3 rd International Conference on Population Geographies Liverpool, 19-21 June 2006 The salient...
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3 rd International Conference on Population Geographies Liverpool, 19-21 June 2006 The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 Frank Heins, Irpps-Cnr, Rome, Italy
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Transcript of 3 rd International Conference on Population Geographies Liverpool, 19-21 June 2006 The salient...
3rd International Conference on Population GeographiesLiverpool, 19-21 June 2006
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955
Frank Heins, Irpps-Cnr, Rome, Italy
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 2
Structure of the presentation
• The data, source and adjustments made
• The focus on demographic efficiency
• The national level
• The provincial level
• The flow level
• Conclusions
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 3
The data, source and adjustments made
• Source of information: Istat
• The reliability of the data
• About unregistered and fictitious migrations
• Constant territory: 95 provinces
• Weighted analysis
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 4
The focus on demographic deficiency
• Net migration / volume of migration
• Only migration data are necessary
• What it does not measure: efficiency
• A note on absolute numbers
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 5
The national level
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Dem
og
rap
hic
Eff
icie
ncy
Demographic efficiency, Italy 1955-2002
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 6
The provincial level
D.e., Italian metro provinces 1955-2002
-60,0
-40,0
-20,0
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
De
mo
gra
ph
ic E
ffic
ien
cy
Milano Roma Torino Napoli
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 7
The provincial level
D.e., Italian ‘extreme’ provinces 1955-2002
-80,0
-60,0
-40,0
-20,0
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
De
mo
gra
ph
ic E
ffic
ien
cy
Varese Bologna Como
Foggia Reggio di Calabria Catanzaro
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 8
The provincial level
D.e., Italian ‘extreme’ provinces 1955-2002
-80,0
-60,0
-40,0
-20,0
0,0
20,0
40,0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
De
mo
gra
ph
ic E
ffic
ien
cy
Rovigo Pesaro e Urbino Perugia
Rieti Arezzo
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 9
The provincial level
-3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0,000 1,000 2,000 3,000
Factor - Efficiency 1974-2002
-2,000
-1,000
0,000
1,000
2,000F
ac
tor
- E
ffic
ien
cy
19
55
-19
74
Torino
Vercelli
Novara
Cuneo
Asti
Alessandria
Aosta
Imperia
Savona
Genova
La Spezia
Varese
Como
Sondrio
Milano
BergamoBrescia
Pavia
Cremona
Mantova
Bolzano
Trento
Verona Vicenza
Belluno
Treviso
Venezia Padova
Rovigo
Udine
Gorizia
Trieste
Piacenza
Parma
Reggio nell'Emilia
Modena
Bologna
Ferrara
Ravenna
Forlì
Pesaro e Urbino
Ancona
Macerata
Ascoli Piceno
Massa - Carrara
Lucca
Pistoia
Firenze
Livorno
Pisa
Arezzo
Siena
Grosseto
Perugia
Terni
Viterbo
Rieti
Roma
Latina
Frosinone
Caserta
Benevento
Napoli
Avellino
Salerno
L'Aquila
Teramo
Pescara
ChietiCampobasso
Foggia
Bari
Taranto
Brindisi
Lecce
Potenza
Matera
CosenzaCatanzaro
Reggio di Calabria
Trapani
Palermo
Messina
Agrigento
Caltanissetta
