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8/6/2019 22432 Foresight Review 2010 AW v5
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FORESIGHT ADVISES GOVERNMENT
ABOUT HOW TO ENSURETODAY’S DECISIONS ARE ROBUST TO AN
UNCERTAIN FUTURE.
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CONTENTSHighlights
About Foresight
Government Chief Scientific Advisor’s forewordHead of Foresight’s report
Completed workGlobal Food and Farming Futures
Technology and Innovation Futures
Current work
Global Environmental MigrationComputer Trading in Financial Markets
International Dimensions of Climate Change
Our impactGlobal Food and Farming Futures
Land Use Futures
Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment
Mental Capital and Wellbeing Tackling Obesities: Future Choices
Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases
Annexes
List of academics, other experts and organisations
involved with Foresight work
CONTENTS
4 / CONTENTS
>< CONTENTS
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FORESIGHT ANNUAL REVIEW 2010 / 5
HIGHLIGHTS
JANUARY 2010
•ForesightHorizonScanningCentreeventon
International FuturesatWiltonPark
•JointForesightandScienceInnovationNetwork
seminaronAgeing
•ForesightinAfrica
–FANClubmeeting‘AfricanFutures’
FEBRUARY 2010
•LaunchoftheForesightprojectonLand Use Futures
•Global Environmental Migration:
International Modelling workshopheldinLondon,
withseniorinternationaleconomistsandmodellers
•InfrastructureUK:Visionfor2050
–ForesightHorizonScanningCentreworkshop
•SeminaronhorizonscanningwiththeGerman
Institute for International and Security Affairs
(SWP),Berlin
MARCH 2010
•AfricanUnionannouncecreationoftheEastern
AfricanCentreforInfectiousDiseaseSurveillance(EACIDS)Kampala,Uganda
•JointForesightandCabinetOfceworkshop
forStrategyUnit’sStrategicChallenges
•SeminarwithShellonfuturesanalysis
APRIL 2010
•LaunchoftheonlineversionoftheStrategic
Futures Training bytheForesightHorizon
ScanningCentre
•Global Environmental Migration: Drivers of
Migration workshopheldinLondon,withthe
project’s‘driverreview’authors,andleadexperts
•PresentationtotheSmith Schoolaboutthe
ForesightProgramme,Oxford
MAY 2010
•VisionaryThinking–Land Use FuturesfeaturedinGeographicalmagazine
JUNE 2010
•ForesightHorizonScanningCentreworkshop
onFutureofDemographyintheUK
•ForesightattheCheltenhamScienceFestival
–paneldebateson‘ClimateChangeand
Population’and‘ACarnivore’sDilemma’
JULY 2010
•ForesightattheUK Science Journalists conference
•WorkshoponGlobal Food and Farming Futures with
Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA)
BurkinaFaso
HIGHLIGHTS
CONTENTS< >
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6 / ABOUT FORESIGHT
SEPTEMBER 2010•Feedingtheworldin2050–Driverreviews
fromGlobal Food and Farming Futurespublished
inPhilosophicalTransactionsoftheRoyalSociety
•NationalInfrastructurePlanscenarios
–ForesightHorizonScanningCentreworkshop
•PresentationtotheNew Synthesis Project onhow
countriescanprepareforthefuture,Singapore
OCTOBER 2010
•PresentationtotheBritish Ecological Society on
theForesightProgramme
•PresentationtotheKorea Institute for Science
and Technology Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
forum,Seoul
NOVEMBER 2010
•NewForesightprojectannounced
–Computer Trading in Financial Markets
sponsoredbyHerMajesty’sTreasury
•Technology and Innovation Futurespublished
bytheForesightHorizonScanningCentreproject
•ForesightandLiving with Environmental Change
workshoponTheLandUseDataChallengeand
ModellingtheLandUseSystem
•Feedingtheworld:top100questionsfor
policymakerspublishedforGlobal Food and
Farming Futures
•PresentationtotheHigh-Level Steering Group
for the Prioritisation of Publicly-Funded
Research,Ireland•EvidenceprovidedtoAll-Party Parliamentary
Group on Food, Agriculture and International
Development,London
DECEMBER 2010
•LaunchofthereportObesity Training for
Health Care Professionalspublishedbythe
RoyalCollegeofPhysicians
JANUARY 2011•LaunchoftheForesightprojectonGlobal Food
and Farming Futures
FEBRUARY 2011
•InternationalworkshopsfortheForesightproject
onGlobal Environmental Migration
•PresentationonGlobalFoodandFarmingFutures
attheAmerican Association for the
Advancement for Science
•DameClaraFurseappointedasChairtothe
LeadExpertGroupoftheForesightproject
onComputer Trading in Financial Markets
MARCH 2011
•AcademicworkshopfortheForesightproject
onComputer Trading in Financial Markets
•Howcansciencesupportfoodsecurity?–
Foresightworkshopat Joint Research Centre,
Brussels
•ForesightpresentationonGlobalFoodand
FarmingFuturestoBritish Chamber of Commerce,Brussels
•Jointworkshoponecosystemsserviceswiththe
Science Innovation Network ,Foreignand
CommonwealthOfce
APRIL 2011
•Howwillinternationalclimatechangeaffectthe
UK?–International Dimensions of Climate
Changenalworkshop
HIGHLIGHTS
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FORESIGHT ANNUAL REVIEW 2010 / 7
TheForesightProgrammeadvisesGovernmentand
othersabouthowtoensuretoday’sdecisionsare
robusttoanuncertainfuture.Wedothisbycombining
thelatestscientificandotherevidencewithfutures
analysistohelppolicymakerstacklecomplexissues.
Whilethefutureisuncertain,ourworkcanhelpto
identifypotentialopportunitiesandrisks.Foresight
bringstogetherdifferentGovernmentdepartments
tostimulateandinformthedevelopmentof
strategies,policiesandprioritiesthataremore
resilientandrobustacrossarangeofpossiblefutures.
ForesightisheadedbytheGovernmentChiefScientific
Adviser,ProfessorSirJohnBeddington,whoreports
directlytothePrimeMinisterandCabinet.ItisapartoftheGovernment Office for Sciencewithin
theDepartment for Business, Innovation & Skills.
MoreinformationaboutForesightandtheimpact
ithasmadeinGovernmentcanbefoundonthe
Foresightwebsiteatwww.bis.gov.uk/foresight
ABOUTFORESIGHTSince its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped Government
to think systematically about the future.
ABOUT FORESIGHT
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8 / ABOUT FORESIGHT
TheForesightProjectonGlobal Food and Farming
FuturespublishedinJanuary2011soughttoaddresswhatIconsiderisoneofthemostimportantglobal
challenges:howtofeedaglobalpopulationthatis
projectedtoriseto9billionormoreby2050.This
projectwasamajorendeavorinvolvingover400
leadingexpertsandstakeholdersfrom35countries,
includingkeyinternationalorganisationssuchasthe
UN’sHigh-LevelTaskForceonGlobalFood
SecurityandtheOECD.Sincepublicationthereport
hasbeenlaunchedincollaborationwiththeJoint
ResearchCentreoftheEuropeanCommissionto
theEuropeanpolicycommunity,andpresentedat
theUN’sFoodandAgriculturalOrganization.
