8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

1/16

Latin America's Fragile Democracies

Peter Hakim, Abraham F. Lowenthal

Journal of Democracy, Volume 2, Number 3, Summer 1991, pp. 16-29 (Article)

Published by The Johns Hopkins University Press

DOI: 10.1353/jod.1991.0042

For additional information about this article

Access provided by Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana (29 Mar 2014 17:11 GMT)

http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/jod/summary/v002/2.3hakim.html

http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/jod/summary/v002/2.3hakim.htmlhttp://muse.jhu.edu/journals/jod/summary/v002/2.3hakim.html

8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

2/16

8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

3/16

L A T I N A M E R I C A SF R A G I L E D E M O C R A C I E S

Peter Hakim Abraham F. Lowenthal

P e t e r H a k i m i s s t a f f d i r e c t o r o f t h e I n t e r - A m e r i c a n D i a l o g u e . A b r a h a mF . L o w e n t h a i i s e x e c u t i v e d i r e c t o r o f t h e I n t e r - A m e r i c a n D i a l o g u e a n dp ro fes so r o f i n t e rn a t io n a l r e la t io n s a t t h e U n iver s it y o f S o u th ernCa l i f o rn ia i n Lo s A n g e les . Th e i r e s sa y d ra ws in p a r t o n Ch a p ter F o u r( D e m o c r a c y o n T r i a l ) o f T h e A m e r i c a s i n a N e w W o r l d , t h e 1 9 9 0rep o r t o f t h e I n t e r - A m er i ca n D ia lo g u e , a n d o n a n ea r l i e r d ra f t t h a t w i l la p p ea r i n a f o r th co m in g vo lu m e to b e p u b l i sh ed b y t he Na t io n a l D e fen seUniversi ty .

he u r n t o w a r d d e m o c r a c y in t h e A m e r ic a s h a s b e e n w i d e l y a p p l a u de din bo th the Un i t e d S ta t e s a nd La t in Ame r ic a . The W e s te r n He misphe r e ,i t is o f t e n sa id , i s on the v e r ge o f be c om ing f u l ly d e mo c r a t i c f o r the f i r s tt i m e i n i ts h i s t o r y - - w i t h o n l y C a s t r o s C u b a n o w s t an d in g i n t h e w a y .S ome U .S . o f f i c i a l s , p r e se n t a nd f o r me r , g ive U .S . po l i c y c ons ide r a b lec r e d i t fo r La t in A m e r ic a s d e m oc r a t i c ope n ings , w h i l e o the r s t h ink tha tthe U .S . r o l e wa s ma r g ina l a t bes t . The r e is , howe v e r , li tt l e d i sa g r e e m e n ttha t t he r e g iona l t r a ns i t i on f r om a u tho r i t a r i a n r u l e wa s spe a r he a de d byL a t in A m e r i c a n o p p o s i ti o n m o v e m e n t s - - p a r t i e s , u n i o n s, w o m e n s g r o u p s ,c hu r c h o f f i c i a l s , c ou r a ge ous po l i t i c a l l e a de r s , a nd p l a in c i t i z e ns . And noone doub t s t ha t i n r e c e n t ye a r s de moc r a t i c po l i t i c s ha s ga ine d impor t a n tg r o u n d t h r o u g h o u t m o s t o f L a t i n A m e r i c a a n d t h e C a r i b b e a n .

Ye t de moc r a c y in La t in Ame r ic a i s f a r f r om r obus t . I t i s nowhe r ef u l ly a c h ie ve d , a nd i t i s pe r ha ps mos t f i r mly e s t a b l i she d in those f e wc oun t r i e s whe r e i t wa s a l r e a dy de e p ly r oo te d a nd v ib r a n t a ge ne r a t iona go . I n mos t o the r na t ions , de moc r a c y i s e nda nge r e d by po l i t i c a l a ndc r imina l v io l e nc e , c on f l i c t s be twe e n c iv i l i a n a nd mi l i t a r y a u tho r i t i e s ,p r o longe d e c onomic de c l ine , a nd g r os s soc i a l a nd e c onomic ine qua l i t i e s .D e m o c r a t ic in s t it u ti o n s in m u c h o f L a t in A m e r i c a r e m a i n w e a k - - p l a g u e dby r a mpa n t c o r r up t ion , po l i t i c a l po la r i z a t ion , a nd g r owing pub l i cske p t i c i sm a bou t gove r nme n t a nd po l i t i c s . I n some c oun t r i e s , de moc r a t i cforms a re s t i l l a f acade ; in o the rs , they a re preca r ious and vulne rable .

Journal of Democracy Vo l.2, No .3 Summ er 1991

8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

4/16

H a k i m L o w e n t h a l 17L a t i n A m e r i c a n d e m o c r a c y t o d a y n e e d s r e i n f o r c e m e n t , n o t p r e m a t u r ece lebra t ion .

T h e T r e n d T o w a r d emocracyLa t in A m e r ic a s de m oc r a t i c p r og r e s s i n t he 1980s wa s r e a l a nd

s ign i f i c a n t , a s e nc our a g ing in i t s wa y a s t he c o l l a pse o f c ommunis t r u l ein Ea s t e r n a nd C e n t r a l Eu r ope . I n c oun t r y a f t e r c oun t r y , mi l i t a r y r e g ime sa nd pe r sona l i s t d i c t a to r sh ips ga ve wa y to e l e c t e d c iv i l i a n gove r nme n t s .In the f ina l months of the decade , Braz i l he ld i t s f i r s t d i rec t p res ident ia le lec t ions s ince 1960 and Chi le i t s f i r s t s ince 1970- - - thus br inging c iv i l ianp r e s ide n t s t o o f f i c e in e ve r y c oun t r y o f S ou th Ame r ic a f o r t he f i r s t t imein a ge ne r a t ion . N ic a r a gua s e l e c t ions in F e b r ua r y 1990 we r e the m os tope n a nd c om pe t i t i ve in tha t c o un t r y s h i s to r y , a nd e l e c t e d c iv i l i a ngove r nme n t s a r e t oda y in p l a c e in e ve r y na t ion o f C e n t r a l Ame r i c a . A tthe be g inn ing o f 1991, F ide l C a s t r o s r e g ime in C u ba r e m a ins the on lyc onso l ida t e d a nd una mbiguous ly a u tho r i t a r i a n gove r nme n t s t i l l r u l ing inLa t in Ame r ic a .

Gove r nme n t o f f i c e , i f no t a lwa ys powe r , i s now usua l ly t r a ns f e r r e dp e a c e f u l l y f r o m o n e e l e c t e d p r e s i d e n t t o a n o t h e r t h r o u g h o u t L a t i nAme r ic a . I n r e c e n t ye a r s , i nc umbe n t a dmin i s t r a t ions ha ve y i e lde d o f f i c eto e l e c t e d oppone n t s i n c oun t r i e s a s d ive r se a s Ar ge n t ina , B o l iv i a , t heD o m i n i c a n R e p u b l i c , E c u a d o r , J a m a i c a , P e r u , a n d U r u g u a y - - i n s o m ec a se s f o r t he f i rs t t ime in me m or y . N o t s inc e 1928 ha d onede moc r a t i c a l ly e l e c t e d p r e s ide n t suc c e e de d a no the r i n Ar ge n t ina be f o r eC a r lo s Me ne m r e p la c e d R a d l A l f ons f n in 1989. I n the f a c e o f e c ono m iccr is is and te r ror i s t th rea ts , Pe ru has he ld three co nse cut iv e pres ide nt ia le l e c t ions f o r t he f i r s t t ime in ne a r ly a c e n tu r y . I n e c onomic a l lyt r a uma t i z e d B o l iv i a , f r e que n t mi l i t a r y c oups ha ve g ive n wa y to th r e esuccess ive e lec t ions .

