2NC Round 2 MBACounterplan2NC SolvencySeligson evidence is Guantanamo is badA) Guantanamo is reverse causalCronin, 2006 (Patrick, Carnegie Council Assistant Admin @ the US Agency for International Development and Director of Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London Stop the Bleeding of American Legitimacy http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/ethics_online/5381.html)

Nearly five years after the tragedy of September 11, 2001, there is no sign that the threat of radical Islamist terrorism is abating. But there is ample evidence to suggest that the United States is ceding global legitimacy to ruthless terrorists who kill civilians and children in the name of religion. The United States is not in an electoral contest with Al-Qaeda, but the evidence that the world's superpower has vastly diminished legitimacy to act in the world today than it did a decade ago is empirically based. Emblematic of this loss of global credibility is the June 2006 Pew poll showing more people see the United States as a greater risk to international security than countries like Iran and China. The decline of U.S. legitimacy also has strengthened rogue states like Iran, which is taking advantage of the favorable balance of power in the Middle East, and opened a power vacuum for rising authoritarian states like China. Whatever inspired Harris, the commander of Joint Task Force-Guantanamo, to equate the triple detainee suicide to an act of irregular warfare against the United States and "good public relations," the perception abroad is of the United States as a cold, Islamophobic and Machiavellian regime. The mere fact that people have been detained so long in such relative obscurity without due process of law was invariably going to be seen as the underlying cause and the suicides as a mere effect of Guantanamo Bay. One may as well as imagine the Red Army trying to explain to the media that hunger strikers in a Soviet gulag were using asymmetric warfare by starving themselves to death; yes, of course we hope that people give a democracy the benefit of the doubt, but the point is that they no longer are, and that is related to our loss of legitimacy. The fact that this is a complete misrepresentation of the United States hardly consoles the agony I feel about the chief national victim of September 11, 2001the United Statesbecoming the world's biggest scapegoat. Britain's liberal Guardian newspaper said that Harris's statement reeked of the "demented logic of Dr. Strangelove," whereas the conservative Times gently called it "unwise rhetoric." Some will dismiss at least the Guardian editorial as leftist cant; I would remind them that many in the greater Middle East see the Guardian as a propaganda rag of Western imperialism and our words must at least take that audience into consideration. How can we win the hearts and minds of the Muslim world when we cannot even win over our friends in Britain? As one Belgian paper put it, "Guantanamo is first and foremost an incredible feeder of anti-Americanism in the Muslim world the perfect schoolbook example of a country that gives up its fundamental rights in the name of the war on terror." Every time we seem to be on the cusp of regaining some momentumsuch as successfully ending Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's reign of terror in Iraqwe then inflict another wound on our public diplomacy campaign. For the past year, the Administration has been waging ferocious internecine warfare within its departments and the White House over how to win back friends and influence people despite flouting international law and public opinion with the indefinite detention of suspected terrorists. One problem is that many of the 'terrorists' held in Guantanamo without charge have been mere foot soldiers who lack an ability to wage a wider struggle. Recent moves to release many of these lesser detainees have eased the prison burden but not won the public relations battle. Meanwhile, our inability to draw distinctions or to set limitsand our apparent eagerness to underscore American exceptionalismhas made Guantanamo a millstone around Uncle Sam's neck. Our policy to date has been analogous to a military tribunal: swift, sure, resolute and without review. Some courageous Republican appointees inside the Administration have made intelligent proposals for limiting the damage to America's reputation by bringing U.S. conduct in line with international law while simultaneously safeguarding security. But too many of those proposals have fallen on deaf ears. Frequent back-channel discussions in Europe have raised expectations that we would soon see the Administration provide a roadmap for closing Guantanamo. But actions to date have been feeble and half-hearted. The outlook remains one of the United States failing to get ahead of the curve on this issue. Only dramatic and direct intervention by the President can help dig America out of its deep international rut. President George W. Bush should announce a date for the certain closure of the Guantanamo Bay prison. Such an act would stanch the bleeding of our legitimacy and remind our friends that we really are the good guys in this long struggle. If the President does not act decisively, then members of Congress on both sides of the aisle should move to heal this wound to our national credibility.B) Terror List- the Allen evidence indicates that the terror list removal is a bad omen for US policies in latin america

C) Venezuela- The griffin evidence says that Venezuela is a major player in Latin America so only engaging with them is able to spillover

Our Suchlicki evidence indicates that in the past we have done policies that have done sustainable agriculture. This resolve the entirety of the advantage. There is no reason why we need to lift the embargo on Cuba in order to adopt their policy of organoponics. They missed the line in the 1nc that makes the best argument-Already companies in the United States, such as Farmscape Gardens in southern California, recognize what Cuba's organoponic system could achieve and have integrated it into their business practicesMultilateralismAlt CausesA) Extend Gbay, Terror List, and Venezuela from the CPB) Human Rights, Cyberattacks, Indefinite detention, and wire tappingGreenwald 12Glenn Greenwald is an American political journalist, lawyer, columnist, blogger, and author [June 25, 2012, Collapsing U.S. credibility, http://www.salon.com/2012/06/25/collapsing_u_s_credibility/]

