2021 U.S. Livestock and Poultry Outlook

Presented By

Seanicaa E. Herron

World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA

USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum

February 19, 2021

Total Red Meat And Poultry Production Record Large In 2021

• Total red meat and poultry production up 1 percent in 2021.

• Beef, pork, broiler sectors are positioned for higher production.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Billi

on P

ound

s

Beef Pork Poultry* Other

+1.0%

Per Capita Disappearance, Retail Basis

• Per capita disappearance projected to reach 224.8 pounds in 2021.

• Down fractionally from 2020.

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50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Poun

ds, R

etai

l Wei

ght

Beef Pork Broiler Turkey Other

-0.1%

Feed Cost Outlook

• Corn: $3.56 per bushel in 2019/20$4.30 per bushel in 2020/21$4.20 per bushel in 2021/22

• SBM: $299.50 per ton in 2019/20$400 per ton in 2020/21$390 per ton in 2021/22

Meat Exports Increasingly Important

Poultry = Broilers & Turkey

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5.0

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8.0

9.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Billi

ons P

ound

s

Beef Pork Poultry

Livestock & Poultry Prices Forecast Higher

• Livestock and poultry prices forecast higher on recovering demand in 2021.

• Egg prices virtually unchanged

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-30

-20

-10

0

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30

40

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Yr/Y

r Per

cent

Cha

nge

Cattle Hogs Broilers Turkeys Eggs

January 1 Cattle Inventory

• U.S. cattle herd declined for the second year.

• 93.6 million head as of Jan. 1, 2021, down 0.2 percent year-over.

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105

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2021

2022

F

Mill

ion

Head

Beef Cow Herd, Calf-crop Decreases

• Beef cow herd down 1 percent at 31.2 million head.

• 2020 calf-crop estimated at 35.1 million head, 1 percent smaller than 2019 calf-crop.

• Rate of decline expected to slow as producers retain approximately the same level of replacement heifers as 2020. 25

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2021

Mill

ion

Head

Beef Cows Calf-crop* (2020)

Beef Production Forecast Record High In 2021

• 2021 beef production is forecast to reach 27.5 billion pounds.

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Billi

on P

ound

s

+1.4%

Beef Exports Forecast to Increase In 2021

• Beef exports forecast to reach 3.1 billion pounds this year.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Billi

on P

ound

s

+6.4%

Cattle Prices Forecast Higher In 2021

$80

$90

$100

$110

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$160

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

$/CW

T

5-area steer price

+5.8%

Hog Inventories, Breeding Herd Lower On December 1, 2020

• All hogs and pigs estimated at 77.5 million head, down 1 percent from the previous year.

• Breeding herd estimated at 6.3 million head, down 3 percent from 2019.

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80.0

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Bree

ding

Her

d

Dec

1 Ho

g In

vent

ory

Hog Inventory Dec 1 Breeding Herd

Producer Farrowing Intentions Mixed

*Forecast - 2021 Q1 & Q2 reported intentions. Q3 & Q4 forecasts.

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QI QII QIII QIV

2018 2019 2020 2021F

+2.0%-1.0%

Pigs Per Litter Increasing

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11.520

11 II III IV20

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21F II III IV

Head

Pork Production Forecast Record High in 2021

• Pork production is forecast to reach 28.7 billion pounds in 2021.

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35

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Billi

on P

ound

s

+1.4%

Pork Exports Lower in 2021

• Pork exports are forecast at 7.2 billion pounds, down 1.5 percent year over.

• Rapid growth in import demand from China is expected to slow in 2021 as China begins to recover from African Swine Fever (ASF).

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8.020

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2021

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Billi

on P

ound

s

-1.5%

Hog Prices Forecast Higher in 2021

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

$/CW

T

National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean

+16.9%

Broiler Laying Flock Above 2019 Levels

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mill

ion

Bird

s

2018 2019 2020

Chick Placements Lower in early 2021

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1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Mill

ion

Bird

s

U.S. Total Chicks Placed

2018 2019 2020 2021

Heavier Bird Weights Support Increased Production in 2021

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Poun

ds, A

vg L

ivew

eigh

t

2019 2020 2021

Broiler Production Forecast Record High in 2021

• Broiler production is forecast to reach 44.9 billion pounds this year.

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Billi

on P

ound

s

+0.7%

Broiler Exports Forecast To Reach 7.4 Billion pounds

• Broiler meat exports are forecast to increase fractionally to 7.4 billion pounds in 2021.

• supported by continued import demand from China and gradual recovery of global economic conditions.

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5.8

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Billi

on P

ound

s

+0.3%

Broiler Prices Forecast Higher In 2021

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F

Cent

s Per

Pou

nd

National composite weighted avg.

+15.4

Turkey Poult Placements Below Year-Ago

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mill

ion

Bird

s

2018 2019 2020 2021

Turkey Eggs In Incubators Below Year-Ago

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mill

ion

Eggs

2018 2019 2020 2021

Turkey Production Fractionally Lower in 2021

• Turkey production for 2021 is forecast to reach 5.7 billion pounds, down fractionally (0.3 percent) from 2020.

• Recent hatchery data points towards lower production levels in the months ahead as placements remain below year prior levels.

• Rising feed costs in the second half of the year will keep turkey production in a steady state.

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6.1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Billi

on P

ound

s

-0.3%

Turkey Exports Slightly Higher in 2021

• In 2021, turkey exports are forecast slightly higher on recovering global demand.

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Billi

on P

ound

s

+0.6%

Turkey Prices Forecast Higher In 2021

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120

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Cent

s Per

Pou

nd

National Turkey Hen Price

+4.0%

Egg Production Forecast Higher In 2021

• Total U.S. egg production for 2021 is forecast to be 9.3 billion dozen, up nearly 1 percent,

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1.00

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Billi

on D

ozen

Table Hatching

+0.8%

Egg Price Forecast Slightly Lower in 2021

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190

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Cent

s Per

Doz

en

New York wholesale egg price

-0.4%

Additional information about USDA outlook is available at the following websites:

• World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

• www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm

• Economic Research Service (ERS)Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Situation and Outlook

• https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/?page=1&topicId=0&authorId=0&seriesCode=LDPM&sort=CopyrightDate&sortDir=desc

• Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

• http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade