2022 Report

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IEEE CS

2022ReportHasan Alkhatib, Paolo Faraboschi, Eitan Frachtenberg,

Hironori Kasahara, Danny Lange, Phil Laplante, Arif Merchant,Dejan Milojicic, and Karsten Schwan

with contributions by: Mohammed AlQuraishi, Angela Burgess,David Forsyth, Hiroyasu Iwata, Rick McGeer, and John Walz

read on

http://www.ieee.org/http://www.computer.org/

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Preface

In 2013-14, nine technical leaders wrote a report, entitled

IEEE CS 2022, surveying 23 innovative technologies that

could change the industry by the year 2022. The reportcovers security cross-cutting issues, open intellectual prop-erty movement, sustainability, massively online open courses,quantum computing, device and nanotechnology, deviceand nanotechnology, 3D integrated circuits, multicore, pho-tonics, universal memory, networking and interconnectivity,software-defined networks, high-performance computing,

cloud computing, the Internet of Things, natural user interfac-es, 3D printing, big data and analytics, machine learning andintelligent systems, computer vision and pattern recognition,life sciences, computational biology and bioinformatics, androbotics for medical care.

These technologies, tied into a scenario that we call seam-less intelligence, present a view of the future. For each of the23 technologies, there is a description of the state of the art,challenges, where we think the technology will go, and itsdisruption. To confirm the report’s prediction, we surveyedIEEE members about technology drivers and disruptors. Wealso tried to predict what kind of society the world wouldrequire with these 23 technologies. Finally, we analyzed theIEEE digital library to better understand the degree to whichthese technologies are covered today and by which Societies,so that we can make better ties.

This document is intended for computer science profession-als, students, and professors, as well as laymen interestedin technology and technology use. While we tried to be

complete and exhaustive, it is inevitable that some technolo-gies have been omitted, such as Bitcoin, future transportation,and the general notion of what technology contributes to themankind. Our position, as well as the premise that this docu-ment brings, is that technology is the enabler. What humanitytakes out of it really depends on human society.

The IEEE CS 2022 report was presented at the Computer So-ciety of India Congress, at the Information Processing Societyof Japan (IPSJ) Congress, at the IEEE CS Board of Governors,

at the IEEE CS Industrial Advisory Board, and at BelgradeChapter. We received positive feedback and excellent ideasfor improvement. This is a living document, because the tech-nology continuously changes. We intend to use this documentfor the IEEE CS strategic planning that takes place everythree years. We hope that the IEEE CS will be able to come upwith similar reports regularly in the future.

I thank Hasan Alkhatib, Paolo Faraboschi, Eitan Frachtenberg,Hironori Kasahara, Danny Lange, Phil Laplante, Arif Merchant,

and Karsten Schwan for making this journey to 2022 together.Without their vision, technical knowledge, and creativity, thisdocument would not be possible.

Dejan S Milojicic,IEEE Computer Society President 2014, February 2014

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CON T E N T S

1. Introduction 2. Seamless

Intelligence Scenario

3. 23 Technologies

in 2022

4. Drivers and

Disruptors

5. TechnologyCoverage6. IEEE ComputerSociety in 2022

7. Summary

and Next Steps

8. Authors

APPENDIX I. 23 Technologies Coverage

in IEEE Publications

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F I G U R E S

Table 1. IEEE SWOT ............................................................................ 122

Table 2. Breakdown of who and howwill be benefiting from IEEE CS .................................................123

Table 3. Search keywords summary. ...........................................135

Table 4. Google and IEEE Xplore searchresults combined .............................................................................162

T A B L E S

Figure 1. Landscape of 23 technologies .........................................7

Figure 2. IT ecosystem from supply to demand.........................21

Figure 3. Two integration scenarios: a 2.5D component usinga silicon interposer and a full 3D stack using TSVs. ............34

Figure 4. An integration scenario combining 2.5D integrationof multiple 3D-stacked components. ........................................35

Figure 5. Illustration of the severity of the DRAMcapacitor “trench.” ............................................................................38

Figure 6. Simplified phase-change memory (PCM) celland spin-transfer torque (STT) cell. ...........................................39

Figure 7. Simplified memristor (ReRAM) cell. ............................40

Figure 8. Multicore. many-cores landscape. ..............................44

Figure 10. Rule-of-thumb of using photonics vs. electronicsbased on distance and required bandwidth ...........................48

Figure 11. Roadmap of industrial photonicstechnologies........................................................................................50

Figure 12. A representative switch ASIC pipeline. ...................58

Figure 13. High-performance computing. ..................................64

Figure 14. Comparing classes of HPC and theirfeasibility to deliver in the cloud. .................................................65

Figure 15. Comparison of major drivers. ..................................... 113

Figure 16. Comparison of major disruptors. ..............................114

Figure 17. Coverage of some of the top drivers inIEEE Libraries by individual societies. .....................................117

Figure 18. Coverage of some of the top disruptorsin IEEE Libraries by individual societies ...................................118

Figure 19. The breakdown of 22 technologies byperiodical articles. ............................................................................137

Figure 20. The breakdown of 22 technologies bysponsoring societies. .....................................................................138

Figure 21. The breakdown of security cross-cuttingissues by sponsoring societies. .................................................. 139

Figure 22. The breakdown of open intellectual propertyby sponsoring societies. ...............................................................140

Figure 23. The breakdown of sustainability bysponsoring societies. ......................................................................141

Figure 24. The breakdown of MOOC by sponsoring

societies. .............................................................................................142Figure 25. The breakdown of quantum computing

by sponsoring societies. ...............................................................143

Figure 26. The breakdown of device and nano-technologyby sponsoring societies. ...............................................................144

Figure 27. The breakdown of 3D integrated circuitsby sponsoring societies. ...............................................................145

Figure 28. The breakdown of universal memoryby sponsoring societies. ...............................................................146

Figure 29. The breakdown of muticore bysponsoring societies. ......................................................................147

Figure 30. The breakdown of photonics bysponsoring societies. .....................................................................148

Figure 31. The breakdown of networking andinterconnectivity by sponsoring societies. ............................149

Figure 32. The breakdown of software-definednetworks by sponsoring societies. ...........................................150

Figure 33. The breakdown of HPC by sponsoringsocieties. ..............................................................................................151

Figure 34. The breakdown of cloud computing bysponsoring societies. .....................................................................152

Figure 35. The breakdown of IoT by sponsoringsocieties. .............................................................................................153

Figure 36. The breakdown of natural user interfacesby sponsoring societies. ...............................................................154

Figure 37. The breakdown of 3D printing by

sponsoring societies. .....................................................................155Figure 38. The breakdown of big data analytics

by sponsoring societies. ...............................................................156

