26 SEPTEMBER 2014 FOXTROT. OBJECTIVE To recommend which of the two COAs is more supportable in terms...

PERSONNEL ESTIMATEBRIEF

26 SEPTEMBER 2014

FOXTROT

OBJECTIVE

To recommend which of the two COAs is more supportable in terms of Personnel

Requirement

FOXTROT

SCOPE

MISSION STATEMENT CHARACTERISTICS OF AO ENEMY STRENGTH

- Disposition

- Capabilities FRIENDLY FORCES

- Disposition

- Proposed COA COAs EFFECT ON PERSONNEL ADVANTAGE AND DISADVANTAGE OF COA CONCLUSION

3

FOXTROT

MISSION

On order, JTF NOLCOM conducts show of force operations in order to deter NAF aggression that threatens the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic.

FOXTROT

CHARACTERISTICS OF AO

5

• Lakuha is a “heart-shape” island province of PH

• Total Land area = 95,258 Ha

• NE of the PH approx. 100 miles from mainland Luzon

Highest peak Mount Malindig - 1,157 m (3,796 ft.) ASL, located in the southern tip of the island

GEOGRAPHY

Lacuha Island

Gasan

FOXTROT


Lacuha Island

Gasan

LAND DIMENSION

Approx. 83% - hills and mountains area

17% built-up areas, coastal, swamp, and marshy areas

Terrain is rocky but gentle and undulating

Mountainous interior - home to rare and endangered flora and fauna.

FOXTROT


Lacuha Island

Gasan

LAND DIMENSION

Hills drop steeply - maximum elevation of 1,157 m (3,796 ft) ASL

Ideal for sustained defensive operations

FOXTROT


LAND DIMENSION

Lacuha Island

Gasan

- HILLS AND MOUNTAINS

- BUILT-UP AREAS

- COASTAL, SWAMP, AND MARSHY AREAS

- PLAIN/FLAT

- MT. MALINDIG/ HIGHEST PEAK

LEGEND:

FOXTROT


LAND DIMENSIONLacuha Island

Gasan

- RESTRICTED TERRAIN

- SEVERELY RESTRICTED TERRAIN

- AVENUES OF APPROACH

LEGEND:


WEATHER / CLIMATE

• Type III Climate – rainfall more or less evenly distributed through out the year/no clear boundary between dry and wet

• Double during May – October (Monsoon Season)

• Temperature bet 27°C to 32°C

• Humidity av e= 78% year round

• Ave rainfall 2,034.6 mm

• Driest period: January – April

• Annual precipitation: 910 mm (36in)

• Coastal region: 101-381 mm

• Higher ground: 508 mm

METOC ANALYSIS FOXTROT


WEATHER / CLIMATE

METOC ANALYSIS

CONDITION PERIODNorth-East Monsoon (Amihan)

November - April

South-West Monsoon (Habagat)

July - October

Favorable for Sea Travel May - June

FOXTROT

CHARACTERISTICS OF AO METOC ANALYSIS

Mission Area JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

AIR

MARITIME

GROUND

AMPH

UNRESTRICTED MODERATERESTRICTION

SEVERERESTRICTION

CLIMATOLOGICAL EFFECTS ON MILITARY OPERATIONS

FOXTROT


EFFECTS ON ENEMY/FRIENDLY COAs:SITUATION

EFFECT ON ENEMY COAS EFFECT ON FF COAS

TROPICAL RAINFORESTSPROVIDES LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEM (COVER, WATER, AND FOOD.)

PROVIDES LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEM, SUPPORT OF COMMUNITIES.

MOUNTAINOUS AREAS

MOBILITY HAMPERED BY RESTRICTIVE AND SEVERELY RESTRICTIVE TERRAINS.

LIMITS TROOP MOVEMENT.

CAUSES INTERFERENCES TO LOS COMMU EQIPT

MOBILITY HAMPERED BY RESTRICTIVE AND SEVERELY RESTRICTIVE TERRAINS

LIMITS TROOP MOVEMENT.

