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Page 1 of 15 30hr Childcare: Analysis of potential demand and sufficiency in Ealing. Summer 2016 Introduction: Calculating the number of eligible children in each Ward of the borough The methodology utilised by the DfE to predict the number of eligible children in the borough cannot be replicated at Ward level (refer to page 14: Appendix 1 for DfE methodology) Therefore the calculations for the borough have been calculated utilising the most recent data at Ward level concerning the proportions of parents working, the estimates of 3& 4 year population and the number of those 4yr old ineligible as they are attending school. The graph below illustrates the predicted lower and upper estimates for eligible 3&4 year olds for each Ward

Transcript of 30hr Childcare: Analysis of potential demand and …...Page 1 of 15 30hr Childcare: Analysis of...

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30hr Childcare: Analysis of potential demand and sufficiency in Ealing. Summer 2016

Introduction: Calculating the number of eligible children in each Ward of the borough

The methodology utilised by the DfE to predict the number of eligible children in the borough cannot be replicated at Ward level (refer to page 14: Appendix

1 for DfE methodology) Therefore the calculations for the borough have been calculated utilising the most recent data at Ward level concerning the

proportions of parents working, the estimates of 3& 4 year population and the number of those 4yr old ineligible as they are attending school.

The graph below illustrates the predicted lower and upper estimates for eligible 3&4 year olds for each Ward

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Executive Summary

The 30hr eligibility criteria related to employment, income and the number of children aged 4 years

attending reception class (who are ineligible for the funding) makes it much more likely that eligible

children will be located in Wards with higher levels of employment and income (potentially up to a

joint household income of £199,998) and lower numbers of children aged 4years in reception class.

Although the 30hr. childcare programme may become an incentive to work in the future, in terms

of the immediate capital bid, the data points to investment in areas which are quite different than

the original proposal, which targeted the 5 wards within the Southall area. The 5 Southall Wards

are estimated to have the fewest number of eligible children for the 30hr programme.

The top 5 Wards estimated to have the highest number of eligible children are amongst the least

employment and income deprived Wards in Ealing with the lowest numbers of children affected by

income deprivation.

Top 5 Wards estimated to have the highest number of eligible children

Lowest 5 Wards estimated to have the fewest number of eligible children

Southfield Lady Margaret

Northfield Norwood Green

Walpole Dormers Wells

East Acton Southall Broadway

North Greenford Southall Green

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Methodology for estimating eligible children for 30hr places

The methodology utilised by the DfE1 to predict the number of eligible children for 30hr places in the borough (1700) cannot be replicated at Ward level.

Therefore the number of eligible children for 30hr places per Ward has been calculated utilising the following methodology:

1. We utilised Census Data ONS: LC1601EW - Family status by number of parents working by economic activity, to ascertain the % of all families in each Ward which best matched the 30hr.eligibility criteria (Couple families: both parents working; Lone parent family with parent working and couple families where 1 parent working and 1 parent sick or disabled)

2. We calculated the predicted total number of 3& 4 year olds by Ward utilising the ONS Mid-2014 Lower Layer Super Output Area population estimates.

3. We applied the % of eligible families to the 3& 4 population number to estimate the total number of eligible 3& 4 yr. olds per Ward.

4. We identified the current number of 4yr olds in infant class in primary schools by Ward by utilising the School Census data: 4yrolds attending reception (Summer 2016) and deducted this sum from estimated eligible 3& 4 yr. total as they would be ineligible.

5. This gave us the lower estimate of eligibility by Ward

6. We applied the % differential between the lower estimate and the DFE total estimate to attain the upper estimate per Ward

Limitations to the methodology

Eligibility estimates should be treated as indicative, given that the main source of data regarding parents’ status is from the 2011 Census and the

uncertainty regarding changes in population, employment & earnings since that date affecting levels of eligibility.

Ealing also has one of the highest levels of internal and external migration in the country and there are a number of employment/regeneration

programmes within some of the target areas, which may also affect levels of eligibility.

Sources:

Ealing eligible children for 30hour places by Ward Calculation table

Census Data ONS: LC1601EW - Family status by number of parents working by economic activity

ONS Mid-2014 Lower Layer Super Output Area population estimates.