Figure 39. The breakdown of machine learning andintelligent systems by sponsoring societies. .........................157

Figure 40. The breakdown of computer vision andpattern analysis by sponsoring societies. ..............................158

Figure 41. The breakdown of life sciences bysponsoring societies. .....................................................................159

Figure 42. The breakdown of computational biologyby sponsoring societies. ...............................................................160

Figure 43. The breakdown of robotics in medicineby sponsoring societies. ................................................................161

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C O N T E N T S

1. INTRODUCTION .........................5

1.1 Goals .................... .................... 6

1.2 Target Audience ................... ..... 6

1.3 Process ..................... ................ 6

1.4 Technologies Landscape ............ 7

1.5 Document Organization ............. 7

2. SEAMLESS INTELLIGENCE

SCENARIO .................................8

3. 23 TECHNOLOGIE S IN 2022 ....... 14

4. DRIVERS AND DISRUPTO RS .....112

5. TECHNOLOGY COVERAGE IN

IEEE XPLORE AND BY

IEEE SOCIETIES .......................1156. IEEE COMPUTER SOCIETY

IN 2022 ..................................120

7. SUMMARY AND NEXT STEPS ....124

8. AUTHORS ...................... .........126


in IEEE Publications ................134

Only a smallfraction of

innovations trulydisrupt the state

of the art.5

1. Introduction

Predicting the future is hard and risky. Predictingthe future in the computer industry is even harderand riskier due to dramatic changes in technologyand limitless challenges to innovation. Only a smallfraction of innovations truly disrupt the state of theart. Some are not practical or cost-effective, someare ahead of their time, and some simply do not

have a market. There are numerous examples ofsuperior technologies that were never adopted be-cause others arrived on time or fared better in themarket. Therefore this document is only an attempt

to better understand where technologies are going.The book Innovators Dilemma and its sequels bestdescribe the process of innovation and disruption.

Nine technical leaders of the IEEE ComputerSociety joined forces to write a technical report,entitled IEEE CS 2022, symbolically surveying23 potential technologies that could change the

landscape of computer science and industry by theyear 2022. In particular, this report focuses on 3Dprinting, big data and analytics, open intellectual

property movement, massive-ly online open courses, securitycross-cutting issues, universalmemory, 3D integrated circuits,photonics, cloud computing, com-putational biology and bioinformat-

ics, device and nanotechnology,sustainability, high-performancecomputing, the Internet of Things,life sciences, machine learning andintelligent systems, natural userinterfaces, networking and inter-connectivity, quantum computing,software-defined networks, multi-core, and robotics for medical care.

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C O N T E N T S

1. INTRODUCTION .........................5

1.1 Goals .................... .................... 6

1.2 Target Audience ................... ..... 6

1.3 Process ..................... ................ 6

1.4 Technologies Landscape ............ 7

1.5 Document Organization ............. 7


SCENARIO .................................8

3. 23 TECHNOLOGIE S IN 2022 ....... 14



IEEE XPLORE AND BY

IEEE SOCIETIES .......................1156. IEEE COMPUTER SOCIETY

IN 2022 ..................................120


8. AUTHORS ...................... .........126



Only a smallfraction of

innovations trulydisrupt the state

of the art.6

1.1 GoalsAs authors, we had the following goals in mindwhen we started writing the document:

• Predict the future technologies that will disruptthe state of the art.

• Help researchers understand the future impactof various technologies.

• Help laymen—a general audience—understandwhere technology is evolving and the implica-tions for human society.

• Help the IEEE Computer Society understandhow it should be organized for this future.

1.2 Target AudienceThis document was intended for computer scienceprofessionals, students, and professors, as well aslaymen interested in technology and technologyuse. It is equally targeted to the members of theComputer Society and similar Societies around theworld, as we dare to predict what kind of futureprofessional society will be best suited to takethese technologies to the next level through its

publications, conferences, communities, standards,courses, and artifacts in support of our professionand humanity.

While we tried to be complete and exhaustive, itis inevitable that some technologies and aspectshave been omitted. Examples include electron-ic money, such as Bitcoin, and various forms oftransportation, such as autonomous vehicles. Alsomissing is the general notion of what technology

contributes to mankind, a question frequentlyasked by those who have seen this material todate. Our premise, echoed in this document, is that

technology is the enabler. What humanity takes outof it really depends on human society.

1.3 ProcessThe core team of nine technologists met twice byphone in preparation for a face-to-face meeting inSeattle, collocated with an IEEE Board of Gover-nors gathering. We brainstormed about possibletechnologies and came up with a list that has sincebeen trimmed. Each team member chose two tothree technology areas to describe, and two mem-bers wrote the scenario.

We describe each of the 23 technologies by follow-ing a common approach—summary of the state ofthe art, challenges, where we think the technologywill go, and its disruption—and tie them into a sce-nario that we call seamless intelligence. Together,they present a similar view of the future.

We held another face-to-face meeting in the IEEEComputer Society’s Washington, DC, office tobrainstorm the future of the IEEE Computer Soci-ety. Ultimately, we are attempting to predict whatkind of future Society will be needed for our pro-fession, for the professionals who will be learning,practicing, and putting into use the technologieswe present here.

Most of our other interaction was by email. In a fewcases, we reverted to technologists outside of our

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We are in a phase

of seamless and ubiquitous

intelligence.

8

C O N T E N T S

1. INTRODUCTION .........................5


SCENARIO .................................8

2.1 Introduction .................... ......... 82.2 State of the Art ......................... 8

2.3 Challenges and Opportunities .... 9

2.4 What Will Likely Happen .......... 12

2.5 Potential Disruptions .............. 12

2.6 Summary ...................... .......... 13

3. 23 TECHNOLOGIE S IN 2022 ....... 14



IEEE XPLORE AND BYIEEE SOCIETIES .......................115

6. IEEE COMPUTER SOCIETY

IN 2022 ..................................120


8. AUTHORS ...................... .........126



2. Seamless

IntelligenceScenario

2.1 IntroductionSince the inception of digital computing in the mid-1940s, society has witnessed a historic revolution inthe acquisition, processing, and communication ofinformation. This revolution has transformed everyaspect of society through increased automation,ubiquitous access to information, and pervasivehuman networking.

2.2 State of the ArtWe continue to witness an increase in the numbers,shapes, and sizes of computing devices, from mi-cro-scale to mega-scale, as well as a combinatorialincrease in connectivity, both local and global. Asa result of this pervasive penetration of computingand communication capabilities, human knowl-edge, intelligence, and connectivity are increasinglyenhanced and augmented by information technol-ogy. By 2022, we project that we will be well into a

phase where intelligence becomes seamless andubiquitous to those who can afford and use state-of-the-art information technology.