Two Op-Eds in The New York Times this morning both warn of the precipitous decline of American credibility on matters of human rights and peace ushered in by the Obama presidency. Taken together, they explain much of why Ive been writing what Ive been writing over the last three years. The first is from Columbia Professor and cyber expert Misha Glenny, who explains the significance of the first ever deployment of cyberwarfare by the U.S. (first under Bush and accelerated under Obama), along with Israel, against Iran: THE decision by the United States and Israel to develop and then deploy the Stuxnet computer worm against an Iranian nuclear facility late in George W. Bushs presidency marked a significant and dangerous turning point in the gradual militarization of the Internet. Washington has begun to cross the Rubicon. If it continues, contemporary warfare will change fundamentally as we move into hazardous and uncharted territory. It is one thing to write viruses and lock them away safely for future use should circumstances dictate it. It is quite another to deploy them in peacetime. Stuxnet has effectively fired the starting gun in a new arms race that is very likely to lead to the spread of similar and still more powerful offensive cyberweaponry across the Internet. Unlike nuclear or chemical weapons, however, countries are developing cyberweapons outside any regulatory framework. . . . Stuxnet was originally deployed with the specific aim of infecting the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in Iran. This required sneaking a memory stick into the plant to introduce the virus to its private and secure offline network. But despite Natanzs isolation, Stuxnet somehow escaped into the cyberwild, eventually affecting hundreds of thousands of systems worldwide. This is one of the frightening dangers of an uncontrolled arms race in cyberspace; once released, virus developers generally lose control of their inventions, which will inevitably seek out and attack the networks of innocent parties. Moreover, all countries that possess an offensive cyber capability will be tempted to use it now that the first shot has been fired. . . . The United States has long been a commendable leader in combating the spread of malicious computer code, known as malware, that pranksters, criminals, intelligence services and terrorist organizations have been using to further their own ends. But by introducing such pernicious viruses as Stuxnet and Flame, America has severely undermined its moral and political credibility. He also explains that the Obama administration opposes any treaties to regulate all of this in part because it might undermine its presumed superiority in the field of cyberweaponry and robotics, and because it claims Russia and China (but not, of course, the U.S.) would attempt to exploit such treaties to control the Internet. In case anyone thinks hes being melodramatic in his warnings, the original New York Times article by David Sanger that confirmed U.S. responsibility for the cyber attack included this passage: Mr. Obama, according to participants in the many Situation Room meetings on Olympic Games, was acutely aware that with every attack he was pushing the United States into new territory, much as his predecessors had with the first use of atomic weapons in the 1940s, of intercontinental missiles in the 1950s and of drones in the past decade. It also explained that Americas maiden use of this new form of warfare could enable other countries, terrorists or hackers to justify their own attacks. The second is from former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, an actually meritorious Nobel Peace Prize winner, who describes the record of his fellow Nobel laureate, the current President, in an Op-Ed entitled A Cruel and Unusual Record: Revelations that top officials are targeting people to be assassinated abroad, including American citizens, are only the most recent, disturbing proof of how far our nations violation of human rights has extended. This development began after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and has been sanctioned and escalated by bipartisan executive and legislative actions, without dissent from the general public. As a result, our country can no longer speak with moral authority on these critical issues. . . . . It is disturbing that, instead of strengthening these principles, our governments counterterrorism policies are now clearly violating at least 10 of the [Declaration on Human Rights'] 30 articles, including the prohibition against cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment. Recent legislation has made legal the presidents right to detain a person indefinitely on suspicion of affiliation with terrorist organizations or associated forces, a broad, vague power that can be abused without meaningful oversight from the courts or Congress (the law is currently being blocked by a federal judge). This law violates the right to freedom of expression and to be presumed innocent until proved guilty, two other rights enshrined in the declaration. In addition to American citizens being targeted for assassination or indefinite detention, recent laws have canceled the restraints in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 to allow unprecedented violations of our rights to privacy through warrantless wiretapping and government mining of our electronic communications. . . . Despite an arbitrary rule that any man killed by drones is declared an enemy terrorist, the death of nearby innocent women and children is accepted as inevitable. After more than 30 airstrikes on civilian homes this year in Afghanistan, President Hamid Karzai has demanded that such attacks end, but the practice continues in areas of Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen that are not in any war zone. We dont know how many hundreds of innocent civilians have been killed in these attacks, each one approved by the highest authorities in Washington. This would have been unthinkable in previous times. These policies clearly affect American foreign policy. Top intelligence and military officials, as well as rights defenders in targeted areas, affirm that the great escalation in drone attacks has turned aggrieved families toward terrorist organizations, aroused civilian populations against us and permitted repressive governments to cite such actions to justify their own despotic behavior. . . . At a time when popular revolutions are sweeping the globe, the United States should be strengthening, not weakening, basic rules of law and principles of justice enumerated in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. But instead of making the world safer, Americas violation of international human rights abets our enemies and alienates our friends. One can reasonably object to Carters Op-Ed on the ground that it romanticizes a non-existent American past (systematic human rights abuses are hardly a new development in the post-9/11 world), but what cannot be reasonably disputed is the trend he denounces. Note that the most egregious examples he cites assassinating U.S. citizens without due process, civilian-killing drone attacks, the indefinite detention provisions of the NDAA had some genesis under Bush but are hallmarks of Obama policy (his other example, the rapid erosion of constraints on government domestic surveillance, took place under both, with the full support of Obama). Its a remarkably scathing denunciation of the record of his own political party and its current leader.C) Humanitarian aid facilitates effective multilateral leadershipPeter Buxbaum. 1.16.09. Soft power with guns. International Relations and Security Network. Peter Buxbaum, a Washington-based independent journalist, has been writing about defense, security, business and technology for 15 years. His work has appeared in publications such as Fortune, Forbes, Chief Executive, Information Week, Defense Technology International, Homeland Security and Computerworld. http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=95415It hardly could have been a coincidence. On Wednesday last week, the Pentagon's Military Health Service chief spoke before the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington on the role of the US military in global health. Meanwhile, the head surgeon of US Africa Command flew in from Stuttgart to chair a two-day symposium beginning on Thursday on AFRICOM's health-related activities. With a new congress having recently been convened and a president about to take the oath of office, it is not surprising that advocates of military medical diplomacy are front and center extolling the virtues of their activities. US military health officials want to protect their budgets in a Washington atmosphere that may not be the best for them. For one thing, the economic crisis has the US government pouring trillions of dollars into efforts to stimulate financial activity and create jobs, causing the budget deficit to balloon to frightful levels. More to the point, many in Washington, including Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who is being held over from the Bush administration by Barack Obama, have questioned the growing militarization of US foreign policy. By that, Gates means not only the rush to use US military force before diplomatic channels have been exhausted, but also the emphasis on using military capabilities for projects such as infrastructure building and humanitarian relief. Ward Casscells, the assistant secretary of defense for health affairs, in his talk before the bipartisan CSIS, acknowledged that Gates had proposed to cut his budget for global health and transfer that funding to programs run by the State Department, the US Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance. "Of course, I'm obliged to say, 'Yes, sir,'" said Casscells, who will also be serving under Obama. But in the next breath he went on to explain why Gates should not take the axe to his budget. Casscells' basic thesis is that the US military is moving in the direction of exercising more soft power. "Just as good health is an integral part of a person's well-being, a good health sector is vital to a nation's," he said. "The Defense Department's increasing role in global health is essential in improving security in troubled nations and minimizing conflict in others." That thesis has been backed up by US military doctrine in recent years. Department of Defense Directive 3000.05, issued in 2005 by former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld, told US military organizations to incorporate security, stability, transition and reconstruction activities into their core operations. "Is DoD out of its lane by participating in these activities?" Casscells asked rhetorically. Humanitarian assistance, disaster relief and other activities designed to win the hearts and minds of local populations are important counterinsurgency measures, he notedD) Antigua and Barbuda gambling disputeNew 13 (William; Intellectual Property Watch; United States chided as TRIPS scofflaw AT WTO; http://www.ip-watch.org/2013/03/26/united-states-chided-as-trips-scofflaw-at-wto/)

