“3 Horizons” and Verge EFF
description
Transcript of “3 Horizons” and Verge EFF
Given who the beneficiaries of foresight are, a 50-year time horizon REQUIRES considering where drivers will emerge
and how their impacts will unfold in the human context over the next five
decades.
The “3 horizons” framework helps map when change might phase in and out;the Ethnographic Futures Framework
helps explore and organise what changes may arise.
“3 Horizons” and Verge EFF
1st horizon
2nd horizon
3rd horizon
Time
Dominanceof model
Pockets offuture foundIn present
2009 “2020” “2030”
“Three Horizons” Model of Change (Bill Sharpe)
Graphic courtesy of Andrew Curry, The Futures Company
EFF Verge: History
Began with frustration with limitations of STEEP taxonomy
Overly broad - human systems blur STEEP boundaries
STEEP views change from the point of origin
What categories help define our lives as human beings?
“Culture points”: highlighting key experiences as human beings
Explore change at the point of impact on people and human systems
Still arguing whether “Destroy” is a key aspect of human experience
Intellectual roots in anthropology, ethnography, and ethnographic futures research (Robert Textor), as well as social impact assessment.
“LOTS of people – consultants in particular – talk about the “drivers” of change. And they’re usually referring to technology when they do so. I prefer to think about how change happens across the various segments of human experience. Human history can be dissected (and sometimes understood) as a series of eras or epochs – the Agricultural Era, the Industrial Era, the Information Age. Common to each of these eras or ages is a set of culture points which define and shape each era and which are common to all of human experience. For instance, while the role (and even the flavor) of religion has changed throughout time, the common need of humans to have a framework for understanding their world has not. Likewise, while our weapons, our choice of foods and structure of our families may change throughout time, the need for them does not.”
Michele Bowman, M.A. FuturesKaipo Lum, M.A., A.B.D. FuturesGlobal Foresight Associates
The processes and technology through which we create goods & services
The goods & services we create, and the ways in which we aquire and
use them
Social structures & relationships which link
people and organizations
The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define the world around us
The technologies used to connect people, places and things
VERGE as a Scanning Framework:
VERGE was created by Michele Bowman and Kaipo Lum of Global Foresight [email protected]
The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define ourselves and the
world around usSocial Values & Attitudes
Scientific ModelsCulture
Economic SystemsReligion
Politics & Public Policy
VERGE: changes in how we DEFINE
Example: radical biotechnology:No extinction exists between ‘natural’ and ‘artificial’; highly elastic notions of what ‘human’ looks like…
Social structures and relationships which link
people and organizations
DemographicsFamily & Lifestyle Groups
Work & EconomyHabitat & Ecosystems
Business Models & PracticesGovernment
Education
VERGE: changes in how we RELATE
Example: radical biotechnology:New ‘synthetic’ ethnicities; some ecosystems treated as living works of art; international regulatory compacts to monitorImpacts of bio-designs.
The technologies used to connect people, places and things
Information TechnologyMusic
MediaVisual ArtsLanguage
Space
VERGE: changes in how we CONNECT
Example: radical biotechnology:DNA-based computing possible; gifts of bio-designed life the new Valentine bouquets; genetically engineered organic sculptures…
The processes and technology through which we produce
goods and services
EngineeringWealth
ManufacturingInnovation ProcessesLife SciencesMaterials Sciences
Nanotechnology
VERGE: changes in how we CREATE
Example: radical biotechnology:Many new materials ‘manufactured’ on farms: goats produce proteins, plants produce plastics, etc.; ‘artificial insects’ monitor agricultural lands, water quality, etc…
The goods and services we create and the ways in which we acquire and use them - and destroy them
Consumer GoodsEnergy
Food & AgricultureHouse & Home
Entertainment & LeisureHealthcare
Natural Resources
Touch PointsVERGE: changes in how we CONSUME
Example: radical biotechnology:More ‘white goods’ mimic organisms in design: self-repair, communicate to others of their kind, optimise their intake / output of energy and waste….
EFF Verge: Case Studies
Futures presentations / workshops by Global Foresight Associates:
About identifying eternal verities around which change swirlsFidelity BankPrice Waterhouse CoopersMassachusetts Department of EducationWomen in TechnologyNissan Motor CompanyFord Motor CompanyBabson College, Boston, Massachusetts
Future presentations / workshops by Infinite Futures:President’s Panel, American Library AssociationSingapore Civil Service College
Future presentations / workshops by Henley Centre:
Royal Borough of Kensington and ChelseaEurostar
Michele Bowman, M.A. FuturesGlobal Foresight Associates
Wendy L. Schultz, Ph.D. FuturesInfinite Futures
Andrew CurryHenley Centre
EFF Verge: Case Studies
Pitney Bowes:Futuring GroupGrowth Strategy Group
MTV User Profiles: Social Technologies presented at Trends conference (ask Terry Grim), “The Future of Happiness”Created user profiles for MTV’s new customers:
Today’s users increasingly pragmatic in pursuit of happinessUser profiles: enabled comparative analysis of details of users’ lives
Health and Safety Executive ScenariosProvided organizational frame and focus for rich welter of detail generated by workshop discussionsEnabled detailed comparison across the scenarios on issues critical to stakeholders and policy-makers.
Christian Crews, M.S. FuturesPitney Bowes
Andy Hines, M.S. FuturesTerry Grim, M.S. FuturesSocial Technologies
Wendy L. Schultz, Ph.D. FuturesInfinite Futures
“The VERGE framework has proven extremely valuable at Pitney Bowes in translating thinking about the future into innovation and strategic decision-making. We've used VERGE in several invention and strategy contexts to organize and make sense of the changes in the customer communications environment. ...In addition, the immediacy of VERGE content provokes leaders to shift strategies ahead of potential disruptive change, and to see these disruptions as opportunities, not threats.”