Eve n in c oun t r i e s whe r e e l e c t ions ha ve r e ma ine d f l a we d , impor t a n tde m oc r a t i c ga in s ha ve be e n r e g i s t e re d . A l thoug h the ba l lo t ing wa s m a r r e dby c r e d ib l e c ha r ge s o f f r a ud , Me x ic o he ld i t s mos t c ompe t i t i vep r e s ide n t i a l c on te s t i n mor e tha n a ge ne r a t ion in 1988 , a nd popu la rp r e s su r e s a r e bu i ld ing f o r t he f u r the r ope n ing o f Me x ic a n po l i t i c s .De sp i t e s e ve r e r e s t r i c t ions on po l i t i c a l pa r t i c ipa t ion in mos t C e n t r a lAme r ic a n c oun t r i e s , e l e c t ions ha ve c ome to be a c c e p te d a s t he on lyl e g i t ima te r ou te to o f f i c e in t ha t r e g ion . The 1989 p r e s ide n t i a l vo te inP a r a gua y - - - c a l l e d a f t e r a mi l i t a ry c ou p e n de d A l f r e do S t r oe s sn e r s 35ye a r s o f d i c ta to r ia l r u l e - - w a s o r ga n iz e d too ha s t i l y t o be f a ir ly con te s t e d ;i t d id , howe ve r , a l l ow oppos i t i on pa r t i e s t o c a mpa ign , e xp r e s s d i s se n t ,a nd be g in m ob i l i z ing suppor t . B y nu l l i f y ing P a na m a s na t iona l e le c t ionsi n 1 9 8 9, G e n e r a l M a n u e l A n t o n i o N o r i e g a o n l y u n d e r s c o r e d th e m a s s i v epopu la r r e pud ia t ion o f h i s r e g ime . Af t e r s e ve r a l f a i l e d a t t e mp t s t o ho ldf r e e e l e c t ions in Ha i t i f o l lowing the downf a l l o f t he Duva l i e r dyna s ty , a n

8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

5/16

8 Journal of Democracyi n t emat iona l l y superv is ed p res iden t i a l vo t e f i na l l y t ook p l ace i n D ecem ber1990.

N o l o n g e r i s i t c o m m o n l y a c c e p t e d t h a t L a t i n A m e r i c a i s s o m e h o wpredisposed toward author i tar ian ru le , o r that i t s cu l ture i s inherent lyan t i democra t i c . Year by yea r , i t has become more ev iden t t ha t mos tL a t i n A m e r i c a n s e m b r a c e t h e f u n d a m e n t a l d e m o c r a t i c i d e a - - t h a tgovernmen t au tho r i t y mus t de r i ve f rom the uncoerced consen t o f t hemajo r i t y , t e s t ed r egu l a r l y t h rough compet i t i ve and b road ly pa r t i c i pa to rye l ec t i ons . I t i s s t r i k ing t ha t t he commi tmen t t o bu i l d ing democracy hasthus f a r even su rv ived p ro longed hyper in f l a t i on i n Argen t i na , Bo l i v i a ,B raz i l, and P eru ; dem ocra t ic i n s t it u ti ons in m an y Europea n n a t ions i n t he1920s and 1930s crumbled under s imi lar c i rcumstances .

I t was no t m an y yea r s ago t ha t s e l f -p roc l a imed mi l i t a ry gua rd i anson the r i gh t and revo lu t i onary van gua rds on the l e ft t h roughou t La t i nA m e r i c a o p e n l y e x p r es s e d t h e i r d is d a in f o r d e m o c r a t ic p r o c e d u r e s - - a n dcou ld c l a im some s ign i fi can t fo l lowing . In r ecen t yea r s , howe ver , a w idespec t rum o f La t i n Amer i can op in ion has come to r ecogn i ze t he va lue o fdemocracy: mi l i t ary off icers and former guerr i l l as as wel l as in te l l ec tual s ,corporate execut ives , smal l en t repreneurs , and re l ig ious l eaders . But evenas democra t i c i dea ls a re now wide ly embraced , t he p rac t ice o f demo cracyremains ve ry uneven ac ros s t he r eg ion .

Cos t a R i ca , Venezue l a , J amaica , and some o f t he smal l e r Car ibbeancoun t r i e s have en joyed un in t e r rup t ed democra t i c ru l e fo r more t han agenerat ion . Thei r pol i t i ca l and c iv ic ins t i tu t ions are re la t ively s t rong,human r ights are respected , and c iv i l i an au thor i t i es exerc i se f inn cont ro lover t he a rmed fo rces . The p rospec t s fo r sus t a in ing v igo rous democracym a y b e e v e n m o r e p r o m i s i n g i n C h i l e a n d U r u g u a y . A l t h o u g h t h e ysuffered years of mi l i t ary ru le in the 1970s an d 1980s and unset t l ingremnan t s f rom tha t pe r i od pe r s i s t , t he two coun t r i e s boas t l ongdemocrat ic t rad i t ions and so l id representa t ive ins t i tu t ions .

E l s e w h e r e i n t h e r e g i o n , h o w e v e r , d e m o c r a c y i s t r o u b l e d - - i n s o m ep laces , deep ly so . The t a sks o f r e i n fo rc ing and expand ing democracy i nthe Hemisphere mus t beg in wi th a sober app ra i s a l o f t he s everechal lenges i t faces .

o l i t i c a l V i o l e n c eIn fou r coun t r i e s - - -Co lombia , P e ru , Gua t emala , and E l

S a lvador - -governmen t s f ace i n su rgen t t h rea t s t o t he i r e f f ec t i ve con t ro lo f na t i ona l t e r r i t o ry . Each o f t hem conf ron t s a v i c ious cyc l e o f v io l enceand coun t e rv io l ence t ha t , t o va ry ing deg rees and i n d i f f e ren t ways , i sundermining the ins t i tu t ions , procedures , and values essent ia l todemocracy . As l ong as t he v io l ence con t i nues , democra t i c p rac t i ce wi l lr emain t runca t ed and p reca r i ous . The a rmed fo rces wi l l i n t rude i npol i t i ca l deci s ions , the au thor i ty of c iv i l i an leaders and ins t i tu t ions wi l l

8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

6/16

Hakim Lowenthal 19be c ompr omise d , e c onomic p r og r e s s w i l l be b loc ke d , po l i t i c s w i l l r e ma inpo la r i z e d , a nd huma n r igh t s a buse s w i l l pe r s i s t a t l e ve l s t ha t de s t r oyc onf ide nc e in t he de moc r a t i c p r oc e s s .

C o lombia c on t inue s t o su f f e r r e pe a t e d ou tb r e a ks o f i n t e nse i n su r ge n tv io l e nc e e v e n a s gue r r i ll a a c t iv i ty ove r a l l ha s de c l ine d in t he pa s t s e ve r a lye a r s . S us t aine d ne go t i a t ing e f f o r ts by su c c e s s ive C o lom bia n gov e r nm e n t sha ve l e d s e ve r a l gue r r i l l a g r oups to s top f igh t ing a nd e n t e r po l i t i c s . Twos ign i f i c a n t g r oups , howe ve r , c on t inue to do ba t t l e , a nd the gove r nme n tha s no t b e e n a b l e t o gua r a n te e t he s e c u r i t y o f t he f o r m e r gue r ri l la l e a de r swho ha ve be c ome a c t ive po l i t i c a l l y w i th in t he de moc r a t i c sy s t e m. Ne a r lya t housa nd o f t he m ha ve be e n mur de r e d in t he pa s t t h r e e ye a r s , i nc lud ingtwo p r e s ide n t ia l a sp i ra n t s a nd sc o r e s o f ma y or a l c a nd ida t es . T he i r de a th s ,a long w i th t he k idna pp ing o f ma ny p r omine n t c i t i z e ns a nd the ga ng la nd -s ty le k i l l ing of the lead ing candida te for pres ident in the 1990 e lec t ion ,r e f l e c t t he pe r va s ive in se c u r i t y t ha t be se t s C o lombia . B u t i n su r ge n tm o v e m e n t s a r e b y n o m e a n s t h e o n l y m e n a c e t o d e m o c r a t i c p o l i t i c s i nC o l o m b i a . A g r e a t e r d a n g e r m a y c o m e f r o m t h e r e l e n t l e s s v i o l e n c e o fc r imina l d r ug o r ga n iz a t ions a nd pa r a mi l i t a r y g r oups - - - o f t e n c ondone d o rto l e r a t e d by na t iona l s e c u r i t y f o r c e s - - th a t ope r a t e in c om ple x a nd sh i f t i nga l l i a nc e s w i th e a c h o the r a nd w i th t he r e ma in ing gue r r i l l a f i gh t e r s .

As de va s t a ti ng a s t he v io l e nc e ha s be e n , C o lom bia s po l i ti c a li n s t i t u t i ons c on t inue to de mons t r a t e r e s i l i e nc e a nd f l e x ib i l i t y . Thec ou n t r y s po l i t i ca l l e a de r s a nd m os t c i t iz e ns r e m a in c om m i t t e d tode m oc r a t i c r u l e , a nd the cons t i t u ti ona l r e f o r m p r oc e s s now und e r wa y m a ys t r e ng the n tha t c ommi tme n t . B u t de moc r a t i c po l i t i c s i s be ing se ve r e lyt e s t e d in C o lombia , a nd i t s su r v iva l c a nno t be gua r a n te e d .