Meanwhile, in the high-profile online gambling case where Antigua and Barbuda have been given the green light to retaliate under the TRIPS Agreement by not protecting US IPRs, the tiny nation today again appealed the United States to show progress toward complying with the WTO ruling. The delegation of Antigua and Barbuda has so far not seen substantial progress on compliance by the United States with the DSBs decision, the country said in a shortened version of its statement. Nor have they seen substantial progress by the United States in achieving a settlement with Antigua and Barbuda. The country said it is disappointed by the lack of progress as the negative consequences of this protracted impasse are very real for Antigua and Barbuda. It said the case is a test for member states seeking to determine whether the [WTO Dispute Settlement Understanding] can deliver practical and timely benefits for small and vulnerable countries. It demanded a reason why after 5 years the US still cannot honour the DSB decision nor reach an agreed settlement. In January, the DSB authorised Antigua and Barbuda to use cross-retaliation under TRIPS to recover its damages. But before it sets its foot to that path, Antigua and Barbuda appeals to the United States to make one last effort at bringing its complex bureaucratic structure to a decision that will avoid unpredictable consequences, it said. The delegation of Antigua and Barbuda also appeals to the DSB to realize that justice delayed is justice denied, and urges closer attention to the systemic issues that surround this case that threaten the health of the system the WTO has for the resolution of trade disputes. E) Cohiba cigar casePava 2011 (Mindy; Executive Symposium Editor for the Emory International Law Review, J.D. Candidate at Emory University School of Law, The Cuban Conundrum: Proposing an International Trademark Registry for Well-Known Foreign Marks, Emory International Law Review; Lexis-Nexis)

Even if Cuba ends its repressive human rights policies, other disputes between the United States and Cuba must be resolved before any easing of the embargo is considered. In particular, ongoing trademark issues would need to be addressed before the two nations could work toward normalizing relations. 146 During the embargo, several U.S. companies have used brand names that originated in Cuba, as increasingly strict federal laws have barred companies affiliated with the Cuban government from registering their products in the United States. 147 Without the embargo in place to block the Cuban entities claims to disputed trademarks, the clash over the rightful ownership of these trademarks could stretch from the U.S. courts to Congress to the boardrooms of some of the largest U.S. corporations. 148 In particular, disputes involving Havana Club rum and Cohiba cigars have spanned approximately a decade each in litigation. 149 Both the Havana Club rum and Cohiba cigar cases illustrate the trademark friction that exists between the United States and Cuba as a result of the trade embargo.

Impact defenseMultilateralism fails- power dispersion, institutional fragmentation, and empirical gridlock*Sustainable multilateralism is structurally impossible a. gridlock the empirical record flows negative, despite eight successful rounds of multilateral trade Doha hit a massive rut and climate negotiations have floundered for two decades the UN has been overloaded by a plethora of security threats that have collapsed the systems effectivenessb. power dispersion the increasing number of states in multilateral institutions means the voting process takes months and a variety of diverging interests magnifies the response times which prevents quick reaction to threatsc. institutional inertia and fragmentation interventions are empirically uncoordinated and scarce resources spark intense competitions; fragmented institutions disaggregate resources and political will increasing transaction costs which dissuades countries from cooperatingd. controversial issues divergence of interest among nations along with the sheer complexity of joint cooperative efforts make reaching global deals over climate change and arms control fail Held et al 13 Master of University College and Professor of Politics and International Relations, at the University of Durham, and Director of Polity Press and General Editor of Global Policy (David, Gridlock: the growing breakdown of global cooperation, ProQuest, 5/24/2013, http://search.proquest.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/docview/1355105016) // MS

Relations2NC Overview

First, our offense Our Idsos evidence indicates that plants need increased levels of CO2 in order to continue growing- reducing or curbing emissions would curtail the ability to produce more crop yields. We outweigh on Timeframe- Starvation is happening now- there is only a risk it spikes and billions of people die. Probability- CO2 is absolutely necessary to plant growth. Without it, billions would undoubtedly die. Magnitude- Food crises escalate into food wars and regional conflictsSmith 98[Paul J., Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, http://www.apcss.org/Publications/Report_Food_Security_98.html]Food security and political stability are often inextricably linked in many countries. Historically, significant malnutrition and famine have been caused by the disruption of food supplies through wars and civil strife.53 Yet, the concepts of food security and political stability are often mutually dependent and reinforcing. Food security, for example, can influence the political stability of countries. Simultaneously, political instability (such as wars or other forms of civil strife) can influence food security, as can be seen recently in the case of Indonesia. One seminar participant noted that the greatest risk for regime stability is the risk of urban riotsriots that are sometimes sparked by food shortages or sudden price increases among food products. Generally, starvation in the countryside does not result in political instability. This is because those who experience the brunt of food shortages tend to be rural and have little political voice. A recent example of this phenomenon occurred in India where rising food prices led to urban riots directed at Indias ruling political partythe Bharatiya Janata Party. Similarly, when the price of rice soared in Indonesia, thereby making it prohibitively expensive for a large segment of the population, food riots erupted in eastern Java. The government deployed military forces around markets to prevent looting. Moreover, Chinas sharp rejection of the Lester Brown thesis that China needs to import massive amounts of grain from the world market in the coming century was partially rooted in a persistent fear within the Chinese government that food insecurity could potentially provoke widespread anger against the Communist Party and perhaps lead to civil unrest. Thus, the sensitivity that many Asian governments have about food security may be linked to fears of social instability and perhaps even political revolution. Food security thus becomes an issue of regime survival. Another security concern prominent in many Asian capitals is the prospect for increased economic migration as a result of food shortages. Internal migration is the first concern for many governments, especially as internal migration is often a natural "coping response" in times of famine. When North Korea experienced severe floods in September 1995, South Korea responded by creating refugee camps to deal with the possible flood of people who might have fled toward the south. Similarly, Indonesias food crisis in 1997 was partly responsible for the outflow of thousands of Indonesian migrants to Malaysia. As the crisis in Indonesia intensified in early 1998, many neighboring countries feared that many more "hungry Indonesians [would] take to boats in search of a better life."54Many countries in East Asia are extremely sensitive and wary about immigrationespecially mass migration or illegal migration. The recent surge in labor and economic migration throughout the region has catapulted the immigration issue to the highest levels of government. Immigration disputes, moreover, have broken out between nationssuch as the in case of Singapore and the Philippines in 1995regarding illegal immigration and repatriation policies. Few governments in the region officially desire more immigration. To the extent that food insecurity might spur greater migration, then it may be viewed by many governments in the region as a security concern.And, It causes nitrogen absorption that solves warming Idsos, 11 [Sherwood PhD and former research physicist for the Department of Agriculture, Keith PhD Botany, Craig PhD Geography, 8/10/2011. Forests Find More Nitrogen in the Soils of a Warming World, http://www.co2science.org/articles/V14/N32/B2.php] DHirsch