INTERFERENCES TO LOS COMMU EQUIPT

CONCENTRATION OF DRRO DURING TYPHOON (LANDSLIDE AND FLASHFLOODS) AND FOREST FIRES DURING DRY SEASON

FOXTROT




GENERALLY SURROUNDED BY COASTLINE

ADVANTAGEOUS TO AMPHIBIOUS OPNS

OBSTACLE POSITIONS HAMPER MOBILITY

ADVANTAGEOUS TO AMPHIBIOUS LANDINGS OBSTACLE POSITIONS HAMPER MOBILITY

CONSIDERATION FOR DRRO EFFORT DURING TYPHOON.

THICK VEGETATION

PROVIDES COVER AND CONCEALMENT.

DIFFICULT FOR MANEUVER OF ARMOR ASSETS AND CAS OPS.

PROVIDES COVER AND CONCEALMENT.

DIFFICULT FOR MANEUVER OF ARMOR ASSETS AND CAS OPS.

FOXTROT




SOUTH BASINSHELTERING AREA FOR SEA VESSELS

SHELTERING AREA FOR SEA VESSELS

TAKLUBU REEFHAZARDOUS TO AMPHIBIOUS LANDINGS

HAZARDOUS TO AMPHIBIOUS LANDING

FOXTROT

ENEMY STRENGTH:FOXTROTFLEET

Nuvarian flotillas LSD Flotilla Polnocny Flotilla Destroyer Flotilla Frigate Flotilla Support Flotilla Naval infantry brigades 3 Infantry Brigades

AIR FORCE 2 Fighter Wing (SU 27) 2 Fighter Wing (Mirage 2000) 2 Ground Attack Wing (SU 24 MK) 1 Transport Wing (AN12/ C130)

Fighter wing has 81 aircraft eachGround attack wing has 81 aircraft eachTransport wing has 45 aircraft

ARMY

One Division -

ENEMY

DISPOSITION: FOXTROT

-Ministry of Defense (MOD) located in San Juan-Chief of Armed Forces and General Staff located at Sabana Seca Naval Base-Fleet HQ and all naval ship units located at Sabana Seca Naval Base

• Naval infantry HQ and brigades located at Camp Santiago Marine Base

-Air Forces HQ and the 5th and 6th Bomber Wings located at Ramey Air Base

• 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th Fighter Wing based at Buchanan Air Station

-Army HQ and all Army brigades located at Fort Allen-Recent reports indicate suspected attempts at establishing Cyber attack capabilities

Sabana Seca Naval Base

Camp Santiago Marin Base

Ramey Air Base

Buchanan Air Station

Fort Allen

NUVARIA

ENEMY

CAPABILITIES: FOXTROT

• Night Amphibious and Airmobile Operations

• Joint Operations involving Nuvarian Fleet, Naval Infantry Bde, Air Wing, and Army Airborne Bde

• Heliborne Operations

FRIENDLY FORCES STRENGTHFOXTROT

ARMY: 7 ID 51D

NAVY: NTF 93

AIR FORCE: 3RD Tactical Air Group

Joint Special Operations Group


5th Infantry Division:

501st Infantry Brigade: 502nd Infantry Brigade: 503rd Infantry Brigade: Division Recon Battalion1ST FAR ( 3FABns X 18 105mm

How)- 1 155mm Artillery Battery (GS)

- 1 Coastal Battery Exocet MM40 Block 3 (GS)

1 Battery Stinger B SAM (manpads)

3rdMech Brigade (-): 2nd Armored Cavalry

Squadron4th Mechanized Infantry

Battalion

7th Infantry Division

701st Infantry Brigade: 702nd Infantry Brigade:703rd Infantry Brigade:Division Recon Battalion

2nd FAR ( 3 FABns X 18 105mm How)

- 1 155mm Artillery Battery (GS)

- 1 Coastal Battery Exocet MM40 Block 3 (GS)

- 1 Battery Stinger B SAM (manpads)

4rdMechBn


Navy:

1 x Inchon Class Frigate1 x Hamilton Class Cutter2 x Minerva Class Corvette2 x Jacinto Class Patrol

