21 July 2020 - techfxtraders.com · • Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now...

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21 July 2020

Transcript of 21 July 2020 - techfxtraders.com · • Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now...

Page 1: 21 July 2020 - techfxtraders.com · • Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now waiting for a near term catalyst to help the EURUSD overcome the resistance levels

21 July 2020

Page 2: 21 July 2020 - techfxtraders.com · • Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now waiting for a near term catalyst to help the EURUSD overcome the resistance levels

221 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 21 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not

contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

S&P500

• The decisive break and close above the 3230/40 resistance zone overnight, puts the near-term prospects of the S&P500 in a more

positive light.

• It appears the S&P500 completed its corrective pullback at the 29th of June 2983.50 low and providing the S&P500 remains above near-

term support 3090 and medium-term support 3150/30ish the bias is for the rally to extend towards 3500/3600.

• Keeping in mind should the S&P500 fail to go on with the overnight break higher and then fall back below 3150/30ish, it would negate

the positive bias and warn that retest of the 3030/2930 support is possible.

• Short Term Summary: Leaning against near term support at 3090 as well as M/T support at 3150/30, a positive bias is in place

Page 3: 21 July 2020 - techfxtraders.com · • Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now waiting for a near term catalyst to help the EURUSD overcome the resistance levels

321 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 21 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not

contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

AUDUSD

• While below the .7064 high, the AUDUSD remains at risk of another corrective leg low towards the mid June .6776 low (Wave c)

where we would look to be a buyer.

• However this outcome seems less likely after the S&P500 which has been leading the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD appears to have

broken higher overnight.

• In this context a break and close above the .7064 high, would suggest the AUDUSD can extend its rally towards the next layer of

medium-term resistance .7300/.7500c. Should this occur we will consider a more aggressive buy entry.

• Short Term Summary: Currently Neutral - turning positive on a break/close above the .7064 high.

Page 4: 21 July 2020 - techfxtraders.com · • Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now waiting for a near term catalyst to help the EURUSD overcome the resistance levels

421 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 21 July 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not

contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

EURUSD

• Last week the EURUSD was able to post its highest weekly close since January 2019. This is viewed as another bullish development.

• However we are mindful of the bearish divergence creeping in via the RSI, the near vicinity of the March 1.1495 high as well as

resistance at 1.1596 coming from the 50% retracement of the decline from the 1.2555 high to the 1.0636 low.

• Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now waiting for a near term catalyst to help the EURUSD overcome the

resistance levels mentioned above. Or we will look to buy dip to buy towards medium term support 1.1250/00.

• Short Term Summary: While we retain a positive medium-term outlook for the EURUSD, in the short term we are currently neutral.

Page 5: 21 July 2020 - techfxtraders.com · • Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now waiting for a near term catalyst to help the EURUSD overcome the resistance levels

521 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 21 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

NZDUSD

• The price action following the June .6585 high is viewed as counter trend/corrective. While below the .6585/00 resistance, the

NZDUSD is at risk of another leg corrective leg lower towards the mid June .6381 low (Wave c) where we look to be a buyer.

• However the chances of the NZDUSD talking another leg lower is less likely following the break higher in the S&P500 overnight.

• In this context, a break/close above the recent .6601 high it would suggest a rally towards .6850 is underway and a more aggressive

buy entry will need to be considered.

• Short Term Summary: Currently Neutral - turning positive on a break/close above the .6601 high.

Page 6: 21 July 2020 - techfxtraders.com · • Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now waiting for a near term catalyst to help the EURUSD overcome the resistance levels

621 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 21 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

AUDNZD

• Following a 5-wave rally from the March low to the June 1.0881 high AUDNZD entered a correction. It is possible last weeks 1.0566

low completed the correction.

• However as the 1.0566 low fell short of our wave equality corrective target 1.0460 area, we are not yet able to say decisively the

correction is complete.

• We are now watching either for a break close above 1.0700 in which case we will consider a more aggressive buy strategy.

• Or alternatively we will look to buy AUDNZD if it takes another leg lower towards 1.0460 in coming sessions.

• Short Term Summary: Close to moving from a neutral to a more positive bias.

Page 7: 21 July 2020 - techfxtraders.com · • Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now waiting for a near term catalyst to help the EURUSD overcome the resistance levels

721 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 21 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

EURCHF

• After noting evidence of a base forming in EURCHF in early July and with some nice risk/reward on offer we suggested opened a

long EURCHF position at 1.0642.