This new reality is the expected result of theconfluence of multiple information and commu-nication technologies. Computing devices—fromthe very small, such as wearable devices andchips embedded under the skin, to the comput-ers inside our mobile devices, laptops, desktops,

home servers, TV sets, and refrigerators, to thecomputing cloud that we reach via the Internet—are interconnected via different communicationand networking technologies. Together, theyform an intelligent mesh, a computing and com-munication ecosystem that augments reality withinformation and intelligence gathered from ourfingertips, eyes, ears, and other senses, and evendirectly interfaced to our brain waves.

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1. INTRODUCTION .........................5


SCENARIO .................................8





2.6 Summary ...................... .......... 13

3. 23 TECHNOLOGIE S IN 2022 ....... 14





IN 2022 ..................................120


8. AUTHORS ...................... .........126



2.3 Challenges andOpportunitiesAt the heart of this revolution is seamless

networking, where the transition from onenetwork device to another is transparent anduninterrupted. Various wireless networkingtechnologies—from Near-Field Communi-cation (NFC), to Bluetooth, to Wi-Fi, 4G, and5G—are integrated with high-speed wirednetworking and the Internet, allowing any-where-to-anywhere access. But to achieveseamlessness and realize logical end-to-endconnectivity, we will need communications to runindependently on top of any form of physical net-working, regardless of device or location. Throughvirtualized end-to-end connectivity, total integra-tion of all the ecosystem devices that cater to ourspecific needs can be achieved. This new worldwill require sophisticated intelligent coordinationsoftware; voice, image, and motion recognitionwill transform human–computer interfaces into aseamless interaction between the user and all the

computing devices in that person’s life.Another gap between today and 2022 is seamlessreliance on federated identity and the use of moresophisticated identity technologies. Access will beauthorized based on capabilities and access tokensrather than strictly on identity. Private applicationswill still require strict identity–for example, discov-ering from a specific social network that a specificfriend happens to be at the same café as the user

will require notification of peers about their mutualpresence. But to achieve interoperability, identityfederation will require standards developed by and

agreed upon among identity providers. In addition,meta-identity information will play a major role,capturing a person’s profile and managing pref-erences while, for example, shopping, eating, andtraveling (specifically, a hotel could detect a guest’spreferred type of bed, floor level, or smoking statusand automatically fulfill a reservation accordingly).

Cloud services that offer APIs to facilitate appli-cation mash-ups will lead to intelligent software

that can integrate multiple services together andachieve results that are difficult to imagine today.We see the current power in mashing up locationdata with maps as an illustration of what futuremash-ups might look like.

The combination of powerful voice and facial rec-ognition, massive identity databases, and powerfultracking will likely result in a new norm that po-tentially translates into a significant loss of privacy

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C O N T E N T S

1. INTRODUCTION .........................5


SCENARIO .................................8





2.6 Summary ...................... .......... 13

3. 23 TECHNOLOGIE S IN 2022 ....... 14





IN 2022 ..................................120


8. AUTHORS ...................... .........126



compared to today. Technology will enable manybenefits, but controlling its use and preventing mis-use will require collective social action.

On the other hand, pervasive and massive identityrecognition could also result in myriad benefits,such as cashless and contactless financial transac-tions, the ability to cross borders without stoppingfor inspection, and walking into a coffee shop in aforeign country and having the barista offer up yourfavorite coffee because your preferences appearedon her counter screen as you approached the shop.

The application of seamless and pervasive intel-

ligence will penetrate many aspects of our lives,particularly healthcare. Imagine walking into ahospital and having your entire medical history beaccessible to the attending medical professionalfrom a centrally managed health vault: you won’tneed to state what medications you are current-ly taking or what immunization your child mostrecently received. Progress in 3D printing alreadylets your dentist automatically shape your crownmolding while you wait. Physicians will also be able

to use less invasive procedures, such as having apatient swallow a small camera to track the entiredigestive track without needing to perform an in-cision; medication and medical devices could evenbe customized on the fly.

Seamless and pervasive intelligence is impactingeducation more disruptively. The traditional modelof campus-based education is changing by vir-tue of the availability of better methods for both

teaching and learning, augmented by automatedand interactive learning outside the classroom aswell as through distance participation. By 2022, we

expect that the experiments with MOOCs will leadto a refined model in which they become comple-mentary to ongoing instruction models. We alsoproject that the classroom will involve less instruc-tion and more dialogues with the expert professor,resulting from the ability to use technology to learnoutside the classroom. Students will enjoy learn-ing more, requiring less time and gaining deepercomprehension of their subject material. WhileMOOCs will become part of the education ecosys-

tem, making them effective will be a challenge. Thefuture holds even more for the integration of workand education via augmented reality. As someoneis working, for example, she will get customizedinformation that progressively trains her. This willrevolutionize several sectors, including customercare and the learning of services and products[Saracco].

Progress in robotics will likely transform the way

mass transit is handled today to fully automated,autonomous vehicles. Imagine a driverless taxi, just large enough to accommodate you and yourbaggage, dispatched to your hotel to take you tothe airport, automatically navigating the best routealong the way. Naturally, it already knows yourdeparture terminal from a prior seamless informa-tion exchange. Autonomous vehicles will transformthe topology of urban areas, dynamically creatingone-way streets and preferential lanes. The traffic

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1. INTRODUCTION .........................5


SCENARIO .................................8





2.6 Summary ...................... .......... 13

3. 23 TECHNOLOGIE S IN 2022 ....... 14





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8. AUTHORS ...................... .........126



the differences between the have and have-not na-tions. Nonetheless, underdeveloped countries willcontinue to enjoy access to advances in computing,

particularly the use of inexpensive yet smart mobiledevices. The trend seems to be toward facilitatingfurther social networking rather than real enhance-ment in productivity tools. Furthermore, ubiquitouscomputational and educational services will growever more accessible to any population that meetsthe basic connectivity requirements.

2.4 What Will Likely HappenThe future we want versus the future we do notwant: information and communication technolo-gy is advancing at a pace that is surpassing ourabilities as a society to direct. It is the scale andspeed with which this progress is taking place thatis creating this challenge. But there are choices

that free nations canmake through regu-lation and investmentthat can either lead to

a better world or onethat we do not desire.

Technology is adouble-edged sword.It can be used foradvancing healthcare,education, science,trade, financial ser-vices, social and

political activism, security, and safety, or it can beused for militarization, to invade privacy, and topush the Big Brother phenomenon worldwide, even

in countries that consider and pride themselves onbeing free. In general, any technology has its upsand downs. The man who invented the first shipalso invented the shipwreck and the castaway!This is something that we need to understand.Even if technology is used in the best possibleway, it will still bring along some downsides. It justchanges the landscape, and along with it, the upsand downs [Saracco].

