3 Main Aricles on Dubai Crisis

7/28/2019 3 Main Aricles on Dubai Crisis

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DUABI CRISIS

ARTICLES:

FINANCIAL CRISES: DUBAI BUBBLE BURST

You know about Dubai'seconomic crisis. But do you know the background to -and fallout from - the crisis?

A Brief History

Historically, Dubai had an oil-based economy.

But because Dubai's oil reserves were declining, the government - led by Sheikh

Muhammed Al Maktoum - decided to diversify into other areas, especiallytourism and commerce. Seethisandthis.

That's why Dubai built theworld's only 7 star hotel, a series ofluxury islands,and theworld's largest tower.

But the global property bubble is bursting.

As Iwrotelast December:

Housing bubbles are now bursting inChina,France,Spain,Ireland, theUnited

Kingdom,Eastern Europe, andmany other regions.

And the bubble in commercialreal estate is also bursting world-wide. Seethis.

But Dubai got hit the hardest.

As Bloombergnotes:

Dubai suffered the worlds steepest property slump in the global recession, withhome prices dropping 50 percent from their 2008 peak, according to DeutscheBank AG.

As the CBCnotes, things went South quickly in Dubai:

Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of building projects were delayed orcancelled. Thousands of jobs disappeared.

Dubai, playground of the ber-extravagant, suddenly found itself facing the
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property/2787692/UK-housing-bubble-is-bursting-and-it%27s-serious.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/2787692/UK-housing-bubble-is-bursting-and-it%27s-serious.htmlhttp://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2008/1001/1222724598109.htmlhttp://www.nysun.com/opinion/housing-pain-in-spain/72501/http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/blog/europeinsight/archives/2008/10/pop_goes_the_fr.htmlhttp://www.newsweek.com/id/164626http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2008/12/how-bad-can-it-get.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burj_Dubaihttp://images.google.com/images?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=Suc&um=1&sa=1&q=dubai+islands+of+the+world&aq=0&oq=dubai+islands+&aqi=g2&start=0http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&hs=gsc&resnum=0&q=dubai+7+star+hotel&um=1&ie=UTF-8&ei=-dAQS6rSCoaGMeG-1TM&sa=X&oi=image_result_group&ct=title&resnum=1&ved=0CBQQsAQwAAhttp://www.ecoglobe.ch/traffic/e/duba8721.htmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/493915.stmhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aoFe12bwzZ2M


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very real possibility that its biggest state-owned company, Dubai World, couldgo into bankruptcy. It warned it was having trouble making debt payments on

$59 billion US money borrowed to pay for all the excess.

Global Impact

The CBC also notes that Dubai World has holdings worldwide:

Dubai World is Dubai's main holding and investment enterprise, but its holdings

range far beyond the Persian Gulf area ...

Another Dubai World holding DP World operates Centerm, a containerterminal in Vancouver's inner harbour. DP World acquired the terminal when it

bought the marine terminal assets of P&O Ports in 2006, and plans to spend$140 million to expand it.

That purchase also gave it ownership of many key U.S. ports something thatraised national security concerns in the U.S. Some American legislators didn'tlike the idea that U.S. ports would be controlled by Middle Eastern state-ownedenterprises. DP World subsequently sold its U.S. port assets.

In Britain, another Dubai World subsidiary, Leisurecorp, bought the Turnberry

Resort in Scotland in 2008 home to the 2009 British Open for more than50 million pounds.

In the U.S., Dubai World's investment arm, Istithmar World, bought the luxury

retailer Barneys New York in 2007 for almost $1 billion US. There were reports

earlier this year it was trying to unload the retailer as the luxury marketunwound and Istithmar racked up big losses from the global financial meltdown,but Dubai World's chair denied it.

In addition, Bloombergnotesthat India might be effected by Dubai's economic

problems:

About 4.5 million Indians live and work in the Gulf region and remit more than$10 billion annually, according to government data. The turmoil may affectremittances, said Thomas Issac, finance minister of the southern state ofKerala, which accounted for about a quarter Indias migrant labor in 2005...

