29-Jan-2016 Since Inception MSCI Daily TR £ Fund Rel. Net World · 2016. 2. 15. · 12 Upper...

2
12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 2ND ~ Tel +44 (20) 7208-1400 Fax: +44 (20) 7208-1401 ~ www.odey.com Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority In January-16 the Fund returned -2.2% against the MSCI Daily TR Net World return of -2.3%. Negative performance primarily came from our holdings in the Consumer Discretionary (-2.2%), Financials (-0.3%) and Industrials (-0.3%) sectors. Individual best performers this month were Nokia (+0.3%) and Orange (+0.2%); the worst were Sports Direct (-0.5%) and Pendragon (-0.5%). Note: Allocation and attribution figures are taken at close of business and fund performance is taken at 12pm. Source for above table and chart: Capita Financial Managers & Bloomberg. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and is shown net of fees. Calculation on a NAV basis as at 29-Jan-16.The data below refers to the £ R share class. It is getting interesting. Attention has been focussed since August 11th on the unsustainable nature of the Chinese problem. What China needs, given the over -investment in non-productive assets estimated at $1.7 trillion a year for several years, is a deep recession, the writing off of several trillion dollars of debt and the refinancing of the banking system. You cannot do all that without interest rates at almost zero and a weak exchange rate. Equally the United States has a different problem. Since 2014 consumer lending in all its forms – credit card, auto loans, new housing – has been picking up and is now averaging some 9% growth in real terms. Given these loans are typically 2x GNP, it means some 18% more dollars are in the economy and makes estimates of 4% nominal GNP growth look unlikely. More likely is that nominal GNP growth is up around 6%, with interest rates at only 0.5%, wages now annualising on Friday’s number at 6% and employment growing at 3%. All of this would point to a rise in interest rates by at least 1% over the next year. The only offsets to this good news is that the US has overinvested itself over the last four years, much of it related to the Chinese boom. As a result many businesses are now operating with the price of their output way below the cost of production. Oil is the easy industry example. Much of their debt is trading at 55 cents in the dollar, on coupons of 5 or 6% and yielding 20% to maturity. Thus in the US there is both strong consumer-fuelled lending taking place even as corporates are finding life difficult. No wonder that the stock markets are also finding life difficult. Earnings are falling and wage costs are rising. At the same time the Fed is already very behind in raising interest rates. The boom in car sales could look very ill advised, two years from hence, even as the rise in wages, employment and lending mean the US economy is unlikely to roll over as easily as Wall Street would like. All of these problem loans have a habit of ultimately ending up with the banks. Deutsche Bank now has its CDS trading at 4% over Libor. How can it survive at such a funding rate? £ Class 3686.09 £ A Acc Class 131.19 £ I Acc Class 169.70 £ I Inc Class 165.54 Fund Size (£m) 387.65 Inception Date Index MSCI Daily TR Net World 29-Jan-2016 6-Aug-01 Since Inception 0 100 200 300 400 500 Aug-01 Aug-04 Aug-07 Aug-10 Aug-13 % CF Odey Opus (£) R MSCI Daily TR Net World £ Fund MSCI Daily TR Net World Rel. 1-month -2.2 -2.3 0.2 3-month -0.7 0.0 -0.8 1-year -4.7 0.5 -5.2 3-year 20.3 31.7 -11.4 5-year 31.7 49.6 -18.0 YTD -2.2 -2.3 0.2 1yr to 29-Jan-2016 -4.7 0.5 -5.2 1yr to 30-Jan-2015 12.5 17.1 -4.6 1yr to 31-Jan-2014 12.2 11.9 0.3 1yr to 31-Jan-2013 24.3 15.4 8.9 1yr to 31-Jan-2012 -12.0 -1.6 -10.4 Since Inception 268.6 93.1 175.5 CAGR since inception 9.4 4.7 4.8 29-Jan-2016 1-year 3-year 5-year Inc. Fund annual s.dev. 9.8 12.0 14.4 16.1 Index annual s.dev. 10.9 10.2 10.2 15.7 Alpha -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 Beta 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.8 Correlation 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 Sharpe Ratio 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 Fund Info Ratio -0.9 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 Fund Tracking error 5.5 6.3 7.7 11.1 Treynor -1.0 10.0 4.9 9.0 29-Jan-2016 29-Jan-2016 % Nav Equity 67.0 Cash 33.0

Transcript of 29-Jan-2016 Since Inception MSCI Daily TR £ Fund Rel. Net World · 2016. 2. 15. · 12 Upper...

