23.September.2009 Francisco Saraiva Renewable Energy and Security of Supply A view from a TSO...
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Transcript of 23.September.2009 Francisco Saraiva Renewable Energy and Security of Supply A view from a TSO...
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23.September.2009Francisco Saraiva
Renewable Energy and Security of Supply
A view from a TSO
Cigré’s International Colloquium
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 2
Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm
Role of Electricity
Renewable Power
Role of the Grid
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 3
The Key Drivers
100
146 159
2005 2030 2050
TOTAL COST OF ENERGY
100
126138
2005 2030 2050
OIL/GAS IMPORT DEPENDENCY
100
110
95
2005 2030 2050
CO2 EMISSIONS
Security of supply
Climate changeCompetitiveness Business as Usual is unsustainable
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 4
SECURITY OF SUPPLY
Primary energy sources
Adequacy of supply systems
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 5
WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 6
More Energy EFFICIENCY is needed
The Sleeping Giant ….
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 7
Prices highly influenced by numerous factors
(extraction and refining capacity, availability of resources...)
Production’s growth might stop in 10-15 years
Conventional oil reserves. Countries with > 1 Gt oil reserves
Source: BGR
TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: OIL
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 8
Regional distribution of estimated ultimate recovery of conventional natural gas(2007)
Source: BGR
Prices linked to oil
Environmental friendly energy (comparing to coal and oil)
High efficiency of the electricity production technologies using NG (CCGT)
TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: NATURAL GAS
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 9
TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: COAL
Abundant and worldwide distributed
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) coal will be the primary energy source with the higher growth until 2030
But .... a major CO2 emitter
Proven reserves (10 biggest producers)Source: WEC, SER (2007)
Relatively stable price
Reserves estimated in 150 years, at current consumption rate
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 10
The traditional fossil energy resources
are limited
Alternatives are required ….
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 11
ENERGY SCENARIO is CHANGING all over the World
EUA:
American Clean Energy And Security Act
European Union:
Energy and Climate Package
G8, IEA Outlook, COP
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 12
«Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are
patently unsustainable - environmentally, economically and socially.
....
What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution»
World Energy Outlook 2008 - International Energy Agency (IEA) 12.Nov.08
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 13
The New ENERGY PARADIGM
Energy Efficiency
Endogenous and Renewable Energy
Sources and other Low-Carbon
technologies
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 14
Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm
Role of Electricity
Renewable Power
Role of the Grid
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 15
Lighting
Rail transport
Heat Pumps
PHEV Household Appliances
Motor Systems
Industry
Demand Side
• LESS ELECTRICITY WHERE POSSIBLE (electricity savings)
• MORE ELECTRICITY WHERE NECESSARY (more efficient processes; new uses)
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 16
Towards low-carbon power generation
and new technologies in electricity supply
Supply Side
Fossil Fuels RenewablesLow-Carbon Tech.
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 17
Sinergies+ Security of Supply
(less dependent on energy imports)
+ Environment Protection (less CO2 emissions)
Energy Efficiency (demand side)
Renewable Power (supply side)
Electricity
+ Sustainable Energy
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 18
Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm
Role of Electricity
Renewable Power
Role of the Grid
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 19
Key technologies:
Hydro powerWind energyBiomass Solar thermal powerPhotovoltaic
Renewable Power
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 20
WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL
Source: NASA
Source: 3TIER
SOLAR Power POTENTIAL
In any given hour, more
energy from the sun
reaches Earth than is used
by the whole human
population in any given
year
1070* GW OF CAPACITY
WORLDWIDE FROM RENEWABLE
SOURCES
2007 – installed capacity* Including Large Hydro (830 MW)
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 21
WIND Power INTERMITENCY Intermitency
Non-Dispatchable Power
Need for STORAGE to: DECOUPLE the LOAD
(consumption) and the GENERATION (renewable power) diagrams
REDUCE THE RISK OF LOSS of renewable resources
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 22
Wind / Hydro complementarity
16.Dec.2006
Wind Power declined from 600 MW (during base hours) to 100 MW within 4 hours
800
600
400
200
0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24
... Demand rises and Wind delivered Power declines
M W
STORAGE - HYDRO Power
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 23
STORAGE - Plug-in Hybrid Electric Cars
Low-Carbon Electricity
replaces Fossil Fuels in
the Transportation sector
• Electricity from sustainable energy resources can be used
• Zero emissions at the point of use
• Simple, silent, and affordable to operate
• They can store energy and provide Operational Reserve to the System
Portugal
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 24
EUROPE (EU) – Ambitious Targets for 2020
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 25
www.energyfromportugal.com
PORTUGAL
A case of success
43%: 2007 to a reference hydro condition (1997)
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 26
Wind Power Hydro Power Other renewables
Energy Efficiency
• Installed more than 2000 MW in 3 years
• Goals: 5100 MW in 2010 and 8500 in 2020
• Create 2 industrial and R&D clusters
• Optimize current unused hydro potential (>45%)
• Anticipate existing facilities reinforcement
• Implement the National Hydro Plan
•Promote a diversified policy on other RES
• 250 MW biomass
• 750 MW PV solar
• 250 MW wave
• 100 MW biogas
• Innovative policy on micro-generation (650 MW by 2015)
• Set a 10% energy efficiency improvement target by 2015• Free distribution of 4,5 million efficient lamps• Energy efficient buildings policy• National Plan for electric car roll out
Complementary wind/hydro policy
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 27
PORTUGAL’S WIND POWER INSTALLED CAPACITY
Source: MEI
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 28
NATIONAL HYDRO PLAN
Source: MEI, DGEG, REN UDI Database
HYDRO POTENTIAL vs INSTALLED HYDRO CAPACITY (since 1975)
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 29
Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm
Role of Electricity
Renewable Power
Role of the Grid
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 30
More RENEWABLE ENERGYGrid Expansion/Reinforcement
Huge Investments
New lines
Reinforcement of existing lines;
New substations (receiving wind)
More transformation power
More reactive energy compensation capacity
Control and command equipment
modernizationIn the future:
One-way transmission systems (from power plants to
consumers)or … a different model?
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 31
The new Grid model paves the way for
the integration of distributed generation (renewables and other micro-
generation, …) and
“consumer side” applications (demand response, home made energy, …)
Source: “Smart Gris – Vision and Strategy for Europe’s Electricity Networks of the Future”
SMART GRIDS
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 32
SMART GRIDS BENEFITS
• New uses of the electric grid (operation and “consumer side”
applications)
• More distributed generation can be integrated with the grid
• Mass-scale renewables integration
• Consumer incentive for efficiency
“Updating the way we get our electricity by staring
to build a new SMART GRID that will save us
money, protect our power sources from blackout or
attack, and deliver clean, alternative forms of
energy.”
U.S.A. President Barack Obama, 2009
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 33
More SUSTAINABLE energy …
... more GRID
more RENEWABLE energy (increased operational
flexibility) …
more ELECTRICITY (in the global energy mix) …
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Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 34
Tomorrow’s Energy
Today’s Challenge