Background The authors write that "soil warming experiments conducted in a variety of ecosystems, including forests, have shown short-term losses of soil carbon as CO2," as well as "acceleration of nitrogen cycling rates, leading to an increase in the availability of nitrogen to the vegetation (Peterjohnet al., 1994; Rustad and Fernandez, 1998; Luoet al., 2001; Shaw and Harte, 2001; Melilloet al., 2002; Eliassonet al., 2005)," and they state that "the principles of ecosystem stoichiometry (Melillo and Gosz, 1983; Rastetteret al., 1992; Sterner and Elser, 2002) suggest that, in forest ecosystems, the redistribution of a relatively small amount of this newly available nitrogen from the soil to the trees could result in a substantial increase in carbon storage in woody tissues." What was done In a long-term (seven-year) effort designed to further explore these closely related phenomena, Melilloet al. (2011) measured changes in net carbon storage in both trees and soil in a mixed hardwood forest ecosystem in central Massachusetts (USA) in response to a 5C increase in soil temperature imposed on a 30 x 30-m tract of land that was heated by a matrix of heating cables buried at a depth of 10 cm and spaced 20 cm apart, comparing the results from that tract of land with those they obtained on a non-heated 30 x 30-m tract of similar land. What was learned The fifteen researchers report that the soil warming of their study resulted in carbon losses from the soil; but they say that it simultaneously stimulated carbon gains in the woody tissues of the trees. Altogether, over the seven years of the experiment, they indicate that "the cumulative warming-induced net flux of carbon has been from the forest to the atmosphere," but they note that "the magnitude of the flux has diminished over time as a result of the increase in tree growth rate in the heated area." And they state that in the seventh year of the study, "warming-induced soil carbon losses were almost totally compensated for by plant carbon gains in response to warming," which phenomenon they attributed to "warming-induced increases in nitrogen availability." What it means Melilloet al. conclude that "although warming has resulted in a net positive feedback to the climate system, the magnitude of the feedback has been substantially dampened by the increase in storage of carbon in vegetation." And if their study were to continue, and if the trend established over its first seven years were to continue, one could expect to see the sign of the feedback change from positive to negative, perhaps as soon as the next year or two, and to grow more negative from that point in time, with the long-term climate feedback ultimately proving to be negative, demonstrating the extreme importance of long-term studies of this nature.

Elevated CO2 lets cotton thriveKakani et al, 4 Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Mississippi State University, Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Mississippi State University, Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Mississippi State University, and USDA UV-B Monitoring and Research Program, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins (Vijaya Gopal Kakani, Kambham Raja Reddy, Duli Zhao and Wei Gao, 2004, Senescence and hyperspectral reflectance of cotton leaves exposed toultraviolet-B radiation and carbon dioxide, PHYSIOLOGIA PLANTARUM 121: 250257. 2004, pubmed.gov | JJ)

Considerable growth and developmental variations occur in plants exposed to UV-B radiation and atmospheric [CO2 ]. Selection of leaves from a plant at different node positions provided us with leaves that differed in age, and the leaves at same node in different treatments enabled us to study the effect of different intensities of UV-B radiation and [CO2 ] on leaves of the same age. In cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. cv. DES119), Sassenrath-Cole et al. (1996) found that changes in leaf photosynthetic responses to light environment during leaf ageing were solely as a result of physiological changes within the senescing leaf and not the result of photon flux density environment or shading. Decline in photosynthesis and chlorophyll are early symptoms of senescence, with chloroplasts as one of the primary targets for degradation (Thomas and Stoddart 1980, Grove and Mohanty 1992). In cotton, remobilization of leaf N to reproductive organs appears to be the principle component leading to photosynthetic decline (Pettigrew et al. 2000) and the data also suggest that environmental factors can play a role in causing the photosynthetic decline. In our study, atmospheric [CO2 ] did not alter the senescence as indicated by Pn and chlorophyll pigments. Elevated [CO2 ], however, increased Pn by 35% similar to that recorded in earlier studies in well-watered and well fertilized conditions (Reddy et al. 1997, 2000). In this study, at 0 kJ of UV-B and with increase in leafage, a decrease in Pn was recorded with no change in chlorophyll pigments indicating that decline in Pn is a stimulant for leaf senescence in cotton. The photosynthesis activity below a certain threshold level is known to induce leaf senescence (Smart 1994, Dai et al. 1999). Hensel et al. (1993) postulated that a decrease in photosynthesis efficiency reduces sugar levels that may be an early signal for induction of senescence. In the current study, near ambient UV-B radiation (7.7 kJ) reduced the Pn of30day-old leaves by 50% compared with that at 0 kJ UV-B radiation. In detached maize leaves, senescence induced loss of chlorophyll and photosynthesis was significantly enhanced by UV-B radiation (Biswal et al. 1997). Under high UV-B of15.1 kJ, the 12-day-old leaves had Pn on par with the 30-day-old leaves in the control treatment. The 21-day-old leaves exposed to high UV-B were on par with the 30-day-old leaves exposed to ambient and high UV-B, suggesting that these leaves were in a similar senescence phase as a result of their exposure to UV-B radiation. Thus, the UV-B radiation resulted in accelerated leaf ageing.

Cottons key to the Pakistani economy we control uniquenessNadeem et al, 10 - Department o f Agronomy, University o f Agriculture, Faisalabad , Pakistan, 1 = University College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences , Islamia University, Bahawalpur , Pakistan (Muhammad Ather Nadeem, Asghar Ali, Muhammad Tahir , Muhammad Naeem 1 , Asim Raza Chadhar and Sagheer Ahmad, 2010, Effect of Nitrogen Levels and Plant Spacing on Growth and Yield of Cotton, Pakistan Journal of Life and Social Sciences, Vol. 8 No. 2, http://www.pjlss.edu.pk/sites/default/files/121-124%20(dr.%20Athar%202).pdf | JJ)

Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is considered as mainstay of Pakistans economy. It is an important cash crop, major source of foreign exchange and plays an important role in agriculture, industry and economic development of the country. In Pakistan cotton is grown on an area is 3.22 million hectares with total production of 12417 thousand bales and average seed cotton yield of 732 kg ha -1 (Anonymous, 2007). Despite of concerted efforts of breeders and agronomists, yield per unit area is still far below from many other cotton producing countries of the world. Low yield of cotton in Pakistan is attributed to some production as well as economic constraints. Poor quality seed, low seed rate, low plant population, poor management or agronomic practices, conventional sowing methods, imbalanced fertilizer application, weed infestation and insect attack are main causes of its low yield. In cotton plant, spacing has effects on the growth and yield characteristics of the plant. Plant population (density) is very important for attaining optimum crop growth and yield under irrigated conditions. Mostly, farmers maintain plant spacing and density according to their traditional methods of planting rather than variety requirement and hence do not obtain the high crop yield. Hussain et al. (2000) reported that 30 cm spacing between cotton plants increased plant height, number of bolls per plant and boll weight as compared to 10 cm and 20 cm. However, plant spacing did not affect ginning out turn or fiber quality. On the other hand Muhammad et al. (2002) found that boll weight decreased by increasing plant population. The field conditions that produce short stature plants can generally tolerate higher plant density without incurring significant yield reduction (Hake et al., 1991). Adequate plant population facilitates the efficient use of applied fertilizers and irrigation (Abbas, 2000). When density is low, fruiting branches are longer and a greater percentage of bolls are produced on outer position of fruiting branches but first position bolls produced by high density are the biggest and best resulting in high yield. Fruit initiation was influenced by plant density in upland cotton (Buxton et al., 1977).

