2020 Vision

or,

it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future

Futurology:

the study and forecasting of the future, with predictions based on the likely

outcomes of current trends- encarta

images from harry potter lexicon

“In any forecasting project it’s always good to start by making it clear that

most things will be the same.

Look at any 10 year time-span and most things are mostly the same

before and after.”

- Russell Davies

http://russelldavies.typepad.com/planning/account_planning_school_of_the_web/page/3/

a lot can happen in ten years…

• 2000fair trade bananas in co-op stores

• 2001human genome sequenced

• 2003hybrid cars

• 2004facebook

• 2005youtube

• 2007iphone launched

the big picture

“There's an important shift towards local. Clever people everywhere see that if it's

shipped in on fossil fuel it's likely to not be there in 20 years or so. Maybe 5, who

knows.

So that's local, barter economy, local currencies and a tectonic shift against the

corporation and banks.”

- Charles Frith

http://www.charlesfrith.com /

“So its likely that the future is a mix of what we want, what we want to be, what we cant do without, what we can't admit we can't do without and cutting out the

stuff where we're reliant on the institutions that provide them.

Its slow moving but its undeniable.” - Charles Frith

http://www.charlesfrith.com

demographics

UK population

• We know that the demographic landscape of the UK will shift considerably over the next 10 years

• The UK population is projected to grown by over 4M by 2018

• 55% natural increase (more births than deaths)

• 45% net migration

source: ONS

by 2013:

by 2013:

What might this mean?

• By 2020 a third of us will be living alone (Future Foundation)

• Children living with both biological parents in the same household will be in the minority

• More twenty and thirty somethings living at home

• Home extensions

• Multigenerational living

• Personalised space – bedsits with own technology and relaxation space

People working longer in order to

pay for the cost of living

Switch to part time

Customer service benefits

images from B&Q

technology

What’s next?

?15 years

photo by rewindmuseum

Digital Natives

“The generations becoming adults between now and 2020 are the first to grow up with the internet and global communication as a fundamental part of their everyday lives”

– Rob Mortimer www.ad-pit.com

Digital Natives vs. Digital Immigrants

“There’s a dividing line between those under the age of about 25ish and those above. Those above will still respond to traditional ‘above the line’ interruption communications, but the under 25s just don’t consume media that way. They’re used to being in control and doing stuff in a multi platform way”

- Andrew Hovells, (Northern Planner) http://joymachine.typepad.com/northern_planner/

Screens and chips

convergenc

e

Digital multitaskin

g

Solo viewing

On demand

The Digital

Home

photo by obliterated on flickr

Toget

her

but

apart

photo by wfryer on flickr

engaging with friends and family

Sacrificing on other forms of entertainment in order to spend on technology

75% increase in technology sales over the last decade

Homedulg

ence

source: LSN Global (via Andrew Hovells), photo by harmoney on flickr

Multiscreen trends

found via Paul Mallett http://paulmallett.wordpress.com

Intelligen

ce &

connectivi

ty turns

products

into

services

via Paul Mallett http://paulmallett.wordpress.com

Trends cross cultural and geographical boundaries increasingly fast

People spending more time online

Conversing / doing things with people who are geographically remote

Global Village

image from dou_ble_you on flickr

Post multitasking

Skimming the surface of incoming data, picking out the relevant details, and moving on to the next stream

Yearning for

silence

and/or

Wanting to get

to the bottom

of things

Continuo

us

partial

attention

image via playsoft

slide loaned from presentation at neilperkin.typepad.com

slide loaned from presentation at neilperkin.typepad.com

slide loaned from presentation at neilperkin.typepad.com

Social shopping / team buying

Friend/peer recommendation

Buying is a visual, emotive process

‘me tail’

Monetising?

Evoluti

on of

social

networ

ks

Vigilante consumersVigilante consumers

• The consumer manipulates marketers and the marketplace through pressure, protest and politics:– Twitter vs. Daily Mail re Stephen Gately article

results in 22,000 complaints to PCC– Old man vs. tube worker – apology,

investigation, worker resigned

consumer/retail trends

Source: Internet retail trends 2010: Ten actions for your business’, Verdict Consulting/Webloyalty

Rapid

growth in

online

retailing set

to slow in

next 5 years

Likely to

average 11%

as market

matures

Catalogues

not going

away

-Quality

-Shelf life

-convenience

-Browse vs.

order

BUT don’t

repeat mail

Flick and Click

Sustainable mail order

•Recycled

•Recyclable

•Minimising waste

•Tobi.com – ‘love an ugly box’

•Lush popcornphoto by tobi.com

Super loyal

VsSavvy

Eroding the

middle ground

the new

brand loyalt

y

Instant gratificati

on

photo from psfk.com

Sustainability

• Currently buying ‘green’ or ‘ethical’ is a motivator - with the expectation of payback

• But this will eventually become a hygiene factor

• Sustainability is shifting to the core of business – e.g. Starbucks goes fair trade

• Mainstream confusion over ethical labelling

• Where do you draw the line?