Theprojecthasbenefitedconsiderablyfrom
engagementwithoursponsordepartmentsthrough
SecretaryofStatesCarolineSpelmanMPatthe
DepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs
andAndrewMitchellMPattheDepartmentfor
InternationalDevelopment.Thesestronglevelsof
engagementhavecontinuedacrossWhitehallsince
publicationasthereportinformsarangeofinitiatives.
GOVERNMENTCHIEF SCIENTIFICADVISER’SFOREWORD
FOREWORD
Professor Sir John Beddington CMG FRSGovernment Chief Scientific Adviserand Head of the Government Office
for Science
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FORESIGHT ANNUAL REVIEW 2010 / 9
Global Food and Farming Futures callsforurgent
actiontoredesignthefoodsystemtoaddresstheincreasingdemandsplaceduponit.Itarguesthatthe
globalfoodsystemmustbecomesustainable,whilst
adaptingtoclimatechangeandsubstantially
contributingtoclimatechangemitigation.
Furthermore,withalmostonebillionofthemost
vulnerablepeoplestillsufferingfromhungeranda
furtherbillionlackingsufficientmicronutrientsand
vitamins,thereisacompellingneedtoredouble
effortstoaddresshunger.
Overthepastyearwehavealsotackledtwoother
projectsonkeyareasofgovernmentpolicy.Global
Environmental Migrationisexaminingthepatterns
andimpactsofhumanmigrationoverthenext
50yearsandhowthesecouldchangedueto
climatechangeandotherenvironmentalfactors.
International Dimensions of Climate Changehas
identifiedtheriskandopportunitiesposedby
climatechangeimpactsoverseasfortheUKand
theevidencebasewillinformtheUK’sfirstClimate
ChangeRiskAssessment(asrequiredbylaw
throughthe2008ClimateChangeAct)toensure
thattheGovernment’spolicyonadaptationtoclimatechangetakesappropriateaccountof
internationalimpacts.Bothprojectsreportin2011.
Foresight’sroleintacklingdifficultbutcriticalissues
isfurtherexemplifiedinourlatestproject:
Computer Trading in Financial Markets.Sponsored
byMarkHobanMP,theFinancialSecretarytoHer
Majesty’sTreasury,thisprojectwillstudyhow
financialmarketsarebeingtransformedbyfast-
pacedtechnologicalprogress,andevaluatetherisks
andopportunitiesthatwillariseinthefuture.
Asever,mysincerethanksgoestothemany
hundredsofexpertsandstakeholders,bothinthe
UKandabroad,whohavecontributedtoForesight’s
growingimpact.
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10 / ABOUT FORESIGHT
LastyearwaspivotalforForesightwiththe
publicationofourmostambitiousreporttodate,
andthefirsttobecommissionedbySirJohn
Beddington.Global Food and Farming Futures
entailedextensivecollaborationwithinternationalresearchandpolicycommunities.Ithighlighted
Foresight’sroleintacklingcritical,complexissues,
andanalysedawealthofevidencebeforeconcluding
thattheglobalfoodsystemisfailingandthat
sustainabilityneedstobebroughtcentrestage.
Thereportdescribesfivebroadstrategiesthat
canhelpaddressthisglobalchallenge.Foresight
willbefollowingupthisreportwithitssponsor
departments,theDepartmentforEnvironment,
FoodandRuralAffairsandtheDepartmentfor
InternationalDevelopment,andawiderangeofnationalandinternationalorganisationstohelp
catalyseactionthroughout2011.
TheForesightHorizonScanningCentre’sreport
Technology and Innovation Futureswaswelcomed
bytheScienceMinisterDavidWilletsandoffersa
forwardlookatarangeofpotentialdevelopments
overthenext20yearstosupportsustained
economicgrowthintheUK.Itsmessageswere
reflectedintheNationalInfrastructurePlan
HEAD OFFORESIGHT’SREPORT
FORESIGHT REPORT
Professor Sandy ThomasHead of Foresight, Government Officefor Science
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FORESIGHT ANNUAL REVIEW 2010 / 11
developedbyInfrastructureUK;itiscurrently
informingtheDepartmentofEnergyandClimate
Change’sGreenDealandwillcontributetothe
recentlyannouncedResearchandInnovation
StrategyledbytheDepartmentforBusiness,InnovationandSkills.
OurprojectonGlobal Environmental Migration
heldfourinternationalworkshopsexaminingthe
implicationsofglobalenvironmentalchangeon
migrationpatternsindifferenteco-regions.By
involvinginternationalacademics,internationaland
regionalagencies,andlocalgovernment,these
eventsenabledtheprojecttodrawuponinnovative
ideasandlocalperspectivesforthefinalreport.
Theprojectwillreportinautumn2011.
ThenewForesightprojectonComputer in Financial
Marketshasmadesubstantialprogress.Announced
inthelatterhalfof2010,thisprojecthasassembled
adistinguishedleadexpertgroup,chairedbyDame
ClaraFurse,formerCEOoftheLondonStock
Exchange,toleadthetechnicalwork.Theproject
isalreadyengagingsubstantiallywithimportant
internationalpolicydevelopments.
International Dimensions of Climate Changeis
thefirstofanewshortertypeofForesightproject
whichhasexaminedhowclimatechangeimpacts
inotherpartsoftheworldcouldaffecttheUK.
CommissionedbyDefratoinformtheClimateChangeRiskassessment,ithasstimulatedinterest
acrossgovernmentinthesecurityimplicationsof
climatechange.
In2010,ForesightalsoworkedcloselywithLiving
WithEnvironmentalChangeandDefratoensure
thatitsLand Use Futuresreportinformedthe
recentlypublishedtheNaturalEnvironmentWhite
Paper,andtheNationalEcosystemsAssessment.
Also,Iampleasedtonotetheinfluencethatthe
Mental Capital and Wellbeingreport’semphasisonpositivewellbeingcontinuestohaveonimportant
aspectsofGovernment’sthinking,suchasthenew
cross-GovernmentmentalhealthstrategyNo health
without mental health.
Iamdeeplygratefultothemanypeoplewhohave
contributedtoForesight’sworkoverthepastyear.
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12 / COMPLETED WORK
Thereportemphasisesthatweareatauniquemomentinhistoryasdiversefactorssuchas
changesintheclimate;competitionforresources,
forexamplewatersupplyandenergy;andchanging
consumptionpatternsconvergeandprovide
considerablechallengestosustainingtheworld’s
foodsupply.Whilsttheglobalfoodsystemcurrently
deliversformany,itisfailingintwocriticalways;
consumingtheworld’snaturalresourcesatan
unsustainablerate;andfailingtheverypoorest,
withalmostonebillionoftheleastadvantagedand
mostvulnerablepeoplestillsufferingfromhunger
andmalnutrition.
Thereport,publishedinJanuary2011,arguesthat
urgentactionisneededtoredesignthefoodsystem
tofeedtheworld’sgrowingpopulation.
GLOBAL FOODAND FARMINGFUTURESThe Foresight project Global Food and Farming Futures explored how a future
global population of 9 billion people can all be fed healthily and sustainably.