2.5 Potential DisruptionsThe emergence of the mobile smart device sectorin the past decade is likely to continue to disruptthe traditional model of desktops and laptops. Mo-bile applications are also expanding the commonWeb platform by enabling applications on mobiledevices using their operating systems.

On the other end of the computing scale, theemergence of cloud computing primarily based

on commodity server hardware is pushing anddisrupting the traditional server sector, replacingit with computational power as a service over thenetwork.

Another disruptive trend emerging as a resultof the spread of social networking is resulting incountries and regions potentially creating theirown regional Internets with imposed restrictions onaccess to global sites and universal services. This

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1. INTRODUCTION .........................5


SCENARIO .................................8





2.6 Summary ...................... .......... 13

3. 23 TECHNOLOGIE S IN 2022 ....... 14





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8. AUTHORS ...................... .........126



trend can have a negatively disruptive impact onthe global Internet and freedom of individuals toaccess information and services regardless of geo-

graphic locations and political boundaries. There isalso the impact of regulation, such as the differentpositions taken by the US and EU in the area ofpremium connectivity, which is allowed in the USbut not in the EU.

Intellectual property wars among major players inthe industry can present barriers to both the speedof progress and use of technology. Consumers oftechnology will ultimately be the victims of suchwars.

2.6 SummaryBy 2022, computing devices will range from na-no-scale to mega-scale, with advanced networkingenabling access to a world of integrated services.Virtual connectivity will enable the integration ofrelevant computing resources to provide userswith seamless services. The resulting ecosystem

will offer continuous, uninterrupted services thatenhance automation, productivity, collaboration,and access to intelligence and knowledge that will

be available not only at users’ fingertips but acces-sible to all human senses, spontaneously, throughemerging human–computer interfaces.

The benefit of technology is what we make of it.Societies will face further challenges in directingand investing in technologies that benefit human-ity instead of destroying it or intruding on basichuman rights of privacy and freedom of accessto information. We should stop considering tech-nology as something standalone. It is more than a

piece of the quilt of life: it is reshaping it, and beingreshaped itself by humanity. A holistic approach isneeded.

2.6.1 References

[Saracco] Roberto Saracco, the author of COMSOC

2020 Report, Personal Communication.

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C O N T E N T S

1. INTRODUCTION .........................5


SCENARIO .................................8

3. 23 TECHNOLOGIE S IN 2022 ....... 14

3.1 Security Cross-Cutting Issues .......... 14

3.2 The Open Intellectual

Property Movement ...................... 17

3.3 Sustainability ............................... 20

3.4 Massively Online Open Courses ....... 25

3.5 Quantum Computing .................... 28

3.6 Device and Nanotechnology ........... 31

3.7 3D Integrated Circuits .................... 33

3.8 Universal Memory ......................... 38

3.9 Multicore ......................................43

3.10 Photonics ..................................... 47

3.11 Networking and Interconnectivity ..52

3.12 Software-Defined Networks ...........55

3.13 High-Performance Computing

(HPC) ........................................... 63

3.14 Cloud Computing...........................68

3.15 The Internet of Things ...................74

3.16 Natural User Interfaces ..................77

3.17 3D Printing .................................. 81

3.18 Big Data and Analytics .................. 84

3.19 Machine Learning and

Intelligent Systems ....................... 89

3.20 Computer Vision and Pattern

Recognition .................................. 92

3.21 Life Sciences .................................96

3.22 Computational Biology andBioinformatics ............................ 102

3.23 Medical Robotics ......................... 108



IEEE XPLORE AND BY

IEEE SOCIETIES .......................115


IN 2022 ..................................120


8. AUTHORS ...................... .........126



3. 23 Technologies in 2022

3.1 Security Cross-Cutting Issues

3.1.1 Introduction

Powerful forces are converging that are of greatconcern to individuals and private and publicentities. These powerful forces will cause people,

businesses, and groups to pause before releasingcertain information to government, merchants,and even other citizens and to consider the conse-quences of every activity in which they engage.

The first of these forces is the exponential growthof large data repositories (see big data in Section3.18) of personal and corporate information. Thesecond is the enhanced capability to analyze thisdata for various patterns (see data analytics). The

third force is the advancing technological ability

to collect diverse data about citizens, privateand public corporations, and profit and nonprofitentities alike through a variety of channels. Thisdata includes financial transactions, personaland business correspondence, the movementsof people and assets, and personal and businessrelationships. The fourth force is institution/mu-nicipalities and crowd-sourced information. Thismay be the first that will be exploited and will havean impact on society. The final force is the grow-ing ability and determination of malevolent actorsin acquiring information about people, businessentities, and objects such as critical infrastructure.Malevolent actors can include adversarial govern-ment agents, criminals, malcontents, and personalor business enemies.

The convergence of these forces requirestradeoff decisions to be made about privacyversus security. In order to protect individu-als and corporate entities from malevolentactors, governments must monitor personaland business transactions and examineassociations of people with other peopleand with corporations and affinity groups.Governments must track movements of

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C O N T E N T S

1. INTRODUCTION .........................5


SCENARIO .................................8

3. 23 TECHNOLOGIE S IN 2022 ....... 14




3.3 Sustainability ............................... 20






3.9 Multicore ......................................43

3.10 Photonics ..................................... 47




(HPC) ........................................... 63

3.14 Cloud Computing...........................68



3.17 3D Printing .................................. 81





Recognition .................................. 92

3.21 Life Sciences .................................96





IEEE XPLORE AND BY

IEEE SOCIETIES .......................115


IN 2022 ..................................120


8. AUTHORS ...................... .........126



people and goods, monitor the utilization of privateand public resources, and mine data repositories inorder to investigate or predict crimes, all in the in-terest of protecting the public. In allowing govern-ments to conduct these activities, however, individ-uals and corporations must surrender privacy. Howmuch privacy should an individual, a corporation,or an affinity group surrender in order to ensure anacceptable level of security from threats? Shouldthese limits be set legislatively? Is it feasible to pro-tect one’s privacy without legislative support, andwhat tools are available, or need to be available, tomake it possible?

3.1.2 State of the Art

Social networking sites such as Facebook andTwitter can be monitored and predictive analyticsused to investigate crimes or predict the potentialfor crimes. Machine-to-machine networks (seeInternet of Things in Section 3.15) can be used totrack individual products or subsystems of inter-ests using RFID; whole systems and people canbe tracked via GPS, terrestrial imaging, satelliteimaging, black boxes, and other low-technologymeans. Powerful Internet search engines exist,and coupled with the ability to capture, store, andanalyze large amounts of data from surface mailand parcels, email traffic, telephone conversations,financial transactions, consumer purchases, and In-ternet sites visited, government agencies can minethis data and use predictive analytics to spot po-tential threats before they occur or to investigatecrimes. Private entities and malevolent actors mayalso gain access to this information and conduct

their own analytics for commercial or nefariouspurposes. In some cases, such intrusions are lim-ited by law, but the limitations vary by country, arehard to enforce, and offer little protection shouldthe intrusion come from a government agency au-thorized to bypass the limits. Cryptographic meth-ods to protect a user’s privacy exist for some uses,such as OpenPGP for email, but are often hard toconfigure and use, and are sometimes blocked ornot well supported.