Page 1: 29-Jan-2016 Since Inception MSCI Daily TR £ Fund Rel. Net World · 2016. 2. 15. · 12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 2ND ~ Tel +44 (20) 7208-1400 Fax: +44 (20) 7208-1401 ~

12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 2ND ~ Tel +44 (20) 7208-1400 Fax: +44 (20) 7208-1401 ~ www.odey.com

Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

■ In January-16 the Fund returned -2.2% against the MSCI Daily

TR Net World return of -2.3%.

■ Negative performance primarily came from our holdings in the

Consumer Discretionary (-2.2%), Financials (-0.3%) and

Industrials (-0.3%) sectors.

■ Individual best performers this month were Nokia (+0.3%) and

Orange (+0.2%); the worst were Sports Direct (-0.5%) and

Pendragon (-0.5%).

Note: Allocation and attribution figures are taken at close of business and fund performance is taken at 12pm.

Source for above table and chart: Capita Financial Managers

& Bloomberg. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of

future results and is shown net of fees. Calculation on a NAV basis as at 29-Jan-16.The data below refers to the £ R share

class.

It is getting interesting. Attention has been focussed since August 11th on the

unsustainable nature of the Chinese problem. What China needs, given the over

-investment in non-productive assets estimated at $1.7 trillion a year for several

years, is a deep recession, the writing off of several trillion dollars of debt and

the refinancing of the banking system. You cannot do all that without interest

rates at almost zero and a weak exchange rate.

Equally the United States has a different problem. Since 2014 consumer

lending in all its forms – credit card, auto loans, new housing – has been

picking up and is now averaging some 9% growth in real terms. Given these

loans are typically 2x GNP, it means some 18% more dollars are in the

economy and makes estimates of 4% nominal GNP growth look unlikely. More

likely is that nominal GNP growth is up around 6%, with interest rates at only

0.5%, wages now annualising on Friday’s number at 6% and employment

growing at 3%. All of this would point to a rise in interest rates by at least 1%

over the next year.

The only offsets to this good news is that the US has overinvested itself over

the last four years, much of it related to the Chinese boom. As a result many

businesses are now operating with the price of their output way below the cost

of production. Oil is the easy industry example. Much of their debt is trading at

55 cents in the dollar, on coupons of 5 or 6% and yielding 20% to maturity.

Thus in the US there is both strong consumer-fuelled lending taking place even

as corporates are finding life difficult.

No wonder that the stock markets are also finding life difficult. Earnings are

falling and wage costs are rising. At the same time the Fed is already very

behind in raising interest rates. The boom in car sales could look very ill

advised, two years from hence, even as the rise in wages, employment and

lending mean the US economy is unlikely to roll over as easily as Wall Street

would like. All of these problem loans have a habit of ultimately ending up

with the banks. Deutsche Bank now has its CDS trading at 4% over Libor. How

can it survive at such a funding rate?

£ Class 3686.09

£ A Acc Class 131.19

£ I Acc Class 169.70

£ I Inc Class 165.54

Fund Size (£m) 387.65

Inception Date

Index MSCI Daily TR Net World

29-Ja n-2016

6-Aug-01

Since Incept ion

0

100

200

300

400

500

Aug-01 Aug-04 Aug-07 Aug-10 Aug-13

%

CF Odey Opus (£) R

MSCI Daily TR Net World

£ FundMSCI Daily TR

Net WorldRel.

1-month -2.2 -2.3 0.2

3-month -0.7 0.0 -0.8

1-year -4.7 0.5 -5.2

3-year 20.3 31.7 -11.4

5-year 31.7 49.6 -18.0

YTD -2.2 -2.3 0.2

1yr to 29-Jan-2016 -4.7 0.5 -5.2

1yr to 30-Jan-2015 12.5 17.1 -4.6

1yr to 31-Jan-2014 12.2 11.9 0.3

1yr to 31-Jan-2013 24.3 15.4 8.9

1yr to 31-Jan-2012 -12.0 -1.6 -10.4

Since Inception 268.6 93.1 175.5

CAGR since inception 9.4 4.7 4.8

29-Ja n -2016

1-year 3-year 5-year Inc.

Fund annual s.dev. 9.8 12.0 14.4 16.1

Index annual s.dev. 10.9 10.2 10.2 15.7

Alpha -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.5

Beta 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.8

Correlation 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8

Sharpe Ratio 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.5

Fund Info Ratio -0.9 -0.4 -0.3 0.4

Fund Tracking error 5.5 6.3 7.7 11.1

Treynor -1.0 10.0 4.9 9.0

29-Ja n-2016

29-Jan-2016

% Nav

Equity 67.0

Cash 33.0

Page 2: 29-Jan-2016 Since Inception MSCI Daily TR £ Fund Rel. Net World · 2016. 2. 15. · 12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 2ND ~ Tel +44 (20) 7208-1400 Fax: +44 (20) 7208-1401 ~

12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 2ND ~ Tel +44 (20) 7208-1400 Fax: +44 (20) 7208-1401 ~ www.odey.com

Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

The investment objective of the CF Odey Opus Fund is to achieve long term capital growth primarily through

investment in quoted equity and fixed interest stocks

throughout the world.

