2020 TRS Pre-Survey Meeting Presentation …...Country Total New Total New Total Active Serious,...
43
Transcript of 2020 TRS Pre-Survey Meeting Presentation …...Country Total New Total New Total Active Serious,...
2
•
•
•
•
COVID-19Its impact on global and regional economic growth
Robert WillockDirector, MENAThe Economist Corporate Network
March 2020
4
2020: already a bit of a ratty year?
5
And then…..
6
Latest infection and death rates (10/3)
Source: Worldometers.info
Country Total New Total New Total Active Serious, Cases/
Cases Cases Deaths Deaths Recovere Cases Critical 1M pop
China 80,761 26 3,136 17 60,106 17,519 4,794 56.1
Italy 9,172 463 724 7,985 733 151.7
S. Korea 7,513 35 54 1 247 7,212 36 146.5
Iran 7,161 237 2,394 4,530 85.3
France 1,412 30 12 1,370 66 21.6
Spain 1,231 30 32 1,169 11 26.3
Germany 1,224 2 18 1,204 9 14.6
USA 729 25 27 1 15 687 8 2.2
Japan 543 13 10 1 86 447 33 4.3
Switzerland 374 2 3 369 43.2
Bahrain 110 1 22 88 64.6
Iraq 71 7 3 61 1.8
Egypt 59 1 1 57 0.6
UAE 59 12 47 2 6
Kuwait 69 4 1 68 3 16.2
Lebanon 41 1 40 3 6
Saudi Arabia 20 1 19 0.6
Oman 18 9 9 3.5
Qatar 18 18 6.2
Total: 114,562 200 4,028 20 64,268 46,266 5,771 14.7
7
Tourism flows and death rates suggest
Covid-19 is being under-reported
8
China is going back to workBut the recovery in business activity has been staggered
9
What can governments do and why?Contain, delay, research, mitigate
10
Market reactionStock prices, bond yields and oil in freefall
US$34
US$58
11
ScenariosAs of March 6th
Scenario Containment Economic impact Return to normal
OptimisticEffective
Regional
<20% infection
Concentrated in Q2
Sharp rebound
2 months to peak, 4
months for BAU
BaselineFails
Country response guided by GHSI
Becomes a seasonal disease
Global economy slows to
1.9% but recession
avoided
Recovery in 2H as situation
improves and stimulus
measures work
Pessimistic
P2P transmission widespread
20-50% of pop infected
Severe restrictions on
travel, trade slows,
shortages
Global slowdown
Global economy recovers
in 2021
Nightmare
Large scale outbreaks
Public health systems overwhelmed
3-5% mortality rate
50% of global pop infected
Pop self quarantines
Economic activity grinds
to a halt
Global supply chains
breakdown, Mid-2021
recovery
12
G20 economies’ growth downgradesReal terms; annual averages
Real GDP growth (% in
2020)Optimistic
Baseline
scenarioPessimistic
Argentina -1.4 -2 -2.7
Italy 0.1 0 -0.2
Japan 0.3 0.1 -0.2
Germany 0.7 0.5 0.1
France 0.9 0.6 0.4
Mexico 0.9 0.7 0.2
Saudi Arabia 1.5 0.7 -0.5
South Africa 1.5 0.8 -0.7
UK 1 0.8 0.3
Canada 1.8 1.4 1
Australia 1.6 1.5 1.3
Rep. of Korea 1.8 1.5 0.5
Brazil 1.9 1.6 0.5
US 1.8 1.6 1.2
Russia 1.8 1.7 0.9
Turkey 4 3.5 2.4
China 5.6 4.5 2.5
Indonesia 5 4.5 3.5
India 5 4.9 4.7
MENA 1.8 1.7 1.4
Global growth (MER) 2.2 1.9 1.4
Nightmare ?
15
16
17
18
19
20
22
23
24
26
27
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
SURVEY PARTICIPATION – TRS (# OF ORGANIZATIONS)MANAGED SURVEYS
104
233
44 3865
468
111
83
178
101
128
68
483
552
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2017 2018 2019
28
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
29
30
•
•
•
•
31
32
33
34
35
36
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
37
38
39
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
40
–
–
–https://www.imercer.com/content/europe-events.aspx
42