3.1.3 Challenges

There is a balance between security and privacy.Citizens, corporations, and other groups accept acertain level of intrusion, provided a certain level ofsecurity is afforded. Every person, corporation, andgroup, however, has a different level of sensitivityto intrusion and a different notion of acceptablesecurity risk.

There are political challenges of fostering publictrust that transactions and movement are safe

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1. INTRODUCTION .........................5


SCENARIO .................................8

3. 23 TECHNOLOGIE S IN 2022 ....... 14




3.3 Sustainability ............................... 20






3.9 Multicore ......................................43

3.10 Photonics ..................................... 47




(HPC) ........................................... 63

3.14 Cloud Computing...........................68



3.17 3D Printing .................................. 81





Recognition .................................. 92

3.21 Life Sciences .................................96





IEEE XPLORE AND BY

IEEE SOCIETIES .......................115


IN 2022 ..................................120


8. AUTHORS ...................... .........126



without being overly intrusive. Commercial orga-nizations, such as Internet service providers, havelittle incentive to provide and support privacy-en-hancement tools, and in some cases, are underpressure from regulators to avoid changes that will

block law enforcement agencies from accessingprivate communications.

3.1.4 Where We Think It Will Go

Citizens and corporate entities and groups havealways accepted a certain level of intrusion in orderto ensure some level of security. Technological ad-vances have simply focused more attention on thisproblem. If governments can show that real securi-ty is achieved through surrendering a certain levelof privacy, then new technological advancementsthat can perform accurate predictive and forensicanalytics will be embraced in exchange for a cer-tain level of privacy being sacrificed. On the otherhand, consumer demand for privacy-enhancingtools may lead to changes that make it easier forindividuals to protect their privacy, perhaps at thecost of some effort and inconvenience.

3.1.5 Potential DisruptionsAccess to vast quantities of personal informationeither in one repository (e.g. the Affordable Health-care Database) or through aggregation of multipledatabases creates an irresistible target for hackers.If infiltrated, no one can safely depend on their ownidentity being protected or can trust the identity ofanyone else with whom they engage in a person-al or business transaction. The public may rebel

against any increases in intrusion if the benefit ofincreased security is not demonstrated.

3.1.6 Summary

The growth of large data repositories of personal

information, where data from many sources maybe aggregated, combined with data analytics thatenable deduction of surprisingly detailed patternsof information regarding individuals and groups,has opened a Pandora ’s Box of privacy issues.Privacy intrusions can come from both authorizedsources such as law enforcement and corporationsthat have been explicitly granted permission, aswell as malevolent actors such as identity thieves.We face a tradeoff among privacy, security, andconvenience. Changes in laws and improvementsin privacy-enhancement tools and techniques maybe needed to help users find a balance betweenthe degree of intrusion they can tolerate and thesecurity they desire.

3.1.7 ReferencesW. Diffie and S.E. Landau, Privacy on the Line: The Poli-tics of Wiretapping and Encryption, MIT Press, 2007.

S. Landau, “Politics, Love, and Death in a World of NoPrivacy,” IEEE Security & Privacy , vol. 11, no. 3, 2013, pp.11-13.

I. Goldberg, “Privacy-Enhancing Technologies for theInternet III: Ten Years Later,” Digital Privacy: Theory,Technologies, and Practices, Auerbach, 2007, pp. 3–18.

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SCENARIO .................................8

3. 23 TECHNOLOGIE S IN 2022 ....... 14




3.3 Sustainability ............................... 20






3.9 Multicore ......................................43

3.10 Photonics ..................................... 47




(HPC) ........................................... 63

3.14 Cloud Computing...........................68



3.17 3D Printing .................................. 81





Recognition .................................. 92

3.21 Life Sciences .................................96





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3.2 The Open IntellectualProperty Movement

3.2.1 Introduction

Open intellectual property (IP), such as that foundin open source software, open standards, and open

access publishing (along with crowd-sourcing asa means of producing information) is a significantpositive byproduct of the ubiquity of the WorldWide Web. It is rapidly expanding into areas whereproperty was traditionally proprietary, such ashardware design. Continued growth of the openIP movement will continue to generate significantbenefits to humankind.

But along with these benefits come significantchallenges and risks, including security and trust,motivation for innovators, and diminishment ofindividuality.


Open IP is information contained in freely accessiblerepositories in which volunteers, often in very largenumbers, produce and vet the content. Users of thisinformation also provide feedback to the communi-ty, driving innovation, correcting errors, and acting

as a police force to ensure that the content is notmaliciously corrupted. The IP is generated for thebeneficial use of humankind and is often covered bythe well-known Creative Commons license.

Open IP can be found in the form of information

repositories (e.g., Wikipedia), open source software(e.g., Linux), media repositories (e.g., Flickr), openaccess publishing (e.g., Public Library of Science),open systems (e.g., World Wide Web), protocols(e.g., TCP/IP), programming languages (e.g., Ada),open hardware standards (e.g., USB), and evenhardware designs (e.g., Open Compute Project)and 3D models for home printing (e.g., Blendswap).

Much of the intellectual underpinnings of the

open IP movement can be found in The Wisdomof Crowds [Surowiecki]. Surowiecki argues thatthese crowd-driven movements are less subjectto political forces and more dependent on ex-pert knowledge, are necessarily more well-co-ordinated, and more trust is established thanin plan-driven IP development by hierarchicalteams. Interestingly, even the prerequisite initialfunding for costly projects is now often obtainedvia crowd-funding. This further democratizes and

expands the range of available open IP, whichtraditionally was limited on the higher end to afew organizations with appropriate resourcesand inclinations to share their results.

