2020 Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook
Transcript of 2020 Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook
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2020 Boeing Pilot & Technician Outlook
Tom Wagner | Senior Manager of Maintenance TrainingNovember 10, 2020
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Pilot and Technician Outlook methodology
Crew
requirements
Regulatory
requirements
Operator
business models
Aircraft
utilization
Aircraft Market
Outlook
Pilot and Technician Outlook Methodology
2020 – 2039
Pilot & Technician
Outlook
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Commercial aviation dramatically impacted by global pandemic
Passenger flights
~50%of normal
Passenger traffic
~25%of normal
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Varied recovery paths across regions so far
SOURCES: Weekly level of passenger operations through Week 38 (9/13 - 9/19) FlightRadar24, BR&T Europe, Boeing
Normalized based on 1/12-18 operations
North
AmericaLatin
America
AfricaEurope
(incl. Central Asia)
Middle
East
Other
Asia PacificChina World
27% 80% 33% 60% 44% 35% 55% 54%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Sep
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Sep
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Sep
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Sep
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Sep
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Sep
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Sep
Ma
r
Ma
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Ju
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Sep
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Domestic markets leading the recovery
August Domestic August International
49%of 2019
12%of 2019
SOURCE: IATA
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Key themes
Resilienceof air
travel demand
Recruitmentto support
attrition replacement
and fleet growth
Transformationto enable
better training outcomes
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Aviation proven resilient over and over again
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Actual Traffic, RPKs Scenario Trend
RP
Ks (
trill
ion
s)
Market has returned to
trend within 2-3 years
of all major shocksRPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers
SOURCES: ICAO scheduled traffic through 1999 / 2000-2019E IATA stats / 2020F IATA December 2019 Copyright © 2020 Boeing. All rights reserved. | PTO2020 ROLLOUT | 10NOV20
9/11 event~3 Years
Global financial crisis~2 Years
COVID-19 event
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$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
Mill
ion
s
Maintenance Spend Linear (Maintenance Spend)
Direct
Ma
inte
nance S
pe
nd
(M
illio
ns U
SD
)
Maintenance demand will rebound
9/11 event~3 Years
Global financial crisis~2 Years
SOURCE: U.S. DOT Form 41 Copyright © 2020 Boeing. All rights reserved. | PTO2020 ROLLOUT | 10NOV20
Ongoing maintenance
required for parked
airplanesTrend
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Technician retirements expected to surge
33% of U.S. aircraft
mechanics are over the
age of 60SOURCE: ATEC 2019-2020 Pipeline Report, FAA Airmen Certification Branch Copyright © 2020 Boeing. All rights reserved. | PTO2020 ROLLOUT | 10NOV20
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Commercial airplane demand continues to grow
Fleet by region
Forecast period: 2020-2039
*Does not include China
Asia Pacific*
North America
Europe
Middle East
Latin America
Russia/Central Asia
Africa
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2019 2039
21%
3%2%6%
7%
20%
21%
AsiaPacific*
NorthAmerica
Europe
MiddleEast
LatinAmerica
Russia &Central Asia Africa
New airplane deliveries by region
43,11025,900
48,400
20%China
China
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After 9/11 & SARS(5-year average)
After GreatFinancial Crisis(5-year average)
"Average" times
44%
56%
48%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
CMO 2019 CMO 2020 -10 year
CMO 2020 -20 year
Shocks accelerate fleet retirements and replacement
Average annual fleet
retirement rates
Replacement as share
of deliveries
2-3%
~4%
4-5%
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Training will undergo a transformation
Fleet modernization will impact training
requirements
Technology enabling analytics, predictive
maintenance
Rapid shift to online learning due to COVID-
related restrictions
2020-2039
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Summary…
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