30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011 · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew...
Transcript of 30 September 2011 · 9/30/2011 · Corporate overview David Fischel Financial details Matthew...
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30 September 2011
Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders
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Slide 2
Trafford Centre introduction
DVD
Corporate overview
David Fischel
Financial details
Matthew Roberts
Trafford Centre overview
Mike Butterworth
Questions
Appendices
Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC | Presentation to Trafford Centre Noteholders
This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” regarding the belief or current expectations of Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC, its Directors and other members of its
senior management about Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC’s businesses, financial performance and results of operations. These forward-looking statements are not
guarantees of future performance. Rather, they are based on current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which
are outside the control of Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC and are difficult to predict, that may cause actual results, performance or developments to differ materially from any
future results, performance or developments expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this
presentation. Except as required by applicable law, Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC makes no representation or warranty in relation to them and expressly disclaims any
obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC’s expectations with regard thereto or
any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.
Any information contained in this presentation on the price at which shares or other securities in Capital Shopping Centres Group PLC have been bought or sold in the past, or on
the yield on such shares or other securities, should not be relied upon as a guide to future performance.
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Slide 3
Corporate overview | David Fischel
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Slide 4
Leading specialist UK regional shopping centre REIT | 10 of UK’s top 25
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Slide 5
Growth in net rental income (like-for-like) | Recovery continuing
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Slide 6
Yield still above CSC’s long-run average | Spread over gilts at historical high
3
4
5
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7
8
9
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jun-11
30 June 2011
spread 220bp
6.73%
6.20%
3.98%
CSC weighted average nominal equivalent yield 15 years Gilts IPD UK monthly retail index
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Slide 7
Overview of first half results | Sound operating performance
Like-for-like NRI +6.1%
Underlying earnings per share +14%
Occupancy 97%
Footfall +3%
80 long term lettings generating £5m additional rent
Demand for catering units and larger units suitable for flagship stores
Short term leases challenging but only 3% of rent and area
Upside from active management and extensions
Reduced pipeline of new supply of prime retail space
Investor demand for prime product
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Slide 8
Net rental income potential
Potential to grow net rental income through reversion to valuer’s ERV
ERV 19% above committed net rent
scope to capture through rent reviews and lease expiries
includes uplift on expiry of short term concessionary leases
Potential for organic growth through active management projects and extensions
key areas of demand include flagships stores, catering & leisure operators and US and other international brands
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Slide 9
Leading specialist UK regional shopping centre REIT
CSC well placed despite challenging 2011 UK economic outlook
Unrivalled and irreplaceable portfolio
Pipeline of new UK centres curtailed
long lead time
Continuing structural shift in retail towards prime destinations with strong leisure and catering offerings
“2012-2015 will see a chronic shortage of quality retail space, which will further push up rents, particularly in the UK’s major regional shopping malls”The Times – 31 December 2010
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Slide 10
Financial details | Matthew Roberts
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Slide 11
Robust financial position | Net debt to assets 48%
30 June 2011
Total properties £6,815m
Net external debt £(3,286)m
Net debt to assets 48%
Cash £164m
Undrawn committed corporate facilities £248m
Net assets £3,167m
Adjusted net assets per share 391p
Weighted average cost of gross debt 5.6%
Weighted average maturity of gross debt 7.5 years
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Slide 12
CSC Group debt maturity | as at 30 June 2011
Plan to refinance RCF by end of H1 2012
Weighted average debt maturity of 7.5 years
Largely fixed, weighted average cost 5.6%
£248 million undrawn committed corporate facilities
£27 million additional undrawn committed facility for Cardiff
Headroom of £440m
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Slide 13
Underlying earnings
First Half
2011
£m
First Half
2010
£m
Net rental income from continuing operations 177.9 134.5
Administration expenses (11.8) (11.2)
Net finance cost (underlying) (101.5) (85.4)
Underlying earnings of US investment 3.9 4.4
Other(1) (2.2) 1.0
Underlying earnings(2) 66.3 43.3
Interest cover 1.70x 1.52x
Earnings per share (pence) 8.0 7.0
Average shares in issue 828.2 621.7
Dividend per share 5.0 5.0 (1) Includes £2.4 million convertible bond interest charged directly to reserves in financial statements but included in the calculation of EPS
