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21 ISMOR 1 September 2004 Analytic Decision Support in a Civilian Organization:OPP&A in the CPA
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21 ISMOR 1 September 2004 Analytic Decision Support in a Civilian Organization:OPP&A in the CPA David F. Davis George Mason University [email protected] http://popp.gmu.edu
description
21 ISMOR 1 September 2004 Analytic Decision Support in a Civilian Organization:OPP&A in the CPA David F. Davis George Mason University [email protected] http://popp.gmu.edu. OED. IRMO/Planning. OPP&A. POPP. I’m really not representing any of these!. Our Logo from IRMO/Planning. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of 21 ISMOR 1 September 2004 Analytic Decision Support in a Civilian Organization:OPP&A in the CPA
21 ISMOR 1 September 2004
Analytic Decision Support in a Civilian Organization:OPP&A in the CPA
David F. DavisGeorge Mason University
[email protected]://popp.gmu.edu
I’m really not representing any of these!
POPP
OED
OPP&A
IRMO/Planning
Our Logo from IRMO/Planning(I’ll use it from here on)
Decision Support
The PlansThe QuestionsThe AnalysisThe Issues
The Plans
Military Campaign Plans Civilian Plans
Future of Iraq – DOS Late 2002Unified Mission Plan – CPA April 2003Initial Strategic Plan – CPA late summer 2003Transition Strategic Plan – CPA November 2003Mission Performance Plan – Embassy July 2004
OIF 1 – Coalition 2002/2003 – Coalition April 2003 – Coalition Nov. 2003Update – MNF-I July 2004
Initial planning appears to have been disconnected.Subsequent planning was more coordinated.MNF-I and late CPA/Embassy planning verged on collaboration.
The CPA Strategic PlanTowards Transition
Towards Transition
Security Economics Essential Services Governance Strategic Communications
Based, in part, on previous work done for other missions, the Strategic Plan began with the primary goal of CPA and refined each of the sub-goals, or sectors, into objectives – then key tasks – and finally sub-tasks. The sub-tasks were monitored on a weekly basis and progress was identified by the responsible – operational – organization.
A Look at the MPP
Three overarching themes are addressed in the introduction to the MPP.
• Fighting Terror• Building Democracy• Reconstruction and Economic Development.
These same three themes are put forth by Ambassador Negroponte quite frequently as:
• Political: Democratization and the Rule of Law• Economic: Development and Reconstruction• Security: Eliminating Terrorism and Providing Public Safety
Structure of the MPP
Performance Goal Papers
Strategic Goals
Performance Goals
Strategies
Tactics
Performance Indicators
The structure of the MPP is similar to that of the Strategic Plan – it is a decomposition of goals to activities.
Performance Goal Papers
I – Prevention and Response to Terrorism
II – Regional Stability
III – Weapons of Mass Destruction
IV – Democracy and Human Rights
V – Economic Prosperity and Security
VI – Consular Affairs
VII – Mission Security
VIII – Mutual Understanding
IX – Education and Health Services
X – Humanitarian Response
XI – Management and Organizational Excellence
Although comprehensive, these Goal Papers do not track directly with the themes. Very generally, they map as follows:
• Political: IV, VIII• Economic: V, IX, X• Security: I, II, III
With the core Embassy Operations accounting for VI, VII and XI.
Other Categorization Schemes
UN ClustersWorld Bank Sectors2207 CategoriesUSAID Primary SectorsThe Conceptual Model of Peace Operations
Although very similar, the determination of what activity or project belongs to what category becomes very difficult to predetermine. Knowing this ‘mapping’ is essential as we try to understand how spending and resource allocation relates to the overall goals and priorities of the Mission.
The Questions
The bottom line: Not enough!
However, most of the questions revolved around priorities.
Under CPA: - What are the risks to the Transition? - What should be the top five priorities for the Administrator?
Under IRMO: - How should the $18.4B be allocated? - What should be measured?
The Analysis
The bottom line: Not enough!
However, most of the questions revolved around priorities.
Under CPA: - What are the risks to the Transition? - What should be the top five priorities for the Administrator?
Under IRMO: - How should the $18.4B be allocated? - What should be measure?
Identifying the risks to the transition required that we used the current Strategic Plan.
If the Objectives of the Strategic Plan represent the requirements, then the Amber and Red Objectives should help us begin the analysis of Risk – Probability of Failure.
The Risks
Democratic
Market Economy
Unified
Stable
Protected Freedoms
Pose No Threat
Self Defense
DemocraticPeaceTheory
Stability'Theory'
Free, Whole andSelf Protecting
Whole, SelfProtecting and
Sustainable
Topics from "Towards Transition in Iraq"Relationships by Analyst based on known or accepted concepts28 Feb 04 - DFD
The GoalThe ultimate goal is a unified and stable, democratic Iraq thatprovides effective and representative government for the Iraqipeople; is underpinned by new and protected freedoms for allIraqis and a growing market economy; is able to defend itself butno longer poses a threat to its neighbors or international security.
