2020 JISEA Presenter Profile: Samantha Bench Reese · 2020 JISEA Presenter Profile: Samantha Bench...

JISEA—Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis 1

2020 JISEA Presenter Profile: Samantha Bench Reese

Samantha is a senior analyst at the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL). She puts research problems in context of economic tradeoffs and analytically shows technology potential through supply-chain analysis, trade-flow mapping, market research, and building bottom-up cost models. Before NREL, she transitioned products from R&D to volume manufacturing. Her background is in mechanical and electrical engineering. She has an M.S. (Yale) and B.S. (Caltech) in Engineering & Applied Science.

2020 Virtual JISEA Meeting on Power Systems and Industry & Agriculture

April 9, 2020LED Lighting: A Global EnterpriseSamantha Reese


Project Goal

“Columbia Lighting : Products : Lensed Troffers : LJT.” Accessed March 24, 2016. http://www.columbialighting.com/products/ljt.

• Focused on integrated luminaires using a 2x2 troffer as example: – Understand manufacturing costs and value-add along the supply chain– Investigate trade flows

• How can R&D investments in a product manufactured not domestically benefit a domestic economy


Motivation for Analysis: Energy Savings

• The DOE SSL program conservatively forecasts that LED lighting sales (based on lumen-hours) will increase from approximately 3% in 2013 to about 48% in 2020, and 88% in 2035

• This results in 261 terawatt-hours (TWh) in site electricity savings annually, a 40% reduction

• If SSL Program’s R&D priorities and milestones are achieved, the total 2035 annual energy savings would increase to 75%,

Source: DOE SSL Program, " “Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Applications September 2016 -energysavingsforecast16_0.pdf.” Accessed November 7, 2016. http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/10/f33/energysavingsforecast16_0.pdf.

Bardsley, Norman, Stephen Bland, Monica Hansen, Lisa Pattison, Morgan Pattison, Kelsey Stober, and Mary Yamada. May 2015. Solid-State Lighting R&D Plan . DOE/EE-1228. DOE Solid-State Lighting Program, Building Technologies Office, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D. C., 2015. http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/06/f22/ssl_rd-plan_may2015_0.pdf


2014 2020 Growth General Lighting 52% 70% 17%LCD TVs and Monitors 17% 7% -10%Signs and Large Displays 8% 7% -2%Cell Phones 9% 6% -3%Automotive Lighting 3% 3% 0%Projectors 1% 3% 2%Notebooks & Tablets 7% 3% -4%Personal Lighting 1% 1% 0%Other Displays 2% 1% -1%

Project Goal: Importance of LED die/packages

• 2014 was the year general lighting accounted for over 50% LED revenue– Lighting needs will drive future growth and innovation

• Commercial lights account for greatest energy use

Sources:Mukish, Pars, and Eric Virey. 2014. LED Packaging Technology and Market Trends 2014. Lyon, France: Yole DéveloppementPopping the Charts: Strategies Unlimited Unveils SSL Market Data (MAGAZINE) - LEDs.” Accessed May 11, 2016. http://www.ledsmagazine.com/articles/print/volume-13/issue-4/features/markets/popping-the-charts-strategies-unlimited-unveils-ssl-market-data.html. DOE Solid-State Lighting Program “2010 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization” (January 2012)


Simplified Luminaire Value Chain

Raw Materials or Precursors

Wafers /Substrate

LED Chip LED Packages Luminaire

Simplified to illustrate components directly related to the luminaire. Many other components of the value chain also exist. These will be accounted for as high level cost inputs, but their manufacturing costs will not be modeled in detail.


Global Supply Chain


Manufacturing and Capacity (2015)

Raw Material, Substrate, Die, & Package

Source:Reese, S. B., K. Horowitz, M. Mann, and T. Remo. "Research note: LED lighting–A global enterprise." Lighting Research & Technology (2020): 1477153520901757.

Mukish, Pars, and Eric Virey. 2014. LED Packaging Technology and Market Trends 2014. Lyon, France: Yole Développement.


Die and Substrate: Capacity & Production (2015)

% 2015World

Substrate Market

(based on revenue)

% 2015 World Die

Market

2015 Die Capacity

UtilizationChina 22% 38.3% 60%Japan 19% 15.2% 90%South Korea 17% 16.8% 71%Taiwan 37% 22.9% 83%United States 1% 5.2% 94%ROW 4% 1.6% 77%

Source: Mukish, Pars, and Eric Virey. 2014. LED Packaging Technology and Market Trends 2014. Lyon, France: Yole Développement.