E1 S a lva do r a nd Gua te ma la , i n c on t r a s t t o C o lombia , l a c k e s t a b l i she dde moc r a t i c i n s t i t u t i ons a nd t r a d i t i ons . Af t e r de c a de s o f a lmos tun in t e r r up te d mi l i t a r y r u l e , e l e c t e d c iv i l i a n gove r nme n t s c a me to o f f i c ein bo th na t ions i n t he mid - 1980s a mid p r o longe d gue r r i l l a i n su r ge nc ie s .S inc e the n , na t iona l a nd loc a l e l e c t ions ha ve be c ome some wha t mor ec ompe t i t i ve , a nd ha ve ga ine d a s ign i f i c a n t me a su r e o f i n t e r na t iona la pp r ova l . I n ne i the r c oun t r y , howe ve r , a r e a l l ma jo r po l i t i c a lc ons t i t ue nc i e s r e p r e se n te d a t t he po l l s , no r ha s de moc r a t i c p r a c t i c ee x te nde d muc h be yond pe r iod ic a nd r e s t r i c t e d e l e c t ions . C iv i l i a n l e a de r sha ve f a i l e d e i t he r to e s t a b l ish c on t r o l ov e r the a r m e d f o r c e s o r t o e nd thev io l e nc e tha t wr a c ks bo th soc i e t i e s .

Dur ing the pa s t de c a de o f c iv i l wa r i n E l S a lva do r , some 70 ,000p e r s o n s h a v e d i e d a n d h u n d r e d s o f t h o us a n d s h a v e b e e n d i s p l a ce d f r o mthe i r home s . B o th the gue r r i ll a s a nd s t a te s e c u r i t y f o r c e s ha ve b e e n g u i l t yo f a s sa s s ina t ions , r a ndom k i l l i ngs o f c i t i z e ns , a nd c r ue l v io l a t i ons o fba s i c huma n r igh t s . Ne i the r s ide i s now a b le t o p r e va i l by f o r c e o f a r ms .The in su r ge n t f o r c e s c on t r o l l a r ge e xpa nse s o f t e r r i t o r y , bu t ha ve l i t t l ep r o s p e c t o f m i l it a ry v i c t o r y . T h e a r m y c o m m a n d s s u f fi c ie n t f ir e p o w e r toc on ta in t he gue r r i l l a a dva nc e s , bu t no t t o f o r c e t he i r su r r e nde r .

8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

7/16

20 Journal of emocracyThe g r im p r ospe c t o f a de s t r uc t ive mi l i t a r y s t a l e ma te , c ombine d w i th

the t e mpe r ing o f i de o log ic a l pa s s ions bo th dome s t i c a l ly a ndin t e r na t iona l ly f o l lowing the e nd o f t he C o ld W a r , ma y f ina l ly bep r ope l l i ng E l S a lva do r t owa r d pe a c e . Af t e r a ye a r o f s low p r og r e s s , UN-me d ia t e d ne go t i a t i ons suppor t e d by bo th the Un i t e d S t a t e s a nd the S ov ie tU n i o n h a v e i n r e c e n t m o n t h s p r o d u c e d s o m e s i g n i f i c a n t a g r e e m e n t sbe twe e n the gue r r i l l a s a nd the gove r nme n t t ha t c ou ld we l l po in t t he wa ytowa r d a s e t t l e me n t . The obs t a c l es t o pe a c e a r e s ti ll f o r mida b le , how e ve r .I t i s by no me a ns c l e a r ye t whe the r t he i n t r a ns ige nc e o f ha r d l ine r s onb o t h s i d e s c a n b e o v e r c o m e a n d t h e n e c e s s a r y c o m p r o m i s e s a c h i e v e d .And e ve n i f a pe a c e s e t t l e me n t i s r e a c he d , t he l ong ye a r s o f f i gh t ing a r ebound to l e a ve be h ind a b i t t e r l e ga c y o f mi s t r u s t a nd d iv i s ion , ma k ingthe t a sk o f bu i ld ing s t a b l e de moc r a c y da un t ing .I n Gua te ma la , mor e tha n 35 ye a r s o f gue r r i l l a v io l e nc e a ndc oun te r in su r ge nc y ha ve c l a im e d the l i ves o f ove r 100 ,000 c iv il i ans , wh i l ema ny thousa nds o f o the r s ha ve be e n impr i sone d , t o r tu r e d , o r d i sp l a c e df r om the i r home s . B y 1986 , whe n the f i r s t c iv i l i a n p r e s ide n t i n age ne r a t ion c a me to o f f i c e , t he a r my c on t r o l l e d mos t o f t he c oun t r y s idea nd a ppe a r e d to ha v e r ou te d the gue r ri ll a s . B u t i n t he pa s t tw o ye a r s , t her e be l s ha ve r e g r oupe d the i r f o r c e s a nd r e s i s t e d e f f o r t s t o d i s lodge the mf r om the i r s t r ongho lds . I n r e c e n t mon ths t he gue r r i l l a s a nd theg o v e r n m e n t h a v e b e g u n u n p r e c e d e n t e d f a c e - t o - fa c e n eg o t ia t io n s , b u t apeace se t t lement s t i l l appears a long way of f , i f i t i s poss ib le a t a l l .

T h e i n s u r g e n cy i n G u a t e m a l a d o e s n o t c h a l le n g e g o v e r n m e n t a l c o n tr o l ,nor i s i t the cent ra l focus of na t iona l po l i t ic s . But i t has led to thepe r s i s t e n t i nvo lve me n t o f t he a r me d f o r c e s i n Gua te ma la n po l i t i c s a nd tothe i r c on t inue d r e p r e s s ive t a c t i c s i n r u r a l a r e a s . The wa r i s f ue l e d byb i t t e r e thn ic a nd c l a s s d iv i s ions , wh ic h in t he mse lve s a r e a ma jo robs t r uc t ion to de moc r a t i c p r og r e s s . E l e c to r a l po l i t i c s ha s me a n t l i t t l e f o rG u a t e m a l a s i m p o v e r i s h e d i n d ig e n o u s m a j o r i ty , w h i c h h a s l o n g b e e ndom ina te d by a n u r ba n m ino r i ty o f Eu r ope a n a nc e s t r y . The 1990-91e le c t ions , wh ic h we r e t a r n i she d by v io l e nc e a mong c ompe t ing po l i t i c a lpa r t i e s , p r omise no imme d ia t e c ha nge . A p r o f ound p r oc e s s o f na t iona lr e f o r m wi l l be ne c e s sa r y to e nd the v io l e nc e in Gua te ma la .

T h e S h i n in g P a t h a n d T u p a c A m a r u i n s u r g en c i es i n P e r u h a v e b e c o m ee n t r e nc he d a nd v i r u l e n t . W i th no a ppa r e n t e x t e r na l suppor t , t he S h in ingP a th ha s sp r e a d g r a dua l ly t h r ough muc h o f P e r u s inc e 1980 . I n t he pa s tf i ve ye a r s , i t ha s de mons t r a t e d a g r owing c a pa c i ty t o mob i l i z e r u r a l a ndu r ba n suppor t , d i s r up t t he c ou n t r y s e c o nom y , i n t imida t e l oc a lgove r nme n t o f f i c i a l s , a nd in f l i c t v io l e nc e on a l a r ge s c a l e . The Tupa cAma r u move me n t i s l e s s powe r f u l , bu t i t s t a r ge t e d v io l e nc e i s a l sose ve r e ly we a ke n ing the P e r uv ia n s ta te . Ne i the r g r oup ha s show n a nyinc l ina t ion so f a r t o e n t e r pe a c e ne go t i a t i ons w i th t he gove r nme n t .

S ome 20 ,000 de a ths i n P e r u du r ing the pa s t t e n ye a r s ha ve be e na t t r i bu t e d to t he gue r r i l l a g r oups a nd the mi l i t a r y f o r c e s ba t t l i ng the m,

8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

8/16

Hakim Lowenthal 21a nd the k i l l i ng i s e xpa nd ing . B o th s ide s e nga ge in pe r va s ive huma nr ig h t s a b u s es . M o r e t h a n h a l f o f P e r u ' s p o p u l a t i o n h a s b e e n p l a c e d u n d e ro n e f o r m o r a n o t h e r o f e m e r g e n c y m i l i t a r y r u l e . D e m o c r a t i c p r a c t i c e i smor e a nd mor e r e s t r i c t e d to P e r u ' s u r ba n c e n te r s , a nd e ve n the r e i t i sth rea tened .