Nuclear WarGuthrie, 2K (Grant, J.D. candidate, 2000, University of California, Hastings College of the Law., Hastings International and Comparative Law Review Nuclear Testing Rocks the Sub-Continent: Can International Law Halt the Impending Nuclear Conflict Between India and Pakistan? Spring/Summer 2000, pg lexis wyo-ef)Nuclear testing creates political instability because it requires a substantial economic investment. One, small fission device typically costs five million U.S. dollars to manufacture. 84 Pakistan's economy is fragile already. 85 Pakistan's total budget for 1996-1997 was $ 12.5 [*503] billion, out of which 45 percent was spent on debt service and 24 percent on defense. 86 If Pakistan begins increasing its defense budget there will be nothing left for its people. 87 The spending effects of continued nuclear tests might bankrupt the Pakistani economy. One day, the Pakistani government might be forced to sell nuclear fuel, nuclear weapons or nuclear technology to generate capital. Uncontrollable nuclear proliferation could ensue and the world political regime might become destabilized. There are strong political forces contending for control of Pakistan. 88 Pakistan has been ruled on and off by the military for half of its history. 89 In October of 1999, Pakistan's democratically elected government was overthrown and traded for a military regime. 90 If Pakistan's political climate does not eventually stabilize, Pakistan may become divided and compartmentalized, like a warlord-ridden, nuclear Somalia. Each faction would control nuclear weapons and a nuclear civil war could ensue. The world could be at the mercy of a rogue nuclear state. The effect on the world could be incredibly destabilizing.

AT: WeedsIncreased CO2 inhibits nitrogen assimilation in C3 plants but not C4 plants means all the weeds die while the crops stay aliveBloom et al, 12 - Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Biology of Stress and Plant Pathology Department, Centro de Edafologa y Biologa Aplicada del Segura, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CEBAS-CSIC), Campus de Espinardo, San Diego Botanic Gardens, The Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Sede Boqer Campus, School of Biological Sciences, P.O. Box 646340, Washington State University, Pullman (Arnold, Jose Salvador Rubio Asensio, Lesley Randall, Shimon Rachmilevitch, Asaph B. Cousins, and Eli A. Carlisle, CO2 enrichment inhibits shoot nitrate assimilation in C3 but not C4 plants and slows growth under nitrate in C3 plants, Ecology Vol. 93, February 2012, Ecological Society of America | JJ)

The results of these gas flux and growth experiments support the hypothesis that atmospheric CO2 enrichment interferes with the ability of C3 species to assimilate NO3 into organic N compounds in their shoots and that this impedes their growth. In a diverse collection of C3 species and C3-C4 intermediates, CO2 enrichment severely decreased photosynthetic O2 evolution associated with NO3 assimilation (Fig. 1a,c). There are obviously alternative mechanisms for NO3 assimilation because plants under CO2 enrichment and NO3 nutrition continued to grow, albeit often at a slower pace (Figs. 2 and 3). One such mechanism is root NO3 assimilation, which may be enhanced under CO2 enrichment (Kruse et al. 2003). Unfortunately, relatively little is known about the extent to which the balance between root and shoot NO3 assimilation varies within and among species (Epstein and Bloom 2005, Nunes-Nesi et al. 2010). In several species measured at ambient CO2 concentration, shoots account for the majority of whole-plant NO3 assimilation over the entire day (Bloom et al. 1992, Cen and Layzell 2003). This study establishes that CO2 enrichment inhibits shoot nitrate assimilation in a wide variety of C3 plants and that this phenomenon influences whole-plant growth; therefore, shoot nitrate assimilation provides an important contribution to the performance of the entire plant. Several physiological mechanisms may be responsible for the relationship between elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and shoot NO3 assimilation (Bloom et al. 2010). One involves the rst biochemical step of NO3 assimilation, the conversion of NO3 to NO2 in the cytoplasm of leaf mesophyll cells. Photorespiration is the biochemical pathway in which the chloroplast enzyme Rubisco catalyzes the oxidation of the highenergy substrate ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate (RuBP) rather than catalyzes the carboxylation of RuBP through the C3 carbon xation pathway (Foyer et al. 2009). Photorespiration stimulates the export of malic acid from chloroplasts (Backhausen et al. 1998) and increases the availability of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide hydride (NADH) in the cytoplasm (Igamberdiev et al. 2001) that powers this rst step of NO3 assimilation (Robinson 1987, Quesada et al. 2000). CO2 enrichment decreases photorespiration and thereby decreases the amount of reductant available to power NO3 reduction. In contrast, the rst carboxylation reaction in the C4 carbon xation pathway generates ample amounts of malic acid and NADH in the cytoplasm of mesophyll cells. This may explain why shoot NO3 assimilation is relatively independent of CO2 concentrations in C4 plants (Fig. 1b).SO2Warming is slowing because of sulfur aerosols. Louise Gray, 11/26/2010. Environment Correspondent for the Telegraph. Global warming has slowed because of pollution, The Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8159991/Global-warming-has-slowed-because-of-pollution.html.

The latest figures from more than 20 scientific institutions around the world show that global temperatures are higher than ever. However the gradual rise in temperatures over the last 30 years is slowing slightly. Global warming since the 1970s has been 0.16C (0.3F) but the rise in the last decade was just 0.05C (0.09F), according to the Met Office. Sceptics claim this as evidence man made global warming is a myth. But in a new report the Met Office said the reduced rate of warming can be easily explained by a number of factors. And indeed the true rate of warming caused by man made greenhouse gases could be greater than ever. One of the major factors is pollution over Asia, where the huge growth in coal-fired power stations mean aerosols like sulphur are being pumped into the air. This reflects sunlight, cooling the land surface temperature. Dr Vicky Pope, Head of Climate Change Advice, said pollution may be causing a cooling effect. A possible increase in aerosol emissions from Asia in the last decade may have contributed to substantially to the recent slowdown, she said. Aerosols cool the climate by reflecting the sunlight.