Enna
Catania
Ragusa
Siracusa
Sassari
Nuoro
Cagliari
Pordenone
Isernia
Oristano
D.e., the patterns 1955-2002
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 10
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 11
The provincial level
-3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0,000 1,000 2,000 3,000
Factor - Efficiency 1974-2002
-2,000
-1,000
0,000
1,000
2,000F
ac
tor
- E
ffic
ien
cy
19
55
-19
74
Torino
Vercelli
Novara
Cuneo
Asti
Alessandria
Aosta
Imperia
Savona
Genova
La Spezia
Varese
Como
Sondrio
Milano
BergamoBrescia
Pavia
Cremona
Mantova
Bolzano
Trento
Verona Vicenza
Belluno
Treviso
Venezia Padova
Rovigo
Udine
Gorizia
Trieste
Piacenza
Parma
Reggio nell'Emilia
Modena
Bologna
Ferrara
Ravenna
Forlì
Pesaro e Urbino
Ancona
Macerata
Ascoli Piceno
Massa - Carrara
Lucca
Pistoia
Firenze
Livorno
Pisa
Arezzo
Siena
Grosseto
Perugia
Terni
Viterbo
Rieti
Roma
Latina
Frosinone
Caserta
Benevento
Napoli
Avellino
Salerno
L'Aquila
Teramo
Pescara
ChietiCampobasso
Foggia
Bari
Taranto
Brindisi
Lecce
Potenza
Matera
CosenzaCatanzaro
Reggio di Calabria
Trapani
Palermo
Messina
Agrigento
Caltanissetta
Enna
Catania
Ragusa
Siracusa
Sassari
Nuoro
Cagliari
Pordenone
Isernia
Oristano
D.e., the patterns 1955-2002
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 12
The provincial level
Correlation coefficients with factor values
(95 provinces - weighted)
Year Demographic efficiency
1955-1974 Demographic efficiency
1974-2002 Population density average
0,428 -0,487 GDP
1951 0,904 -0,144 1961 0,913 0,126 1971 0,866 0,213 1981 0,670 0,553 1991 0,696 0,543 2002 0,771 0,377
Unemployment 1981 -0,472 -0,699 1991 -0,469 -0,709 2001 -0,453 -0,688
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 13
The flow level
D.e., the patterns 1955-2002
-3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0,000 1,000 2,000 3,000
Factor - Efficiency 1955-1973
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000F
ac
tor
- E
ffic
ien
cy
19
73
-20
02
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 14
The flow levelMean values of variables
Clusters
Total Short distance-
1
Short distance-
2
Medium distance
Long distance
Very long
distance Number of flows included in the analysis of a total of 4465 (average sum at least 50 migrants)
In absolute terms 1770 186 702 179 272 431 Weighted 4032 659 1464 562 313 1034
Neighbours 0,371 0,659 0,542 0,320 0,088 0,061 Average distance between provinces
in km 320,5 125,7 158,9 202,6 473,8 690,9 Province of ‘origin’
Population density 447 1077 240 161 1060 310 GDP 1951 91,8 158,6 86,4 80,1 88,7 64,2 GDP 1961 89,9 129,2 89,8 93,9 80,6 65,6 GDP 1971 90,6 118,7 92,3 97,3 79,9 70,0 GDP 1981 91,4 107,9 95,6 108,6 74,2 70,7 GDP 1991 91,9 108,6 96,0 107,6 75,7 71,7 GDP 2002 90,1 114,8 93,3 102,2 73,3 68,6 Unemployment 1981 18,1 15,8 15,5 10,3 26,5 24,8 Unemployment 2001 8,5 7,1 7,2 4,4 12,9 12,1
Province of ‘destination’ Population density 484 288 356 829 299 660 GDP 1951 136,1 99,7 107,0 194,4 113,0 175,6 GDP 1961 121,4 104,2 104,1 150,0 111,9 144,3 GDP 1971 113,8 101,5 101,7 132,8 109,1 129,8 GDP 1981 111,1 108,0 101,7 119,5 110,4 122,3 GDP 1991 110,9 106,6 103,2 118,1 112,6 120,2 GDP 2002 111,4 100,0 100,8 125,6 110,6 126,4 Unemployment 1981 12,4 12,9 14,5 11,6 11,4 9,8 Unemployment 2001 5,7 5,7 6,8 5,2 5,1 4,4
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 15
The flow level