The d r ug t r a de a dds t o t he v io l e nc e in P e r u a nd c ompl i c a t e sgove r nme n t e f f o r t s t o c on t r o l t he gue r r i l l a s . The S h in ing P a th f i na nc e si t s e l f pa r t l y by t a x ing d r ug t r a ff i c ke r s and p r o t e c t ing pe a sa n t c oc ag r owe r s . De sp i t e i n t e nse p r e s su r e f r om W a sh ing ton , suc c e s s ive P e r uv ia ngove mme n t s ha ve be e n r e luc t a n t t o e nga ge the a r my in t he f i gh t a ga ins tthe na r c o t i c s ne twor k be c a use the y a r e c onc e r ne d tha t i n t e ns i f y ing a ndmi l i t a r i z ing the a n t id r ug c a mpa ign w i l l p r oduc e ne w r e c r u i t s f o r t hein su r ge n t s a nd e xpa nd the i n f lue nc e o f t he a r me d f o r c e s . P r e s ide n tF u j imor i ha s r e c e n t ly a c c e p te d U .S . suppor t f o r suc h a mi l i t a r y e f f o r t ,bu t on ly a s a c ond i t i on f o r de spe r a t e ly ne e de d e c onomic a s s i s t a nc e .

Th e P e r uv ia n go ve r nm e n t i s s ti ll f r e e ly e l e c t e d , bu t i t ope r a t e s unde rr e s t r i c t i ve a nd r e p r e s s ive c ond i t i ons a nd w i th de c r e a s ing a u tho r i t y . P e r utoda y i s ba t t l i ng a ga ins t na t iona l d i s in t e g r a t ion a nd moun t ing de spa i r .

S tr on g r m ie s an d F r ag i le P o l i t ie sEve n whe r e i n su r ge n t s do no t t h r e a t e n , de moc r a t i c r u l e i s o f t e nc ha l l e nge d by a r m e d f o r c e s t ha t a re no t e f f e c t ive ly subo r d ina t e d to

c iv i l i a n c on t r o l . C iv i l - mi l i t a r y r e l a t i ons va r y c ons ide r a b ly f r om c oun t r yt o c o u n t r y i n L a t i n A m e r i c a , b u t t h e y r e m a i n t r o u b l e s o m e n e a r l ye ve r ywhe r e a nd a r e a sou r c e o f s e r ious t e ns ion in ma ny na t ions .C ons t i t u t i ona l de moc r a c y r e qu i r e s t ha t a l l mi l i t a r y f o r c e s be subo r d ina t eto t he e f f e c t ive p r o f e s s iona l a nd po l i t ic a l d i r e c t ion o f e l e c t e d c iv i l i a na u t h o r i t i e s . T o d a y o n l y a h a n d f u l o f L a t i n A m e r i c a n c o u n t r i e s - - C o s t aR i c a, M e x i c o , V e n e z u e l a , a nd t h e C o m m o n w e a l t h n a ti o n s o f t h eC a r ibbe a n f u l ly m e e t t ha t ba s i c c ond i t i on .I n G ua te m a la a nd E1 S a lva do r , t he m i l i ta r y v i r t ua l ly de f ine s t he e x t e n to f c iv i l i a n a u tho r i t y a nd in f lue nc e s mos t a spe c t s o f gove r nme n t po l i c y .The a r me d f o r c e s o f B o l iv i a , Ec ua dor , Hondur a s , N ic a r a gua , a nd P e r ur e t a in so muc h in s t i t u t i ona l a u tonomy that t he y a r e a t be s t c ond i t i ona l lysubor d ina t e t o c iv i l i a n o f f i ci a l s . P a n a m a ' s s e c u r i t y f o r c e s r e m a in a na c t ive t h r e a t t o de moc r a t i c r u l e , de sp i t e t he c a sh i e r ing o f mor e tha n 400se n io r o f f i c i a l s du r ing a ye a r - a nd - a - ha l f - l ong e f f o r t t o t u r n t he a r my in toa c iv i l i a n - r un po l i c e f o r c e . I n Ar ge n t ina , t he a r me d f o r c e s ha ver e pe a t e d ly c on f r on te d c iv i l i a n a u tho r i t i e s i n t he pa s t s e ve r a l ye a r s , w i thde b i l it a t ing e f f e c t s on de m oc r a t i c i n s t it u t ions . B r a z i l ha s a vo ide d suc hc o n f r o n t a t i o n s , b u t t o s o m e e x t e n t b y m a k i n g p r e e m p t i v e c o n c e s s i o n s t othe mi l i t a r y . I n Ha i t i , mi l i t a r y e l e me n t s ha ve ope r a t e d f o r ye a r s a s ar o g u e f o r ce . T h e a r m y ' s m o v e l a t e in 1 9 9 0 to p r e v e n t a c o u p b yDuva l i e r l oya l i s t s , c oup le d w i th t he ne w p r e s ide n t ' s d i smis sa l o f mos t

8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

9/16

22 Journal of emocracysen io r commanders , may po in t t he way t o a more r espons ib l e mi l i t a ry ,but hard ly one that i s securely under c iv i l i an d i rec t ion .

In Ch i l e and Uruguay , where c iv i l i ans had s eemed f i rmly i n con t ro lunt i l the armed coups of the ear ly 1970s , mi l i t ary reg imes have lef t al egacy o f un reso lved c iv i l -mi l i t a ry con f l i c t s , some o f t hem embedded i nlaw. C hi le s c iv i l gov ernm ent opera tes w i th in a ser ies of l egal res tra in t simposed by t he a rmed fo rces be fo re t hey l e f t power . F o rmer d i c t a to rAugus to P inoche t i s s t i l l commander o f t he a rmy and canno t l ega l l y berem oved by C h i l e s e l ec t ed p residen t. A l though t he c iv i l ian governm en t so f bo th Uruguay and Ch i l e a re g radua l l y and sk i l l fu l l y a s se r t i ng g rea t e rau tho r i t y over t he i r a rmed fo rces , the m i l i ta ry s i n f l uence on po l i cyremains s t rong i n bo th na t i ons .

Al though d i r ec t m i l i t a ry ru l e i s now excep t i ona l i n La t i n Amer i ca ,ex t ens ive m i l it a ry i n f luence underm ines t he au tho r i t y o f e l ec t ed c iv i li anleaders , and the deter ren ts to fur ther mi l i t ary in tervent ion are s t i l l weakthroughout the reg ion . Unt i l the armed forces are fu l ly subordinate toelected c iv i l i an au thor i ty , democracy wi l l remain a t r i sk . In some p laces ,a rmies ma y aga in s e i ze pow er i n the 1990s, bu t even where t hey do no t ,t hey wi l l r emain a s i gn i f i can t obs t ac l e t o democra t i c advance .

Pol i t i ca l v io lence and mi l i t ary incurs ions in to pol i t i cs are not the onlyobs t ac l es t o conso l i da t i ng La t i n Amer i can democracy . E f fec t i vedemocrat ic pract ice requi res s t ructured and dependable ins t i tu t ions ,accep t ed ru l es o f po l i t i ca l conduc t , and es t ab l i shed j ud i c i a l p rocedures .In thei r absence, pol i t i cs can become personal ized and er ra t i c .

Leg i s l a t u res and j ud i c i a l sys t ems i n much o f La t i n Amer i ca s t i l l l ackthe au tonom y, st a tu re , r e sou rces, and com petence nee ded t o ca r ry ou t a l lof thei r cons t i tu t ional funct ions fu l ly . Cour t s are overburdened and thei rproceedings , bo th cr iminal and c iv i l , a re rout inely delayed for years .Judges a re , fo r t he m os t pa r t, poo r ly t r a i ned and pa id , and t hey l ack t hefund ing t o conduc t i nves t i ga ti ons and adm in i s te r j u s t ice e f fec t ive ly . Inmany p l aces , j ud i c i a l dec i s i ons a re heav i l y i n f l uenced by po l i t i ca lcons idera t ions , in t imidat ion , or out r ight corrupt ion .

Legis la t ive sys tems face s imi lar problems. Pres idents , f rus t ra ted bydelay and indeci s ion , f requent ly resor t to except ional procedures tobypas s t he l eg i s l a t i ve p roces s . In do ing so , t hey debase t he fo rmalin s t i t u t i ons o f governmen t , compromise l ega l no rms , and undercu tdem ocrat ic l eg i t imacy . This i s especia l ly t roubl ing because there has beenev idence i n s evera l coun t r i e s - -Braz i l , Argen t i na , and Uruguay amongthe m -- th a t d emoc ra t ic i n s ti tu t ions g row s t ronger when t hey a re r e spec tedby a l l major pol i t i ca l ac tors .Except in a few nat ions , no tably Chi le and Uruguay, pol i t i ca l par t i esi n many coun t r i e s o f La t i n Amer i ca and t he Car ibbean have l ong l ackedeffect ive t i es to regular cons t i tuencies and are of ten l i t t l e more thanvehic les for contes t ing e lec t ions and d i s t r ibut ing pat ronage. They rare lyo f fe r coheren t p rog rams and a re f r equen t l y man ipu l a t ed t o s e rve t he

8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

10/16

H a k im Lo wen th a l 23persona l ambi t i ons o f t he i r l eader s . F o r example Ecuador , w i th i t s a r r ayof smal l par t i es of cons tant ly sh i f t ing loyal t i es , i s p lagued by thesep rob lems . S o i s the Do m in i can Repub l i c , where o ld - fash ioned c a u d i l l i s m oi s combined wi th po l i t i ca l oppor tun i sm. Democra t i c p rac t i ce under suchcondi t ions i s incomplete and cr i s i s -prone.

