18
North Ealing Primary 90% 100 90
Castlebar School
Elthorne 74 96 Oaklands Primary 67% 100 67
Page 6 of 15
St John's Primary 64% 100 64
St Joseph's C Primary 96% 52 50
St Mark's Primary 100% 50 50
Greenford Broadway 66 86 Gifford Primary 121% 100 121
Our Lady of the Visitation C Primary
92% 52 48
Ravenor Primary 88% 50 44
Stanhope Primary 100% 50 50
Ealing Broadway 64 83 Christ the Saviour CE Primary 130% 50 65
Greenford Green 62 81 Coston Primary 86% 50 43
The Edward Bentham CE Primary
96% 50 48
Oldfield Primary 98% 50 49
Springhallow School
Ealing Common 59 77 Grange Primary 115% 60 69
Northolt Mandeville 56 73 Petts Hill 100% 50 50
Willow Tree 89% 100 89
South Acton 52 68 Ark Priory Primary Academy 98% 60 59
Berrymede Infant 80% 25 20
Perivale 50 65 Perivale Primary 100% 50 50
Selborne Primary 138% 50 69
St John Fisher C Primary 92% 52 48
Vicar's Green Primary 100% 50 50
Acton Central 47 61 Derwentwater Primary 37% 100 37
St Vincents C Primary 44% 52 23
West Acton Primary 80% 50 40
Page 7 of 15
Northolt West End 22 29 Alec Reed Academy 89% 100 69
Downe Manor Primary 85% 60 51
St Raphael's C Primary 94% 52 49
Viking Primary 102% 50 51
John Chilton School
Lady Margaret 5 6 Durdans Park Primary 90% 100 90
Lady Margaret Primary 110% 50 55
Norwood Green
Dairy Meadow Primary 67% 100 67
Havelock Primary 80% 100 80
Khalsa Primary 100% 50 50
St.Anselm's C Primary 77% 52 40
St Mary's CE Primary
Three Bridges Primary 100% 52 52
Wolf Fields Primary 52% 100 52
Dormers Wells
Allenby Primary 98% 50 49
Dormers Wells Infant 89% 100 89
North Primary
Southall Broadway
Beaconsfield Primary 100% 50 50
Blair Peach Primary 100% 100 100
Hamborough Primary 99% 100 99
Tudor Primary 100% 50 50
Southall Green
Clifton Primary 96% 50 48
Featherstone Primary 87% 100 87
Page 8 of 15
Page 9 of 15
Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme
Distribution of 3& 4 year olds across the Wards
The table and map rank by overall number the distribution of 3& 4 year olds across the
Wards in the borough.
In terms of those Wards with the predicted higher numbers of eligible children, Southfield,
Northfield, Walpole and North Greenford sit below the Ealing Ward average of 441.
Hanger Hill, Hobbayne and East Acton sit above the average
Ward Number
3yrs Number
4rs Total 3&4s
Greenford Broadway 325 327 652
Northolt West End 255 288 543
Northolt Mandeville 279 249 528
East Acton 258 253 511
Southall Green 260 240 500
Hobbayne 242 256 498
Acton Central 231 250 481
Greenford Green 263 214 477
Hanger Hill 255 220 475
Elthorne 244 227 471
Perivale 221 249 470
South Acton 213 201 414
Walpole 221 193 414
Northfield 201 210 411
Cleveland 197 212 409
North Greenford 212 197 409
Southfield 210 195 405
Dormers Wells 205 183 388
Southall Broadway 211 177 388
Norwood Green 203 179 382
Lady Margaret 174 165 339
Ealing Broadway 162 150 312
Ealing Common 141 143 284
5183 4978 10161
Page 10 of 15
Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme
Number of children aged 4 years attending reception class
The table and map rank by overall number the distribution of the number of 4 year olds
attending reception class in schools across the Wards in the borough.
These children will be ineligible for the additional 15 hours childcare scheme
In terms of those Wards with the predicted higher numbers of eligible children, Southfield,
Northfield, Walpole, East Acton, Hanger Hill and North Greenford sit below the Ealing Ward
average of 187. Only Hobbayne Ward sits above the average
Ward Number of pupils aged 4 yrs. attending
reception Summer 2016
Southall Green 289
Greenford Broadway 277
Northolt West End 241
Hobbayne 229
Greenford Green 225
Northolt Mandeville 223
Southall Broadway 220
Elthorne 219
Perivale 214
Acton Central 206
Dormers Wells 196
Ealing Average 187
Lady Margaret 176
Norwood Green 175
Northfield 170
Hanger Hill 162
Cleveland 161
East Acton 154
South Acton 154
North Greenford 153
Walpole 153
Ealing Broadway 118
Ealing Common 103 Southfield 87
Page 11 of 15
Employment Domain Rankings: IMD 2015 Ealing Ward Rank within
Ealing Rank in London
Rank in England
Northolt West End 1 72 1,110
Norwood Green 2 98 1,343
South Acton 3 114 1,472
Dormers Wells 4 131 1,554
Southall Green 5 146 1,664
Greenford Broadway 6 158 1,738
Southall Broadway 7 203 2,061
Northolt Mandeville 8 216 2,155
East Acton 9 223 2,224
Acton Central 9 223 2,224
Hobbayne 11 250 2,413
Cleveland 12 261 2,481
Elthorne 13 283 2,619
Lady Margaret 14 310 2,843
Ealing Common 15 389 3,560
Perivale 16 418 4,022
Greenford Green 17 425 4,142
North Greenford 18 478 4.801
Southfield 19 486 4,858
Walpole 20 496 5,006
Ealing Broadway 21 521 5,385
Hanger Hill 22 562 6,028
Northfield 23 588 6,497
Total Wards 23 654 7,529
*1 = most deprived
Wards amongst the 20% most deprived (Employment)
Wards amongst the 20% least deprived (Employment)
Employment Status: A key criteria for eligibility
The table and map indicate the relative employment deprivation across the Wards in the
borough.
