21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch1 People & the Planet by John Sulston FRS April 2012 A...
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![Page 1: 21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch1 People & the Planet by John Sulston FRS April 2012 A brief review by Richard Vernon 21st September 2012.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5519cbe2550346695e8b4aed/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 1
People & the Planetby John Sulston FRS
April 2012
A brief review by Richard Vernon21st September 2012
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 2
Report background
Sir John Sulston FRS was assisted by a working group of 22 experts in the same or related fields.
The report was reviewed by an independent panel of 8 experts before being published by the Royal Society in April 2012
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 3
Tips to access ‘People & Planet’
• Printed version available from Royal Society• has good Contents page but no index, so:
• Download electronic version from• http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Soci
ety_Content/policy/projects/people-planet/2012-04-25-PeoplePlanet.pdf
One can then ‘search’ in lieu of index
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 4
Some conventions
Least Developed Countries48 countries mostly in Africa & Asia, with low per capita income & human assets
Less Developed CountriesOthers in Africa & Asia + some in L. America, Caribbean, Pacific Islands.
More Developed CountriesEurope, N America, Australia, New Zealand & Japan
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 5
3 Key Challenges
• raise world’s 1.3 billion poorest out of extreme poverty
• reduce consumption of the most developed and emerging economies
• slow global population growth
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 6
1st Challenge: 1.3 billion poorest out of extreme poverty
• In 2000 World leaders commited to Millenium Development Goals
– 1st of which was to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
• Critical to reducing global inequalities• Needs increased per capita consumption for this
group– for improved nutrition & health care
• Needs reduced family size where currently highp.7, 13
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 7
2nd Challenge: reduce consumption by the rest of us
• Current levels unsustainable
• Requires radical change of society & current economic models
• Requires politicians to effect this
• Requires us to drive change at political level
p. 11, Chap 3.
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 8
3rd Challenge: slow global population growthPolicy interventions can impact through
investment in:• education, especially for females where
currently excluded• health care including family planning
services• trade policies to encourage local
entreprenurial activitiesSection 5.4 – p. 91...
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 9
Demographic basics
Sulston describes:Total fertility rate (TFR)Demographic transitionReplacement fertilityYouth dependency ratioOld age dependency ratio
Total dependency ratioDemogrpahic dividendDemographic deficitDemographic momentumDemographic inertia
See page 17 for a brief explanation of these terms
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 10
Key Demographic componentsthat affect population size & composition
Migration (international) Fertility Mortality
Demographic Transition shift from high mortality and high fertility
to low mortality and low fertility p15
increase in proportion of old peoplep. 21 et seq.
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 11
Migration
• most dynamic population change factor in destination countries
• increasing: 1990: 156m
2010: 214m (+38%)
• driven mostly by economic change
• refugees are only c. 8% (2010) (– was 12% in 1990)
p. 26, 103
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 12
Migration: pros & cons
Origin country Destination country
+
• remittances $125billion(cf $60b ODA) - 2004• return with new skills
• meet labour & skills shortages• enhance investment, trade, international relations
- • brain drain• social costs
• displace workers• demands on housing, services
p. 36
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 13
Fertility• Source of the greatest effect on future population size
• ‘More Developed Cntrs’: mostly < 2.1 Replacement level
• ‘Least Developed Cntrs’: high fertility rates, > 4.2, – population projected to x2 in next 40 years
• Fertility levels declining everywhere but:due to the Demographic Momentum - see next slide, p16
populations will go on rising for decades p45
due to large proportion of people of child-bearing age
eg Niger p38 Ghana – see next slide.
p. 30. Recommendation 3.
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 14
Fertility: Demographic Momentum
2010: Ghana population c. 20 million fertility rate of 4 births per woman.
If by 2020 fertility declines to replacement level
Then in 2060: population would stabilise at c. 40 million.
p. 21
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 15
Mortality
• declined faster than fertility in most Less and Least Developed Countries
• and especially in infant & child mortalitySo these are seeing :• increase in mothers of child bearing age
and• greatest population increases
p18, 28
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 16
Other issues raised: Age structure
• rate of ageing & the number of old people in the population are unprecedented in human history.
• Globally, over 65s:
– big variations between More, Less & Least DCsp.26
1950 5%
2010 9%
2050 20%
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 17
Other issues raised: Urbanisation• the increase in proportion of population
living in urban areas• a global phenomonen, but much faster in
the More Developed Countries
p28, 34
Least DCs
Less DCs
MoreDCs
Global
1950 29 %
2005 27 % 46 % 74 % 49 %
(2050) (69 %)
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 18
Urbanisation effects
+ can reduce material consumption + can reduce environmental impact
through efficiency delivery of services rapid urbanisation risk of slum conditions
– needs well planned provision of water supply, waste disposal, power and other services
See Recommendation 5
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 19
Other issues: Gross Domestic Product
• GDP most widely used indicator of a country’s prosperity but – a poor indicator of degree to which human needs
are met– ignores depletion of natural capital: agricultural
land, forests, watersheds, fisheries, fresh water etc– becomes a driver of consumption instead of saving
p. 13, 58, 87
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 20
3 challenges 9 recommendations
1. poverty2. consumption3. fertility4. planning5. urbanisation
6. education7. research8. wealth
management9. inter-
governmental collaboration
p. 9. Chapter 6
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21 Sept 2012 Population Matters Oxford Branch 21
So what can I do?
1.2.3.
************