Where pol i t i ca l par t i es are weak, the media , par t i cu lar ly t e lev i s ion ,o f t en exer t a g rea t and immed ia t e i n f l uence on po l i t i ca l cho i ce , andsharp sw ings o f pub l ic op in ion a re com mo n . These f ac to r s con t r ibu t edto t he qu i ck r i s e f rom obscu r i t y t o p rominence and t he subsequen te l ec t i on o f i ndependen t p res iden t i a l cand ida t es wi thou t na t i ona l pa r t yaff i l i a t ion in Brazi l and Pe ru . In bo th count r ies i t has b een d i f f icu l t fort he new and i nexper i enced p res iden t s t o govern wi thou t t he o rgan i zedsuppor t needed to forge leg i s la t ive major i t i es and mobi l i ze popularbacking on pol icy i ssues .

D e m o c r a c y i n L a t i n A m e r i c a i s a l s o h a m p e r e d b y t h e l a c k o fsus ta ined c i t i zen par t i c ipat ion in pol i t i ca l l i fe . Al though the waning ofau tho r i t a r i an ru l e spa rked t he emergence and g rowth o f vo lun t a ryo rgan i za t i ons i n coun t ry a f t e r coun t ry , mos t na t i ons o f t he r eg ion s t i l ll ack a v igo rous a r ray o f nongovernmen ta l i n s t i t u t i ons t h rough wh ich t hedem ands o f o rd ina ry peop l e can be exp res sed , med i a t ed , and cons i s t en t lybrought to the a t t en t ion of au thor i t i es . In much of the reg ion , t radeunions , bus iness groups , profess ion al organizat ions , and c iv ic assoc ia t ionsremain weak and f r agmen ted , and a re t oo na r rowly based t o p l ayeffec t ive pol i t i ca l ro les . In ma ny cou nt r ies , the press represents o nly al im i t ed r ange o f op in ions , and does no t s e rve as an e f fec t i ve check oncor rup t i on o r t he abuse o f power .

Even in those nat ions wi th re la t ively s t rong pol i t i ca l and judic ia lins t i tu t ions , democrat ic governance i s threatened when c i t i zens s toppar t i c ipat ing act ively in pol i t i ca l l i fe because of d i s i l lus ionment , apathy ,o r a s ense t ha t t hey have been un fa i r l y exc luded o r d i s advan t aged .T h r o u g h o u t m u c h o f L a t i n A m e r ic a t o d a y t h e re i s a g r o w i n g d i st ru s t o fpol i t i cs . That voters in so many count r ies are cas t ing thei r bal lo t s forpol i t i ca l newcomers ref lec t s , in par t , the i r low regard for es tab l i sheddemocra t i c l eader s a s we l l a s t he i r f ru s t r a t i on wi th con t i nued economicand socia l deter iora t ion . Even more t roubl ing , abs ten t ion f rom elect ionsand skept ic i sm about thei r s igni f icance are sharp ly on the r i se . In somecoun t r i e s , g rowing emig ra t i on by p ro fes s iona l s , en t r ep reneurs , ands tudents i s another mani fes ta t ion of deep d i saf fect ion .

c o n o m i c C r i s i sEach o f t hese t h rea t s t o democra t i c governance i n La t i n

America--pol i t i ca l v io lence , mi l i t ary incurs ions in to pol i t i cs , f rag i lei n s t i t u t i ons , and a l i ena t ed c i t i zens - -has been g rea t l y exace rba t ed by t hereg ion s eco nom ic cri si s.

8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

11/16

24 Journal of emocracySince the debt c r i s i s s t ruck in 1982 , the reg ion has been mired in

de p r e s s ion , i t s de e pe s t a nd mos t p r o longe d e ve r . P e r c a p i t a i nc ome ha sf a l l e n by mor e t ha n 10 pe r c e n t f o r t he r e g ion a s a w ho le , a nd somec o u n t r i e s h a v e f a r e d m u c h w o r s e - - f o r e x a m p l e , i n P e r u , A r g e n t i n a , a n dN ic a r a gua , pe r c a p i t a i nc ome ha s p lunge d 25 pe r c e n t o r mor e . I n on lyt w o c o u n t r i e s , C h i l e a n d C o l o m b i a , h a v e l i v i n g s t a n d a r d s i m p r o v e d o v e rthe pa s t t e n ye a r s , t hough by ve r y sma l l a moun t s .

T h e c u m u l a t i v e e f f e c t s o f e i g h t y e a r s o f d e p r e s s i o n n o w p o s e s e v e r eo b s t a c l e s t o e c o n o m i c r e c o v e r y a n d r e n e w e d g r o w t h :

L a t in A me r i c a ' s de b t bu r de ns a r e e no r mous . I t s a gg r e ga t e de b ttoda y e xc e e ds $42 0 b i l l ion , $100 b i l l ion g r e a t e r tha n in 1982 . E a c hye a r , L a t in A me r i c a pa ys ou t a bou t $25 b i l l i on mor e i n i n t e r e s t a ndp r in c i p al t h a n i t o b t a in s i n n e w l oa n s. T h a t n e t o u t f l o w - - a m o u n t i n gto 3 pe r c e n t o f t he r e g ion ' s t o t a l ou tpu t a nd mor e t ha n 20 pe r c e n to f i ts e xpo r t s -- -- de p rive s L a t in A m e r i c a n c oun t r i e s o f t he r e sou r c e sne e de d f o r i nve s tme n t a nd c r uc i a l impor t s . I t a l so ke e ps budge tde f i c i t s h igh , f ue l s i n f l a t i on , a nd sa ps i nve s to r c on f ide nc e .R e c o r d l e v e l s o f i n f l a t i o n p l a g u e m a n y c o u n t r i e s . T h e a v e r a g ea nnua l r a t e o f i n f l a t i on e xc e e de d 1 , 000 pe r c e n t f o r L a t in A me r i c ain 1990 , more than 10 t imes h ighe r than in 1982 . Fourc o u n t r i e s - - B r a z i l , A r g e n t i n a , P e r u , a n d N i c a r a g u a - - h a v e b e e nba t t l i ng hype r in f l a t i on . O n ly Me x ic o , Cos t a R ic a , a nd Bo l iv i a ha vesubs t a n t i a l l y r e duc e d in f l a t i on f r om 1982 l e ve l s .E i g h t y e a r s o f l o w i n v e s t m e n t - - a v e r a g i n g s o m e 1 6 p e r c e n t o fG r o s s D o m e s t i c P r o d u c t ( G D P ) c o m p a r e d t o 2 2 p e r c e n t d u r i n g t h e1 9 7 0 s - - h a v e l e f t L a t i n A m e r i c a n i n d u s t r y w i t h d e t e r i o r a t i n gphys i c a l p l a n t s , ou tda t e d t e c hno log ie s , a nd a l a gg ing a b i l i t y t oc ompe te i n t e r na t iona l ly .

9 M o r e p e o p l e t h a n e v e r a re t ra p p e d in p o v e r ty . U n e m p l o y m e n t a n du n d e r e m p l o y m e n t a r e w i d e s p r e a d i n n e a r l y e v e r y c o u n t r y . W a g e sha ve de t e r io r a t e d ba d ly , by 50 pe r c e n t o r mor e i n some p l a c e s . T hequa l i t y o f hous ing , me d ic a l c a r e , a nd e duc a t ion ha s s t e a d i lyw or se ne d . Cr ime r a t e s ha ve su r ge d . L i f e ha s go t t e n muc h ha r de rin L a t in A me r i c a , a nd w ome n a nd c h i ld r e n a r e su f f e r ing the mos t .

9 A l l o f t he se e c onomic i l l s ha ve p r oduc e d a de va s t a t i ng lo s s o fc on f ide nc e . L a r ge num be r s o f pe op le f r om a ll c l a s ses a r e l e a v ingthe r e g ion . F e w c oun t r i e s a r e a b l e t o a t t r a c t f o r e ign inve s tme n t ,w h i l e dome s t i c c a p i t a l f l i gh t c on t inue s t o d r a in r e sou r c e s . I nc oun t r y a f t e r c oun t r y , e c onomic d i s t r e s s ha s e r ode d the c r e d ib i l i t yo f na t iona l l e a de r s a nd r e duc e d the i r c a pa c i ty t o gove r n .