Remittances from the Middle East account for about 25 percent of Keralaseconomy, Issac said

The Royal Bank of Scotlandis Dubai's biggest creditor, with $2.3 billion, or 17percent, of Dubai World loans since January 2007. HSBC, Europes biggestbank, has the largest absolute exposure in the U.A.E. with $17 billion of loans
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in 2008

Yves Smithnotesthat Dubai's default caught creditors by surprise:

I got a message from someone who was on the conference call [with Dubai

government officials]... Some European banks may be on the wrong side of thistrade. As readers may know, EuroBanks went into the crisis with even lower

capital levels than their US counterparts, and have taken fewer writedowns oftheir dodgy exposures:

The standstill announcementwas a massive surprise. One could sense the

panic in those asking questions.this could be the turning point in spreads andcould be viewed similar to the Russian debt crisis in 1998 or the Bear situation

in 2007based on companies and the accents of the people asking questions, itis obvious European institutions will be hit hardDubai made this

announcement at the beginning of a four day holiday, so there will be little news

until next weekThere is another wave of pain out there. This information doesnot seem to be making its way to other markets. It will.

Zero Hedge has a goodroundupof statistics regarding the biggest creditors ofthe United Arab Emirates, of which Dubai is a part:

Creditors:

Of United Arab Emirates (By Origin via Credit Suisse citing Bank forInternational Settlements):

United Kingdom: $50.2 billionFrance: $11.3 billionGermany: $10.6 billionUnited States: $10.6 billionJapan: $ 9.0 billionSwitzerland: $ 4.6 billionNetherlands: $ 4.5 billion

Of United Arab Emirates (By Entity via Credit Suisse, citing Emirates BankAssociation):

HSBC Bank Middle East Limited: $17.0 billionStandard Chartered Bank: $ 7.8 billionBarlays Bank Plc: $ 3.6 billionABN-Amro (RBS): $ 2.1 billionArab Bank Plc: $ 2.1 billion

Citibank: $ 1.9 billionBank of Baroda: $ 1.8 billion
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Bank Saderat Iran: $ 1.7 billionBNP Parabas: $ 1.7 billion

Lloyds: $ 1.6 billion

The Associated Press hasadditional details.

Bloombergnotesthat Dubai's default might increase risk aversion of investors

to emerging markets:

Were bound to see a rise in risk aversion, Arnab Das, the London-based headof market research and strategy at Roubini Global Economics said in an

interview. The Dubai situation signifies that although the major central banksaround the world have stabilized the financial system, they cant make all the

excesses simply disappear.

Indias stocks, currency and bonds fell on concern investors may shy away from

riskier emerging market assets over losses stemming from the turmoil in Dubai.Indias benchmark stock index dropped 1.3 percent yesterday, while the rupeelost 0.5 percent.

Zero hedge also notes:

UBS speculates that (among other possibilities) $80-90 billion (which isalready over 100% of GDP) may be a low figure for Dubai's debt and thatsignificant "off-balance sheet" amounts might explain the restructuringattempt

The Dubai government is on holiday (Eid Al-Adha) until December 6th Abu Dhabi's Sovereign Wealth Fund (generally thought to command

upwards of $500 billion) may have significantly less available. (Rumors of$125 billion in 2008 lossesabounded last year). Bloomberg quotessources to the effect that Abu Dhabi SWF's AUM has been "overstated,sometimes by as much as 100 percent."

British prime minister Gordon Brown hasindicatedhow serious the situation is:

"Clearly the restructuring announcement has caused disruption and uncertaintyin world markets, Browns spokeswoman Vickie Sheriff told reporters in

London. Browns view is that U.K. banks are well capitalized having undergone

rigorous stress testing, she said.

And the Associated Press isaskingwhether Dubai's default will cause anotherfinancial panic.

The numbers involved are not that great for most creditors - on the order of
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hundreds of millions of dollars.

But the sense of shock and loss of confidence - when many had optimisticallybelieved that the world economy was out of the woods - could indeed beprofound.