Mean values of variables Clusters
Total Short
distance-1
Short distance-
2
Medium distance
Long distance
Very long
distance ‘Destination compared to ‘origin’
Population density 3,086 0,607 2,379 6,136 1,003 4,641 GDP 1951 1,780 0,677 1,322 2,518 1,366 2,854 GDP 1961 1,497 0,831 1,204 1,642 1,461 2,268 GDP 1971 1,345 0,871 1,135 1,388 1,418 1,900 GDP 1981 1,291 1,018 1,088 1,121 1,539 1,770 GDP 1991 1,275 0,995 1,100 1,112 1,527 1,714 GDP 2002 1,326 0,912 1,103 1,244 1,583 1,871 Unemployment 1981 0,819 0,856 0,999 1,205 0,493 0,427 Unemployment 2001 0,841 0,856 1,032 1,328 0,480 0,406
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 16
The flow levelMean values of variables
Clusters
Total Short distance-
1
Short distance-
2
Medium distance
Long distance
Very long
distance Number of flows included in the analysis of a total of 4465 (average sum at least 50 migrants)
In absolute terms 1770 186 702 179 272 431 Weighted 4032 659 1464 562 313 1034
Neighbours 0,371 0,659 0,542 0,320 0,088 0,061 Average distance between provinces
in km 320,5 125,7 158,9 202,6 473,8 690,9 Province of ‘origin’
Population density 447 1077 240 161 1060 310 GDP 1951 91,8 158,6 86,4 80,1 88,7 64,2 GDP 2002 90,1 114,8 93,3 102,2 73,3 68,6 Unemployment 1981 18,1 15,8 15,5 10,3 26,5 24,8 Unemployment 2001 8,5 7,1 7,2 4,4 12,9 12,1
Province of ‘destination’ Population density 484 288 356 829 299 660 GDP 1951 136,1 99,7 107,0 194,4 113,0 175,6 GDP 2002 111,4 100,0 100,8 125,6 110,6 126,4 Unemployment 1981 12,4 12,9 14,5 11,6 11,4 9,8 Unemployment 2001 5,7 5,7 6,8 5,2 5,1 4,4
‘Destination compared to ‘origin’ Population density 3,086 0,607 2,379 6,136 1,003 4,641 GDP 1951 1,780 0,677 1,322 2,518 1,366 2,854 GDP 2002 1,326 0,912 1,103 1,244 1,583 1,871 Unemployment 1981 0,819 0,856 0,999 1,205 0,493 0,427 Unemployment 2001 0,841 0,856 1,032 1,328 0,480 0,406
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 17
The flow level
D.e., 5 clusters 1955-2002
-80,0
-60,0
-40,0
-20,0
0,0
20,0
40,0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
De
mo
gra
ph
ic E
ffic
ien
cy
sd-1 sd-2 md ld vld
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 18
The flow level
-3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0,000 1,000 2,000 3,000
Factor - Efficiency 1955-1973
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Fa
cto
r -
Eff
icie
nc
y 1
97
3-2
00
2
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 19
The flow level: cluster short distance - 1
Flow Weight Sum of
migrants Net
migrants
Demographic efficiency 2000-02
Napoli - Caserta 46,5 309.452 56.660 -23,1 Milano - Como 41,9 278.941 43.911 -25,2 Milano - Varese 39,1 260.237 34.611 -15,8 Napoli - Salerno 31,7 210.878 18.006 -22,1 Milano - Pavia 31,6 210.139 17.497 -38,2 Milano - Bergamo 30,7 204.219 11.625 -29,2 Roma - Latina 30,5 202.609 10.697 -7,6 Roma - Viterbo 25,9 172.092 1.804 -27,9
Venezia - Treviso 22,0 146.338 23.320 -20,5 Torino - Asti 21,8 145.231 897 -22,8 Torino - Milano 15,2 101.165 10.797 -14,1
Genova - Alessandria 14,6 97.235 11.575 -28,3 Modena - Regio Emilia 14,4 95.777 2.711 -37,6
Milano - Novara 14,4 95.687 8.183 -23,0 Firenze - Pistoia 13,4 89.391 4.675 -25,1
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 20
The flow level: cluster short distance - 2
Flow Weight Sum of
migrants Net
migrants
Demographic efficiency 2000-02