8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

12/16

Hakim Lowenthal 25A u s t e r i t y h a s s e e m i n g l y b e c o m e a p e r m a n e n t f a c t o f l i f e i n m u c h o f

the r e g ion . I n on ly a f e w c ou n t r i e s a re t he r e so l id p r ospe c t s f o r su s t a ine de c o n o m i c i m p r o v e m e n t a n y t i m e s o o n . E c o n o m i c a d v e r s i t y i s t h r e a t e n i n gL a t i n A m e r i c a n d e m o c r a c y i n s e v e r a l w a y s .W or se n ing e c onomic c ond i t i ons he lp t o sus t a in t he S h in ing P a th a ndo the r i n su r ge ncie s . I n som e c oun t r i e s , e c on om ic sho c k t r e a tme n t s t oha l t r a mpa n t i n f l a t i on ha ve p r ovoke d ou tb r e a ks o f v io l e nc e . I nVe ne z ue la , mor e tha n 300 pe op le d i e d in r i o t s p r o t e s t i ng r i s e s i n t hep r i c e o f s t a p l e p r oduc t s . F ood r io t s i n Ar ge n t ina c on t r ibu t e d to P r e s ide n tA l f ons in ' s de c i s ion to t r a ns f e r powe r t o P r e s ide n t - e l e c t Me ne m s ixmon ths be f o r e t he e nd o f h i s c ons t i t u t i ona l t e r m. S oc ia l a nd e c onomicr e ve r sa l s we r e a ma in c a use o f T r in ida d ' s v io l e n t up r i s ing in Ju ly 1990 .O the r ou tbu r s t s ha ve oc c u r r e d in B r a z i l a nd the Domin ic a n R e pub l i c , a ndthe y c a n be e xpe c t e d e l s e whe r e . I n some p l a c e s whe r e l a r ge - sc a l e g r oupv io l e nc e ha s no t e r up te d , s t r e e t c r ime a nd a pe r va s ive s e nse o f pe r sona lin se c u r i t y ha ve be c ome wide sp r e a d , p r oduc ing de ma nds f o r o r de r t ha t a r esome t ime s pu r sue d a t t he e xpe nse o f l a w .

De moc r a t i c a l ly e l e c t e d l e a de r s who ha ve f a i l e d to s t e m e c onomicde c l ine ha ve lo s t suppor t a nd a u tho r i t y , t he r e by ma k ing i t ha r de r f o rthe m to i n s t i t u t e a nd sus t a in t he pa in f u l a d ju s tme n t s r e qu i r e d f o re c o n o m i c i m p r o v e m e n t . S t o p - a n d - g o p o l ic i es , i n t u m , f u rt h e r d a m a g ee c onomic pe r f o r ma nc e a nd in t e ns i f y po l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y . I n r e c e n t ye a r s ,i nc umbe n t pa r t i e s ha ve on ly ve r y r a r e ly be e n a b l e t o r e t a in o f f i c e f o rmor e tha n one t e r m. As one de moc r a t i c l e a de r a f t e r a no the r l o se ssuppor t , t he c r e d ib i l i t y o f de moc r a t i c r u l e i t s e l f i s e nda nge r e d .

P r o g r a m s o f m a r k e t - o r i e n t e d e c o n o m i c l i b e r a l i z a t i o n h a v e b e c o m epo l i t i c a l l y d iv i s ive . Eve n though suc h r e f o r ms ha ve be e n w ide ly a dop te dth r oughou t La t in Ame r i c a a nd the C a r ibbe a n , t he y c on t inue to f a c e s t i f fr e s i s t a n c e f r o m m a n y q u a r t e r s . E c o n o m i c r e f o r m p r o g r a m s i n s o m ec oun t r i e s ha ve f u r the r c onc e n t r a t e d inc ome a nd we a l th , a nd thus w ide ne dthe a l r e a dy l a r ge ga p be twe e n the r i c h a nd the poo r . S oc i a l c ohe s ion a ndpol i t ica l s tab i l i ty a re pu t a t r i sk as c la ss d iv is ions deepen .

I f m a r ke t s t r a te g i e s a r e una b le t o r e s to r e g r owth so on a nd to a dd r e s ssuc h f unda me n ta l p r ob le ms a s pove r ty a nd ine qu i ty , a dvoc a t e s o fa l t e r na t ive e c onomic a pp r oa c he s a r e l i ke ly t o ga in i nc r e a s ing e l e c to r a ls t r e ng th . P o l i t i c s t he n ma y be c ome mor e po la r i z e d , a nd c a l l s ma yin t e ns i f y f o r r e s t r i c t i ons t o b loc k oppone n t s o f c u r r e n t po l i c i e s f r omp o w e r . I n s o m e c o u n t r i e s , A r g e n t i n a a n d M e x i c o a m o n g t h e m ,g o v e r n m e n t s a l r e a d y s e e m t e m p t e d t o c i r c u m v e n t o r d i s t o r t d e m o c r a t i cp r oc e s se s i n o r de r t o ove r c om e oppo s i t i on to the i r e c onom ic po l ic i e s .

Req uis i te s for Dem ocrat ic onso l idat ionI t i s no t e a sy to ma ke de m oc r a c y wor k . P r e s ide n t s mus t be s t r ong

e n o u g h t o l e a d a n d c o m m a n d r e s p e c t , b u t t h e i r p o w e r c a n n o t b e

8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

13/16

26 Journal of emocracya bso lu t e . Le g i s l atu r e s mus t h a ve the a u tho r i t y t o c u r b e xe c u t ive powe r ,bu t t he y mus t a l so be r e a dy to c oope r a t e a nd a c c e p t r e a sona b lec o m p r o m i s e . C o u r ts m u s t b e i n d e p e n d e n t, b o u n d o n l y t o t h e r u le o f l a w .P o l i t i c a l pa r t i e s mus t be mor e tha n ve h ic l e s f o r p r o t e s t o r f o r w inn inge le c tions ; t he y m us t be a b l e t o r e p r e se n t t he i r suppor t e rs e f f e c t ive ly a ndf o r m ula t e p r og r a m a nd p o l i c y a l t e rna t ive s . I t is p r op e r f o r i n te r e s t g r oupsto s e r ve the i r spe c i a l c ons t i tue nc i e s , bu t t he y mu s t a l so r e spe c t the f i gh t sa nd in t e r e s ts o f o the rs . Le a d e r s a nd c i t i z e ns a l ike m us t be w i l l ing tol ive w i th unc e r t a in ty a nd to a c c e p t un f a vo r a b le po l i t i c a l ou t c ome s tha tr e su l t f r om de moc r a t i c p r oc e dur e s . De moc r a c y d r a ws i t s s t r e ng th f r oma po l i t i c a l l y a c t ive popu la c e a nd a mu l t i p l i c i t y o f r e p r e se n ta t ivein s t i t u t i ons ope r a t ing w i th in l e ga l a nd c ons t i t u t i ona l no r ms . On ly aha ndf u l o f La t in Ame r i c a n c oun t r i e s c a n ye t me e t t he se s t a nda r ds .W i t h f e w e x c e p t i o n s , t h e c o u n t r i e s o f L a t i n A m e r i c a h a v e a c h i e v e dthe f i r s t c r i t i c a l s t a ge in t he t r a ns i t i on to de moc r a c y . Th r oughou t t her e g ion , a u tho r i t a r i a n r e g ime s ha ve y i e lde d to e l e c t e d gove r nme n t s . B u te l e c t i o n s - - e v e n w h e r e t h e y a r e f u l l y f r e e a n d f a i r a n d a r e s c h e d u l e d o na r e g u l a r b a s i s - - a r e n o t e n o u g h b y t h e m s e l v e s t o p r o d u c e o r s u s t a i nde moc r a t i c r u l e . F e w na t ions ha ve ye t ma na ge d to de ve lop s t r ongr e p r e se n ta t ive i n s t i t u t i ons t ha t c a n ma in t a in t he r u l e o f l a w , p r o t e c t t hef igh t s o f a ll c i ti z e ns , e f f e c t ive ly r e spond to p opu la r de m a nds , a nd g iveo r d ina r y pe op le a c on t inu ing , a c t ive vo ic e i n pub l i c po l i c y de c i s ions .A l m o s t e v e r y w h e r e , p r o g r e ss t o w a r d m e e t i n g t h e s e a n d o t h e r v i ta lr e q u i r e m e n t s o f d e m o c r a c y h a s b e e n s l o w a n d p a i n f u l , a n d s o m ecount r ie s have , in f ac t , r egressed in recent yea r s .

