2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking...

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2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010

Transcript of 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking...

Page 1: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

2Q 2010 Earnings Call

August 5, 2010

Page 2: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include without limitation any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain the words “believe,” “anticipate,” “expect,” “estimate,” “intend,” “project,” “plan,” “will likely continue,” “will likely result,” or words or phrases with similar meaning. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including without limitation economic, competitive, governmental and technological factors outside of our control, that may cause our business, strategy or actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements include without limitation:

The Company does not intend, and undertakes no obligation, to update any forward-looking statements.

Our substantial level of indebtedness Changes in the supply of, demand for, or prices of our products General economic and business conditions in the United States and Canada and elsewhere The ability of our customers to continue as a going concern, including our ability to collect accounts

receivable according to customary business terms The activities of competitors, including those that may be engaged in unfair trade practices Changes in significant operating expenses, including raw material and energy costs Changes in currency exchange rates Changes in the availability of capital Changes in the regulatory environment, including requirements for enhanced environmental

compliance Other risks and uncertainties detailed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission

Forward-Looking StatementsForward-Looking Statements

Page 3: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

George Martin President and Chief Executive Officer

Page 4: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Q178

Q478

Q379

Q280

Q181

Q481

Q382

Q283

Q184

Q484

Q385

Q286

Q187

Q487

Q388

Q289

Q190

Q490

Q391

Q292

Q193

Q493

Q394

Q295

Q196

Q496

Q397

Q298

Q199

Q499

Q300

Q201

Q102

Q402

Q303

Q204

Q105

Q405

Q306

Q207

Q108

Q408

Q309

Q210e

Sales and Capacity Have Both Declined Since 2007Sales and Capacity Have Both Declined Since 2007

= Recession= Recession

Recovery Period “Peak to Peak”

(Months)

Source: RISI North American Graphic Paper Quarterly Historical Data, 2Q10 estimate using AF&PA Stats July 2010

Note: Coated sales = US coated paper shipments plus imports less exports

1978 to 2Q10 US Coated Paper Sales QuarterlyVolume

‘000 tons ’85 – ‘86 ’90 – ‘91 ’95 – ‘97 ’01 – ‘03 ’07 – ‘09

US Coated Sales US Capacity

(13)%

(7)%(19)%

(12)%

(34)%

Page 5: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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99%

70%

92%96%

104%101%

Jan-08

Feb-08

Mar-08

Apr-08

May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Industry Capacity utilization levels now exceed 100%

US Coated Paper Utilization RatesUS Coated Paper Utilization Rates

90% Utilization Rate Mill Inventory Reductions Drive Utilization Over

100%

Source: RISI Paper Trader

Note: Utilization = US mill sales divided by US mill capacity

Page 6: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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NewPage Total Volume – Current Trends NewPage Total Volume – Current Trends

2Q10 volume up 29% year over year and up 8% against prior quarter

1 February sales per day normalized to 31 day month

787

1,030

1Q09 1Q10

Up 31%

(Tons in 000s)

864

1,116

2Q09 2Q10

Up 29%

Up 8%

Page 7: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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CFS & CGW ShipmentsCFS & CGW Shipments

NewPage volume growth continues to outpace the industry

Source: July 2010 RISI Paper Trader; Non seasonally adjusted CFS and CGW shipments

NewPage

588

744

601

831

2009 2010

(Tons in 000s)

1,552

1,899

1,570

1,989

2009 2010

2Q10 vs 2Q09Up 38%

Industry

2Q10 vs 2Q09Up 27%

1Q 2Q 1Q 2Q 1Q 2Q 1Q 2Q

2Q10 vs1Q10Up 12%

2Q10 vs1Q10Up 5%

Page 8: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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Data source: PPPC & AF&PA

Last Data Point: May 10

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

North American Mills Paper Inventory North American Mills Paper Inventory

Mill inventory days on hand at lows since 2003 …

9 days on hand lower than a year ago … a 28% decrease

Million Tons Days of SupplyTons on Hand

Days of Supply

Page 9: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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225

300

375

450

525

600

675

750

825

900

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Printer and Merchant InventoriesPrinter and Merchant Inventories

Source: 1IDE Alliance2 AF&PA

646,000 Tons 5 -year average

Inventories remain at historic lows

Printer Inventory1

CFS & CGWMerchant CFS Inventory2

(Tons in 000s) (Tons in 000s)