Christian CrewsPitney Bowes
Touch Points
Exercise 1, morning session:
How is 2050 different from 2009?
• Globally:
• Define?
• Relate?
• Connect?
• Create?
• Consume?
• Major actors:
• Winners?
• Losers?
• Businesses?
• Organizations?
• Nations?
Personalise this, eg, young female entrepreneur; senior environmental regulatory officer; teen consumer; etc….
You have been assigned a scenario to explore.Your task is to consider what changes might arise from now until 2050 given the drivers defining your scenario.
Using the discussion questions below, imagine how 2050 in your scenario might differ significantly from life today.
What new concepts, ideas, and paradigms will emerge to help us make sense of the world?
How will we live together on planet Earth?
What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things?
As human beings what will we be inspired to create?
How will we use the earth’s resources?
1st horizon
2nd horizon
3rd horizon
Time
Dominanceof model
YourScenario
2050Drivers
Impacts
Impacts
Impacts
ImpactsImpacts
Impacts
2010 2020 2030 20502040
What would make this happen?
Create a timeline.
Reporting back.
• You have ONLY TEN MINUTES, so…
• Choose the most vivid details to make news headlines for your future, e.g.:
• Headlines,
• People in the news,
• Newsworthy events, breaking news
• Be bold, be brief, be specific.
Add details: characters and their organisations, conflicts, collaborations, events, developments:
• 3 scenarios, 2 groups assigned to each:
• From your drivers deck, choose drivers that you think will contribute to the development of your scenario, and suggest how their impacts might emerge over the timeline;
• Using the ethnographic framework, identify important actors and organisations in your future, and explore how they might conflict and collaborate;
• What are the key tensions in your scenario, and what events do they generate as people and issues interact?
• CAPTURE AS MUCH OF YOUR CONVERSATION AS YOU CAN!
Exercise 2, afternoon session
How is 2050 different from 2009?
• Scenarios tell a vivid and plausible story about a possible future
• Drivers and emerging issues of change redefine who has resources and power
• New and old characters interact to create events in this new context
• Their interactions include conflict and tensions as well as new collaborations
• The scenario story describes not only what’s happening in 2050, but how 2050 happened: the timeline.
The processes and technology through which we create goods & services
The goods & services we create, and the ways in which we
acquire and use them
Social structures & relationships which
link people and organizations
The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define the world around us
The technologies used to connect people, places and things
EFF: scenario building focused on people
The concepts, ideas and paradigms we use to define ourselves and the world around us, including:
Social Values & AttitudesScientific ModelsCultureEconomic SystemsReligionPolitics & Public Policy
Actors: opinion leaders in the news (bloggers? virtual reality celebs?); scientists; artists and writers; philosophers and social revplutionaries… who are they and what new models and paradigms are they proposing?
New concepts, ideas, and paradigms: actors
Social structures and relationships which link people and organizations, including:
DemographicsFamily & Lifestyle GroupsWork & EconomyHabitat & EcosystemsBusiness Models & PracticesGovernmentInternational RelationsEducation
How will we live together on planet Earth? - actors
Actors: how do businesses work together in this future -- how do unions and businesses relate? Who are the key NGOs? Is the UN still relevant? What’s the most important government agency? How do families work?
The technologies used to connect people, places and things, including:
Information TechnologyMusic MediaVisual ArtsLanguageSpace
What arts and technologies will we use to connect people, places, and things? - actors
Actors: who’s the most influential news source, and why? Who are the newest celebs and what do they promote? What’s the biggest media company? What’s the new diplomatic language?
The processes and technology through which we produce goods and services, including:
EngineeringWealthManufacturingInnovation ProcessesLife SciencesMaterials SciencesNanotechnology
What will we be inspired to create? - actors
Actors: who are the angel investors in this future? Who manufactures goods, and where -- what’s the newest big MNC/TNC? What is the ‘next big thing’ in this future, and who is the “Bill Gates”? What universities produce the most discoveries? Where and how is food produced?
The goods and services we create and the ways in which we acquire and use them - and destroy them, including:
Consumer GoodsEnergyFood & AgricultureHouse & HomeEntertainment & LeisureHealthcareNatural Resources
How will we use the earth’s resources? - actors
Actors: what is the equivalent of a shopping centre? Who owns it? Is the line between producing food and consuming it distinct or blurred? Does everyone own their own home -- are homes detached, or are flats the norm? What’s the biggest energy company? What organisation provides healthcare? Who handles waste?
1st horizon
2nd horizon
3rd horizon
Time
Dominanceof model
YourScenario
2050
Drivers
Impacts
Impacts
2010 2020 2030 20502040
Who and what would make this happen?
Create a timeline.
Actors
Actors
Actors
ActorsEventsEvents
Events
Events
Events
Impacts
Events
Add details: characters and their organisations, conflicts, collaborations, events, developments:
• 3 scenarios, 2 groups assigned to each:
• From your drivers deck, choose drivers that you think will contribute to the development of your scenario, and suggest how their impacts might emerge over the timeline;
• Using the ethnographic framework, identify important actors and organisations in your future, and explore how they might conflict and collaborate;
• What are the key tensions in your scenario, and what events do they generate as people and issues interact?
• CAPTURE AS MUCH OF YOUR CONVERSATION AS YOU CAN!
Exercise 2, afternoon session