Summaryr analysis

In te rnat io na l contex t: U n e m p lo y m e n t rate lowI in. t h e US a n d e c o n o m i c d ifcu lt i n Editorial in the B R IC S in 0 3 2015

The third estimate revised dow n to 2.1% the US annual G D P grow th rate in Q 3 21315 after2.2% in Q 2 but conrm ed the quarterly G D P grow th rate at 13.5% in Q3, declin ing from1.0% in Q 2 2015. In Decem ber 2015. the Federal Reserve (the Fed) decided to raise interestrate for the rst tim e in seven years. The Fed justied this policy shift w ith the considerableprogress made by the econom y in restoring and raising incom es.

Regard ing the E R IC S countries (Brazil, Russia, 1nd ia,Ch inaand South Atrica},the econom ym arg ina lly decelerated in China w ith an annual G D P grow th rate at 15.9% in Q 3 2015,511ght1ydeclin ing from 710% in Q2. Nevertheless. quarterly G D P grow th rate rem ained constant at1.8% in Q 3 2015 com pared to Q2. The Ch ine sesto ck market plunged again in January 2016.after the substantial falls in Iu ly-A ug ust 2015.

The econom y accelerated in Ind ia w ith a G D P grow th rate of 1.9% in Q 3 2015 com ing after1.7% in Q2. The annual G D P grow th rate nevertheless declined to 7.1% in Q3. from 7.3% inQ 2 2015. Since Q 2 2015. the econom y hasg ro w n faster in Ind ia than in China. The econom yexpanded in South Africa w ith a G D P grow th rate of 13.2% in Q 3 21315, after a contractionofI3.3% in Q2. The a n n u a lG D P grow th rate declined to 1.2% in Q 3 21315 from 1.15% in Q2.

Braz il and Russia are facing major econom ic difculties. In Braz il.quarterly G D P contractedby 1.2% in Q 3 21315 after an earlier contraction of 2.1% in Q 2. The annual G D P growth.rate declined to 1.4% in Q 3 2015 after -2.9% in Q2. Russia has not yet released its G D Pgrow th rate o n 3 2D 15. But in Q 2 21315 the econom y contracted by 2% , the fourth quarterof contraction in a row. The annual G D P grow th rate plunged to 41. 5% in Q 2 2015 from-2.2% in Q1.

E u ro p e a n U n io n a n d e u r o area: U n e m p lo y m e n t rate still d e c l i n in g in the EU

The unem ploym ent rate fell to single digits in the EU . The decline has been constant'. from 111% in N ovem ber 2014 to 9.1% in Nm rember 21115. For the euro area the rate fell from 11.5% in N ovem ber 2014 to 10.5% in Nmrember 21115. These im provem ents o tthe econom ic situation are also reected in the econom ic sentim ent indicators {E51}: from 1114.9 and 1111.6 in Ianuarv 2015 for the EU and the euro area to 1118.9 and 1116.3 respectiver in December 215.

E U G D P grow th slightly decelerated w ith a quarterlyg row th rate ot.-'-1% in Q 3 21115, after{1.5% in Q 2. The annual G D P grow th rate rem ained constant at 1.9% in Q 3 21115 com paredto Q2.

E u ro area G D P grow th also slightlys low ed in Q 3 21115 with a g row th rate ot .3% in Q 3 2015com pared to 0.4% in Q2. The annual G D P grow th rate remained stable at 1.6% in Q 3 2015com pared to Q2.

The ash estimate of theannual ination rate in Decem ber 2015 for the euro area rem ainedstable at 0.2% com pared to N ovem ber 2015. In December 21115 the annual inat ion rate forenergy was 5 9 % in the euro area (after -7.3% in N ovem ber 2015) while "food. alcohol andtobacco" had the highest annual rate of increase. at 1.2%.

S ituat io n in t h e M e m b e r states: U n e m p lo y m e n t rate u n d e r 5 % in G e r m a n y a n d in lCzech Re p u b l ic

In N ovem ber 20 15, lGerm any and the Cz ech Republic presented the lowest unem ploym entrates Ofthe E U with 4.5% and 4 .6% , dow n from 4.8% and 5.9% respectively in Ianuary 2015.In Q 3 2015. G erm any and the Czech Repub lic reported an annual G D P grow th rate of 1.35%and 4.5% after 1.6% and 4.6% in Q 2 respectively. But in Q 3 2015. the highest annual G D Pgrow th rate ofthe E U was reported by M alta w ith 5.6 96 , up from 5.5% in Q2.

eu ro s tat l Eurosra U5U s - {JIl edition

Summary analysis

Lates t

m a c r o e c o n o m ic

d e v e lo p m e n t s Evolution of GDP

prod uctlnn

Construction

R e t a l l t r a d e

I n a t i o n

Unem ploym ent

I n t e r e s t r a t e s

Excha nge rates

Steady recovery o f the euro area econom y

Seasonally and w ork ing day adjusted C D P rose b y0 .3% in the euro area { M 1 9 } and by 0.4% in the E U 28 during the third quarter ot2015, compared w ith the previous quarter, accord ing toa second estimate published by Eurostat. In the second quarter of2015. G D P grew by 0.4% and 0.5% respectively Com pared w ith the sam e quarter o tthe previous year, non seasonally adjusted C D P rose by 1.6% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the E U 28 in the third quarter of 2015.