Goal Tree
Democratic
Market EconomyUnified
Stable
Protected Freedoms
Pose No Threat
Self Defense
ElectoralProcesses
StrategicCommunications
Plan
Public SafetyCounter
Insurgency
Judicial Systems
Electricity
Vital and Critical Elementsscored with Amber Status.
Tier I Ministries Only
Tree Update
Pose No Threat
Civil Order Social Justice
Public Safety
CounterInsurgency
Judicial Systems
ElectoralProcesses
Electricity
Societal Support
Transportation andDistribution
StrategicCommunications
Plan
Iraqi Media
Water and PublicWorks
Refugees and IDPs
Human Rights
Risk Model Version 0.1Restricted to Plan Elements
12 March 2004
The Model
Microsoft Belief Network
Microsoft Belief Network Evaluated
The Allocation
How can we propose a reallocation of the $18.4B?This effort has consumed the Embassy, although it was never a major issue in the CPA. This dichotomy may well be the source of many books over the next several years.
Beginning in early June, the IRMO Planning office began to look at this issue from a goals based perspective.
DGS
Democratization and the Rule of Law
EconomicDevelopment
EliminateTerrorism
MPP High Level Goals
Political
Security Economic
The analysis was an attempt to show the relationship between the ‘plan’ and the $18.4B.
DGS
Democratization and the Rule of Law
EconomicDevelopment
EliminateTerrorism
2 A Strong Reliable Regional Partner
1 Counter Terrorism
5 Sustainable Growth
9 Social, Environmental, Health and Education
10 Refugees and IDPs
4 A Democratic and Free Iraq
3 Complete and Verifiable
Disarmament
MPP Strategic Goals
DGS
Democratization and the Rule of Law
EconomicDevelopment
EliminateTerrorism
2 A Strong Reliable Regional Partner
1 Counter Terrorism
5 Sustainable Growth
9 Social, Environmental, Health and Education
10 Refugees and IDPs
4 A Democratic and Free Iraq
3 Complete and Verifiable
Disarmament
Security and Law Enforcement
Education, Refugees, Human Rights and Governance
Health
Water Resources and Sanitation
Transportation and Telecommunications
ElectricityOil
Justice, Public Safety Infrastructure and Civil Society
PMO Categories Impacting MPP Strategic Goals
DGS
Democratization and the Rule of Law
EconomicDevelopment
EliminateTerrorism
2 A Strong Reliable Regional Partner
1 Counter Terrorism
5 Sustainable Growth
9 Social, Environmental, Health and Education
10 Refugees and IDPs
4 A Democratic and Free Iraq
3 Complete and Verifiable
Disarmament
USAID Sectors Impacting MPP Strategic Goals
Local Governance and Civic Action Economic Recovery,
Reform and Sustained Growth
Emergency
Education
Public Utilities and Infrastructure
Ports and Airports
Health
DGS
Democratization and the Rule of Law
EconomicDevelopment
EliminateTerrorism
2 A Strong Reliable Regional Partner
1 Counter Terrorism
5 Sustainable Growth
9 Social, Environmental, Health and Education
10 Refugees and IDPs
4 A Democratic and Free Iraq
3 Complete and Verifiable
Disarmament
Security and Law Enforcement
Education, Refugees, Human Rights and GovernanceHealth
Water Resources and Sanitation
Transportation and Telecommunications
ElectricityOil
Justice, Public Safety Infrastructure and Civil Society
Local Governance and Civic Action
Economic Recovery, Reform and Sustained Growth
Emergency
Education
Public Utilities and InfrastructurePorts and Airports
Health
661
31
752471
232
0
0
15
42
90
1.5
64
53 993Ongoing or CompletedMillion US$
0
USAID project money only, does not include program overhead and direct salariesPMO as of 14 June 2004, USAID as of 17 June 2004
DGS
Democratization and the Rule of Law
EconomicDevelopment
EliminateTerrorism
2 A Strong Reliable Regional Partner
1 Counter Terrorism
5 Sustainable Growth
9 Social, Environmental, Health and Education
10 Refugees and IDPs
4 A Democratic and Free Iraq
3 Complete and Verifiable
Disarmament
Security and Law Enforcement
Education, Refugees, Human Rights and GovernanceHealth
Water Resources and Sanitation
Transportation and Telecommunications
ElectricityOil
Justice, Public Safety Infrastructure and Civil Society
Local Governance and Civic Action
Economic Recovery, Reform and Sustained Growth
Emergency
Education
Public Utilities and InfrastructurePorts and Airports
Health
Ongoing or CompletedMillion US$
$3,162M
$243.5M
13:1
USAID project money only, does not include program overhead and direct salaries
How should we be spending the money?
If we are to be spending the money to further the goals of the Mission, then we should try to understand how each of the projects and activities contribute to those goals. This will require some innovative thought on the part of all stakeholders: US, International Partners and the Iraqis.
The IRMO Planning approach to this problem uses both quantitative and qualitative techniques of Management Science and Operations Research.
1. Identify projects and activities within funding sectors by source of funding and primary agent (PCO, USAID, IC, Iraqi)
2. Score these projects, within sectors, on the project’s/activity’s contribution to the second level Goals of the COM.
3. Score the second level Goals on their contribution to the overall Mission.4. Determine the combined scores for each alternative allocation strategy.