Reducing coal emissions would trigger rapid warming due to reduced aerosol cooling.N. Chalmers et al, 1,2 E. J. Highwood,1 E. Hawkins,1,2 R. Sutton,1,2 L. J. Wilcox1, 8/21/2012. 1Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, U.K.; 2NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Reading, U.K. Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of 2 near-term climate under RCP 2.6, Manuscript, accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, www.met.reading.ac.uk/~ed/home/chalmers_etal_2012_accepted.pdf.***RCP="Representative Concentration Pathways." These are IPCC scenarios designed for use in climate models, that essentially project different scenarios for changes (or lack thereof) in global emissions. RCP2.6 is a scenario of significant emissions reductions. RCP4.5 is the baseline "business as usual" scenario.***CDNC=cloud droplet number concentration

The period during which global mean surface temperature in RCP2.6 is higher than in 130 RCP4.5, discussed in the previous section, is directly related to a rapid increase in global 131 mean surface temperature in RCP2.6, between around 2010 and around 2025 (Figure 1a). 132 In this section we investigate the causes of this rapid warming, and relate this event to 133 the comparison with RCP4.5. Figure 3 shows maps of the differences between the 10 year 134 means before and after the rapid warming. In this case a positive value indicates a larger 135 value after the sudden warming identified in Figure 1. 136 As expected, there is a large reduction in sulphate load, and corresponding decrease 137 in CDNC over most of the northern hemisphere, consistent with a change in the indirect 138 aerosol effect. An increase in the effective radius is also seen (not shown). This reduces 139 the optical depth of the clouds when they are present, meaning more downward shortwave 140 flux is transmitted to the surface. There is also a prominent decrease in cloud fraction over 141 the subtropical northeastern Pacific Ocean which could be a consequence of the impact 142 of reduced sulphate aerosol on cloud lifetime. Lu et al. [2009] show that drizzle rate from 143 clouds in this region is indeed inversely related to aerosol concentration. Kloster et al. 144 [2010] also suggested that a change in cloud water path in their simulations with aggres- 145 sive aerosol reductions resulted from enhanced drizzle formation. We hypothesise that 146 the localised nature of this feature by comparison with the sulphate and CDNC change 147 is due to the cloud in this region being particularly sensitive to a change in aerosol. Cli- 148 matologically, this region is a transition zone between open and closed mesoscale cellular 149 convection [Rosenfeld et al., 2011], aerosol concentrations being lower in the open celled 150 regions [Woods et al., 2011]. Although the details of these processes are unlikely to be 151 represented explicitly in global models, the localised strong decrease in cloud fraction in 152 the northeastern Pacific ocean would be consistent with a change in cloud regime driven 153 by decreased aerosol. Other regions show increases in cloud fraction, which cannot readily 154 be explained as a direct response to the decrease in sulphate load. It is likely that instead 155 these reflect non-local adjustments of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in response 156 to the change in forcing. 157 Figure 3 also shows the difference in surface shortwave flux (panel d), surface air tem- 158 perature (panel e), and global energy balance (panel f). The predicted increase in surface 159 downward shortwave radiation is seen in the global mean and particularly in the regions 160 of decreased cloud fraction and sulphate load. A negative anomaly in surface SW is co- 161 located with the positive cloud fraction changes. The pattern of surface air temperature 162 change shows large warming over the northern continents and the Arctic, and also a local 163 maximum over the subtropical northeastern Pacific coincident with the region of reduced 164 cloud fraction. The same localised pattern appears in all the simulations of Kloster et al. 165 [2010] that include aerosol reductions, but is absent from their simulations considering 166 only future changes in greenhouse gases. 167 The surface energy budget shows the expected increases in downward shortwave radia- 168 tion. In addition there is an increase in downward longwave radiation in response to the 169 increase in GHG concentrations between the two periods, and also reflecting changes in 170 clouds. The warming due to increases in net surface downward radiation is balanced by 171 increases in latent and (over land) sensible heat fluxes. 4. Discussion and Conclusions 172 In this study we have compared projections of near term climate in the HadGEM2-ES 173 model under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. GHG forcing under these scenarios is almost identical 174 until 2020, and then declines in RCP2.6 relative to RCP4.5. However, between 2018 and 175 2037 global annual mean surface air temperature is warmer under RCP2.6. The start of 176 this period is characterised by a period of particularly rapid warming. 177 Our results provide compelling evidence that the warming in RCP2.6 is a result of a 178 rapid decrease in sulphate aerosol load. This decrease is caused by a decrease in sulphur 179 emissions in RCP2.6, as a result of the rapid decrease in coal use needed to reduce GHG 180 emissions. Thus our results highlight the difficulty of reducing the rate of global warming 181 in the near term in this model, even under extreme scenarios for reducing GHG emissions, 182 and is consistent with previous simulations by Wigley [1991] and Johns et al. [2011].

That would double warming and quickly take us above the 2-degree threshold. Dr Andrew Glikson, 6/6/2011. Earth and paleoclimate science, Australian National University. Global warming above 2 so far mitigated by accidental geo-engineering, Crikey, http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/06/06/global-warming-above-2%C2%B0-so-far-mitigated-by-accidental-geo-engineering/.

According to NASAs Goddard Institute of Space Science climate reports, global warming is already committed to a rise above two degrees. The magical two degrees ceiling determined by governments is only holding thanks to effective, if unintended, geo-engineering by sulphur dioxide emitted from industry, holding global warming to about half of what it would be otherwise. Recent publications by Hansen and his research group indicate the rise of atmospheric energy (heat) level due to greenhouse gases and land clearing are committed to +2.3 degrees (+3.1 Watt/m2), currently mitigated by the transient effect of sulphur aerosols and the cooling effect of the oceans. Sulphur dioxide is emanated from coal, oil and the processing of minerals (breakdown of sulphides to produce copper, zinc, lead and so on), and from other chemical industries. It combines with water in the atmosphere to produce sulphuric acid, which (being heavier than air) condenses and settles to the ground within a few years. Aerosols stay in the atmosphere and stratosphere on time scales ranging from hours to days and to years, depending on their grain size, chemistry and height in the atmosphere and on the physical state and temperature of the atmosphere at different altitudes and latitudes. The aerosols are short-lived, i.e. on time scales of up to a few years, but since they are continuously emitted from industry the overall level is increasing as burning of fossil fuels is rising. The continuing emission of sulphur aerosols in effect constitute a global geo-engineering process without which the atmosphere would warm by another 1.2 degrees (1.6 Watt/m2) above the present level, resulting in near-doubling of global warming (Figure 1).

Warming Not Real

No warming- Our ferrara 12 evidence indicates that global warming is a natural cycle that happens over hundreds of years. Satellite and balloon data proves that the current levels of warming have been declining for decades. Warming is not real Siemaszko 4/26 [2011, **Corky Siemaszko is a domestic writer for the New York Daily Times, Poll: Americans growing less concerned about 'global warming', accessed June 22, 2011, Lexis Nexis, AJ]

Global warming isn't making Americans sweat as much as it used to do. More than half of the U.S. respondents to a new Gallup Poll said it posed a "somewhat serious" or "very serious" threat, but the percentage slipped from 63% in 2007-2008 to 53% last year. Concern about global warming also declined in much of Europe, where the fear factor among French respondents dropped steeply from 75% in 2007-2008 to 59% last year. That's still much higher than in much of the rest of the world, where 42% last year said global warming was a serious threat. That is the same percentage as in 2007-2008, according to Gallup. "World residents' declining concern about climate change may reflect increasing skepticism about global warming," Gallup speculated. Also, Gallup noted, it could be that in tough economic times "environmental issues become less important."No warming History and scientific study prove. Scientists exaggerate studies to get research grants.Jaworowski 08 Chairman of Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw, Chair of UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation [Prof. Zbigniew Fear Propaganda http://www.ourcivilisation.com/aginatur/cycles/chap3.htm]

