Implications of IFRS By Dr. Martin Ikpehai [email protected] 0803 306 7208 [email protected].
29-Jan-2016 Since Inception MSCI Daily TR £ Fund Rel. Net World · 2016. 2. 15. · 12 Upper...
Transcript of 29-Jan-2016 Since Inception MSCI Daily TR £ Fund Rel. Net World · 2016. 2. 15. · 12 Upper...
12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 2ND ~ Tel +44 (20) 7208-1400 Fax: +44 (20) 7208-1401 ~ www.odey.com
Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority
■ In January-16 the Fund returned -2.2% against the MSCI Daily
TR Net World return of -2.3%.
■ Negative performance primarily came from our holdings in the
Consumer Discretionary (-2.2%), Financials (-0.3%) and
Industrials (-0.3%) sectors.
■ Individual best performers this month were Nokia (+0.3%) and
Orange (+0.2%); the worst were Sports Direct (-0.5%) and
Pendragon (-0.5%).
Note: Allocation and attribution figures are taken at close of business and fund performance is taken at 12pm.
Source for above table and chart: Capita Financial Managers
& Bloomberg. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of
future results and is shown net of fees. Calculation on a NAV basis as at 29-Jan-16.The data below refers to the £ R share
class.
It is getting interesting. Attention has been focussed since August 11th on the
unsustainable nature of the Chinese problem. What China needs, given the over
-investment in non-productive assets estimated at $1.7 trillion a year for several
years, is a deep recession, the writing off of several trillion dollars of debt and
the refinancing of the banking system. You cannot do all that without interest
rates at almost zero and a weak exchange rate.
Equally the United States has a different problem. Since 2014 consumer
lending in all its forms – credit card, auto loans, new housing – has been
picking up and is now averaging some 9% growth in real terms. Given these
loans are typically 2x GNP, it means some 18% more dollars are in the
economy and makes estimates of 4% nominal GNP growth look unlikely. More
likely is that nominal GNP growth is up around 6%, with interest rates at only
0.5%, wages now annualising on Friday’s number at 6% and employment
growing at 3%. All of this would point to a rise in interest rates by at least 1%
over the next year.
The only offsets to this good news is that the US has overinvested itself over
the last four years, much of it related to the Chinese boom. As a result many
businesses are now operating with the price of their output way below the cost
of production. Oil is the easy industry example. Much of their debt is trading at
55 cents in the dollar, on coupons of 5 or 6% and yielding 20% to maturity.
Thus in the US there is both strong consumer-fuelled lending taking place even
as corporates are finding life difficult.
No wonder that the stock markets are also finding life difficult. Earnings are
falling and wage costs are rising. At the same time the Fed is already very
behind in raising interest rates. The boom in car sales could look very ill
advised, two years from hence, even as the rise in wages, employment and
lending mean the US economy is unlikely to roll over as easily as Wall Street
would like. All of these problem loans have a habit of ultimately ending up
with the banks. Deutsche Bank now has its CDS trading at 4% over Libor. How
can it survive at such a funding rate?
£ Class 3686.09
£ A Acc Class 131.19
£ I Acc Class 169.70
£ I Inc Class 165.54
Fund Size (£m) 387.65
Inception Date
Index MSCI Daily TR Net World
29-Ja n-2016
6-Aug-01
Since Incept ion
0
100
200
300
400
500
Aug-01 Aug-04 Aug-07 Aug-10 Aug-13
%
CF Odey Opus (£) R
MSCI Daily TR Net World
£ FundMSCI Daily TR
Net WorldRel.
1-month -2.2 -2.3 0.2
3-month -0.7 0.0 -0.8
1-year -4.7 0.5 -5.2
3-year 20.3 31.7 -11.4
5-year 31.7 49.6 -18.0
YTD -2.2 -2.3 0.2
1yr to 29-Jan-2016 -4.7 0.5 -5.2
1yr to 30-Jan-2015 12.5 17.1 -4.6
1yr to 31-Jan-2014 12.2 11.9 0.3
1yr to 31-Jan-2013 24.3 15.4 8.9
1yr to 31-Jan-2012 -12.0 -1.6 -10.4
Since Inception 268.6 93.1 175.5
CAGR since inception 9.4 4.7 4.8
29-Ja n -2016
1-year 3-year 5-year Inc.
Fund annual s.dev. 9.8 12.0 14.4 16.1
Index annual s.dev. 10.9 10.2 10.2 15.7
Alpha -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.5
Beta 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.8
Correlation 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8
Sharpe Ratio 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.5
Fund Info Ratio -0.9 -0.4 -0.3 0.4
Fund Tracking error 5.5 6.3 7.7 11.1
Treynor -1.0 10.0 4.9 9.0
29-Ja n-2016
29-Jan-2016
% Nav
Equity 67.0
Cash 33.0
12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 2ND ~ Tel +44 (20) 7208-1400 Fax: +44 (20) 7208-1401 ~ www.odey.com
Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority
The investment objective of the CF Odey Opus Fund is to achieve long term capital growth primarily through
investment in quoted equity and fixed interest stocks
throughout the world.