Global Research Articles by Washington's Blog

ARTICLE 2:

The Dubai Crisis - An explanation

The saying some years ago was, "If the US sneezed, the world caught cold". Looking at the

developments filtering out of the Middle East in the past few days, it is fair in saying, "If Dubai

sneezes, the world catches cold." But the dominoes effect of Dubai on other economies has

forced me to say that it is a bit of a VIRAL!

First, for all of you who have been wondering what the fuss is all about, let me put things in

right perspective Dubai World, an enterprise associated with the Government of Dubai, has

asked its creditors to hold off on their repayment schedules. The finance on stake A whopping

$80 Billion Dollars!

Why did the Dubai economic crisis ever happen?

Dubai has been perennially known to be the most Un-Gulf state. It doesn't rely on oil as a key

driver for its economy. Instead, during its heydays between the late 1980s right until 2005,

Dubai relied on tourism, real estate and commerce for driving its economy. People who lived inDubai during these times, witnessed the transformation of what was an absolute Sand dune to

a city where everyone wished to live in!

All of this had to come with its own set of pitfalls. The ambitious plans of the Dubai

Government, spearheaded by Shaikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Makhtoum to set up dream

ventures at exorbitant prices had to meet with an anti-climatic end. And it did meet one, in the

form of the global recession!

The global recession meant one thing Dream initiatives like the Palm Islands and the Seven

Oceans had very few takers, by the time they went live. These projects also had the backing of

the Government of Dubai. Now, with not many people willing to spend their monies (Actually,they didn't have a lot on their hands), these properties stood half-empty.

With not many units of these ventures finding customers, developers started to default on their

payments back to their creditors. And this is where, Dubai World finds itself in a mess! It was

just unable to find people to buy their ventures, or units in their ventures.
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Global recession bought with it, a downward spiral in the prices of real estate in Dubai, but only

to the tune of about 15-20%. Some of these ventures were so exotic that they had to be priced

relatively high, and obviously then, they had to go empty.

The impact on Dubai itself

Layoffs The already reeling construction industry could see a major freefall from here.Laborers could be asked to go home and whatever little construction projects would be on theanvil, will surely be shelved.

Banking Local banks would surely feel the pinch of this crisis. Though, they have pledgedtheir support to Dubai World, there could be a time not too far off from here, when they

might be in the red.

Bullion prices Gold may see a big drop in demand. Dubai has been known to be a Gold Hub,and though it doesn't produce Gold on its own, it seeks exports from countries like India and

re-exports them to other countries, prices can be expected to go down surely.

Crude Oil The crude oil prices could go down too. Foreign Exchange The valuation of AED (The local currency of Dubai) could see a drop. This

could probably mean the strengthening of the Dollar, by a bit.

Summary

All in all This is nowhere as catastrophic a disaster as the Sub-Prime Crisis or even the

Lehmann bust. The Lehmann bust was surely a systemic malady, while Dubai World is probably

in a mess due to cash-flow mismatch. The next week's events could probably dictate, which

way Dubai is heading to!

ARTICLE 3

The Dubai Financial Crisis

An Oasis of Debt The Palm Islands, Dubai World and the Burj Khalifa

Feb 13, 2010 Jeff Jones

Dubai continues to struggle with the debt from massive construction projects. A $10 billion

rescue package from the UAE Central Bank has bought some time. Is it enough?

Rising from the desert sands, seeming to pierce the very heavens above, the Burj Khalifa

glimmers under a clear blue sky. Dwarfing the massive skyscrapers that make up the profile of

the city skyline, this post-modern jewel towers over the desert oasis that is the city of Dubai.

From the Palm Islands to Dubai World, the man-made islands rising from the waters of the gulf,

to the world's tallest skyscraper, the Burj Khalifa, Dubai has been building the dreams of men.

But there is trouble in paradise. Dreams are a fleeting and expensive thing. Though Dubai has

proven that such wonders can indeed be dragged into reality, more often than not they have to

be brought in kicking and screaming.


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Dubai World

According to a Bloomberg Press article by Arif Sharif and Laura Cochrane from Nov. 26, 2009

the cost of these projects has been astronomical. Dubai World, a set of man-man islands laid

out to look like a satellite view of the entire globe, has some serious financial problems. Dubai

said in an email statement that its state controlled Nakheel Company would ask creditors for a

standstill agreement so it could extend the maturity of bond dates on the $59 billion worth of

liabilites accumulated during the construction boom.