All crowd-sourcing applications, such as the afore-mentioned open IP ones, have four basic elements:a division of labor, computing and communicationstechnology, a crowd of human workers, and a labormarket [Grier]. Social media such as Facebook,

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3.3 Sustainability ............................... 20






3.9 Multicore ......................................43

3.10 Photonics ..................................... 47




(HPC) ........................................... 63

3.14 Cloud Computing...........................68



3.17 3D Printing .................................. 81





Recognition .................................. 92

3.21 Life Sciences .................................96





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Twitter, Digg, and others provide a ready platformfor other kinds of open information applications.For example, social media information has beenused to create contemporaneous trouble-spotmaps and help relief agencies share information in

response to disasters (Gao et al.). Large numbersof volunteer participants using community sites(e.g., PatientsLikeMe) have collaborated to sharepersonal information in the creation of the medicaldata used for disease research and epidemiology(Reidl and Reidl). And crowd-sourcing has beenused to maintain contemporaneously accuratemaps and to translate large quantities of text fromone language to another. There are also variousentertainment applications of crowd-source-like

communities, such as in massively multiplayergames and in the creation of artistic and educa-tional works. Similarly, there have been educationalbenefits from the proliferation of crowd-sourcedclasses online.

3.2.3 Challenges

Safety, truth, and accuracy: Is the informationcontained in open information repositories (e.g.,

Wikipedia) true? Is the open source softwaredownloaded for use in a critical application safe touse, or does it contain a critical defect or a securityflaw? Eric Raymond, one of the fathers of the opensource software movement, contends that “withenough eyes, all bugs are shallow,” but this obser-vation isn’t always correct. Crowds can be fooled,and collective intelligence can be wrong [Cox].

If open information creation displaces commercial

information creation, what incentives are therefor individuals to contribute? Not every human isaltruistically motivated, and it is unlikely that some-one can earn a living through the micropaymentsoffered by some crowd-based initiatives. When

information creators forego a copyright, there is ablurring of public-private relationships, and somemeasure of individuality is lost.

The distributed and often unchecked nature ofthe crowd-sourced worker can also lead to mis-takes, cheating, and poor-quality work. Whilecrowd-sourcing has built-in mechanisms forwork-checking and fault-tolerance, these mecha-nisms are imperfect (Grier).

Ostensibly beneficial open intellectual movementscould actually be ruses designed to trick humanworkers for some nefarious purposes. There areinstances of such ruses being perpetrated already,for example, the notorious “Captcha Busting Tro- jan,” in which a game was used to trick users intosolving Captcha puzzles that were actually intend-ed to thwart automated email account generation.Such an approach could be used to, say, recruit an

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3.3 Sustainability ............................... 20






3.9 Multicore ......................................43

3.10 Photonics ..................................... 47




(HPC) ........................................... 63

3.14 Cloud Computing...........................68



3.17 3D Printing .................................. 81





Recognition .................................. 92

3.21 Life Sciences .................................96





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8. AUTHORS ...................... .........126



army of volunteers who think they are working onsome important mathematical problem into usingbrute-force techniques to crack passwords on asecure site.

Another large arena challenged by the open IP

trend is legal. There is the obvious conflict withlaws to protect IP from sharing and use, such astrademark and patent laws. Already, several nota-ble examples exist where open IP was challengedin court (e.g., the SCO versus IBM lawsuit overLinux). As open data encompasses more and morefields, such as the ability to freely print 3D modelsat home, legal challenges will range from liabil ityover manufactured parts (including weapons) toownership of their design. Current copyright lawscan limit the rights over a 3D model but are illequipped to address the rights over the resultingphysical output.


Open IP generation will be very successful incertain niches, for example, encyclopedias, openstandards, and open programming language. It willbe only partially successful in certain niches (e.g.,

open access publishing, open source software).Open IP movements may fail in other domains.

3.2.5 Potential Disruptions

For certain market segments, it might be impos-sible for the free market to compete with openinformation counterparts, for example, in academicpublishing, and we may see the end of the tradi-tional paid-for scholarly journal.

Open IP could dramatically accelerate innovation,information dissemination, and quality of life im-provements (particularly in disadvantaged nations).On the hardware side, open designs could acceler-ate technological developments and lower prices

for devices from the hobbyist’s toys to high-endservers.

The open movement could also greatly change theway society views IP ownership as it shifts fromprivate to public.

A “scandal” involving flawed information in open IP(either through mistake or deliberate malfeasance)could cause a major disaster that calls into ques-tion the entire open information movement. The le-

gal system has yet to adapt to the rapidly changingreality of open IP, and we may risk bottleneckingthe promised progress in litigation and paperwork.

3.2.6 Summary

The open IP movement has moved beyond an ex-perimental phase and will be a permanent fixture insociety. How impactful this movement will be maylargely depend on government actions or inactions

regarding the treatment of this property; it mightalso be subject to the chaotic events of fate.

3.2.7 References

L.P. Cox, “Truth in Crowdsourcing,” IEEE Security &Privacy, vol. 9, no. 5, 2011, pp. 74-76.

G. Huiji, G. Barbier, and R. Goolsby, “Harnessing theCrowdsourcing Power of Social Media for DisasterRelief,” IEEE Intelligent Systems, vol. 26, no. 3, 2011, pp.10-14

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3.3 Sustainability ............................... 20






3.9 Multicore ......................................43

3.10 Photonics ..................................... 47




(HPC) ........................................... 63

3.14 Cloud Computing...........................68



3.17 3D Printing .................................. 81





Recognition .................................. 92

3.21 Life Sciences .................................96





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D.A. Grier, “Not for All Markets,” Computer , vol. 44, no. 5,2011, pp. 6-8.

J. Riedl and E. Riedl, “Crowdsourcing Medical Re-search,” Computer , vol. 46, no. 1, 2013, pp. 89-92.

J. Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds, Random House

Digital, 2005.

3.3 Sustainability

3.3.1 Introduction

Sustainability in computer science is defined as ameans of maintaining/preserving resources in ITservice delivery to users. It is a confluence of sup-ply and demand, where the IT ecosystem plays animportant role (see Figure 2) [12].

Multiple Earth resources are the focus of sustain-ability. Electricity (gas, coal, etc.), for example, iscritical in many datacenters, not only because itcontributes to operational costs, but also becauseit impacts overall sustainability. The more powerused from renewable energy sources, the moresustainable operations will be.

Water is used both to cool datacenters and to pro-duce equipment. In certain areas, it is a scarce re-source and must be handled with a lot of care—forexample, in the Middle East and India. In some cas-es, water can be contaminated during the process

and require treatment. Carbon is produced whenburning fuel and needs to be removed by plants.Materials (steel aluminum, etc.) used during theproduction of various pieces of equipment must berecycled or otherwise contribute to ever-increasinggarbage dumps. Global warming is a result of heat-ing and cooling datacenters, in addition to otherfactors, and can have detrimental consequencesto the Earth, especially as temperatures and waterlevels rise.

There are three aspects of sustainability in computersystems: economical , the financial impact of energyspent running CPUs, memory, networking, storage,etc.; environmental , the impact on the environment,such as how much CO

2 is spent or how much water

is used in running datacenters; and social , summariz-ing the impact on the area where computer systemsare executing, for example, the GDP of the region,stability of the region, any temporary influences, such

as earthquakes, tsunamis, etc.