Doomsayers preaching the horrors of warming are not troubled by the fact that in the Middle Ages, when for a few hundred years it was warmer than it is now, neither the Maldive atolls nor the Pacific archipelagos were flooded. Global oceanic levels have been rising for some hundreds or thousands of years (the causes of this phenomenon are not clear). In the last 100 years, this increase amounted to 10 cm to 20 cm, (24) but it does not seem to be accelerated by the 20th Century warming. It turns out that in warmer climates, there is more water that evaporates from the ocean (and subsequently falls as snow on the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps) than there is water that flows to the seas from melting glaciers. (17) Since the 1970s, the glaciers of the Arctic, Greenland, and the Antarctic have ceased to retreat, and have started to grow. On January 18, 2002, the journal Science published the results of satellite-borne radar and ice core studies performed by scientists from CalTech's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California at Santa Cruz. These results indicate that the Antarctic ice flow has been slowed, and sometimes even stopped, and that this has resulted in the thickening of the continental glacier at a rate of 26.8 billion tons a year. (25) In 1999, a Polish Academy of Sciences paper was prepared as a source material for a report titled "Forecast of the Defense Conditions for the Republic of Poland in 2001-2020." The paper implied that the increase of atmospheric precipitation by 23 percent in Poland, which was presumed to be caused by global warming, would be detrimental. (Imagine stating this in a country where 38 percent of the area suffers from permanent surface water deficit!) The same paper also deemed an extension of the vegetation period by 60 to 120 days as a disaster. Truly, a possibility of doubling the crop rotation, or even prolonging by four months the harvest of radishes, makes for a horrific vision in the minds of the authors of this paper. Newspapers continuously write about the increasing frequency and power of the storms. The facts, however, speak otherwise. I cite here only some few data from Poland, but there are plenty of data from all over the world. In Cracow, in 1896-1995, the number of storms with hail and precipitation exceeding 20 millimeters has decreased continuously, and after 1930, the number of all storms decreased. (26) In 1813 to 1994, the frequency and magnitude of floods of Vistula River in Cracow not only did not increase but, since 1940, have significantly decreased. (27) Also, measurements in the Kolobrzeg Baltic Sea harbor indicate that the number of gales has not increased between 1901 and 1990. (28) Similar observations apply to the 20th Century hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean (Figure 4,) and worldwide.

Negative FeedbacksThere are negative feedbacks that naturally solve warming- First is cloud iris- our Lindzen evidence says that the area of cirrus cloud coverage decreases about 22% per degree Celsius increase in the surface temperature a change in the Tropics could lead to a negative feedback with a factor of about -1.1. A) Water VaporLindzen 9 - American atmospheric physicist and Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, A.B. in Physics, an S.M. in Applied Mathematics and a Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics from Harvard University (Richard, The Climate Science Isn't Settled: Confident predictions of catastrophe are unwarranted, 8/30/2009, Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703939404574567423917025400.html)// DHirsch

That said, the main greenhouse substances in the earth's atmosphere are water vapor and high clouds. Let's refer to these as major greenhouse substances to distinguish them from the anthropogenic minor substances. Even a doubling of CO2 would only upset the original balance between incoming and outgoing radiation by about 2%. This is essentially what is called "climate forcing." There is general agreement on the above findings. At this point there is no basis for alarm regardless of whether any relation between the observed warming and the observed increase in minor greenhouse gases can be established. Nevertheless, the most publicized claims of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) deal exactly with whether any relation can be discerned. The failure of the attempts to link the two over the past 20 years bespeaks the weakness of any case for concern.B) Cosmic RaysScafetta 12 - ACRIM (Active Cavity Radiometer Solar Irradiance Monitor Lab) & Duke University (Nicole, January 2012, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics Volume 74, A shared frequency set between the historical mid-latitude aurora records and the global surface temperature, SciVerse | JJ)