In terms of those Wards with the predicted higher numbers of eligible children, Southfield,
Northfield & Hanger Hill sit within the 20% least deprived (employment) in England. Walpole
within the 20% least deprived (employment) in Ealing. North Greenford just sits outside this
group. Hobbayne is middle ranking, with East Acton ranked 9/23
Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme
Page 12 of 15
Income Domain Rankings: IMD 2015 Ealing Ward Rank within
Ealing Rank in London
Rank in England
Northolt West End 1 73 578
Norwood Green 2 101 705
South Acton 2 101 705
Dormers Wells 4 137 928
Southall Green 5 166 1,051
Greenford Broadway 6 172 1,071
Southall Broadway 7 184 1,129
Northolt Mandeville 8 189 1,162
East Acton 9 201 1,195
Acton Central 9 241 1,453
Hobbayne 11 264 1,593
Cleveland 12 269 1,626
Elthorne 13 280 1,714
Lady Margaret 14 343 2,210
Ealing Common 15 415 2,777
Perivale 16 416 2,806
Greenford Green 17 424 2,939
North Greenford 18 438 3,119
Southfield 19 479 3,841
Walpole 20 481 3,877
Ealing Broadway 21 496 4,064
Hanger Hill 22 508 4,064
Northfield 23 584 4,265
Total Wards 23 654 5,684
*1 = most deprived
Wards amongst the 20% most deprived (Income)
Wards amongst the 20% least deprived (Income)
Income Status: A key criteria for eligibility
The table and map indicate the relative employment deprivation across the Wards in the
borough. The ranking of the Wards is the same as for the Employment Domain.
Southfield, Northfield, Walpole & Hanger Hill sit within the 20% least deprived (income) in
the borough. North Greenford just sits outside this group
Hobbayne is middle ranking, with East Acton ranked 9/23
Norwood Green, Dormers Wells, Southall Green & Southall Broadway sit with 20% most
deprived in England (income)
Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme
Page 13 of 15
Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme
Income Deprivation affecting Children (IDACI 2015)
The table and map indicate the relative income deprivation affecting children across the
Wards in the borough.
Southfield, Northfield, Walpole & Hanger Hill sit within the 20% least deprived (IDACI) in the
borough. North Greenford just sits outside this group
Hobbayne is middle ranking, with East Acton ranked the highest rate of IDACI
Income Domain Rankings: IMD 2015 Ealing Ward Rank within
Ealing Rank in London
Rank in England
East Acton 1 83 417
Northolt West End 2 126 598
South Acton 3 139 682
Norwood Green 4 177 862
Northolt Mandeville 5 191 943
Greenford Broadway 6 221 1,092
Southall Green 7 233 1,168
Acton Central 8 251 1,237
Dormers Wells 9 269 1,360
Cleveland 10 309 1,661
Elthorne 10 309 1,661
Southall Broadway 12 320 1,743
Hobbayne 13 329 1,797
Lady Margaret 14 389 2,312
Ealing Common 15 404 2,437
Perivale 16 416 2,607
Greenford Green 17 431 2,769
North Greenford 18 463 3,170
Southfield 19 472 3,325
Ealing Broadway 20 488 3,569
Hanger Hill 21 491 3,594
Walpole 22 515 4,072
Northfield 23 575 5,196
Total Wards 23 654 7,529
*1 = most deprived
Wards amongst the 20% most deprived (Employment)
Wards amongst the 20% least deprived (Employment)
Page 14 of 15
Area Name % ward £12K-£25K
% ward £25k-£50K
%ward £50k-£75k
%ward £75-100k
Dormers Wells 5.7% 3.8% 2.0% 1.8%
East Acton 5.6% 6.0% 5.9% 5.8%
Lady Margaret 4.9% 4.3% 2.8% 2.4%
North Greenford 4.5% 4.8% 4.1% 3.9%
Northfield 2.5% 3.8% 5.8% 6.2%
Norwood Green 5.2% 3.7% 2.4% 2.2%
Southall Broadway 5.9% 3.8% 1.7% 1.4%
Southall Green 6.4% 4.3% 2.0% 1.8%
Southfield 2.3% 3.8% 6.2% 6.7%
Walpole 2.4% 3.7% 5.9% 6.3%
Household income distribution across 4 income bands
The graph and table below illustrate the distribution of average household income across 4 income bands for the 5 highest average income and 5 lowest average income
Wards in the borough. This is for all households, with 7 without dependent children. The graph shows that at the £12-25K band a higher proportion of the lowest average
income Ward. The greatest convergence of the 10Wards is at the £25k-£50K band and after that a much greater divergence between the highest and lowest income Wards.
To attain the greatest parity across the Wards the 30hr childcare programme should have set the upper household income threshold at £ 50K. The extension beyond has
significantly increased the eligibility to households with higher incomes.
Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme
Page 15 of 15
Appendix: 1 Infographic of DfE calculation process estimating eligibility for 30hr childcare for LAs