• Difficult to separate social & environmental benefits

The divided consumer

AnchoringAnchoring

• Spiritual anchoring in times of turbulence and change

• Stabilising in a place of peace & trust

• Looking at the larger picture in which circumstances sit

• Reaching back to our spiritual roots

• Reaction to digital lives – desire for pragmatism and peace

• Opportunity for products and brands that alleviate anxiety/fears

source WGSN, photo by jpc101 on flickr

Simple pleasuresSimple pleasures

• Frustrated, slightly worn down consumers, needing cheap release

• Open to good, positive ideas for future

• Me time, family time, quality time

• Enjoying life

photo by penmachine on flickr

• Asking customers to decide and/or donate

• Assisting customers in smart, generous, relevant ways to make life more convenient

• Perkonomics – perks & privileges to satisfy need for status and/or convenience

• Tryvertising – end users, not influencers, product sampling & experiential

GenerosityGenerosity

source trendwatching.com, photos by jennmae on flickr and Waitrose

Common sense and

good service

Using technology to understand our quirks

Technology can create distance (e.g. email)Online practical guides

Personalised search

Value vs. costGenuine service Empowering employeesBringing a sense of worth to item

fashion

Democratisation of luxury

but disappearing middle ground

discount luxury

Democratisation of luxury

• According to the Future Foundation, 63% of us would rather buy one beautifully made item than lots of cheaper items

natural

make & do

functional

sustainable

recycled

simple

creative

imaginative

Fickleness going out of fashion

New luxury =

high end, quality, durable, improving

over timeimages from Howies and RussellDavies

•Buy less,

wear more

•Capsule

wardrobes

•Selective

shopping

•Key pieces

•Updating and

embellishing

•Quality over

bargains

•Provenance?

•Textile

waste?

Buying less but

better

I am my

own

fashion

editor

Storytelling

40% of all products sold online by 2020 (WGSN)

food

Key food trends

Health(ier)

Convenience

Indulgent

Provenance

Value

Political

consumerism

Meaningful

consumption –

provenance,

home baking

Buying from

people, not

companies

Word of Mouth,

grassroots

photos by dominiccampbell and rossendalewadey on flickr

Shopping for change

Provena

nce

growin

g

in n

ew

(old

)

direct

ion

s

Food miles vs. fair trade

Growing/foraging own food

Cutting out the middleman / closer to the producer

Quick (technology) as well as slow (old skills) cooking

images by sandyaustin on flickr and shropshires.com

Connecting the kitchen with the garden

• Compost goes into garden

• Produce from garden/allotment comes into kitchen

• 44% of settled suburban dwellers grow or plan to grow their own vegetables (future foundation)

• Rooftop gardens and shared courtyards in urban areas

• Gardens as outdoor rooms

photo by folkbird on flickr

society

New ways of working

• Expectations raised• Collaboration• Learning – digital natives and digital immigrants• Flexibility - 12M of us potentially working from

home by 2012 at least once a week (LSN global)

• Respect for the individual• Network IS the workplace

"We are preparing students for jobs that don't yet exist, using technology that has not yet been invented, in order to solve problems that we don't even know are

problems.“- Karl Fisch

Community volunteers

• Predicted resurgence

• More active retired

• London 2012 volunteer programme – encourages local volunteering before and after event

photo by scottishgovernment on flickr

so, what does this all mean?

• More young and old elderly

• Shifts in household size – smaller and larger

• Super loyal and savvy shoppers

• Need to cater for digital natives and digital immigrants

• Social is becoming part of all media streams

– allows groups with shared purposes

• Cross channel purchasing

so, what does this all mean?• The new luxury:

– Beautifully made– Hand crafted– Long lasting– High quality– Connecting with the producer

• Sustainability– Shifting to the core of business, but becoming hygiene factor– More ethical evangelists– Everyone ‘doing their bit’ (but don’t question them)– Loyalists want to get involved, reward with Perkonomics

Finally - look out for the wildcard!

• is the world is cooling, not warming?

• What if the internet was disabled?

• Could mankind invent a new energy source comparable to oil?

Many thanks to the following for their contributions:

• Andrew http://joymachine.typepad.com/northern_planner/

• Rob www.ad-pit.com

• Charles www.charlesfrith.com

• Neil http://www.neilperkin.typepad.com/

• Paul http://paulmallett.wordpress.com/

Creative Commons applies to all linked photos, other images and this document as a whole

all data as at November 2009

written / collated by Gemma Teed @ Brahm

photo by travelinlibrarian on flickr