Down (46)%From3Q08Peak

Down (28)%From 1Q08 Peak458,000 Tons 5 -year average

*Note: 2010-Q2 based on April and May data only

Page 10: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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End User EnvironmentEnd User Environment

Both ad pages & commercial printing demand increasing

(30)%

(25)%

(20)%

(15)%

(10)%

(5)%

0%

5%

10%

Jan

-09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-

09

Sep

-09

No

v-09

Jan

-10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Source: Media Industry Newsletter

Monthlies Ad Pages …

Up 7.9% June 2010 Year Over Year

% c

hang

e ye

ar o

ver

year

0.70

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.80

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

Jan

-09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-

09

Sep

-09

No

v-09

Jan

-10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Source: RISI June 2010 Paper Trader

Commercial Printing & Support …

Up Since Low Point In March 2010

Dem

and

Inde

x; 2

007

=

1

Page 11: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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SummarySummary

Realized volume improvement as NewPage CFS & CGW shipments are up 38% year-over-year and industry volume has improved 27% over the same period

Inventories throughout the supply chain remain very low and utilization rates are now over 100%

End use demand improving … ad pages, commercial print and educational book demand up year-over-year

We have announced price increases effective 3Q 2010, reflecting higher demand, improved utilization and input cost recovery

Page 12: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

David PrystashSenior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

Page 13: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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2Q09 1Q10 2Q102Q10 vs.

2Q09Fav. (Unfav.)

2Q10 vs. 1Q10Fav. (Unfav.)

Net Sales ($MM) $736 $817 $890 21% 9%

Total VolumeCore Paper Volume(000s short tons)

864689

1,030792

1,116868

29%26%

8%10%

Core Paper Price($/short ton)

$928 $858 $852 (8)% (1)%

Mix Adjusted Core Paper Price $858 $860 -

Market Downtime Tons (000s)- Expense ($MM)

161$40*

39$7*

--

161$40

39$7

Total Cost Productivity/Other n/a n/a n/a $20MM $12MM

Total Cost Deflation/(Inflation) ($MM) n/a n/a n/a $(18) $(9)

Adj. EBITDA ($MM) $149 $15 $10 $(139) $(5)

Capital Expenditures ($MM) $16 $11 $20 $(4) $(9)

Available Liquidity** ($MM) $288 $247 $120** $(168) $(127)

Net Debt*** ($MM) $2,963 $3,037 $3,185 $(222) $(148)

2Q10 Key Metrics2Q10 Key Metrics

* 2Q 2009 includes pulp downtime of $8MM; 1Q 2010 includes pulp downtime of $0.4MM** Available liquidity = cash + available revolver balance; Amount would be $163MM without consideration of $50MM minimum availability requirement*** Net Debt = Total debt less cash

Page 14: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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EBITDA – 2Q 2010 vs. 1Q 2010EBITDA – 2Q 2010 vs. 1Q 2010

$ Millions

See reconciliation between Adjusted EBITDA and net loss attributable to the company in appendix

10

(10)

(14)

34

0 26

1 5

9

2

(13) 15

(9)

1Q10 Adj.EBITDA

Alt. Fuel TaxCredit

1Q10 Adj.EBITDA exc'dAlt. Fuel Tax

Credit

Price Volume Basis Wt./Downtime

Total CostProductivity

excl'dIncrementalMaintenance

Expense

SG&A Inflation 2Q10 Adj.EBITDA

exc'dMaintence

andSeverance

IncrementalMaintenance

Expense

Severance 2Q10 Adj.EBITDA

12Total Cost Productivity

Page 15: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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EBITDA – 2Q 2010 vs. 2Q 2009EBITDA – 2Q 2010 vs. 2Q 2009

$ Millions

See reconciliation between Adjusted EBITDA and net loss attributable to the company in appendix

10 (10) 20

(18)

0

(70)

48

11 29

(120)

149 15134

20

2Q09 DCEBITDA

LIFOAdjustment

2Q09 Adj.EBITDA

Alt. Fuel Tax Credit

2Q09 Adj.EBITDA

excl'd Alt.Fuel TaxCredit

Volume Basis Wt./Downtime

Price Total Cost

Productivity

SG&A Inflation 2Q10 Adj.EBITDA

exc'dSeverance

Severance 2Q10 Adj.EBITDA

Page 16: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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Key Working Capital ComponentsKey Working Capital Components

1Q 2010

($MM)

1Q 2010Days2

2Q 2010

($MM)

2Q 2010Days2

Accounts Receivable $254 31 $296 28

Inventory $592 64 $552 57

Accounts Payable1 $(195) 27 $(240) 28

¹ Does not include accrued expenses and other liabilities

² Days are calculated using current and prior quarter’s actual average along with current quarter COGS (INV), current quarter COGP less DD&A (AP) or current quarter Sales (AR)

Accounts Receivable– Days outstanding improved by three days

Inventory– Reduced finished goods inventory

Accounts Payable– Days payable increased by one day. Balance increase primarily related to higher

production levels and related purchases.