Trade Flow- Cold Roll Coil Steel Trade (2015)

Source: Reese, S. B., K. Horowitz, M. Mann, and T. Remo. "Research note: LED lighting–A global enterprise." Lighting Research & Technology (2020): 1477153520901757.

World Steel Dynamics

• Cold Roll Coil Steel is globally traded without any single dominate source

Summary in Metric Tons

Interactive Chart

https://www.manufacturingcleanenergy.org/ssl/crs.php


Trade Flow- Die/Packages (2015)

• Considerable trade between countries that don’t actually produce either die or packages– Skews the trade

data to make it appear more product is produced that actually occurs

Country Imports Exports

LED die/package trade flow

United States $1.4B $1.9B China $8.8B $4.3B Germany $1.0B $1.2B Japan $766M $3.3B Malaysia $434M $2.3B Mexico $492M $18M

Rest of World $2.8B $716MSingapore $1.4B $31M

South Korea$1.4B $1.6B

Taiwan $1.0B $4.3B Thailand $482M $296M


Die/Package trade flow (includes all LEDs, not limited to those used for lighting), 2015 global summary, in USD www.trademap.org

Interactive Chart

http://www.trademap.org/

https://www.manufacturingcleanenergy.org/ssl/package-die.php


Trade Flow- All Luminaires (2015)(Both LED and Traditional)

• Trade codes are not yet sophisticated enough to differentiate whether they are integrated LED lights or traditional light housings

• China dominates the trade of luminaires

Country Imports Exports

Luminaires trade flow

United States $3.9B $365M Australia $453M $9MAustria $405M $412M Canada $611M $256N China $33M $7.2B France $704M $221M

Germany$1.1B $917M

Italy $318M $584M

Japan$342M $11M

Mexico $203M $1.4BRest of World $5.1B $2.1B


Luminaire trade flow (including both LED and traditional luminaires, 2015 global summary, in USD Data from: www.trademap.org

Interactive Chart

http://www.trademap.org/

https://www.manufacturingcleanenergy.org/ssl/luminaire.php


Trade Flow- U.S. Luminaires (2015)


Luminaire trade flow (including both LED and traditional luminaires, 2015 global summary, in USD

Navigant Research Market Data: Residential Energy Efficient Lighting and Lighting Controls Incandescent, Halogen, Fluorescent, and LED Luminaires and Lamps and Intelligent Lighting Controls: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts Published 3 Q 2016

• According to Navigant Research the luminaire market was $17.3 billion

• United States imported $3.9 billion in luminaires

• The United States therefore manufactured domestically ~$13 billion in lighting products– 77% of total revenue sold

Interactive Chart

https://www.manufacturingcleanenergy.org/ssl/luminaire.php


Bottom-Up Cost Modeling


Regional Manufacturing Costs• Bottom-up modeling

– Models the effect of core country factors:• Labor rates• Electricity prices• Effective corporate tax rates

– Assumes the same knowledge/capability of firms in each country, and the same risk associated with firms in each country

– Assumes all equipment is fully purchased new– Same cost of debt and equity, D/E ratio– Same production volumes, yields, and wafer diameter

• Wafer model assumes 100% capacity utilization – No subsidies

• MSP is the minimum sustainable price that a company must sell its product for in order to pay back the capital and operating expenses during the plant lifetime


Value Add Comparison-Modeled MSP Prices

• Navigant Research indicates the 2015 luminaire market was $17.3 billion

• 2015 trade data shows the United States imported $3.9 billion in luminaires

• The United States therefore manufactured domestically ~$13 billion in lighting products

• The high value piece of the chain is dominated by domestic production– 77% of total revenue sold



LED Luminaire Cost and Time to reach Golden, CO

• Assumes 40ft container

• #408 2’x2’ troffers per container

• Ship reaches closest U.S. port– Truck shipping from

the port


Cost/Time Tradeoff

• Once shipping is accounted for only:– China– India– Taiwanstill cheaper

• Still significant time to reach Golden, CO


Conclusion

• General lighting is projected to consume 70% of packaged LEDs in 2020

• Advances in LED technology incentivize luminaire updates• LED technology is rapidly evolving thus long shipping times are

undesirable• The cumulative result is that LED integrated luminaires reduce

the energy needed for lighting and currently have a value chain that allows for domestic manufacturing benefiting the domestic economy


Thank youNREL/PR-6A50-76557

This work was authored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for SustainableEnergy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Fundingprovided by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy BuildingTechnology Office Solid State Lighting Program and the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA).The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S.Government. The U.S. Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication,acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license topublish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Governmentpurposes.

2020 JISEA Presenter Profile: Samantha Bench Reese · 2020 JISEA Presenter Profile: Samantha Bench...

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