School Census data: 4yrolds attending reception (Summer 2016) DFE 30hr eligible estimate for the borough

1 Refer to Page 15 for DFE methodology

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Calculation table

LC1601EW - Family status by number of parents working by economic activity Census Data ONS Crown Copyright Reserved [from Nomis on 26 July 2016]

Population : All parents aged 16 and over with dependent children Ward All

categories parents

Couple family: Both

parents working

Lone parent family: Parent

working

Number of couple families where 1

parent working and 1 sick or disabled

Total % of all families

Estimated 3& 4

population

% of all families

Number of 4 yr. olds in infant

classes in primary schools

Estimated number

eligible 3 & 4 yr. olds

Plus 30% differential

with DfE estimate of

1700

Acton Central 3043 1238 345 16 1599 52.6 481 253 206 47 61

Cleveland 3286 1582 305 11 1898 57.8 409 236 161 75 97

Dormers Wells 3059 1102 249 36 1387 45.3 388 176 196 -20 -14

Ealing Broadway 2427 1230 171 13 1414 58.3 312 182 118 64 83

Ealing Common 2386 1146 209 7 1362 57.1 284 162 103 59 77

East Acton 3300 1122 429 13 1564 47.4 511 242 154 88 114

Elthorne 3107 1576 350 9 1935 62.3 471 293 219 74 96

Greenford Broadway 4124 1716 440 14 2170 52.6 652 343 277 66 86

Greenford Green 3380 1754 292 15 2061 60.1 477 287 225 62 81

Hanger Hill 3256 1450 201 17 1668 51.2 475 243 162 81 105

Hobbayne 3440 1748 375 18 2141 62.2 498 310 229 81 105

Lady Margaret 3074 1410 197 33 1640 53.4 339 181 176 5 6

Northfield 2964 1952 188 12 2152 72.6 411 298 153 145 188

North Greenford 3192 1664 281 19 1964 61.5 409 252 170 82 107

Northolt Mandeville 3547 1426 419 29 1874 52.8 528 279 223 56 73

Northolt West End 3683 1322 440 24 1786 48.5 543 263 241 22 29

Norwood Green 2867 1016 260 32 1308 45.6 382 174 175 -1 0

Perivale 3377 1572 298 28 1898 56.2 470 264 214 50 65

South Acton 2850 1100 302 15 1417 49.7 414 206 154 52 68

Southall Broadway 2885 898 215 41 1154 40 388 155 220 -65 -46

Southall Green 3228 1086 215 45 1346 41.7 500 209 289 -80 -56

Southfield 2757 1618 169 8 1795 65.1 405 267 87 180 234

Walpole 2762 1746 165 4 1915 69.3 414 287 153 134 174

71994 32474 6515 459 39448

10161 5562 4305 1257 1733

Lower Estimate

Upper Estimate

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Identification of current sufficiency within Primary schools. Ranked by Ward with highest predicted number of eligible 3&4 year olds

Top 14 schools originally identified as at high

capacity

Ward Lower estimate eligible 3&4 yrs.

Upper estimate eligible 3&4 yrs.

Primary School % occupancy Planned places 2015/16

SPRING 2016 CENSUS PTE

Southfield 180 234 Southfield Primary 84% 50 42

Northfield 145 188 Fielding Primary 99% 100 99

Little Ealing Primary 96% 78 75

Mount Carmel C Primary 94% 52 49

Walpole 134 174 No Schools East Acton 88 114 East Acton Primary 84% 50 42

John Perryn Primary 86% 50 43

North Greenford 82 107 Greenwood Primary 96% 50 48

Horsenden Primary 100% 100 100

Wood End Infant 94% 100 94

Mandeville School

Hanger Hill 81 105 Holy Family C Primary 87% 60 52

Montpelier Primary 104% 50 52

St Gregory's C Primary 102% 50 51

West Twyford Primary 100% 50 50

Hobbayne 81 105 Brentside Primary 66% 50 33

Hobbayne Primary 138% 50 69

Mayfield Primary 86% 50 43

Cleveland 75 97 Drayton Green Primary 76% 50 38

Hathaway Primary 36% 50 18

North Ealing Primary 90% 100 90

Castlebar School

Elthorne 74 96 Oaklands Primary 67% 100 67

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St John's Primary 64% 100 64

St Joseph's C Primary 96% 52 50

St Mark's Primary 100% 50 50

Greenford Broadway 66 86 Gifford Primary 121% 100 121

Our Lady of the Visitation C Primary

92% 52 48

Ravenor Primary 88% 50 44

Stanhope Primary 100% 50 50

Ealing Broadway 64 83 Christ the Saviour CE Primary 130% 50 65

Greenford Green 62 81 Coston Primary 86% 50 43

The Edward Bentham CE Primary

96% 50 48

Oldfield Primary 98% 50 49

Springhallow School

Ealing Common 59 77 Grange Primary 115% 60 69

Northolt Mandeville 56 73 Petts Hill 100% 50 50

Willow Tree 89% 100 89

South Acton 52 68 Ark Priory Primary Academy 98% 60 59

Berrymede Infant 80% 25 20

Perivale 50 65 Perivale Primary 100% 50 50

Selborne Primary 138% 50 69

St John Fisher C Primary 92% 52 48

Vicar's Green Primary 100% 50 50

Acton Central 47 61 Derwentwater Primary 37% 100 37

St Vincents C Primary 44% 52 23

West Acton Primary 80% 50 40

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Northolt West End 22 29 Alec Reed Academy 89% 100 69

