2050 Global Calculator CO2 GHG emissions

Benoit Lefevre, Ph.D.

Director, Transport and Climate, EMBARQ

Washington DC

July 16th, 2014

Global Calculator

Overview of the Global Calculator project Benoit Lefevre, Ph.D. Erin Cooper Julien Pestiaux July 16th, 2014

Global Calculator

Background Presentation of the Global Calculator Methodology Demonstration Next Steps

Structure

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Global Calculator

DECC: From National Calculators to Global Calculator

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

UK 2050 Calculator published

UK Calculator used to inform

Carbon Plan

Chinese govt start work on 2050

Calculator

ICF approval for 2050 Calculator

project

Launch of Chinese Calculator

South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh all start

work

Global Calculator team to start

work

10 developing countries developed

2050 Calculators

Launch of Global Calculator

Aim

Achieved

Global Calculator

The UK set a legal requirement to reduce its emissions by 80% by 2050 from 1990 levels

Can we meet our targets without using nuclear?

What proportion of energy might the UK import in

2050?

Will we still be able to fly? What might be the impact

on the UK landscape?

How much will it cost?

How much bioenergy can the UK produce?

How can we deal with intermittency of

renewables?

Despite having sophisticated optimising models, the UK built its “2050 Calculator”

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Global Calculator

UK Calculator

Global Calculator

The UK Calculator has had an impact within and outside of government

Informing UK Government energy strategy • Electricity market reform

• Heat strategy

• Bioenergy strategy

• Carbon Plan 2011

• Urgent analysis (e.g. for Cabinet

ministers, and post Fukushima)

Energising debate among NGOs, businesses and politicians • Expert pathways

• Calculator adopted as an analytical and educational tool

• Briefing for MPs,

and cited in Hansard

Within government Outside government

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Global Calculator

Other countries are making good progress on their country-level 2050 Calculators

Published: Work in progress: Close to starting: In discussion:

UK Belgium China South Korea

South Africa Brazil Bangladesh

India Indonesia

Nigeria Poland Russia France

Taiwan

Algeria

Hungary Serbia and SEE Japan

Mexico

ICF supported

Thailand Vietnam

USA Philippines Ethiopia

Colombia

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Global Calculator

• The Chines Planning Commission used their National Calculator to coherence of their 5-year plan: would there be enough supply to meet demand if they stopped building coal power plants?

• The tool will support the forthcoming publication of “China Energy Outlook” • This series publications won high praise for both academic and practical

value, http://eri.org.cn/news_zj.php?cid27=&aid=2172

Global Calculator

Background Presentation of the Global Calculator Methodology Demonstration Next Steps

Structure

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Global Calculator

Why a Global Calculator ?

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A difficulty with the current suite of global climate and energy models is that they tend not to be very user friendly. For example, MARKAL screenshot:

So DECC decided to build a Global Calculator model.

Global Calculator

Consortium

Sophie Hartfield Team leader, (DECC)

Tom Bain

Lead modeller

(DECC)

Erica Thompson

Climate science and

impacts

(LSE)

Julien Pestiaux

Transport

Alexandre Strapasson

Land/bio/food

(ICL)

Anindya Bhattacharya Electricity and

fossil fuels (E&Y)

Ephraim Broschkowski

Visuals

(CMF)

Zhang Bo

Buildings (Chinese ERD/ERI)

Davide D’Ambrosio IEA support on data, peer review and stakeholder engagement

Michel Cornet

Materials

(Climact)

Support from Climate-KIC partners: Utrecht University, Netherlands; Potsdam Institute, Germany; Walker Institute, UK; Rothamsted Research, UK; University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, France; Met Office, UK; and Tyndall Centre, UK.

Funded by Climate-KIC

Benoit Lefevre (WRI) Erin Cooper (WRI)

Markus Wrobel (CMF)

Jeremy Woods and Nicole Kalas (ICL and

Climate-KIC)

Global Calculator

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Added value of Global Calculator

• User-friendly

• Transparent • Gives a cross-sectoral view in one glance • Gives global perspective • Shows trade-offs between policies • Unlike national calculators, global calculator is constrained by availability of materials

Global Calculator

Scenario analysis tool for showing how global energy, land and food system “adds up” and showing the business opportunities that could arise from decarbonisation. e.g. • Industry: if big shift to recycling and more durable

products, what does this mean for industrial production?

• Transport: what’s the size of the potential future market for EVs (would there be enough rare earth materials to manufacture vehicle batteries)?

• Food: what’s the global availability of land for food vs bioenergy, and what might this mean for production methods?

It will help answer questions of interest to businesses…

Multinational businesses

User Questions answered

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Global Calculator

Show at a glance how pathways from other models compare (e.g. IEA 2, 4 and 6D pathways). Develop and promote a global eco-wide vision / pathway for a sustainable future

… and NGOs and governments

To make the case for tackling climate change by: • Showing detrimental impacts • Illustrating aspirational low emission pathways.