F o r de moc r a t i c i n s t i t u t i ons t o t a ke f i r m r oo t a nd f lou r i sh i n La t inAme r i c a , f ou r d i f f i c u l t c ha l l e nge s mus t be me t .

F i r st , t he r e g io n s r e m a in ing in t e r na l wa r s m us t be e nde d . D e m oc r a t i cpol i t ic s cannot th r ive in se t t ings where c iv i l s t r i f e d iv ides soc ie t ie s ,e xpa nds the po l i t i c a l r o l e o f a r mie s , r e t a r ds e c onomic p r og r e s s , a ndp r oduc e s g r os s huma n r igh t s a buse s .S e c ond , t he a r me d f o r c e s mus t be m or e e f f e c t ive ly subo r d ina t e d to thepo l i t i c a l c on t r o l o f c iv i l i a n gove r nme n t s . I n ma ny na t ions t h i s w i l lr e qu i r e a p r o f ound r e th ink ing o f t he mi s s ion a nd pu r pose s o f t hemi l i ta ry .

Th i r d , ma ny c oun t r i e s o f t he r e g ion ha ve ye t t o c u r t a i l pe r va s ivev io l a t i ons o f huma n r igh t s . De moc r a t i c p r a c t i c e a nd the r u l e o f l a wc a nno t be c onso l ida t e d un le s s t he r i gh ts o f po l i t ic a l d i s s ide n ts , m ino r i ti e s ,a nd o the r vu lne r a b le g r oups a r e r e spe c t e d a nd p r o t e c t e d .

F ina l ly , on ly a ha nd f u l o f na t ions ha ve be e n a b l e t o r e s to r e e c onomics t a b i li t y a nd g r ow th a nd to c r e a t e oppor tun i t ie s f o r d i s a dva n ta ge d g r oups .De moc r a t i c i n s t i t u t i ons c a nno t t h r ive unde r c ond i t i ons o f p r o longe de c on om ic ha r dsh ip - -- whe n mi l l i ons o f c i t iz e ns mus t su r v ive w i thou t j obs ,a de qua te she l t e r a nd nu t r i t i on , ba s i c e duc a t ion , o r muc h hope f o r t hefu ture .

8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

14/16

Hakim Lowenthal 27Ea c h o f the se c ha l l e nge s i s da un t ing , e ve n f o r t hose na t ions wh e r e

d e m o c r a c y h a s b e g u n t o t a k e r o o t. T h e y a r e n o t im p o s s i b le t o o v e r c o m e ,howe ve r . Ac t ing ind iv idua l ly a nd in c onc e r t , t he r e i s muc h tha t t hec oun t r i e s o f t he Am e r i c a s c a n do to p r o t e c t , s t r eng the n , a nd e x t e nddemocra t ic po l i t ic s in the 1990s .n t e r n a l W a r s

Dir e c t ne go t i a t i on be twe e n the wa r r ing pa r t i e s i s t he be s t wa y to e ndL a t in A m e r i c a s o n g o i n g i n s ur g e n ci e s. N i c a r a g u a s d e c a d e - l o n g w a r w a sr e so lve d by a ne go t i a t e d s e t t l e me n t , a nd the gove r nme n t a nd gue r r i l l a snow a ppe a r c lo se t o a g r e e me n t i n E1 S a lva do r . Ne go t i a t i ng e f f o r t s i nC o lombia ha ve no t ye t s toppe d a l l gue r r i l l a v io l e nc e , bu t t he y ha ve l e dse ve r a l i n su r ge n t g r oups to l a y down the i r a r ms a nd be g in to c ompe tepol i t ica l ly .

A s e t t l e m e n t c a n o n l y b e a c h i e v e d , o f c o u r s e , w h e n b o t h s i d e s - - t h eg u e r r i l l a s a n d t h e g o v e r n m e n t f o r c e s - - a r e p r e p a r e d t o m a k e s i g n i f i c a n tc onc e s s ions f o r pe a c e . B u t ne go t i a t i ons ha ve a f a r g r e a t e r c ha nc e o fs u c c e e d i n g w h e n t h e y h a v e t h e s u s t a i n e d a n d u n a m b i g u o u s s u p p o r t o fma ny c oun t r i e s bo th w i th in a nd ou t s ide t he He misphe r e , i nc lud ing thee x t e rn a l b a c k e r s o f t h e c o m b a t a n ts . P e a c e m a k i n g e f f o r t s b y th e U N a n dt h e O r g a n iz a t io n o f A m e r i c a n S t at es c a n a l s o p l a y a v i ta l r o l e - - a s t h e ydid in Nica ragua and a re do ing in E1 Sa lvador .O n l y t h e i n s u r g e n c i e s i n P e r u n o w s e e m i m m u n e t o a n e g o t i a t e ds o l u t i o n . T h e P e r u v i a n g o v e r n m e n t s h o u l d k e e p o p e n t h e f u t u r eposs ib i l it y o f ne go t i a t ions , bu t t he im me d ia t e ne e d i s t o de s ign a ndimp le me n t a mor e e f f e c t ive s t r a t e gy f o r c omba t t i ng the gue r r i l l a s . S uc ha s t r a t e gy mus t i nc lude f a r g r e a t e r a t t e n t ion to r e me dy ing the e c onomicde p r iva t ion a nd soc i a l i n ju s t i c e t ha t a r e f ue l ing the v io l e nc e - - a nd th i s ,i n t u r n , w i l l r e qu i r e e x t e r na l f i na nc i a l a id , g ive n P e r u s de spe r a t esho r t a ge o f r e sou r c e s . I t i s a l so impe r a t ive t ha t t he a r me d f o r c e s s topthe i r ma ss ive a buse o f hum a n r igh t s , wh ic h a dds bo th to t he v io l e nc ea nd to t he a ppe a l o f t he gue r r i l l a s . De s t r oy ing de moc r a t i c va lue s i s now a y t o p r o t e c t d e m o c r a c y .Civil-Military RelationsThe r e i s no r e a dy - ma de f o r mu la t ha t c iv i l i a n a u tho r i t i e s c a n a dop t t oe s t a b l i sh c on t r o l ove r t he i r a r me d f o r c e s . Tha t t a sk w i l l r e ma in d i f f i c u l ta s l ong a s c iv i l i a n gove r nme n t s a r e we a k a nd imba la nc e s pe r s i s t be twe e nf rag i le po l i t ica l ins t i tu t ions and s t rong mi l i ta ry es tab l i shments . Las t ingchanges in c iv i l -mi l i ta ry re la t ions wi l l r equi re bas ic sh i f t s in the a t t i tudeso f La t in Am e r i c a n o f f i c e r s t ha t ma y w e l l ta ke a ge ne r a t ion o r l ong e r toachieve .

D e m o c r a t i c l e a d e r s m u s t m a i n t a i n o p e n c o m m u n i c a t i o n s w i t h t h ea r me d f o r c e s , pe r s i s t e n t ly s e e k ing to bu i ld m u tua l c on f ide n c e a nd tode f ine a n a pp r op r i a t e a nd a g r e e d - upon mis s ion f o r t he mi l i t a r y . The y

8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

15/16

8 Journal of Democracymus t a l so a t t ime s s t a nd up to mi l i t a r y o f f i c i a l s a nd r e j e c t t he i rin t rus ions in to pol i t ica l a f fa i r s . I t i s c ruc ia l , in tu rn , for c iv i l ianpo l i t i c i a ns t o r e s i s t t he t e mp ta t ion to c a l l on the a r me d f o r c e s t o me d ia t epo l i t i c a l c on f l i c t s , e ndo r se pa r t i s a n c a use s , o r p r omote pa r t i c u l a rc a nd ida t e s f o r o f f i c e .