Page 17: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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2Q10 Adj. EBITDA to Total Cash Generated2Q10 Adj. EBITDA to Total Cash Generated

($MM) 2Q 2010

Adjusted EBITDA $10

+ Working capital* $43

+ Other assets/liabilities $(10)

Cash flow from operations excluding interest $43

- Cash paid for interest $(166)

Cash flows from operating activities $(123)

- Capital expenditures $(20)

Free cash flow (used) $(143)

* Working capital comprised of accounts receivable, inventory and accounts payable

Page 18: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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($MM) March 31,

2010

June 30,

2010

Revolver Borrowing Base $374 $392

- Balance Drawn $0 $136

- Letters of Credit $90 $93

- Minimum Availability Required $50 $50

Remaining Availability $234 $113

Cash $13 $7

Available Liquidity * $247 $120

Treasury: LiquidityTreasury: Liquidity

* Available liquidity = cash + available revolver balance; Amount at June 30, 2010 would be $170MM without consideration of $50MM minimum availability requirement

Continue to pursue monetization of nonstrategic assets

Page 19: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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A replay of the call can be accessed via telephone (888) 266-2081 (toll-free domestic) or (703) 925-2533 (international), access code 1413360. The replay will be available starting at 2 p.m. (ET) on August 5, 2010 and will remain available until midnight (ET) on September 9, 2010.

Page 20: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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Appendix

Page 21: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to EBITDAReconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to EBITDA

1 EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are not measures of our performance under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States (“GAAP”), are not intended to represent net income (loss) attributable to NewPage, and should not be used as an alternative to net income (loss) attributable to NewPage as an indicator of performance. EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are shown because they are a primary component of certain covenants under our revolving senior secured credit facility and are a basis upon which our management assesses performance. In addition, our management believes EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are useful to investors because they and similar measures are frequently used by securities analysts, investors and other interested parties in the evaluation of companies with substantial financial leverage. The use of EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA instead of net income (loss) attributable to NewPage have limitations as an analytical tool, and you should not consider them in isolation, or as a substitute for analysis of our results as reported under GAAP.

($MM) 2Q 2009 1Q 2010 2Q 2010

Net income (loss) attributable to NewPage

$(6) $(175) $(174)

Income tax expense (benefit) $(7) $0 $1

Interest expense $67 $97 $92

Depreciation and amortization $69 $68 $67

EBITDA1 $123 $(10) $(14)

Other adjustments $262 $253 $244

Adjusted EBITDA1 $149 $15 $10

2 Integration and related severance $10MM, equity award $3MM, pension expense $13MM3 (Gain) loss on disposal and impairment of assets $6MM, equity award expense $8MM, pension expense $9MM, other non-cash costs $2MM4 (Gain) loss on disposal of assets $2MM, equity award expense $11MM, pension expense $8MM, integration and related severance costs $2MM, other non-cash costs $1MM

Page 22: 2Q 2010 Earnings Call August 5, 2010. 2 This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation.

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Historic Volume and Price TrendsHistoric Volume and Price Trends

1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10Volume (000's Tons)Core Paper Volume 1,183 1,013 1,026 883 668 689 769 823 792 868Total 1,306 1,133 1,178 1,039 787 864 966 1,069 1,030 1,116

Price ($/short ton)Core Paper Price $931 $961 $988 $983 $965 $928 $886 $873 $858 $852

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Volume (000's Tons)Core Paper Volume 1,868 2,003 2,143 4,105 2,949Total 2,227 2,374 2,524 4,656 3,686

Price ($/short ton)Core Paper Price $891 $909 $901 $964 $910

(a) We acquired the printing and writing papers business of MeadWestvaco Corporation effective as of April 30, 2005. The data includes the combined results of the predecessor and successor.

(b) We acquired Stora Enso North America Inc. as of December 21, 2007. The data includes the results from the date of acquisition.

(a) (b)