Comparative benchmark MSCI Daily TR Net World Index
Fund inception date 6 August, 2001
Fund type UK Long only UCITS IV
Base currency £
Share classes £R, £I (Acc. & Inc.), £A
Hedging Non-base currencies are unhedged
Dealing / Valuation Daily forward to 12pm / 12pm
Front end fee Up to 5%
Annual management fee R 1.39%, I 0.89%, A 1.64%
Anti-dilution fee May apply 0.75% to NAV on subs/reds
Min. investment ‘I’ £1,000,000, ‘R’ & ‘A’ £5,000
Dividends Income and Accumulation share classes available
Authorised Corporate Director (ACD) Capita Financial Managers Ltd
Depositary BNY Mellon Trust & Depositary (UK) Ltd.
Auditor Ernst and Young LLP
Price reporting Prices published daily in Financial Times
ISIN ‘R’ GB00B1JMNF99 ’I’ Acc GB00B54RK123,
‘I’ Inc GB00B717BM70, ‘A’ GB00B87YPX87
SEDOL ‘R’ B1JMNF9, ‘I’ Acc B54RK12 , ‘I’ Inc B717BM7,
‘A’ B87YPX8
This communication is for information purposes only and not intended to be viewed as a piece of independent investment research.
© 2016 Odey Asset Management LLP (“OAM”) has approved this communication which is for private circulation only, and in the UK is directed to persons who are professional clients or eligible
counterparties for the purposes of the Conduct of Business Sourcebook of the Financial Conduct Authority of the United Kingdom (the “FCA”) and it is not intended for and must not be distributed
to retail clients. It does not constitute an offer to sell or an invitation to buy or invest in any of the securities or funds mentioned herein and it does not constitute a personal recommendation or
investment taxation or any other advice. The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The capital
you invest is at risk and you may lose some or all the money you invest. Past performance does not guarantee future results and the value of all investments and the income derived therefrom can
decrease as well as increase. Investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the Fund may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations. This communication and the
information contained therein may constitute a financial promotion for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom and the rules of the FCA. The distribution
of this communication may, in some countries, be restricted by law or regulation. Accordingly, anyone who comes into possession of this communication should inform themselves of and observe
these restrictions. OAM is not liable for a breach of such restrictions or for any losses relating to the accuracy, completeness or use of information in this communication, including any consequential
loss. Please always refer to the Fund’s prospectus and relevant key investor information document(s) before you invest. The Fund’s prospectus and key investor information documents are available
in English and may be obtained at www.odey.com. OAM whose company No. is OC302585 and whose registered office is at 12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 2ND, is authorised and
regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Crispin Odey Portfolio Manager
Enquiries
Andrew King
Tel: +44 20 7208-1454
Email: [email protected]
Sarah St. George
Tel: +44 20 7208-1432
29-Jan-16 29-Jan-16
29-Jan-16 29-Jan-16
All sources unless otherwise stated are Odey internal unaudited data and refer to the £ R share class. All data shown is as at 29-Jan-2016, however, the attribution by
sector chart is for the month ending 29-Jan-2016.
Currency exposure relates to exposure of all assets held by the Fund, including
any forward currency positions.
0.5 0.8 0.8 1.2
7.9
13.417.8
57.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
DK
K
SEK
NO
K
CH
F
JPY
EUR
GBP
USD
%
Rank Security Notional Exposure (%)
1 Sky 9.9
2 Nokia 8.0
3 Vodafone 3.6
4 Man Group 3.6
5 Wells Fargo & Co 3.5
6 Bank of America 3.2
7 Goldman Sachs Group 2.8
8 Koninklijke KPN 2.6
9 Pendragon 2.6
10 Orange 2.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Con
sumer
Discretio
nary
Con
sumer Staple
s
Energy
Finan
cials
Health
Care
Industrials
Inform
ation
Tech
nolo
gy
Mate
rials
Teleco
mm
unicatio
nServices
%
Fund MSCI Daily TR Net World
-2.3
-1.9
-1.5
-1.1
-0.7
-0.3
0.1
0.5
Consu
mer
Disc
retio
nary
Consu
mer S
taple
s
Energ
y
Fin
ancials
Health
Care
Industr
ials
Info
rmatio
nTech
nolo
gy
Mate
rials
Tele
com
munic
ation
Serv
ices
Utilitie
s
%
Fund MSCI Daily TR Net World