Downe Manor Primary 85% 60 51

St Raphael's C Primary 94% 52 49

Viking Primary 102% 50 51

John Chilton School

Lady Margaret 5 6 Durdans Park Primary 90% 100 90

Lady Margaret Primary 110% 50 55

Norwood Green

Dairy Meadow Primary 67% 100 67

Havelock Primary 80% 100 80

Khalsa Primary 100% 50 50

St.Anselm's C Primary 77% 52 40

St Mary's CE Primary

Three Bridges Primary 100% 52 52

Wolf Fields Primary 52% 100 52

Dormers Wells

Allenby Primary 98% 50 49

Dormers Wells Infant 89% 100 89

North Primary

Southall Broadway

Beaconsfield Primary 100% 50 50

Blair Peach Primary 100% 100 100

Hamborough Primary 99% 100 99

Tudor Primary 100% 50 50

Southall Green

Clifton Primary 96% 50 48

Featherstone Primary 87% 100 87

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Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme

Distribution of 3& 4 year olds across the Wards

The table and map rank by overall number the distribution of 3& 4 year olds across the

Wards in the borough.

In terms of those Wards with the predicted higher numbers of eligible children, Southfield,

Northfield, Walpole and North Greenford sit below the Ealing Ward average of 441.

Hanger Hill, Hobbayne and East Acton sit above the average

Ward Number

3yrs Number

4rs Total 3&4s

Greenford Broadway 325 327 652

Northolt West End 255 288 543

Northolt Mandeville 279 249 528

East Acton 258 253 511

Southall Green 260 240 500

Hobbayne 242 256 498

Acton Central 231 250 481

Greenford Green 263 214 477

Hanger Hill 255 220 475

Elthorne 244 227 471

Perivale 221 249 470

South Acton 213 201 414

Walpole 221 193 414

Northfield 201 210 411

Cleveland 197 212 409

North Greenford 212 197 409

Southfield 210 195 405

Dormers Wells 205 183 388

Southall Broadway 211 177 388

Norwood Green 203 179 382

Lady Margaret 174 165 339

Ealing Broadway 162 150 312

Ealing Common 141 143 284

5183 4978 10161

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Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme

Number of children aged 4 years attending reception class

The table and map rank by overall number the distribution of the number of 4 year olds

attending reception class in schools across the Wards in the borough.

These children will be ineligible for the additional 15 hours childcare scheme

In terms of those Wards with the predicted higher numbers of eligible children, Southfield,

Northfield, Walpole, East Acton, Hanger Hill and North Greenford sit below the Ealing Ward

average of 187. Only Hobbayne Ward sits above the average

Ward Number of pupils aged 4 yrs. attending

reception Summer 2016

Southall Green 289

Greenford Broadway 277

Northolt West End 241

Hobbayne 229

Greenford Green 225

Northolt Mandeville 223

Southall Broadway 220

Elthorne 219

Perivale 214

Acton Central 206

Dormers Wells 196

Ealing Average 187

Lady Margaret 176

Norwood Green 175

Northfield 170

Hanger Hill 162

Cleveland 161

East Acton 154

South Acton 154

North Greenford 153

Walpole 153

Ealing Broadway 118

Ealing Common 103 Southfield 87

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Employment Domain Rankings: IMD 2015 Ealing Ward Rank within

Ealing Rank in London

Rank in England

Northolt West End 1 72 1,110

Norwood Green 2 98 1,343

South Acton 3 114 1,472

Dormers Wells 4 131 1,554

Southall Green 5 146 1,664

Greenford Broadway 6 158 1,738

Southall Broadway 7 203 2,061

Northolt Mandeville 8 216 2,155

East Acton 9 223 2,224

Acton Central 9 223 2,224

Hobbayne 11 250 2,413

Cleveland 12 261 2,481

Elthorne 13 283 2,619

Lady Margaret 14 310 2,843

Ealing Common 15 389 3,560

Perivale 16 418 4,022

Greenford Green 17 425 4,142

North Greenford 18 478 4.801

Southfield 19 486 4,858

Walpole 20 496 5,006

Ealing Broadway 21 521 5,385

Hanger Hill 22 562 6,028

Northfield 23 588 6,497

Total Wards 23 654 7,529

*1 = most deprived

Wards amongst the 20% most deprived (Employment)

Wards amongst the 20% least deprived (Employment)

Employment Status: A key criteria for eligibility

The table and map indicate the relative employment deprivation across the Wards in the

borough.