Mi l i t a r y a s s i s t a nc e p r og r a ms f r om a b r oa d mus t be de s igne d tor e in f o r c e c iv i l i a n c on t r o l o f t he a r me d f o r c e s . C a r e mus t be t a ke n no t t oa gg r a va t e t he c u r r e n t imba la nc e s be twe e n c iv i l i a n a nd mi l i t a r yin s t i t u t i ons . T r a in ing p r og r a ms in mi l i t a r y s t r a t e gy a nd o the r de f e nsei s sue s , l i ke t hose o f f e r e d a t t he I n t e r - Ame r i c a n De f e nse C o l l e ge inW a sh ing ton , shou ld inc o r po r a t e ma ny mor e c iv i l i a n pa r t i c ipa n t s i n a ne f f o r t t o bu i ld c iv i l i a n c ompe te nc e in La t in Ame r i c a t o ma na ge na t iona lse c u r i t y po l i c y . I n a dd i t i on , t he Un i t e d S t a t e s a nd o the r na t ions shou ldmake sure tha t e f for t s to f igh t the na rco t ic s t r ade in p laces l ike Pe ru ,C o lombia , a nd B o l iv i a do no t e nme sh a r mie s i n po l i t i c a l t a sks a ndunde r c u t c iv i l i a n a u tho r i t y .

uman RightsAl l na t ions o f t he He misphe r e , i nd iv idua l ly a nd toge the r , c a n a nd mus twor k ha r de r t o s t r e ng the n sa f e gua r ds a ga ins t huma n r igh t s a buse s .S t r onge r i n t e r na l me a su r e s a r e u r ge n t ly ne e de d in ma ny c oun t r i e s , someof wh ic h c l e a r ly r e qu i r e , i n t he f i r s t i n s t a nc e , s t r onge r c iv i l i a n c on t r o love r mi l i t a r y a nd po l i c e f o r c e s . Na t iona l huma n r igh t s o f f i c e s , suc h a sthe one r e c e n t ly e s t a b l i she d in Me x ic o , c a n p l a y a n e f f e c t ive r o l e i ninve s tiga t ing , pub l i c iz ing , a nd re d r e s s ing v io l a t i ons bu t t he y mu s t beg r a n te d the a u tho r i t y , i nde pe nde nc e , a nd r e sou r c e s ne c e s sa r y to c a r r y ou tthe i r func t ions .

La t in Ame r i c a n a nd U .S . l e a de r s shou ld a l so t a ke a c t ion to b r oa de nthe ma n da te a nd e xpa n d the r e sou r c e s o f t he t h r ee o f f i c ia l i n t e r - Am e r i c a nins t i tu t ions re spons ib le for pro tec t ing human r igh ts ( i . e . , theI n t e r - Ame r i c a n C ommiss ion , C our t , a nd I n s t i t u t e ) , a l l o f wh ic h a r em a k i n g s i g n if ic a n t c on t ri b u ti o n s . T h e n e t w o r k o f n o n g o v e r n m e n t a lo r ga n iz a t ions tha t p r o f e s s iona l ly a nd ob je c t ive ly m on i to r hum a n r igh t sshou ld a l so be suppor t e d . De moc r a t i c gove r nme n t s shou ld no t p r ov idee c onomic o r mi l i t a r y a s s i s t a nc e to r e g ime s tha t sy s t e ma t i c a l ly v io l a t eba s i c huma n r igh t s .

W he r e ve r the r e i s the da n ge r t ha t na tiona l e l e c t ions w i l l be ma r r e d b yf r a ud , ma n ipu la t ion , o r v io l e nc e , t he i n t e r - Ame r i c a n c ommuni ty shou lds t a nd r e a dy to p r ov ide e l e c to r a l mon i to r s a nd o the r ne e de d a s s i s t a nc e .W he n suc h a s s i s t a nc e i s ma de a va i l a b l e on a mu l t i l a t e r a l ba s i s w i thr e spe c t f o r t he hos t n a t ion s sove r e ign ty a nd l a ws , i t c a n bu i ldc on f ide nc e in t he e l e c to r a l p r oc e s s a nd inc r e a se p r ospe c t s t ha t t heou tc ome wi l l be a c c e p te d a s f a i r by a l l pa r t i e s . I n 1990 a lone ,in t e r na t iona l ly mon i to r e d e l e c t ions i n N ic a r a gua , C h i l e , a nd Ha i t ic ons t i t u t e d de c i s ive s t e ps t owa r d po l i t i c a l ope n ing in t hose c oun t r i e s .

8/12/2019 2.3hakim.pdf

16/16

Hakim Lowenthal 29c o n o m i c r e c o v e r y

T h e r e s u m p t i o n o f e c o n o m i c g r o w t h , c o m b i n e d w i t h c o n c r e t e m e a s u r e st o a l l e v i a t e pove r t y a nd i ne qu i t y , w ou l d c on t r i bu t e m os t t o r e s t o r i ngc o n f i d e n c e i n d e m o c r a t i c r u l e i n L a t i n A m e r i c a . T h e t a s k o f e c o n o m i cr e c o v e r y is la r g e l y u p t o ea c h c o u n t r y - - a n d m o s t o f t h e r e g i o n ' sc oun t r i e s a r e s t r ugg l i ng t o r e s t r uc t u r e t he i r e c onom i e s a nd m a ke t he mm or e p r oduc t i ve . T he y a r e t a k i ng a c t i on t o c u r t a i l budge t de f i c i t s a ndb r i ng i n f l a t i on unde r c on t r o l , g i v i ng ne w e m pha s i s t o e x t e nd i ng t r a de a ndf o r e i gn i nve s t m e n t , a nd t u rn i ng t ow a r d m a r ke t s a nd p r i v a t e e n t e r p r is e .

T he c oun t r i e s o f L a t i n A m e r i c a , how e ve r , s t il l n e e d he l p f r o m ou t s i de .E x t e r n a l d e b t b u r d e n s c o n t i n u e t o f r u s t r a t e e c o n o m i c r e c o v e r y a n dg r ow t h i n a ll bu t a f e w c oun t r i e s o f t he r e g ion . T h e r e c e n t a g r e e m e n ta m ong t he U n i t e d S t a t e s a nd o t he r i ndus t r i a l c oun t r i e s t o s l a s h P o l a nd ' sd e b t w a s b a s e d o n t h a t c o u n t r y ' s e n o r m o u s n e e d s , i t s d e t e r m i n e d e f f o r t st o r e s t r u c t u r e i t s e c o n o m y a l o n g m a r k e t l i n e s , a n d i t s c o m m i t m e n t t ob u i l d i n g d e m o c r a c y . M o s t n a t i o n s o f L a t i n A m e r i c a m e e t a l l t h r e ec r i t e r i a a nd de s e r ve t he s a m e r e l i e f t ha t w a s e x t e nde d t o P o l a nd .

P e r h a p s e v e n m o r e t h a n d e b t r e l i e f , L a t i n A m e r i c a r e q u i r e s o p e nm a r ke t s f o r i t s p r oduc t s a nd a c c e s s t o i nve s t m e n t c a p i t a l . T he U n i t e dS t a t e s a nd o t he r i ndus t r i a l c oun t r i e s s hou l d r e doub l e t he i r e f f o r t s t oa c h i e v e a s u c ce s s fu l c o n c l u si o n t o th e U r u g u a y R o u n d o f G A T In e g o t i a t i o n s , a n d W a s h i n g t o n s h o u l d m o v e f o r w a r d w i t h i t s d e c l a r e di n t e n t i on t o s t r e ng t he n he m i s phe r i c t r a de l i nks . E ve n unde r t he be s t o fi n t e r na t i ona l c i r c um s t a nc e s , how e ve r , no L a t i n A m e r i c a n c oun t r y w i l l bea b l e t o r e c ove r i t s e c onom i c v i t a l i t y a nd a dd r e s s t he ne e ds o f i t s pe op l eun l e s s i t t a ke s t he ne c e s s a r y m e a s u r e s t o pu t i t s ow n hous e i n o r de r .

T he ha r d f a c t i s t ha t i t w i l l t a ke ye a r s o f s t r ugg l e t o s e c u r ede m oc r a t i c s t a b i li t y i n m os t c oun t r i e s o f L a t i n A m e r i c a . T he r e w i ll bes e tba c ks - -- - e ve n ou t r i gh t f a i l u r e s - - i n s om e p l a c e s. E ve n w he r e p r og r e s si s m a de , de m oc r a t i c i n s t i t u t i ons w i l l r e m a i n vu l ne r a b l e f o r de c a de s t oc o m e . T h e d e m o c r a t i c i d e a h a s b e e n g a i n i n g i m p o r t a n t g r o u n d i n t h eW e s t e r n H e m i s p h e r e , a s i n o t h e r r e g i o n s o f t h e w o r l d , b u t v i g o r o u s a n dc ons o l i da t e d de m oc r a t i c r u l e i s s t i l l t o be a c h i e ve d . T ha t i s t he c ha l l e ngeof the 1990s .

N O T E SThe authors gratefully acknowledge the helpful comm ents on earlier drafts of BruceBagley, Julio Cotler, Liliana De Riz, Samuel Fitch, Manuel Antonio Garret6n, J.A. GuilhonAlbuquerque, Fran ces Hagopian, Jonathan H artlyn, Bolivar Lam ounier, Sco tt Mainwaring,

Cyn thia McClintock, Ga briel M urillo, Kenneth Sharpe, and Francisco W effort.