Frosinone - Roma 30,2 201.040 42.142 -7,3 Milano - Roma 23,6 156.763 3.499 -0,7
Venezia - Padova 19,4 128.735 7.069 -10,1 Messina - Catania 14,9 99.022 12.804 -3,4
Chieti - Pescara 13,9 92.434 4.022 -8,0 Milano - Genova 13,8 92.068 1.194 -8,0
Padova - Vicenza 13,8 91.794 5.100 1,2 Catania - Siracusa 13,6 90.118 1.462 6,3
Enna - Catania 13,4 89.164 28.696 -11,2 Trapani - Palermo 13,1 86.976 1.088 10,7
Agrigento - Palermo 13,0 86.216 8.634 -10,7 Pisa - Livorno 12,8 84.917 8.519 12,8
Taranto - Bari 12,6 83.688 1.174 -9,2 Bari - Roma 12,3 81.503 25.361 -35,2 Forli - Ravenna 12,2 81.155 19.741 -4,8
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 21
The flow level: cluster medium distance
Flow Weight Sum of
migrants Net
migrants
Demographic efficiency 2000-02
Cuneo - Torino 38,4 255.270 3.864 17,5 Rieti - Roma 22,6 150.531 30.335 18,0
Cremona - Milano 22,5 149.443 20.221 31,8 Brescia - Milano 18,2 121.316 14.718 19,5 Perugia - Roma 17,7 117.868 22.296 22,2 Avellino - Napoli 17,5 116.415 3.859 39,1 Vercelli - Torino 16,3 108.216 818 10,6 Modena - Bologna 15,2 101.264 3.528 6,0 Arezzo - Firenze 15,2 100.814 26.562 21,9
Alessandria - Torino 11,9 79.037 10.547 14,2 Mantova - Milano 10,2 67.851 27.351 12,6 Cagliari - Torino 10,1 67.234 14.824 -4,3 Padova - Milano 9,5 63.327 18.853 0,5
Piacenza - Milano 9,2 60.888 4.852 16,9 Benevento - Napoli 9,0 60.141 4.149 42,9
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 22
The flow level: cluster long distance
Flow Weight Sum of
migrants Net
migrants
Demographic efficiency 2000-02
Napoli - Roma 29,8 197.884 71.964 -49,6 Nuoro - Cagliari 12,3 82.084 20.524 -33,5 Nuoro - Sassari 9,4 62.344 11.648 -25,0 Napoli - Latina 7,8 51.988 19.806 -44,9
Catania - Roma 7,7 50.974 15.370 -33,9 Torino - Savona 7,6 50.282 13.654 -31,3
Taranto - Roma 6,3 42.090 12.504 -39,1 Torino - Imperia 6,0 40.065 9.801 -26,7 Milano - Savona 5,7 38.132 9.320 -26,1 Napoli - Genova 4,8 31.891 8.829 -45,1 Milano - Imperia 4,5 30.089 6.341 -22,3 Napoli - Varese 4,1 27.091 10.057 -46,1 Napoli - Bologna 3,5 23.250 10.280 -61,9
Brindisi - Roma 3,3 22.120 6.630 -28,9 Campobasso - Chieti 3,0 19.786 4.030 -27,0
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 23
The flow level: cluster very long distance
Flow Weight Sum of
migrants Net
migrants
Demographic efficiency 2000-02
Bari - Milano 28,2 187.753 77.067 -31,2 Napoli - Milano 26,1 173.578 72.448 -47,3 Foggia - Milano 24,3 161.328 81.270 -24,6
L'Aquila - Roma 21,3 141.772 40.934 -0,9 Foggia - Torino 21,1 140.306 62.046 -10,5
Catanzaro - Milano 20,5 136.497 64.559 -23,9 Palermo - Torino 17,1 113.883 36.359 -20,2
Bari - Torino 16,6 110.487 35.519 -12,8 Reggio
Calabria - Torino 16,4 108.892 42.154 -24,5
Palermo - Milano 16,2 107.868 40.604 -38,7 Catanzaro - Torino 15,7 104.418 40.594 -20,5
Ferrara - Bologna 15,1 100.311 28.525 21,5 Napoli - Torino 14,1 93.986 27.144 -37,8
Catania - Milano 14,0 93.419 33.937 -24,7 Caserta - Roma 12,1 80.369 23.921 -27,0
The salient patterns of Italy’s internal migration flows since 1955 - 19-21 June 2006 24
Conclusions
• From rural areas to the cities
• The industrialisation and its crisis
• The expansion of the metropolitan areas
• The role of the major metropolitan areas
• From the disappearance of differences to
their re-emergence
• The end of the story?
The inter-provincial migrations reflect/are part of the history of Italy