COMPLETED WORK
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FORESIGHT ANNUAL REVIEW 2010 / 13
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14 / COMPLETED WORK
How we did the projectThetwoyearprojecthascommissionedover
80scientificreviews;involvedover400leadingexperts
andstakeholdersfrom35countries.Theproject
hasbeenguidedbyahighlevelsteeringgroupof
internationalexpertsfromtheUN,EU,WorldBank,
industryandcivilsociety;anddrawsonotherwell
regardedinternationalreports.Strategicdirection
fortheprojectwasprovidedbytheHigh-Level
StakeholderGroupwhichwasco-chairedby
Jim Paice MP,MinisterofStateforAgricultureand
Food,DepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs(Defra)andStephen O’Brien MP,
ParliamentaryUnderSecretaryofStateforInternational
Development,DepartmentforInternational
Development(Dfid).TheLeadExpertGroup,
chairedbyProfessorCharlesGodfray,Oxford
University,ensuredthattheprojectusedthebest
evidenceavailable.Theproject’sdiverseevidence
basewaspublishedinthreepeer-reviewedjournals
includingtheRoyal Society Philosophical
Transactions Bandthe Journal of AgriculturalScience.Awiderangeofsubjectsfromfoodpolicy
togenderissueswerecoveredintheproject.
Thepapersarealsoavailablefreeofchargeon
theForesightwebsite.
Project conclusions
TheForesightreportarguesthatthefoodsystemmust
becomesustainable,whilstadaptingtoclimatechange
andsubstantiallycontributingtoclimatechange
mitigation.Thereisalsoaneedtoredoubleeffortsto
addresshunger.Theprojecthasidentifiedandanalysed
thefollowingfivekeychallengesforthefuture:see
pageoppositeforasummary.
ForesightwillworkcloselywiththeDepartmentsfor
Environmental,FoodandRuralAffairsandInternational
Developmentandtheproject’sHigh-LevelStakeholder
Groupoverthenextyeartoensurethereport’s
findingsandevidencebaseinformfuturepolicies.
Visitthe‘our impact’sectiontoseewhatimmediate
influencetheForesightprojectGlobalFoodand
FarmingFutureshasalreadymade.
COMPLETED WORK
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FORESIGHT ANNUAL REVIEW 2010 / 15
1. Balancing future demand and supply
sustainably to ensure that food supplies
are affordable.Thefoodsystemiscurrentlyconsumingresources
fasterthantheyarebeingnaturallyreplenishedand
renewed.Itconsumes70%oftotalglobalwater
withdrawalsfromriversandaquifersanddirectly
contributes10-12%ofgreenhousegas(GHG)
emissions.Theglobalfoodsystemhastobe
redesignedtobringsustainabilitycentrestage.
Supplymustbeincreasedwithoutbringingin
substantiallynewlandforagriculture.Thereport
arguesthatmorefoodcanbedeliveredbyusing
existingknowledgeandinnovationbetterto
increaseproduction;moderatingdemand;managing
waste;improvinggovernance;andraisingthepolitical
profileoffood.
2. Ensuring that there is adequate stability
in food supplies and protecting the most
vulnerable from the volatility that does occur.
Whiletheamountofvolatilityremainsuncertain,
pricespikesinthefutureareinevitable.While
volatilityhasbeenloweroverthepast20years,
pricespikesin2007/8hadaprofoundimpact
increasinghungerandtherisksofpoliticalandsocial
instability.Althoughpredictingthefutureiscomplex,
thereareclearactionsthatcanbetakentomanage
volatility.Theyinclude:creatingreliablerules-based
liberalisedinternationaltrade;investigatingmodern
commoditytrading;cautiononcallsforaglobal
systemofgrainreserves;appropriateinsurancefor
poorfarmers;andtargetingfoodreservesandsafety
nets.Aspricesinearly2011exceedthehighof
2008,protectionofthemostvulnerablegroupsfromtheworsteffectsoffoodpricevolatilitymust
beprioritised.
3. Achieving global access to food and
ending hunger.
Thefoodsystemisfailingtoaddresshunger.Inaddition tothe925millionpeoplecurrentlyexperiencing
hunger,anotherbillionarethoughttosufferfrom
‘hiddenhunger’.Incontrast,abillionpeopleare
over-consuming.Effortstoendhungerinternationally
arealreadystalling,andwithoutdecisiveactionfood
pricescouldrisesubstantiallyoverthenext40years
makingthesituationworse.Astrongerconstituency
forhungerreductionneedstobebuilt.Thebenefits
ofagriculturetosupportwomenandsmall-holder
farming,andimprovenutritionandhealthmustbe
recognised.Effortsmustbefocusedonrebuilding
infrastructure;creatingbettermonitoringand
evaluation,forexample,usinghungermapstotarget
hungerhot-spots;andbuildinganti-hunger
momentumsohungerishardertoignore.
4. Managing the contribution of the food
system to the mitigation of climate change.
Agriculture’scontributionof10-12%ofGHG
emissionsrisesto30%ormorewhenland
conversionandcostsbeyondthefarmgateare
added.Addressingclimatechangeandachieving
sustainabilityintheglobalfoodsystemneedto
berecognisedasdualimperatives.Ambitious,and
insomecaseslegallybindingtargetsforreducing
emissionshavebeensetwhichcannotbeachieved
withoutthefoodsystemplayinganimportantpart.
Thereisaclearcaseforsubstantiallyintegratingand
improvingagricultureandfoodproductionin
negotiationsonglobalemissionsreductions.
5. Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystemservices while feeding the world.
Decisionstakennowwillaffectthediversityofplant
andanimalspeciesforfuturegenerations.Foodsupply
willneedtoincreasewithouttheuseofsubstantially
morelandandwithdiminishingimpactonthe
environment:sustainableintensificationisanecessity.
Thereportarguesthatpoliciesforfoodproduction
andmaintainingbiodiversityandecosystemservices
needtobedevelopedandproperlyconnectedat
bothglobalandnationallevels.
Top Five Challenges – Global Food And Farming Futures
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16 / COMPLETED WORK
•Waste must be minimised in all areas of the
food chain:Anamountoffoodequivalentto
aboutaquarteroftoday’sannualproduction
couldpotentiallybesavedby2050ifthecurrent
estimateofglobalfoodwasteishalved.
•Focus on sustainability:theapplicationofexisting
knowledgeandtechnologycouldincreaseaverage
yieldsbytwotothreefoldinmanypartsofAfrica,
andtwofoldintheRussianFederation.Similarly,
globalproductivityinaquaculturecould,withlimited
changestoinputs,beraisedbyaround40%.
• Improving governance of the global food system:
Itisimportanttoreducesubsidiesandtrade
barriersthatdisadvantagepoorcountries.The
project’seconomicmodellingshowshowtrade
restrictionscanamplifyshocksinthefoodsystem,
raisingpricesfurther.
•Knowledge is power:Investmentinnewscience
andtechnologytoraisethelimitsofsustainable
productionandaddressnewthreatswillbe
essential.Noonetechnologyortypeofresearch
willbeasilverbulletforaddressingsustainable
production.Wewillneedtoincreaseour
understandingofanimalstoimproveyieldswhile
stillincreasingwater,nutrientandotherefciencies.