In October 2015 compared w ith Septem ber 2015, seasonally and w orking day adjusted industrial p roduction rose by 0.6% in the euro area ( E A I9 ) and by 0.5% in the EU2B. according to estimates from Eurostat. In September 2015 industrial production tell by 0.3% in the euro area and rem ained stable in the EU28. 1n Clctober 2015 com pared w ith Clctober 2014. industrial production increased by 1.9% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU28.

In October 2015 compared w ith Septem ber 2015, seasonally and w orking day adjusted production in the construction sector increased by 0.5% in the euro area {EA19} and by 0.1% in the EU28, according to rst estimates from Eurostat. In September 2015, production in construction tell by 0 3 % in the euro area and by 0 .2% in the EU 28. In Clctober 2015 com pared w ith October 2014, production in construction grew by 1.1% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU2B.

in Novem ber 2015 com pared w ith CIctober 2015, the seasonally and w orking day adjustedvolum e of retail trade decreased by 0.3% in the euro area (E1119). while it rose by 0 .2% in theEU 28, according to estimates from Eurostat. In October retail trade tell by 0.2% in the euroarea and rem ained stable in the EU28. In N ovem ber 2015 com pared w ith Novem ber 2014 theretail sales index increased by 1.4% in the euro area and by 2.6% in the EU28.

Euro area annual ination is expected to be 0.2% in December 2015, stable compared toN ovem ber 2015, up from 0.1% in October, according to a ash estimate from Eurostat. inN ovem ber 2014 the rate was 0.3%. European U n ion annual ination w as 0.1% in N ovem ber2015, up from 0.0% in Clctober. A year earlier the rate was 0.3%.

The euro area (E4419) seasonally-adjusted unem ploym ent rate was 10.5% in Novem ber 2015.dow n from 10.6% in Clctober 2015, and from 11.5% in N ovem ber 2014. This is the lowestrate recorded in the euro area since Clctober 201 1. The EU 28 unem ploym ent rate was 9.1%in Novem ber 2015, dow n from 9.2% in October 2015, and from 10.0% in Novem ber 2014.This is the lowest rate recorded in the E U 28 since Iuly 2009. Eurostat estimates that 22.159m illion m en and w om en in the EU28, of w hom 16.924 m illion were in the euro area, wereunem ployed in Novem ber 2015. Com pared w ith October 2015, the num ber of personsunem ployed decreased by 1?9 000 in the EU 28 and by 130 000 in the euro area. Com paredw ith Novem ber 2014, unemployment tell by 2.146 m illion in the EU 28 and by 1.5?3 m illionin the euro area.

Q n 3 Decem ber. 2015. TheG overn i ng lIGou ncil otthe European lIGentral Bank decided to keep unchanged the interest rate on the main renancing operations at 0.05%. EGE- continues its eltorts on the asset purchase program. Q n 16 December. 2015. the US Federal Reserve raised its rate to 0.5%. The Bank of Iapan decided to keep unchanged its key o'icial rate at 13.1%. The U K ' s o'icial bank rate has been unchanged at 13.5% since M arch 213139.The euro area's 3-m onth rate. Euribor. decreased to -0.09% in Novem ber. after -0.0 5% in October and -0.04% in September 21315. Long-term interest rates {monthly average weighted 10-year goverm nent bond yield} of the euro area decreased to 1.18% in Novem ber 2015. dow n from 1.21% in Qctober. The EU 28 long-term interest rates slightly increased to 1.44% in Novem ber from 1.4 3 % in November.

The e u ro ! US dollar exchange rate {monthly average} increased slightly to U S D 1.0877 in Decem ber 2015 from 1.0736 in Novem ber and 1.1235 in October. Theeuro increasedagainst the Iapanese yen in Decem ber 2015 w ith an exchange rate o n e n 132.36 for one euro.The euro remained stable against the Sw iss Franc at SF 1.0827 in Decem ber 2015. The euro1' U K Pound Sterling exchange rate increased slightly to G E P 0.72595 in Novem ber from0.70658 in October.

production

Ind ustrlal

Euro-statistics - 01,620 16 dition I eu ro state

O nly two p a ge s have been converted.P lea se go to https://docs.zone and S ign Up to convert all pages.