Today, sustainability-aware technologists prefer toconsider cradle-to-cradle design, that is, resourceconsumption from a product’s inception to itsretirement. This includes all resources used to shipthe product, its usage throughout its lifetime, andfinally the recycling of it.

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3.3 Sustainability ............................... 20






3.9 Multicore ......................................43

3.10 Photonics ..................................... 47




(HPC) ........................................... 63

3.14 Cloud Computing...........................68



3.17 3D Printing .................................. 81





Recognition .................................. 92

3.21 Life Sciences .................................96





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8. AUTHORS ...................... .........126



Standards have increas-ing importance in abidingby “green” energy usageguidelines, disposing of ma-terials, and recycling equip-

ment that is obsolete.Technology can help inthis regard by turning offinfrastructure when it is notused or energy proportion-ate, optimizing the load bymoving it around the data-center to minimize energyconsumption.

Sustainability can beachieved at all levels of thesystem, from savings in ma-terials, such as NVM mem-ories or photonics, whichhave much lower power consumption comparedto DRAMs and electronic interconnects, to makingtradeoffs in hardware architecture, including usingdark silicon, which enables only parts of systems tobe turned on, to using intelligent migration of virtu-

al machines to enable consolidation and poweringdown parts of unused datacenters, all the wayup to giving applications and services intelligentplacement and design policies to enable optimalutilization.

3.3.3 Challenges

With the increasing population growth (3 billionmore consumers predicted by 2030 [14]) and

number of users connected to the Internet (expect-ed to be near 3 billion by 2025 [15]), energy con-sumption will also rise. North America and WesternEurope are saturated in terms of Internet usersand mobile phones, but we can expect growth in

continental China and India, South Asia, Africa, andSouth America. The amount of data produced islarger than the Moore’s law equivalent in process-ing, and the Internet of Things will introduce addi-tional data produced computer-to-computer anddevice-to-computer.

At the same time, scaling of technology, particular-ly for CPUs, has all but stopped, and new ways ofusing parallelism have been adopted. In the past,

Figure 2. IT ecosystem from supply to demand.

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3.3 Sustainability ............................... 20






3.9 Multicore ......................................43

3.10 Photonics ..................................... 47




(HPC) ........................................... 63

3.14 Cloud Computing...........................68



3.17 3D Printing .................................. 81





Recognition .................................. 92

3.21 Life Sciences .................................96





IEEE XPLORE AND BY

IEEE SOCIETIES .......................115


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8. AUTHORS ...................... .........126



power was almost free and not on most people’sminds. With increasing power consumption re-quirements, datacenters are now built near powerplants or where ambient cooling reduces theircooling costs. Yet datacenter cooling still affects

global warming. The increasing power consumptionof hardware components has led to more powercapping. Computer manufacturers have started tothink upfront about recycling the materials used toproduce IT devices. Computers are frequently as-sembled in areas where they will be sold or at hubswhere the energy required to deliver equipment tocustomers is optimized.

However, the same production processes can beoptimized in many other industries. Transportingcomputing products is the same as any other good.The opportunity to use technology in these areasare vast, such as deploying intelligent and sustain-able data sensors, educating professionals, buildingand deploying sustainable resources into ecosys-tems to oversee processes, etc. [13].


First and foremost, sustainability awareness is

required at all levels. Technology can substantiallyhelp in many areas of productivity, making process-es much more sustainable. Once sustainability canbe measured, it can be controlled.

The second issue is the regulations and incentivesgovernments can introduce to both prevent com-panies and individuals from malpractice in terms ofsustainability and to encourage them to improvesustainability of their business.

Of most interest is power capping and power-driv-en management, the ability to think in terms of howmuch energy a program will consume, not just howlong it will execute. For this to happen, more de-tailed instrumentation is required, to help software

systems make policy decisions.In addition, the increased configurability found inhardware, such as turning off parts of computersand using dark silicon, will enable better optimi-zation in specific applications. For example, theexistence of different CPUs (powerful or less pow-erful), GPGPUs, accelerators, FPGAs, etc., can beoptimized for different applications, enabling betterpower utilization for different applications at differ-ent times and overall aggregate sustainability.

3.3.5 Potential Disruptions

There are several opportunities for disruptiveimprovement to sustainability. Frequently, it isthe new or improved use of existing technologiesthat becomes disruptive. End-to-end resourcemanagement in manufacturing is one of the ob-vious examples. While it has been approached incomputer equipment manufacturing, it has yet to

be widely adopted in other areas of manufactur-ing and industries. There is a huge potential forconscious and sustainable approach to resourcemanagement.

One specific example of resource management isin sustainable or smart cities. The use of the In-ternet of Things further improves the benefits ofsmart cities, by enabling innovation at many levels.New environmental approaches to cooling with

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1. INTRODUCTION .........................5


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3.3 Sustainability ............................... 20






3.9 Multicore ......................................43

3.10 Photonics ..................................... 47




(HPC) ........................................... 63

3.14 Cloud Computing...........................68



3.17 3D Printing .................................. 81





Recognition .................................. 92

3.21 Life Sciences .................................96





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IN 2022 ..................................120


8. AUTHORS ...................... .........126



zero-energy datacenters combine solar energywith careful datacenter management, for example.

Electronic cars are another obvious disruptivetechnology whose benefits are in terms of re-duced pollution and eliminating non-renewable

energy sources. Remaining issues include the lackof acceleration (even though Tesla’s line of carsaddresses this), refueling time, battery capacity,and lifetime.

Light-emitting diodes (LEDs) are another exam-ple of an existing technology that can disrupt thefuture in terms of sustainability. Today’s LEDs areused in automotive lighting (traffic lights, cars,planes, etc.) and are not widely deployed for gen-

eral-purpose lightning. However, they have theadvantage of being incandescent light sources interms of lower energy consumption, small sizes,robustness, quick switching times, long lifetimes,etc. Once the cost is reduced and voltage/currencycontrol improved, they could have a sustainableadvantage of fluorescent lighting.

Consumer energy storage, new types of batteries(silicon anode; lithium iron phosphate), and renew-

able energies, including increased solar energyuse and biofuels, can be disruptive technologiesimpacting many industries. Improved consumerand home energy management have many savingsopportunities. Appliance lifecycle assessment toolscould predict when it is more sustainable to replacethem; smart appliances can react and adjust to thegrid disturbances and price changing to optimizeconsumption and cost; and a similar impact can beachieved by facilities energy management.

Another potential disruption is new generations ofchips based on graphene and on metalferroids. Inboth cases, there might be a three-order magni-tude reduction in power consumption [16].