Also,wewillneedtoprioritiseresearchonclimatechangeadaptationandmitigationinthefood
system,forexample,producingcropsthatare
droughtandoodresistant.
COMPLETED WORK
Key messages from the report
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FORESIGHT ANNUAL REVIEW 2010 / 17
Media CoverageTheprojectGlobalFoodandFarmingFuturesheld
apressbriefingforscience,environmentandfarming
correspondentsattheScienceMediaCentreand
anotherforinternationalcorrespondentsbasedin
LondonthroughtheForeignandCommonwealth
OfficeonMonday24January2011.Thereport
receivedextensiveprintandbroadcastcoverage
inboththenationalandinternationalpress.Afulllist
ofmediaimpactcanbefoundontheForesightwebsite
butaselectionofmediacoveragecanbefoundbelow:
Welcome for report on food securityThe Scotsman
‘No easy solution’ to global hungerThe Today Programme
Global food stocks face crisis,
says chief scientistBBC Breakfast
Global food system must betransformed ‘on industrialrevolution scale’The Guardian
Era of low-cost food is over,study warnsThe Financial Times
Food prices to rocket by 50% asglobal hunger epidemic causesriots and faminesDaily Mail
People ‘should be discouragedfrom eating meat’The Times
GM crops ‘could feed the world’Press Association
Experts warn of spikes in globalfood pricesToronto Star
Groundbreaking food securityreport calls for urgent actionMalaysia Sun
Scientists and Ministers call fornew agricultural revolutionFarmer’s Guardian
Linking policy on climate and foodScience Magazine
Farming needs ‘sustainableintensication’ says reportSciDev Net
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18 / COMPLETED WORK
Comments on the report
“We need a global, integrated approach to food security, one that looksbeyond the food system to the inseparable goals of reducing poverty,tackling climate change and reducing biodiversity loss – and the UKGovernment is determined to show the international leadership neededto make that happen. We can unlock an agricultural revolution in thedeveloping world, which would benefit the poorest the most, simply
by improving access to knowledge and technology, creating betteraccess to markets and investing in infrastructure. To fuel this revolution,we must open up global markets, boost global trade and make reformsthat help the poorest. Trade restrictions must be avoided, especiallyat times of scarcity. And we must manage price volatility by buildingtrust and cooperation – and in particular by creating greater transparencyaround the true levels of food stocks.”
Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman
COMPLETED WORK
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FORESIGHT ANNUAL REVIEW 2010 / 19
“With one seventh of the world’s population still hungry, this reportis a clarion call to arms. The food price crisis in 2008 increased thenumber of people suffering from hunger by 150 million. Today reportsof increasing food prices once again fill the news – and it’s clear fromthis new study that price volatility is only set to increase in the futuremaking further food price spikes inevitable. Internationally, those with
the least spend the largest proportion of their income on food, so foodprice shocks hit the poorest hardest and can have long term impactson their health. Britain is already working to tackle malnutrition,improve agriculture, and get new research into the hands of the poorestpeople. Steps taken now and pushed through over the next few decadesto stabilise global markets, reduce volatility and prioritise agriculturewill have a disproportionate effect on ensuring food security fora predicted nine billion people by 2050.”
International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell
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20 / COMPLETED WORK
Technology and Innovation Futuresisaforward
lookatarangeofdevelopmentswhichhavethepotentialoverthenext20yearstosupport
sustainedeconomicgrowthintheUK.AstheUK
comesoutoftheeconomicdownturn,itseemslikely
thatfutureeconomicprosperitywillderiveinlarge
partfromseizingopportunitiesofferedby
technologiessuchasthese.
PublishedinNovember2010,thereportconcludes
thattherearestrongopportunitiesforgrowthinthe
UKeconomythroughthe2020sifbusinessescan
harnessscientificandindustrialcapabilitiestotakeadvantageoftechnologydevelopments.Itidentifies
threepotentialareasofgrowthwhichcouldbe
transformative:manufacturing,infrastructureandthe
internet.Otherareashighlightedbythereportare
theenergytransitionwhichtheUKwillundergo
duringthenext10-20years,theUK’sR&Defforts
innewmaterialswhichcouldhelprealisethemove
toalowcarboneconomy,thepotentialofthe
marketforregenerativemedicineandthe
increasingimportanceofintellectualproperty,all
ofwhichofferopportunitiesforUKcompanies.
TheevidenceusedintheTechnologyand
InnovationFuturesprojectwasgatheredbydeskwork,andinterviewswith25leadingfigures
fromresearchandbusiness,andfiveworkshops
involving150academics,industrialists,andexperts
fromtheprivatesectorandGovernment.The
workshopsusedfuturestechniquestoprovokeand
structurediscussions.
ThereportwaswelcomedbyMinisterfor
UniversitiesandScience,DavidWilletswhosaid:
“Thistimelyreportlooksathowwecanbenefitfrom thegrowthopportunitiesofthenext20yearsin
manufacturing,health,communicationsandenergy.
Itcallsformoreactivecooperationbetweenlarge
companies,smallandmediumenterprisesand
researcherstoplanambitiousstrategiesforthebenefit
oftheirsectors.Developmentsinthisareawillhelp
strengthenoureconomyandenableustoleadthe
wayforinnovation.”
TECHNOLOGYAND INNOVATIONFUTURESTechnological developments have the ability to transform our economy.
COMPLETED WORK
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FORESIGHT ANNUAL REVIEW 2010 / 21
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22 / CURRENT WORK
TheForesightprojectonGlobal EnvironmentalMigration wascommissionedbySirJohnBeddington
inOctober2009,andwillbepublishedinautumn2011.
Theprojectwillconsiderglobalmigrationwhichoccurs
inthecontextoffutureenvironmentalchange,with
afocusonthosewhomoveandthosewhostay
behind,andthepolicyimplicationsforallinvolved.
Itwillexplore:
•Globalpatternsofmigrationandhowtheymaybeaffectedbyenvironmentalchangeoverthe
next50years;
•Thechallengesandopportunitiesthatcouldresult
fromchangingmigrationpatterns;and
•Howthesemaybeaddressed,usingthemost
up-to-datescienceandknowledgeinarangeof
areasofwhichoverlapwithenvironmentalchange
andmigrationpolicy.
Partoftheresearchcommissionedbytheproject
focusesonthedriversofmigration,includingsocial,
political,environmental,economicanddemographic
factors,andtheimpactofenvironmentalchangeuponthese.Thesecommissionedpieceswillbe
publishedinaspecialeditionofthejournalGlobal
Environmental Changeintheautumn.
Theprojectheldfourinternationalworkshopsin
Dhaka(Bangladesh),Istanbul(Turkey),Kathmandu
(Nepal)andJohannesburg(SouthAfrica)todeepen
itsanalysisandunderstanding.Thelocationsreflect
theproject’skey‘eco-regions’,areasofsignificant
humanhabitationwhichareacutelyvulnerableto
environmentalchange,includinglowelevation
coastalzonesandsmallislandstates,drylandsand
mountainousregions.TheMediterraneanisalso
afocusasitcontainselementsofallthreeregions.