Comparative benchmark MSCI Daily TR Net World Index

Fund inception date 6 August, 2001

Fund type UK Long only UCITS IV

Base currency £

Share classes £R, £I (Acc. & Inc.), £A

Hedging Non-base currencies are unhedged

Dealing / Valuation Daily forward to 12pm / 12pm

Front end fee Up to 5%

Annual management fee R 1.39%, I 0.89%, A 1.64%

Anti-dilution fee May apply 0.75% to NAV on subs/reds

Min. investment ‘I’ £1,000,000, ‘R’ & ‘A’ £5,000

Dividends Income and Accumulation share classes available

Authorised Corporate Director (ACD) Capita Financial Managers Ltd

Depositary BNY Mellon Trust & Depositary (UK) Ltd.

Auditor Ernst and Young LLP

Price reporting Prices published daily in Financial Times

ISIN ‘R’ GB00B1JMNF99 ’I’ Acc GB00B54RK123,

‘I’ Inc GB00B717BM70, ‘A’ GB00B87YPX87

SEDOL ‘R’ B1JMNF9, ‘I’ Acc B54RK12 , ‘I’ Inc B717BM7,

‘A’ B87YPX8

This communication is for information purposes only and not intended to be viewed as a piece of independent investment research.

© 2016 Odey Asset Management LLP (“OAM”) has approved this communication which is for private circulation only, and in the UK is directed to persons who are professional clients or eligible

counterparties for the purposes of the Conduct of Business Sourcebook of the Financial Conduct Authority of the United Kingdom (the “FCA”) and it is not intended for and must not be distributed

to retail clients. It does not constitute an offer to sell or an invitation to buy or invest in any of the securities or funds mentioned herein and it does not constitute a personal recommendation or

investment taxation or any other advice. The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The capital

you invest is at risk and you may lose some or all the money you invest. Past performance does not guarantee future results and the value of all investments and the income derived therefrom can

decrease as well as increase. Investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the Fund may be subject to exchange rate fluctuations. This communication and the

information contained therein may constitute a financial promotion for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom and the rules of the FCA. The distribution

of this communication may, in some countries, be restricted by law or regulation. Accordingly, anyone who comes into possession of this communication should inform themselves of and observe

these restrictions. OAM is not liable for a breach of such restrictions or for any losses relating to the accuracy, completeness or use of information in this communication, including any consequential

loss. Please always refer to the Fund’s prospectus and relevant key investor information document(s) before you invest. The Fund’s prospectus and key investor information documents are available

in English and may be obtained at www.odey.com. OAM whose company No. is OC302585 and whose registered office is at 12 Upper Grosvenor Street, London, W1K 2ND, is authorised and

regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Crispin Odey Portfolio Manager

Enquiries

Andrew King

Tel: +44 20 7208-1454

Email: [email protected]

Sarah St. George

Tel: +44 20 7208-1432

29-Jan-16 29-Jan-16

29-Jan-16 29-Jan-16

All sources unless otherwise stated are Odey internal unaudited data and refer to the £ R share class. All data shown is as at 29-Jan-2016, however, the attribution by

sector chart is for the month ending 29-Jan-2016.

Currency exposure relates to exposure of all assets held by the Fund, including

any forward currency positions.

0.5 0.8 0.8 1.2

7.9

13.417.8

57.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

DK

K

SEK

NO

K

CH

F

JPY

EUR

GBP

USD

%

Rank Security Notional Exposure (%)

1 Sky 9.9

2 Nokia 8.0

3 Vodafone 3.6

4 Man Group 3.6

5 Wells Fargo & Co 3.5

6 Bank of America 3.2

7 Goldman Sachs Group 2.8

8 Koninklijke KPN 2.6

9 Pendragon 2.6

10 Orange 2.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Con

sumer

Discretio

nary

Con

sumer Staple

s

Energy

Finan

cials

Health

Care

Industrials

Inform

ation

Tech

nolo

gy

Mate

rials

Teleco

mm

unicatio

nServices

%

Fund MSCI Daily TR Net World

-2.3

-1.9

-1.5

-1.1

-0.7

-0.3

0.1

0.5

Consu

mer

Disc

retio

nary

Consu

mer S

taple

s

Energ

y

Fin

ancials

Health

Care

Industr

ials

Info

rmatio

nTech

nolo

gy

Mate

rials

Tele

com

munic

ation

Serv

ices

Utilitie

s

%

Fund MSCI Daily TR Net World