Rachel Ziemba, a senior analyst at New York based Roubini Global Economics, told Bloomberg,

"Extending the maturity of Nakheel debt is feeding the market's uncertainty on which debt

Dubai will honor in full. They look desperate and the market is concerned that in the long term

Dubais indebtedness is rising not falling."

So what happened to this desert playground of the super rich?

Dubai has been under a full throttle expansion for quite some time. Massive spending on

construction has only seen debt grow and multiply. Fears continue about the country's ability to

repay this debt. The main issue is a lack of transparency. Emad Mostaque, an equity-fund

manager for Pictet Asset Management Ltd., a London-based fund with $100 billion invested

globally, told Bloomberg Press, "There is no clarity about what exactly is happening. They have

to clarify if there is going to be a voluntary rollover or if there is going to be a forced rollover. If

there is a forced rollover it will mean technical default. If they dont clear this up then the

whole market will want to sell."

The United Arab Emirates has pledged support for the ailing economy of Dubai. The central

bank has put up $10 billion dollars to help ease the mounting fears of Dubai's debt default.

In the article 'UAE Central Bank Moves to Help Dubai' by Alistair Dawber, the details of the

rescue financing brought relief. Peter Sands, Britain's Chief of Standard Chartered Bank said,

"The UAE central bank has acted decisively and pragmatically in announcing new liquidity

measures today. Their support for the banking system will underpin consumer and market

confidence in the economy. We are confident that Dubai, and the UAE as a whole, will work

through these issues and continue to prosper as a dynamic and vibrant part of the world."

The Burj Khalifa

The problems continue on other fronts. The 2,716.5 ft, $1.5 billion Burj Khalifa, officially opened

in January of 2010, has had some growing pains of its own. According to theofficial website,

ticket sales for a chance to take in the view from the 124th floor observation deck are

temporarily unavailable due to maintenance. A Feb. 9, 2010 Telegraph.co.ukarticle by Richard
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Another bailout? Gordon Brown (right) meets Dubai's ruler Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoumat Downing Street earlier this week

The figures are particularly alarming as the sector has had to be bailed-out by the tax payer on anumber of occasions over the last year-and-a-half

Earlier this month, RBS and Lloyds Banking group received another 50billion to keep them

afloat

RBS - which has received the biggest state rescue anywhere in the world - is now effectivelyowned by the taxpayer.

As the money markets continued to falter, Gordon Brown moved to dispel investors' panic,claiming that he believed British banks were 'well-capitalised'.

Speaking at the Commonwealth summit in Trinidad, Mr Brown said: 'I think we will find this isnot on the scale of the previous problems we have dealt with.'

Asked if the Dubai situation could spark a 'double-dip' recession, he said: 'You are obviouslygoing to have setbacks with a bank here or an organisation there which has had problems, but Ido believe the world has a better way of monitoring what is happening, so we can be sure that -despite setbacks - we will continue to go forward.'


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Enlarge

Under construction: While the world's tallest tower the Burj Dubai nears completion, manyambitious building projects have come to a standst
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Abandoned: A filthy car left behind at Dubai airport after its owner became one of many ex-patswho fleeing the country after the bubble burst

Stock markets around the world have endured another turbulent 24 hours.

Wall Street plummeted 2 per cent when it opened at 2.30pm GMT this afternoon.

In London, the FTSE fell around 1.5 per cent first thing after a 3 per cent fall yesterday wipedalmost 44 billion from blue-chip stocks.

The index recovered its poise to stand 0.5 per cent lower after the first hour of trading. It was at5188.73 at 12.45pm, down from 5194.13 at start of trading this morning.

In Frankfurt, the Dax index fell 1.32 per cent to 5,540.34 while in France, the CAC lost 1 percent to 3,639.66.

Asian markets were also under pressure overnight as Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell more than 5per cent and Japan's Nikkei was 3 per cent lower.

Banks worldwide saw 14billion wiped off their market value yesterday.

Dubai's rulers have done their best to calm fears, claiming the situation was under control.

Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed al Maktoum, the uncle of Dubai's ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashidal Maktoum, said: ''Our intervention in Dubai World was carefully planned and reflects itsspecific financial position.

'The government is spearheading the restructuring of this commercial operation in the fullknowledge of how the markets would react.

'We understand the concerns of the market and the creditors in particular.

'However, we have had to intervene because of the need to take decisive action to address itsparticular debt burden.'

There were reports today that the emirate may consider selling the QE2, bought for $100millionin 2007, to tackle some of its debt.l


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Emirati traders react as they monitor data on screens at the Dubai Financial Market yesterday

A man in front of a Korea Composite Stock Price Index in Seoul this morning

Much of the debt default falls on Dubai World, which owns property developer Nakhell.

As of August, the conglomerate had $59billion of liabilities which it now hopes to avoidredeeming for six months.

Analysts had expected that the Dubai's oil-rich neighbour Abu Dhabi would offer financialsupport.
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But Dubai may have to abandon an economic model that focused on developing swathes ofdesert with foreign money and labour.

Even the prospect of an Abu-Dhabi-backed bailout did little to allay concerns among investors,already worried the global economy may not be recovering quickly enough to justify a near

doubling of prices for emerging market stocks and many commodities since March.

Tokyo traders have already dubbed the development Financial Crisis Part II.

'The panic button's been hit again,' said Francis Lun, general manager of Fulbright Securities inHong Kong.

'The biggest worry I have is whether this will trigger a repricing in the overall emerging market,'said Arthur Lau, a fund manager in Hong Kong with JF Asset Management.

'This an important reminder that the credit crisis is forgotten but not gone,' Robert Rennie,

strategist at Westpac Global Markets Group, said in a note.

Asian banks, like their European peers, scrambled to distance themselves from Dubai, a desertemirate that emerged from dusty obscurity to invest in global lenders such as Standard Charteredand lure fund managers with the promise of a tax-free lifestyle.

Bursting the bubble: The launch of Atlantis hotel (above), on one of the palm islands (below) lastNovember was an extravagant celebration of Dubai's ambitions


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The nerves showed in credit markets, at the centre of the financial storm triggered by theLehman Brothers' bankruptcy last year.

Asian credit default swaps, used to insure against default, were at their widest in a month, withthe Asia ex-Japan iTraxx investment-grade index touching 124/129 basis points.

Dubai's credit default swaps were being quoted as high as 500-550 basis points, some traderssaid on Thursday.

Dubai's debt problems are a hangover from a property bubble that imploded after the financial

crisis derailed its plans to become a magnet for tourists and a regional hub for everything fromshipping to entertainment.

Banks' exposure to a Dubai default pales in comparison to the $2.8 trillion in writedowns theInternational Monetary Fund estimates U.S. and European lenders will have to make between2007 and 2010 as a result of the credit crisis.

'Similar stories to the one in Dubai are likely to come out, leading risk money to pull out fromassets such as commodities and stocks,' said Takahiko Murai, general manager of equities atNozomi Securities in Japan.

Japan's biggest bank Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell as Japan's Nikkei average struck afour-month closing low. It also came under pressure from weak exporters after the dollar hit afresh 14-year low against the yen. The Australian and New Zealand dollars retreated.

Shares in HSBC Holdings, one of the bookrunners on an outstanding $5.5 billion Dubai Worldloan, dropped more than 7 per cent and Standard Chartered losses topped 6 per cent.


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The London listed shares of the two lenders led the biggest tumble in European bank stocks insix months on Thursday.

Will Dubai Default Sink International Islamic Bonds Market?

Dubai's debt woes are bringing the world's attention to theIslamic finance, particularly the

Islamic bonds known as sukuk. Sukuk are Sharia-compliant bonds that do not pay interest.

Instead, the sukuk sellers pay the debt holders a share of the rent or capital gains from non-cash

physical assets or share of the profits earned from businesses purchased with the money raised.