Theworkshopsbroughttogetherexpertsfrom
acrosstheglobetoconsiderthefutureofglobal
environmentalmigration.Workshopattendees
focusedspecificallyonfuturechallengesand
opportunitiespresentedwithineachregion,
andidentifiedbothgeneralandregion-specificpolicyoptions.
GLOBALENVIRONMENTALMIGRATIONForesight’s latest project will examine how environmental change could affect
human migration around the world, out to 2060.
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Throughstructureddiscussionandworkshopquestions,theattendeesofeachworkshoptested
theproject’semergingfindingsandconceptual
frameworks.Theworkshopreportswillcontribute
directlytotheproject,toensurethefinalForesight
reportisrelevanttointernationalpolicymakers
withinthefourregions.
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Foresight’smostrecentprojectwillexaminethe
challengesandopportunitiespresentedbytechnological
advancesinfinancialmarketsworldwide.Inrecent
yearsthewaysinwhichfinancialmarketsoperate
havebeentransformedbyfast-pacedtechnological
progress.Forexample,thevolumeoffinancialproducts
tradedthroughcomputerautomatedtrading,taking
placeathighspeedandwithlittlehuman
involvement,hasincreasedsubstantiallyinthepast
fewyears.Today,overone-thirdoftheUK’sequity
tradingvolumeisgeneratedthroughhighfrequency
automatedcomputertradingwhileintheUSthis
figureisclosertothree-quarters.
ThisForesightprojectComputerTradingin
FinancialMarkets,issponsoredbyHer Majesty’s
TreasuryandledbytheGovernment’sChief
ScientificAdviser,ProfessorSirJohnBeddington,
andaimstomakeasignificantcontributiontothe
efficiency,integrityandresilienceoffinancialmarkets,byidentifyingoptionsforpolicymakersintheUK
andinternationally.
Itwillexplorehowcomputergeneratedtradingin
financialmarketsmightevolveoverthenextdecade
ormore,andhowthiswillaffect:
•Financialstability;
•Integrityofnancialmarkets,includingprice
informationandliquidity;
•Competition;
•Marketefciencyinallocatingcapital;
•Transactioncostsonaccesstonance;and
•Futureroleandlocationofcapitalmarkets.
Itwillalsoassesspolicyoptionsandconsiderhowthe
opportunitiesofferedbyadvancementsincomputer
technologiescouldbecapitaliseduponbythe
financialsector.
Theprojectisduetopublishinautumn2012.
COMPUTERTRADING INFINANCIALMARKETSFinancial markets have been transformed by fast-paced technological progress.
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Theprojectcombinesthebestfeaturesfrom
thelargecross-cuttingForesightstudiesandthe
shorterprojectsfromtheForesightHorizon
ScanningCentre.
TheClimateChangeActrequiresGovernment
toundertakeaClimateChangeRiskAssessment
fortheUK,thefirstofwhichwillbelaidinParliamentbyJanuary2012.TheClimateChangeRiskAssessment
istheprimaryevidencesourcethatwillinformthe
nationaladaptationpolicyprogramme,whichthe
ClimateChangeActrequirestheDepartment
forEnvironmentFoodandRuralAffairs(Defra)to
create.Thisproject,co-fundedbyDefraandthe
DepartmentforEnergyandClimateChange(Decc),
willenhancetheevidencebaseoftheClimate
ChangeRiskAssessmenttoensurethatthe
Government’spolicyonadaptationtakes
appropriateaccountofinternationalimpacts.
Theprojectwillreportinsummer2011.Abroad
rangeofimpactsthatclimatechangecouldhaveon
theUK,includingpossibleopportunitiesandthreats
havebeenidentified.Theseincludeimplicationsfor
diplomacyandforeignpolicy,security,resourcesand
commodities,financeandtrade,humanhealthand
socialvalues.
INTERNATIONALDIMENSIONSOF CLIMATECHANGEThis Foresight project aims to improve our understanding of how climate
change impacts in other parts of the world could affect the UK.
CURRENT WORK
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GLOBAL FOODAND FARMINGFUTURESForesight has a dedicated team that works across government to catalyse
action and to help departments and other stakeholders to take up the findings
of our reports.
OUR IMPACT
TheForesightprojectonGlobal Food and Farming
Futureshasattractedtheimmediateattentionof
multipleUKandinternationalstakeholders,andhas
alreadybeguntomakeanimpactontheinternational
policyandresearchcommunity.TheUKGovernment
planstoworkcloselywithForesightandtheproject’s
leadexpertstofacilitatethereport’simpactonseveral
areasofpolicydevelopment;forexample,intrade
reformandmarkets,sustainableintensification,
biodiversity,andendinghunger.Awiderangeofinternationalstakeholderscommentedonthereport
atthetimeofpublication.Forexample,theUN
High-Level Task Force on Global Food Security
welcomedthereportandanticipatedthattheUN
organisationswoulddrawonitsevidenceand
analysesastheypursuethepolicyoptionsoutlined
intheirUpdatedComprehensiveFrameworkfor
Action.TheOECDcommentedthatthefindings
willassistinthedevelopmentoftheOECD’sGreen
GrowthStrategyforFoodandAgricultureandthe
OECDAgricultureKnowledgeSystemsConferenceinJune2011.
Shortlyafterpublicationofthereport,Foresightheld
aspecialpaneleventattheAmerican Association for
the Advancement of Science (AAAS)annualmeeting
inWashingtonD.C.ProfessorSirJohnBeddington
andProfessorCharlesGodfray,chairoftheLead
ExpertGroup,wereinvitedtospeakaboutthereport
inasessiontitled‘Howcantheworldfeed9billion
peopleby2050sustainablyandequitably?’
ForesightsharedsomeoftheemergingfindingswithAfricanstakeholdersatthe5thAfricanAgriculture
ScienceWeekinBurkinaFasoin2010.Foresightis
nowworkingwiththeAfrican Unionandthe
Comprehensive African Agriculture Development
Programme (CAADP)toexplorehowthereport
mightinformandsupportthedeliveryoftheAfrican
UnionandCAADPpriorities.Forexample,thisstrand
aimstodeepenunderstandingofthefactorsimpacting
Africaandinformdecisionsandinfluencepolicyon
economicandsocialdevelopmentandregionaland
internationaltradeatarangeofgeo-politicallevels.
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LAND USEFUTURES
TheForesightprojectonLand Use Futures,
publishedinFebruary2010,arguesforstrategic
objectivestoguidefuturelandusechangeasthe
UK’slandsystemcomesundernewpressuresinthe
decadesahead.Sincepublication,Foresighthas
workedwithGovernmentdepartmentsandother
stakeholderstoexplorehowtheevidencebaselaid
outinthereportmightbeusedtoinformpolicyand
strategicthinking.Forexample,Defrahasusedthe
reportindevelopingtheconsultationexercisefor
theNatural Environment White Paperandin
takingforwardthe National Ecosystem Assessment,
whichisthefirstanalysisoftheUK’snatural
environmentintermsofthebenefitsitprovidesto
societyandfutureeconomicprosperity.