(2) Excludes valuation movements, exceptional items and related tax of £114.6m (first half 2010 £181.0m)
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Slide 14
Trafford Centre | Financial details
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Slide 15
Trafford Centre loan notes analysis
Initial launch February 2000
Second issue July 2005
Issue size (total) £864.5m
Outstanding amount – 31 August 2011 £752.7m(1)
Fixed: Floating(2)
ratio 65% : 35%
Security Trustee Deutsche Bank
Hedge counterparties Deutsche Bank & RBS
Liquidity facility Lloyds Banking Group
Cash Manager Deutsche Bank
(1) For analysis by class see slide 16
(2) Floating rate notes are fully hedged with interest rate swaps and caps
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Slide 16
Analysis by class
Oct 20228.28%BBB50.0D2
April 2035Libor +0.80%BBB29.0D1(N)
July 2038Libor +0.33%AA20.0B2
July 20297.03%AA96.5B
July 2038Libor +0.29%AAA188.5A3
July 20336.50%AAA340.0A2
July 2015Libor +0.20%AAA28.7A1 (N)
MaturityCoupon RatingAmount
£m
Class
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Slide 17
Amortisation profile
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Ja
n-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Jan
-15
Ja
n-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ja
n-1
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Ja
n-1
9
Ja
n-2
0
Ja
n-2
1
Jan
-22
Jan
-23
Ja
n-2
4
Ja
n-2
5
Ja
n-2
6
Ja
n-2
7
Ja
n-2
8
Jan
-29
Jan
-30
Jan
-31
Ja
n-3
2
Ja
n-3
3
Ja
n-3
4
Ja
n-3
5
Ba
lan
ce
of
No
tes
Ou
tsta
nd
ing
(£m
)
B2 A3 D1N A2 B D2 A1N
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Slide 18
Debt Service Cover Ratio (DSCR)
June 2011 Quarterly report 1.2 : 1
Components(1)
:
Rental and other income less costs £76.1 million
Interest payments and note amortisation(2)
£63.2 million
(1) Calculated using twelve month historic cash flows
(2) £48.0m interest, £15.2m amortisation
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Slide 19
DSCR history | Improving due to increasing rental income
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11
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Slide 20
Valuation
Valuation of £1,650m including Barton Square and other land (£85m) as at 30 June 2011
Trafford Centre (excluding Barton Square) net initial yield of 5.09% and nominal equivalent yield of 5.60%
Trafford Centre valuation of £1,565m gives outstanding loan note to value ratio of 48%
Rent
Annual property income of £85m including Barton Square (£3m); ERV of £105m
Headline rent prime ITZA psf £400
Key Trafford Centre metrics
Site location
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Slide 21
Trafford Centre financial results
(34.8)(25.1)Net interest payable
0.4-Profit on disposal of fixed assets
76.857.3Net rental income
42.432.2Profit before taxation
(6.1)(4.8)Property and other costs
1.22.5Other income
81.759.6Gross rental income
12 months ended
31 Mar 2010
£m
9 months ended
31 Dec 2010
£m
Source: Audited financial statements of The Trafford Centre Limited, UK GAAP
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Slide 22
Trafford Centre overview | Mike Butterworth
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Slide 23
200 units (including over 65 catering and leisure units); approximately 1.4m sq. ft. retail and 0.3m sq. ft. catering and leisure space over 2 levels
Anchor tenants: Selfridges, Debenhams, John Lewis and Marks & Spencer
Current occupancy rate of 97%* by rent as at 30 June 2011
Opened to public in September 1998
In addition, major 240,000 sq. ft. homeware and leisure extension (Barton Square) opened in 2008
Significant redevelopment of main entrance for additional catering in 2007 (The Great Hall)
Trafford Centre | overview
Site location* Occupancy defined as passing rent of let and under offer units expressed as a percentage of the passing rent of let and under offer units plus ERV of unlet units, excluding
development and recently completed properties. Units let to tenants currently in administration assumed unlet
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Slide 24
UK’s top ranked shopping centres
BasingstokeFestival Place18
PeterboroughQueensgate Centre35LeicesterHighcross17
TelfordThe Round (Telford Shopping Centre)34Milton KeynesThe centre: mk16
DoncasterFrenchgate Centre33CardiffSt David's15
NottinghamVictoria Centre32ManchesterThe Arndale14
BrightonChurchill Square31Brierley Hill Merry Hill Shopping Centre13
NorwichChapelfield30DerbyWestfield Derby12
GlasgowBuchanan Galleries29BirminghamBull Ring11
WarringtonGolden Square28LiverpoolLiverpool One10
GlasgowSilverburn27LondonBrent Cross9
ReadingThe Oracle26BristolCabot Circus8
GlasgowBraehead25GatesheadMetrocentre7
GlasgowEast Kilbride Shopping Centre24BristolThe Mall at Cribbs Causeway6
LeedsWhite Rose Shopping Centre23ThurrockLakeside5
NewcastleEldon Square22ManchesterThe Trafford Centre4
SouthamptonWest Quay21SheffieldMeadowhall3
BromleyThe Glades20GreenhitheBluewater2
WatfordThe Harlequin19LondonWestfield 1
LocationCentreLocationCentre
Source: PMA
* Top shopping centres on basis of PMA Retail Score (2010). CSC shopping centres highlighted
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Slide 25
Large catchment area – 8.9 million people live within a 70-minute drive, 4.8 million within 45 minutes
Wealthy demographic - over 69% ABC1*, well above national average
Consistent footfall growth since opening to over 30 million per annum
Estimated 8% year-on-year increase first half 2011
25% footfall growth 2007-2010
Loyal customer base: 21% of visitors visit at least once per week and 56% visit at least monthly
The Trafford Centre is complementary to Manchester Arndale in the city centre
Located c. 6 miles west of Manchester city centre immediately adjoining M60 motorway near its junction with the M6. 11,500 car and 350 coach parking spaces. 85% arrive by car and 15% by public transport.