Nineteen centuries ago, Ptolemy argued that the motions of the aether (that is the oscillations of the heliosphere) alter the uppermost part of the Earths atmosphere (which was believed to be made of fire), which then alters the lower atmosphere acting on earth and water, on plants and animals (from Chapter 2 of the Tetrabiblos). Four centuries ago, Kepler explained that the earthly nature could not help but respond to the dictates of heavenly harmonies, and said that nature is affected by an aspect just as a farmer is moved by music to dance (Kemp, 2009). Ptolemy and Kepler clearly shared the common belief of their own times that the climate was influenced by astronomical cycles and understood the subtle phenomenon of collective synchronization, which has been extensively studied in nonlinear complex science since the times of Huygens ( [Pikovsky et al., 2001], [Strogatz, 2009] and [Scafetta, 2010b]). Indeed, climate change records present geometrical characteristics that suggest that the climate is synchronized, probably through the Sun and the heliosphere, to complex astronomical cycles driven by planetary and lunar harmonics. In this paper, we have studied the historical record of mid-latitude auroras from 1700 to 1900, and of the Faroes Islands from 1873 to 1966 to search for a possible physical mechanism linking planetary motion to climate. We have shown that mid-latitude aurora records and the global surface temperature record share a set of oscillations with periods of about 9.1, 1011, 2021, 30 and 6062 years. Other shorter and longer oscillations may be present, but they are not discussed here. In particular, clear quasi-60-year cycles in the aurora records are synchronized to the 60-year cycle observed in the global surface temperature and in multi-secular proxy climate reconstructions of both the Atlantic and Pacific climatic oscillations since 1650 and in Indian summer monsoon records. Charvtov-Jakubcov et al. (1988) found that a large 60-year cycle is present in the mid-latitude aurora record also for the longer period from 1001 to 1900 and other planetary frequencies are present as well in the millennial aurora record. Numerous other studies have found quasi-10, -20 and -60-year cycles in multiple climate records and in astronomical records, as summarized in the Introduction. By taking into account the results of Scafetta (2010b), this synchrony exists also with the global ocean and land global surface temperature records of both hemispheres. The aurora record cycles reveal a direct or indirect planetary influence on the Sun and on the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere. Indeed, some proxy reconstructions suggest a 60-year cycle in the total solar irradiance (TSI). In fact, TSI was almost stable or slightly decreased from 1880 to 1910, and it increased from 1910 to 1940. From 1940 to 1970 TSI may have decreased as the TSI reconstruction of Hoyt and Schatten (1997) suggests. Hoyt and Schatten's TSI reconstruction well correlates with the Artic temperature records during the last century (Soon, 2009). Finally, an increase of the solar activity from 1970 to 2000 and a decrease afterward would be supported by the ACRIM TSI satellite composite, which may more faithfully reproduce the satellite observations ( [Willson and Mordvinov, 2003], [Scafetta and Willson, 2009] and [Scafetta, 2011]) but not by the PMOD composite Frhlich and Lean, 1998, which is the TSI record preferred by the IPCC (Solomon et al., 2007). Thus, solar activity could have been characterized by a quasi-60-year modulation superimposed to other larger secular, bi-secular and millennial cycles ( [Kivsk, 1984] and [Ogurtsov et al., 2002]), although this cycle may not appear evident in every total solar irradiance reconstruction ( [Krivova et al., 2007] and [Wang et al., 2005]). It is possible that when Jupiter and Saturn are closer to the Sun, there may be an increased solar activity because of the stronger planetary tides and other mechanisms (Wolff and Patrone, 2010), and a stronger magnetic field within the inner region of the solar system forms, although the patterns may be more complicated because of the presence of other cycles that will be discussed in another paper. A stronger solar or heliospheric magnetic field better screens galactic cosmic ray fluxes. Fewer cosmic rays reaching the Earth imply a weaker ionization of the upper atmosphere. As a side-effect, less auroras form in the middle latitudes because a stronger magnetic field and a less ionized ionosphere mostly constrains the auroras in the polar region. In addition, the level of ionization of the atmosphere has been proposed as an important mechanism that can modulate the low cloud cover formation ( [Tinsley, 2008], [Kirkby, 2007] and [Svensmark et al., 2009]). Essentially, when the ionization is weaker, less clouds form. In conclusion, a solar and heliospheric modulation of the cloud system would greatly contribute to climate change through an albedo modulation (see Eq. (8)). The above sequence of mechanisms would explain why the climate presents oscillations at multiple frequencies that are synchronized with the aurora and the planetary cycles. We have used a phenomenological harmonic model based on five decadal and multidecadal frequencies with periods of 9.1, 10.5, 20, 30 and 60 years that has been detected in the aurora records and that could be associated to evident astronomical and Soli/Lunar tidal cycles. We have shown that it is possible to forecast the climate oscillations occurred from 1950 to 2010 using the dynamic information of the global surface temperature derived from the period 18501950 and the frequency information deduced from the mid-latitude aurora before 1900. Analogously, we have shown that it is possible to forecast the climate oscillations that occurred backward from 1850 to 1950 using the information derived from the period 19502010. Thus, these findings strongly support the thesis that the climate oscillations can be approximately forecasted by using astronomical cycles. The proposed astronomical harmonic constituent model for climate change based on aurora cycles is conceptually equivalent to the commonly used tide-predicting machines based on planetary harmonic constituent analysis conceived by Lord Kelvin in 1867, which is currently the only methodology that accurately predicts tidal heights. Interestingly, the traditional Chinese, Tamil and Tibetan calendars are arranged in major 60-year cycles (Aslaksen, 1999). Perhaps, these sexagenarian cyclical calendars were inspired by climatic and astronomical observations and were used for timing and regulating human business. For example, even ancient Sanskrit texts report about a 60-year monsoon rainfall cycle (Iyengar, 2009) and associate it to the movement of Jupiter and Saturn, the Brihaspati 60-year cycle, which may explain why Asian populations used sexagesimal calendars. Indeed, a 60-year cycle linked to Jupiter and Saturn was extremely well known to several ancient civilizations (Temple, 1998). The major cycles discussed in this paper are also approximately found in the major business cycles ( [Pustilnik and Din, 2004] and [Korotayev and Tsirel, 2010]). A link between planetary motion, climate and economy (which in the past could be mostly driven by agricultural productivity) would ultimately explain the interest of the ancient civilizations in tracking the position of the planets and their attempts in developing multiscale cyclical calendars ( [Ptolemy, 1940], [Maar, 1886] and [Swerdlow, 1998]). In conclusion, the results presented here strongly support and reinforce the argument of [Scafetta, 2010a] and [Scafetta, 2010b] that the climate is forced by astronomical oscillations related to the Sun, the Moon and the planets, and, as Fig. 11 shows, a significant component of it can be forecasted within an acceptable uncertainty with appropriate harmonic models.C) PermafrostNIPCC 10 (Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, leading multi-national coalition of climate scientists, Warming Reduces Permafrost Thaw Rates???, http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2010/oct/20oct2010a4.html, AM)

Authors Blok et al. (2010) write that there are "fears" that if earth's permafrost thaws, "much of the carbon stored will be released to the atmosphere," as will great quantities of the greenhouse gas methane (further exacerbating warming), as is claimed is already happening -- and at an accelerating rate -- by many climate alarmists, such as Al Gore in his 21 March 2007 testimony before the United States Senate's Environment & Public Works Committee and Michael Mann and Lee Kump (2008) in their Dire Predictions book. Quite to the contrary, however, Blok et al. report that "it has been demonstrated that increases in air temperature sometimes lead to vegetation changes that offset the effect of air warming on soil temperature [italics added]," citing the studies of Walker et al. (2003) and Yi et al. (2007) as specific examples of the phenomenon. In an attempt to explore the subject within the context of real-world experimentation, Blok et al. conducted a study within the Kytalyk nature reserve in the Indigirka lowlands of northeastern Siberia (Russia), where they measured the thaw depth or active layer thickness (ALT) of the soil, the ground heat flux, and the net radiation in 10-meter-diameter plots either possessing or not possessing a natural cover of bog birch (Betula nana) shrubs, the latter of which set of plots had all B. nana shrubs removed from their native tundra vegetation in 2007. The Dutch, Swiss and Russian researchers report that "experimental B. nana removal had increased ALT significantly by an average of 9% at the end of the 2008 growing season, compared with the control plots," which implies reduced warming in the more shrub-dominated plots, and that "in the undisturbed control plots with varying natural B. nana cover, ALT decreased with increasing B. nana cover," also "showing a negative correlation between B. nana cover and ALT," which again implies reduced warming in the more shrub-dominated plots. Blok et al. say their results suggest that "the expected expansion of deciduous shrubs in the Arctic region, triggered by climate warming, may reduce summer permafrost thaw," and that the "increased shrub growth may thus partially offset further permafrost degradation by future temperature increases," while in further support of their conclusion, the six scientists write that (1) permafrost temperature records "do not show a general warming trend during the last decade (Brown and Romanovsky, 2008), despite large increases in surface air temperature," that (2) during the decade before that, "data from several Siberian Arctic permafrost stations do not show a discernible trend between 1991 and 2000 (IPCC, 2007)," and that (3) "a recent discovery of ancient permafrost that survived several warm geological periods suggests that vegetation cover may help protect permafrost from climate warming (Froese et al., 2008)." And last of all, they note that this phenomenon "could feedback negatively to global warming, because the lower soil temperatures in summer would slow down soil decomposition and thus the amount of carbon released to the atmosphere."

Agriculture AdvantageOther CountriesThe Weinhua and the WSJ evidence both indicate that both China and Russia are able to effectively invest in Cuba. This means they can adopt things like the organoponics system. There is no evidence in the 1ac that isolates the united States as the ONLY country that can adopt the organoponics system. Additionally their King evidence indicates that because Cuba had no one to trade with when it came to foreign oil, it turned inwards and had to develop the system. There is no situation like that in the United Styates means that we wont adopt.We simply dont have the land needed to do that. We tried to do that in 2009