Vessel2 x Logistic Support Vessel4 x Multi-Purpose Attack

Crafts1ST Marine Brigade with 3

MBLTs

3Rd Tactical Air Group

6 x FA-50 Golden Eagle Light Attack Aircraf 1 x squadron combat utility helicopters (12 UH-1H; 4 Eurocopter AS 550; 4 SOKOL helicopters 4 x Super Tucano CAS aircraft 1 x F27 Mar Enforcer 2 x P-3C Orion Marpat

JOINT SPECIAL OPERATIONS GROUP

1st Special Forces Battalion (1SFB) 1st Scout Ranger Battalion (1SRC) 1st Light Reaction Company (1 LRC) 1st Naval Special Opns Unit (1NAVSOU) 1st Force Recon Company (1FRC) 1st Special Opns Squadron (1SOS)

CAR

Region IIRegion I

Region III

5th Inf Div, PACamp Melchor Dela Cruz, Upi, Gamu, Isabela

501st Inf Bde, 5ID, PABrgy Banguinge, Kiangan, Ifugao

502nd Inf Bde, 5ID, PABrgy Suyong, Echague, Isabela

503rd Inf Bde, 5ID, PABrgy Calanan, Tabuk City, Kalinga

7th Inf Div, PAFort Ramon Magsaysay, Palayan City, Nueva Ecija

702nd Inf Bde, 7ID, PABrgy San Isidro Norte, Binmaley, Pangasinan

703rd Inf Bde, 7ID, PABrgy San Juan Baño, Arayat, Pampanga

Naval Forces Northern Luzon

NSEO, Poro Point, San Fernando, La Union

NBCO, Brgy San Vicente, Sta Ana, Cagayan

TOG1,Loakan Airport, Baguio City

TOG2,School,Cauyan City, Isabela

TOG3, Camp Aquino, San Miguel, Tarlac City

TOGs, 1AD

23

DISPOSITION OF FRIENDLY FORCES

FRIENDLY FORCES

CAPABILITIES: FOXTROT

Air and surface surveillance

Missile attack

Amphibious Operation

Surface to air missile system

Surface to surface missile system

Naval blockade/ Naval Bombardment Air strike

PROPOSED COAs

COA 1 (Light):

JTF NOLCOM to deter the enemy through the conduct of joint training exercise at North East of Lacuha Island

FOXTROT

PROPOSED COAs

COA 2 (Heavy):

FOXTROT

JTF NOLCOM to defend Lacuha Island from enemy aggression by strategically deploying forces within the AO.

COAs EFFECTS ON PERSFOXTROT

COA 1: Limited personnel deployment Enhanced personnel readiness Cohesiveness through training

COA 2: Expected personnel casualty Involvement of all personnel No replacement of personnel (high

physical/mental stress)


UNITSNR OF PERSONNEL

TOTALOFFICER EP

HNOLCOM 62 88 150

OPCOM UNITS 1,636 23,945 25,528

- ARMY 1,407 17,328 18,735

- NAVY 32 (+) 4,711(-) 4,743

- AIRFORCE 91 207 298

- SOG 106 1,699 1,805

OPCON UNIT – JTF NCR 143 1,547 1,690

TOTAL 1,841 25,580 27,421

PHASE 1 - COA #1 and COA #2



TOTALOFFICER EP

HNOLCOM 62 88 150

OPCOM UNITS 1,636 23,945 25,528

- ARMY 1,407 17,328 18,735

- NAVY 32 (+) 4,711(-) 4,743

- AIRFORCE 91 207 298

- SOG 106 1,699 1,805

OPCON UNIT – JTF NCR 143 1,547 1,690

TOTAL 1,841 25,580 27,421

PHASE 2 - COA #1 and COA #2


PHASE 3 - COA #1


TOTALCASUALTY RATE (5%)

REPLACEMENT RATE (5%)