The choice of allocation strategy will be made by the leadership, not the analyst.
Identify contribution of projects and activities to the sectors.
The advocacy briefings indicated that in sector priority lists exist in almost every case. These priority lists and the contribution of the project to the mission goals could be used to provide for project scoring within sector.
However, this initial effort is focused on determining an investment strategy, not individual sector spending plans. The scoring must represent the general utility expected of a project within a sector.
Alternative Allocations
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Public Buildingsand Other
Reconstruction
RegionalPrograms
EconomicReconstruction
Governance Humanitarian andHuman Services
Essential Services Security
Mill
ion
$
Non US Spent2207Option AOption B
GAO Sector Description
Review
Scoring:
Contribution of Projects to GoalsContribution of Projects to SectorsContribution of Goals to Mission
The ModelAllocate resources to the sectors in order to maximize the total utility (effectiveness), subject to the requirement that the total resources do not exceed $M (currently set to $18.2m).
Maximize i iiuwU
iu
ia
Ma
i
i
ii
1
0
S.T.
Where wi is the Weight of Sector i, ui is the utility of Sector i , ai is the distribution to Sector i, and fi is defined as a piece-wise linear function.
)(afu ii And
Sector A(1) A(N) X M(1) M(N) B
Public Buildings and Other Reconstruction 535 1831 0.5 0.000934579 0.0003858 0.293595679
Economic Reconstruction 651 1962 0.5 0.000768049 0.00038139 0.251716247
Governance 199 587 0.5 0.002512563 0.00128866 0.243556701
Regional Programs 1,230 3,027 0.5 0.000406504 0.00027824 0.157762938
Security 5,080 5,234 0.5 9.84252E-05 0.00324675 -15.99350649
Humanitarian and Human Services 2,045 8,745 0.5 0.000244499 7.4627E-05 0.34738806
Essential Services 7,801 33,873 0.5 6.40943E-05 1.9178E-05 0.35039506
A, in $
U
A(1) A(N)
X
1.0
U = M(1)*A
U = M(2)*A + B
Utility Functions – fi
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
PublicBuildings andOtherReconstructionEconomicReconstruction
Governance
RegionalPrograms
Security
Humanitarianand HumanServices
EssentialServices
In Sector Utilities
($1000s)
Util
ities
(1.
0 M
axim
um)
Sector Weights
ESS, 0.203
Humanitarian, 0.121
Gov., 0.115
Econ. Rec., 0.079
Regional, 0.037
Public and other, 0.026
Security, 0.419
Alternative Comparisons
Base Option A Option BPublic Buildings and Other Reconstruction 0 100 100 677 677Regional Programs 0 1000 1000 523 523Economic Reconstruction 184 800 616 1624 1440Governance 451 1179 728 1087 636Humanitarian and Human Services 1052 1350 298 1561 509Essential Services 12304 9500 -2804 8549 -3755Security 4281 4343 62 4251 -30
Change from Base
The combination of effectiveness and importance allows for a calculation of the overall score.
Relative Scores
0.75
0.76
0.77
0.78
0.79
0.8
0.81
0.82
0.83
0.84
Base Option A Option B
The Issues
Culture of AnalysisIntent of the Office v. Background of the DirectorAsking questions for which answers are desired
Cornwallis X
Proposed Theme: Analysis for the Multi-National Inter-AgencyThe ‘Multi-Agency.’
Location is being decided by the committee since the Pearson Peacekeeping Centre is no longer available for conferences in residence.
1: The Royal Military College in Kingston, Ontario, Canada2: The Boyana Palace, Sofia, Bulgaria3: The Holiday Inn – Las Cruces, Las Cruces, New Mexico, USA
Professor D.F. Davis, Program ChairGeorge Mason University, MS3B13401 N. Fairfax Dr.Arlington, VA 22201, USA+1 (703) 993-1703 [email protected] Dr. Ted Woodcock, Co-Chair and EditorSchool of Public Policy4400 University Dr.Fairfax, VA 22030+1 (703) 993-2280 [email protected] Mr. Karl BertscheDaimler-Benz/Dornier88039 Friedrichshafen, Germany+49(7545)89613 [email protected] Dr. Paul Chouinard Strategic Planning Operations Research Team101 Colonel Bye Dr.Ottawa, OntarioCanada, K1A OK2+1 (613) 992-4500 [email protected]
Mr. S Anders ChristenssonNational Defence CollegeSE 117 93 StockholmSweden+46 70 628 9678 [email protected] Dr. Reiner K. HuberBundeswehr UniversityD-85577 NeubibergGermany+49(089)6004-2206 [email protected] Dr. George RoseGroup LeaderSupport to OperationsPCS Department Dstl Farnborough+44 1252 45 1825 [email protected] Mr. E.P. Visco3752 Capulet TraceSilver Spring, MD 20906+1 (301) 598-8048 [Voice/Fax][email protected] Larry WentzGMU Center of Exellence in C3I+1 703-757-1250 Voice+1 703-757-1251 [email protected]
Cornwallis Committee Members