3.3.6 SummaryThere are many ways how technology can helpimprove sustainability. Big data analytics (seeSection 3.18) and Internet of Things (see Section3.15) will further enable and automate sustain-able processes. Satellites sending images of airpollution could enable quick detection and earlyprevention. Governance, standards, and increasedawareness will also help from the oversight andprocess perspective. Holistic approaches, such ascradle-to-cradle, will be increasing required. Forexample, it is estimated that there will be over 6billion phones by 2017—only a holistic approachwill be able to address this electronic waste. At thesame time, cloud computing will help with reducingand optimizing power consumption through con-solidating resources, and social media platforms,such as Twitter, can quickly increase public aware-ness in case of violations.

Sustainability has become an important factor inindustry and public awareness. It has been sub-stantially improved, but the growing needs areincreasing a gap with the available reserves ofwater, energy, materials, and greenhouse gases.Therefore, humanity needs to continue and evenincrease sustainability to protect our future.

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3.3 Sustainability ............................... 20






3.9 Multicore ......................................43

3.10 Photonics ..................................... 47




(HPC) ........................................... 63

3.14 Cloud Computing...........................68



3.17 3D Printing .................................. 81





Recognition .................................. 92

3.21 Life Sciences .................................96





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3.3.7 References[1] X. Fan et al., “Power Provisioning for a Ware-

house-sized Computer,” ISCA, ACM, 2007.[2] P. Mahadevan et al., “A Power Benchmarking

Framework for Networking devices,” IFIP Network-ing Conf., 2009.

[3] C. Belady et al., “Green Grid Data Center PowerEfficiency Metrics: PUE AND DCIE,” White Paper 6,The Green Grid. 2008.

[4] R. Sharma et al., “Water Efficiency Management inData Centers: Metrics and Methodology,” ISSST ,2009.

[5] R. Silliman, “Vendor Survey Analysis: Benchmark-ing Hardware Support Operations, N. Am., 2009,”ID Number G00165983.

[6] C.D. Patel et al., “Energy Flow in the Information

Technology Stack,” Proc. IMECE , 2006.[7] “The Ecoinvent v2 Database,” PRé Consultants;

http://www.pre.nl/ecoinvent/default.htm .[8] T.J. Breen et al., “From Chip to Cooling Tower

Data Center Modeling: Part I, Influence of ServerInlet Temperature and Temperature Rise acrossCabinet,” Proc. IEEE Intersociety Conf. Thermaland Thermomechanical Phenomena in Electronic

Systems (ITHERM), 2008.[9] M. Manos and C. Belady, “What’s Your PUE Strat-

egy?,” 2008; http://blogs.msdn.com/the_ pow-er_of_software/archive/2008/07/07/part-3-what-s-your-pue-strategy.aspx.

[10] World Bank World Development Indictors (WDI)database, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator .

[11] W. Adams, “The Future of Sustainability: Re-think-ing Environment and Development in the Twen-ty-first Century,” Report of the IUCN RenownedThinkers Meeting, 2006.

[12] C. Patel, “Sustainable Ecosystems: Enabled bySupply and Demand Management,” M.K. Aguilera

et al., eds., Proc. ICDCN 2011, LNCS 6522, 2011, pp.12-28.

[13] NSF Cyberinfrastructure for 21st Century Scienceand Engineering (CIF21), Advanced ComputingInfrastructure, Vision and Strategic Plan. 2012.

[14] McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey Sustainability& Resource Productivity Practice , Resource Revo-lution: Meeting the World’s Energy, Materials, Food,

and Water Needs, 2011.[15] McKinsey Global Institute, “Disruptive Technolo-

gies: Advances that Will Transform Life, Business,and the Global Economy,” 2013.[16] Saracco, Personal Communication.

http://www.pre.nl/ecoinvent/default.htmhttp://blogs.msdn.com/b/the_power_of_software/archive/2008/07/07/part-3-what-s-your-pue-strategy.aspxhttp://blogs.msdn.com/b/the_power_of_software/archive/2008/07/07/part-3-what-s-your-pue-strategy.aspxhttp://blogs.msdn.com/b/the_power_of_software/archive/2008/07/07/part-3-what-s-your-pue-strategy.aspxhttp://data.worldbank.org/indicatorhttp://data.worldbank.org/indicatorhttp://blogs.msdn.com/b/the_power_of_software/archive/2008/07/07/part-3-what-s-your-pue-strategy.aspxhttp://blogs.msdn.com/b/the_power_of_software/archive/2008/07/07/part-3-what-s-your-pue-strategy.aspxhttp://blogs.msdn.com/b/the_power_of_software/archive/2008/07/07/part-3-what-s-your-pue-strategy.aspxhttp://www.pre.nl/ecoinvent/default.htm

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3.3 Sustainability ............................... 20






3.9 Multicore ......................................43

3.10 Photonics ..................................... 47




(HPC) ........................................... 63

3.14 Cloud Computing...........................68



3.17 3D Printing .................................. 81





Recognition .................................. 92

3.21 Life Sciences .................................96





IEEE XPLORE AND BY

IEEE SOCIETIES .......................115


IN 2022 ..................................120


8. AUTHORS ...................... .........126



3.4 Massively Online Open Courses1

3.4.1 Introduction

Often drawing tens of thousands of students toa single section, massively open online courses(MOOCs) offer free, high-quality, university coursecontent to anyone with Internet access. Requir-ing only a computer and Internet access to enroll,MOOCs can be used for continuing educationcourses and credit-bearing undergraduate courses,

leading to degree programs and even graduationeducation.

The prospect of achieving huge economies ofscale is alluring to deans and college presidents.World-renowned scholars can reach immenseaudiences. High-quality courses can be deliveredto heretofore underserved and remote populations,particularly in disadvantaged countries, havingenormous societal impact. These “universities with-

out walls” have the potential to transform highereducation. But there are significant unresolvedissues relating to educational quality and financialsustainability.


A MOOC has two basic models. The first involvesWeb-based and emailed course content, with

1 Some of this article is adapted from Laplante 2013 with permission.

assessment achieved through automated exams.A notable example is Circuits & Electronics, one ofthe first MOOCs offered through EdX. The second“connective” learning model has less structureand content. The learning presumably occurs via

crowd-sourced interactions through blogs, thread-ed discussion boards, and email. In either model,graduate assistants might moderate the interac-tions and answer questions, but instructor-initiatedinteraction is rare—if not nonexistent.

While online or remote delivery of college coursecontent has been available for many decades,MOOCs differ in terms of scale and no-cost. Mas-sive enrollments allow world-class faculty and cur-ricula to be accessible to anyone. MOOCs can betaken anywhere that has Internet access, includingsparsely populated areas, and those locationswhere it would be impractical to build a physicalu

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