Howlandisusedprovidesawiderangeofbenefits
toabroadsectionoftheUKpopulation.Italsohas
thepropensitytoimposecosts,suchaspollutionorcongestion,onanequallywiderangeofpeople.
Costsandbenefitsregularlyextendbeyondthe
immediateusersofland,butpricesforlandindifferent
usesdonotfullyreflectthis.Defra’sNatural Value
Programmeaimstointegratethevalueofthenatural
environmentanduseofanecosystemsapproachin
Defra,otherGovernmentDepartments,atalocal
level,andinbusinessandtheForesightreport
providestheevidencefortheprogramme.
ThefindingsfromtheForesightprojectsonLandUse
FuturesandGlobalFoodandFarmingFuturesare
reflectedinNatural England’s Corporate Plan
2011-2015.Theplansetsoutitsnewapproachto
safeguardingthenaturalenvironment,anapproach
whichfocusesonreconnectingpeoplewithnature;
onprotectingnaturalassetsandonthe
opportunitiesofferedbythegreenereconomy.
LandUseFutureshighlightsanimportantchallenge:
theneedforaccessible,high-qualitydatatoinform
policyandresearch.Meetingthis‘datachallenge’will
beanessentialstepinmakingprogressinsustainable
futurelanduseandhasstruckachordwithawide
rangeofstakeholders.Manyorganisations,inparticular
thepartnershipLiving With Environmental Change
(LWEC),shareacommoninterestinthedata
challengeandalsoinreviewingitspivotalrolein
supportingthedevelopmentofanintegratedlandusemodel.ForesighthasworkedwithLWECand
otherorganisationstoexplorehowbestto
respondtotheneedforaccessible,high-qualitydata
fromwhichtobuildtheevidencebasetoinform
policyandresearch,particularly,thedemandand
supplyoflandusedata,andtoexplorewaysto
developandimproveit.
OUR IMPACT
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SUSTAINABLEENERGYMANAGEMENTAND THE BUILTENVIRONMENT
Theone-yearreviewoftheSustainable Energy
Management and Built Environmentreport,
publishedin2010highlightshowtheprojecthas
informedtheactionsGovernmenthastakenin
meetingtheClimateChangeAct’stargetof80%
decarbonisationby2050.Thereportwasalso
usedtoinformthedevelopmentoflocalscale
initiativesinbuildingandretrofittingtechnologies
andenergysystemswhichwillprovideimportantcontributionstomakingthebuiltenvironment
moresustainable.
Forexample,theTechnology Strategy Board’s
BuildingPerformanceEvaluationprogramme,
whichaddressesenergyefficiencyofexistingand
newbuildinthecommercialanddomestic
environments,drawsontheForesightprojectand
complementsandsupportstheDepartment for
Energy and Climate Change’s (DECC)priorities
suchasthedevelopmentoftheNationalEnergy
EfficiencyDatabase.
TheForesightreportprovedtobevaluablein
movingtheDECC’sworkforwardindeveloping
policyproposalsfordistributedenergysolutions.It
hadparticularinfluenceonthreecriticalpiecesof
workin2009:theHeatandEnergySavingsStrategy,
theLowCarbonCommunityChallenge,andthe
LowCarbonTransitionPlan.
TheleadauthorsofthereportPowering our LivesareworkingtogetheronanEngineering and
Physical Sciences Research Councilfundedproject:
‘Challenginglock-inthroughurbanenergysystems’
(CLUES)whichistakingforwardsomeofthisreport’s
findings.TheCLUESprojectwillassessthe
contributionofdecentralisedurbansystemsin
achievingnationaldecarbonisationgoalsanddeepen
ourunderstandingofhowthebarriersanddriversof
urbanenergyinitiativeshaveimplicationsforenergy
systemsatdifferentscales.Theprojectwillmake
useofthe2050scenariosdevelopedbythe
Foresightstudytohelpunderstandthepotential
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varietyinfuturepathwaystosustainabilityinthe
faceofkeyuncertainties.
TheForesightreporthasbeenusedtopromotethe
exchangeofinternationalperspectivesandknowledge.
Forexample,theUCLEnvironmentInstituteco-hosted
asymposiumwithForesightandtheForeignand
CommonwealthOfficeforleadingUKandUSexperts.
Thisevent‘Sustainable Energy Management andthe Built Environment’ Foresight Report: Sharing
Anglo-American Best Practicefocusedonenergy
incitiesandtestedtheapplicabilityoftheForesight
scenariosinaUScontext.Itallowedexpertsfrom
academia,industryandgovernmenttoshareinsights
onthethemesfromthereportandstimulated
discussiononaninternationalresearchagendaon
energyandcities,andnewnetworksofcollaboration.
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MENTAL CAPITALAND WELLBEING
In2010,Foresightpublishedtheone-yearreview
ofimpactofitsMental Capital and Wellbeingreport
whichsetoutwherethereporthasplayedasignificant
partinhelpingshapeseveralkeygovernmentpolicies
whichreflectthegrowingrecognitionandimportance
ofpositivementalhealthandwellbeing.
TheUKGovernment’sMental Health Strategy,
publishedinFebruary2010,reflectssomeofthekey
conclusionsfromtheForesightreport,inparticular
thecallforanintegrated,cross-governmentstrategy
todelivermentalhealthandwellbeing.Also,bylinking
departmentalresponses,governmentinvestmentcan
bebetterdirectedandmoreeffectivelyco-ordinated
indeliveringthe‘lifecourseapproach’toMentalCapital
andWellbeingassetoutinthestudy.Theadoption
oftheForesightreport’sFive ways to wellbeingsets
outavaluableandaccessiblestrategybywhich
individualscanplayanimportantpartindeveloping theirownmentalwellbeing.
TheMentalCapitalandWellbeingprojecthasreceived
internationalexposure.InJanuary2010theForesight
ProgrammeandtheForeign and Commonwealth
Office’s Science and Innovation Network hosted
aworkshopentitled‘Unlockingandutilisingthe
mentalcapitaloftheageingpopulation:international
perspectivesandopportunities’.Theeventbrought
togetherover20ofEurope’skeypolicymakersand
academicstodiscussthefindingsofthereportand
toreviewthescientificevidencebaseonmental
capitalandtheageingpopulation,tosharebest
practice,toexplorethebarrierstoprogress,andto
identifythesynergiesandopportunitiesforfuture
Europeancollaboration.
TheChineseGovernment’sMinistryofEducation
hasshowninterestintheMentalCapitaland
Wellbeingreport.Sincepublicationin2009,ithas
organisedagrouptostudyhowtoapplyittothenationaleducationstrategyupto2020.Also,anew
researchinitiative(c£1.5million)fundedbythe
ChineseGovernment,involvingChineseandUK
academicswillexplorechildren’slearningdifficulties
andrelatingtosocialwithdrawalbehaviour.