• Ahead of last weeks EU summit we elected to take partial profits at 1.0750. The outcome of the EU summit does leave the near

term direction of EURCHF a little mixed, with a break/close above the downtrend resistance at 1.0820/30 required to confirm that

the uptrend has resumed.

• TRADE IDEA: Long EURCHF at 1.0642. We took profit on partial longs near 1.0750 and have elected to let the balance run for a test

of the next upside target at 1.0916. The stop loss will be raised to 1.0709, just below the recent swing low.

Page 8: 21 July 2020 - techfxtraders.com · • Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now waiting for a near term catalyst to help the EURUSD overcome the resistance levels

821 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 21 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

USDJPY

• Post the volatility in March/April, USDJPY settled within a range between 110.00 and 106.00.

• More recently USDJPY has been capped by the resistance coming from the 200-day moving average and while below here and the last

swing high at 108.17 a downside bias remains, looking for a retest of the support 106.00 area.

• Should the support at 106.00 see a sustained break, it then exposes a move towards medium term support 104.50ish. Keeping in

mind, it would take a break back above 108.20, to return to a more neutral bias and suggest USDJPY can rotate back towards the top of

the range. Short Term Summary: While below 108.00/20 a weak negative bias is in place.

Page 9: 21 July 2020 - techfxtraders.com · • Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now waiting for a near term catalyst to help the EURUSD overcome the resistance levels

921 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 21 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

GOLD

• Gold has spent the last two weeks consolidating ahead of its recent $1818 high.

• The rally overnight suggests the uptrend has resumed, targeting $1840/50, possibly $1920.

• Keeping in mind, should gold break/close below the uptrend support $1790/85 it would be an initial warning that a pullback towards

the $1765/45 breakout zone is underway with risks for a deeper pullback, towards $1660.

• Short Term Summary: While above uptrend support $1785 allow for another leg higher towards $1840/50.

Page 10: 21 July 2020 - techfxtraders.com · • Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now waiting for a near term catalyst to help the EURUSD overcome the resistance levels

1021 July, 2020Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 21 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

SILVER

• In early July we noted that a break above downtrend resistance $18.45 would be initial confirmation that a move towards $18.94

and then $19.65 was underway. After the explosive move higher overnight those targets have now well and truly been achieved.

• We don’t see any reason to meddle with the existing trade idea and as such remain long looking for Silver to test the next upside

target at $21.00 in due course.

• TRADE IDEA: We suggested opening longs on a break above $18.47 leaving room to add if Silver posted a daily close above $18.47.

Because the break higher coincided with me going on holidays, I didn’t add to the position, however well done for those who did. It

was suggested taking partial profits near $19.40 last week, leaving the remainder for a move towards $21.00. The stop loss on the

balance is raised again to $18.80 (below uptrend support).

Page 11: 21 July 2020 - techfxtraders.com · • Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now waiting for a near term catalyst to help the EURUSD overcome the resistance levels

1121 July, 2020

DISCLAIMER

DISCLAIMER

TECH-FX TRADING PTY LTD (ACN 617 797 645) is an Authorised Representative (1255203) of Gain Capital Australia Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) which holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (number 345646).

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments. Gain Capital Australia Pty Ltd recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment further CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets. It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.cityindex.com.au, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. GAIN Capital Australia Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

TECHFX TRADERS owns copyright of the information and material contained in this presentation/report/webinar. Information may be printed or downloaded for personal use. The information may not otherwise be reproduced and must not be distributed or transmitted to any other person or used in any way without the express approval of TECHFX TRADERS.

Page 12: 21 July 2020 - techfxtraders.com · • Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now waiting for a near term catalyst to help the EURUSD overcome the resistance levels

1221 July, 2020

DISCLAIMER

DISCLAIMER

TECH-FX TRADING PTY LTD (ACN 617 797 645) is an Authorised Representative (1255203) of Gain Capital Australia Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) which holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (number 345646).

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments. Gain Capital Australia Pty Ltd recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment further CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets. It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.cityindex.com.au, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. GAIN Capital Australia Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

TECHFX TRADERS owns copyright of the information and material contained in this presentation/report/webinar. Information may be printed or downloaded for personal use. The information may not otherwise be reproduced and must not be distributed or transmitted to any other person or used in any way without the express approval of TECHFX TRADERS.

Page 13: 21 July 2020 - techfxtraders.com · • Hence while we remain medium term EURUSD bulls, we are now waiting for a near term catalyst to help the EURUSD overcome the resistance levels