OFFICER EP

HNOLCOM 62 88 150 7.5 7.5

OPCOM UNITS 1,636 23,945 25,5281276.4 1276.4

- ARMY 1,407 17,328 18,735 936.75 936.75

- NAVY 32 (+) 4,711(-) 4,743237.15 237.15

- AIRFORCE 91 207 298 14.9 14.9- SOG 106 1,699 1,805 90.25 90.25

OPCON UNIT – JTF NCR

143 1,547 1,69084.5 84.5

TOTAL 1,841 25,580 27,421 1371.05 1371.05


PHASE 3 - COA #2

UNITS

NR OF PERSONNEL

TOTALCASUALTY

RATE (15%)


OFFICER EP

HNOLCOM 62 88 150 22.5 7.5

OPCOM UNITS 1,636 23,945 25,528 3829.21276.4

- ARMY 1,407 17,328 18,735 2810.25 936.75

- NAVY 32 (+) 4,711(-) 4,743 711.45237.15

- AIRFORCE 91 207 298 44.7 14.9- SOG 106 1,699 1,805 270.75 90.25


143 1,547 1,690 253.584.5

TOTAL 1,841 25,580 27,421 4113.15 1371.05



TOTALCASUALTY RATE (5%)


OFFICER EP

HNOLCOM 62 88 150 7.5 7.5

OPCOM UNITS 1,636 23,945 25,5281276.4 1276.4

- ARMY 1,407 17,328 18,735 936.75 936.75

- NAVY 32 (+) 4,711(-) 4,743237.15 237.15

- AIRFORCE 91 207 298 14.9 14.9- SOG 106 1,699 1,805 90.25 90.25


143 1,547 1,69084.5 84.5

TOTAL 1,841 25,580 27,421 1371.05 1371.05

PHASE 4 and 5 - COA #1


UNITS

NR OF PERSONNEL

TOTALCASUALTY

RATE (15%)


OFFICER EP

HNOLCOM 62 88 150 22.5 7.5

OPCOM UNITS 1,636 23,945 25,528 3829.21276.4

- ARMY 1,407 17,328 18,735 2810.25 936.75

- NAVY 32 (+) 4,711(-) 4,743 711.45237.15

- AIRFORCE 91 207 298 44.7 14.9- SOG 106 1,699 1,805 270.75 90.25


143 1,547 1,690 253.584.5

TOTAL 1,841 25,580 27,421 4113.15 1371.05

PHASE 4 and 5 - COA #2

COAs ADV & DISADVFOXTROT

COA #1:

JTF NOLCOM to deter the enemy

through the conduct of joint training

exercise at North East of Lacuha

Island

ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES

Not all personnel are involved in the operation

In case of heightened situation, readiness of personnel at minimum

Available Reserve Force

Unfamiliarity of personnel on the terrain

Rotation of personnel for deployment

Adaption to environment

Less force to thwart aggression

COAs ADV & DISADVFOXTROT

COA #2:

JTF NOLCOM to defend Lacuha

Island from enemy aggression by strategically

deploying forces within the AO.

ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES

100% Personnel Readiness

Physical exhaustion, combat stress

On hand awareness of the terrain

No Reserve Force

Greater force to deter enemy aggression

Wider span of control thereby affecting - Command and Control - Logistics problems

Morale Problem

CONCLUSIONFOXTROT

PERSONNEL REQUIREMENT OF BOTH COAs CAN BE SUPPORTED

HOWEVER, PERSONNEL REPLACEMENT RATE IN COA # 2 IS LOWER THAN ITS PROJECTED CASUALTY RATE

MEANWHILE, PERSONNEL REPLACEMENT RATE IN COA # 1 IS SUSTAINABLE WITH THE PROJECTED CASUALTY RATE

CONCLUSIONFOXTROT

DEFICIENCIES TO BE CONSIDERED:

- RESERVE FORCE IS NOT PROPERLY TRAINED

- MOBILIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE RESERVE FORCE WILL TAKE LONGER TIME

- COHESIVENESS OF PERSONNEL IS NOT YET ATTAINED

RECOMMENDATIONFOXTROT

BASED ON THE PERSONNEL ESTIMATE, COA #1 IS MORE SUPPORTABLE THAN COA #2

FOXTROT

END

26 SEPTEMBER 2014 FOXTROT. OBJECTIVE To recommend which of the two COAs is more supportable in terms...

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