Unfortunately for the Nakheel sukuk holders, the real estate bubble in Dubai that promised big

gains from rents and sales has collapsed. And the Islamic bond holders are facing the possibility

of a major default, resulting in a dramatic sell-off of sukuk in the last few weeks. According toData Explorers, a company that tracks how much of a company's stock or bonds are out on loan,

about 75% of institutions holding the sukuk sold their position between the end of August and

the end of November. "It's an extraordinary sell-off in a bond so close to maturity, when there

was no indication of a problem refinancing. The data suggests they had some information that it

was a good time to sell," said Data Explorers managing director Julian Pittam.

Dubai's recent request for a debt standstill for Nakheel, one of its biggest state-owned

companies, has raised the possibility of the largest Islamic bond or "sukuk" default on record,raising alarms in the global Islamic debt markets.

Nakheel, the Dubai developer behind many of the Emirate's high-profile projects, has to find

$4bn to repay sukuk by the middle of this month, according to a report in Financial Times.

If Nakheel doesn't get creditors to agree to a stay on their claims, the Dubai company could be

declared in default after Dec. 14, 2009. A group of the sukuk holders, including New York-based

hedge-fund firm QVT Financial LP, have appointed London-based law firm Ashurst to representthem in the matter, says theWall Street Journal.

A December 2006 report on the Nakheel sukuk sale in Euroweek, a trade publication for capital

markets, said about 100 accounts bought the notes. Of those, more than half were banks. By

geography, about 40% of the issue was placed in the Middle East and 40% in Europe.
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Beginning modestly in 2000 with three sukuk issuers collectively worth US$336 million, the

Sukuk bonds exceeded $75 billion last year. Issuance of sukuk - both in domestic and foreign

currencies - has been quite common in some countries. The most active issuers of sukuk in the

past year include Malaysia, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Kuwait and Bahrain.

The potential Dubai default is likely to negatively affect nations in Asia and the Pacific region

planning to raise money by offering sukuk. Indonesia, Pakistan and South Korea are planning to

sell Islamic bonds offshore in separate offerings. Jakarta plans to sell up to $1 billion of global

sukuk by the second quarter of 2010, according to people familiar with the situation. Pakistan,

the only other Asian nation to have issued offshore Islamic bonds, has just $600 million

outstanding from its 2005 sale. It is looking to raise $500 million in Islamic bonds next year.

The Karachi city government is preparing to issue $500 million in municipal sukuk by February,

2010, a Pakistan finance ministry official said in September this year.

South Korea is looking to sell what would be its first ever sukuk as it continues to refine its tax

laws to facilitate issuance. It wants to attract capital from Islamic nations to diversify its funding

sources and reduce its refinancing risks. The Korean government has been planning a road show

in Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates.

Since the start of this year, $8.1 billion of Islamic bonds out of the Asian-Pacific region have
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priced, exceeding the $6.4 billion volume in the same period last year, according to data

provider Dealogic.

Last year's global economic crisis brought attention toIslamic financeas an alternative for both

Muslim and non-Muslim customers. In an article, the Vatican newspaper Osservatore Romano

voiced its approval of Islamic finance. The Vatican paper wrote that banks should look at the

rules of Islamic finance to restore confidence amongst their clients at a time ofglobal economic

crisis. The ethical principles on which Islamic finance is based may bring banks closer to their

clients and to the true spirit which should mark every financial service, the Osservatore

Romano said. Western banks could use tools such as theIslamic bonds, known as sukuk, as

collateral. Sukuk may be used to fund the "car industry or the next Olympic Games in London,

the article said.

Investors have been attracted by Islamic banking's more conservative approach: Islamic law

forbids banks from charging interest (though customers pay fees) and many scholars discourage

investment in excessively leveraged companies. Though it currently accounts for just 1% of the

global market, the Islamic finance industry's value is growing at around 15% a year, and could

reach $4 trillion in five years, up from $500 billion today, according to a 2008 report

fromMoody'sInvestors Service.

The unfolding debt crisis in Dubai is the severest test yet of the short life of the Islamic debt

markets. The process and the outcome of the ultimate resolution of the debt crisis in the tiny

Gulf Emirate will have a lasting impact on the future of entire global Islamic finance.
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3 Main Aricles on Dubai Crisis

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