28 August 2006Steinhausen meeting Hamburg On the integration of weather and climate prediction...
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![Page 1: 28 August 2006Steinhausen meeting Hamburg On the integration of weather and climate prediction Lennart Bengtsson.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032521/56649d5e5503460f94a3e07d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
On the integration of weather and climate prediction
Lennart Bengtsson
![Page 2: 28 August 2006Steinhausen meeting Hamburg On the integration of weather and climate prediction Lennart Bengtsson.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032521/56649d5e5503460f94a3e07d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
On the integration of weather and climate prediction
• What has been achieved in weather and climate modeling?
• What are probably now the most pressing issues?
• What is needed to achieve this?
• A strategy for climate prediction in Europe
![Page 3: 28 August 2006Steinhausen meeting Hamburg On the integration of weather and climate prediction Lennart Bengtsson.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032521/56649d5e5503460f94a3e07d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
What has been achieved in weather modeling?
• Useful global prediction of synoptic scale weather for more than a week ahead
• Successful introduction of ensemble prediction
• Modest achievements in seasonal prediction of weather anomalies
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
Improvements in NWP from Miyakoda (1972) to 2002. Courtesy ECMWF
How long to get to D+10 in winter?
2006 at day 9
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
St. Petersburg ensemble prediction 10.1 2006
17th onward ca -30 C
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
What has been achieved in climate modeling?
• Realistic simulation of the general circulation of the atmosphere including many extreme features
• Major progress in simulating key aspects of the ocean circulation
• Progress in incorporating the interactions with the biosphere
• Demonstrating with relatively high probability that climate variations during the 20th century have been dominated by natural climate processes
• Demonstrating ( with high probability) that the climate trend of the 20th century cannot be explained without anthropogenic forcing
• Simulations of the climate of the 21st century with increasingly realistic models
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
ECHAM5simulated
ERA40determined
from analyses.
Köppen climate zones
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
CoupledModelT63L31
Present climate
Future climate
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
Observes and simulated QBONote the marked changes in wind direction at 10-20 hPa every 26-28
month
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
20th Century (20C3M)
11/20 models have decadal signal
PIcntrl (Control Runs)10/20 models have decadal signal
IPCC AR4 Arctic Temperature Anomalies by AOGCMs
Courtesy, J Overland
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
50-year trends>0.23 corresponds to 95% significance
T
PZ 850
Sea
ice
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
Ten coldest European wintersmodel and “observations” ( Luterbacher, 2005)
Model Obs
Model global anomaly
Model height
500 hPa
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
Pre-industrial temperatures in Europe (DJF)Model results
( smaller numbers in right column are observed values prior to 1950 covering ca 200 years
Mean T STD T Min Max
De Bilt +4.3 +2.0 1.4 1.8 -1.0 -3.1 +7.6 +5.3
Hamburg +1.4 1.8 -5.0 +5.6
Hohenpeissenb. -1.6 -1.4 1.8 1.9 -6.9 -6.1 +2.2 +2,8
Paris +3.8 + 3.3 1.4 1.6 -0.8 -1.6 +6.8 +6.6
Oxford +5.1(L) 1.2(L) +0.1 +8.0
Moscow -10.6 2.6 -19.7 -2.0
Uppsala -2.5 -4.0 1.7 2.3 -8.0 -9.9 +1.8 +1.4
St. Petersburg -8.5 -7.2 2.2 2.6 -15.7 -14.6 -1.5 -1.1
Warsaw -3.3 -2.8 2.2 2.3 -11.7 -9.2 +2.3 +1.4
Vienna -2.3 -0.5 1.9 1.8 - 8.5 -5.8 +2.1 +3.3
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
T213 Cyclones (>1x103 sec-1), 1960-1990.
Simulation of hurricane trajectory during 30 years
ECHAM5 model at T213 resolution
Storms with 850 mb max. vorticity stronger than 10-3 s-1
Selected storm trajectory
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
Intensity v Speed (T213)
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
T213 Example Cyclone
Intensity and Speed MSLP
T63 Vertical Structure
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
T213 Regional Speed Distribution.
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
Effect of resolutionComparing ECHAM5 T213 with T63
Max. Speed (m/sec)
)
#/year
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
Number of observed, ERA-40 analyzed and simulated by ECHAM5 (T159) hurricanes having a maximum wind
speed higher than 33ms-1
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
What are probably now the most pressing issues?
• To better clarify what is predictable and not predictable
• To better clarify the climate feedback processes
• To determine the regional climate change and its separation from natural climate variability
• To estimate risks of extreme events on different time scales
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
Climate precdictability
• This will require models resolving high amplitude features
• This will require ensemble prediction to separate signal from noise
• This will require more advanced modeling and significantly increased computer resources
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
Climate feedback processes
• The handling of clouds in models is the single most important issue
• This is likely to require higher resolutions as clouds are associated with weather systems at different scales
• This will require detailed validation and experimentation using best possible observed data. It will best be used to use the models in a forecasting mode
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
Predicting risks of extreme events
• Significant harm to society is related to high frequency synoptic events ( hurricanes, extra-tropical storms) and to longer lasting anomalies such as heat waves and droughts
• Longer term risks include flooding in coastal areas related to sea level rise
• Global type risks (probably longer term), melting of Greenland ice, West Antarctica, major changes in ocean circulation
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
A strategy for climate prediction in Europe
• There is a need for regular climate prediction to support environmental policies
• Europe has in climate and environmental policy more or less common interests and objectives
• In order to keep and enhance credibility in modeling this could best be achieved by a European agency with long term commitments of an operational nature
• Required resources in man power and computers can hardly be found on a national level in the longer term
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
A strategy for climate prediction in Europe
• A joint European climate modeling and prediction initiative could be set up as an integrated part of ECMWF but with a research program organized in a different way
• Most of the research could best be done within national research units as now but with the difference that the work is done within a common framework
• A changed convention for ECMWF is presently being approved by the national governments and is expected to come into force in 2007
• The new ECMWF convention will make it possible to set up a climate prediction program
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28 August 2006 Steinhausen meetingHamburg
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