OUR IMPACT
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TACKLINGOBESITIES
In2010,ForesightpartneredwiththeRoyal College
of Physicians(RCP)toproduceareporttoguide
healthprofessionalsontreatingobesity.Thereport
‘Training of health professionals for the prevention
and treatment of overweight and obesity’ highlights
thecorecompetenciesthatwillgiveprofessionals
theknowledgeandskillstheyneedtocontribute
toeffectivestrategiesforpreventionandtreatment
ofobesity.
TheForesightreportonTackling Obesities,
publishedin2007,acknowledgestheimportance
ofanycomprehensivelong-termstrategyaddressing
bothpreventionandtreatment.TheRCPreport
complementsexistingevidencetoemphasisethat
infuture,everyhealthprofessionalwillneedtobe
trainedtoidentifypeopleatriskfromincreasing
bodyweight,andbeskilledatmanagingobesity.
Thedramaticincreaseintheprevalenceofoverweight
andobesityintheUKinthelast20yearshasnot
beenmatchedbyasimilarexpansionofeducation
andtraininginhowtocareforobesepatients.
Atpresentthereislimitedinformationprovidedin
bothunder-andpost-graduatetraining,andvery
littlefocusonweightmanagementinspecialistmedical
training.Consequently,manyhealthprofessionals
eitherdonotrealisethemedicalconsequencesof
obesityorlackconfidenceandtheabilitytohelp.
TheRCPreport,whichisendorsedbytheRoyal
CollegeofGeneralPractitioners,theRoyalCollege
ofNursingandtheRoyalCollegeofPaediatricsand
ChildHealth,emphasisestheimportanceofeducating
healthprofessionalsandlistsindetailtheknowledge
andskillsneededtobeabletodiagnose,manage
andtreatoverweightandobesepeople.
OUR IMPACT
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DETECTION ANDIDENTIFICATIONOF INFECTIOUSDISEASES
TheForesightProgrammesupportedthe
developmentoftheAfrican Union Science andTechnology Framework for the Detection,
Identification and Monitoring of Infectious Diseases
in Africa,whichwasbasedonthefindingsofthe
Foresightstudypublishedin2006.Theframework
willlinkscientistsandinstitutionsinvolvedwiththe
surveillanceandresearchoninfectiousdiseasesof
humans,animalsandplants.Specifically,Foresight
co-hostedaworkshopinKampala,Ugandawith
AfricanstakeholdersfromUganda,Rwanda,Burundi,
Kenya,Sudan,EthiopiaandtheAfricanUniontoexplorethecreationoftheEastern Africa Centre
for Infectious Disease Surveillance.Thisbuildson
theexperienceoftheSouthern African Centre for
Infectious Disease Surveillancedevelopedonthe
principlesinlinewiththevisionsetoutinthe
ForesightreportInfectious Diseases: Preparing
for the Future – Africa.
OUR IMPACT
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40 / ANNEXES
ANNEXESMany academics, other experts and policy makers contribute to Foresight’s work.
Foresight projects involve leading experts from a wide range of scientific and
other disciplines to ensure that our work is of the highest technical standard,
and relevant to policy. A High-Level Stakeholder Group (HLSG) of relevant
organisations in the public sector, research community and business adviseForesight on the strategic direction of projects, and the actions that should
result from the work. Membership of the Lead Expert Groups and HLSG are
published in this section.
ANNEXES
Advisory Board for Foresight
TheAdvisoryBoardforForesightadvisesthe
GovernmentChiefScientificAdviserontheoverall
strategicdirectionoftheForesightProgramme.
Itsmembersin2010were:
•Sir William Castell LVO,Chairmanofthe
WellcomeTrust.PreviouslyPresidentandCEO
ofGeneralElectricHealthcareandVice-Chairman
oftheGeneralElectricCompany(GE).•Professor Brian Collins,ChiefScienticAdviser
attheDepartmentforTransportandProfessor
ofInformationSystemsatCraneldUniversity.
•Clive Cookson,ScienceEditoroftheFinancial
Timessince1991,withacareerinjournalism
coveringscience,technologyandpharmaceuticals.
•Professor Ian Diamond,ChiefExecutiveofthe
EconomicandSocialResearchCouncil(ESRC)
andChairmanoftheExecutiveGroupofResearch
CouncilsUK,thestrategicpartnershipoftheUK’ssevenResearchCouncils.
•Professor David Hendry,ProfessorofEconomics
andaFellowofNufeldCollegeOxford.
•Dr Mike Howse OBE FREng,TechnicalAdviser
toRolls-Royceplc,andpreviouslyDirector,
EngineeringandTechnologyatRolls-Royceplc.
MemberoftheDefenceScienticAdvisoryCouncil.
VisitingProfessoratCraneldUniversity.
•Professor Sally Macintyre,DirectorofMedical
ResearchCouncil’sSocialandPublicHealth
SciencesUnit,Glasgow,andamemberofthe WorkingPartyoftheNufeldCouncilonthe
ethicsofpublichealth.
•Professor Robert Watson,ChiefScienticAdviser
attheDepartmentforEnvironment,Foodand
RuralAffairs(Defra)andchairofEnvironmental
ScienceandScienceDirectoroftheTyndallCentre
attheUniversityofEastAnglia.FormerChief
ScientistattheWorldBankandChairofthe
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.