In terms of those Wards with the predicted higher numbers of eligible children, Southfield,

Northfield & Hanger Hill sit within the 20% least deprived (employment) in England. Walpole

within the 20% least deprived (employment) in Ealing. North Greenford just sits outside this

group. Hobbayne is middle ranking, with East Acton ranked 9/23

Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme

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Income Domain Rankings: IMD 2015 Ealing Ward Rank within

Ealing Rank in London

Rank in England

Northolt West End 1 73 578

Norwood Green 2 101 705

South Acton 2 101 705

Dormers Wells 4 137 928

Southall Green 5 166 1,051

Greenford Broadway 6 172 1,071

Southall Broadway 7 184 1,129

Northolt Mandeville 8 189 1,162

East Acton 9 201 1,195

Acton Central 9 241 1,453

Hobbayne 11 264 1,593

Cleveland 12 269 1,626

Elthorne 13 280 1,714

Lady Margaret 14 343 2,210

Ealing Common 15 415 2,777

Perivale 16 416 2,806

Greenford Green 17 424 2,939

North Greenford 18 438 3,119

Southfield 19 479 3,841

Walpole 20 481 3,877

Ealing Broadway 21 496 4,064

Hanger Hill 22 508 4,064

Northfield 23 584 4,265

Total Wards 23 654 5,684

*1 = most deprived

Wards amongst the 20% most deprived (Income)

Wards amongst the 20% least deprived (Income)

Income Status: A key criteria for eligibility

The table and map indicate the relative employment deprivation across the Wards in the

borough. The ranking of the Wards is the same as for the Employment Domain.

Southfield, Northfield, Walpole & Hanger Hill sit within the 20% least deprived (income) in

the borough. North Greenford just sits outside this group

Hobbayne is middle ranking, with East Acton ranked 9/23

Norwood Green, Dormers Wells, Southall Green & Southall Broadway sit with 20% most

deprived in England (income)

Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme

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Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme

Income Deprivation affecting Children (IDACI 2015)

The table and map indicate the relative income deprivation affecting children across the

Wards in the borough.

Southfield, Northfield, Walpole & Hanger Hill sit within the 20% least deprived (IDACI) in the

borough. North Greenford just sits outside this group

Hobbayne is middle ranking, with East Acton ranked the highest rate of IDACI

Income Domain Rankings: IMD 2015 Ealing Ward Rank within

Ealing Rank in London

Rank in England

East Acton 1 83 417

Northolt West End 2 126 598

South Acton 3 139 682

Norwood Green 4 177 862

Northolt Mandeville 5 191 943

Greenford Broadway 6 221 1,092

Southall Green 7 233 1,168

Acton Central 8 251 1,237

Dormers Wells 9 269 1,360

Cleveland 10 309 1,661

Elthorne 10 309 1,661

Southall Broadway 12 320 1,743

Hobbayne 13 329 1,797

Lady Margaret 14 389 2,312

Ealing Common 15 404 2,437

Perivale 16 416 2,607

Greenford Green 17 431 2,769

North Greenford 18 463 3,170

Southfield 19 472 3,325

Ealing Broadway 20 488 3,569

Hanger Hill 21 491 3,594

Walpole 22 515 4,072

Northfield 23 575 5,196

Total Wards 23 654 7,529

*1 = most deprived

Wards amongst the 20% most deprived (Employment)

Wards amongst the 20% least deprived (Employment)

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Area Name % ward £12K-£25K

% ward £25k-£50K

%ward £50k-£75k

%ward £75-100k

Dormers Wells 5.7% 3.8% 2.0% 1.8%

East Acton 5.6% 6.0% 5.9% 5.8%

Lady Margaret 4.9% 4.3% 2.8% 2.4%

North Greenford 4.5% 4.8% 4.1% 3.9%

Northfield 2.5% 3.8% 5.8% 6.2%

Norwood Green 5.2% 3.7% 2.4% 2.2%

Southall Broadway 5.9% 3.8% 1.7% 1.4%

Southall Green 6.4% 4.3% 2.0% 1.8%

Southfield 2.3% 3.8% 6.2% 6.7%

Walpole 2.4% 3.7% 5.9% 6.3%

Household income distribution across 4 income bands

The graph and table below illustrate the distribution of average household income across 4 income bands for the 5 highest average income and 5 lowest average income

Wards in the borough. This is for all households, with 7 without dependent children. The graph shows that at the £12-25K band a higher proportion of the lowest average

income Ward. The greatest convergence of the 10Wards is at the £25k-£50K band and after that a much greater divergence between the highest and lowest income Wards.

To attain the greatest parity across the Wards the 30hr childcare programme should have set the upper household income threshold at £ 50K. The extension beyond has

significantly increased the eligibility to households with higher incomes.

Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme

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Appendix: 1 Infographic of DfE calculation process estimating eligibility for 30hr childcare for LAs