Catchment | North West is UK’s largest regional retail market outside London & the S.E.
Source: Experian
* UK social groups A, B and C1, defined as members of households whose chief earner’s occupation is professional, higher or intermediate management or supervisory
70 minute drivetime around Trafford Centre
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Slide 26
Retail mix
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Slide 27
Department stores: Selfridges, Debenhams and John Lewis
Other major tenants: Marks & Spencer, Boots, Bhs
Retailers significantly expanding in 2011 include:
Marks & Spencer, Debenhams (expansion into adjacent units)
Dune (new flagship store)
Thomas Sabo
New retailers in 2011 include:
Banana Republic (first in the North)
VANS
Boux Avenue
Ted Baker
Circle 360 champagne bar
Retail mix
Site location
Books/Cards
4%
Ladieswear
12%
Menswear
5%Mixed: Ladies
& Menswear
22%
Other
26%
Jewellers
Anchor
Tenants
15%
Footwear
8%
Phone
Retailers inc.
Mobiles
4%
Analysis of rental income by Sales Category (shops only)
* Other includes banks, childrenswear, confectionery, electrical computer retailers, gifts / soft furnishings / furniture, health and beauty, opticians, outdoor clothing / equipment, music
retailers, sportswear, toys and travel agents
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Slide 28
Top 20 tenants
Rank Tenant Group % Rent
1 Arcadia (1) 4%
2 Selfridges 3%
3 Debenhams 3%
4 Next 2%
5 Marks & Spencer 2%
6 H & M 2%
7 J D Sports (2)
2%
8 Odeon 2%
9 Boots 2%
10 W H Smith 2%
11 Aurora Group (3)
2%
12 John Lewis 1%
13 River Island 1%
14 HMV 1%
15 Zara 1%
16 Waterstones 1%
17 Hollister 1%
18 Monsoon 1%
19 Superdry 1%
20 JJB Sports 1%
Top 20 Tenants total 36%
(1) Includes BHS
(2) Includes Bank and Cecil Gee
(3) Includes Oasis, Karen Millen, Warehouse and Coast
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Slide 29
Catering and leisure
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Slide 30
c. 310,000 sq. ft. devoted to catering & leisure
Over 65 catering units generating an estimated £80m annual turnover
Themed areas - The Orient, The Great Hall –adding a sense of theatre
An unrivalled leisure offer including:
Odeon Multiplex cinema
LEGOLAND Discovery Centre
Paradise Island Adventure Golf
Aerial Extreme (high ropes adventure course)
Events include:
Celebrity Christmas lights switch on
high profile fashion shows
firework displays
Santa’s arrival parade
Catering and leisure
Site location
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Slide 31
Leisure
Site location
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Slide 32
Opportunities
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Slide 33
Overview of rent review cycle and lease maturities | Significant opportunity in 2013
Lease maturities*Rent reviews*
6%5%
8%
36%
3%
7%
3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2010 and earlier 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1% 1%
21%
2%4%
3%4%
8%
2%
10%
44%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021+
* As % of 30 June 2011 passing rent
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Slide 34
Scope for asset management initiatives at The Trafford Centre including:
Original structure built to accommodate additional floors enabling cost effective expansion, e.g.
above Debenhams
along link bridge to Barton Square
Opportunities to introduce MSU flagship stores (only 8 MSUs compared to 14 at Lakeside)
Conversion of dormant space to additional retail, subject to planning permission
Creation of space to enable unit re-configurations
Estimated capex £17 million
Significant asset management opportunities to grow ERV | The Trafford Centre
Site location Identified Opportunities
Barton Square
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Slide 35
Homeware & leisure extension opened in 2008, including Next, Dwell, British HOME Stores, Laura Ashley Home, Natuzzi
Being established as a major homewares destination
Scope for continued strengthening, including of tourist destination and retail mix
Structure can accommodate additional floor enabling cost effective expansion subject to planning permission
Central courtyard enclosure plans -planning consent granted
Estimated capex £33 million
Significant asset management opportunities to grow ERV| Barton Square
Site locationIdentified Opportunities
Barton Square
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Slide 36
Questions