Environmental NGOs and

governments

All users

User Questions answered

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Global Calculator

But it will not be designed to answer more complex price impact and burden sharing questions

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It will not be designed to answer questions such as: • Price impacts: what is the impact of a global carbon tax of $x/tCO2?

• Burden sharing: if the US did X and China did Y, how would other

countries respond and what would happen to global emissions and climate impacts?

But it will be able to illustrate pathways from other models exploring these questions.

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Global Calculator

Background Presentation of the Global Calculator Methodology Demonstration Next Steps

Structure

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Global Calculator High level structure of the Transport modelling

Transport (energy demand and emissions)

Passenger

Urban

Non-Urban

Long range international

Freight

Short to medium range / domestic

Long range international

(ship, air)

+

+

+

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Automobile City

Transit City

Booming City

+

Developed

Developing +

Developed

Developing +

Developed

Developing +

Developed

Developing +

Global Calculator

Urban

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Automobile City Transit City

Booming City +

City types and levels are based on:

• City form and projected future growth

• Existing mode shares within each city type

• Trip distances within each city type

• Countries/population of each category

Close-up on urban passenger travel modelling

To capture change potential in a variety of cities throughout the world.

Global Calculator

IMPROVE

IMPROVE

SHIFT

Demand ICEV road transport

GHG emissions (CO2e) CARS

Demand electric road transport

Fuel demand CARS

Elecricity demand - CARS

Electricity emissions factors

Fuel emissions factor

Efficiency rate

Occupancy rate

Electric penetration

Occupancy rate

x

+

Transport demand CARS

ICEV penetration

Transport demand CARS

Modal share CARS

Urban passengers transport demand per year per inhabitant in the city

Urban population

x x x

x

Efficiency rate

x x

Modal share CARS

Urban passengers transport demand per year per inhabitant in the city

Urban population

x

GHG emissions – CARS electricity

GHG emissions – CARS fuel

TOTAL FIGURES

APPROACH

SOURCE: Global Calculator team

AVOID

AVOID

SHIFT

x

x TOTAL FIGURES

APPROACH

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Structure of the URBAN Passengers transport modelling

Global Calculator

Levels 1 to 4 represent the least/most abatement effort that experts believe possible

The level 1-4 range is simply a synthesis of what a wide range of credible experts believe could be possible by 2050.

Level 1: Minimum

abatement effort

Level 2: ambitious but

achievable

Level 3: very ambitious but

achievable

Level 4: extraordinarily ambitious and

extreme

Most experts will tend to congregate here Only a minority of experts will

think this is possible. An

extreme view.

More abatement effort

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Global Calculator

Level 1 represents the minimum level of abatement effort

Technology levers: minimum or no technological roll out. e.g. UK nuclear

Behavioural levers: minimal abatement effort. Maximum demand that could plausibly be envisaged. In level 1 there is no decoupling of economic/population growth and demand. e.g. UK average home temperature

Level 1 should not be interpreted as BAU. It may actually be more pessimistic. 25

Global Calculator

Level 2 is described by most experts as ambitious but achievable; and level 3 is described as very ambitious but achievable

Technology levers: technological roll out at ambitious / very ambitious rates. e.g. UK nuclear

Behavioural levers: ambitious / very ambitious behaviour change and abatement effort in this sector. e.g. UK average home temperature

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Global Calculator

Level 4 for technology levers reflects the maximum theoretical potential of a technology

Technology levers: the maximum technology roll out that is technically possible by 2050, not constrained by cost. e.g. UK nuclear

Level 4 is: • Extraordinarily ambitious and

extreme – an “Apollo” level of effort • The maximum technology roll out as

suggested by the most ambitious expert

• Only constrained by: • Build/installation rate: e.g. roll

out of nuclear will be constrained by the fastest it is possible to build plants (determined by a “top runner” build rate)

• Natural resources: e.g. roll out of wind and solar will be constrained by the availability of windy/sunny locations.

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Global Calculator

How does the Calculator reflect current/planned policy?

Current / planned policy is not reflected in the levels 1-4… Level 1 is not the “business as usual” scenario because it does not attempt to take account of existing/planned policy. Level 1 is actually likely to be higher emissions than business as usual. … instead, it’s reflected in example pathways e.g. The IEA 4DS is all current and planned policy.

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Global Calculator

Background Presentation of the Global Calculator Methodology Demonstration Next Steps

Structure

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Global Calculator

Demo of prototype Global Calculator tool

http://gcp.pik-potsdam.de/glob-calc-v10a.html Username: gcp Password: ObErOn7! (please note the confidentiality agreement) 30

Benoit Lefevre, Ph.D.

Benoit Lefevre is the Director of the

Transport and Climate Program for

and EMBARQ/WRI. He is in charge

of developing a new initiative on

transport and climate change. Benoit

leads the Transport Working Group

of the Low Emissions Development

Strategies Global Partnership (LEDS-

GP).

About the Presenter