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High-Level Stakeholder Group forGlobal Food and Farming Futures
•Chair–JimPaiceMP,
MinisterofStateforAgricultureandFood,
DepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs
•Chair–StephenO’BrienMP,
ParliamentaryUnder-SecretaryofState
forInternationalDevelopment,
DepartmentforInternationalDevelopment
•ProfessorSirJohnBeddington,GovernmentChiefScienticAdviser,
GovernmentOfceforScience
•DrPedroArcuri,
Coordinator,EMBRAPALabexEuropeEmpresa
BrasileiradePesquisaAgropecuária
•DrTariqBanuri,
Director,DivisionforSustainableDevelopment,UN
•DrJohnBarrett,
DeputyDirector,PolicyandResearchDivision,
DFID
•JohnBensted-Smith,
Director,Directorate-GeneralforAgriculture,
EuropeanCommission
•SamBickersteth,
Headofprogrammepolicyteam,Oxfam
•Prof.JoachimvonBraun,
DirectorGeneral,InternationalFoodPolicy
ResearchInstitute(IFPRI)
•EckhardDeutscher,
representedbyStephenGroff,Deputy-Director,
DevelopmentCo-operationDirectorateOECD
•DrNinaFedoroff,
SpecialAdvisoronScienceandTechnology
totheUSDepartmentofState
•IainFergusonCBE,
ChiefExecutive,Tate&LylePLC
•AnneGuttridge,
SupplyChainManager,GrainandOilseeds,Europe,Cargill
•BrianHarding,Director,FoodandFarmingGroup,DEFRA
•PatrickHolden,
Director,SoilAssociation
•MichaelJacobs,
SeniorPolicyAdvisertothePrimeMinister
•Prof.DougKell,
ChiefExecutive,BBSRCandRCUK
•PeterKendall,
President,NFU•LaurieLee,
Director,AgriculturalDevelopment,
GlobalDevelopmentProgram,
BillandMelindaGatesFoundation
•DrWillMartin,
ActingResearchManager,
DevelopmentResearchGroup,Trade,WorldBank
•DrJeffMcNeely,
ChiefScientist,InternationalUnion
forConservationofNature(IUCN)
•ProfessorRichardMkandawire,
HeadoftheComprehensiveAfricanAgriculture
DevelopmentProgramme,NewPartnership
forAfrica’sDevelopment(NEPAD)
•AlexanderMueller,
AssistantDirector,GeneralSustainable
DevelopmentDepartment,FoodandAgricultural
Organisation(FAO)
•DrNamangaNgongi,Director,CommitteeonAgriculture
andRuralDevelopment(AGRA)
•NancyRoman,
HeadofPublicPolicyandCommunications,
WorldFoodProgramme
•ProfessorAndrewRosenberg,
Director,OceanProcessAnalysisLaboratory,
UniversityofNewHampshire
•DrHarshaVardhanaSingh,DeputyDirector-General,WorldTrade
Organisation(WTO)
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ANNEXES
•AchimSteiner,ExecutiveDirector,
UnitedNationsEnvironmentalProgramme(UNEP)
•AjayVashee,
President,InternationalFederation
ofAgriculturalProducers
•JanKeesVis,
DirectorSustainableAgriculture,Unilever
•RossWarburton,
President,FoodandDrinkFederation
Lead Expert Group for Global Foodand Farming Futures
•Chair–ProfessorCharlesGodfrayFRS,
HopeProfessor,OxfordUniversity
•ProfessorLawrenceHaddad,
DirectoroftheInstituteofDevelopmentStudies,
UniversityofSussex
•ProfessorIanCrute,
DirectorofRothamstedResearch
•ProfessorJulesPretty,
Environment&Society,UniversityofEssex
•DrDavidLawrence,
HeadofResearchandDevelopment,Syngenta
•DrCamillaToulmin,
DirectorofInternationalInstituteforEnvironment
andDevelopment
•ProfessorShermanRobinson,
UniversityofSussex
High-Level Stakeholder Group forGlobal Environmental Migration
•Chair–ProfessorSirJohnBeddington,
GovernmentChiefScienticAdviser,
GovernmentOfceforScience
•AdrianAlsop,
DirectorofResearchandInternationalStrategy,
EconomicandSocialResearchCouncil(ESRC)
•AndyBearpark,Trustee,CareInternationalUK
•PaulBoyle,
ChiefExecutive,EconomicandSocialResearch
Council(ESRC)
•HeikeBuss,
DeputyHeadofUnitInternationalAffairs,
EuropeanCommission
•DiarmidCampbell-Lendrum,
EnvironmentalEpidemiologist,WorldHealth
Organisation(WHO)
•DavidClary,
ChiefScienticAdviser,
ForeignandCommonwealthOfce(FCO)
•KrisEbi,
ExecutiveDirector,IntergovernmentalPanel
onClimateChange(IPCC)
•RichardEdwards,
AlternateExecutiveDirector,
AsianDevelopmentBank
•JohnElliott,
DirectorofSocialScienceandChiefEconomist,
HomeOfce
•ChrisField,
Co-ChairWorkingGroup,Intergovernmental
PanelonClimateChange(IPCC)
•JulienFrey,
ThematicOfcerMigration-Asylum,
EuropeanCommission•PauldeGuchteneire,
Chief,InternationalMigrationandMulticultural
PoliciesSection,UnitedNationsEducational,
ScienticandCulturalOrganization(UNESCO)
•MadeleenHelmer,
Director,PoliciesandCommunication,RedCross
•FrankLaczko,
ChiefofResearchandPublications,
InternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM)
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•MehariMaru,ProgramHead,AfricanConictPreventionProgram
•RobinMearns,
LeadSocialDevelopmentSpecialist,WorldBank
•MarcRichir,
Directorate-GeneralExternalRelations,
EuropeanCommission
•DanOsborn,
ActingHeadofKnowledgeExchange,
NaturalEnvironmentResearchCouncil(NERC)
•MarkRobinson,
HeadofProfessionforGovernment&Conict
DepartmentforInternationalDevelopment(DFID)
•AurelieSgro,
InternationalAffairs,EuropeanCommission
•AgataSobiech,
DirectorateGeneralforJustice,Freedomand
Security–ImmigrationandAsylumUnit,
EuropeanCommission
•BernardSilverman,
ChiefScienticAdviser,HomeOfce
•BarrieStevens,
DeputyDirector,AdvisoryUnit,Organisationfor
EconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)
•GoranSvilanovic,
Co-ordinatorofOSCEEconomicand
EnvironmentalActivities,OrganizationforSecurity
&Co-operationinEurope
•VeerleVandeweerd,Director–Environment&Energy,UnitedNations
DevelopmentProgramme(UNDP)
•MargaretaWahlstrom,
CommissiononClimateChangeandDevelopment,
SwedishGovernment
•AndrewWatkinson,
Director,LivingwithEnvironmentalChange
•ProfessorRobertWatson,
ChiefScienticAdviser,DepartmentfortheEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs(DEFRA)
•DavidWarrilow,HeadofClimateScienceandInternationalEvidence,
DepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange(DECC)
•StevenWilson,
InterimChiefExecutive,NaturalEnvironment
ResearchCouncil(NERC)
•AlanWinters,
ChiefEconomist,DepartmentforInternational
Development(DFID)
Lead Expert Group for GlobalEnvironmental Migration
•Chair–ProfessorRichardBlack,
HeadoftheSchoolofGlobalStudiesatthe
UniversityofSussex
•ProfessorNeilAdger,
EnvironmentalEconomics,Schoolof
EnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofEastAnglia
andProgrammeLeaderatTyndallCentrefor
ClimateChangeResearch•ProfessorNigelArnell,
Director,WalkerInstituteforClimateSystem
Research,UniversityofReading
•ProfessorStefanDercon,
DevelopmentalEconomics,OxfordUniversity
•ProfessorDavidThomas,
HeadofSchoolofGeographyandtheEnvironment,
OxfordUniversityandDeputyLeaderTyndall
CentreforClimateChangeResearch
•ProfessorAndrewGeddes,
DepartmentofPolitics,ShefeldUniversity
Lead Expert Group for ComputerTrading in Financial Markets
•Chair–DameClaraFurseDBE,
formerCEOofLondonStockExchangeand
anon-executiveDirectorofLegal&GeneralPlc,
AmadeusITHoldingSA,NomuraHoldingsInc
•ProfessorPhilipBond,
OxfordCentreforIndustrialand
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44 / ANNEXES
ANNEXES
AppliedMathematics•ProfessorDaveCliff,
ProfessorofComputerScience,
UniversityofBristol
•ProfessorCharlesGoodhart,
ProfessorofFinance,LondonSchoolofEconomics
•AndyHaldane,
ExecutiveDirectorFinancialStability,BankofEngland
•KevinHoustoun,
Chairman,RapidAddition;co-Chair,GlobalTechnicalCommittee,FIXProtocolLimited
•ProfessorOliverLinton,
ProfessorofEconometrics,
LondonSchoolofEconomics
•DrJean-PierreZigrand,
ReaderinFinance,LondonSchoolofEconomics
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FORESIGHT ANNUAL REVIEW 2010 / 45
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